politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the new age of despair in British Brexit politics
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the new age of despair in British Brexit politics
For the past two and a half weeks I have been semi detached from British politics being on holiday on the West Coast of the United States. I didn’t take my laptop and my main means of finding out what was happening was with my phone.
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"Anyone injecting a bit of energy and cracking the whip in No 10 and Whitehall would be better than May" ... No. The nutters hold the cards and this is a fight to the death.
The Spectator podcast is worth a listen, imo.
Varoufakis: "The tory party has been taken over by radicals"
Last June, the b*stards came back from the dead.
What would do for May I think is if she is unable to seal a deal with the EU.
On that front progress is being made.
But ultimately she may need Labour votes to pass a deal.
If it had been taken over by radicals - the Tories would have a consistent position and we would be heading for WTO rules full steam ahead.
The problem as I see it is the radicals have acquired a veto.
And Boris, yes he's a clown. But I always thought a pretty bright one.
David Davis was the one I really respected. A hard working, detail oriented, guy, who'd had a successful career outside politics in both the army and business. A man who'd done a pretty good job as Chief Whip, and was organisationally very strong. But right now, he seems like a man completely lost. The timing of serving Article 50 was our biggest trump card. And we could always have left the EU through the repeal of the European Communities Act. Instead, we appear to have flounced around, with Ms May randomly overruling her ministers, and with little preparation done.
The EU is not a particularly competent organisation, by and large. (If it was, we probably wouldn't have voted to leave it.) But from that day in 2016, they have prepared hard for Brexit. They have decided what's important to them, what they want, and they have stuck ruthlessly to it.
Why wasn't this all war gamed before the serving of Article 50? Why weren't the position papers ready?Why do we find ourselves trapped between the promises of politicians to businesses like Nissan, and political realities?
Leaving was always going to be difficult. But - like Cyclefree - I despair of the people carrying it out. And I despair of their "Shout loudly, but carry absolutely no stick whatsoever" approach.
Is it time for a change? Yes.
But it can't be Boris, or David Davis that takes over. It needs someone new, someone smart, and someone unsullied by the failures of the last year.
Kwasi Kwarteng?
I think you mean international trade not DFID for Fox.
As for new leadership - pinning hopes on someone totally untested doesn’t seem wise.
I think Hunt or Gove would at least be prepared to take tough decisions and accept downsides to Brexit.
Indeed so ... Ladbrokes' odds of 11/10 on LaMay leaving office during 2018 looks like real value. Something quite remarkable in her favour would need to happen for he to survive for another 12 months as PM, whereas in fact her position appears to weaken by the day.
She must be hating every minute of it and the strain on someone, not in the very best of health must be enormous.
I'd expect that she already has a date in mind, or more likely an event pencilled in for her departure, failing which I think it more than likely, say a 75%+ probability, that someone will make the decision for her sooner rather than later. My guess remains that she'll have gone by Easter.
And on logging in, the Vanilla page includes a "new discussion" button -- am I supposed to see that?
The hard brexit project is deeply radical. It's a kindof year zeroism. A conservative anarchism.
They've engineered a situation where anything other than a cold hard brexit is treachery.
It's an incredible coup for them and a disaster for the country.
But they don’t have the votes for hard Brexit - not yet at least.
I think you’re right though that the price to be paid for a soft Brexit is not going to look very appealing to the public.
The public may feel differently however once the economic impact of hard Brexit is realised.
Not that it bothers me much.
I'm currently going for the much more generously priced Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt but potentially it's quite a large field, especially if one considers that a currently unknown figure might just conceivably emerge from the pack.
It would be interesting to learn who OGH considers is in with a shout (as well as who in his opinion is not).
Off topic, Robert the Vanilla quote button is definitely bust. Multiple browsers, platforms and OSes. Started around 21:30GMT.
Still, it's good to see the late-dawning realisation of some Leavers about the current state of play. They're still scrabbling around with the idea that this is somehow salvageable, which is sad and sweet.
There has to be acknowledged failure of Brexit as it has been pursued before Britain can move on.
Ironically, Leavers' best hope is Brussels. As I pointed out months ago, if the EU is forced to own the incoherence in London, it is forced to come up with a better deal if it wants one. Does it want one enough? I guess we're going to see.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/01/everything-is-negotiable-how-the-election-result-may-have-improved-britains-negotiating-position-in-the-brexit-talks/
The final paragraph has aged well.
Perhaps he doesn't fancy the poisoned chalice that is Brexit?
On Jerusalem I expect a resurgence of anti-Semitism in the Labour party.
May is failing badly but there is no-one who looks remotely more credible amongst her top team who could take over. The Conservatives are failing badly, yet no opposition party is sufficiently credible to capitalise or offer a coherent alternative plan. Until the politicians realise they will have to throw the whole matter back to the people, to rectify the mistake we have made, I fear that things are just going to flounder and drift.
Unclear as to how a currently divided nation could solve the current impasse. There are problems with May's approach but this mostly reflects the reality of a divided party, a hostile media, a still smarting EU and some genuinely difficult issues to resolve.
A fortnight's R&R over Christmas (relatively speaking) might concentrate minds.
Because our political class (moderate leavers as well as remainers) have never come to terms with the result of the referendum. They still think they are playing a game of domestic politics seeking to get one over their political rivals.
I don't see any prospect of the nation uniting behind Brexit. The best we can hope for is the ongoing political chaos slowly builds a majority for an alternative path.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/238044/The-administration-of-the-June-2017-UK-general-election.pdf
Electoral Commission Report out - minor problems in Stoke and Plymouth, wonder if there are any other gems tucked away?
Indeed ... the media is bound to pick up on this and should it be discovered that he is still actively involved in advising TM, the word toast, of the burnt variety, would spring to mind.
One might equally suggest gently that the Daily Record and those keen to quote it have their own agenda.
Are negotiations going so badly?
If you judge by the yardstick of what Brexiteers said/expected - then obviously.
But if you judge by a more realistic measure, then I would say May hasn't done too badly.
It was always very ambitious to untangle ourselves from the EU and also agree a trade deal in 2 years.
Were it not for the DUP/May's disastrous election result, the divorce bill issue would be dealt with and the Irish border question satisfactorily resolved for the parties that matter. We would now be discussing a trade deal with a 2 year transition period.
This in spite of the fact that a significant chunk of her party - indeed her Cabinet - are not on the same page when it comes to the political realities.
I still think there is a very good chance we will come away with a deal - albeit one that is much inferior to what we currently have. In a sense that will be a triumph for May given how weak a position she is in and that what was promised by Brexit was not realistic.
I think she'd have gone already if this was the case. She's remarkably resilient in the face of adversity. I wish Cameron had been so.
If we ask nicely the EU would grant us a years A50 extension while we get our act together. Brexit is increasingly looking a terminal event for Britain's international credibility. We are going to be eaten alive by other countries trade negotiators after they have seen how useless our dealings with the EU have been.
Syrizia look competent negotiators in comparison.
There speaks a remainer methinks!
@felix It looks that way because the likely replacements will all be worse. Resilience isn't the right word. But she is responsible enough not to abandon office and create an even worse mess.
Until now it appeared that when the crunch came she could deliver the Cabinet and the party to such a scenario. Ironically, it is the gross incompetence of Davis in particular which might undermine her. If he, Boris and Fox (who has become every bit as peripheral as he deserves) lose the confidence of the Brexiteers on the back benches led by the Mogg she will fail.
This is the Remoaners (of which, sadly, OGH is one) having a go at May as they do from time to time when they sense she's weak.
Meanwhile, a deal is almost done, and HMG is winning all the votes on the Brexit bill in the Commons.
@NickCohen4
"The party of business is threatening businesses. The party of national security is weakening Britain. The party of the union is endangering the union. Not sure how the Tories survive Brexit."
Equally there is absolutely no chance of the nation uniting behind a decision to abandon Brexit as you seem to think should happen. Such a scenario is a pipe dream - which would rapidly be proved to be a nightmare.
While I am here can I just ask why on Earth A50 was triggered without any assessment being done on the various exit options? No business would act like that. I have a feeling that no one wanted to see those lest it went against their thinking so they just ploughed on regardless and clueless.
I'm surprised by what an easy time the government is having in the Commons.
that weakness. (para 2-66).
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/238044/The-administration-of-the-June-2017-UK-general-election.pdf
From what I read I see that EC flag similar concerns in 2011, but all is well etc.
The impact assessments should have been done before the referendum vote. Electors would then have had some idea what they were voting for.
As it was, the referendum offered a blank cheque, and that is what Leavers now have. It doesn't matter what the impact, the Government has to deliver Brexit, regardless of consequences.
Whether this is a sensible way to run a country is another matter but it is where we are at.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/238044/The-administration-of-the-June-2017-UK-general-election.pdf
Glad to see someone still imposing discipline on site.
(Quote not working for me either..)
As if there was a version of Brexit that could be.
A true statesman or woman would be able to save the country from such a disaster. The consequences do matter, it's incredible (if true) that the present government hasn't bothered to find out what they might be.
Robert, that is the most desperate post I have ever seen from you.
Why don't you just man up, and admit you were wrong - and that Brexit has turned into the appalling f*ck up it was always likely to be?
It will be interesting to see how this goes for them.
When Mrs T went chasing after new support, at least she had some big policies like Council house sales and tell-Sid style privatisations, that put some £ in their pockets. What is May offering the C2s of Mansfield?
And do you have such a Statesman in mind? The only one who comes remotely near, imo, is Kenneth Clarke, but age aside my Tory friends tell me he is 'unacceptable'.
Not sure why Statemanship should be unacceptable, but it's their Party and they would know better than me.
Another one who completely misunderstands Mrs May's sense of duty. She made a promise to the electors of Maidenhead, and unlike previous male PMs will not shirk from it. Look where it got them?
Absolutely.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article171348516/Fuer-Martin-Schulz-schlaegt-die-Stunde-der-Wahrheit.html
SPD to decide on coalition today
To me, Hammond would be the logical choice, but he too seems to be 'unacceptable' which I think tells you more about the Party than the bloke.
I would normally agree on Liam Fox, and obviously he hasn't delivered on trade deals (but to be fair he can't really at the moment).
However I spoke to a friend last night who commented how much more proactive the Embassies have become on trade matters since Brexit. Whether that's Fox or Johnson I don't know, but my friend finds it very helpful
This has already been done. 60 roll-overs have been agreed (per former trade minister Mark Price and confirmed by Greg Hands)
"And the good news?" I asked
"Well there are good opportunities elsewhere" He said.
"Like Europe?" I suggested
"Yes"
She would be right. From her point of view, it can't get worse. Her Party cannot get rid of her, for the obvious reason. The Opposition wouldn't want to get rid of her even if it could, which right now it can't.
And she can look the electorate straight in the eye and say 'Well this is what you voted for.'
If this is true, it is a bit strange, because surely if we don't get an FTA that is sufficient to address the NI border it means no deal, and therefore any concession made at present is irrelevant as it will never form part of an agreement. So how would option C ever get activated?
Therefore the suspicion must be that the EU insistence on its insertion is simply to try to pre-judge trade talks - the moment the UK moves on to trade the EU will say that we have to accept alignment before we even start negotiating because we have already promised to otherwise the NI border issue can never be resolved.
Quite clear that the UK should refuse this even if it leads to a breakdown. The concern is that May did not can cannot see the trap being laid right in front of her.
Well. I must admit I prefer my line about it being an age of Honorius and Arcadius all over again, but there we are.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42260308
The DUP will continue to hold their part of the line. Right up to the point where MPs decide - approve the final deal, or sink it and go out WTO terms? Sinking it will be Labour’s decision. Do their MPs REALLY want to own hard Brexit? Approve the deal though, and they have no edge against the Tories on how Brexit pans out.
They will probably abstain en masses at the final deal, having been painted by Brexiteers as cowards and by Remainers as, er, cowards..... defeat from the jaws of victory.
Quote button-wise.
https://twitter.com/jeremycliffe/status/938681015794585600
#Stockbrokers4Socialists
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_assessment
It is very possible for DeExEu to have assessed the impact of Brexit without having conducted an Impact Assessment...