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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn
Picture: Latest Survation Scottish Westminster VI poll translated into seats
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Hard to believe that the Labour leader supporting the English football team isn't going to be a handicap?
Apart possibly from the drop in Tory support, those changes are all well within MOE.
PB: Fair 'n Balanced!
This is the same basic fallacy that some Labour supporters are making at the moment: the larger your poll share, the harder it is to make headway.
Many Corbynistas claim that "it doesn't matter we are level in the polls, last time we were 20 points behind and we will won" (ignoring the fact that, actually, they didn't). To move themselves from 40% to 45% will be much harder than moving from 25% to 40%.
(as an aside, I went to check the wiki page for the vote shares. On the summary layout the Lib Dems are on the second line, alongside the DUP and SF, while the three big parties are on the top line. That must really sting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
TSE - just to let you know I chatted to your friend Karen Bradley last night (about schools, children and the fact that she rat runs down my street). She's surprisingly nice and down to earth for a cabinet minister.
Just four out of a hundred of the Scottish population moving from SNP to Labour leaves the SNP seriously denuded as a Westminster political force. Much more than that and they become the Party of Dundee....
England in with a faint shout, requiring the small matter of 354 to win (which would be their highest fourth innings winning total in history).
Root's decision to bat first seems pretty well vindicated...
"In the last decade, England have been set 350+ to win 15 times. Not only have they never won, they've never got within 100 of the target."
Heh!
I think an AV Thread...... or even better, a PR one...... is indicated.
French worry their school kids are the thickest in Europe
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2017/12/05/01016-20171205ARTFIG00026-lecture-le-niveau-des-ecoliers-francais-ne-cesse-de-baisser.php
however the crux of the article is more about the direction of travel ( down ) than the actual scores
Conversely, I suspect the SNP would be pretty chuffed to finish with twice the seats of the next largest party. The wind is not in their sails at the moment and that would be a good result.
After being in a glacier for a considerable period Scottish politics has been incredibly volatile of late. A change such as that indicated here would be almost dull by comparison to recent times.
For all their faults the DUP are probably one of the hardest set of negotiators in Europe as they have lots more experience and they are quite happy to ignore veryone else's views to get what they want.
Varadkar ignored Kenny's advice and is now on a steep learning curve
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/tone-down-the-rhetoric-to-help-secure-a-deal-kenny-36376054.html
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/937731199518289921
My Betfair account started with a tenner about seven years ago. If Australia lose this match it will have a tenner in it once again.
there's probably more flexibility than people imagine but it isnt going to come out by pushing the locals in to corners and hardening positions. Worse Varadkar has tried the age old tactic of going over the Nordies heads to Westminster and thinking they dont count. He clearly didnt do the sums.
Varadkar can now either stick to his position and force a hard Brexit or quietly back off and let fudge do its work. I'd like to think the latter but time to date has shown he's an eejit
Walesa bag of sand?reduced to quoting a voodoo poll
you can vote in it yourself if that makes you feel better
Its not as if our trade negotiators look up to much.
the British and Irish governements have invited the DUP to negotiate for them. Sinn Fein cant be far behind. This could take decades
He would have to Bolt from this thread.
Incidentally the Aussie batting was pathetic. That scorecard looks like Leicestershire 2nd XI in an extraordinary injury crisis where they can only play bowlers.
Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
I fear England will indeed lose this test but if they can get to 250+ they will give themselves some self belief going forward both with the bat and the ball.
The English press desire to make a thing out of Leonard's place of birth was hilarious, you could just tell how furious they were that no one in Scotland gave a shit about Leonard being honest.
If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU
If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon
If England lose it doesn't matter if they have self belief or not. They will lose the series.
How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?
Mr. NorthWales, hmm.
"“RICH I’m lamenting. I’ve lost my innocence.
CROMWELL You lost that some time ago. If you’ve only just noticed, it can’t have been very important to you.”
Just a brilliant play.
Well, it is all going swimmingly isn't it?
Hear no evil, see....
What are the odds to lay your bet ? You could at least then post without shame.
Quite clearly there was an agreement with the DUP on certain sectoral issues, SPS, Customs processing - issues where the entire UK could agree to align with current EU regulation. The EU went into the meeting with the intention on the table of accepting this, and had signalled this in advance (we know these things are always agreed partly in advance).
Then at the 11th hour, they issue 'leaks' that the agreement is "SM&CU" for NI - something they know is patently untrue and could never be agreed by the DUP. Sky News gets it early and Faisal Isalam interviews a Green MEP, who confirms this. Varadkar then gets his kick in, and Khan and Sturgeon issue their 'Break up the UK' tweets and statements. DUP had no choice but to kill the deal, even though they know that's not what they agreed to nor was presented.
It's the most transparent Divide and Rule tactic possible, yet the press don't question the time line at all.
All the events yesterday suggest the EU's negotiating aim is EURef 2 and a potential reversal, via removing the Tory Govt and working with a rainbow coalition led by Labour.
I voted remain, and regard the case for leave as delusional, but that does not mean I support capitulation. I have a certain amount of sympathy for the Irish government; that does not extend to delegating ours to them.
The Survation independence poll giving No a 6% lead is exactly the same as their final 2014 indyref poll confirming Brexit has made zero difference either way to prospects for Scottish independence.
Why was that?
Pro-EU MP Anna Soubry told journalists outside the Westminster committee room that MPs were “given the impression” that no offer had been forthcoming from the U.K. on regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
She said MPs were told: “Nothing had certainly been agreed, but nothing had been ruled out either.”
“Nobody could want one part of our country to have a different set of rules to another part of our country,” said Soubry, who has called for the government to avoid such trade-offs by keeping the whole of the U.K. inside the single market and the customs union.
https://www.politico.eu/article/arlene-foster-theresa-may-brexit-northern-irelands-dup-derail-theresa-mays-trip-to-brussels
Particularly if we bat through the next session without loss.....
"I have just saved the UK £50 billion" she could say. "Or £100 billion, if you read pb.com threads....."
The EU had all their press conferences lined up in a row but it was only when the text was discussed between Junckers and May that May interupted the lunch and spoke to the DUP. It is fair to assume that she saw the dangers and post the DUP call stopped the deal
But it does not mean that we should applaud the behaviour of the EU.
But I'd suggest playing politics with phrases like 'The Orange Order' is very, very silly.
But I suspect it will be sorted. There’ll be a new form of words and the Orange Order will sign off on the basis that the alternative is worse. We should not lose sight of the general trajectory - we’re heading to a deal that will be to the softer end of the prism. And that is good news.
@PolhomeEditor: Former Brexit minister David Jones says the phrase “regulatory alignment” should not be included in any deal. What a mess.
https://twitter.com/EddieBarnes23/status/934775502593839104
Fine words, Ed. Sadly, not Labour policy...
@Maomentum_: Clear now that Tory Brexit is causing economic and political instability and that is why we in @UKLabour continue to fully support it.
It's plain that the DUP's concerns are shared by many Conservatives.
Also...the Irish government of a leaking a draft text of the agreement, branding the move “propaganda for a United Ireland.”