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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The most accurate pollster at the general election gives Labour an 8% lead a majority of 10
Tonight’s @Survation poll.LAB 45% (+1) CON 37% (-1) LD 6% (-1) UKIP 4% (NC) SNP 3% (NC) GRE 1%. Changes since Oct. Fieldwork Thurs/Fri. pic.twitter.com/ijJ1cIWusB
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Especially as they have a real chance of being in Government.
This is a bit of an outlier, but on the other hand from the gold standard.
Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/937072515431718912
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=38&LAB=44&LIB=6&UKIP=4&Green=1&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
His dramatic intervention comes as details can be revealed of a vicious power struggle between moderates and leftwing forces in Momentum and the Unite union that now threatens to split the ruling national executive committee (NEC) and reopen party divisions.
The row, over the selection of Labour’s parliamentary candidate in the marginal seat of Watford, has led local party officials to launch an official complaint to the NEC after they were ordered to place a Momentum-backed senior official of Unite on their final selection shortlist, days after having rejected him at interview.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/02/labour-faces-subversion-momentum-far-left-roy-hattersley-watford-byelection
Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.
There wasn't any porn found on the DPM's computer. It was a fabrication by two bent coppers, disgracefully spread by the state broadcaster. The so called evidence was obtained, retained, and disseminated outside of the law by bent cops with a grudge, and we have no way of knowing how it came to be in the first place. We ought to ignore it.
Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?
Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%
Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
Leave 48%
Remain 52%
@Survation
I won't start worrying until it's at least 55-45 with different pollsters for a month.
Even then, I doubt that would be enough for a U-turn.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/937096614354841600
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Final-18-June-Mos-EU-poll-Tables-part-1.pdf
51/49 to remain.
No one is changing their minds. Leave would win again.
Lord Bassam, Labour’s Chief Whip in the Lords, admitted that he had been wrong to claim tens of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money after The Mail on Sunday investigated his travel expenses.
He faces further questions over another £260,000 ‘second home’ allowance that he has pocketed since 2010 – despite not having one.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5140039/Jeremy-Corbyn-aid-embroiled-major-expenses-scandal.html
If you really think Corbyn will blow an 8% lead you are letting your liathing of the Messiah blind you.
How many times have you underestimated Jezza so far??
@foxinsoxuk I think it’s a bit of both. Women seem more inclined to be Remainers and perhaps we are more likely to be socially liberal. Working mums may well be feeling the effects of austerity in a way that their mothers aren’t (thus a lot older women still sticking with the Tories).
Of course, if Boris and Gove do not resign we are probably looking at JRM being leader by mid next year.
LD voters back paying £50 billion to secure a trade deal by 53% to 27%, UKIP voters strongly back paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal by 76% to 14%.
http://survation.com/labour-extends-polling-lead-8-points-conservatives/
.....What's happened to the days when the same newspaper had to pay considerable damages to Liberace for a similar libel describing him as
"…a winking, sniggering, snuggling, chromium-plated, scent-impregnated, luminous, quivering, giggling, fruit-flavoured, mincing, ice-covered heap of mother love".
Now this doesn't mean that the EU won't play silly buggers. Of course they will. It's in their interests to string things out as long as possible before agreeing. That's always been the case.
The country is ambivalent about Brexit and wants it to be over with as few fights as possible.
Please can there be some minimum standards for posts.
Johnny Mercer or Jeremy Hunt.
Part 1: the 1979 Election
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09dlr8z/turning-points-unscripted-reflections-by-steve-richards-1-1979-election
Good night, all
We are not getting a frictionless EEA style deal, we are getting a CETA deal, and I for one am fine with that, as long as that deal is extended to include services. But the EU's plan is to offer us a CETA deal but to exclude services, to insist on regulatory harmony (see NI) and to insist on ECJ jurisdiction on trade. No FTA includes regulatory harmony (it is based on mutual equivalence), nor would it include submission to a foreign Court. The EU will be delighted with a CETA deal as it gives them tariff free access to the UK without conceding services in return.
For all these reasons, no deal will be far preferable. But our Government is determined to sell us out.
My guess is that the EU will be happy for tarrif free access for goods as long as we follow their rules.
You are correct about Tory voters though. Many on the Hard Brexit wing will probably sit on their hands rather than vote for May, Davis or Johnson. And what's left of the Tory Remainers are ebbing away day by day. Rebranding itself as the party of Brexit was one of the dumbest things the party's ever done.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09gz5nz
If we agree an FTA where we follow the EUs rules, then we simply give away all the benefits of leaving the SM and the EU. Which is exactly what the EU aim to do.
The UK HAS NO NEED of an FTA to cover goods. There is no mutual benefit in this case. Unless the FTA covers services, there is absolutely no benefit to the UK in signing it.
It was the British people who voted for Brexit, if anything the Tory losses since June have been mainly of Leavers to UKIP and Labour as they now see the Tories as not pro Brexit enough, hence the detail of the Survation poll shows June Tory voters narrowly oppose paying the EU £50 billion for a FTA as I posted earlier but current Tory voters narrowly support paying the EU £50 billion for a trade deal.
Would have thought that would be the key issue of the day.
Most Labour voters are very patriotic and, of course, the 52% was not made up of just Tories.
The polling is clearly showing that the public as a whole think the EU are being unreasonable and think May is being weak for backing down. People may accept paying cash for a trade deal, but that is not what is being agreed, nor is it the extent of the sellout.
The backlash against the Brexit sellout will be national and may very well sweep May out of No 10 in very short order.
If, on the other hand, May does walk away from negotiations in December (eg her choice) the Tories will be 10% ahead by the New Year.
Corbyn doesn't have to do anything; just sit there and let people watch the Tories steer us toward the economic cliff.
The EU does not know (and probably neither do we). Given the likes of Hammond have talked openly about undercutting them...
As the Commission have said - we are looking at how to manage a divergence of rules - which is a different challenge.
The Dan Hannan talk of a bonfire of red tape is I suspect very unhelpful.
What Gove is doing to maintain standards is probably much better to reassure our trading partners.
With the exception of one poll, Survation showed consistent Remain leads in the months leading up to the Brexit vote. This is effectively no change all.