politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Toxic Theresa’s ratings hit rock bottom with Ipsos MORI

First? But Labour's ratings are mostly worse.

Which should be fertile territory for an alternative.

Although still within MOE, I note that both the main parties are now polling sub-40%

When will labour be seen as more fit to govern? The Tories have been trying to achieve crossover there, I assume, given their shambling. And seems like the budget is a big, bland neutral one.

Speaking of Dave, he's given an interview to the FT.

https://www.ft.com/content/7e16fd9e-d673-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

Mother tucker.

Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mother tucker.

Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

Lock herhim up

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mother tucker.

Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

Lock herhim up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv6R76pHVCI

IanB2 said:

Toxic Theresa versus Corrosive Corbyn. How blessed we are in our leaders.

Could be worse. We could be American.

IanB2 said:

Toxic Theresa versus Corrosive Corbyn. How blessed we are in our leaders.

Don’t forget Cable. I mean, er, *tries to think of an appropriate alliterative* Coprolite Cable?

Peter_the_Punter said:

IanB2 said:

Toxic Theresa versus Corrosive Corbyn. How blessed we are in our leaders.

Could be worse. We could be American.

Small mercies.

Pulpstar said:

Lock herhim up

Sounds like he's only going to get a very short prison sentence, when he could have been facing ten years or more. That means he's given info on someone bigly important.

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mother tucker.

Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

Does that mean he hasn't thrown Jared under a bus?

Who knows. But I doubt he'd have pleaded guilty unless he was either facing an overwhelming mountain of evidence, or he'd agreed a plea bargain in return for information. That second scenario could well involve Jared and a bus.

On-topic (sort of), this week's blog is about divisions in history:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/divisions-in-history.html

Richard_Nabavi said:

Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

+1

I see the Honduran Presidential election count is still ongoing, many days later. Never a happy time to have such delays, even when innocent of wrongdoing. What I don’t get is why they released partial figures which showed the challenger several points ahead, and of course he’s now saying fraud now the word is he might just be pipped by the incumbent, who has caught up. Maybe he would have alleged fraud anyway if he lost, but if it was going to take so long, why release any partials at all, given it would only give whoever ‘benefits’ as the full amounts come in something to rile up supporters with.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Are the Scots, Welsh, and Irish all looking forward to the World Cup draw this afternoon as much as the English.

You're missing this:

*innocent face*

FWIW, I still think that the odds on Trump going before the end of his first term shouldn't be any shorter than 3/1. It is bloody hard impeaching a president, particularly where the evidence chain is indirect.

Makes that state visit less likely though.

felix said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.

No, but they are in a bad way and even if they dont fall further theres not much reason to think they will rise higher either.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speaking of Dave, he's given an interview to the FT.

https://www.ft.com/content/7e16fd9e-d673-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

This is why I liked the guy,he should have stayed on and tried to clear up the mess he left.

Mr. Johnno, wish he was still an MP, but I can see why he resigned as PM.

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speaking of Dave, he's given an interview to the FT.

https://www.ft.com/content/7e16fd9e-d673-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

This is why I liked the guy,he should have stayed on and tried to clear up the mess he left.

You're saying Brexit is a mess?

Interesting

What is Trump accused of now?

He's certainly guilty of being uncouth, but how is seeking to influence the American election illegal? Isn't that what the Democrats were seeking to do? Not very well as it happened.

Morris_Dancer said:

On-topic (sort of), this week's blog is about divisions in history:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/divisions-in-history.html

The end bit about the greater dislike is directly on-topic.

anothernick said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

Given that the opposition is led by a commie apologiser for terrorism who wants to disarm the UK, counts Hamas and the IRA amongst his friends, intends to nationalise all private property, turn the UK into Venezuela and lacks the confidence of most of his MPs it is a miracle that Labour is polling so well.

They should be storming ahead, and they're not.

I'd be twitching if I were (a) compos mentes and (b) Labour supporting.

anothernick said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

Given that the opposition is led by a commie apologiser for terrorism who wants to disarm the UK, counts Hamas and the IRA amongst his friends, intends to nationalise all private property, turn the UK into Venezuela and lacks the confidence of most of his MPs it is a miracle that Labour is polling so well.

Yes, I agree entirely.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Are the Scots, Welsh, and Irish all looking forward to the World Cup draw this afternoon as much as the English.

World Cup you say?
We're concentrating on the Ashes at the moment.

The Ashes? Doesn't count when our vice-captain isn't playing.

To be honest I think the Tartan Army have dodged a bullet, I suspect being a visiting fan in Russia next year isn't going to be fun.

It would have been an interesting test of the not entirely accurate 'Scottish fans are universally loved' meme.

'See, even these neo-Fascist, quasi criminal, paramilitary, Russki ultras think we're great.'

Richard_Nabavi said:

The most surprising point to me in this IpsosMORI poll is that Chancellor Hammond gets such good ratings compared with an (admittedly hypothetical) Chancellor Gove, and even more so that the disparity is even greater amongst Conservative supporters.

Maybe we shouldn't write off those Hammond for PM betting slips quite yet.

Does that say more about Hammond being popular, or Gove just being truly radioactively unpopular??

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speaking of Dave, he's given an interview to the FT.

https://www.ft.com/content/7e16fd9e-d673-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

This is why I liked the guy,he should have stayed on and tried to clear up the mess he left.

You're saying Brexit is a mess?

Interesting

Only by the EU holding things up and the remain media/supporters ;-)

Watching to much sky news

Lol

Ishmael_Z said:

Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

kle4 said:

felix said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.

No, but they are in a bad way and even if they dont fall further theres not much reason to think they will rise higher either.

The historical trend on IPSOS, with one or two exceptions, is that once you're done, you're done.

david_herdson said:

anothernick said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

Given that the opposition is led by a commie apologiser for terrorism who wants to disarm the UK, counts Hamas and the IRA amongst his friends, intends to nationalise all private property, turn the UK into Venezuela and lacks the confidence of most of his MPs it is a miracle that Labour is polling so well.

True. Although the real laugh is that with a government in considerable difficulties on the one hand, and an opposition that would rather be a student protest group than a government on the other, the Lib Dems are still in single figures.

Their part in the coalition has left them unable to capitalise on the travails of the other parties. They are damned by the left as proponents of austerity and by the right as traitors on Brexit. There is no clear way forward for them while Vince "tuition fees" Cable remains leader.

Tykejohnno said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Johnno, wish he was still an MP, but I can see why he resigned as PM.

I can Mr dancer but I could have seen a Cameron that came out fighting and who would have respected the result.

The same people who routinely refer to TCO made that idea a complete fantasy.

It is of course true that the Conservative Leave cohort is stuffed full of inept ninnies, but it's a bit rich to detonate a bomb and then expect the grown-ups to clear up the wreckage.

... and also I think in reference to the head to head

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/politicalmonitornovember2017-171201140532/95/political-monitor-november-2017-24-638.jpg?cb=1512137773

Not as good as Osborne, is the gist of it.

Mr. kle4, hope you like it.

I visited with a Chinese chap who, to my great concern, pushed into a massive queue right in front of an armed soldier. Luckily, nobody cared.

BannedInParis said:

... and also I think in reference to the head to head

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/politicalmonitornovember2017-171201140532/95/political-monitor-november-2017-24-638.jpg?cb=1512137773

Not as good as Osborne, is the gist of it.

Notable there that the figure for whoever is the Labour Shadow Chancellor hardly varies - it looks as though 30% of respondents will always prefer the Labour alternative.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andrew said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

If you read anything about Tony Bloom, who for a number of years has been the world best football bettor, his margins are tiny....and this is a bloke who has a who firm of over 150 data analysts, computer programmers etc working for him.

Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

The take away from this, betting on football is an absolute mugs game.

The 15:00 result just gone at Newbury is a reminder of why I stick mainly to politics ! Beating football seems very hard to me, the volumes almost ensure perfectly efficient markets.

Mr. Sandpit, hmm. Bit discouraging but useful information nevertheless.

I could always return to tennis. The problems I have with that is that Betfair changed the way the past head-to-heads is presented (sounds minor but it makes things a pain in the arse to check), and the, ahem, irregular nature of some results.

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andrew said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

If you read anything about Tony Bloom, who for a number of years has been the world best football bettor, his margins are tiny....and this is a bloke who has a who firm of over 150 data analysts, computer programmers etc working for him.

Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

The take away from this, betting on football is an absolute mugs game.

The 15:00 result just gone at Newbury is a reminder of why I stick mainly to politics ! Beating football seems very hard to me, the volumes almost ensure perfectly efficient markets.

There were loopholes in the recent past - 2-1 and 2-0 wins in international football being somewhat mispriced but as said, the sheer volume of money and means has ironed out the quirks.

On the Chancellor issue.

Hammond is a steady hand who has managed to produce a budget that didn't fall apart by the end of the afternoon - unlike Osborne of course.

Gove is an unknown as far as financial issues go but who is known to have taken radical solutions in the departments he has managed.

I am not at all surprised that sentiment favours Hammond.

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.

You don’t think Theresa May’s worst ever ratings aren’t toxic ?

If they were the Tories would be polling in the 20/30% range. You view everything through your rather bizarre love affair with GO and hostility to Brexit. Result is hyperbole.

People used to say that to me prior to June 8th.

I was right on Mrs May.

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andrew said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

If you read anything about Tony Bloom, who for a number of years has been the world best football bettor, his margins are tiny....and this is a bloke who has a who firm of over 150 data analysts, computer programmers etc working for him.

Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

The take away from this, betting on football is an absolute mugs game.

The 15:00 result just gone at Newbury is a reminder of why I stick mainly to politics ! Beating football seems very hard to me, the volumes almost ensure perfectly efficient markets.

I didn't back it, but Beer Goggles was plainy overpriced at 40/1. It's a classic case of Improver versus Overhyped Star(s).

These re sports betting, you are more likely to have an edge* in playing DFS than going straight up against the highly efficient sports betting market.

* However, for major US sports like baseball, again some individuals have thrown huge amount of time and resources at the game and made it very difficult to compete.

Corbyn's brother's take on the Trump tweet controversy:

https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/936403291474448384

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, DFS?

Daily Fantasy Sports.

Mr. Urquhart, ah, cheers.

A senior Anglican minister has been criticised for saying people should pray for Prince George to be gay to help the Church of England recognise same-sex marriage.

The Very Reverend Kelvin Holdsworth wrote a blog post urging people to pray him "to be blessed one day with the love of a fine young gentleman".

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42192706

Bizarre.

Mr. Z, ha, I wouldn't describe this season's overall result as steak.

I am grateful for your, and others', response, though. It's proven quite enlightening. To be honest, I'd never considered statistical efficiency when betting on F1. I just go for things I think are value (and then get annoyed when the only car to break down is the only car I've backed...).

FIFA world rankings really are nonsense.

Andrew said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

Yep - on the upside, they can bet tens of thousands, or often hundreds of thousands, on every match. In other sports you can have much higher returns, but can struggle to get more than a few hundred down.

Only because he does it in Far East through a big network of agents. He wouldn't be able to do it here.

https://twitter.com/jack_blanchard_/status/936613293296373760