politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : November 23rd 2017
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : November 23rd 2017
Perth City South on Perth and Kinross (Con defence)
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We don't have one with China though do we? The world's most populace nation and most significantly growing economy.
I really can't work out why, but I'm sure I can see the cogs.
'Revolutionary' does involve a shouty pitch - I wonder.
(I only point this out to be in the good books of my other half!)
A better analogy might be our need to chew our own arm off because we've been surgically attached, human centipede like, to some 27 headed beast without our consent.
The clip will work well enough for Jezza. And I am no fan of his.
Personally, I would have calmly focused on the awful growth projections following seven years of the "long term economic plan" and gently ridiculed him and his party. Then I would have finished with the angry bit about more extra money for Brexit than for the NHS.
But he'll need to back that up with ideas on how to reform things.
Its ironic that the Conservatives will have pissed so much borrowed money away on vanity projects and got so many people addicted to government handouts that there will be little scope left for Labour to promise spending which adds up.
Australia needs a purchaser for their primary products.
If you don't believe in free trade then our major trade imbalance with Europe would show we lose so should leave the deal with the EU.
Either way I fail to see why we should abandon our hopes of a deal with America in order to cling to just Europe? Why should we be Little Europeans when there's a big world out there?
https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/934180068783525888
Perhaps it is not the EU holding us back.
Seems like a lot of cake and eating it with you. If that's the case why would it hold us back to leave the EU?
What if SeanT doesn't see a program about Gobekli Tepe (see Ch5 now) and go on to become Tom Knox.
How does PB develop with a failed SeanT commenting here ?
https://medium.com/basic-income/the-real-story-of-automation-beginning-with-one-simple-chart-8b95f9bad71b
It's witty, concise, well-drawn and contains an element of truth. Of course if you don't like the politics, it's unlikely to appeal, but as a cartoon it's pretty good.
Interesting that it was done by a Canadian for a canadian audience. Not sure that Canadians would have any dog in the fight.
Free Trade is an expression of geopolitical dominance, where the powerful marginalise the weak.
We benefited by the Royal Navy forcing our way into makets, not something we will be able to do so again.
https://grrrgraphics.com/abandon-ship-brexit-great-britains-escape-from-the-eu/
The average tariff across all countries is 2.6%. For the US it is 2.7%.
Suppose we did a FTA with the US to reduce the 2.6% tariff to zero. Would that benefit us as much as the 15% depreciation of sterling since the EU Ref? It would make relatively little difference.
What matters much more are the standards.
In general, US standards are designed to help producers. You can sell anything unless it is proven to be unsafe. EU standards are designed to help consumers. You can only sell things that are proven to be safe.
We have a choice between the US model and the EU model. I choose the EU model.
He'd still have his bad sex award to fall back on.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/nov/30/books.booksnews1
I've had a lot of bad sex but nobody ever gave me an award for it...
In general your claim is nonsense. The Americans have vigorous testing standards where they're required too, see for example the FDA where it can take a very long time to get drug approval.
The "deficit" is a bit like the P&L. It is an accounting fiction. You can juggle it by putting things off balance sheet (PFI), balancing debt against dubious assets (student loans) and altering definitions (housing association debt). Hammond has pulled his conjuring trick on the deficit by planning to sell billion of RBS shares (at a big loss).
The "balance of payments" on the other hand is like the cash flow statement. It is more difficult to fudge.
Bottom line is - if we hadn't taken our eye off the ball, the balance of payments and trade deficit (I know they are not identical) would not be in the mess that they are. They are much less sustainable than the deficit.
Edit: Ah, I think I misunderstood your comment.
The budget deficit is mainly a fiction but that's all we focus on.
That was the point I was making. I should have said "budget deficit" instead of "deficit" to avoid confusion with "trade deficit".
Either way isn't that the point? The KBG had a good record on human rights where they were required to.
The issue of trade deals is no longer the tariffs (in general). It is the standards. We have been warned that we have to choose between US standards or EU standards if we want a trade deal with the US. Choosing US standards will damage our trade with the EU. The EU accounts for 40% of our exports, the US 15%.
A big problem with US standards is their food standards. They have conducted an enormous experiment on their population with GM food when the long term effects were unknown. Luckily it seems to be OK but it was a risk for the population. They are taking a similar risk with the massive overuse of corn syrup and also growth hormones in their meat. It is showing up in a big obesity problem and a three year lower life expectancy compared with Europe.
In real life the people who voted for Brexit don't have any interest in free trade. Its was all about a) stopping immigration and b) having control of our own laws. Most people dont have any idea of how global trade works.They don't know and don't care about free trade. There is no mandate for free trade, most people would probably vote for protectionism anyway if it the government were stupid enough to put free trade to a referendum.
The deficit is quite real though in that it adds to our debt, and our debt is something we'll have to pay interest on tomorrow and every day until it's paid off. If your accounting fiction doesn't charge you then maybe it is a fiction. We will pay every penny of our very real debt obligations.
Don't worry about the paywall - it's just a writeup of this;
https://www.cml.org.uk/documents/20170630-cml-missing-movers-research-report/7738-cml-missing-movers-a4-jc-v4-3-.pdf
In short: the housing ladder is broken.
The Bank of England buys them using money electronically created (Quantitive Easing).
The Government pays the BOE £0.5bn interest a year.
The BOE pays this £0.5bn a year back to the Treasury.
That's the magic money tree. That's the reality of our "very real debt obligations". It's a game. A fiction. Money is created. It's not in any way the same as a household budget.
The 2nd pic is great.
The tory client vote have the party by the balls.
That would see 21 SNP seats go to Labour on a swing of 4.5% (but it is a subsample). Though given the UK wide figures would give Labour 318 seats and the Tories 281 seats, Labour would still be 8 short of an overall majority even then and therefore either have to rely on LD or SNP confidence and supply.
Bear in mind also full Westminster Scottish polls have shown less movement to Labour in Scotland than that subsample and Yougov today post Budget had the Labour lead falling by 1% from the 3% lead it had earlier in the week to 2%.
Not sure what could have been done realistically given China/others focus on keeping currency weak.
On the narrative shift - I think it reflected a view in economics that the balance of payments was actually not that important.
In Scotland today Yougov had the SNP doing much better in the subsample with the SNP on 38% Labour 24% Tories 25%.
That would see a result of Labour 285 Tories 286 UK wide and the SNP win back 5 Labour Scottish seats.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hne3n1xg7y/TimesResults_171123_VI_BudgetQs.pdf