politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The echoes of 2008? A cartoon first published in 2008 and it c

TGOHF said:

rottenborough said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

"serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.

Don't confuse lobbying with predictions. Our food supplies do not depend on a free-trade agreement with the European Union.

The worst that could happen - if, for instance, there was zero notice of no deal - is that this could require some radical changes to supermarket's existing supply and business arrangements that might cause short-term disruption.

It would also be a big opportunity for others.

So the greenhouses of Spain and Holland will still be able to send fresh produce on a just-in-time supply chain basis without any hinderance from trade issues or customs hold ups or transactions costs?

You sure about that?

Which of the two governments do you think will be keener to cause a delay - Spain or the Uk ?

Neither might be keen, but will have no choice due to a set of circumstances that we are heading towards thanks to the driverless government.

FF43 said:

RoyalBlue said:

You think it's a nonsense. Why?

1) we stay in the Single Market, so trade disruption will be minimal compared to other conceivable Brexits

2) we're out of the CAP

3) we're out of the CFP

4) we can legally discriminate between British citizens and all other nationalities e.g. for welfare purposes

5) we will have our own seat in forums like the WTO

It's not exactly what I want, but it's better than the status quo.

Why do I think the EEA is nonsense? Because it gives us a large part, but by no means all, of the benefits of the EU with obligations that are almost the same. But it will be on a take it or leave it, do as we tell you, basis. In that case, why not take all the benefits of EU membership and have a real say in what happens to you?

That's not how the Single Market works. If you read Richard North's work, you'd realise that the EU is often a passthrough for global regulation, rather than its source. Leaving allows us to take our place in those forums where much of the regulation originates (e.g. UNECE) rather than rely on the common representation of an EU figure who may not care overly for our interests.

We enjoy partial benefits in exchange for partial compliance. Not ideal, but hardly 'nonsense'.

TGOHF said:

So For future reference when will this apocalypse triggered by the earth shattering event of leaving a trading cartel happen ?

You should know. You made it up

SeanT said:

But life will get better

Much better for these folk

https://twitter.com/aureliebonal/status/933821648557494274

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

jayfdee said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This makes me count my blessings.

I'm also glad I was raised by parents who view debt as the eighth deadliest sin.

Me too. I am relieved that I can ride out Brexit with impunity, and have sorted my offspring as well, and sorted my finance.
Are we at tipping point yet re Brexit?
I am a remainer, and the self inflicted damage we are receiving will only grow. Yes I am old, a northerner, time to come out and declare.

Not tipping point yet.

Leavers knew there'd be job losses once Brexit happens but they still voted for it.

I suspect tipping point will be a long post Brexit slump (and the rest of the EU is booming), people will think they know what the causation is.

The rest of the EU is not booming.

Recent IMF predictions for EU 2017 GDP growth

Netherlands: 2.2%
Germany: 1.8%
UK: 1.6%
France: 1.5%
Italy: 1.1%

The problem is laziness and complacency in most European countries, regardless of whether they're in the EU or the Euro. That's why productivity is not increasing. But most people prefer to blame their governments rather than themselves.

It's not laziness or complacency. It's just the rest of the world finally catching up with the West, and enjoying all the techno and industrial advantages we take for granted. A Bangladeshi metal basher is just as good as a Birkenhead metal basher, there is no difference. So why should the latter earn ten times the former?!

Read across for any number of professions/vocations.

The rest of the world has caught up with the West. We are no longer an army of muskets facing tribes with spears. So our growth slows as theirs powers ahead. Note that America now has a predicted growth rate of about 1.8% per annum. Barely better than the UK.

This sounds bad for us, but it is great for humanity as a whole: global poverty levels are plummeting. We should stop whingeing. We aren't exactly starving, and across Asia and parts of Africa BILLIONS are being lifted from desperate poverty. At last.

Spot on.

(But don't forget we're also getting f*cked by demographics.)

rottenborough said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

"serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.

Don't confuse lobbying with predictions. Our food supplies do not depend on a free-trade agreement with the European Union.

The worst that could happen - if, for instance, there was zero notice of no deal - is that this could require some radical changes to supermarket's existing supply and business arrangements that might cause short-term disruption.

It would also be a big opportunity for others.

So the greenhouses of Spain and Holland will still be able to send fresh produce on a just-in-time supply chain basis without any hinderance from trade issues or customs hold ups or transactions costs?

You sure about that?

Let's take a worst case - no deal under WTO rules: there would be extra customs exports/imports checks at European/British ports (let's say 12 hours total, extra) and there would be additional import tariffs maybe (let's say 10% on everything).

That means supermarkets need to either raise prices slightly, or order slightly more on slightly longer lead times to keep their shelves supplied, and buy a few more lorries and vans. Or source more from overseas suppliers (like they already do) from Africa or Asia, as the UK disapplies CAP, or strikes other deals with them. Check the sticker on your Sainsbury's avocado.

Either way there is plenty of fresh produce from all over the world hitting the shelves, just a slightly higher price from the EU, which may then be undercut from others importing from outside the EU.

This is lobbying. The quantity of the bullshit is in direct proportion to the level of effort required to refute it.

No-one is going to go hungry.

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bbchelenalee/status/933824004175081472

The Independent must be losing some serious market share of its eighteen readers to The New European.

We may have just doubled the number of people who will see their front page. What a public service this site is.

SeanT said:

nielh said:

SeanT said:

nielh said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

jayfdee said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This makes me count my blessings.

I'm also glad I was raised by parents who view debt as the eighth deadliest sin.

.

people will think they know what the causation is.

The rest of the EU is not booming.

Recent IMF predictions for EU 2017 GDP growth

Netherlands: 2.2%
Germany: 1.8%
UK: 1.6%
France: 1.5%
Italy: 1.1%

I meant post Brexit, if we're doing badly and they are doing well then some people will think it is the fault of Brexit.

I fully concede it could be other things, but I think people will blame Brexit.

Meh. And if we dorked for a supersoft Brexit. That was achievable. Probably not now.

The problem w cars on the road it'll all be worth it.

Much of

Germany has all this waiting, btw, the recent advance of the AFD is just the early sign.

I think that's true, but it doesn't bode well for our long term future. In about 15 years we've gone from the idea that the world is following our example and moving towards the embrace of free markets and liberal democracy, to the (probably flawed) idea that we can build a fortress around ourselves and maintain our own living standards whilst not investing in our army etc, and whilst surrounded by totalitarian regimes at a time when there is increasing competition for resources. If I'm right were really fucked.

We're not fucked. The world improves. But it will not be run by us. It will be run by China, then the USA, India, and the EU

Personally I think, like many nutters, that we should unite with Canada, Oz and NZ. A liberal union under the crown.

But life will get better

Just China and India.

Casino_Royale said:

(let's say 12 hours total, extra)

LOL

ROFL

ROFLMAO

PMSL

No, but seriously...

OchEye said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

"serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.

Don't confuse lobbying with predictions. Our food supplies do not depend on a free-trade agreement with the European Union.

The worst that could happen - if, for instance, there was zero notice of no deal - is that this could require some radical changes to supermarket's existing supply and business arrangements that might cause short-term disruption.

It would also be a big opportunity for others.

And pigs will be flying in to save our bacon....

Hard border. Required if we are a 3rd party. Our trucks held in endless queue by the French. Huge cost/delay. Meaning our trucks can't get back here with produce as stuck trying to head out. Which means we run out of things quickly. As we have 3 days of fresh food here.

RoyalBlue said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

steve_garner said:

Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

Starvation, planes grounded, deep recession, collapsed pound, food banks for all, and third world status at the very least according to the remain camp

I’m going to stock up with some montagnolo just in case. And maybe some Chablis to go with it. Otherwise I think we’ll be fine.

Don't forget the tinned artichoke hearts to accompany.

I’ll pass on that. But montagnolo is a seriously good cheese. As rich as Camembert but with some bite.

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

I don't see any problems with the food chain. We get JIT deliveries from all over the world today, including produce from Africa and the Americas in 36 hours.

His belief is that during the period between leaving and signing fresh trade agreements, we will need extensive procedures for checking food at the borders, and there is little sign of preparation for them. He says the worst-case recourse is to open the border to imports from 3rd parties without quality checks, which would be unprecedented.

This isn't from me - I absolutely have little idea of what's needed or whether we've prepared for it.

archer101au said:

Will May even survive until Christmas? The word seems to be that she will back down and offer the EU 40bn without an explicit link to a trade agreement, or even a clear link to talks, nor an agreement that this is the final amount. This is the exact opposite of what Boris and Gove apparently agreed.

If she backs this up with a concession on ECJ jurisdiction then she is finished. The great Brexit betrayal is just beginning...

The kind of Brexiteers who foam at the mouth at any kind of concession are not well represented in the Commons. May will be fine.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/

I read your piece. Stripping away all the arguments and rhetoric to get to the essential, Brexit is a disconnection. That's the opposite of having a baby.

You were onto something with Brexit being the Reformation while the EU is the Catholic Church however.

I think it's a mix of the two, actually. In brute psychosocial terms - how it will affect the psyche of the UK - it is "having a baby"

Ideologically, yes, it is very akin to the Reformation. Sometimes spookily so.

Incidentally (you may not be surprised) I think having kids is generally a splendid move (it's certainly the best "decision") I ever made) and the Reformation was an even better idea: the absolute making of England, then Britain, then the British Empire.

I'm in two minds. I love the old English religion, hate the corruption of the Catholic Church.

I like the institutional independence of the English church from Rome, and it's decidedly English (or British, if you prefer) Elizabethan compromise that set it up in the first place.

Pre-Reformation, England was The Land of the Bells. Our churches were things of wonder and beauty. Yet, the hierarchy made a rotten parody of Christianity. I hate the destruction of images that took place in the Reformation, yet I understand why feelings ran so high.

archer101au said:

Will May even survive until Christmas? The word seems to be that she will back down and offer the EU 40bn without an explicit link to a trade agreement, or even a clear link to talks, nor an agreement that this is the final amount. This is the exact opposite of what Boris and Gove apparently agreed.

If she backs this up with a concession on ECJ jurisdiction then she is finished. The great Brexit betrayal is just beginning...

She is looking stronger now than at any time since that catastrophic election result. Good for at least another 2 years I reckon and I don’t say that with any particular enthusiasm.

Greg Clark getting an applause on QT from Colchester than he wouldn't have got in London.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/

I read your piece. Stripping away all the arguments and rhetoric to get to the essential, Brexit is a disconnection. That's the opposite of having a baby.

You were onto something with Brexit being the Reformation while the EU is the Catholic Church however.

I think it's a mix of the two, actually. In brute psychosocial terms - how it will affect the psyche of the UK - it is "having a baby"

Ideologically, yes, it is very akin to the Reformation. Sometimes spookily so.

Incidentally (you may not be surprised) I think having kids is generally a splendid move (it's certainly the best "decision") I ever made) and the Reformation was an even better idea: the absolute making of England, then Britain, then the British Empire.

I'm in two minds. I love the old English religion, hate the corruption of the Catholic Church.

I like the institutional independence of the English church from Rome, and it's decidedly English (or British, if you prefer) Elizabethan compromise that set it up in the first place.

Pre-Reformation, England was The Land of the Bells. Our churches were things of wonder and beauty. Yet, the hierarchy made a rotten parody of Christianity. I hate the destruction of images that took place in the Reformation, yet I understand why feelings ran so high.

Churches are organisations of people, not temples of idolatry. Graven images do not belong.

RoyalBlue said:

FF43 said:

RoyalBlue said:

FF43 said:

RoyalBlue said:

You think it's a nonsense. Why?

1) we stay in the Single Market, so trade disruption will be minimal compared to other conceivable Brexits

2) we're out of the CAP

3) we're out of the CFP

4) we can legally discriminate between British citizens and all other nationalities e.g. for welfare purposes

5) we will have our own seat in forums like the WTO

It's not exactly what I want, but it's better than the status quo.

Why do I think the EEA is nonsense? Because it gives us a large part, but by no means all, of the benefits of the EU with obligations that are almost the same. But it will be on a take it or leave it, do as we tell you, basis. In that case, why not take all the benefits of EU membership and have a real say in what happens to you?

That's not how the Single Market works. If you read Richard North's work, you'd realise that the EU is often a passthrough for global regulation, rather than its source. Leaving allows us to take our place in those forums where much of the regulation originates (e.g. UNECE) rather than rely on the common representation of an EU figure who may not care overly for our interests.

We enjoy partial benefits in exchange for partial compliance. Not ideal, but hardly 'nonsense'.

Unfortunately not. Partial benefits in exchange for nearly complete compliance (especially when you take our previous opt-outs into account). And as a Remainer, funnily enough, I do care about sovereignty. The EEA doesn't give us any say over what happens to us. Membership also gives us influence in dealing with third parties.

Don't get me wrong. The EEA is the best of the Brexit options and I think the country can live with it, unlike the other options. The lack of say is definitely a problem, though. We're not Norway, which is happy to outsource its foreign relations to third parties

You're just quoting propaganda from the Remain campaign about 'fax democracy'. There's not really much point continuing.

Please read what Richard North has to say on the Norway option.

I don't think I am "just quoting propaganda from the Remain campaign about 'fax democracy' ". Equally I am not trying to convince you of the merits or demerits of an arrangement that I think is doable but highly suboptimal. The lack of say is a problem for me, but more importantly I think it would be a problem for the British generally. Thing is, the problems of the other plausible outcomes are bigger. The EEA is relatively easy and it removes some big headaches (eg Irish border).

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

steve_garner said:

Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

Starvation, planes grounded, deep recession, collapsed pound, food banks for all, and third world status at the very least according to the remain camp

I’m going to stock up with some montagnolo just in case. And maybe some Chablis to go with it. Otherwise I think we’ll be fine.

Maybe a pistol as well just in case

The crescendo of remain noise just now is astonishing and maybe the panic relates to the next few days when TM gives her ultimatum as she is in a win win with it. EU accepts and progress to trade talks or TM leaves with the backing of the majority of the Country

"TM gives her ultimatum" = "TM gives her latest concession"

RoyalBlue said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/

I read your piece. Stripping away all the arguments and rhetoric to get to the essential, Brexit is a disconnection. That's the opposite of having a baby.

You were onto something with Brexit being the Reformation while the EU is the Catholic Church however.

I think it's a mix of the two, actually. In brute psychosocial terms - how it will affect the psyche of the UK - it is "having a baby"

Ideologically, yes, it is very akin to the Reformation. Sometimes spookily so.

Incidentally (you may not be surprised) I think having kids is generally a splendid move (it's certainly the best "decision") I ever made) and the Reformation was an even better idea: the absolute making of England, then Britain, then the British Empire.

I'm in two minds. I love the old English religion, hate the corruption of the Catholic Church.

I like the institutional independence of the English church from Rome, and it's decidedly English (or British, if you prefer) Elizabethan compromise that set it up in the first place.

Pre-Reformation, England was The Land of the Bells. Our churches were things of wonder and beauty. Yet, the hierarchy made a rotten parody of Christianity. I hate the destruction of images that took place in the Reformation, yet I understand why feelings ran so high.

Churches are organisations of people, not temples of idolatry. Graven images do not belong.

There is the small problem of Protestantism being the gateway drug to unbelief...

Like.

DavidL said:

RoyalBlue said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

steve_garner said:

Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

Starvation, planes grounded, deep recession, collapsed pound, food banks for all, and third world status at the very least according to the remain camp

I’m going to stock up with some montagnolo just in case. And maybe some Chablis to go with it. Otherwise I think we’ll be fine.

Don't forget the tinned artichoke hearts to accompany.

I’ll pass on that. But montagnolo is a seriously good cheese. As rich as Camembert but with some bite.

Never mind the Montagnolo, once we are independent again we could resurrect Lymeswold!

archer101au said:

Will May even survive until Christmas? The word seems to be that she will back down and offer the EU 40bn without an explicit link to a trade agreement, or even a clear link to talks, nor an agreement that this is the final amount. This is the exact opposite of what Boris and Gove apparently agreed.

If she backs this up with a concession on ECJ jurisdiction then she is finished. The great Brexit betrayal is just beginning...

Not according to the paper review. The offer is explicit on trade talks and an exchange of letters

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/

I read your piece. Stripping away all the arguments and rhetoric to get to the essential, Brexit is a disconnection. That's the opposite of having a baby.

You were onto something with Brexit being the Reformation while the EU is the Catholic Church however.

I think it's a mix of the two, actually. In brute psychosocial terms - how it will affect the psyche of the UK - it is "having a baby"

Ideologically, yes, it is very akin to the Reformation. Sometimes spookily so.

Incidentally (you may not be surprised) I think having kids is generally a splendid move (it's certainly the best "decision") I ever made) and the Reformation was an even better idea: the absolute making of England, then Britain, then the British Empire.

I'm in two minds. I love the old English religion, hate the corruption of the Catholic Church.

I like the institutional independence of the English church from Rome, and it's decidedly English (or British, if you prefer) Elizabethan compromise that set it up in the first place.

Pre-Reformation, England was The Land of the Bells. Our churches were things of wonder and beauty. Yet, the hierarchy made a rotten parody of Christianity. I hate the destruction of images that took place in the Reformation, yet I understand why feelings ran so high.

Churches are organisations of people, not temples of idolatry. Graven images do not belong.

It's possible to think that change is required, while still regretting the things that get destroyed along the way.

Mortimer said:

Hogan Howe comes across well, too. Better than I was expecting and far better than Lord Rose.

Is that the Lord Rose who thought the bid advantage of being in the EU was that it stopped pay rises for the workers ?

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

steve_garner said:

Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

Starvation, planes grounded, deep recession, collapsed pound, food banks for all, and third world status at the very least according to the remain camp

I’m going to stock up with some montagnolo just in case. And maybe some Chablis to go with it. Otherwise I think we’ll be fine.

Maybe a pistol as well just in case

The crescendo of remain noise just now is astonishing and maybe the panic relates to the next few days when TM gives her ultimatum as she is in a win win with it. EU accepts and progress to trade talks or TM leaves with the backing of the majority of the Country

Nah this is Britain. We should leave that gun nonsense to our American cousins.

The pistol was for single use to the owner

rcs1000 said:

archer101au said:

Will May even survive until Christmas? The word seems to be that she will back down and offer the EU 40bn without an explicit link to a trade agreement, or even a clear link to talks, nor an agreement that this is the final amount. This is the exact opposite of what Boris and Gove apparently agreed.

If she backs this up with a concession on ECJ jurisdiction then she is finished. The great Brexit betrayal is just beginning...

Would this be the "word" that you've just made up, by any chance?

Nothing is decided until everything is decided. There is no "cheque" until everything is sorted.

And while I think we should have pushed harder against EU sequencing, it does change the power dynamic somewhat. Imagine we've agreed to pay (say) €40bn. So, the EU keeps spending in it's own merry way, and it's now six months from Brexit and we say "this trade deal on the table is not enough...", then suddenly they're the people worrying about getting their €40bn.

As an aside, and given its the story you keep pushing, how about a small bet.

If we pay (say) €40bn or more and don't enter into an FTA - or a transition to an FTA - after Brexit day, then I pay you £1,000.

If we pay €40bn, and do, then you pay me just £500.

I'm confident enough to offer you 2-1.

Only a fool wouldn't take it.

(Bet void in the event of no payment.)

Chapeau.

I agree with this; we're currently at our weakest, but money has always been our biggest carrot.

another_richard said:

Mortimer said:

Hogan Howe comes across well, too. Better than I was expecting and far better than Lord Rose.

Is that the Lord Rose who thought the bid advantage of being in the EU was that it stopped pay rises for the workers ?

foxinsoxuk said:

RoyalBlue said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/

I read your piece. Stripping away all the arguments and rhetoric to get to the essential, Brexit is a disconnection. That's the opposite of having a baby.

You were onto something with Brexit being the Reformation while the EU is the Catholic Church however.

I think it's a mix of the two, actually. In brute psychosocial terms - how it will affect the psyche of the UK - it is "having a baby"

Ideologically, yes, it is very akin to the Reformation. Sometimes spookily so.

Incidentally (you may not be surprised) I think having kids is generally a splendid move (it's certainly the best "decision") I ever made) and the Reformation was an even better idea: the absolute making of England, then Britain, then the British Empire.

I'm in two minds. I love the old English religion, hate the corruption of the Catholic Church.

I like the institutional independence of the English church from Rome, and it's decidedly English (or British, if you prefer) Elizabethan compromise that set it up in the first place.

Pre-Reformation, England was The Land of the Bells. Our churches were things of wonder and beauty. Snip

Churches are organisations of people, not temples of idolatry. Graven images do not belong.

There is the small problem of Protestantism being the gateway drug to unbelief...

Not true, Protestantism is booming

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/928520906170871808

Only if you think organised hysteria bears some relation to the theology of Luther, Zwingli and Calvin. I have my doubts.

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/

I read your piece. Stripping away all the arguments and rhetoric to get to the essential, Brexit is a disconnection. That's the opposite of having a baby.

You were onto something with Brexit being the Reformation while the EU is the Catholic Church however.

I think it's a mix of the two, actually. In brute psychosocial terms - how it will affect the psyche of the UK - it is "having a baby"

Ideologically, yes, it is very akin to the Reformation. Sometimes spookily so.

Incidentally (you may not be surprised) I think having kids is generally a splendid move (it's certainly the best "decision") I ever made) and the Reformation was an even better idea: the absolute making of England, then Britain, then the British Empire.

I'm in two minds. I love the old English religion, hate the corruption of the Catholic Church.

I like the institutional independence of the English church from Rome, and it's decidedly English (or British, if you prefer) Elizabethan compromise that set it up in the first place.

Pre-Reformation, England was The Land of the Bells. Our churches were things of wonder and beauty. Yet, the hierarchy made a rotten parody of Christianity. I hate the destruction of images that took place in the Reformation, yet I understand why feelings ran so high.

Churches are organisations of people, not temples of idolatry. Graven images do not belong.

It's possible to think that change is required, while still regretting the things that get destroyed along the way.

Put them in a museum.

Religious art in a museum is like listening to odd movements from symphonies. Fish out of water.

LibDem got 37 votes...

another_richard said:

Are we really back onto food shortages scare stories ???

A look back at the PB pages of 17 months ago will show that the same people were predicting immediate and total economic collapse.

The highlight, IMO, being ***** predicting a disintegration in house prices and then getting somewhat aggravated at the idea that falling house prices would help renters to own their own homes.

Haha, yes I remember the chap who kept changing his username getting very hot under the collar about talking about falling house prices upsetting people with mortgages.

Interesting that the paper review said that London is the most productive City in Europe.

So basically it has failed to spread its prosperity to the regions and hence Brexit

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour hold Parkfield and Oxbridge on Stockton on Tees

Increase or decrease in their vote share

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

steve_garner said:

Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

Starvation, planes grounded, deep recession, collapsed pound, food banks for all, and third world status at the very least according to the remain camp

I’m going to stock up with some montagnolo just in case. And maybe some Chablis to go with it. Otherwise I think we’ll be fine.

Maybe a pistol as well just in case

The crescendo of remain noise just now is astonishing and maybe the panic relates to the next few days when TM gives her ultimatum as she is in a win win with it. EU accepts and progress to trade talks or TM leaves with the backing of the majority of the Country

It has been rather shrill of late, perhaps for the reasons you outline.

There's also been a curious lack of pasted tweets regarding car production and retail sales recently.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour hold Parkfield and Oxbridge on Stockton on Tees

Increase or decrease in their vote share

1.5% swing Con to Lab

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting that the paper review said that London is the most productive City in Europe.

So basically it has failed to spread its prosperity to the regions and hence Brexit

The major reasons our productivity as a nation has stagnated is the decline of the oil and gas industries and financial services. These greatly increased our economy. Neither looks very rosy now.

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour hold Parkfield and Oxbridge on Stockton on Tees

Increase or decrease in their vote share

1.5% swing Con to Lab

Thanks

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/933835643918135297

Mortimer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

LibDem got 37 votes...

'Winning here'

'Whining here'

rcs1000 said:

archer101au said:

Will May even survive until Christmas? The word seems to be that she will back down and offer the EU 40bn without an explicit link to a trade agreement, or even a clear link to talks, nor an agreement that this is the final amount. This is the exact opposite of what Boris and Gove apparently agreed.

If she backs this up with a concession on ECJ jurisdiction then she is finished. The great Brexit betrayal is just beginning...

Would this be the "word" that you've just made up, by any chance?

Nothing is decided until everything is decided. There is no "cheque" until everything is sorted.

And while I think we should have pushed harder against EU sequencing, it does change the power dynamic somewhat. Imagine we've agreed to pay (say) €40bn. So, the EU keeps spending in it's own merry way, and it's now six months from Brexit and we say "this trade deal on the table is not enough...", then suddenly they're the people worrying about getting their €40bn.

As an aside, and given its the story you keep pushing, how about a small bet.

If we pay (say) €40bn or more and don't enter into an FTA - or a transition to an FTA - after Brexit day, then I pay you £1,000.

If we pay €40bn, and do, then you pay me just £500.

I'm confident enough to offer you 2-1.

Only a fool wouldn't take it.

(Bet void in the event of no payment.)

I agree there will be almost certainly be an A50 withdrawal agreement that mentions a preferential trade agreement or partnership agreement. More likely than not we will never get that FTA. So a "transition to an FTA" in the Withdrawal Agreement, but one that gets overtaken by events and never happens.

foxinsoxuk said:

Big swing from UKIP to LD and Lab in WWC Eyres Monsell:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/933835125539864576

Can't really be a "swing" if they don't stand though? More accurately, the Tories didn't pick up many Kippers, and lost some of their own voters.

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

archer101au said:

Will May even survive until Christmas? The word seems to be that she will back down and offer the EU 40bn without an explicit link to a trade agreement, or even a clear link to talks, nor an agreement that this is the final amount. This is the exact opposite of what Boris and Gove apparently agreed.

If she backs this up with a concession on ECJ jurisdiction then she is finished. The great Brexit betrayal is just beginning...

Would this be the "word" that you've just made up, by any chance?

Nothing is decided until everything is decided. There is no "cheque" until everything is sorted.

And while I think we should have pushed harder against EU sequencing, it does change the power dynamic somewhat. Imagine we've agreed to pay (say) €40bn. So, the EU keeps spending in it's own merry way, and it's now six months from Brexit and we say "this trade deal on the table is not enough...", then suddenly they're the people worrying about getting their €40bn.

As an aside, and given its the story you keep pushing, how about a small bet.

If we pay (say) €40bn or more and don't enter into an FTA - or a transition to an FTA - after Brexit day, then I pay you £1,000.

If we pay €40bn, and do, then you pay me just £500.

I'm confident enough to offer you 2-1.

Only a fool wouldn't take it.

(Bet void in the event of no payment.)

I agree there will be almost certainly be an A50 withdrawal agreement that mentions a preferential trade agreement or partnership agreement. More likely than not we will never get that FTA. So a "transition to an FTA" in the Withdrawal Agreement, but one that gets overtaken by events and never happens.

That's one possibility, and that position of purgatory would be the ideal staging post to Scottish independence and Irish reunification.

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

archer101au said:

Will May even survive until Christmas? The word seems to be that she will back down and offer the EU 40bn without an explicit link to a trade agreement, or even a clear link to talks, nor an agreement that this is the final amount. This is the exact opposite of what Boris and Gove apparently agreed.

If she backs this up with a concession on ECJ jurisdiction then she is finished. The great Brexit betrayal is just beginning...

Would this be the "word" that you've just made up, by any chance?

Nothing is decided until everything is decided. There is no "cheque" until everything is sorted.

And while I think we should have pushed harder against EU sequencing, it does change the power dynamic somewhat. Imagine we've agreed to pay (say) €40bn. So, the EU keeps spending in it's own merry way, and it's now six months from Brexit and we say "this trade deal on the table is not enough...", then suddenly they're the people worrying about getting their €40bn.

As an aside, and given its the story you keep pushing, how about a small bet.

If we pay (say) €40bn or more and don't enter into an FTA - or a transition to an FTA - after Brexit day, then I pay you £1,000.

If we pay €40bn, and do, then you pay me just £500.

I'm confident enough to offer you 2-1.

Only a fool wouldn't take it.

(Bet void in the event of no payment.)

I agree there will be almost certainly be an A50 withdrawal agreement that mentions a preferential trade agreement or partnership agreement. More likely than not we will never get that FTA. So a "transition to an FTA" in the Withdrawal Agreement, but one that gets overtaken by events and never happens.

That's one possibility, and that position of purgatory would be the ideal staging post to Scottish independence and Irish reunification.

Back in the real world, all of those are tremendously unlikely.

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

archer101au said:

Will May even survive until Christmas? The word seems to be that she will back down and offer the EU 40bn without an explicit link to a trade agreement, or even a clear link to talks, nor an agreement that this is the final amount. This is the exact opposite of what Boris and Gove apparently agreed.

If she backs this up with a concession on ECJ jurisdiction then she is finished. The great Brexit betrayal is just beginning...

Would this be the "word" that you've just made up, by any chance?

Nothing is decided until everything is decided. There is no "cheque" until everything is sorted.

And while I think we should have pushed harder against EU sequencing, it does change the power dynamic somewhat. Imagine we've agreed to pay (say) €40bn. So, the EU keeps spending in it's own merry way, and it's now six months from Brexit and we say "this trade deal on the table is not enough...", then suddenly they're the people worrying about getting their €40bn.

As an aside, and given its the story you keep pushing, how about a small bet.

If we pay (say) €40bn or more and don't enter into an FTA - or a transition to an FTA - after Brexit day, then I pay you £1,000.

If we pay €40bn, and do, then you pay me just £500.

I'm confident enough to offer you 2-1.

Only a fool wouldn't take it.

(Bet void in the event of no payment.)

I agree there will be almost certainly be an A50 withdrawal agreement that mentions a preferential trade agreement or partnership agreement. More likely than not we will never get that FTA. So a "transition to an FTA" in the Withdrawal Agreement, but one that gets overtaken by events and never happens.

That's one possibility, and that position of purgatory would be the ideal staging post to Scottish independence and Irish reunification.

Back in the real world, all of those are tremendously unlikely.

Indeed. I can't see us getting the outcome that FF43 predicts. Brexit will hit the buffers well before then.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DanSmith said:

Creepy end to Question Time

In what way

Had to be curtailed because a lady in the audience was taken ill.

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DanSmith said:

Creepy end to Question Time

In what way

Had to be curtailed because a lady in the audience was taken ill.

Sorry to hear that