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Opinium for Observer sees almost no movement
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So again the SNP and LDs would hold the balance of power.
Mr Adams said he will not stand for election for the Irish parliament (Dail) at the next election.
*OGH's preferred term when referring to leavers, I believe
I don't know why you keep implying that a) the LDs will hold the balance of power which they won't and b) their support will be needed for a minority Corbyn Government to exist (again, on your own figures, it won't).
I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.
The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-to-pay-400-million-pound-debt-to-iran-soon-iranian-envoy-says/ar-BBF5sTP?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp
And that surely is the big opportunity for Labour and where social media will help: to motivate the estwhile can't be bothered young voters to vote.
However, they did not have the semi-deranged hyper-partisan 14 pages of Daily Mail drivel.
Which was, I would argue, so widely mocked, publicised and farcically over-the-top that it actively backfired.
It is also stretching to say the Guardian supported Corbyn. Labour yes, Corbyn no.
The Only Way Is Up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtSTqGiZnMg
Many of the rural or retired former LibDem voters are now backing the Conservatives.
It could definitely be worse for them. Some would say it should be worse for them. It might well get worse for them. But while it is not definitively hopeless, nor is it definitely hopeful, and I'd say it was tending more the former than the latter myself. There are many dark clouds coming for them (Brexit untangling, a due recession etc)
There are plenty of tech-savvy Conservatives out there, but very few on the creative side who are able or motivated enough to produce that kind of content.
It's not enough to have smart people, which the Conservatives clearly do, it's the ability to create a joined up campaign the way Labour did from registration -> regular engagement -> getting out the vote. Those skills are, unfortunately, generally found among individuals and agencies that are inimical to Conservative views. We exist as individuals but the overall culture is incredibly hostile.
It's hard to hire an ad agency / digital agency / whoever when you can pretty much guarantee 90% of the people working on your account will be hostile to your views.
I worked in agency land for a long time and can say that if you are a Conservative in such circles you keep your head down and don't tell anyone about it. In fact it is one of the reasons I left.
It's not just agencies though, the tech scene is similarly mired in a stifling left-liberal consensus from which openly dissenting can be a career ending move. Look at what Google did to James Damore.
Recruiting the kind of talent required to run a successful campaign is hard when at least 90% of the people with the skills you need are either inimical to your cause or would consider working on it to be a potentially career-ending move.
It is a concern for me because I think social media and digital campaigning in general will be even more important at the next GE and the Conservatives are already a long way behind.
https://twitter.com/alison_mcgovern/status/931970752408113152
https://www.thepaperboy.com/uk/daily-mirror/front-pages-today.cfm?frontpage=50957
Secondly, you'd be unwise to bank on social media staying the same way for ever. It's already evolved and mutated hugely in little over a decade - and all it takes is for Facebook to change its rules or an algorithm and it could be less effective. Plus people change how they use social media - I have a number of friends who have cut right back on Facebook and now only use it as a convenient address book and diary, preferring to stay in touch on Whatsapp for daily chat or gossip.
And the marketing in politics is much less important than what you're selling. You don't have to work very hard to convince people the Tories are malicious, but those people will vote for them anyway if the alternative offered is unconvincing.
Is it the reference to people cheering for the other side? That might be worth some outrage - suggesting people who oppose the present strategy are all doing something wrong - but is there some deeply unpleasant tinge to accurately describing the other side in a negotiation as the other side that I am not seeing, since that is the bit complained about, not the bit about cheering for that side?
Seriously, if the term 'the other side' is outrageous then how are we supposed to refer to parties who are on the converse side of a negotiation?
But what is noticeable is how there has been a shift in spending from people buying things to people spending in restaurants.
@campbellclaret
Leo Varadkar far too kind in saying the UK government hasn’t thought Brexit through. They haven’t thought full stop. Play hardball Leo!!"
I find that bizarre - there's an actual thing to complain about, and the focus is shifted to complain about his terminology, irrelevantly, since even if the Irish are family, they are the other side of the negotiations.
Which as this shows, dilutes the focus on the thing that might actually need complaining about
Utterly fascinating.
Thanks for the tip.
What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.
It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
https://www.facebook.com/reemmemeswithagreatbritishtheme/
https://www.facebook.com/MargaretThatcherMemes/
are all worth a look - If I were at CCHQ I'd hire some of those chaps pronto. Give them a couple of grand every month and the technical support to produce Momentum rapid response style videos.
Are they actually trying to prevent the budget from passing? I simply don't see how that would pass. I'd expect about 25 rebels and the DUP to protest.
For my part I do not think Corbyn is evil, but I do think he would be appreciably worse as a PM than, say, Ed M and Gordon Brown, who I was perfectly relaxed about winning, and I don't think being a good campaigner alters that. Of course, the Tories are hardly painting an attractive reason to vote for them now either, so I might well end up voting LD next time, assuming they actually bother to attempt to win my vote next time (in contrast to their usual efforts they made no attempt this time, focusing successfully on a nearby seat instead).
But you try and tell the young people today that... and they won't believe ya'.
My point is that the Tories cannot simply rely on newspapers to do their work for them. Barely anyone under 50 reads them, and they are simply not trusted anyway.
The Sun may well put a lot into Online. However, non-Sun readers simply will not believe anything they say. Why should they?
Which is why they will have to get creative. And that does not mean paying for lots of ads.
But using a bit of humour and invention wuld not go amiss.
you get the picture, four yorkshireman forever.
I'm just thinking back to my 18th birthday. It was a big deal to go to the local Indian restaurant. Just seems staggering, now.
On the other, the Commission, willing to threaten a hard border. They know full well that they can't settle the Irish border question without explicitly addressing UK-Ire (and by extension UK-EU) trade. That would expose their timetable as a nonsense, and would threaten the divorce bill.
Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
The problem is it's largely shared and 'liked' by those who are already sympathetic. The Tories efforts are pathetic but some of the most shared stuff (which is sometimes fake) is similar to the kind of news right-wing tabloids revel in - political correctness gone mad, feckless migrants etc. That includes actual tabloid stories that get shared, although The Sun initially lost ground due to its paywall they're now pumping their vast resources into online, and you can bet their stuff gets shared as often as a Momentum ad.
Secondly, you'd be unwise to bank on social media staying the same way for ever. It's already evolved and mutated hugely in little over a decade - and all it takes is for Facebook to change its rules or an algorithm and it could be less effective. Plus people change how they use social media - I have a number of friends who have cut right back on Facebook and now only use it as a convenient address book and diary, preferring to stay in touch on Whatsapp for daily chat or gossip.
And the marketing in politics is much less important than what you're selling. You don't have to work very hard to convince people the Tories are malicious, but those people will vote for them anyway if the alternative offered is unconvincing.
https://www.facebook.com/MoggMemes/
https://www.facebook.com/reemmemeswithagreatbritishtheme/
https://www.facebook.com/MargaretThatcherMemes/
are all worth a look - If I were at CCHQ I'd hire some of those chaps pronto. Give them a couple of grand every month and the technical support to produce Momentum rapid response style videos.
@dixiedean
That's the point though isn't it? Momentum didn't HIRE anyone. Therefore they can't be poached for a higher salary.
It was done for free.
If you are hired by CCHQ, you work for CCHQ, and are controlled, directed and at the whim of CCHQ.
And if CCHQ are running a crap campaign, then it doesn't matter how good you are.
Confusing, perhaps?
Now if you had said "I am strongly of the opinion that...." I'd have said fair enough.
One day, perhaps next time, the public will give a party an unassailable majority again so they can do whatever the hell they want, as God intended!
And what part of his hard left programme could Corbyn implement in a hung parliament?
And re Corbyn's 'hard left' programme in the event of a hung parliament - quite a lot of the Labour manifesto could be implemented with, say, SNP and LD support. After all the Tories tend to adopt Labour policies a few years down the road!
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1117/920981-long-read-brexit/
In fact not much on the budget other than speculation
Makes a change
You think the Momentum stuff is paid for by farts and thin air? They are committed volunteers, but there is money behind it.
People cannot refer to 'the other side' because there will be many people who have connections with both? Because that's what the people responding the tweet seem to be suggesting with the outrage.
Which seems to me to be outrage at the wrong part, and being unnecessarily literal. The implication of being a traitor etc, that is something to be outraged at, but that tweet and reaction is making it personal about family, which is not something someone can reasonably prepare for.
It distracts from what might be reasonable criticism, in other words; both sides may be family to her, literally, but other people cannot be expected to debate the issue assuming every personal circumstance about anyone who might read it.