politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the next general election will be in 2022
Options
Comments
-
On what grounds? The Tories are on a significantly higher score than 2012 and most Survation polls have movement from Tory to UKIP since 2017 allowing scope for it to be won back.foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza will have a better lead by Christmas!HYUFD said:
Ed Miliband had bigger leads than that in 2012foxinsoxuk said:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/920626343225815040
Get ready for PM Corbyn!
Indeed on this poll the Tory rating is exactly the same as the last poll0 -
Of course they will.Pulpstar said:
Lol, no way will Europe take us back after a few years of Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.
He might propose it as one of his first acts as PM.0 -
Survation also has Remain ahead 52:48 on the question of how you would vote in a second referendum.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/9206267157386362880 -
Eh? Corbyn doesn't even want to be in the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
Of course they will.Pulpstar said:
Lol, no way will Europe take us back after a few years of Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.
He might propose it as one of his first acts as PM.
No chance of this whatsoever.0 -
Baxterising that new poll still leaves JC short of a majority, both on old and new boundaries. By 5 and 16 respectively. (Leaving Green and UKIP unchanged).0
-
It's slightly misleading not to include the global economic backdrop, no?HYUFD said:
For most of the Coalition years it was not even on a CPI basis and not on an RPI basis pre BrexitJonathanD said:
Wage growth was higher than inflation prior to BrexitHYUFD said:
Wage growth was below inflation even before BrexitJonathanD said:.
If Cameron had won the EuroRef we would be seeing much higher economic growth and wage growth would be higher than inflation rather than being below it. Government income would also be higher meaning spending could be higher and negatives like Universal Credit could be dealt with.HYUFD said:
Instead the Government is borrowing billions more to pay for Brexit, and forcing real term income cuts on workers. Not to mention being so absorbed by Brexit that they don't have time to deal with any of the country's real problems.
https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/uk-real-wags-07-17.png
I am no fan of George Osborne, for he allowed the imbalances in the UK economy to worsen markedly under his watch, but during the coalition years, the British economy, and British real wages did significantly better than those in almost all of our major trading partners.0 -
If Corbyn gets in I expect Sanders and Melenchon may do too on a surge of global socialism.Casino_Royale said:
I might be sending my cousin (who lives in New Brunswick) a stack of £50s to put into a Canadian bank account.TheScreamingEagles said:
Plus they speak French there too.Casino_Royale said:
A country much smaller than ours, its trade dominated by its much larger next-door neighbour, but which still manages to operate its own customs border, immigration control, and regulatory regime, whilst having a great reputation on the global stage, and one of the highest HDI scores in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Starts packing bags for Canada...
No wonder so many want to Canada-entry.
A whole load of people I can insult in their own language.
I'm not actually moving overseas, I'm staying in the UK.
Just moving some assets out there.
I trust him.
In fact probably before the UK given our next general election is not due until after theirs.
I would think only Germany, Canada and maybe Australia would be immune from the populist surge (though apart from Canada 2/3 of those have anti immigration populism too)0 -
No chance, so you'll give me say 100/1 on it happening then?CopperSulphate said:
Eh? Corbyn doesn't even want to be in the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
Of course they will.Pulpstar said:
Lol, no way will Europe take us back after a few years of Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.
He might propose it as one of his first acts as PM.
No chance of this whatsoever.0 -
(Albeit one which has benefited massively from being a commodity exporter.)Casino_Royale said:
A country much smaller than ours, its trade dominated by its much larger next-door neighbour, but which still manages to operate its own customs border, immigration control, and regulatory regime, whilst having a great reputation on the global stage, and one of the highest HDI scores in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Starts packing bags for Canada...
No wonder so many want to Canada-entry.0 -
He won't. Corbyn is a Bennite who has no interest in the EU or the single market which is why he promised at the general election to take us out of both. Soft Brexit would dilute his plans for a socialist UKTheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.0 -
Varoufakis would love Corbyn to be one of the most powerful leaders in the Eurozone.CopperSulphate said:
Eh? Corbyn doesn't even want to be in the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
Of course they will.Pulpstar said:
Lol, no way will Europe take us back after a few years of Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.
He might propose it as one of his first acts as PM.
No chance of this whatsoever.0 -
-
Osborne did well on the unemployment front less well on the wages front (especially when you include the public sector where wages were capped, albeit for fiscally prudent reasons)rcs1000 said:
It's slightly misleading not to include the global economic backdrop, no?HYUFD said:
For most of the Coalition years it was not even on a CPI basis and not on an RPI basis pre BrexitJonathanD said:
Wage growth was higher than inflation prior to BrexitHYUFD said:
Wage growth was below inflation even before BrexitJonathanD said:.
If Cameron had won the EuroRef we would be seeing much higher economic growth and wage growth would be higher than inflation rather than being below it. Government income would also be higher meaning spending could be higher and negatives like Universal Credit could be dealt with.HYUFD said:
Instead the Government is borrowing billions more to pay for Brexit, and forcing real term income cuts on workers. Not to mention being so absorbed by Brexit that they don't have time to deal with any of the country's real problems.
https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/uk-real-wags-07-17.png
I am no fan of George Osborne, for he allowed the imbalances in the UK economy to worsen markedly under his watch, but during the coalition years, the British economy, and British real wages did significantly better than those in almost all of our major trading partners.0 -
" The Swiss bank sent a voluntary questionnaire to employees on Tuesday, asking them to rank Madrid, Frankfurt and Amsterdam by order of preference. Staff wanting to respond to the survey have until the end of this week to do so, according to a person familiar with the matter. "
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/ubs-bankers-to-vote-this-week-on-brexit-moves-201710180 -
According to WB figures our GDP/capita grew by 3% from 2010 to 2016.rcs1000 said:
It's slightly misleading not to include the global economic backdrop, no?
I am no fan of George Osborne, for he allowed the imbalances in the UK economy to worsen markedly under his watch, but during the coalition years, the British economy, and British real wages did significantly better than those in almost all of our major trading partners.
That's not an annual rate, that's over the 6 year period.
By contrast- USA grew by 18%, Germany by 17%.
You're right though that we did much better than France, Italy, Spain etc. who shrunk over that timeframe.
On real wages I think the UK has been one of the worst in the world over Osborne's period as Chancellor.
0 -
-
TheScreamingEagles said:
IIRC They are part of the federal system, so what they do sets precedent for the whole country.Pulpstar said:US law is bloody weird, I don't get how 'district' judges seem to have remit over the entire country.
Not really. That's why one avoids going near Texan courtsTheScreamingEagles said:
IIRC They are part of the federal system, so what they do sets precedent for the whole country.Pulpstar said:US law is bloody weird, I don't get how 'district' judges seem to have remit over the entire country.
0 -
It's one of the Leavers' favourite whines: "there wasn't a manifesto, it's up to the government."RobD said:0 -
I think, if a new leader is going to go to the polls, they have to do so within 3 to 6 months of taking office. They can claim they are seeking their own mandate.
Although some now say Brown was wise to NOT go to the polls in October 2007, I still think he was foolish, as I now think May was foolish to wait until June 2017.
Both Brown and May took office in the summer (2007 and 2016 respectively). Both could've gone for October elections of the same year and taken their polling bounce AND made the case it was for their own mandate. Neither did. Brown never bothered at all, and May left it too late.
It might be that an October 2016 GE would've produced a similar result, but I suspect not. I think May would have just squeeked her majority (possibly an improved one) that she did not manage in June 17.0 -
It's easy to whinge and if one thing Farage and his fellow travellers are good at its whinging. A coalition of complainers is easy to assemble. That they have nothing in common other than their dislike of the other is only evident later.TOPPING said:
It's one of the Leavers' favourite whines: "there wasn't a manifesto, it's up to the government."RobD said:0 -
GDP per capita grew by 3% between 2007 and the second quarter of this year. Since 2010, it's grown by about 10%.rkrkrk said:
According to WB figures our GDP/capita grew by 3% from 2010 to 2016.rcs1000 said:
It's slightly misleading not to include the global economic backdrop, no?
I am no fan of George Osborne, for he allowed the imbalances in the UK economy to worsen markedly under his watch, but during the coalition years, the British economy, and British real wages did significantly better than those in almost all of our major trading partners.
That's not an annual rate, that's over the 6 year period.
By contrast- USA grew by 18%, Germany by 17%.
You're right though that we did much better than France, Italy, Spain etc. who shrunk over that timeframe.
On real wages I think the UK has been one of the worst in the world over Osborne's period as Chancellor.
Back in 2008/09, when output fell very sharply real wages hardly fell at all. Subsequently, they did fall, till 2014, even though the economy was growing. The fall in real wages was a delayed reaction to the sharp recession in 2008/09.0 -
Good afternoon, my fellow patriotic Britons.
F1: the only real bets I'm considering, and I'll probably decide tomorrow, are the Red Bulls to win each way and Vettel to DNF at 8. He's had 2/3 DNFs in recent races. May be worth checking the weather forecast.0 -
Though Leave remains ahead among the people who voted in the referendum.williamglenn said:Survation also has Remain ahead 52:48 on the question of how you would vote in a second referendum.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/9206267157386362880 -
Many Conservatives don't really understand how Corbyn ticks:Talking in 1980s terms about "Bennites" is an illustration.HYUFD said:
He won't. Corbyn is a Bennite who has no interest in the EU or the single market which is why he promised at the general election to take us out of both. Soft Brexit would dilute his plans for a socialist UK
(1) He has no strong view on the EU. He thinks there's a lot wrong with it - too much untrammelled free market, too many restrictions on government intervention, too little democracy - but on balance nowadays it's better to be in.
(2) He recognises that there's public concern about immigration, but he doesn't really share it. If a deal required us to accept the four freedoms, he'd buy it. I doubt if the EU27 would demand the Euro as a price.
If Brexit turns out to be a shambles, he'll have no ideological problem in reversing it. Political problems, problems with the EU27, sure. But personal ideology? No.
0 -
The seven steps from a “no-deal” Brexit to Jeremy Corbyn’s Britain
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-seven-steps-from-the-no-deal-brexit-to-jeremy-corbyns-britain0 -
I've been betting on Parliament running long from its outset. The dynamics are such as to make it less likely to collapse completely than people think. Even now, laying 2018 as the next election year on Betfair at 3.95 is probably fair value.0
-
I agree with that.TheValiant said:I think, if a new leader is going to go to the polls, they have to do so within 3 to 6 months of taking office. They can claim they are seeking their own mandate.
Although some now say Brown was wise to NOT go to the polls in October 2007, I still think he was foolish, as I now think May was foolish to wait until June 2017.
Both Brown and May took office in the summer (2007 and 2016 respectively). Both could've gone for October elections of the same year and taken their polling bounce AND made the case it was for their own mandate. Neither did. Brown never bothered at all, and May left it too late.
It might be that an October 2016 GE would've produced a similar result, but I suspect not. I think May would have just squeeked her majority (possibly an improved one) that she did not manage in June 17.
I managed to lose twice - backing an election in 2016, post-brexit and laying 2017, post-A50. It didn't make sense.
Perhaps she learned the wrong lesson from Gordon Brown, perhaps she didn't realise how flaky her coalition of support was until the budget in march, or perhaps she got scared by the expenses prosecutions.
Or maybe she just didn't believe the initial polls until copeland/stoke/locals *proved* their new support in brexitstan was real. Overcaution.
Anyway, as I've said a few times on here, I recon she almost certainly would have won the election at any point up to the triggering of A50. That was her joker card. That should have been the entire manifesto and nothing else. The letter to Mr Junker. An invitation to the voters to sign it.
The campaign launch at St Pancras - buying two tickets to Brussels on the first eurostar after polling closes.
One in her name, one in Corbyn's name.
The voters decide.0 -
Ha ha you must be confident this is going to happen if you want 100/1 to bet on it.TheScreamingEagles said:
No chance, so you'll give me say 100/1 on it happening then?CopperSulphate said:
Eh? Corbyn doesn't even want to be in the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
Of course they will.Pulpstar said:
Lol, no way will Europe take us back after a few years of Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.
He might propose it as one of his first acts as PM.
No chance of this whatsoever.0 -
I am not sure what the point is. Is it (a) that the Leave vote was also a vote to leave the Single Market, despite that clarification not being part of the Referendum question? In that case the analysis is valid because it shows what was promised by the Leave campaign to support that presumption is undeliverable. Or is the point that the Single Market is bad from first principles, in which case the counter-argument is surely also valid.RobD said:
The one irrefutable argument that Leave has for Remainers like myself is, Suck it up, loser. You lost. Get over it. I have no comeback, because it is true. My side lost. I have to accept the result, no matter how bad the consequences, and am sure they won't be good. But I don't have to accept a single thing beyond what was on the ballot paper - to leave the EU. Everything else is up for grabs.0 -
I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.AlastairMeeks said:I've been betting on Parliament running long from its outset. The dynamics are such as to make it less likely to collapse completely than people think. Even now, laying 2018 as the next election year on Betfair at 3.95 is probably fair value.
0 -
You said no chance of it happening.. No chance equates to odds of 100/1.CopperSulphate said:
Ha ha you must be confident this is going to happen if you want 100/1 to bet on it.TheScreamingEagles said:
No chance, so you'll give me say 100/1 on it happening then?CopperSulphate said:
Eh? Corbyn doesn't even want to be in the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
Of course they will.Pulpstar said:
Lol, no way will Europe take us back after a few years of Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.
He might propose it as one of his first acts as PM.
No chance of this whatsoever.
0 -
The paradox is that it's exactly this inertia taking us towards the cliff edge that is undermining the people who initiated the process. Leavers would be better off if it were possible to bank the result as a statement of public opinion but not actually act on it, because acting on it exposes the undeliverable and incoherent nature of their position.FF43 said:The one irrefutable argument that Leave has for Remainers like myself is, Suck it up, loser. You lost. Get over it. I have no comeback, because it is true. My side lost. I have to accept the result, no matter how bad the consequences, and am sure they won't be good. But I don't have to accept a single thing beyond what was on the ballot paper - to leave the EU. Everything else is up for grabs.
0 -
Is what 99.999% of Leavers don't get.FF43 said:
I am not sure what the point is. Is it (a) that the Leave vote was also a vote to leave the Single Market, despite that clarification not being part of the Referendum question? In that case the analysis is valid because it shows what was promised by the Leave campaign to support that presumption is undeliverable. Or is the point that the Single Market is bad from first principles, in which case the counter-argument is surely also valid.RobD said:
The one irrefutable argument that Leave has for Remainers like myself is, Suck it up, loser. You lost. Get over it. I have no comeback, because it is true. My side lost. I have to accept the result, no matter how bad the consequences, and am sure they won't be good. But I don't have to accept a single thing beyond what was on the ballot paper - to leave the EU. Everything else is up for grabs.
There was nothing on the ballot paper, save leave the EU, there was no manifesto (I argued at length on here that there was a manifesto, but that was pooh-poohed by the leavers), there were no concrete plans about what we would do should leave win.
And they won and given the policy vacuum that they championed ("it's up to the government") I find it amazing that they whine so much when it is suggested that we should stay in the single market.0 -
-
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
0 -
And laying the foundations of the Wirtschaftswunder. I knew that sooner or later you'd come over to the Leave cause.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.AlastairMeeks said:I've been betting on Parliament running long from its outset. The dynamics are such as to make it less likely to collapse completely than people think. Even now, laying 2018 as the next election year on Betfair at 3.95 is probably fair value.
0 -
My figures are what you get when you type into google, World Bank. $38709 -> $39,899.Sean_F said:
GDP per capita grew by 3% between 2007 and the second quarter of this year. Since 2010, it's grown by about 10%.rkrkrk said:
According to WB figures our GDP/capita grew by 3% from 2010 to 2016.rcs1000 said:
It's slightly misleading not to include the global economic backdrop, no?
I am no fan of George Osborne, for he allowed the imbalances in the UK economy to worsen markedly under his watch, but during the coalition years, the British economy, and British real wages did significantly better than those in almost all of our major trading partners.
That's not an annual rate, that's over the 6 year period.
By contrast- USA grew by 18%, Germany by 17%.
You're right though that we did much better than France, Italy, Spain etc. who shrunk over that timeframe.
On real wages I think the UK has been one of the worst in the world over Osborne's period as Chancellor.
Back in 2008/09, when output fell very sharply real wages hardly fell at all. Subsequently, they did fall, till 2014, even though the economy was growing. The fall in real wages was a delayed reaction to the sharp recession in 2008/09.
0 -
Thanks - I agree. I'm on the 3.95 lay now.AlastairMeeks said:I've been betting on Parliament running long from its outset. The dynamics are such as to make it less likely to collapse completely than people think. Even now, laying 2018 as the next election year on Betfair at 3.95 is probably fair value.
0 -
Mr. 43, disagree.
The idea that if we just remained in the EU, all would be well, is for the birds.
Whatever the outcome of our relationship with the EU, all the way from staying to WTO departure, there will be serious and prolonged division. The idea there's an easy way out and then all will be well is a pleasant fiction.0 -
Yes I think this too.FF43 said:
The one irrefutable argument that Leave has for Remainers like myself is, Suck it up, loser. You lost. Get over it. I have no comeback, because it is true. My side lost. I have to accept the result, no matter how bad the consequences, and am sure they won't be good. But I don't have to accept a single thing beyond what was on the ballot paper - to leave the EU. Everything else is up for grabs.
If public opinion did dramatically shift then I'd be okay with a second referendum.
But otherwise we have to leave.
We don't have to end FOM, leave the single market or anything else.
It's just that's what TM wants to do...0 -
I'm fairly sure May spends more time thinking about how to choreograph an exit from Brexit than she does thinking about the post-Brexit relationship she wants.rkrkrk said:
Yes I think this too.FF43 said:
The one irrefutable argument that Leave has for Remainers like myself is, Suck it up, loser. You lost. Get over it. I have no comeback, because it is true. My side lost. I have to accept the result, no matter how bad the consequences, and am sure they won't be good. But I don't have to accept a single thing beyond what was on the ballot paper - to leave the EU. Everything else is up for grabs.
If public opinion did dramatically shift then I'd be okay with a second referendum.
But otherwise we have to leave.
We don't have to end FOM, leave the single market or anything else.
It's just that's what TM wants to do...0 -
I'm going by the ONS' numbers.rkrkrk said:
My figures are what you get when you type into google, World Bank. $38709 -> $39,899.Sean_F said:
GDP per capita grew by 3% between 2007 and the second quarter of this year. Since 2010, it's grown by about 10%.rkrkrk said:
According to WB figures our GDP/capita grew by 3% from 2010 to 2016.rcs1000 said:
It's slightly misleading not to include the global economic backdrop, no?
I am no fan of George Osborne, for he allowed the imbalances in the UK economy to worsen markedly under his watch, but during the coalition years, the British economy, and British real wages did significantly better than those in almost all of our major trading partners.
That's not an annual rate, that's over the 6 year period.
By contrast- USA grew by 18%, Germany by 17%.
You're right though that we did much better than France, Italy, Spain etc. who shrunk over that timeframe.
On real wages I think the UK has been one of the worst in the world over Osborne's period as Chancellor.
Back in 2008/09, when output fell very sharply real wages hardly fell at all. Subsequently, they did fall, till 2014, even though the economy was growing. The fall in real wages was a delayed reaction to the sharp recession in 2008/09.0 -
Liberalism ultimately triumphed because because fascism destroyed itself as well as liberalism? It's a logical fallacy that must have a name.Ishmael_Z said:
And laying the foundations of the Wirtschaftswunder. I knew that sooner or later you'd come over to the Leave cause.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.AlastairMeeks said:I've been betting on Parliament running long from its outset. The dynamics are such as to make it less likely to collapse completely than people think. Even now, laying 2018 as the next election year on Betfair at 3.95 is probably fair value.
0 -
With respect, Nick, I think (1) is hogwash. He (and his office) did everything they could to undermine Labour's official support for Remain.NickPalmer said:
Many Conservatives don't really understand how Corbyn ticks:Talking in 1980s terms about "Bennites" is an illustration.HYUFD said:
He won't. Corbyn is a Bennite who has no interest in the EU or the single market which is why he promised at the general election to take us out of both. Soft Brexit would dilute his plans for a socialist UK
(1) He has no strong view on the EU. He thinks there's a lot wrong with it - too much untrammelled free market, too many restrictions on government intervention, too little democracy - but on balance nowadays it's better to be in.
(2) He recognises that there's public concern about immigration, but he doesn't really share it. If a deal required us to accept the four freedoms, he'd buy it. I doubt if the EU27 would demand the Euro as a price.
If Brexit turns out to be a shambles, he'll have no ideological problem in reversing it. Political problems, problems with the EU27, sure. But personal ideology? No.
But that doesn't mean your conclusion is invalid - the real revelation, since the election was called, is the extent of his pragmatism.0 -
I see James Brokenshire has now guaranteed there will be no cameras on the Irish border. Northern Ireland looks like the best excuse for the government to reverse ferret on Brexit.0
-
I think that you mean laying the foundations of the EU!Ishmael_Z said:
And laying the foundations of the Wirtschaftswunder. I knew that sooner or later you'd come over to the Leave cause.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.AlastairMeeks said:I've been betting on Parliament running long from its outset. The dynamics are such as to make it less likely to collapse completely than people think. Even now, laying 2018 as the next election year on Betfair at 3.95 is probably fair value.
I dont think the Tories can win again until they have reversed polarity back to the Heathite view that Britains future lies in Europe.0 -
May concentrates on holding her stuff together and nothing else. The Article 50 impasse is entirely about her fear, and fear is not too strong a word, of revealing the cost of Brexit to her Leaver constituency. The EU don't see any reason to let her off the hook.williamglenn said:
I'm fairly sure May spends more time thinking about how to choreograph an exit from Brexit than she does thinking about the post-Brexit relationship she wants.rkrkrk said:
Yes I think this too.FF43 said:
The one irrefutable argument that Leave has for Remainers like myself is, Suck it up, loser. You lost. Get over it. I have no comeback, because it is true. My side lost. I have to accept the result, no matter how bad the consequences, and am sure they won't be good. But I don't have to accept a single thing beyond what was on the ballot paper - to leave the EU. Everything else is up for grabs.
If public opinion did dramatically shift then I'd be okay with a second referendum.
But otherwise we have to leave.
We don't have to end FOM, leave the single market or anything else.
It's just that's what TM wants to do...
Edit. I suspect Mrs May now wishes Brexit would go away.0 -
Yes, Vietnam fits too. I hope that you are following the excellent series on BBC4 on Vietnam.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
I suppose the current drive for No Deal is the equivalent of Nixon widening the war into Cambodia. In for a penny...0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, the EU is not Europe.
The idea that by changing and remaining everything would be ok is massively flawed. In the short term, it would be better economically. But without any referendum or General Election, there would be no democratic mandate and the lesson would go out that the electorate can and will be ignored by the political class if they see fit to do so.
That would be a gift for the far right (the far left, being the Official Opposition, needs no such help).
Supposing there is another vote of some variety, that would diminish the above consequence but not eliminate it, and would add the charge that votes for the EU count forever, and votes against don't really matter.
Every time the UK's budget contribution rises there'll be cries of foul, every time QMV or the ECJ imposes a ruling we don't want it'll remind voters that they expressed their view and it was ignored.
The attitude we eventually settle on as a country towards the EU is the end of an act, not the play.0 -
Well what odds would you give it then if you're so confident of it happening?TheScreamingEagles said:
You said no chance of it happening.. No chance equates to odds of 100/1.CopperSulphate said:
Ha ha you must be confident this is going to happen if you want 100/1 to bet on it.TheScreamingEagles said:
No chance, so you'll give me say 100/1 on it happening then?CopperSulphate said:
Eh? Corbyn doesn't even want to be in the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
Of course they will.Pulpstar said:
Lol, no way will Europe take us back after a few years of Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.
He might propose it as one of his first acts as PM.
No chance of this whatsoever.0 -
Another interesting comparison is France under the 4th republic. A series of weak and unpopular leaders led fractious and divided governments trying to do something very difficult (hold on to Algeria) which was widely believed to be unachievable, had little international support and was a source of deep division within the country. Eventually the entire political system cracked under the strain, realities had to be faced and the struggle was abandoned. Brexit could easily lead to a similar political implosion here.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
0 -
This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/9206526719750840340 -
If the British state were not serious about Brexit this is exactly what it would do. Roll the dice, go through the motions, and if it doesn't work (because the other side doesn't give way), back out.FF43 said:
May concentrates on holding her stuff together and nothing else. The Article 50 impasse is entirely about her fear, and fear is not too strong a word, of revealing the cost of Brexit to her Leaver constituency. The EU don't see any reason to let her off the hook.williamglenn said:
I'm fairly sure May spends more time thinking about how to choreograph an exit from Brexit than she does thinking about the post-Brexit relationship she wants.rkrkrk said:
Yes I think this too.FF43 said:
The one irrefutable argument that Leave has for Remainers like myself is, Suck it up, loser. You lost. Get over it. I have no comeback, because it is true. My side lost. I have to accept the result, no matter how bad the consequences, and am sure they won't be good. But I don't have to accept a single thing beyond what was on the ballot paper - to leave the EU. Everything else is up for grabs.
If public opinion did dramatically shift then I'd be okay with a second referendum.
But otherwise we have to leave.
We don't have to end FOM, leave the single market or anything else.
It's just that's what TM wants to do...
Edit. I suspect Mrs May now wishes Brexit would go away.0 -
One for all the edgy British left-wingers cheerleading for Catalan independence. The best predictors of support for separation from Spain are wealth and "pure" Catalan blood.
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/29/inenglish/1506691641_240457.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM_EN0 -
FA in huge trouble over Aluko (and deservedly so).
Daniel Taylor @DTguardian
First revelation: Martin Glenn, FA chief exec, invited her to meeting recently and tried to cut deal over her financial settlement
That deal, Aluko says, was she either put out a statement confirming the FA was “not institutionally racist” - or she lost her money.
Whole thread here:
https://twitter.com/DTguardian/status/920644029976473601
0 -
Actually that comparison shows that we're not in such a bad place domestically, despite the divisions. At least May doesn't have to worry about pro-Brexit militias assassinating her.anothernick said:
Another interesting comparison is France under the 4th republic. A series of weak and unpopular leaders led fractious and divided governments trying to do something very difficult (hold on to Algeria) which was widely believed to be unachievable, had little international support and was a source of deep division within the country. Eventually the entire political system cracked under the strain, realities had to be faced and the struggle was abandoned. Brexit could easily lead to a similar political implosion here.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
0 -
Just come late to this. I agree with Mike's general assessment that the parliament will run its full course. However, that would mean that the next election will be on 5 May 2022.
The provisions of the FTPA revert the next election back to the first Thursday in May after an election which wasn't on that date. It also requires that the date set be that May between 4-5 years ahead, so that a parliament can't last more than 5 years.
It would be possible under the FTPA for the election to be in late June 2022. Section 1(5) allows the PM to delay an election for up to two months, subject to a vote in both Houses - which in other words means it couldn't be done for partisan reasons.0 -
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?0 -
I'm loving how strong and stable this government is.rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?0 -
I think they are working on the basis that the vote isn't binding so they're going to ignore it.rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?0 -
Apparently this happened earlier, so the motions went through on the nod without a division. The thinking is that an uncontested vote against is less damaging than one where MPs have to vote one way or the other and where you can measure the scale of the defeat.AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/9206526719750840340 -
I'd be ashamed if I was a Tory MP at the moment. Can't even defend their own flagship policy.FF43 said:
Apparently this happened earlier, so the motions went through on the nod without a division. The thinking is that an uncontested vote against is less damaging than one where MPs have to vote one way or the other and where you can measure the scale of the defeat.AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/9206526719750840340 -
Thanks for the explanation.AlastairMeeks said:
I think they are working on the basis that the vote isn't binding so they're going to ignore it.rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?
Guardian are suggesting one MP for Labour might be asked to shout no to force a division and then allocate two tellers, so they can rack up a massive vote number against Universal Credit rollout.0 -
Isn’t the vote basically meaningless?rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?0 -
Yes I think you're right. That's what Alistair Meeks said anyway!RobD said:
Isn’t the vote basically meaningless?rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?0 -
You need to be more specific about what 'it' is. It's highly unlikely that Corbyn will lead Britain back into the EU, not least because of the timescales involved. Even if he wanted to (or, more realistically, many in his party wanted to and he wasn't fussed enough to confront them over it), it'd have to be questionable as to whether reaching and ratifying a deal could be done within five years.CopperSulphate said:
Well what odds would you give it then if you're so confident of it happening?TheScreamingEagles said:
You said no chance of it happening.. No chance equates to odds of 100/1.CopperSulphate said:
Ha ha you must be confident this is going to happen if you want 100/1 to bet on it.TheScreamingEagles said:
No chance, so you'll give me say 100/1 on it happening then?CopperSulphate said:
Eh? Corbyn doesn't even want to be in the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
Of course they will.Pulpstar said:
Lol, no way will Europe take us back after a few years of Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
How are you going to feel if Jezza announces he's taking us back into the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen et al to get us out of the Brexit slump?Casino_Royale said:
I think a large number of us on here are going to hate every minute of it.Pulpstar said:Wusses. I'm riding out hurricane Jezza in Sheffield, and am currently trying to spring two rungs up the housing ladder.
Hell, I didn't even like Blair that much.
I might just shut myself off from the world for 5 years - and start taking anti-depressants - lest I throw myself in front of a train.
Oh, and start homebrew. A lot of homebrew.
He might propose it as one of his first acts as PM.
No chance of this whatsoever.
On the other hand, if you're saying that a Corbyn-led Labour government would *apply* to rejoin the EU, then - assuming that the UK has already left and that Corbyn has already become PM - I wouldn't put the odds any longer than mid-single figures. Of course, the odds get a good deal longer if you don't take those assumptions as givens.0 -
Yes that's true - we don't have an equivalent of the OAS - but as the talks run into the sand, time runs out and the legislation essential for Brexit is stalled before it has even started its passage through the Commons (let alone the Lords) it seems more and more likely that Brexit cannot be delivered and this will lead to a major political and economic crisis between now and March 2019.williamglenn said:
Actually that comparison shows that we're not in such a bad place domestically, despite the divisions. At least May doesn't have to worry about pro-Brexit militias assassinating her.anothernick said:
Another interesting comparison is France under the 4th republic. A series of weak and unpopular leaders led fractious and divided governments trying to do something very difficult (hold on to Algeria) which was widely believed to be unachievable, had little international support and was a source of deep division within the country. Eventually the entire political system cracked under the strain, realities had to be faced and the struggle was abandoned. Brexit could easily lead to a similar political implosion here.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
0 -
The government can get away with it as long as the public don't notice. But once the public realise the government can't be bothered to defend their policy and then ignore the vote that took place to stop it, the government are in serious trouble. Labour should make a lot of this.RobD said:
Isn’t the vote basically meaningless?rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?0 -
Pretty humiliating for IDS.Monksfield said:
I'd be ashamed if I was a Tory MP at the moment. Can't even defend their own flagship policy.FF43 said:
Apparently this happened earlier, so the motions went through on the nod without a division. The thinking is that an uncontested vote against is less damaging than one where MPs have to vote one way or the other and where you can measure the scale of the defeat.AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/9206526719750840340 -
It's called parliamentary sovereignty I believe. Parliament is not sovereign when the government decides to ignore it.AlastairMeeks said:
I think they are working on the basis that the vote isn't binding so they're going to ignore it.rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?0 -
At least he's got Brexit...Pong said:
Pretty humiliating for IDS.Monksfield said:
I'd be ashamed if I was a Tory MP at the moment. Can't even defend their own flagship policy.FF43 said:
Apparently this happened earlier, so the motions went through on the nod without a division. The thinking is that an uncontested vote against is less damaging than one where MPs have to vote one way or the other and where you can measure the scale of the defeat.AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/9206526719750840340 -
I’m sure the public will get real riled up about opposition day motions!FF43 said:
The government can get away with it as long as the public don't notice. But once the public realise the government can't be bothered to defend their policy and then ignore the vote that took place to stop it, the government are in serious trouble. Labour should make a lot of this.RobD said:
Isn’t the vote basically meaningless?rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?
0 -
It’s actually called virtue signalling.anothernick said:
It's called parliamentary sovereignty I believe. Parliament is not sovereign when the government decides to ignore it.AlastairMeeks said:
I think they are working on the basis that the vote isn't binding so they're going to ignore it.rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?
*hides*0 -
Depends how many tory MP's defy the Swiss whip.FF43 said:
The government can get away with it as long as the public don't notice. But once the public realise the government can't be bothered to defend their policy and then ignore the vote that took place to stop it, the government are in serious trouble. Labour should make a lot of this.RobD said:
Isn’t the vote basically meaningless?rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?
(Is that what this kind of thing is called? Does it have a name? Have I just invented it?)
(Bonus: Does anyone remember if this kind of ting happened in the 70's?)0 -
As I said this morning it is hard to determine whether it highlights the government's contempt for Parliament or the utter futility of opposition the most.AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/9206526719750840340 -
If Parliament wants to enforce an expressed will, there are mechanisms by which to do so. Ultimately, all of them end up at a Confidence vote.anothernick said:
It's called parliamentary sovereignty I believe. Parliament is not sovereign when the government decides to ignore it.AlastairMeeks said:
I think they are working on the basis that the vote isn't binding so they're going to ignore it.rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?
It's a misunderstanding to think that the government has always bowed to parliament's opinion on matters; it hasn't. it might take notice of non-binding votes, and it might be wise to do so but it's not obliged to do so.0 -
Yes because they either lose and ignore it, or whip and win it.DavidL said:
As I said this morning it is hard to determine whether it highlights the government's contempt for Parliament or the utter futility of opposition the most.AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
Either way UC continues.0 -
They are playing it for laughs now...
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/9206616551088906240 -
The key factor is whether the public turns against Universal Credit, in which case government shenanigans will bite them. If they think UC is fine, methods won't be an issue. The Poll Tax is awful example for the Tories, who by the way lost their presence in Scotland for a generation over using that country as a guinea pig for a policy that was only abolished when problems started in EnglandRobD said:
I’m sure the public will get real riled up about opposition day motions!FF43 said:
The government can get away with it as long as the public don't notice. But once the public realise the government can't be bothered to defend their policy and then ignore the vote that took place to stop it, the government are in serious trouble. Labour should make a lot of this.RobD said:
Isn’t the vote basically meaningless?rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?0 -
The problem is not that Brexit can't be delivered; it's that it can't be delivered effectively. For it simply to be delivered, all we have to do is wait: notice has been served.anothernick said:
Yes that's true - we don't have an equivalent of the OAS - but as the talks run into the sand, time runs out and the legislation essential for Brexit is stalled before it has even started its passage through the Commons (let alone the Lords) it seems more and more likely that Brexit cannot be delivered and this will lead to a major political and economic crisis between now and March 2019.williamglenn said:
Actually that comparison shows that we're not in such a bad place domestically, despite the divisions. At least May doesn't have to worry about pro-Brexit militias assassinating her.anothernick said:
Another interesting comparison is France under the 4th republic. A series of weak and unpopular leaders led fractious and divided governments trying to do something very difficult (hold on to Algeria) which was widely believed to be unachievable, had little international support and was a source of deep division within the country. Eventually the entire political system cracked under the strain, realities had to be faced and the struggle was abandoned. Brexit could easily lead to a similar political implosion here.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
Ironically, given what he perceived to be his greatest achievement, you might also make a comparison with the early 1970s.0 -
Not really playing the game though is it? The point of an Opposition Motion is to challenge the government of the day in a particular area where there is a genuine concern that things are not going well. If the government simply says, "well the legislation is in place and we don't care what you think" Parliamentary discourse is diminished and a government is choosing not to be held to account. I don't like it.TOPPING said:
Yes because they either lose and ignore it, or whip and win it.DavidL said:
As I said this morning it is hard to determine whether it highlights the government's contempt for Parliament or the utter futility of opposition the most.AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
Either way UC continues.0 -
The Brown government lost an opposition day motion over Gurkha pensions, I believe. In that case it accepted the result.Pong said:
Depends how many tory MP's defy the Swiss whip.FF43 said:
The government can get away with it as long as the public don't notice. But once the public realise the government can't be bothered to defend their policy and then ignore the vote that took place to stop it, the government are in serious trouble. Labour should make a lot of this.RobD said:
Isn’t the vote basically meaningless?rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?
(Is that what this kind of thing is called? Does it have a name? Have I just invented it?)
(Bonus: Does anyone remember if this kind of ting happened in the 70's?)0 -
yebbut an organised opposition would otherwise bring government business to a halt. Name me a policy that the opposition likes or doesn't have genuine concern, whether they like it or have genuine concern or not?DavidL said:
Not really playing the game though is it? The point of an Opposition Motion is to challenge the government of the day in a particular area where there is a genuine concern that things are not going well. If the government simply says, "well the legislation is in place and we don't care what you think" Parliamentary discourse is diminished and a government is choosing not to be held to account. I don't like it.TOPPING said:
Yes because they either lose and ignore it, or whip and win it.DavidL said:
As I said this morning it is hard to determine whether it highlights the government's contempt for Parliament or the utter futility of opposition the most.AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
Either way UC continues.0 -
Interestingly I started a thread header a few days ago which made just that comparison, based on some of the things said by Kennedy and LBJ in Burns's magnificent documentary.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
I now can't finish it, damn you!, because it will look as if I've stolen your idea.
(Anyway we talk far too much about Brexit on here as it is. As it's currently being handled, we have painted ourselves into a corner and urgently need to find a way out of the mess we've created for ourselves.)
0 -
ooooh I remember that!FF43 said:
The Brown government lost an opposition day motion over Gurkha pensions, I believe. In that case it accepted the result.Pong said:
Depends how many tory MP's defy the Swiss whip.FF43 said:
The government can get away with it as long as the public don't notice. But once the public realise the government can't be bothered to defend their policy and then ignore the vote that took place to stop it, the government are in serious trouble. Labour should make a lot of this.RobD said:
Isn’t the vote basically meaningless?rkrkrk said:
So Universal Credit is going to be delayed?AlastairMeeks said:This is starting to become a regular occurrence. Interesting tactic:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/920652671975084034
But the govt (apparently) doesn't have an opinion on whether it should be delayed or not?
(Is that what this kind of thing is called? Does it have a name? Have I just invented it?)
(Bonus: Does anyone remember if this kind of ting happened in the 70's?)
Joanna Lumley's public humiliation of Phil Woolas;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sF5FR6Op1zM
0 -
Actually, IIRC when UC was first introduced as a concept there was significant cross party support for it. The incredibly delayed and confused implementation of it has caused genuine concern and there is little evidence from the pilots that much has been learned.TOPPING said:
yebbut an organised opposition would otherwise bring government business to a halt. Name me a policy that the opposition likes or doesn't have genuine concern, whether they like it or have genuine concern or not?DavidL said:
Not really playing the game though is it? The point of an Opposition Motion is to challenge the government of the day in a particular area where there is a genuine concern that things are not going well. If the government simply says, "well the legislation is in place and we don't care what you think" Parliamentary discourse is diminished and a government is choosing not to be held to account. I don't like it.TOPPING said:
Yes because they either lose and ignore it, or whip and win it.DavidL said:
As I said this morning it is hard to determine whether it highlights the government's contempt for Parliament or the utter futility of opposition the most.AlastairMeeks said:
Either way UC continues.
Opposition stopping government business also assumes that the government of the day has much business to stop. This Parliament seems incredibly light on business other than Brexit.0 -
Please don't stop. Ideas are organisms that breathe and develop. They are not copyright. I am quite an optimistic person and I think there may be a way out of the hole that doesn't involve rejoining the EU. It means getting together with the Swiss and the Norwegians and making a common pitch to the EU for associate membership on a shared values platform. The UK may have enough political clout and, putting it bluntly, money to do this. We would have to lose our negative mindsets, in particular the Leaver mindset of No, No , No (Money, ECJ, FoM, Single Marketetc)Cyclefree said:
Interestingly I started a thread header a few days ago which made just that comparison, based on some of the things said by Kennedy and LBJ in Burns's magnificent documentary.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
I now can't finish it, damn you!, because it will look as if I've stolen your idea.
(Anyway we talk far too much about Brexit on here as it is. As it's currently being handled, we have painted ourselves into a corner and urgently need to find a way out of the mess we've created for ourselves.)0 -
I don't see any real way to design an associate membership that would be 'less Europe' than Dave's deal and the EU would have to slip up significantly for this to end up with the UK leading an alternative power bloc.FF43 said:
Please don't stop. Ideas are organisms that breathe and develop. They are not copyright. I am quite an optimistic person and I think there may be a way out of the hole that doesn't involve rejoining the EU. It means getting together with the Swiss and the Norwegians and making a common pitch to the EU for associate membership on a shared values platform. The UK may have enough political clout and, putting it bluntly, money to do this. We would have to lose our negative mindsets, in particular the Leaver mindset of No, No , No (Money, ECJ, FoM, Single Marketetc)Cyclefree said:
Interestingly I started a thread header a few days ago which made just that comparison, based on some of the things said by Kennedy and LBJ in Burns's magnificent documentary.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
I now can't finish it, damn you!, because it will look as if I've stolen your idea.
(Anyway we talk far too much about Brexit on here as it is. As it's currently being handled, we have painted ourselves into a corner and urgently need to find a way out of the mess we've created for ourselves.)0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
Norway, Switzerland and the UK are not a power bloc. Perhaps if we could include Turkey as well...williamglenn said:
I don't see any real way to design an associate membership that would be 'less Europe' than Dave's deal and the EU would have to slip up significantly for this to end up with the UK leading an alternative power bloc.FF43 said:
Please don't stop. Ideas are organisms that breathe and develop. They are not copyright. I am quite an optimistic person and I think there may be a way out of the hole that doesn't involve rejoining the EU. It means getting together with the Swiss and the Norwegians and making a common pitch to the EU for associate membership on a shared values platform. The UK may have enough political clout and, putting it bluntly, money to do this. We would have to lose our negative mindsets, in particular the Leaver mindset of No, No , No (Money, ECJ, FoM, Single Marketetc)Cyclefree said:
Interestingly I started a thread header a few days ago which made just that comparison, based on some of the things said by Kennedy and LBJ in Burns's magnificent documentary.FF43 said:
In political terms maybe like America in Vietnam. We have got ourselves by mistake into a situation that we we didn't understand. We will be unable to extricate ourselves from it long after the idea stopped making any sense. It will be highly divisive and pitch older conservatives against younger liberals. The damage will mainly fall on middle Britain while the elites that got ourselves into the mess are largely unscathed. It will paralyse British civic life for decades.foxinsoxuk said:I agree, this government is like Germany in Autumn 1944, knowing itself to be doomed, but fighting on with no real plan on how to get out of a mess of its own making.
I now can't finish it, damn you!, because it will look as if I've stolen your idea.
(Anyway we talk far too much about Brexit on here as it is. As it's currently being handled, we have painted ourselves into a corner and urgently need to find a way out of the mess we've created for ourselves.)
I think that when in the EU, our big fish status meant we could normally get 95% of what we wanted in negotiations around policy. Outside of the EU, the power disparity will mean we'll get far less.0
This discussion has been closed.