politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the next general election will be in 2022
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Silence from Ruth !
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/9205918009723002880 -
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Who pays? If the government pays, then that is a bailout! I can't see any investors queuing up to pay lots of account holders when the bank is about to go bust.eek said:
Here's a quick thought - now that there are means to transfer bank accounts between banks would it be possible / practical to allow a bank to be shut down with all accounts transferred to the remaining banks....rcs1000 said:
Gordon Brown bailed out the depositors of those retail banks. He bailed out the guy who had his savings in Northern Rock. He bailed out the small business who had banked with RBS. He bailed out the family who used Lloyds for their current account.HYUFD said:
Brown left 9% unemployment, massive debt and bailed out every bank that asked, even Bush let Lehmans go bustJonathan said:
Brown inherited a tired party after 10yrs of majority rule. Not much he could do really.HYUFD said:
Your point was she was Gordon Brown, in terms of her 1 election result she was actually closer to Major 1992 or Wilson 1974 or Cameron 2010 than Brown. Brown got a result closer to Heath's results in 1974TheScreamingEagles said:
Missing the point once again.HYUFD said:
Brown got 29% and 258 seats, May 42% and 318 seatsTheScreamingEagles said:I made this point back in July too.
Like Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister she most resembles, Mrs May trashed her reputation over a snap election too.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/13/if-or-when-theresa-may-is-replaced-her-successor-shouldnt-hold-a-snap-election/
Or do you think Mrs May was enhanced by June’s result.
That is still the case even if the result was below expectations
May took a party that had just 2yrs ago won it's first majority, pull off a spectacular 180 and lost it.
Lehman Brothers was an investment bank. It did provide banking services to millions of people.
Do you really think the British economy would have performed better if millions of peoples' bank accounts were frozen, and tens of thousands of businesses were unable to function as their bank had gone bust?
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Because some Conservative MPs will be listening to their constituents concerns.I would imagine in new rollout areas , their workload has shot through the roof.TheScreamingEagles said:
Why are Tory MPs rebelling at all.Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul: Fine analysis by @BethRigby: Tory abstentions would lose vote on Labour Universal Credit motion, so Tory whips will ask MPs not to vote
@JohnRentoul: @BethRigby But this time Labour whips will put up tellers for the Govt & force a division. Govt will ignore, but it will be embarrassing. At 7pm.
Don't they know HYUFD said it was all going fine and those on benefits vote Labour anyway.0 -
I don't want to sound heartless. Universal Credit has problems, but this really isn't one of them, even though I think the helplines should be free. I would rather they fixed the other problems.Pong said:
You'll find the 55p/min charges on crappy pay as you go tarrifs, mainly. UC applicants are way more likely not to be able to get credit/contracts, so rely on the crappy pay as you go tariffs. They're also way more likely to not have easy access to (and confidence on) the internet.FF43 said:
You have a seriously screwy mobile package if you are paying 55p per minute to call 0345 numbers. Presumably you pay the same to call landlines. So fair does to Corbyn for point scored, but Universal Credit has problems that have nothing to do with call charges.Scott_P said:
You can get the Tesco Mobile Lite tariff without credit checks for 8p/minute. They should never be on a 55p/minute tariff for anything. That's a problem right there.0 -
Yup, I've been saying a while UC has the potential to be the modern day poll tax.Yorkcity said:
Because some Conservative MPs will be listening to their constituents concerns.I would imagine in new rollout areas , their workload has shot through the roof.TheScreamingEagles said:
Why are Tory MPs rebelling at all.Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul: Fine analysis by @BethRigby: Tory abstentions would lose vote on Labour Universal Credit motion, so Tory whips will ask MPs not to vote
@JohnRentoul: @BethRigby But this time Labour whips will put up tellers for the Govt & force a division. Govt will ignore, but it will be embarrassing. At 7pm.
Don't they know HYUFD said it was all going fine and those on benefits vote Labour anyway.0 -
Yes, exactly, and this is the response to Francis U's suggestion that surely most people are now on mobile phone contracts. SeePulpstar said:
I think its more of the general idea (Which is outside most 'middle class' people's experience) of just how expensive it is to be poor/(unable or unwilling to access sensible credit).
Prepay gas, electric; crazily high interest rate pay day loans, expensive PAYG phone credit amongst other things (high rents for poor accomodation)
https://www.globalrewardsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/GRS-Mobile-Top-up_Wireless-Market-Statistics-2015.pdf
People on low and fluctuating incomes are nervous of signing up to regular commitments (as they should be). In the same way, they will tend to buy small amounts of food instead of the bargain offers to buy a stock that will last for months. This is the sort of thing that really needs MPs with a clear insight into real life for the poor, either from personal experience or the much=despised casework.0 -
I didn't suggest that at all...I said I was shocked to find that 55p / minute on a cellphone was even a thing. I thought it was some mistake, because on most contracts 0345 is included and thus I presumed even for PAYG it wouldn't be particularly high.NickPalmer said:
Yes, exactly, and this is the response to Francis U's suggestion that surely most people are now on mobile phone contracts.Pulpstar said:
I think its more of the general idea (Which is outside most 'middle class' people's experience) of just how expensive it is to be poor/(unable or unwilling to access sensible credit).
Prepay gas, electric; crazily high interest rate pay day loans, expensive PAYG phone credit amongst other things (high rents for poor accomodation)0 -
There is a bit of a myth re-the 1974 -79 Labour Government which implies that the period was one of constant industrial strife. That was not actually true until the very end of 1978 and the Winter of Discontent which followed. The years 1974 - 78 were relatively peaceful - in contrast to the 1970 - 74 period.Cyclefree said:
I think it's because some of these matters were caused by industrial action by the unions and they were seen at the time and perhaps later as one and the same as Labour. But you're right that the 3-day week happened under Heath because he was unable to govern effectively. Labour thought at the time that working with the unions would bring industrial peace. Callaghan was to find that that wasn't the case. Hence Thatcher etc.....DecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Casino_Royale said:
In the first two examples, that nearly worked. Callaghan might have won had he gone in 1978 (he was somewhat unlucky with the Winter of Discontent) and Labour got their act together in the last 6 months of the 2005 Parliament, denying Cameron a majority.DavidL said:On topic if the government can maintain their arrangement with the DUP I think Mike is undoubtedly right. Fag end governments tend to hang on to the last in the hope something turns up anyway, see Labour 1974-9, 2005-2010 and the Tories 1992-7. So even without the FTPA I would expect that.
The only question is whether the arrangement with the DUP can be maintained. That may well bring us back to the last thread.
The 1992-1997 Parliament is the obvious outlier as the Tories were cruising for a bruising post Black Wednesday/Maastricht but waiting for the (very good) economic performance to become apparent was the right tactic.
God knows what would have happened to them had they gone to the country in 1995.0 -
Just saying well they should be on a cheaper tariff isn't good enough.FF43 said:
I don't want to sound heartless. Universal Credit has problems, but this really isn't one of them, even though I think the helplines should be free. I would rather they fixed the other problems.Pong said:
You'll find the 55p/min charges on crappy pay as you go tarrifs, mainly. UC applicants are way more likely not to be able to get credit/contracts, so rely on the crappy pay as you go tariffs. They're also way more likely to not have easy access to (and confidence on) the internet.FF43 said:
You have a seriously screwy mobile package if you are paying 55p per minute to call 0345 numbers. Presumably you pay the same to call landlines. So fair does to Corbyn for point scored, but Universal Credit has problems that have nothing to do with call charges.Scott_P said:
You can get the Tesco Mobile Lite tariff without credit checks for 8p/minute. They should never be on a 55p/minute tariff for anything. That's a problem right there.
Policy has to work in the real world.0 -
"The exact date TM announces her decision to step down as leader"Scott_P said:
Note:
Not the date she steps down as leader.
Combining november & december '17 @ ~4/1 gives fair value, imo. Covers the upcoming budget sh*tstorm and (possibly) brexit reverse ferret.0 -
"Remember that blue team has only lost one MP to the grim reaper since GE2001. "
This is a great example of the general improvement in public helth. 30 years ago it was quite common for someone under 65 to die suddenly from a heart attack. 3 off the top of my head are Jock Stein, Tommy Cooper and John Smith.
I heard a few years ago now from a heart attack expert that there are now one tenth of the number of deaths following a heart attack compared with the 70s. The availability of defibrillators and post heart attack care has had a massive effect.
Many of the older MPs are now given the opportunity to wait until the next GE and retire once their health starts to deteriorate.0 -
I think the next five years may deteriorate the health of many!eristdoof said:"Remember that blue team has only lost one MP to the grim reaper since GE2001. "
This is a great example of the general improvement in public helth. 30 years ago it was quite common for someone under 65 to die suddenly from a heart attack. 3 off the top of my head are Jock Stein, Tommy Cooper and John Smith.
I heard a few years ago now from a heart attack expert that there are now one tenth of the number of deaths following a heart attack compared with the 70s. The availability of defibrillators and post heart attack care has had a massive effect.
Many of the older MPs are now given the opportunity to wait until the next GE and retire once their health starts to deteriorate.0 -
I went out of my minutes allowance (I've since changed my package around slightly to unlimited minutes & 30 gigs, instead of 200 minutes and unlimited internet (£20 both)) a couple of months back and noted the monster charges for calling the vet. That was an 03 number.FrancisUrquhart said:
I didn't suggest that at all...I said I was shocked to find that 55p / minute on a cellphone was even a thing. I thought it was some mistake, because on most contracts 0345 is included and thus I presumed even for PAYG it wouldn't be particularly high.NickPalmer said:
Yes, exactly, and this is the response to Francis U's suggestion that surely most people are now on mobile phone contracts.Pulpstar said:
I think its more of the general idea (Which is outside most 'middle class' people's experience) of just how expensive it is to be poor/(unable or unwilling to access sensible credit).
Prepay gas, electric; crazily high interest rate pay day loans, expensive PAYG phone credit amongst other things (high rents for poor accomodation)0 -
This is from o2, is similar on other networks for people on contract as well.FrancisUrquhart said:
I didn't suggest that at all...I said I was shocked to find that 55p / minute on a cellphone was even a thing. I thought it was some mistake, because on most contracts 0345 is included and thus I presumed even for PAYG it wouldn't be particularly high.NickPalmer said:
Yes, exactly, and this is the response to Francis U's suggestion that surely most people are now on mobile phone contracts.Pulpstar said:
I think its more of the general idea (Which is outside most 'middle class' people's experience) of just how expensive it is to be poor/(unable or unwilling to access sensible credit).
Prepay gas, electric; crazily high interest rate pay day loans, expensive PAYG phone credit amongst other things (high rents for poor accomodation)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/9205989108963532800 -
Don’t bloody go there. I had shares in that good bank!Nigelb said:
Quite.rcs1000 said:
OK. Government lets Northern Rock go bust. Millions of peoples' bank accounts are frozen, thousands of business accounts are frozen, Northern Rock is unable to meet its liabilities to other banks.HYUFD said:
No it wouldn't, after all it was taxpayers money which bailed out Northern Rock. Though after that as I said the government would have had to intervene if any other banks and building societies got into trouble.
The problem was bailing out all of them sent a message that capitalism nationalised the losses and privatised the profits. As I said the US let Lehmans go bust to ensure that message did not fully apply there
People who use other banks panic: perhaps Barclays is the next Northern Rock? Massive lines outside other banks that might be insolvent. The interbank funding market dries up.
Tom's Hardware in Gateshead banked with Northern Rock. It can no longer make payroll to its employees as Northern Rock's bankruptcy has left it with frozen accounts. Its employees can't pay their mortgages as they haven't been paid.
This has a cascade effect. The employees of Tom's Hardware had their mortgages with Lloyds (which is having a funding crisis as people try to pull money out), and Lloyds has to announce that its number of non-performing mortgages has doubled.
These scenarios were played out in the Bank of England during the crisis. Letting a large retail bank go to the wall would have had diastrous knock on effects on the economy.
Now, does legislation need to be changed to make this kind of thing less likely in the future, perhaps with criminal liability for bank management that acts recklessly? Yes.
But the government and the Bank of England had no good choices in late 2007, 2008. Rescuing Northern Rock's depositors was the best bad option.
Although Lloyds - prior to getting strongarmed into bailing out HBOS - was probably the least likely of the UK banks to go under.0 -
0345 not included in my EE monthly service... as I found out to my cost a couple of months agoFrancisUrquhart said:
I didn't suggest that at all...I said I was shocked to find that 55p / minute on a cellphone was even a thing. I thought it was some mistake, because on most contracts 0345 is included and thus I presumed even for PAYG it wouldn't be particularly high.NickPalmer said:
Yes, exactly, and this is the response to Francis U's suggestion that surely most people are now on mobile phone contracts.Pulpstar said:
I think its more of the general idea (Which is outside most 'middle class' people's experience) of just how expensive it is to be poor/(unable or unwilling to access sensible credit).
Prepay gas, electric; crazily high interest rate pay day loans, expensive PAYG phone credit amongst other things (high rents for poor accomodation)
EDIT: correction - I was confusing that with 0845 numbers - those are the ones not included in my contract - apols!0 -
Only DWP I think - HMRC looks like it will still chargeScott_P said:
They are all being scrappedcalum said:I wonder how many other GOV helplines operate the same way?
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/self-assessment0 -
I’d have all government service phone lines moved to free - it gives the relevant department a huge incentive to make good information available online, and properly staff their call centres to avoid having people on hold for hours on end.Scott_P said:@BethRigby: Interesting ALL benefit helplines to go freephone. MP told me govt was worried about opening floodgate scrapping #UC charges. Changed mind?
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People doing self assessment will be on a bundle.calum said:
Only DWP I think - HMRC looks like it will still chargeScott_P said:
They are all being scrappedcalum said:I wonder how many other GOV helplines operate the same way?
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/self-assessment0 -
I agree that the next election is likely to be in 2022.
However, the SNP will make certain that they cannot be convincingly blamed for the Tories remaining in power, which means they would be willing to risk a further reduction in Westminster seats in order to bring down the Government if their votes were critical to doing that (worth noting that the latest polls indicate they would be more likely to gain rather than lose seats).
The reality is that the future of Scotland will, de facto, be decided by future Holyrood elections, not by Westminster ones.
A scenario of an SNP actual or near wipeout at Westminster, but a pro-independence majority at Holyrood followed by a Yes vote in another independence referendum, is entirely possible.
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+1rcs1000 said:
OK. Government lets Northern Rock go bust. Millions of peoples' bank accounts are frozen, thousands of business accounts are frozen, Northern Rock is unable to meet its liabilities to other banks.HYUFD said:
No it wouldn't, after all it was taxpayers money which bailed out Northern Rock. Though after that as I said the government would have had to intervene if any other banks and building societies got into trouble.
The problem was bailing out all of them sent a message that capitalism nationalised the losses and privatised the profits. As I said the US let Lehmans go bust to ensure that message did not fully apply there
People who use other banks panic: perhaps Barclays is the next Northern Rock? Massive lines outside other banks that might be insolvent. The interbank funding market dries up.
Tom's Hardware in Gateshead banked with Northern Rock. It can no longer make payroll to its employees as Northern Rock's bankruptcy has left it with frozen accounts. Its employees can't pay their mortgages as they haven't been paid.
This has a cascade effect. The employees of Tom's Hardware had their mortgages with Lloyds (which is having a funding crisis as people try to pull money out), and Lloyds has to announce that its number of non-performing mortgages has doubled.
These scenarios were played out in the Bank of England during the crisis. Letting a large retail bank go to the wall would have had diastrous knock on effects on the economy.
Now, does legislation need to be changed to make this kind of thing less likely in the future, perhaps with criminal liability for bank management that acts recklessly? Yes.
But the government and the Bank of England had no good choices in late 2007, 2008. Rescuing Northern Rock's depositors was the best bad option.0 -
Rcs is quite right - there was no sensible choice but to bail out Northern Rock, HBOS and RBS, and any Tory PM would have done the same. Those people who criticise GB so loudly for his actions would be even more vocifereous if he had let those banks go under and depositors lose their deposits.Sandpit said:
Don’t bloody go there. I had shares in that good bank!Nigelb said:
Quite.rcs1000 said:
OK. Government lets Northern Rock go bust. Millions of peoples' bank accounts are frozen, thousands of business accounts are frozen, Northern Rock is unable to meet its liabilities to other banks.HYUFD said:
No it wouldn't, after all it was taxpayers money which bailed out Northern Rock. Though after that as I said the government would have had to intervene if any other banks and building societies got into trouble.
The problem was bailing out all of them sent a message that capitalism nationalised the losses and privatised the profits. As I said the US let Lehmans go bust to ensure that message did not fully apply there
People who use other banks panic: perhaps Barclays is the next Northern Rock? Massive lines outside other banks that might be insolvent. The interbank funding market dries up.
Tom's Hardware in Gateshead banked with Northern Rock. It can no longer make payroll to its employees as Northern Rock's bankruptcy has left it with frozen accounts. Its employees can't pay their mortgages as they haven't been paid.
This has a cascade effect. The employees of Tom's Hardware had their mortgages with Lloyds (which is having a funding crisis as people try to pull money out), and Lloyds has to announce that its number of non-performing mortgages has doubled.
These scenarios were played out in the Bank of England during the crisis. Letting a large retail bank go to the wall would have had diastrous knock on effects on the economy.
Now, does legislation need to be changed to make this kind of thing less likely in the future, perhaps with criminal liability for bank management that acts recklessly? Yes.
But the government and the Bank of England had no good choices in late 2007, 2008. Rescuing Northern Rock's depositors was the best bad option.
Although Lloyds - prior to getting strongarmed into bailing out HBOS - was probably the least likely of the UK banks to go under.
@HYUFD "The problem was bailing out all of them sent a message that capitalism nationalised the losses and privatised the profits" - try telling that to all those who held shares in HBOS, RBS and Lloyds in 2007-8!0 -
Tax credit queries & gig economy self employedPulpstar said:
People doing self assessment will be on a bundle.calum said:
Only DWP I think - HMRC looks like it will still chargeScott_P said:
They are all being scrappedcalum said:I wonder how many other GOV helplines operate the same way?
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/self-assessment0 -
Yes, having to negotiate with Arlene Foster is a very different job from running a 'simple' Lib-Lab pact and dealing with David Steel. The Labour majority reached 0 in 1977.Benpointer said:
I think the next five years may deteriorate the health of many!eristdoof said:"Remember that blue team has only lost one MP to the grim reaper since GE2001. "
This is a great example of the general improvement in public helth. 30 years ago it was quite common for someone under 65 to die suddenly from a heart attack. 3 off the top of my head are Jock Stein, Tommy Cooper and John Smith.
I heard a few years ago now from a heart attack expert that there are now one tenth of the number of deaths following a heart attack compared with the 70s. The availability of defibrillators and post heart attack care has had a massive effect.
Many of the older MPs are now given the opportunity to wait until the next GE and retire once their health starts to deteriorate.
The grim reaper visited the HoC a lot, especially elderly Labour MPs. Labour MPs were older than Tory MPs then and the same is true now even though we're said to have more 'professional politicians'.0 -
@bbclaurak: Govt might not put Brexit bill back in Commons til after recess, sources have told us
@bbclaurak: Official source tells me there is just 'not enough political agreement yet'-this puts Brexit legistlation timetable under massive pressure
@bbclaurak: @Keir_Starmer says “This is further proof that the Government's Brexit strategy is in paralysis." - more on @daily_politics in a few mins0 -
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If you're receiving tax credits then you'll pass a credit check for a bundle.calum said:
Tax credit queries & gig economy self employedPulpstar said:
People doing self assessment will be on a bundle.calum said:
Only DWP I think - HMRC looks like it will still chargeScott_P said:
They are all being scrappedcalum said:I wonder how many other GOV helplines operate the same way?
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/self-assessment0 -
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Casino_Royale said:
In the first two examples, that nearly worked. Callaghan might have won had he gone in 1978 (he was somewhat unlucky with the Winter of Discontent) and Labour got their act together in the last 6 months of the 2005 Parliament, denying Cameron a majority.DavidL said:On topic if the government can maintain their arrangement with the DUP I think Mike is undoubtedly right. Fag end governments tend to hang on to the last in the hope something turns up anyway, see Labour 1974-9, 2005-2010 and the Tories 1992-7. So even without the FTPA I would expect that.
The only question is whether the arrangement with the DUP can be maintained. That may well bring us back to the last thread.
The 1992-1997 Parliament is the obvious outlier as the Tories were cruising for a bruising post Black Wednesday/Maastricht but waiting for the (very good) economic performance to become apparent was the right tactic.
God knows what would have happened to them had they gone to the country in 1995.
Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.0 -
Agree completely that any government would have done the same, a retail bank (as opposed to an investment bank) failing can and will cause a general bank run which could escalate exponentially within days and leave a right mess behind.Benpointer said:
Rcs is quite right - there was no sensible choice but to bail out Northern Rock, HBOS and RBS, and any Tory PM would have done the same. Those people who criticise GB so loudly for his actions would be even more vocifereous if he had let those banks go under and depositors lose their deposits.Sandpit said:
Don’t bloody go there. I had shares in that good bank!Nigelb said:
Quite.rcs1000 said:
OK. Government lets Northern Rock go bust. Millions of peoples' bank accounts are frozen, thousands of business accounts are frozen, Northern Rock is unable to meet its liabilities to other banks.HYUFD said:
People who use other banks panic: perhaps Barclays is the next Northern Rock? Massive lines outside other banks that might be insolvent. The interbank funding market dries up.
Tom's Hardware in Gateshead banked with Northern Rock. It can no longer make payroll to its employees as Northern Rock's bankruptcy has left it with frozen accounts. Its employees can't pay their mortgages as they haven't been paid.
This has a cascade effect. The employees of Tom's Hardware had their mortgages with Lloyds (which is having a funding crisis as people try to pull money out), and Lloyds has to announce that its number of non-performing mortgages has doubled.
These scenarios were played out in the Bank of England during the crisis. Letting a large retail bank go to the wall would have had diastrous knock on effects on the economy.
Now, does legislation need to be changed to make this kind of thing less likely in the future, perhaps with criminal liability for bank management that acts recklessly? Yes.
But the government and the Bank of England had no good choices in late 2007, 2008. Rescuing Northern Rock's depositors was the best bad option.
Although Lloyds - prior to getting strongarmed into bailing out HBOS - was probably the least likely of the UK banks to go under.
@HYUFD "The problem was bailing out all of them sent a message that capitalism nationalised the losses and privatised the profits" - try telling that to all those who held shares in HBOS, RBS and Lloyds in 2007-8!
My critisism of Gordon Brown is what on Earth he was doing running a £41,000,000,000 budget deficit (plus billions more in PFI) at the end of a decade and a half of a constantly growing economy?
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5922/economics/uk-budget-deficit-2/0 -
With SNP recovering steadily in the WM polling - SLAB in dissarry - SCON peaked - the SNP would welcome an early election.JPJ2 said:I agree that the next election is likely to be in 2022.
However, the SNP will make certain that they cannot be convincingly blamed for the Tories remaining in power, which means they would be willing to risk a further reduction in Westminster seats in order to bring down the Government if their votes were critical to doing that (worth noting that the latest polls indicate they would be more likely to gain rather than lose seats).
The reality is that the future of Scotland will, de facto, be decided by future Holyrood elections, not by Westminster ones.
A scenario of an SNP actual or near wipeout at Westminster, but a pro-independence majority at Holyrood followed by a Yes vote in another independence referendum, is entirely possible.0 -
The names these parties choose are hilarious. The 'democrats' whose main aim is to subvert a democratical decision, the 'radicals' who are the opposite of radical.0
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Lots of self-employed are or soon will be on UC. I gather that 'self-employed' status is sometimes a fiction to avoid signing on mainly because people who do that are treated so harshly/shabbily. Do a small amount of work, which is mostly declared to HMRC; claim housing benefit; claim a council tax discount; claim working tax credit, etc.calum said:
Tax credit queries & gig economy self employedPulpstar said:
People doing self assessment will be on a bundle.calum said:
Only DWP I think - HMRC looks like it will still chargeScott_P said:
They are all being scrappedcalum said:I wonder how many other GOV helplines operate the same way?
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/self-assessment
HMRC is an utter shower. The equivalent bodies in the USA have always had 0800 numbers. In fact, all organisations in the USA larger than a husband & wife business seem to offer free phone numbers.0 -
Will the Radicals be opposed by the Anti-Oxidants?Luckyguy1983 said:The names these parties choose are hilarious. The 'democrats' whose main aim is to subvert a democratical decision, the 'radicals' who are the opposite of radical.
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Indeed their motto should be "Freedom!"williamglenn said:
Will the Radicals be opposed by the Anti-Oxidants?Luckyguy1983 said:The names these parties choose are hilarious. The 'democrats' whose main aim is to subvert a democratical decision, the 'radicals' who are the opposite of radical.
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Yes, because it patently wasn't ready to roll. And several years later it is still not ready to roll. Where Osborne has made life more difficult was combining the introduction of UC and cuts in benefits. Any new system is easier if there is money to smooth the new edges.HYUFD said:
It was Osborne who insisted on the lengthy delay for UC payment Not IDSDavidL said:The problems with Verify are not unconnected with the problems with rolling out UC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41642044
One has to seriously wonder about the quality of civil servants in the DWP. The leadership through most of this period under IDS was laughably incompetent (at least you could laugh if if you were not dependent on benefits) but even so. The idea that a majority of the membership once thought that man was the one to lead them into a GE with a view to becoming PM is a deeply depressing one.0 -
Meanwhile in Turkey - this is like something out of a movie:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/18/the-threats-continue-of-retired-couple-chills-fellow-activists-in-turkey0 -
RPI inflation in the early months of 1979 was under 10% having been circa 8% throughout 1978.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Casino_Royale said:
In the first two examples, that nearly worked. Callaghan might have won had he gone in 1978 (he was somewhat unlucky with the Winter of Discontent) and Labour got their act together in the last 6 months of the 2005 Parliament, denying Cameron a majority.DavidL said:On topic if the government can maintain their arrangement with the DUP I think Mike is undoubtedly right. Fag end governments tend to hang on to the last in the hope something turns up anyway, see Labour 1974-9, 2005-2010 and the Tories 1992-7. So even without the FTPA I would expect that.
The only question is whether the arrangement with the DUP can be maintained. That may well bring us back to the last thread.
The 1992-1997 Parliament is the obvious outlier as the Tories were cruising for a bruising post Black Wednesday/Maastricht but waiting for the (very good) economic performance to become apparent was the right tactic.
God knows what would have happened to them had they gone to the country in 1995.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.0 -
What was it Peston said last week, May would be gone before Christmas because she can't deliver any form of Brexit?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Govt might not put Brexit bill back in Commons til after recess, sources have told us
@bbclaurak: Official source tells me there is just 'not enough political agreement yet'-this puts Brexit legistlation timetable under massive pressure
@bbclaurak: @Keir_Starmer says “This is further proof that the Government's Brexit strategy is in paralysis." - more on @daily_politics in a few mins0 -
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.0 -
Esther McVey showing why she should be in cabinet and be a contender to replace TPSGB.0
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It's a real problem ascribing responsibility for bad economic decisions, as the consequences can be immediate, or played out over decades. The most significant policies tend towards the latter.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspx
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
In a sense, chancellors are always driving with recourse mainly to the rear view mirror - which is why a degree of genuine prudence (unlike the ersatz Brownian version) is to be valued.0 -
Continuing the irregular Bitcoin discussion, this is another truly excellent article explaining the purpose of crypto currencies:
https://blog.chain.com/a-letter-to-jamie-dimon-de89d417cb800 -
Truth is lies, peace is war, love is hate.Luckyguy1983 said:The names these parties choose are hilarious. The 'democrats' whose main aim is to subvert a democratical decision, the 'radicals' who are the opposite of radical.
Too many modern politicians fail to understand that Orwell’s writings were supposed to be a warning, rather than an instruction manual.0 -
Not quite -Thatcher inherited 10.1% inflation and passed on 9.7% to John Major!DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.0 -
Really? I remember the planned power cuts for which we had a rota, but those were during the 1973-74 3 day week weren't they? Were there many power cuts after Feb 1974?DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Casino_Royale said:
In the first two examples, that nearly worked. Callaghan might have won had he gone in 1978 (he was somewhat unlucky with the Winter of Discontent) and Labour got their act together in the last 6 months of the 2005 Parliament, denying Cameron a majority.DavidL said:
The 1992-1997 Parliament is the obvious outlier as the Tories were cruising for a bruising post Black Wednesday/Maastricht but waiting for the (very good) economic performance to become apparent was the right tactic.
God knows what would have happened to them had they gone to the country in 1995.
Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.0 -
Fake News by you.DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
Inflation April 1979 - 10.1%
Inflation May 1979 - 10.3%
Inflation November 1990 - 9.7%
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/inflation-economics0 -
This new party is a joke, right? Or have I missed something?0
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McVey is good. I can't imagine why May hasn't put her back into Cabinet yet...TheScreamingEagles said:Esther McVey showing why she should be in cabinet and be a contender to replace TPSGB.
0 -
That is correct - though I used the April 79 figure given Thatcher took office on May 4th!TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake News by you.DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
Inflation May 1979 - 10.3%
Inflation November 1990 - 9.7%
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/inflation-economics0 -
To bore everyone yet again, I predict that Brexit 'aint gonna happen.DanSmith said:
What was it Peston said last week, May would be gone before Christmas because she can't deliver any form of Brexit?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Govt might not put Brexit bill back in Commons til after recess, sources have told us
@bbclaurak: Official source tells me there is just 'not enough political agreement yet'-this puts Brexit legistlation timetable under massive pressure
@bbclaurak: @Keir_Starmer says “This is further proof that the Government's Brexit strategy is in paralysis." - more on @daily_politics in a few mins0 -
It depends which month's figures you take as start and end. Admittedly it is angels dancing on pinheads stuff but the wider point remains that the Thatcher years were not times of low inflation that we got used to over the past decade or so.justin124 said:
Not quite -Thatcher inherited 10.1% inflation and passed on 9.7% to John Major!DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.0 -
JonathanD said:
McVey is good. I can't imagine why May hasn't put her back into Cabinet yet...TheScreamingEagles said:Esther McVey showing why she should be in cabinet and be a contender to replace TPSGB.
0 -
Because she's too weak and can't afford to sack cabinet ministers.JonathanD said:
McVey is good. I can't imagine why May hasn't put her back into Cabinet yet...TheScreamingEagles said:Esther McVey showing why she should be in cabinet and be a contender to replace TPSGB.
0 -
Corbyn is winning this PMQs.0
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It's kind-of revealing that Jamie Dimon made comments about Bitcoin, but the person trying to make a defence decided to move the conversation to crypto-currencies in general.Nigelb said:Continuing the irregular Bitcoin discussion, this is another truly excellent article explaining the purpose of crypto currencies:
https://blog.chain.com/a-letter-to-jamie-dimon-de89d417cb80
Bitcoin was designed for paying for things, but it's now pretty much a pure speculative ponzi. It's actually worse than a proper ponzi, because as well as late entrants having to pay for gains of early entrants, it's burning vast sums in mining costs just to keep going. The usefulness of Bitcoin for any practical purpose keeps going down, while its price keeps going up thanks to people who believe what they read on Zerohedge. At some point these things have to come back into alignment.0 -
Some impressive ring binder work behind the Prime Minister.0
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When people think about the effect of inflation they are most commonly remembering their experience of a combination of price inflation, pay rises, interest rates and house price inflationDecrepitJohnL said:
It depends which month's figures you take as start and end. Admittedly it is angels dancing on pinheads stuff but the wider point remains that the Thatcher years were not times of low inflation that we got used to over the past decade or so.justin124 said:
Not quite -Thatcher inherited 10.1% inflation and passed on 9.7% to John Major!DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.0 -
In the mid-1980s RPI inflation was similar to the 3.9% we have now - but Lawson's boom caused it to shoot up again in the late 80s.DecrepitJohnL said:
It depends which month's figures you take as start and end. Admittedly it is angels dancing on pinheads stuff but the wider point remains that the Thatcher years were not times of low inflation that we got used to over the past decade or so.justin124 said:
Not quite -Thatcher inherited 10.1% inflation and passed on 9.7% to John Major!DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.0 -
I'm getting bored with this. We should return to twice-weekly 15-minute PMQs.0
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Chinese President Xi Jumping lauds the success of 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' as a model for other countries and proposes a 2 stage socialist modernisation programme until 2050 focusing on the economy and environment. He also warns against separatist movements in Tibet and Hong Kong and promises China will remain open to trade and foreign investors
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-416478720 -
O/T A.B. De Villiers is going batshit crazy in the ODI against Bangladesh 173 not out from 101 balls.
On Sky Sports now.0 -
Why is the usefulness going down?edmundintokyo said:
It's kind-of revealing that Jamie Dimon made comments about Bitcoin, but the person trying to make a defence decided to move the conversation to crypto-currencies in general.Nigelb said:Continuing the irregular Bitcoin discussion, this is another truly excellent article explaining the purpose of crypto currencies:
https://blog.chain.com/a-letter-to-jamie-dimon-de89d417cb80
Bitcoin was designed for paying for things, but it's now pretty much a pure speculative ponzi. It's actually worse than a proper ponzi, because as well as late entrants having to pay for gains of early entrants, it's burning vast sums in mining costs just to keep going. The usefulness of Bitcoin for any practical purpose keeps going down, while its price keeps going up thanks to people who believe what they read on Zerohedge. At some point these things have to come back into alignment.0 -
It is the most authoritative I have seen him at PMqs , he certainly has improved.TheScreamingEagles said:Corbyn is winning this PMQs.
0 -
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He came out with a few rimshots as well.Yorkcity said:
It is the most authoritative I have seen him at PMqs , he certainly has improved.TheScreamingEagles said:Corbyn is winning this PMQs.
0 -
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Jezza getting more electable by the week.0
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He keeps going on about a billion quid whilst promising to pull half a trillion out his arse. The man is a lunatic.JonathanD said:0 -
I still think a form of Brexit will happen, but I don't think the current numbers in the Commons and this PM are going to be able to make it happen.rottenborough said:
To bore everyone yet again, I predict that Brexit 'aint gonna happen.DanSmith said:
What was it Peston said last week, May would be gone before Christmas because she can't deliver any form of Brexit?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Govt might not put Brexit bill back in Commons til after recess, sources have told us
@bbclaurak: Official source tells me there is just 'not enough political agreement yet'-this puts Brexit legistlation timetable under massive pressure
@bbclaurak: @Keir_Starmer says “This is further proof that the Government's Brexit strategy is in paralysis." - more on @daily_politics in a few mins0 -
The management of those banks still did quite nicely thank you after the bailoutsBenpointer said:
Rcs is quite right - there was no sensible choice but to bail out Northern Rock, HBOS and RBS, and any Tory PM would have done the same. Those people who criticise GB so loudly for his actions would be even more vocifereous if he had let those banks go under and depositors lose their deposits.Sandpit said:
Don’t bloody go there. I had shares in that good bank!Nigelb said:
Quite.rcs1000 said:
OK. Government lets Northern Rock go bust. Millions of peoples' bank accounts are frozen, thousands of business accounts are frozen, Northern Rock is unable to meet its liabilities to other banks.HYUFD said:
No it wouldn't, after all it was taxpayers money which bailed out Northern Rock. Though after that as I said the government would have had to intervene if any other banks and building societies got into trouble.
The problem was bailing out all of them sent a message that capitalism nationalised the losses and privatised the profits. As I said the US let Lehmans go bust to ensure that message did not fully apply there
People who use other banks panic: perhaps Barclays is the next Northern Rock? Massive lines outside other banks that might be insolvent. The interbank funding market dries up.
Tom's Hardware in Gateshead banked with Northern Rock. It can no longer make payroll to its employees as Northern Rock's bankruptcy has left it with frozen accounts. Its employees can't pay their mortgages as they haven't been paid.
This has a cascade effect. The employees of Tom's Hardware had their mortgages with Lloyds (which is having a funding crisis as people try to pull money out), and Lloyds has to announce that its number of non-performing mortgages has doubled.
These scenarios were played out in the Bank of England during the crisis. Letting a large retail bank go to the wall would have had diastrous knock on effects on the economy.
Now, does legislation need to be changed to make this kind of thing less likely in the future, perhaps with criminal liability for bank management that acts recklessly? Yes.
But the government and the Bank of England had no good choices in late 2007, 2008. Rescuing Northern Rock's depositors was the best bad option.
Although Lloyds - prior to getting strongarmed into bailing out HBOS - was probably the least likely of the UK banks to go under.
@HYUFD "The problem was bailing out all of them sent a message that capitalism nationalised the losses and privatised the profits" - try telling that to all those who held shares in HBOS, RBS and Lloyds in 2007-8!0 -
Scary.TOPPING said:Jezza getting more electable by the week.
0 -
Yes but compared to the other bunch of lunatics, he's the saner one.CopperSulphate said:
He keeps going on about a billion quid whilst promising to pull half a trillion out his arse. The man is a lunatic.JonathanD said:0 -
Until recently (well, today) the Chinese had learned the trick of regularly replacing their leaders rather than allowing the same dictator to rule for decades.HYUFD said:Chinese President Xi Jumping lauds the success of 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' as a model for other countries and proposes a 2 stage socialist modernisation programme until 2050 focusing on the economy and environment. He also warns against separatist movements in Tibet and Hong Kong and promises China will remain open to trade and foreign investors
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-41647872
0 -
If done properly it should ensure nobody loses all their benefits working for more than 16 hours a week, sadly Osborne insisted on the lengthy delay for payments which Gauke is having to tackleTheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, I've been saying a while UC has the potential to be the modern day poll tax.Yorkcity said:
Because some Conservative MPs will be listening to their constituents concerns.I would imagine in new rollout areas , their workload has shot through the roof.TheScreamingEagles said:
Why are Tory MPs rebelling at all.Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul: Fine analysis by @BethRigby: Tory abstentions would lose vote on Labour Universal Credit motion, so Tory whips will ask MPs not to vote
@JohnRentoul: @BethRigby But this time Labour whips will put up tellers for the Govt & force a division. Govt will ignore, but it will be embarrassing. At 7pm.
Don't they know HYUFD said it was all going fine and those on benefits vote Labour anyway.0 -
Lucky for her she didn't leave the month before:TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake News by you.DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
Inflation April 1979 - 10.1%
Inflation May 1979 - 10.3%
Inflation November 1990 - 9.7%
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/inflation-economics
Inflation October 1990 - 10.9%
The point is, she didn't really move the dial on inflation, did she?!0 -
Except if you're not fans of two data points, you should work out the average monthly inflation during her tenure and compare it to what came before.Benpointer said:
Lucky for her she didn't leave the month before:TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake News by you.DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
Inflation April 1979 - 10.1%
Inflation May 1979 - 10.3%
Inflation November 1990 - 9.7%
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/inflation-economics
Inflation October 1990 - 10.9%
The point is, she didn't really move the dial on inflation, did she?!0 -
JonathanD said:
Housing is the biggest personal expense but house price inflation does not get included in the Consumer Price Index.DecrepitJohnL said:
When people think about the effect of inflation they are most commonly remembering their experience of a combination of price inflation, pay rises, interest rates and house price inflationjustin124 said:
It depends which month's figures you take as start and end. Admittedly it is angels dancing on pinheads stuff but the wider point remains that the Thatcher years were not times of low inflation that we got used to over the past decade or so.DecrepitJohnL said:
Not quite -Thatcher inherited 10.1% inflation and passed on 9.7% to John Major!DavidL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DecrepitJohnL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
The B of E is supposed to take account if increased asset prices when considering interest rate rises but so far has allowed house prices (and equity shares) to rip.0 -
She removed the large structural reasons for high inflation and set the scene for the low inflation we've seen over the last 1/4 of a century.Benpointer said:
Lucky for her she didn't leave the month before:TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake News by you.DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
Inflation April 1979 - 10.1%
Inflation May 1979 - 10.3%
Inflation November 1990 - 9.7%
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/inflation-economics
Inflation October 1990 - 10.9%
The point is, she didn't really move the dial on inflation, did she?!0 -
If you can't beat Corbyn on the economy at PMQs then you have no business being Tory leader.0
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ha ha yeah right.JonathanD said:
Yes but compared to the other bunch of lunatics, he's the saner one.CopperSulphate said:
He keeps going on about a billion quid whilst promising to pull half a trillion out his arse. The man is a lunatic.JonathanD said:0 -
Major did the most to slash inflation, it was about 2% when he left office in 1997Benpointer said:
Lucky for her she didn't leave the month before:TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake News by you.DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
Inflation April 1979 - 10.1%
Inflation May 1979 - 10.3%
Inflation November 1990 - 9.7%
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/inflation-economics
Inflation October 1990 - 10.9%
The point is, she didn't really move the dial on inflation, did she?!0 -
It's now become "indicated we want" an implementation period. Big change from "there will be an..."0
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Oh God. It is Tredinnick. Banging on about elephants.0
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Guardian journalist puffing Labour leader shock.Scott_P said:0 -
This attack doesn't work if the Cons give up their reputation for economic competence. Which they have.CopperSulphate said:
He keeps going on about a billion quid whilst promising to pull half a trillion out his arse. The man is a lunatic.JonathanD said:0 -
Xi is now moving towards the Maoist faction in the Communist PartyDecrepitJohnL said:
Until recently (well, today) the Chinese had learned the trick of regularly replacing their leaders rather than allowing the same dictator to rule for decades.HYUFD said:Chinese President Xi Jumping lauds the success of 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' as a model for other countries and proposes a 2 stage socialist modernisation programme until 2050 focusing on the economy and environment. He also warns against separatist movements in Tibet and Hong Kong and promises China will remain open to trade and foreign investors
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-416478720 -
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JonathanD said:
She removed the large structural reasons for high inflation and set the scene for the low inflation we've seen over the last 1/4 of a century.Benpointer said:
Lucky for her she didn't leave the month before:TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake News by you.DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
Inflation April 1979 - 10.1%
Inflation May 1979 - 10.3%
Inflation November 1990 - 9.7%
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/inflation-economics
Inflation October 1990 - 10.9%
The point is, she didn't really move the dial on inflation, did she?!
Thatcher had to wait for Kenneth Clarke to sort out the economy when he became Chancellor under John Major.
0 -
Corbyn won the 2016 local elections, he lost the 2017 local and general elections.Yorkcity said:
The contrast with 2 years ago is remarkable.TOPPING said:Jezza getting more electable by the week.
If Cameron and Osborne had narrowly won the EU referendum Corbyn would be hitting them on austerity too while UKIP would still be a force snapping at the Tories heels0 -
Overall RPI inflation fell by more during the 1974 - 1979 Labour Government than during Thatcher's 11.5 years in office. Labour inherited 13.5% inflation in March 1974 and passed on 10.3%.Benpointer said:
Lucky for her she didn't leave the month before:TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake News by you.DecrepitJohnL said:
The first thing the Thatcher government did was to double VAT. That's a healthy dose of inflation right there. And Mrs Thatcher left with inflation higher than she inherited.DavidL said:
Not really. Inflation was rising very rapidly under Callaghan as various wage agreements fell apart: http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspxDecrepitJohnL said:
There is something odd about people's memories of the Callaghan government. You say inflation was rising out of control, yet it was higher under the preceding and following Conservative governments. Yesterday's Telegraph piece by Kemi attributed the 3-day week to Labour (and tbh it was several hours before this struck me). It is as if our collective consciousness has become distorted, perhaps by the reputation of the Thatcher governments.DavidL said:Brown was heading to defeat after the crash no matter when he went. He missed his opportunity in the early months of his Premiership although May's experience shows that that was perhaps not the no brainer that people thought at the time. The majority he inherited was substantially greater than May and it is possible, if not certain, that he would have held on with a much reduced majority if he had gone before the crash.
My recollection of 78/9 was that even before the Winter of Discontent there was a strong perception of drift and chaos in the government. Inflation was rising out of control, the public finances and services were perceived to be a mess and the Unions were thought to have way too much power. Only the divisive nature of Mrs T gave Labour any hope.
Of course it took the new government some time to get it under control. Pointing out it went higher is as silly as blaming Osborne for deficits given what he inherited.
The 3 day week is always associated with Heath in my mind but power cuts and lack of supply was a problem throughout the 70s until North sea oil came on tap.
Inflation April 1979 - 10.1%
Inflation May 1979 - 10.3%
Inflation November 1990 - 9.7%
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/inflation-economics
Inflation October 1990 - 10.9%
The point is, she didn't really move the dial on inflation, did she?!0 -
Here you go,
Average monthly inflation of the Labour government from March 1974 to April 1979 was 15.9%
Average monthly inflation during Mrs Thatcher's tenure as PM from May 1979 to November 1990 was 8.1%
So she effectively halved inflation.0 -
If my aunt had a ferret...HYUFD said:
Corbyn won the 2016 local elections, he lost the 2017 local and general elections.Yorkcity said:
The contrast with 2 years ago is remarkable.TOPPING said:Jezza getting more electable by the week.
If Cameron and Osborne had narrowly won the EU referendum Corbyn would be hitting them on austerity too while UKIP would still be a force snapping at the Tories heels
Your ifs are irrelevant. We are looking at a credible PM in waiting as far as a large number of voters is concerned.0 -
David_Evershed said:
<blockquote
Housing is the biggest personal expense but house price inflation does not get included in the Consumer Price Index.
The B of E is supposed to take account if increased asset prices when considering interest rate rises but so far has allowed house prices (and equity shares) to rip.0 -
That said, Ian Blackford had an even worse performance than Theresa May today.0
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I think the 'Beginning' and 'End' points are useful - Labour inherited significantly higher inflation from Heath than Thatcher did from Callaghan - and by the end of her time in office inflation was pretty well back to what she inherited!.TheScreamingEagles said:Here you go,
Average monthly inflation of the Labour government from March 1974 to April 1979 was 15.9%
Average monthly inflation during Mrs Thatcher's tenure as PM from May 1979 to November 1990 was 8.1%
So she effectively halved inflation.0 -
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