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edited October 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news for those those who took the 5/1 PB tip that Trump would not visit the UK this year

Z Ladbrokes price Jan 29 2017

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,834
    First :smiley:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Second! Like Corbyn, Remain & Yes!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,834
    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Corbyn, Remain & Yes!

    and like a good scottish tory!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,878
    The California wine country continues to burn out of control:
    http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Thousands-more-evacuated-as-Wine-Country-blazes-12269691.php#photo-14332361
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Corbyn, Remain & Yes!

    Were you not Remain yourself ?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    If this news is correct then I guess you might say that, like the Americans, after trying everything else we do the right thing.
    Trump is a jackass, but he is the USA head of state.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    A good call from TSE on the Trump visit. January seems like half a lifetime ago now!

    Catching up on earlier threads, what an excellent article and discussion from Mr Meeks yesterday morning. :+1:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    The California wine country continues to burn out of control:
    http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Thousands-more-evacuated-as-Wine-Country-blazes-12269691.php#photo-14332361

    Smokey wine's in vogue, don't ya know?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,567
    Bugger. I was on the other side of this bet.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,282
    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    What a shame.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, good bet. I didn't get on it, unfortunately.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    Whoever was President now would have to deal with the legacy of the hugely unentertaining Barack Obama: a nuclear armed North Korea.

    "Another shit sandwich, Mister/Madam President?"

    As it happens, I doubt Presdient Clinton would have said much different to Trump. She was always quite hawkish. But obviously had little sway for the previous eight years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,075
    Good morning, everyone.

    A good tip, alas that I didn't get on it. I think I thought betting on that either way was a bit of a minefield, but there we are.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,075
    Mr. Meeks, that "Treachery" headline made me think of the Steps cover of Tragedy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,757
    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    I thought his plan of boring the North Koreans into submission by having 235gb of "plans" stolen was quite innovative. A paperback book is about 2 mb. So I make that the equivalent of 117,500 books. Surely surrendering would be easier? Now, apparently, the Australians have chipped in as well. How much more can NK take?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    Mr Meeks will be along in 5, 6, 7, 8 to suggest we should stick with the EU: Better the Devil You Know....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,567
    MarqueeMark said:

    Mr Meeks will be along in 5, 6, 7, 8 to suggest we should stick with the EU: Better the Devil You Know....

    He's already here.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324
    It seems the UKIP element of the Conservative Party have now entered their McCarthyist phase We got the first hint from Iain Dale yesterday but now it's been taken up by the Mail and the the right wing faction within the Tory Party.

    Philip Hammond is likely to be the first to go but after him expect those who aren't idealogically pure to fall like skittles. The UK brand is being trashed at an astonishing rate and ignoring the politics it's very sad to see..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    DavidL said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    I thought his plan of boring the North Koreans into submission by having 235gb of "plans" stolen was quite innovative. A paperback book is about 2 mb. So I make that the equivalent of 117,500 books. Surely surrendering would be easier? Now, apparently, the Australians have chipped in as well. How much more can NK take?
    They will pass them to their chums the Iranians. 10,000 Revolutionary Guards - that's less than 12 books each. Knock off a bit of time for prayers - they would still have them done in a fortnight.

    After all, the Revolutionary Guards have form, sticking back together the shredded chaff of secret documents when they stormed the US Embassy in Tehran....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    It seems the UKIP element of the Conservative Party have now entered their McCarthyist phase We got the first hint from Iain Dale yesterday but now it's been taken up by the Mail and the the right wing faction within the Tory Party.

    Philip Hammond is likely to be the first to go but after him expect those who aren't idealogically pure to fall like skittles. The UK brand is being trashed at an astonishing rate and ignoring the politics it's very sad to see..

    Punishing the innocent is fairly normal at this stage in a project.

    The revolution will eat itself. The country has to wake up in a pool of vomit in piss stained trousers before it can sober up to the realities of Brexit. It has to hit rock bottom for reality to bite.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Roger said:

    It seems the UKIP element of the Conservative Party have now entered their McCarthyist phase We got the first hint from Iain Dale yesterday but now it's been taken up by the Mail and the the right wing faction within the Tory Party.

    Philip Hammond is likely to be the first to go but after him expect those who aren't idealogically pure to fall like skittles. The UK brand is being trashed at an astonishing rate and ignoring the politics it's very sad to see..

    Punishing the innocent is fairly normal at this stage in a project.

    The revolution will eat itself. The country has to wake up in a pool of vomit in piss stained trousers before it can sober up to the realities of Brexit. It has to hit rock bottom for reality to bite.

    The Brexit revolution won't be complete until remainers have been stripped of their civil rights and reduced to a helot style servile underclass
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,607
    Ahem tipster of the year.

    Looking back at that thread from January, it was another sign Mrs May had all the political judgment of a sheep.

    What kind of idiot thought it was a good idea to even think about inviting Donald Trump to the Tory conference.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    'Leaver' and batshit mental has become a tautology
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,075
    Mr. Eagles, we don't have tipster of the year any more. Or the 251 on Verstappen last year would've got me it ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,607
    edited October 2017
    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    Actually I think his appointment of John Kelly, James Mattis, and H.R. McMaster might turn out to be very astute (for the rest of us at least)

    One former official even speculated that Kelly and Secretary of Defense James Mattis have discussed what they would do in the event Trump ordered a nuclear first strike. “Would they tackle him?” the person said

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/918205886065201152
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    Actually I think his appointment of John Kelly, James Mattis, and H.R. McMaster might turn out to be very astute (for the rest of us at least)

    One former official even speculated that Kelly and Secretary of Defense James Mattis have discussed what they would do in the event Trump ordered a nuclear first strike. “Would they tackle him?” the person said

    ttps://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/918205886065201152
    Yep, the generals know what they’re doing, and they’re some of the very few people that Trump trusts outside his old inner circle.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    MarqueeMark said:

    Mr Meeks will be along in 5, 6, 7, 8 to suggest we should stick with the EU: Better the Devil You Know....

    You and Mr Dancer are buggers - I’m on my way to an interview humming bloody Steps songs!!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,607
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, that "Treachery" headline made me think of the Steps cover of Tragedy.

    I see Steps with The Vengaboys in December.

    I'm so excited.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,075
    Mr. Sandpit, so, you're saying the songs are causing a Chain Reaction in your brain?

    Best of luck :)

    Mr. Eagles, The Vengaboys? *sighs*
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,547
    edited October 2017
    I suppose trump is not the craziest president in the world while Duterte is in office though - the bbc reports on his outbursts and activity have been frantic all year as they lead with condemnation and controversy over his 'kill drug dealers in the street' policy, before having to include his is still popular. His ratings have finally dipped a bit though apparently.

    And in other news, Iraq orders the arrest of various kurdish officials over their referendum. Can't be long before Spain is doing similar.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,197
    MarqueeMark said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    Whoever was President now would have to deal with the legacy of the hugely unentertaining Barack Obama: a nuclear armed North Korea.

    "Another shit sandwich, Mister/Madam President?"

    As it happens, I doubt Presdient Clinton would have said much different to Trump. She was always quite hawkish. But obviously had little sway for the previous eight years.
    As a matter of interest, what should President Obama have done to prevent North Korea from getting nuclear weapons?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,547
    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/918376140405923840
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,607
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    I remember the days when people praised Mrs May's style of cabinet and said criticised Dave's style of cabinet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,607
    That said, during my lifetime I think the only time that the PM and Chancellor weren't at open warfare was Thatcher & Howe, Major & Lamont, until he was sacked, Major & Clarke, and Cameron & Osborne
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,929
    Ah, the Trump State visit, yet another example of May's desperately poor political judgement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,878
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    Whoever was President now would have to deal with the legacy of the hugely unentertaining Barack Obama: a nuclear armed North Korea.

    "Another shit sandwich, Mister/Madam President?"

    As it happens, I doubt Presdient Clinton would have said much different to Trump. She was always quite hawkish. But obviously had little sway for the previous eight years.
    As a matter of interest, what should President Obama have done to prevent North Korea from getting nuclear weapons?
    A good question - and the original comment suggests that Obama was left with some sort of golden legacy by his predecessor...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,699
    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Nobody listened to Cassandra either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,878
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    The California wine country continues to burn out of control:
    http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Thousands-more-evacuated-as-Wine-Country-blazes-12269691.php#photo-14332361

    Smokey wine's in vogue, don't ya know?
    Some might say 'too soon'...

    Btw, did you get my PM ?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,929
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That said, during my lifetime I think the only time that the PM and Chancellor weren't at open warfare was Thatcher & Howe, Major & Lamont, until he was sacked, Major & Clarke, and Cameron & Osborne

    Looking back to the 70s and early 80s I don't remember Chancellors having the power they have now. We used to talk about 3 great offices of state and they were considered broadly equal. But nowadays Chancellor is clearly above the other 2 in importance. It felt like the change happened with Brown.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,699
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Or Hammond could resign and say 'this is heading towards a disaster' and then spend the next two years laughing on the backbench.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,929
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    Macron stole a march on May by inviting Trump to Paris for Bastille Day in July with full pomp and ceremony and Trump has been notably far more pro French ever since. The EU is already annoyed with us we cannot afford to annoy the US administration too especially as after the EU the US is the UK's biggest trading partner
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    kle4 said:

    I suppose trump is not the craziest president in the world while Duterte is in office though - the bbc reports on his outbursts and activity have been frantic all year as they lead with condemnation and controversy over his 'kill drug dealers in the street' policy, before having to include his is still popular. His ratings have finally dipped a bit though apparently.

    And in other news, Iraq orders the arrest of various kurdish officials over their referendum. Can't be long before Spain is doing similar.

    There’s still a surprising, some may say disturbing, level of support for Duterte in the Philippines and among expatriate communities. There was a sense that the drug problem was close to causing a complete breakdown of society, and that something had to be done about the gangs and dealers even if it meant going in heavy-handed.

    We are hearing of similar drug issues in the USA and in parts of Britain, it’s a global problem.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,607
    Monksfield said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That said, during my lifetime I think the only time that the PM and Chancellor weren't at open warfare was Thatcher & Howe, Major & Lamont, until he was sacked, Major & Clarke, and Cameron & Osborne

    Looking back to the 70s and early 80s I don't remember Chancellors having the power they have now. We used to talk about 3 great offices of state and they were considered broadly equal. But nowadays Chancellor is clearly above the other 2 in importance. It felt like the change happened with Brown.
    I went to an event a few years ago, and it was said that Denis Healey was the first power Chancellor, not because he wanted to be, but because of his personality and the fact the IMF were involved.

    Coupled by Jim Callaghan's temperament who knew the good work that Healey was doing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Or Hammond could resign and say 'this is heading towards a disaster' and then spend the next two years laughing on the backbench.
    He could but his political career would be over for good
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,699
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    Actually I think his appointment of John Kelly, James Mattis, and H.R. McMaster might turn out to be very astute (for the rest of us at least)

    One former official even speculated that Kelly and Secretary of Defense James Mattis have discussed what they would do in the event Trump ordered a nuclear first strike. “Would they tackle him?” the person said

    ttps://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/918205886065201152
    Yep, the generals know what they’re doing, and they’re some of the very few people that Trump trusts outside his old inner circle.
    It is high time for the 25th Amendment.

    Tillerson can co-ordinate this constitutionally sanction coup within the Cabinet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,547
    Monksfield said:

    Ah, the Trump State visit, yet another example of May's desperately poor political judgement.

    The offer was made too soon, but frankly people lost their head over it, particularly since he's been received similarly in other places.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,410
    They would be sacking Hammond to rid themselves of the last vestiges of their reputation for economic competence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    edited October 2017
    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,547
    HYUFD said:

    Macron stole a march on May by inviting Trump to Paris for Bastille Day in July with full pomp and ceremony and Trump has been notably far more pro French ever since. The EU is already annoyed with us we cannot afford to annoy the US administration too especially as after the EU the US is the UK's biggest trading partner

    Trump does seem the sort who lavish attention and formal praise wins him over.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose trump is not the craziest president in the world while Duterte is in office though - the bbc reports on his outbursts and activity have been frantic all year as they lead with condemnation and controversy over his 'kill drug dealers in the street' policy, before having to include his is still popular. His ratings have finally dipped a bit though apparently.

    And in other news, Iraq orders the arrest of various kurdish officials over their referendum. Can't be long before Spain is doing similar.

    There’s still a surprising, some may say disturbing, level of support for Duterte in the Philippines and among expatriate communities. There was a sense that the drug problem was close to causing a complete breakdown of society, and that something had to be done about the gangs and dealers even if it meant going in heavy-handed.

    We are hearing of similar drug issues in the USA and in parts of Britain, it’s a global problem.
    If you went to many British council estates you would find support for shooting drugs barons on the spot certainly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,547
    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    HYUFD said:

    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
    Her best chance of surviving a challenge might be to replace Hammond with a Leaver - Gove maybe.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,880
    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    Disagree - May's weakness is still on her Brexit flank I think.
    For now Remainers will worry that challenging May's leadership is likely to give them a leader keener on a harder Brexit.

    The exception I think might be Boris - his personal popularity among might give him more flexibility?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Macron stole a march on May by inviting Trump to Paris for Bastille Day in July with full pomp and ceremony and Trump has been notably far more pro French ever since. The EU is already annoyed with us we cannot afford to annoy the US administration too especially as after the EU the US is the UK's biggest trading partner

    Trump does seem the sort who lavish attention and formal praise wins him over.
    Exactly it was a very shrewd move by Macron
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,075
    Mr. kle4, that was a very good feature of their government. But it is rare for two men at or near the top to co-operate so fully. (In Tacitus' writings of Nero's time, he remarked how unusual it was for Burrus and Seneca [head of the Praetorians and an orator] to work together so well in trying to steer Nero away from darkness).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,410
    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,880
    HYUFD said:

    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
    I think you're right.
    Davis or Boris might be a best case scenario.

    It could be someone like Leadsom or Patel - who really don't have the experience to pull this off, but seem very confident in their abilities.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,761
    HYUFD said:

    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
    A leadership election with Hammond v Any Leaver in the final ballot, and the Leaver ought to win easily. But if it was Loathsome again, perhaps not...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,547
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose trump is not the craziest president in the world while Duterte is in office though - the bbc reports on his outbursts and activity have been frantic all year as they lead with condemnation and controversy over his 'kill drug dealers in the street' policy, before having to include his is still popular. His ratings have finally dipped a bit though apparently.

    And in other news, Iraq orders the arrest of various kurdish officials over their referendum. Can't be long before Spain is doing similar.

    There’s still a surprising, some may say disturbing, level of support for Duterte in the Philippines and among expatriate communities. There was a sense that the drug problem was close to causing a complete breakdown of society, and that something had to be done about the gangs and dealers even if it meant going in heavy-handed.

    We are hearing of similar drug issues in the USA and in parts of Britain, it’s a global problem.
    If you went to many British council estates you would find support for shooting drugs barons on the spot certainly
    Indeed, that's why duterte having support doesn't surprise me. The funniest bbc report was the one where he said he'd kill his son if involved in drug trafficking, and it was 8-9 paragraphs talking about his controversial policies and a final one saying he was popular, or the one leading on protests agains him before then slipping in a protest in support was larger.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,699
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    We are in Corn Laws territory imho.

    It is even possible there will be a split across the party if a ultra hard, no deal Brexit looks close late next year.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,880
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    Yes - I think it's wise for leaders to pick a chancellor who is personally very loyal.
    That's why I think choosing McDonnell was a wise decision for Corbyn... even though someone like Angela Eagle was better qualified.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,880
    One quick thought on the Hammond replacement speculation...

    Jeremy Hunt. His conversion to Brexit seems well-timed.
    I wonder if he is angling to get a more senior job, or to go for the leadership itself?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
    Her best chance of surviving a challenge might be to replace Hammond with a Leaver - Gove maybe.
    Possibly though Fallon would ease Remainer concerns of Hammond was removed more than a Leaver like Gove though if Boris becomes PM Gove would likely be his Chancellor
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    The problem is a small number of MPs and a larger group of the media who are in Stop-Brexit-At-Any-Cost mode. They’re showing little sign of giving up - even if their crusade ultimately ends in a no-deal crash out of the EU.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    It's been said numerous times now, by a few contributors, that Brexit is demonstrably too complex to deliver, never mind in a two year period. The GE was an attempt to reduce that complexity, albeit it only marginally, by decoupling the Brexit and electoral cycle and by imposing some consistency of vision for the end-game on the governing party. As such, it was half successful and half very unsuccessful.

    One positive factor had been that the EU27 and the Commission were not adding to the complexity by pushing different agenda. That is now starting to fracture if press reports are to be believed.

    On balance, the complexity is now higher than just after the referendum for the simple reason that the A50 clock was started prematurely.

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.

    How many "promising younger MPs" are there on the Tory benches? Do they have names?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
    I think you're right.
    Davis or Boris might be a best case scenario.

    It could be someone like Leadsom or Patel - who really don't have the experience to pull this off, but seem very confident in their abilities.
    I think MPs would likely put Davis and Boris to the membership or even pick Davis unopposed on the basis he stands down on completion of Brexit talks
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,410
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
    A leadership election with Hammond v Any Leaver in the final ballot, and the Leaver ought to win easily. But if it was Loathsome again, perhaps not...
    A positively May-ite tendency (or perhaps a Hill-ite one) to know in advance how any particular poll, called in a highly febrile environment, will turn out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    edited October 2017
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
    A leadership election with Hammond v Any Leaver in the final ballot, and the Leaver ought to win easily. But if it was Loathsome again, perhaps not...
    Leadsom won't get anywhere near the final 2 this time although if she did even she would beat Hammond amongst the membership
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    Whoever was President now would have to deal with the legacy of the hugely unentertaining Barack Obama: a nuclear armed North Korea.

    "Another shit sandwich, Mister/Madam President?"

    As it happens, I doubt Presdient Clinton would have said much different to Trump. She was always quite hawkish. But obviously had little sway for the previous eight years.
    As a matter of interest, what should President Obama have done to prevent North Korea from getting nuclear weapons?
    The simple truth is that Obama was early on seen as a toothless lightweight, a President who could be relied on to never get truly tough. Trump may be crazy, but he is crazy in a way you can't ignore. He has alluded to using his own nukes. And now China has started applying economic sanctions on North Korea. Coincidence?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose trump is not the craziest president in the world while Duterte is in office though - the bbc reports on his outbursts and activity have been frantic all year as they lead with condemnation and controversy over his 'kill drug dealers in the street' policy, before having to include his is still popular. His ratings have finally dipped a bit though apparently.

    And in other news, Iraq orders the arrest of various kurdish officials over their referendum. Can't be long before Spain is doing similar.

    There’s still a surprising, some may say disturbing, level of support for Duterte in the Philippines and among expatriate communities. There was a sense that the drug problem was close to causing a complete breakdown of society, and that something had to be done about the gangs and dealers even if it meant going in heavy-handed.

    We are hearing of similar drug issues in the USA and in parts of Britain, it’s a global problem.
    If you went to many British council estates you would find support for shooting drugs barons on the spot certainly
    Indeed, that's why duterte having support doesn't surprise me. The funniest bbc report was the one where he said he'd kill his son if involved in drug trafficking, and it was 8-9 paragraphs talking about his controversial policies and a final one saying he was popular, or the one leading on protests agains him before then slipping in a protest in support was larger.
    Yes he is a populist but he knows what is popular
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.

    How many "promising younger MPs" are there on the Tory benches? Do they have names?
    Rory Stewart, Tom Tugenhadt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jonny Mercer for example
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose trump is not the craziest president in the world while Duterte is in office though - the bbc reports on his outbursts and activity have been frantic all year as they lead with condemnation and controversy over his 'kill drug dealers in the street' policy, before having to include his is still popular. His ratings have finally dipped a bit though apparently.

    And in other news, Iraq orders the arrest of various kurdish officials over their referendum. Can't be long before Spain is doing similar.

    There’s still a surprising, some may say disturbing, level of support for Duterte in the Philippines and among expatriate communities. There was a sense that the drug problem was close to causing a complete breakdown of society, and that something had to be done about the gangs and dealers even if it meant going in heavy-handed.

    We are hearing of similar drug issues in the USA and in parts of Britain, it’s a global problem.
    If you went to many British council estates you would find support for shooting drugs barons on the spot certainly
    Indeed, that's why duterte having support doesn't surprise me. The funniest bbc report was the one where he said he'd kill his son if involved in drug trafficking, and it was 8-9 paragraphs talking about his controversial policies and a final one saying he was popular, or the one leading on protests agains him before then slipping in a protest in support was larger.
    Yes he is a populist but he knows what is popular
    And getting drug dealers and gun-toting gang members off the streets - by any means necessary - is a very popular policy with everyone who isn’t a drug dealer or a gang member.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/918382239293038592
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    rkrkrk said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    Yes - I think it's wise for leaders to pick a chancellor who is personally very loyal.
    That's why I think choosing McDonnell was a wise decision for Corbyn... even though someone like Angela Eagle was better qualified.
    Angela Eagle? Really? That's like suggesting you get somebody from Norfolk as Chancellor, becuase they have more fingers to count on...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,607
    MarqueeMark said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    Yes - I think it's wise for leaders to pick a chancellor who is personally very loyal.
    That's why I think choosing McDonnell was a wise decision for Corbyn... even though someone like Angela Eagle was better qualified.
    Angela Eagle? Really? That's like suggesting you get somebody from Norfolk as Chancellor, becuase they have more fingers to count on...
    You do know she worked as an economist for the CBI?

    But what do the CBI know about the economy? I know they've annoyed Leavers but still.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Monksfield said:

    Ah, the Trump State visit, yet another example of May's desperately poor political judgement.

    Yet Macron gets no criticism from the left wing hypocrisy merchants.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    The problem is a small number of MPs and a larger group of the media who are in Stop-Brexit-At-Any-Cost mode. They’re showing little sign of giving up - even if their crusade ultimately ends in a no-deal crash out of the EU.
    Their legacy will not be to prevent Brexit, but ultimatley only to inflict a weaker financial settlement for the UK. Trying to tie our negtiators' hands may leave them with a smug self-satisfaction, but it is a dumb thing to do.

    They really need to think "WTF are they doing....?"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,350
    I think Philip Hammond is safe-ish. Surprisngly so. Those interested in modern Chinese history will see the Conservative Party is in full Maoist Cultural Revolution mode. Hammond is the Zhou Enlai figure who ensured the trains kept running through the chaos.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    Offtopic, but more fun than the endless Brexit hamster wheel:

    SpaceX have done it again, this time flying an already-flown rocket to put a communications satellite in high orbit, before landing the first stage back again. The second launch this week, and the 12th successful landing (with no failures) this year. Truly extraordinary achievement.
    https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/11/16455292/spacex-live-stream-time-falcon-9-launch-echostar-105-ses-11-reusable-rocket
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,757
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    OK so he threatens world peace. But have to admit that the Trump Presidency has been hugely entertaining. I assumed that he would at least try to grow into the role (nope) or appoint sensible advisors (nope)

    I thought his plan of boring the North Koreans into submission by having 235gb of "plans" stolen was quite innovative. A paperback book is about 2 mb. So I make that the equivalent of 117,500 books. Surely surrendering would be easier? Now, apparently, the Australians have chipped in as well. How much more can NK take?
    They will pass them to their chums the Iranians. 10,000 Revolutionary Guards - that's less than 12 books each. Knock off a bit of time for prayers - they would still have them done in a fortnight.

    After all, the Revolutionary Guards have form, sticking back together the shredded chaff of secret documents when they stormed the US Embassy in Tehran....
    That was a brilliant scene in Argo. It was one of those real world things where you knew what was going to happen and yet the tension was so great it was almost hard to watch.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.

    How many "promising younger MPs" are there on the Tory benches? Do they have names?
    Rather more than on the LD bench!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,880
    MarqueeMark said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    Yes - I think it's wise for leaders to pick a chancellor who is personally very loyal.
    That's why I think choosing McDonnell was a wise decision for Corbyn... even though someone like Angela Eagle was better qualified.
    Angela Eagle? Really? That's like suggesting you get somebody from Norfolk as Chancellor, becuase they have more fingers to count on...
    She'd been a Minister at the Treasury before, been Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, member of Treasury Select Committee, worked at the CBI as well as some trade unions, studied PPE... she is very qualified.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    felix said:

    Monksfield said:

    Ah, the Trump State visit, yet another example of May's desperately poor political judgement.

    Yet Macron gets no criticism from the left wing hypocrisy merchants.

    Macron got a huge amount of criticism from the left in France and his ratings fell precipitously, though they are now rising again. What Macron did, though, that May never did, was establish himself as independent of Trump. He spoke out loudly and very critically over the US's withdrawal from the Paris climate accord. And who can forget this:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/macron-swerves-trump-merkel_us_5927ea41e4b06f608053826d


  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.

    How many "promising younger MPs" are there on the Tory benches? Do they have names?
    Rory Stewart, Tom Tugenhadt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jonny Mercer for example
    Kemi Badenoch is more impressive than all of them, and more importantly a robust Conservative.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    FF43 said:

    I think Philip Hammond is safe-ish. Surprisngly so. Those interested in modern Chinese history will see the Conservative Party is in full Maoist Cultural Revolution mode. Hammond is the Zhou Enlai figure who ensured the trains kept running through the chaos.

    Hammond is not what we need now. He has a view of Brexit, quite possibly the right one, which means he will never have the freedom he needs to do the job he wants to do. Remain lost the referendum and should get out of the way. Johnson and Gove should be left to deliver the sunlit Brexit uplands with no downsides they promised, Fox should be lining up all the fantastic FTAs we were promised would be ready for the day of EU departure; and they should be held to account if they fail.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,734
    Recidivist said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Roger said:

    It seems the UKIP element of the Conservative Party have now entered their McCarthyist phase We got the first hint from Iain Dale yesterday but now it's been taken up by the Mail and the the right wing faction within the Tory Party.

    Philip Hammond is likely to be the first to go but after him expect those who aren't idealogically pure to fall like skittles. The UK brand is being trashed at an astonishing rate and ignoring the politics it's very sad to see..

    Punishing the innocent is fairly normal at this stage in a project.

    The revolution will eat itself. The country has to wake up in a pool of vomit in piss stained trousers before it can sober up to the realities of Brexit. It has to hit rock bottom for reality to bite.

    The Brexit revolution won't be complete until remainers have been stripped of their civil rights and reduced to a helot style servile underclass
    Just a couple of Mail headlines away from rocks thrown through the windows of Aldi & Lidl, Anna Soubry & Gina Miller paraded through the streets, heads shaven, Parris & Cleggy strung up. What larks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.

    How many "promising younger MPs" are there on the Tory benches? Do they have names?
    Rory Stewart, Tom Tugenhadt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jonny Mercer for example
    Kemi Badenoch is more impressive than all of them, and more importantly a robust Conservative.
    Kemi could be promoted too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    I suppose trump is not the craziest president in the world while Duterte is in office though - the bbc reports on his outbursts and activity have been frantic all year as they lead with condemnation and controversy over his 'kill drug dealers in the street' policy, before having to include his is still popular. His ratings have finally dipped a bit though apparently.

    And in other news, Iraq orders the arrest of various kurdish officials over their referendum. Can't be long before Spain is doing similar.

    There’s still a surprising, some may say disturbing, level of support for Duterte in the Philippines and among expatriate communities. There was a sense that the drug problem was close to causing a complete breakdown of society, and that something had to be done about the gangs and dealers even if it meant going in heavy-handed.

    We are hearing of similar drug issues in the USA and in parts of Britain, it’s a global problem.
    If you went to many British council estates you would find support for shooting drugs barons on the spot certainly
    Indeed, that's why duterte having support doesn't surprise me. The funniest bbc report was the one where he said he'd kill his son if involved in drug trafficking, and it was 8-9 paragraphs talking about his controversial policies and a final one saying he was popular, or the one leading on protests agains him before then slipping in a protest in support was larger.
    Yes he is a populist but he knows what is popular
    And getting drug dealers and gun-toting gang members off the streets - by any means necessary - is a very popular policy with everyone who isn’t a drug dealer or a gang member.
    Agreed
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,997
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    The problem is a small number of MPs and a larger group of the media who are in Stop-Brexit-At-Any-Cost mode. They’re showing little sign of giving up - even if their crusade ultimately ends in a no-deal crash out of the EU.
    Their legacy will not be to prevent Brexit, but ultimatley only to inflict a weaker financial settlement for the UK. Trying to tie our negtiators' hands may leave them with a smug self-satisfaction, but it is a dumb thing to do.

    They really need to think "WTF are they doing....?"
    Indeed. It’s an extraordinary situation that, as Britain goes through the most difficult negotiation in decades, so many Britons in the media give the impression of trying to actively sabotage the proceedings or to play for the other team.

    Everyone just needs to shut up and let the negotiation teams do their job without a minute-by-minute commentary. It’s going to be difficult enough for them to get through everything in the timescale anyway.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,757
    kle4 said:

    Monksfield said:

    Ah, the Trump State visit, yet another example of May's desperately poor political judgement.

    The offer was made too soon, but frankly people lost their head over it, particularly since he's been received similarly in other places.
    Of course he has. He is, for good or ill, the President of the United States for goodness sake.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Your morning tweet to remind you that far too many Leavers are batshit mental:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/918359682963603456

    And the alternative view

    https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/918372494536560640

    How long can we continue with the cabinet in open warfare via the press?
    Either a challenge is made to may soon after someone is fired, or she manages to defeat them and the endless briefings stop after a reshuffle. Hard to see the latter happening, everyone is mouthing off.
    Increasingly it looks like either Hammond or Boris will have to be fired and with the latter the more popular of the two with Tory members and voters it looks like it will have to be the Chancellor, Michael Fallon would be a good replacement and a reshuffle could also promote some promising younger MPs.
    Sacking Hammond will be the cue for open revolt by Tory remainers. May won't last 5 minutes.
    80% of Tory voters and members are now Leavers, as are a clear majority of Tory MPs now too if Tory Remainer MPs try and launch a vote of no confidence in May and she loses it she would be replaced by a Leaver like Davis or Boris and they would lose a Remainer PM
    A leadership election with Hammond v Any Leaver in the final ballot, and the Leaver ought to win easily. But if it was Loathsome again, perhaps not...
    Leadsom won't get anywhere near the final 2 this time although if she did even she would beat Hammond amongst the membership
    Don't knock Leadsom - she's a mother remember
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    rkrkrk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    Yes - I think it's wise for leaders to pick a chancellor who is personally very loyal.
    That's why I think choosing McDonnell was a wise decision for Corbyn... even though someone like Angela Eagle was better qualified.
    Angela Eagle? Really? That's like suggesting you get somebody from Norfolk as Chancellor, becuase they have more fingers to count on...
    She'd been a Minister at the Treasury before, been Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, member of Treasury Select Committee, worked at the CBI as well as some trade unions, studied PPE... she is very qualified.
    So no practical experience of working for an organisation that has to survive in a competitive market. Great.
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    rkrkrk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I always liked that Cameron and Osborne seemed in lockstep. Even if didn't like what they were doing, they seemed like a genuine team.

    It was so refreshing not having to worry about or second guess or try to read the tealeaves about what was happening behind the closed doors of No. 10. That counted for a lot, nationally, I'd warrant.

    Now? Well at least with Blair/Brown it was only Blair/Brown. Now it is everyone.
    Yes - I think it's wise for leaders to pick a chancellor who is personally very loyal.
    That's why I think choosing McDonnell was a wise decision for Corbyn... even though someone like Angela Eagle was better qualified.
    Angela Eagle? Really? That's like suggesting you get somebody from Norfolk as Chancellor, becuase they have more fingers to count on...
    She'd been a Minister at the Treasury before, been Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, member of Treasury Select Committee, worked at the CBI as well as some trade unions, studied PPE... she is very qualified.
    https://www.ft.com/content/09dd1fcc-fba3-334e-ac3e-901a38391599 - Angela Eagle hasn't got a clue.
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