politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking up the pieces. Disintegrating Europe

This looks an important article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/08/post-brexit-invisible-border-is-impossible-says-irish-report

“It is probably somewhat naive to believe that a new and entirely unique arrangement can be negotiated and applied to the EU/UK land frontier.”

The report suggests local frontier points will have to be agreed with the UK, and says it is “not inconceivable” there will be eight crossing points, including a permanent customs post on the M1 between Dublin and Belfast.

The report will make sober reading for Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who came to office this summer warning that Ireland would not design a border for the Brexiteers.

It makes plain that customs checks on the south side of the border will be unavoidable under EU law.

The leak, which comes as the fifth round of Brexit talks start in Brussels, could change the balance in negotiations and put pressure on EU leaders to help Ireland find a solution.

Up to now the EU’s efforts have been focused on putting pressure on the UK to come up with a means of achieving the “seamless and frictionless border” that Theresa May and Varadkar’s predecessor Enda Kenny had promised after the Brexit vote.

A bit of reality leaking in, it seems, with Ireland at least, if not the EU27 as a whole, realising that they can't simply ignore the damage done to themselves if there's no deal. But I fear it's getting very late indeed; it would have been better for everyone if the EU had opened substantive talks on the future relationship with the UK immediately after the referendum result, instead of not even starting now, nearly 18 months later.

Richard_Nabavi said:

A bit of reality leaking in, it seems, with Ireland at least, if not the EU27 as a whole, realising that they can't simply ignore the damage done to themselves if there's no deal. But I fear it's getting very late indeed; it would have been better for everyone if the EU had opened substantive talks on the future relationship with the UK immediately after the referendum result, instead of not even starting now, nearly 18 months later.

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Feck.

You knew it would end this way David, it always does.

2-2 against Slovenia away from home is not a bad result. It is those first 4 games that killed us. TBH there is not one international class player in this team. Strachan has done remarkable things with a very ordinary squad. But I suspect that is it for him.

Yes for sure he will go. Again if only we had not let England score with the last kick of the ball, or played like a bunch of girls blouses in the early games.
I think he relied too much on journeymen from English championship etc. He should have been looking at more players playing in Scotland. I personally will be glad to see him go.

williamglenn said:

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Ireland are stuffed then, aren't they? As things stand, on March 29th 2019 the borders will, under EU law, have to go up. They've made no plans to set up the infrastructure, and, even if they had, as the article makes clear their economy will be decimated. And yet the EU27 still refuse to talk about the ongoing relationship.

The fact that it will also be a disaster for Northern Ireland is hardly going to be much consolation for them, but, if they won't discuss customs and tariff arrangements, then what on earth can the UK do?

williamglenn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A bit of reality leaking in, it seems, with Ireland at least, if not the EU27 as a whole, realising that they can't simply ignore the damage done to themselves if there's no deal. But I fear it's getting very late indeed; it would have been better for everyone if the EU had opened substantive talks on the future relationship with the UK immediately after the referendum result, instead of not even starting now, nearly 18 months later.

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Could be achieved through an FTA, surely?

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A bit of reality leaking in, it seems, with Ireland at least, if not the EU27 as a whole, realising that they can't simply ignore the damage done to themselves if there's no deal. But I fear it's getting very late indeed; it would have been better for everyone if the EU had opened substantive talks on the future relationship with the UK immediately after the referendum result, instead of not even starting now, nearly 18 months later.

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Could be achieved through an FTA, surely?

LOL

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was saying on here yesterday that UK movement on citizens' rights and payments might be accompanied by movement on the Irish border from the EU. But the bottom line is that a policed border is unavoidable and always was once the UK decided to leave the Customs Union.

Some sort of border formalities for commercial freight are unavoidable, but the extent of them could be anything from checking each cargo, and collecting tariffs, to an electronic self-certify scheme where trade is hardly disrupted at all. It depends entirely on the on-going trade relationship.

LOL,LOL,LOL

Scott_P said:

It's shite being Scottish

Only for unionists Scott.

Mr. P, lovely mountains and whisky, though.

@DavidHerdson: #Scotland haven't qualified for a football finals tournament since Holyrood was created. Played in both Euros and 6/7 World Cups before.

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was saying on here yesterday that UK movement on citizens' rights and payments might be accompanied by movement on the Irish border from the EU. But the bottom line is that a policed border is unavoidable and always was once the UK decided to leave the Customs Union.

Some sort of border formalities for commercial freight are unavoidable, but the extent of them could be anything from checking each cargo, and collecting tariffs, to an electronic self-certify scheme where trade is hardly disrupted at all. It depends entirely on the on-going trade relationship.

My guess is that citizens rights and payments are the key issue at this stage. The major border problem currently is that the British government has yet to identify what it wants a future trade relationship with the EU to look like, only what it doesn't want. It's not up to the EU to make an offer, the UK has to set out its ambitions.

SouthamObserver said:

My guess is that citizens rights and payments are the key issue at this stage. The major border problem currently is that the British government has yet to identify what it wants a future trade relationship with the EU to look like, only what it doesn't want. It's not up to the EU to make an offer, the UK has to set out its ambitions.

The UK has set out its ambitions. But the EU27 refuses to discuss the most important aspect of the whole shebang, on which literally everything else, except perhaps citizens' rights, depends. Frankly, their position is as barmy as that of the most head-banging type of Brexiteer.

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Ireland are stuffed then, aren't they? As things stand, on March 29th 2019 the borders will, under EU law, have to go up. They've made no plans to set up the infrastructure, and, even if they had, as the article makes clear their economy will be decimated. And yet the EU27 still refuse to talk about the ongoing relationship.

The fact that it will also be a disaster for Northern Ireland is hardly going to be much consolation for them, but, if they won't discuss customs and tariff arrangements, then what on earth can the UK do?

No, the UK government is stuffed, because they will not be able to carry out the referendum result.

rcs1000 said:

JWisemann said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

Thats a borderline psychotically panglossian reading of events to be honest, and a great illustration of the point of view satirised in this cartoon : https://thenib.com/radical-centrism-101

Almost beyond parody.

Ummm. Is it?

I think the point Richard is making is that people don't feel there is much downside in demanding new arrangements.

Now, the question is whether they feel that way because they are struggling with no healthcare, no food, and no hope. Or whether it's because they feel secure that the the top part of Maslow's hierarchy of needs will continue to be met irrespective of who the government it.

Let's not forget: people in "the West" live longer, are healthier, better educated and have more material needs met than at any time in human history. What they struggle with is that the traditional measure of worth in the eyes of others is their social status - usually determined by them being in a secure and specialised job.

Perhaps people feel they can trade off a bit of income against other things they desire.

If, say, Brexit or a region becoming an independent country, means that GDP per head will be $45,000 rather than $48,000 in ten year's time, many people would conclude that it was worth it.

Sean_F said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.

It is an extraordinary contrast. North of Rome, you could be in Bavaria or Switzerland. South of Rome, you could be in North Africa, despite which, Naples is my favourite Italian city.

Mine too. But, there again, I grew up there.

Not sure if already posted, but David Goodhart seems bang on the money here, to me:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/britons-need-to-rediscover-the-ties-that-bind-brexit

Last three paragraphs seemed particularly pertinent.

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

JWisemann said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

Thats a borderline psychotically panglossian reading of events to be honest, and a great illustration of the point of view satirised in this cartoon : https://thenib.com/radical-centrism-101

Almost beyond parody.

Ummm. Is it?

I think the point Richard is making is that people don't feel there is much downside in demanding new arrangements.

Now, the question is whether they feel that way because they are struggling with no healthcare, no food, and no hope. Or whether it's because they feel secure that the the top part of Maslow's hierarchy of needs will continue to be met irrespective of who the government it.

Let's not forget: people in "the West" live longer, are healthier, better educated and have more material needs met than at any time in human history. What they struggle with is that the traditional measure of worth in the eyes of others is their social status - usually determined by them being in a secure and specialised job.

Perhaps people feel they can trade off a bit of income against other things they desire.

If, say, Brexit or a region becoming an independent country, means that GDP per head will be $45,000 rather than $48,000 in ten year's time, many people would conclude that it was worth it.

The utility you derive from your millionth dollar of income is less than the one you derive from your hundredth.

Which is what makes billionaires so interesting. They passed the point at which the marginal dollar made any difference whatsoever.

But your fundamental point is accurate.

Maybe the future is in more, smaller, looser states.
Maybe the rise of non-governmental currencies will further reduce the ties that hold large groups together.
Maybe the EU is a monolith in a world of fragmentation. Or maybe it holds the model for co-operation between independent statelets.

Who the hell knows.

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

Your first paragraph describes Catalan separatists' views of Spain perfectly. They want independence because they do not wish to subsidise what they see as feckless, ignorant Spanish peasants and because they see themselves as culturally superior. They don't like it when you point out Catalan wealth derives from it being a part of Spain. It's puzzling so many on the left back them. Less surprising that Farage, Putin et al do.

Over the last week I have had a number of strongly pro-Spanish associates tell me that the Catalan independence movement is simply an attempt by the Communists to take over the region. I am in absolutely no position to judge whether this is right but given their very strong support for the police crackdown I am inclined to take their views with a large pinch of salt. It does seem to be a popular theory though in Spain.

The leader of the separatist coalition is a member of a staunchly centre-right, pro-business party. It's in alliance with a socialist party and another much further to the left of that. The Catalan independence movement is rooted in the countryside and in the small business community, as well as some elements of the left. I'd say your friends are very wrong. It's much more about perceived cultural differences and a resentment if paying too much to Madrid while getting little back.

For those arguing as a solution to the NI/Ireland problem for a customs border on the Irish sea:

While cross-border traffic is significant, the greater trade for both Northern Ireland and Ireland is conducted across the Irish Sea.

CarlottaVance said:

For those arguing as a solution to the NI/Ireland problem for a customs border on the Irish sea:

While cross-border traffic is significant, the greater trade for both Northern Ireland and Ireland is conducted across the Irish Sea.

It's not a 'solution' and isn't meant to be - it's simply a constraint. Political realities mean that Northern Ireland cannot leave the customs union. It may well be the case that the rest of the UK can't either. Tant pis.

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

For those arguing as a solution to the NI/Ireland problem for a customs border on the Irish sea:

While cross-border traffic is significant, the greater trade for both Northern Ireland and Ireland is conducted across the Irish Sea.

It's not a 'solution' and isn't meant to be - it's simply a constraint. Political realities mean that Northern Ireland cannot leave the customs union. It may well be the case that the rest of the UK can't either. Tant pis.

Straw clutching, much?

So having dismissed the 'solution' of a customs border in the Irish sea, what's your solution?

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

For those arguing as a solution to the NI/Ireland problem for a customs border on the Irish sea:

While cross-border traffic is significant, the greater trade for both Northern Ireland and Ireland is conducted across the Irish Sea.

It's not a 'solution' and isn't meant to be - it's simply a constraint. Political realities mean that Northern Ireland cannot leave the customs union. It may well be the case that the rest of the UK can't either. Tant pis.

Straw clutching, much?

So having dismissed the 'solution' of a customs border in the Irish sea, what's your solution?

The EU should give us evereything we want and an apopolgy

calum said:

https://twitter.com/sweirz/status/917103086472134656

Strachan says it's shite being Scottish...

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

Aren't the first three examples of entities that were forcibly split up in the first place?

Moldova was part of Romania too, until 1940.

And 1941-44.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia

A pity that most of its territory is now in Poland, Lithuania and Russia.

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

For those arguing as a solution to the NI/Ireland problem for a customs border on the Irish sea:

While cross-border traffic is significant, the greater trade for both Northern Ireland and Ireland is conducted across the Irish Sea.

It's not a 'solution' and isn't meant to be - it's simply a constraint. Political realities mean that Northern Ireland cannot leave the customs union. It may well be the case that the rest of the UK can't either. Tant pis.

Straw clutching, much?

So having dismissed the 'solution' of a customs border in the Irish sea, what's your solution?

A customs border in the Irish sea isn't a 'solution'.

On a completely different topic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7t4IR-3mSo

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Ireland are stuffed then, aren't they? As things stand, on March 29th 2019 the borders will, under EU law, have to go up. They've made no plans to set up the infrastructure, and, even if they had, as the article makes clear their economy will be decimated. And yet the EU27 still refuse to talk about the ongoing relationship.

The fact that it will also be a disaster for Northern Ireland is hardly going to be much consolation for them, but, if they won't discuss customs and tariff arrangements, then what on earth can the UK do?

EIRE is what will force the EU to compromise, eventually. They'd be hit much harder than the UK by no deal, and are sitting right inside all the EU institutions, right now, making that point.

In practice no deal means no Brexit. The UK doesn't have the [insert suitable descriptor] to do it and would destroy itself if it tried.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Ireland are stuffed then, aren't they? As things stand, on March 29th 2019 the borders will, under EU law, have to go up. They've made no plans to set up the infrastructure, and, even if they had, as the article makes clear their economy will be decimated. And yet the EU27 still refuse to talk about the ongoing relationship.

The fact that it will also be a disaster for Northern Ireland is hardly going to be much consolation for them, but, if they won't discuss customs and tariff arrangements, then what on earth can the UK do?

EIRE is what will force the EU to compromise, eventually. They'd be hit much harder than the UK by no deal, and are sitting right inside all the EU institutions, right now, making that point.

In practice no deal means no Brexit. The UK doesn't have the [insert suitable descriptor] to do it and would destroy itself if it tried.

William, according to you, any path chosen >insert chosen path here< by the UK results in national immolation except integrating itself into a federal Europe, so I take what you say with more salt than the Dead Sea.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

JWisemann said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

Thats a borderline psychotically panglossian reading of events to be honest, and a great illustration of the point of view satirised in this cartoon : https://thenib.com/radical-centrism-101

Almost beyond parody.

Ummm. Is it?

I think the point Richard is making is that people don't feel there is much downside in demanding new arrangements.

Now, the question is whether they feel that way because they are struggling with no healthcare, no food, and no hope. Or whether it's because they feel secure that the the top part of Maslow's hierarchy of needs will continue to be met irrespective of who the government it.

Let's not forget: people in "the West" live longer, are healthier, better educated and have more material needs met than at any time in human history. What they struggle with is that the traditional measure of worth in the eyes of others is their social status - usually determined by them being in a secure and specialised job.

Perhaps people feel they can trade off a bit of income against other things they desire.

If, say, Brexit or a region becoming an independent country, means that GDP per head will be $45,000 rather than $48,000 in ten year's time, many people would conclude that it was worth it.

The utility you derive from your millionth dollar of income is less than the one you derive from your hundredth.

Which is what makes billionaires so interesting. They passed the point at which the marginal dollar made any difference whatsoever.

But your fundamental point is accurate.

Maybe the future is in more, smaller, looser states.
Maybe the rise of non-governmental currencies will further reduce the ties that hold large groups together.
Maybe the EU is a monolith in a world of fragmentation. Or maybe it holds the model for co-operation between independent statelets.

Who the hell knows.

I think that all you can say is that there is no real inevitability to history. The world's geopolitics are organic and have (and have always had) periods of stability, ascendancy and decline. Change is more common that not; some nations, structures and institutions being more stable than others.

We may be entering a period of significant change right now. But, we might also just muddle through.

This is such a disingenuous way of reporting a companies finances,

Airbnb, the accommodation website, paid less than £200,000 in UK corporation tax last year despite collecting £657m of rental payments for property owners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41543449

It is like saying a bank handled 100 trillion dollars of transactions last year but only paid £x million in tax.

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is such a disingenuous way of reporting a companies finances,

Airbnb, the accommodation website, paid less than £200,000 in UK corporation tax last year despite collecting £657m of rental payments for property owners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41543449

It is like saying a bank handled 100 trillion dollars of transactions last year but only paid £x million in tax.

It's effectively that Fake News we keep being warned about.

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is such a disingenuous way of reporting a companies finances,

Airbnb, the accommodation website, paid less than £200,000 in UK corporation tax last year despite collecting £657m of rental payments for property owners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41543449

It is like saying a bank handled 100 trillion dollars of transactions last year but only paid £x million in tax.

Their 3% commision on that turnover is about £20 million in income, so 1% paid in tax. It seems a case to answer.

foxinsoxuk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is such a disingenuous way of reporting a companies finances,

Airbnb, the accommodation website, paid less than £200,000 in UK corporation tax last year despite collecting £657m of rental payments for property owners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41543449

It is like saying a bank handled 100 trillion dollars of transactions last year but only paid £x million in tax.

Their 3% commision on that turnover is about £20 million in income, so 1% paid in tax. It seems a case to answer.

Erhh...only if you think company income = profit....

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Ireland are stuffed then, aren't they? As things stand, on March 29th 2019 the borders will, under EU law, have to go up. They've made no plans to set up the infrastructure, and, even if they had, as the article makes clear their economy will be decimated. And yet the EU27 still refuse to talk about the ongoing relationship.

The fact that it will also be a disaster for Northern Ireland is hardly going to be much consolation for them, but, if they won't discuss customs and tariff arrangements, then what on earth can the UK do?

EIRE is what will force the EU to compromise, eventually. They'd be hit much harder than the UK by no deal, and are sitting right inside all the EU institutions, right now, making that point.

In practice no deal means no Brexit. The UK doesn't have the [insert suitable descriptor] to do it and would destroy itself if it tried.

William, according to you, any path chosen >insert chosen path here< by the UK results in national immolation except integrating itself into a federal Europe, so I take what you say with more salt than the Dead Sea.

A dismembered United Kingdom, with reunited Ireland, independent Scotland will crawl back into the EU on its belly welcoming the Euro and Schengen....in Mr Glenn world....

As George Smiley says; "because he is a fanatic, and the interesting thing about a fanatic is that they always harbour a secret doubt."

I think William's biggest fear is he might be proven to Ben wrong, hence his ever increasing desperate pronouncements on here of inevitable catastrophe if we don't reverse course(and then some) now.

Casino_Royale said:

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This looks an important article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/08/post-brexit-invisible-border-is-impossible-says-irish-report

“It is probably somewhat naive to believe that a new and entirely unique arrangement can be negotiated and applied to the EU/UK land frontier.”

The report suggests local frontier points will have to be agreed with the UK, and says it is “not inconceivable” there will be eight crossing points, including a permanent customs post on the M1 between Dublin and Belfast.

The report will make sober reading for Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who came to office this summer warning that Ireland would not design a border for the Brexiteers.

It makes plain that customs checks on the south side of the border will be unavoidable under EU law.

The leak, which comes as the fifth round of Brexit talks start in Brussels, could change the balance in negotiations and put pressure on EU leaders to help Ireland find a solution.

Up to now the EU’s efforts have been focused on putting pressure on the UK to come up with a means of achieving the “seamless and frictionless border” that Theresa May and Varadkar’s predecessor Enda Kenny had promised after the Brexit vote.

A bit of reality leaking in, it seems, with Ireland at least, if not the EU27 as a whole, realising that they can't simply ignore the damage done to themselves if there's no deal. But I fear it's getting very late indeed; it would have been better for everyone if the EU had opened substantive talks on the future relationship with the UK immediately after the referendum result, instead of not even starting now, nearly 18 months later.

There is a simple solution and agreeable to all sides. Northern Ireland becomes part of the customs union. Ironically, exactly what Scotland proposed for themselves. It is legal and it will not affect Brexit.

After all, both NI and Scotland did vote to Remain. So this would be soft-Remain. I would like London to also be part of the EU customs union.

The rest of Britain can do whatever it likes.

Trade can only be a UK wide policy if the UK is to remain a single market.

The UK couldn't have a foreign organisation effectively responsible for its trade policy in large parts of its territory that might diverge from Westminster.

Even those territories in which it has "no selfish strategic or economic interest"?

Ishmael_Z said:

geoffw said:

Alanbrooke said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

For those arguing as a solution to the NI/Ireland problem for a customs border on the Irish sea:

While cross-border traffic is significant, the greater trade for both Northern Ireland and Ireland is conducted across the Irish Sea.

It's not a 'solution' and isn't meant to be - it's simply a constraint. Political realities mean that Northern Ireland cannot leave the customs union. It may well be the case that the rest of the UK can't either. Tant pis.

Straw clutching, much?

So having dismissed the 'solution' of a customs border in the Irish sea, what's your solution?

The EU should give us evereything we want and an apopolgy

I'd be happy with an apopolgy too.

You are evereything, and evereything is you.

I am large, I contain multitudes.

FrancisUrquhart said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is such a disingenuous way of reporting a companies finances,

Airbnb, the accommodation website, paid less than £200,000 in UK corporation tax last year despite collecting £657m of rental payments for property owners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41543449

It is like saying a bank handled 100 trillion dollars of transactions last year but only paid £x million in tax.

Their 3% commision on that turnover is about £20 million in income, so 1% paid in tax. It seems a case to answer.

Erhh...only if you think company income = profit....

Tax coming in at 1% of billings is rather low. Overheads are pretty small in a company that is app based and with low staffing.

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

For those arguing as a solution to the NI/Ireland problem for a customs border on the Irish sea:

While cross-border traffic is significant, the greater trade for both Northern Ireland and Ireland is conducted across the Irish Sea.

It's not a 'solution' and isn't meant to be - it's simply a constraint. Political realities mean that Northern Ireland cannot leave the customs union. It may well be the case that the rest of the UK can't either. Tant pis.

Northern Ireland can easily leave the Customs Union, as can the UK.

FrancisUrquhart said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is such a disingenuous way of reporting a companies finances,

Airbnb, the accommodation website, paid less than £200,000 in UK corporation tax last year despite collecting £657m of rental payments for property owners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41543449

It is like saying a bank handled 100 trillion dollars of transactions last year but only paid £x million in tax.

Their 3% commision on that turnover is about £20 million in income, so 1% paid in tax. It seems a case to answer.

Erhh...only if you think company income = profit....

I think that does show the lack of knowledge of business throughout the public sector, but never mind that is the Corbyn way

foxinsoxuk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is such a disingenuous way of reporting a companies finances,

Airbnb, the accommodation website, paid less than £200,000 in UK corporation tax last year despite collecting £657m of rental payments for property owners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41543449

It is like saying a bank handled 100 trillion dollars of transactions last year but only paid £x million in tax.

Their 3% commision on that turnover is about £20 million in income, so 1% paid in tax. It seems a case to answer.

Erhh...only if you think company income = profit....

Tax coming in at 1% of billings is rather low. Overheads are pretty small in a company that is app based and with low staffing.

The point was the headline is totally disingenuous.

When you read past the fake news headline, the truth is a profit of £1.5 million profit on £20 million income, but due to deductions of share payouts to staff they were only liable for it on a £1 million of profits.

You might think that is low, and questionable, that is fair enough, but the first paragraph is just all out spin. just like the way they report Amazon in terms of sales vs tax.

As for low staffing, a quick google suggests that isn't the case anymore. Yes they used to run with only a few hundred people worldwide, but they have been hiring rapidly over the past 2 years and have 1000s now working for them.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This looks an important article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/08/post-brexit-invisible-border-is-impossible-says-irish-report

“It is probably somewhat naive to believe that a new and entirely unique arrangement can be negotiated and applied to the EU/UK land frontier.”

The report suggests local frontier points will have to be agreed with the UK, and says it is “not inconceivable” there will be eight crossing points, including a permanent customs post on the M1 between Dublin and Belfast.

The report will make sober reading for Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who came to office this summer warning that Ireland would not design a border for the Brexiteers.

It makes plain that customs checks on the south side of the border will be unavoidable under EU law.

The leak, which comes as the fifth round of Brexit talks start in Brussels, could change the balance in negotiations and put pressure on EU leaders to help Ireland find a solution.

Up to now the EU’s efforts have been focused on putting pressure on the UK to come up with a means of achieving the “seamless and frictionless border” that Theresa May and Varadkar’s predecessor Enda Kenny had promised after the Brexit vote.

A bit of reality leaking in, it seems, with Ireland at least, if not the EU27 as a whole, realising that they can't simply ignore the damage done to themselves if there's no deal. But I fear it's getting very late indeed; it would have been better for everyone if the EU had opened substantive talks on the future relationship with the UK immediately after the referendum result, instead of not even starting now, nearly 18 months later.

There is a simple solution and agreeable to all sides. Northern Ireland becomes part of the customs union. Ironically, exactly what Scotland proposed for themselves. It is legal and it will not affect Brexit.

After all, both NI and Scotland did vote to Remain. So this would be soft-Remain. I would like London to also be part of the EU customs union.

The rest of Britain can do whatever it likes.

Trade can only be a UK wide policy if the UK is to remain a single market.

The UK couldn't have a foreign organisation effectively responsible for its trade policy in large parts of its territory that might diverge from Westminster.

Even those territories in which it has "no selfish strategic or economic interest"?

The British government would never have poured troops and money into Northern Ireland if it had no such interest.

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/sweirz/status/917103086472134656

Strachan says it's shite being Scottish...

it could be worse you might be TCO

Nothing can be that bad surely.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Ireland are stuffed then, aren't they? As things stand, on March 29th 2019 the borders will, under EU law, have to go up. They've made no plans to set up the infrastructure, and, even if they had, as the article makes clear their economy will be decimated. And yet the EU27 still refuse to talk about the ongoing relationship.

The fact that it will also be a disaster for Northern Ireland is hardly going to be much consolation for them, but, if they won't discuss customs and tariff arrangements, then what on earth can the UK do?

EIRE is what will force the EU to compromise, eventually. They'd be hit much harder than the UK by no deal, and are sitting right inside all the EU institutions, right now, making that point.

In practice no deal means no Brexit. The UK doesn't have the [insert suitable descriptor] to do it and would destroy itself if it tried.

That is real desperation from you. If there is no deal in March 219 then we leave without a deal. That is the reality.

foxinsoxuk said:

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This looks an important article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/08/post-brexit-invisible-border-is-impossible-says-irish-report

“It is probably somewhat naive to believe that a new and entirely unique arrangement can be negotiated and applied to the EU/UK land frontier.”

The report suggests local frontier points will have to be agreed with the UK, and says it is “not inconceivable” there will be eight crossing points, including a permanent customs post on the M1 between Dublin and Belfast.

The report will make sober reading for Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who came to office this summer warning that Ireland would not design a border for the Brexiteers.

It makes plain that customs checks on the south side of the border will be unavoidable under EU law.

The leak, which comes as the fifth round of Brexit talks start in Brussels, could change the balance in negotiations and put pressure on EU leaders to help Ireland find a solution.

Up to now the EU’s efforts have been focused on putting pressure on the UK to come up with a means of achieving the “seamless and frictionless border” that Theresa May and Varadkar’s predecessor Enda Kenny had promised after the Brexit vote.

A bit of reality leaking in, it seems, with Ireland at least, if not the EU27 as a whole, realising that they can't simply ignore the damage done to themselves if there's no deal. But I fear it's getting very late indeed; it would have been better for everyone if the EU had opened substantive talks on the future relationship with the UK immediately after the referendum result, instead of not even starting now, nearly 18 months later.

There is a simple solution and agreeable to all sides. Northern Ireland becomes part of the customs union. Ironically, exactly what Scotland proposed for themselves. It is legal and it will not affect Brexit.

After all, both NI and Scotland did vote to Remain. So this would be soft-Remain. I would like London to also be part of the EU customs union.

The rest of Britain can do whatever it likes.

Leicester voted Remain too!

Complete Balkanisation. Customs posts everywhere!!

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

You're drawing diametrically the wrong conclusion. The Irish position is that if the UK (or NI at least) leaves the customs union then a border is inevitable. That means that trade talks are irrelevant to the political dimension. It's the UK trying to pretend that leaving the customs union can somehow be achieved while maintaining no border. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the UK government until they accept reality.

Ireland are stuffed then, aren't they? As things stand, on March 29th 2019 the borders will, under EU law, have to go up. They've made no plans to set up the infrastructure, and, even if they had, as the article makes clear their economy will be decimated. And yet the EU27 still refuse to talk about the ongoing relationship.

The fact that it will also be a disaster for Northern Ireland is hardly going to be much consolation for them, but, if they won't discuss customs and tariff arrangements, then what on earth can the UK do?

EIRE is what will force the EU to compromise, eventually. They'd be hit much harder than the UK by no deal, and are sitting right inside all the EU institutions, right now, making that point.

In practice no deal means no Brexit. The UK doesn't have the [insert suitable descriptor] to do it and would destroy itself if it tried.

That is real desperation from you. If there is no deal in March 219 then we leave without a deal. That is the reality.

Thankfully the government are now openly talking about preparing for that increasingly likely outcome.

Seems like the hypothesis of the Vegas shooter perhaps being in a massive hole financially to the casinos can be scrubbed.

Steve Wynn on Paddock,

He's been staying in Las Vegas since ‘06. So you know, we're talking about 11 years with his girlfriend or at least in recent years, frequent visitor, once or twice a month, to this hotel and others. The most vanilla profile one could possibly imagine. A modest gambler at least by our standards, you know, nothing serious, paid promptly, never owed any money anywhere in Las Vegas.

You could say of course the casino bosses would play down problem gambler angle, but they can't get away lying when it comes to the gambling commission about for instance if a customer hadn't paid etc.

PeterC said:

foxinsoxuk said:

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This looks an important article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/08/post-brexit-invisible-border-is-impossible-says-irish-report

“It is probably somewhat naive to believe that a new and entirely unique arrangement can be negotiated and applied to the EU/UK land frontier.”

The report suggests local frontier points will have to be agreed with the UK, and says it is “not inconceivable” there will be eight crossing points, including a permanent customs post on the M1 between Dublin and Belfast.

The report will make sober reading for Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who came to office this summer warning that Ireland would not design a border for the Brexiteers.

It makes plain that customs checks on the south side of the border will be unavoidable under EU law.

The leak, which comes as the fifth round of Brexit talks start in Brussels, could change the balance in negotiations and put pressure on EU leaders to help Ireland find a solution.

Up to now the EU’s efforts have been focused on putting pressure on the UK to come up with a means of achieving the “seamless and frictionless border” that Theresa May and Varadkar’s predecessor Enda Kenny had promised after the Brexit vote.

A bit of reality leaking in, it seems, with Ireland at least, if not the EU27 as a whole, realising that they can't simply ignore the damage done to themselves if there's no deal. But I fear it's getting very late indeed; it would have been better for everyone if the EU had opened substantive talks on the future relationship with the UK immediately after the referendum result, instead of not even starting now, nearly 18 months later.

There is a simple solution and agreeable to all sides. Northern Ireland becomes part of the customs union. Ironically, exactly what Scotland proposed for themselves. It is legal and it will not affect Brexit.

After all, both NI and Scotland did vote to Remain. So this would be soft-Remain. I would like London to also be part of the EU customs union.

The rest of Britain can do whatever it likes.

Leicester voted Remain too!

Complete Balkanisation. Customs posts everywhere!!

Border control at Junction 21 of the M1? about time!