politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking up the pieces. Disintegrating Europe

Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

56% in Venice (and environs), really? I knew there was some sentiment, but that is high, even recognising the relatively recent formation of the modern Italian state and historical Venetian sovereignty.

I note that in every case where separatist sentiment is surging (bar Sardinia), the secessionist part is at least as rich as its host

Interesting indeed. Someone yesterday was suggesting an impact of increased globilization wherein we still care, in identity terms, with our very immediate neighbours, but harder to identify with the larger national boundaries. If regions are wealthier and feel a lack of connection to the larger state like that, it would explain why they are more keen to break away.

But doesn't that line above contradict the bit immediately below, placing support for Venetian independence as part of the trend of 'strident nativism' of the poor and ill-educated? Do the poor and ill-educated make up the majority in a wealthy/average region? I guess with so many different areas no trend will be perfect in any case, too many local factors.

Some tough issues for the EU to grapple with in particular.

I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

Sean_F said:

I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia

At the time of Pangaea Scotland was nowhere near England but on the equator. It was only when the Laurentian continent collided with Avalonia that the two became joined.

The existence of so many very low populated countries probably makes it easier to sell the idea of separation, particularly in Europe where, as pointed out, some things are hardly likely to change, like currency, or at least that would be the idea.

Sean_F said:

I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

Immediately after WW2 there was a surge in secessionism in NW Germany among people who wanted to re-establish Hanover as a state. As Lower Saxony is effectively Hanover plus Oldenburg, Brunswick and a few other bits I suppose they got their way.

FPT - Some of my pleasantest chill-holidays have been down in Devon like Marquee Mark and others on the last thread - it seems to manage rural peace and views without too much tourist-trappery, which can be a hazard in Cornwall. I usually stay at my cousin's windmill, which she rents out as a variety holiday cottage (not intended as an advert, just an illustration of the pleasures available):

http://devonwindmills.co.uk/

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia

me too

OldKingCole said:

Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

It's Czechia now.

Essexit said:

OldKingCole said:

Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

It's Czechia now.

Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html

RobD said:

Nonregla said:

Essexit said:

OldKingCole said:

Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

It's Czechia now.

"Czechia" has always been the sensible name to use, for those who wish to distinguish between the country and its current politial regime.

Similar to France and The French Republic.

Not like France and Vichy France?

RobD said:

Essexit said:

OldKingCole said:

Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

It's Czechia now.

Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html

Interesting seeing as it was the Czech government that announced it wanted English-speakers to use “Czechia” henceforth a couple of years ago.

And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?

rpjs said:

RobD said:

Essexit said:

OldKingCole said:

Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

It's Czechia now.

Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html

Interesting seeing as it was the Czech government that announced it wanted English-speakers to use “Czechia” henceforth a couple of years ago.

And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?

Bohemia and Moravia would possibly do, at risk of further secession.

foxinsoxuk said:

rpjs said:

RobD said:

Essexit said:

OldKingCole said:

Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

It's Czechia now.

Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html

Interesting seeing as it was the Czech government that announced it wanted English-speakers to use “Czechia” henceforth a couple of years ago.

And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?

Bohemia and Moravia would possibly do, at risk of further secession.

Bohemoravia might work, although it would sound like an acid house party.

foxinsoxuk said:

I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

Aren't the first three examples of entities that were forcibly split up in the first place?

foxinsoxuk said:

I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

There are the Koreas,and China/Taiwan, notwithstanding obvious difficulties therein.

On separatism and recent rallies, it is handy how protestors think of the international audience, I presume, by including english language signs. Maybe I'm wrong, but I cannot think of another reason there would be signs saying 'We are Catalans; We are Spanish' in English during a unity rally.

dixiedean said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

There are the Koreas,and China/Taiwan, notwithstanding obvious difficulties therein.

China and Hong Kong and Macau.

Sikkim joined India in the Seventies too.

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia

The Allies deliberately sought to erase Prussian identity after WWII.

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

Aren't the first three examples of entities that were forcibly split up in the first place?

Not Yemen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Yemen for the full story

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia

The Allies deliberately sought to erase Prussian identity after WWII.

Were we still allies of the Soviets during that period?

NickPalmer said:

FPT - Some of my pleasantest chill-holidays have been down in Devon like Marquee Mark and others on the last thread - it seems to manage rural peace and views without too much tourist-trappery, which can be a hazard in Cornwall. I usually stay at my cousin's windmill, which she rents out as a variety holiday cottage (not intended as an advert, just an illustration of the pleasures available):

http://devonwindmills.co.uk/

That looks to have a rather splendid location, Nick!

YBarddCwsc said:

The main problem the EU will have if Catalonia becomes independent is that it will unravel the consensus in the East.

No wonder Victor Orban is keen to recognise Catalonia, for example. There are ample areas of Romania, Serbia or Slovakia where Hungarians are in a majority.

Historically, small border disputes in Eastern Europe have a habit of engulfing the entire continent in War.

The most ridiculous example of a territory that clearly does not belong to its present country is South Tyrol. An ancient entity, the Tyrol, was split, and the southern portion given to Italy as a war prize after WW1.

It is even today overwhelmingly German speaking. I would have thought if Catalonia does make it, South Tyrol will surely want to re-join the rest of the Tyrol in Austria

They do have a very high degree of autonomy though, and Schengen, the single-market / customs union and the Euro mean there’s little to practically divide them from their fellow Tyroleans any more. I’ve read that the similar impact on the everyday lives of Basques across the Franco-Spanish border is one of the reasons why Basque separatism has died down in recent years.

foxinsoxuk said:

dixiedean said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

There are the Koreas,and China/Taiwan, notwithstanding obvious difficulties therein.

China and Hong Kong and Macau.

Sikkim joined India in the Seventies too.

Southern British Cameroons joined formerly French Cameroon in the early 60s, although many Anglophones in Cameroon now regret that as the Francophones run the country today.

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

Aren't the first three examples of entities that were forcibly split up in the first place?

Moldova was part of Romania too, until 1940.

But only since 1918, and there were a lot of non-Romanians in it.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.

Your first paragraph describes Catalan separatists' views of Spain perfectly. They want independence because they do not wish to subsidise what they see as feckless, ignorant Spanish peasants and because they see themselves as culturally superior. They don't like it when you point out Catalan wealth derives from it being a part of Spain. It's puzzling so many on the left back them. Less surprising that Farage, Putin et al do.

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.

Way back in the 1960s we used to employ a few Italians. The love between those from the north and south was obvious, expressed in arguments, and on odd occasions with knives.

Had to manage who worked with who in those days.

Very big pro-unity march in Barcelona today. The silent majority is beginning to speak:
https://twitter.com/ariztegui/status/917028283555991552

Contingency plans in case the UK has to leave the EU with no deal in place are "well under way", a minister has said.
Dominic Raab said while the UK had to "strive for the very best outcome" from Brexit negotiations, it had to "prepare for all eventualities".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41544588

DavidL said:

Scotland haven't had 4 clean sheets in a row since 1997.

Nae problemo.

Will it be The Red Army v The Tartan Army next summer?

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.

It is an extraordinary contrast. North of Rome, you could be in Bavaria or Switzerland. South of Rome, you could be in North Africa, despite which, Naples is my favourite Italian city.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia

The Allies deliberately sought to erase Prussian identity after WWII.

Not least, much of historic Prussia is now in Poland and the Kalingrad Oblast of Russia, with an entirely different population!

DavidL said:

YESSSSSSS

Scotland score!!!!

We're on the march with Gordons Army..

We're going to the qualifiers ...............................

bigjohnowls said:

DavidL said:

YESSSSSSS

Scotland score!!!!

We're on the march with Gordons Army..

We're going to the qualifiers ...............................

King of the North, King of the North, Gordon Strachan King of the North.

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

DavidL said:

YESSSSSSS

Scotland score!!!!

We're on the march with Gordons Army..

We're going to the qualifiers ...............................

King of the North, King of the North, Gordon Strachan King of the North.

I really hope Scotland qualify.

The Tartan Army will be great for the tournament.

Would love to see Barry Bannan perform on the highest stage too.

F1: post-race analysis:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/japan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

bigjohnowls said:

DavidL said:

YESSSSSSS

Scotland score!!!!

We're on the march with Gordons Army..

We're going to the qualifiers ...............................

1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.

Yorkcity said:

bigjohnowls said:

DavidL said:

YESSSSSSS

Scotland score!!!!

We're on the march with Gordons Army..

We're going to the qualifiers ...............................

1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.

This is normal. Nothing is ever easy.

Ok. Officially worried now.

DavidL said:

Yorkcity said:

bigjohnowls said:

DavidL said:

YESSSSSSS

Scotland score!!!!

We're on the march with Gordons Army..

We're going to the qualifiers ...............................

1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.

This is normal. Nothing is ever easy.

They don't look as if they could score in a brothel with a ten pounds and a doctor's line

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Yorkcity said:

bigjohnowls said:

DavidL said:

YESSSSSSS

Scotland score!!!!

We're on the march with Gordons Army..

We're going to the qualifiers ...............................

1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.

This is normal. Nothing is ever easy.

They don't look as if they could score in a brothel with a ten pounds and a doctor's line

That's a generous comment about England.

The reason Brexit got 52% (and not 40%) is because a significant number of affluent middle class eurosceptics also voted for it for constitutional reasons. It had broad enough roots right across the political spectrum, from left to right, for it to carry the day.

That makes it different to all the other examples cited, including Trump, who not only scored a minority of the vote, but was nationally outpolled by Hillary.

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

What a goal!!!!

Usual from us, so near yet so far

Aye, the wee free mac na fees could get out of anywhere but a pub. Pratchett could have added qualifying groups.

The hope, it is always the hope.

https://twitter.com/CalumSteeleSPF/status/917085272831090694

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Feck.

You knew it would end this way David, it always does.

2-2 against Slovenia away from home is not a bad result. It is those first 4 games that killed us. TBH there is not one international class player in this team. Strachan has done remarkable things with a very ordinary squad. But I suspect that is it for him.