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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remembering Mark Senior – poster on PB 2004-2017

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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Yes, they're getting less coverage (or less high-profile coverage; what was once on BBC2 is now on BBC Parliament).

    The Lib Dems' coverage reduction was also compounded by their reduced status. Two elections at 7-8% and with no more than a dozen MPs means they're really not a major party these days.
    But I believe that the Liberal Assembly was broadcast - as were the Tory & Labour Conferences - pretty much in its entirety as far back as the Jo Grimond era in the early 1960s. The broadcasters have long cut back their coverage on debates and now tend to focus on little beyond the speeches of the party leaders.
  • Yes
    What's more, doing a reverse ferret on Brexit would leave Corbyn exposed with the youth vote. How would he position himself?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,615



    He would also have to oversee the biggest cuts in the NHS ever. Within six months, it would be the most reviled Govt. of all time.

    But maybe that is what we need to finally kill off the scourge of Socialism in this country.

    If your hope is that Corbyn/Labour are going to introduce massive cuts to the NHS - I'm pretty confident you are going to be utterly disappointed.

    I doubt Corbyn or any Labour leader for that matter could even get such a budget through parliament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    justin124 said:

    But I believe that the Liberal Assembly was broadcast - as were the Tory & Labour Conferences - pretty much in its entirety as far back as the Jo Grimond era in the early 1960s. The broadcasters have long cut back their coverage on debates and now tend to focus on little beyond the speeches of the party leaders.
    The parties themselves, through their leaders, seem to welcome the shift in focus . They want the message to be simple and personified by the leader, and the internal discussion and other events to only be known to the party faithful.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    edited September 2017
    Another optimistic view of the German election outcome - http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-09/wahl-bundestag-afd-opposition-jamaikakoalition-angela-merkel

    - A government with a refreshingly new programme
    - A reinvigorated centre-left opposition
    - An AfD exposed to real scrutiny
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    rkrkrk said:

    That makes sense to me.
    I think the proportion of left-wingers on this board who dislike Corbyn/won't vote for him is probably quite a bit higher than nationally.
    That is true but then of course Corbyn won 20% of 2015 UKIP voters last time too
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    The last leader to lose his first general election and become PM as Corbyn is trying to do was Heath in 1970 whose government lasted a single term
    A very rare event indeed. The only other example in the last 80 years was Winston Churchill, who lost his first two elections as leader.
  • What's more, doing a reverse ferret on Brexit would leave Corbyn exposed with the youth vote. How would he position himself?
    See my qualification
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595

    A very rare event indeed. The only other example in the last 80 years was Winston Churchill, who lost his first two elections as leader.
    Churchill had already been PM when he lost and would almost certainly have won a 1940 election
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    He would also have to oversee the biggest cuts in the NHS ever. Within six months, it would be the most reviled Govt. of all time.

    But maybe that is what we need to finally kill off the scourge of Socialism in this country.
    Considering that we are all suffering under the present total incompetence of the Conservative Party, can anyone be worse. Even Vince Cable would be better as PM than May. It is now more likely that it will be any party rather than the Tories for the next 20 years. Just imagine of the hoohaa if Moodies had dropped the the credit rating of the UK on a Labour party watch? Or the value of the currency falling against the Euro/Dollar, or having a disastrous referendum result, or an incompetent general electoral campaign when many on this site would have been questioning the legitimacy of the Labour Party in government and demanding a re-run to let those fine, public school and Oxbridge types to take on their natural mantle of quality leadership - not that I am being sarcastic or anything like that......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,960
    PClipp said:

    Yes indeed, a week ago. There was a record attendance, with 4000 members present.

    To a large extent, our foreign-owned media failed to notice.
    I did see something about Uncle Vince making a speech but that is honestly all I picked up from it. And the speech was in anticipation not after he made it.
  • A very rare event indeed. The only other example in the last 80 years was Winston Churchill, who lost his first two elections as leader.
    Also Attlee, who lost in 1935 before going on to win in 1945 (I know that 1935 is more than 80 years ago but 1945 isn't, so it depends on your definition).

    But then there aren't two many who lost a first election and then fought a second. Apart from Attlee, Churchill and Heath, only Kinnock lost one and carried on to fight a second (Gaitskell very probably would have done had he not died - difficult to say whether he would have won given how close the 1964 actually was).

    So arguably, the odds of winning at the second go are quite reasonable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    DavidL said:

    I did see something about Uncle Vince making a speech but that is honestly all I picked up from it. And the speech was in anticipation not after he made it.
    Which is another curse of modern politics. Let’s all discuss a keynote speech the morning after it was made, rather than the morning before.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    A very rare event indeed. The only other example in the last 80 years was Winston Churchill, who lost his first two elections as leader.
    And in terms of the popular vote Churchill lost all three elections he fought as leader! Moreover , had it not been for the Ulster Unionists then taking the Tory Whip the 1951 election would have produced a Hung Parliament.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,372
    OchEye said:

    Considering that we are all suffering under the present total incompetence of the Conservative Party, can anyone be worse. Even Vince Cable would be better as PM than May. It is now more likely that it will be any party rather than the Tories for the next 20 years. Just imagine of the hoohaa if Moodies had dropped the the credit rating of the UK on a Labour party watch? Or the value of the currency falling against the Euro/Dollar, or having a disastrous referendum result, or an incompetent general electoral campaign when many on this site would have been questioning the legitimacy of the Labour Party in government and demanding a re-run to let those fine, public school and Oxbridge types to take on their natural mantle of quality leadership - not that I am being sarcastic or anything like that......
    The government are not very good at politics, but I don't think many of use are suffering due to poor governance.

    So, yes, one could get a good deal worse.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,960

    Is there any chance this new found confidence will be Labour undoing by offering stuff that seems excessive and irresponsible- I fail to see how Labour would have the money to bring PFIs to an end or bring in house, whilst nationalising water, energy, the royal mail, rail etch with our current level of debt. And free tuition fees.
    Who on earth do you think is listening? Almost no one without a fixed voting position. And quite right too. The next election is years away.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,960
    Sandpit said:

    Which is another curse of modern politics. Let’s all discuss a keynote speech the morning after it was made, rather than the morning before.
    Completely agree but the polys are complicit. They give all the media a script before it is delivered so they have something to talk about.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    justin124 said:

    And in terms of the popular vote Churchill lost all three elections he fought as leader! Moreover , had it not been for the Ulster Unionists then taking the Tory Whip the 1951 election would have produced a Hung Parliament.
    Yes and as I said he would have won in 1940 by a landslide but WW2 postponed the general election. Wilson lost the popular vote in February 1974 too but won most seats
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    DavidL said:

    Completely agree but the polys are complicit. They give all the media a script before it is delivered so they have something to talk about.
    Yep it’s a stitch-up between the politicians and media, but I’d rather hear the speech as delivered than listen to a bunch of half-informed hacks discussing the key points hours earlier. But then again I’m an old fuddy duddy (39) who thinks that key speeches about government policy should be made in Parliament.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    I think the result of a 1940 election is pretty unknowable given the circumstances of the time and the fact of a Coalition Government having been formed - and Churchill only succeeded Chamberlain as Tory leader in the Autumn of that year. There is certainly some evidence from polling and the by election successes of Common Wealth and other candidates that an election held in 1942 or 1943 would have produced an even bigger Labour landslide than happened in 1945.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    There’s no anti-Semitism in Labour, they had an enquiry and everything.
    https://order-order.com/2017/09/25/labour-fringe-expel-jewish-activists-israel-like-nazis/
    A fringe event at Labour conference has heard calls to expel Jewish activists from the party, while a speaker compared Israel to Nazis and the audience was banned from tweeting in an attempt to silence “hostile” coverage.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    Seizing assets without even paying the market rate is a thin edge of the wedge.

    What next after utilities and water?

    Larger houses?
    There was room for more than 30 families in this house
  • Just seen the news. Rest in peace Mark. A thoughtful fellow who came across as a real gentleman. I'm sure he'll be missed by the many people who knew him in politics and beyond.
This discussion has been closed.