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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn keeps his shirt on in Poldark country

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2017
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Corbyn is another Attlee or Thatcher, more likely if he wins he will be another Heath and out after a term
    It is over 40 years since a party did not get a second term, and indeed Wilson did win two consecutive elections, albeit both in 74. US incumbent presidents for a similar period have won second terms too. I think that winning a second term is very possible for Labour, indeed quite possibly with an increased majority. It takes a while for the wheels to fall off, and apparatchiks like McDonnell are often very good administrators.

  • AllanAllan Posts: 262

    And your solution is to make it harder for him to export to Europe. I am sure that this makes sense in your head, but I have to say I'm struggling with it.
    He is failing to export significant amounts to Europe (EU27 being a part of that). He is worrying about a small part of his business and presenting his company as an exporting manufacturer. Maybe he needs to understand his business better?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    How long can the far Left sustain this suspension of disbelief? Are the public so gullible?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    It is over 40 years since a party did not get a second term, and indeed Wilson did win two consecutive elections, albeit both in 74. US incumbent presidents for a similar period have won second terms too. I think that winning a second term is very possible for Labour, indeed quite possibly with an increased majority. It takes a while for the wheels to fall off, and apparatchiks like McDonnell are often very good administrators.

    It is also almost 50 years since a party leader who lost his first general election won his second, that leader was Heath in 1970 and he was thrown out after a term.
  • Allan said:

    He is failing to export significant amounts to Europe (EU27 being a part of that). He is worrying about a small part of his business and presenting his company as an exporting manufacturer. Maybe he needs to understand his business better?

    My guess is that he understands it a whole lot better than you.

  • HYUFD said:

    The slim prospect of attracting centre left Remainers like you to vote Tory if the Tories back soft Brexit as you are not keen on Corbyn is not worth the large numbers of Tory Leave voters who would switch to UKIP if the Tories kept the UK in the single market and left free movement uncontrolled

    I'd never vote Tory. But I did not vote Labour in June.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    It is also almost 50 years since a party leader who lost his first general election won his second, that leader was Heath in 1970 and he was thrown out after a term.
    Losing leaders rarely get a second chance in modern times, and indeed the only one who did was Neil Kinnock, who gained seats at both of his elections. Your set consists of n = 1. Mine is a bigger data set.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Jason said:

    How long can the far Left sustain this suspension of disbelief? Are the public so gullible?

    Well the way they voted at the last election seems to be changing the mindset.A re think on public sector pay , student fees , deficit reduction pushed further down the road .Corby light agenda so maybe not so naive as you portray them.
  • Jason said:

    How long can the far Left sustain this suspension of disbelief? Are the public so gullible?

    Perhaps there has been one of Callaghan's famous sea changes?
  • Allan said:

    EU Tariffs = 33.5 per cent in dairy and 15 per cent on animal products. For individual products tariffs can be higher still. (Policy Exchange report 2017)
    Do you think these tariffs apply to all imports from outside the EU? They don't.
  • malcolmg said:
    Oh yes, just wait.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited September 2017
    https://twitter.com/EveningStandard?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    Chuckletastic.

    Corbyn billed to be on WATO shortly.

    Dunno why that isn't linking properly. Lame cartoon about 5 posts down.
  • My guess is that he understands it a whole lot better than you.

    Who would have time (as a business person) to make something up and send in a letter?
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Jason said:

    How long can the far Left sustain this suspension of disbelief? Are the public so gullible?

    Is this more underestimation of Corbyn?
  • Currently the EU view is to get us to pay the maximum imaginable whether it is legally justified or not because we have no choice but to agree to it in their eyes. Do you think we should go ahead with that or not?
    It's a reflection of the very weak negotiating position we are in, because thousands believed the lies of the Leave campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited September 2017

    I'd never vote Tory. But I did not vote Labour in June.

    So given about 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave there is not enough marketshare for them to gain soft Brexiteers and Remainers currently without losing far more anti single market and anti free movement Brexiteers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited September 2017

    Losing leaders rarely get a second chance in modern times, and indeed the only one who did was Neil Kinnock, who gained seats at both of his elections. Your set consists of n = 1. Mine is a bigger data set.
    Kinnock also lost twice and most of his gains in voteshare came from the SDP not the Tories

    Every PM since 1950 who was re elected won his first general election unlike Corbyn, even Attlee would probably have lost in 1940 his luck was the election being delayed until 1945
  • Jason said:

    How long can the far Left sustain this suspension of disbelief? Are the public so gullible?

    Either a day before or a day after the next election. Hopefully the former.
  • Currently the EU view is to get us to pay the maximum imaginable whether it is legally justified or not because we have no choice but to agree to it in their eyes. Do you think we should go ahead with that or not?
    The EU aren't thinking beyond making an example of the UK, pour encourages les autres.

    They either want us to fold and stay, accept a chained deal where our hands are tied forever more with no say, or just fuck off.

    The risk is that we decide to fuck off.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    edited September 2017

    Do you think these tariffs apply to all imports from outside the EU? They don't.
    You asked for examples of cheaper food once freed from EU tariffs. There is a big wide world out there if you are optimistic and look at life through a half full glass.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    This might have a significant impact on who gets to be the Democrat's nominee for president, perhaps making it harder for a relative unknown like Obama was to emerge:
    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/10/california-could-jolt-2020-presidential-elections-242530
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Kinnock also lost twice and most of his gains in voteshare came from the SDP not the Tories

    Every PM since 1950 who was re elected won his first general election unlike Corbyn, even Attlee would probably have lost in 1940 his luck was the election being delayed until 1945
    You appear rather fixated on the SDP - which was only half - and very much the weaker half - of the Liberal /SDP Alliance.
  • Seems Corbyn is just as muddled on the Single Market as anyone else is.

    Oh dear.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Jeremy Corbyn say whether UK remains in the single market after leaving EU "remains open for discussion" #wato

    @tobyhelm: Highly significant that Corbyn on WATO now saying Labour regards permanent membership of the single market as up for discussion.

    @steve_hawkes: BBC ask Jeremy Corbyn to repeat his answer "for the sake of clarity" - this happens a lot
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262

    My guess is that he understands it a whole lot better than you.

    Lacking a focus on the big issues and fretting over the minor is a sign of a bad business manager, but at 78 we should be generous and wish him a happy retirement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited September 2017
    justin124 said:

    You appear rather fixated on the SDP - which was only half - and very much the weaker half - of the Liberal /SDP Alliance.
    Nonetheless most of Kinnock's gains in 1987 and 1992 came from the Liberal/SDP Alliance

    In 1983 the Tories got 42% and the SDP/Alliance 25%, in 1992 the Tories got 41% and the LDs 17%
  • Corbyn's position on Brexit seems to be that he hopes the issue will go away.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262

    Corbyn's position on Brexit seems to be that he hopes the issue will go away.

    True. The question is when will his luck run out? 2018, 19, 20?
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    Corbyn's position on Brexit seems to be that he hopes the issue will go away.

    Most voters wants someone to just get a good deal and never talk of the whole mess ever again. And will blame whoever gets us a rubbish deal
  • Allan said:

    You asked for examples of cheaper food once freed from EU tariffs. There is a big wide world out there if you are optimistic and look at life through a half full glass.
    And you came back with a vague statement about tariffs instead of a concrete example of how leaving the EU will lower food prices.
  • Corbyn's position on Brexit seems to be that he hopes the issue will go away.

    ‪Corbyn sounds like a man still deciding whether to ditch his mistress before his wife finds outs. ‬

    Not that I have any experience of such a situation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    619 said:

    Most voters wants someone to just get a good deal and never talk of the whole mess ever again. And will blame whoever gets us a rubbish deal
    That depends on what they consider a rubbish deal, most Remainers would consider that leaving the single market and customs union without FTAs in place, most Leavers paying billions to the EU and leaving free movement uncontrolled
  • Corbyn's position on Brexit seems to be that he hopes the issue will go away.

    A bit like Trident. Starting to see a pattern of a man split between what he actually thinks and maintaining a vaneer of moderation.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705

    ‪Corbyn sounds like a man still deciding whether to ditch his mistress before his wife finds outs. ‬

    Not that I have any experience of such a situation.
    How about ditching the wife before the mistress finds out?
  • HYUFD said:

    That depends on what they consider a rubbish deal, most Remainers would consider that leaving the single market and customs union without FTAs in place, most Leavers paying billions to the EU and leaving free movement uncontrolled
    Staying in the single market but leaving the EU itself would actually be a the worst of all worlds.

    Id prefer to remain in the EU on those grounds, on the basis we can still go to the meetings and piss off the French.
  • philiph said:

    How about ditching the wife before the mistress finds out?
    Never marry your mistress. You're only creating a new vacancy.
  • Someone's stolen Morris Dancer's idea.

    https://twitter.com/thedailymash/status/907223496656334849
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    Staying in the single market but leaving the EU itself would actually be a the worst of all worlds.

    Id prefer to remain in the EU on those grounds, on the basis we can still go to the meetings and piss off the French.
    Many Leavers would, though I think we may eventually return to the EEA under a more moderate Labour PM than Corbyn would be and after a number of years of no free movement
  • And you came back with a vague statement about tariffs instead of a concrete example of how leaving the EU will lower food prices.
    Half the butter and over 60% of the cheese we consume is imported yet only 1% of those imports come from outside the EU. Why, when nations like New Zealand produce some of the worlds best and cheapest butter?

    Because the EU imposes tariffs of €1,896 per tonne of butter.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, shocking, simply shocking. You can't trust anyone these days.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KatySearle: Labour source says Jeremy Corbyn's position on single market hasn't changed. Formal relationship doesn't exist. Wants best poss relationship
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Someone's stolen Morris Dancer's idea.

    https://twitter.com/thedailymash/status/907223496656334849

    I was going to say, boringly, that it isn't that easy. You have to decelerate to get from here to there, and without friction decelerating costs as much as accelerating. However, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/05/31/nasa-announces-historic-mission-send-probe-touch-sun-live/
    Strap him to that and off we go.
  • Scott_P said:

    @KatySearle: Labour source says Jeremy Corbyn's position on single market hasn't changed. Formal relationship doesn't exist. Wants best poss relationship

    So in other worlds, 'we ain't got the foggiest either'.

    Or the mythical 'have your cake and eat it' option.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Don, Corbyn's charisma and reach certainly helped. But we should not overlook Ed Miliband's appointment of an agent for the South West specifically for this purpose. Thousands of party supporters were identified and in course of time it will help.

    Labour has had help from Cameron / Crosby. By breaking the Liberal default vote, Labour's chances have improved.

    It is now up to Labour to spread the message.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: In same interview, Corbyn says UK could stay in the single market after Brexit AND that being in the single market depends on being in EU.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Half the butter and over 60% of the cheese we consume is imported yet only 1% of those imports come from outside the EU. Why, when nations like New Zealand produce some of the worlds best and cheapest butter?

    Because the EU imposes tariffs of €1,896 per tonne of butter.
    We knew that when we joined the EU. It was a big topical point at the time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    I'd never vote Tory. But I did not vote Labour in June.

    Fortunately more people in Leamington did than voted Tory. Corbyn Gain
  • Allan said:

    Lacking a focus on the big issues and fretting over the minor is a sign of a bad business manager, but at 78 we should be generous and wish him a happy retirement.

    Classic shoot the messenger, because you can't handle the message.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    edited September 2017
    OFCOM have ruled on Channel 4 wrongly identifying the Westminster Bridge attacker:

    https://tinyurl.com/yb74dct3

    I only skimmed it but this stood out:

    Ofcom acknowledged the public interest in establishing the facts around this incident and, in particular, the identity of the suspected attacker, as quickly as possible. In this context, we considered there was a clear editorial justification for this programme to include as much information about this attack in the broadcast as rapidly as possible.
  • Allan said:

    You asked for examples of cheaper food once freed from EU tariffs. There is a big wide world out there if you are optimistic and look at life through a half full glass.

    So, if we hope hard enough everything will be alright!

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Seems Corbyn is just as muddled on the Single Market as anyone else is.

    Oh dear.

    I thought he was absolutely clear. He wants the UK to remain in the single market even after leaving the EU. In that case, the UK will not be the only country in that position.
  • The Trotskyist takeover is proceeding according to plan.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Fortunately more people in Leamington did than voted Tory. Corbyn Gain
    Which included Southam's three children, we were told. Good for them!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    malcolmg said:
    Remind everyone of our Imperial and Colonial past. Well done, idiots!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2017
    surbiton said:

    I thought he was absolutely clear. He wants the UK to remain in the single market even after leaving the EU. In that case, the UK will not be the only country in that position.
    There is no option of the UK unilaterally 'remaining' in the Single Market. There could be a potential option, in principle at least, of applying to join EFTA and amending the EEA treaties so that we become non-EU members of the EEA. That would of course mean formal treaty change, requiring the unanimous consent of the 27 EU countries plus the four EFTA countries. Quite how Corbyn thinks that might be achievable in the very limited time available is anyone's guess, but my guess would be that he hasn't got a clue.

    The only other way of remaining in the Single Market would be to cancel Brexit, again involving the unanimous consent of the 27 EU countries. Good luck with that one.
  • Scott_P said:
    To me that reads as Corbyn edging towards an exit from Brexit.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Half the butter and over 60% of the cheese we consume is imported yet only 1% of those imports come from outside the EU. Why, when nations like New Zealand produce some of the worlds best and cheapest butter?

    Because the EU imposes tariffs of €1,896 per tonne of butter.
    But you have not proven that after Brexit butter will be cheaper to import from New Zealand. Unless Britain has a trade agreement with NZ, it cannot offer better terms to one country compared to WTO.

    Have you checked NZ butter prices compared to Ireland, for example. Please take transit costs into account as well.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    To me that reads as Corbyn edging towards an exit from Brexit.
    Yup.
  • Half the butter and over 60% of the cheese we consume is imported yet only 1% of those imports come from outside the EU. Why, when nations like New Zealand produce some of the worlds best and cheapest butter?

    Because the EU imposes tariffs of €1,896 per tonne of butter.
    There are many many countries with tariff and quota free access to the EU. If cheese imports are only 1% of the total, the reason must be something else.

    EU tariffs on New Zealand butter are actually €700 per tonne, not the MFN tariff, and New Zealand is the top butter exporter in the world, which the EU as one of their main markets. The EU is about to negotiate an FTA with New Zealand, so will have lots of leverage to push through its asks in other areas.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    There is no option of the UK unilaterally 'remaining' in the Single Market. There could be a potential option, in principle at least, of applying to join EFTA and amending the EEA treaties so that we become non-EU members of the EEA. That would of course mean formal treaty change, requiring the unanimous consent of the 27 EU countries plus the four EFTA countries. Quite how Corbyn thinks that might be achievable in the very limited time available is anyone's guess, but my guess would be that he hasn't got a clue.

    The only other way of remaining in the Single Market would be to cancel Brexit, again involving the unanimous consent of the 27 EU countries. Good luck with that one.
    Hmm. We are too big for EEA/EFTA as was well known way before the referendum. There is no reason why we couldn't do some kind of UK-bespoke deal which did, somehow, mean remaining in the single market and leaving the EU. Call it something imaginative.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TOPPING said:

    Hmm. We are too big for EEA/EFTA as was well known way before the referendum. There is no reason why we couldn't do some kind of UK-bespoke deal which did, somehow, mean remaining in the single market and leaving the EU. Call it something imaginative.

    Sure, in principle we could do some kind of bespoke deal, but that would require the unanimous consent of our EU friends, and is even less practical than the other two possibilities. There simply isn't time, even if the political will existed (which it doesn't).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    Sure, in principle we could do some kind of bespoke deal, but that would require the unanimous consent of our EU friends, and is even less practical than the other two possibilities. There simply isn't time, even if the political will existed (which it doesn't).
    Where there's a will...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520
    surbiton said:

    Yup.
    In which case, he should not have voted for A. 50, and should have campaigned against Brexit at the last election. The die has now been cast.
  • Sean_F said:

    In which case, he should not have voted for A. 50, and should have campaigned against Brexit at the last election. The die has now been cast.
    Brexit has been given enough rope to hang itself.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191
    TOPPING said:

    Where there's a will...
    There's frequently a corpse?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    Brexit has been given enough rope to hang itself.
    Well, I know you've predicted a Peoples' Uprising against Brexit, but that really isn't very likely.
  • It becomes ever clearer that Corbyn has not the faintest idea of what he is talking about every time he contradicts himself about the EU.

    Given that he got barely two 'E's at A Level perhaps this isn't totally surprising....
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    I agree with the thrust of what you are saying, but in all the criticism of the UK government's position, I can't really see anyone making any coherent suggestion as to what exactly they should be doing differently, with the one minor exception that sometimes ministers might have chosen their words more carefully. The UK has made it very clear that we want a trade deal, as frictionless a border as we can get, and a good solution for Ireland. It has also made it very clear that it is prepared to pay something to make this happen. If our EU friends don't want to tango, then there's no dance, but it won't be for want of trying on our part.
    Unfortunately, it's like a mouse trying to lead an elephant in the dance, except the rodent thinks it is the bigger partner...
This discussion has been closed.