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Insomnia rules!

German fans make Nazi salutes and the Guardian still finds a way to make England the baddies:

https://tinyurl.com/yaty5ekw

RobD said:

tlg86 said:

German fans make Nazi salutes and the Guardian still finds a way to make England the baddies:

https://tinyurl.com/yaty5ekw

Unspoofable.

It was a comparison. Do Englands players and management do enough to disassociate themselves from the nastier elements among their ‘supporters’? Germany’s certainly did that night.

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Charles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/petermannionmp/status/906392619181334528

That is a deeply unpleasant article

One of the few genuinely funny female writers. For me she can do no wrong

That would be Marina Elizabeth Catherine Dudley-Williams daughter of Sir Alastair Edgcumbe James Dudley-Williams and Diana Elizabeth Jane Duncan, talking about being authentic ?

FPT. Alanbrooke (if you're around). This really made me laugh! You're such an incorrigable inverted snob. I love it.

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

tlg86 said:

German fans make Nazi salutes and the Guardian still finds a way to make England the baddies:

https://tinyurl.com/yaty5ekw

Unspoofable.

It was a comparison. Do Englands players and management do enough to disassociate themselves from the nastier elements among their ‘supporters’? Germany’s certainly did that night.

Given how far it has come I'd say they haven't done a bad job.

Germany’s players and management I take it!

COMPLETELY OT. Talking about making me laugh.....the lengths people have to go to to get a front page when their star is on the wane

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/4429468/katie-price-urinated-playboy-mansions-grotto/

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

Female presenter on BBC Breakfast has just told us that at the last election "young people left the Conservative Party in their drones."

That I would have liked to have seen.

Wise words.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/906769833571880960

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

Without oil, the world would be both poorer, and more polluted.

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

FPT student loans and the Dementia Tax were equally unpopular, IMO.

I must say I love the idea of EU fans waving German sausages at the Proms

The Dementia Tax furore was predictable, but very unfortunate. I did not agree with it - I preferred the Burnham solution that the Tories weaponised in 2010 - but a wealth-based solution to an unavoidable timebomb makes sense, especially given the additional costs Brexit will impose on social care and the NHS generally.

Funnily enough, I thought it was a reasonable policy, but the middle of an election campaign wasn't the point at which to spring it on the voters. It ought have been floated months previously.

SouthamObserver said:

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

The Christian right in the US used to say that natural disasters were God's judgement on Obama.

Or the gays....

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Wise words.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/906769833571880960

That result would put independence off the agenda, wouldn't it? Though the impending cliff-edge Brexit may change things. Was there a GE poll as well?

Dunno. All Green msps are & will continue to be from the list, so these figures don't really indicate what the 'pro Indy' numbers would be in a new parliament. Afaicr Panelbase don't tend to do WM figs in tandem with Holyrood.

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

The victims are indeed rarely the perpetrators. Cuba, The Windward Islands and Key West are not the guilty parties, but perhaps these storms may change a few minds of decision makers. The USA is a wealthy country and can rebuild. Other countries less so. Maybe some good can ultimately come out of it if a few minds are changed.

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

FPT student loans and the Dementia Tax were equally unpopular, IMO.

I must say I love the idea of EU fans waving German sausages at the Proms

The Dementia Tax furore was predictable, but very unfortunate. I did not agree with it - I preferred the Burnham solution that the Tories weaponised in 2010 - but a wealth-based solution to an unavoidable timebomb makes sense, especially given the additional costs Brexit will impose on social care and the NHS generally.

Neither a wealth tax or the dementia tax was the right solution or a conservative solution to social care.

The better solution is social insurance as used to pay for social care by many countries from Japan to the Netherlands

foxinsoxuk said:

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

The victims are indeed rarely the perpetrators. Cuba, The Windward Islands and Key West are not the guilty parties, but perhaps these storms may change a few minds of decision makers. The USA is a wealthy country and can rebuild. Other countries less so. Maybe some good can ultimately come out of it if a few minds are changed.

Repeat after me: the weather is not the climate, until such time as it is useful for it to be.

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

FPT student loans and the Dementia Tax were equally unpopular, IMO.

I must say I love the idea of EU fans waving German sausages at the Proms

The Dementia Tax furore was predictable, but very unfortunate. I did not agree with it - I preferred the Burnham solution that the Tories weaponised in 2010 - but a wealth-based solution to an unavoidable timebomb makes sense, especially given the additional costs Brexit will impose on social care and the NHS generally.

Neither a wealth tax or the dementia tax was the right solution or a conservative solution to social care.

The better solution is social insurance as used to pay for social care by many countries from Japan to the Netherlands

I'd have no problem with that.

Good to see we are agreed then

I suspect we may disagree on the detail.

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

Great cartoon! 'When a wise man points to the moon only a fool looks at the finger'. Ignore Izzy's pedestrianism.

JosiasJessop said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

The victims are indeed rarely the perpetrators. Cuba, The Windward Islands and Key West are not the guilty parties, but perhaps these storms may change a few minds of decision makers. The USA is a wealthy country and can rebuild. Other countries less so. Maybe some good can ultimately come out of it if a few minds are changed.

Repeat after me: the weather is not the climate, until such time as it is useful for it to be.

Climate relates to weather as mountains relate to rocks. They are not seperate things.

We experience climate as weather, and when exceptional events occur more frequently, then perhaps we should alter the way we do things.

Blair concluded warning Brexit followed by a Corbyn government would be disastrous for Britain

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

I’m not sure it’s a good idea to be in a slow-moving convoy of vehicles on an inter-state if there’s a hurricane approaching.

The hurricane itself is only travelling at around 20mph across the ground, although TBH if I lived in Florida I’d have been out three or four days ago when it became obvious it was going to come ashore.

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

Oi! My spouse is named Pollock!

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

I’m not sure it’s a good idea to be in a slow-moving convoy of vehicles on an inter-state if there’s a hurricane approaching.

The hurricane itself is only travelling at around 20mph across the ground, although TBH if I lived in Florida I’d have been out three or four days ago when it became obvious it was going to come ashore.

Get the impression that the convoys aren’t going a lot quicker than that, but I agree with you; if I’d been there, and could, I’d have been long gone by now! Probably aiming for Tennessee and the hills.

The emphasis is of course on if I could!

dixiedean said:

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

Oi! My spouse is named Pollock!

You're married to a fish???

CarlottaVance said:

So not quite a million then....

Organisers estimated there were between 10,000 and 15,000 people at the start of the march, adding that numbers rose to about 50,000 at its height as people joined along the way.

The police did not provide any estimates and the BBC is unable to verify these figures.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41212505

From the photos they posted, their numbers are an order of magnitude too high.

There were 28,000 at Lord’s yesterday, by way of comparison.

F1: apparently Sainz has signed up with Renault. Big test for both him and Hulkenberg, and a good lineup for Renault.

On today's Panelbase poll does it not strike our unionist posters as significant that 10 years after the election of an SNP Government the NATS are still a country mile ahead of the unionist parties and a full 10 per cent up on what they achieved in 2007.

And that after 3 months of being written off as past it by Scotland's London run media!

HYUFD said:

Blair on Marr now pushing a job offer requirement for EU citizens to meet legitimate concerns about immigration without going through Brexit.

Marr quizzing him on his own failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004

A pretty feeble interview from Marr. No change there, then.

scotslass said:

On today's Panelbase poll does it not strike our unionist posters as significant that 10 years after the election of an SNP Government the NATS are still a country mile ahead of the unionist parties and a full 10 per cent up on what they achieved in 2007.

And that after 3 months of being written off as past it by Scotland's London run media!

The SNP have the support of most people who backed independence, and the Conservatives and Labour have the support of those who opposed it. That doesn't seem surprising.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

You can always depend on the idiots like Dr Fox to make claims about stuff they are utterly ignorant of. It is like saying a white Christmas proves we are going into a new ice age.

From an article in Newsweek on April 28, 1975 titled, “The Cooling World:”
“Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change,” science journalist Peter Gwynne reported. Statements like that are uttered all the time these days, but for the exact opposite reason. One outlandish suggestion for the perceived crisis involved “melting the arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot.”

Casino_Royale said:

Roger said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

Great cartoon! 'When a wise man points to the moon only a fool looks at the finger'. Ignore Izzy's pedestrianism.

Very telling that the two posters who love this cartoon are already very firmly on the political Left.

It will convince precisely no-one else who is not already a true believer, nor does it attempt to; it's there to make the faithful feel good about themselves, and ridicule the rest.

I'm very firmly on the right and found the cartoon amusing.

A lot of environmentalism has a very practical conservative purpose. Where I draw a line is when it turns from science to dogma. If low carbon is required then nuclear fuel is zero carbon yet the Greens won't consider it.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase found that if a Holyrood election were held tomorrow the SNP would be on 42% in the constituency vote, down 5% from the 2016 Scottish election, with the Tories on 28% (+6%), Labour on 22% (-1%), Lib Dems on 6% (-2%) and the Greens at 2% (+1%). Support for a new referendum within 18 months, while the UK negotiates to leave the EU, has fallen to 17%, the lowest level yet, down from 28% in May and 32% in April.

Some 58% say there should not be another independence referendum in the next few years, up from 52% in May. Support for Scottish independence has slipped from 45% in the 2014 referendum to 43%, while opposition is up two points to 57%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/devolution-has-been-a-dud-say-most-scots-7h05s7bfw

In the 2017 local election results in Scotland the SNP got 32% of first preferences. In the 2017 GE, with their allies in the Greens only standing in a couple of seats, they got 37%. I think it is fair to say that the sample size for both those elections was somewhat larger than Panelbase.

I frankly do not believe that poll.

I remember a chat with a pollster who said when it comes to polls in Scotland, sometimes it isn't wise to compare things like that given the diverse voting systems Scotland uses.

I do wonder if events South of The Border might be having an impact North of The Border.

Mr. Sandpit, aye. Palmer being replaced (I'm assuming he's going and not Hulkenberg ) is not surprising, perhaps a little unexpected it's Sainz, but he's got experience and skill.

We'll see what announcement there is on McLaren.

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

Yeah this is all clearly Trump supporters' fault. Let's hope they all die.

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

scotslass said:

On today's Panelbase poll does it not strike our unionist posters as significant that 10 years after the election of an SNP Government the NATS are still a country mile ahead of the unionist parties and a full 10 per cent up on what they achieved in 2007.

And that after 3 months of being written off as past it by Scotland's London run media!

The SNP have the support of most people who backed independence, and the Conservatives and Labour have the support of those who opposed it. That doesn't seem surprising.

Which equates to the SNP being very far from a busted flush, contrary to much subsample-driven Yoon hypotheses.

The subsamples suggesting that the SNP had fallen to third were indeed nonsense. I think they are likely to remain the largest single party in Scotland for some time yet. But the days when they were pushing 50% seem to be behind them, at least for now.

SLAB has had a lot of negative publicity surrounding Kezia's standing down and is effectively leaderless for the present and some months to come. The options being discussed look pretty uninspired too. Even so, I suspect that the Panelbase poll has understated their support to the benefit of the SNP.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Allan said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

Sunshine state not looking so sunny:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

What are the odds that Trump might get the connection between Climate Change and more severe weather?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-already-destroyed-one-142314881.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/irma-hurricane-extreme-weather-events-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a7934211.html

I am trying to resist schadenfreude at the oil city of Houston getting flooded, and Flprida governed by an AGW governor next in line. The poor people who suffer are not generally the Trumpists. This is my favourite cartoon on the issue though:

https://twitter.com/GeneticJen/status/906453349280739328

What a horrible post, people get their lives destroyed when oil cities get flooded. And either you never travel by any form of motorized transport or burn heating oil, or you are a Pollock. That last word was auto corrected but probably better left that way.

You can always depend on the idiots like Dr Fox to make claims about stuff they are utterly ignorant of. It is like saying a white Christmas proves we are going into a new ice age.

From an article in Newsweek on April 28, 1975 titled, “The Cooling World:”
“Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change,” science journalist Peter Gwynne reported. Statements like that are uttered all the time these days, but for the exact opposite reason. One outlandish suggestion for the perceived crisis involved “melting the arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot.”

So what happened? Science or a campaign by some clapped-out politicians?

Scientific progress over a mere 42 years? Sounds implausible to me!

Hurricanes / typhoons / tropical cyclones feed off hot seawater. Seawater temperatures are rising in regions prone to these weather phenomena. Stronger hurricanes will result.

There is a genuine difficulty with posters on this site and stories in the Scottish press.

Most of you assume that the tartan editions of The Sunday Times or The Times or The Telegraph are like their parent papers in London. In other words they all have their editorial lines but by in large their reporting has some reference point to the truth.

They are not. These tartan editions are occupied by small cabals of three or four die hard unionists like Jason Allerdyce and the pals he has recruited who will manipulate any information and present it as negative to the SNP and or independence.

Thus a poll showing after 20 years the Parliament is generally highly popular on every subject is cited (absurdly) as third of those who didn't want it in the first place would now vote to abolish it!

The SNP who are 15 per cent up on the first elections of 1999 and ten per cent up on their result of 2007, after a decade in power, are lanquishing only 14 POINTS AHEAD of their nearest unionist opponent!

Thus it is best not to cite copy from the Sunday Times as anything other than something akin to political leaflets.

The only thing to not from this poll is that contrary to the hopes of unionist papers and posters and despite months of consistent attacks the SNP is still well ahead.

SandyRentool said:

Hurricanes / typhoons / tropical cyclones feed off hot seawater. Seawater temperatures are rising in regions prone to these weather phenomena. Stronger hurricanes will result.

This seems to be the first real hurricane to make landfall in Florida since 2005 although there have been a few close things: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes_(2000–present)

I would certainly not plead this apparent lull in activity as evidence against global warming which I accept is happening. It does suggest, however, that the cause and effect here (if any) is a little more random than you indicate.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase found that if a Holyrood election were held tomorrow the SNP would be on 42% in the constituency vote, down 5% from the 2016 Scottish election, with the Tories on 28% (+6%), Labour on 22% (-1%), Lib Dems on 6% (-2%) and the Greens at 2% (+1%). Support for a new referendum within 18 months, while the UK negotiates to leave the EU, has fallen to 17%, the lowest level yet, down from 28% in May and 32% in April.

Some 58% say there should not be another independence referendum in the next few years, up from 52% in May. Support for Scottish independence has slipped from 45% in the 2014 referendum to 43%, while opposition is up two points to 57%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/devolution-has-been-a-dud-say-most-scots-7h05s7bfw

No wonder WINGS wanted to distract with sub- sample mis-comparisons.....

SandyRentool said:

I guess I should have added 'all other things being equal' at the end of my previous post. Of course there are many other factors at play when it comes to tropical weather.

Yes. This is an interesting, if slightly out of date, chart from the NOAA showing the number of hurricanes to make landfall in the US http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

I think we would struggle to see a clear pattern. There was a peak in the 1930s-40s but it looks pretty consistent with a very slight downward trend otherwise.

The criteria of US landfall may not be the most meaningful of course but it is strange. More energy should equal more violence but it does not seem to be doing so.

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Hurricanes / typhoons / tropical cyclones feed off hot seawater. Seawater temperatures are rising in regions prone to these weather phenomena. Stronger hurricanes will result.

Except of course they haven't. Contrary to the media and alarmists this is not the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall. Nor is the situation of 3 hurricanes in a row unique. And the frequency of the most powerful hurricanes has dropped dramatically (as has the frequency of all Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes). According to the NOAA the period of recent warming over the last 50 years has coincided with a 60% drop in category 4 and 5 hurricanes compared to the previous 50 years.

As with everything to do with the climate, the very straightforward basic lab science does not transfer easily into the vastly more complex real world.

Yes, if you cherry-pick your intervals well enough, it is still possible to deny an increase in storm intensity and frequency. I'm not sure why you'd want to do that though. Overall, both the frequency and intensity of Atlantic storms do appear to be increasing, at least according to this graph from the NOAA website:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Panelbase found that if a Holyrood election were held tomorrow the SNP would be on 42% in the constituency vote, down 5% from the 2016 Scottish election, with the Tories on 28% (+6%), Labour on 22% (-1%), Lib Dems on 6% (-2%) and the Greens at 2% (+1%). Support for a new referendum within 18 months, while the UK negotiates to leave the EU, has fallen to 17%, the lowest level yet, down from 28% in May and 32% in April.

Some 58% say there should not be another independence referendum in the next few years, up from 52% in May. Support for Scottish independence has slipped from 45% in the 2014 referendum to 43%, while opposition is up two points to 57%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/devolution-has-been-a-dud-say-most-scots-7h05s7bfw

No wonder WINGS wanted to distract with sub- sample mis-comparisons.....

The spin and shouting from T'Nats this morning says a lot.

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

scotslass said:

On today's Panelbase poll does it not strike our unionist posters as significant that 10 years after the election of an SNP Government the NATS are still a country mile ahead of the unionist parties and a full 10 per cent up on what they achieved in 2007.

And that after 3 months of being written off as past it by Scotland's London run media!

The SNP have the support of most people who backed independence, and the Conservatives and Labour have the support of those who opposed it. That doesn't seem surprising.

Which equates to the SNP being very far from a busted flush, contrary to much subsample-driven Yoon hypotheses.

The subsamples suggesting that the SNP had fallen to third were indeed nonsense. I think they are likely to remain the largest single party in Scotland for some time yet. But the days when they were pushing 50% seem to be behind them, at least for now.

SLAB has had a lot of negative publicity surrounding Kezia's standing down and is effectively leaderless for the present and some months to come. The options being discussed look pretty uninspired too. Even so, I suspect that the Panelbase poll has understated their support to the benefit of the SNP.

I think uninspired is generous. From my point of view, Sarwar would be preferrable because we know he's f***ing useless at everything apart from spotting the main chance, while we can't be sure of that with Richard Leonard. Mind you, Leonard seems to have tied himself up in familiar knots e.g. a longstanding member of CND but still supporting the retention of Trident, campaigning for Remain but voting to support Article 50, anti austerity while London & Welsh Labour sit on their hands.

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

scotslass said:

On today's Panelbase poll does it not strike our unionist posters as significant that 10 years after the election of an SNP Government the NATS are still a country mile ahead of the unionist parties and a full 10 per cent up on what they achieved in 2007.

And that after 3 months of being written off as past it by Scotland's London run media!

The SNP have the support of most people who backed independence, and the Conservatives and Labour have the support of those who opposed it. That doesn't seem surprising.

Which equates to the SNP being very far from a busted flush, contrary to much subsample-driven Yoon hypotheses.

Who's said they're a busted flush? They're still in office in Holyrood and likely will be for.a long time yet.


What is busted is an imminent second bite at the independence cherry.

Loads of folk, even on this platform for considered and thoughtful analysis.

OchEye said:

The SNP are a busted flush.

Fair enough. I clearly wouldn't agree with OchEye.