politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The numbers game. Alastair Meeks on the forthcoming Parliament

First, and thanks Alastair!

foxinsoxuk said:

Seconded

We have the best contributors to PB, don't we folks? The best!

RobD said:

First, and thanks Alastair!

+1

Hard to disagree with this.

All primary bills will go through at 2nd reading. The Tory-DUP numbers and abstentions from Labour Leavers will see to that.

It's how they get amended at committee and report stage that will be key.

Charles said:

Interesting Alastair, but I think you've over complicated it.

For example, I doubt that either the "dealers" or the "no dealers" will break away from the pack. They will fight hard internally, but when there is a proposal on the table they'll back it.

Similarly Ken Clarke is an honourable and romantic Europhile with a passionate hatred of socialism in all it's forms. He's not going to undermine the party he has served his entire adult life.

(And I don't think it's correct to say Lucas put Euro principle before party - I would group her with the Lib Dems but she's not worthy of special consideration)

The only way you get leverage as a Dealer or No Dealer is not to accept everything. The trick is in choosing the right time to make your stand. If you end up voting with your side every single time you are a loyalist/quiet lifer and will be treated accordingly.

logical_song said:

CarlottaVance said:

The 'Trumpability Index' of Europe - which European country would elect a Trump - Britain ties for 10th place with France:

http://www.politico.eu/article/the-trumpability-index

(Farage) "ultimately found little political success in the U.K. He stood for parliament seven times and lost on every occasion — although the British electoral system didn’t do him any favors. That puts a big question mark over whether a British version of the American president would be successful."

I'd say Farage did pretty well politically.

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainland Europe will be hugely symbolic. Most of the EU citizens I have spoken to in Peterborough do not have a leftwing thought in their heads; they believe in a credo of self-reliance, hard work and home ownership. In a British context, these ideas are as Tory as they come. So how come so many Conservatives now want to slam the door on their most devout adherents?
And what of the economy? Peterborough is one of the largest urban centres of a region of England in which unemployment is below the national average; and in a city of nearly 300,000, a mere 1,770 people are currently claiming out-of-work benefits. Its successive waves of migration from the EU – first Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians, then Bulgarians and Romanians – have fed a job market in which most British people are barely interested. Nonetheless, all of us have come to expect the benefits: cut-price food; consumerism-on-tap; the confidence of knowing that an online click today means a delivery tomorrow; the idea that if the worst comes to the worst, some or other army of care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

Big Earthquake off Mexico;

https://twitter.com/LastQuake/status/906022812330082305/photo/1

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainland Europe will be hugely symbolic. Most of the EU citizens I have spoken to in Peterborough do not have a leftwing thought in their heads; they believe in a credo of self-reliance, hard work and home ownership. In a British context, these ideas are as Tory as they come. So how come so many Conservatives now want to slam the door on their most devout adherents?
And what of the economy? Peterborough is one of the largest urban centres of a region of England in which unemployment is below the national average; and in a city of nearly 300,000, a mere 1,770 people are currently claiming out-of-work benefits. Its successive waves of migration from the EU – first Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians, then Bulgarians and Romanians – have fed a job market in which most British people are barely interested. Nonetheless, all of us have come to expect the benefits: cut-price food; consumerism-on-tap; the confidence of knowing that an online click today means a delivery tomorrow; the idea that if the worst comes to the worst, some or other army of care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

Interesting Alastair, but I think you've over complicated it.

For example, I doubt that either the "dealers" or the "no dealers" will break away from the pack. They will fight hard internally, but when there is a proposal on the table they'll back it.

Similarly Ken Clarke is an honourable and romantic Europhile with a passionate hatred of socialism in all it's forms. He's not going to undermine the party he has served his entire adult life.

(And I don't think it's correct to say Lucas put Euro principle before party - I would group her with the Lib Dems but she's not worthy of special consideration)

The only way you get leverage as a Dealer or No Dealer is not to accept everything. The trick is in choosing the right time to make your stand. If you end up voting with your side every single time you are a loyalist/quiet lifer and will be treated accordingly.

The trick is a credible threat to vote against - if they do and it harms the government (which it will on a significant issue) then they lose too many friends to have future influence

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainland Europe will be hugely symbolic. Most of the EU citizens I have spoken to in Peterborough do not have a leftwing thought in their heads; they believe in a credo of self-reliance, hard work and home ownership. In a British context, these ideas are as Tory as they come. So how come so many Conservatives now want to slam the door on their most devout adherents?
And what of the economy? Peterborough is one of the largest urban centres of a region of England in which unemployment is below the national average; and in a city of nearly 300,000, a mere 1,770 people are currently claiming out-of-work benefits. Its successive waves of migration from the EU – first Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians, then Bulgarians and Romanians – have fed a job market in which most British people are barely interested. Nonetheless, all of us have come to expect the benefits: cut-price food; consumerism-on-tap; the confidence of knowing that an online click today means a delivery tomorrow; the idea that if the worst comes to the worst, some or other army of care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

Yep, it's only the middle class that use one click delivery services and buy cut-price food. And there is not a single working class pensioner in the UK dependent on social care provided by an EU immigrant.

you witter on about people who want to take us back to the fifties

you want to take us back to 1910

the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.

some of us still want a high skill high wage economy

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

Interesting Alastair, but I think you've over complicated it.

For example, I doubt that either the "dealers" or the "no dealers" will break away from the pack. They will fight hard internally, but when there is a proposal on the table they'll back it.

Similarly Ken Clarke is an honourable and romantic Europhile with a passionate hatred of socialism in all it's forms. He's not going to undermine the party he has served his entire adult life.

(And I don't think it's correct to say Lucas put Euro principle before party - I would group her with the Lib Dems but she's not worthy of special consideration)

The only way you get leverage as a Dealer or No Dealer is not to accept everything. The trick is in choosing the right time to make your stand. If you end up voting with your side every single time you are a loyalist/quiet lifer and will be treated accordingly.

The trick is a credible threat to vote against - if they do and it harms the government (which it will on a significant issue) then they lose too many friends to have future influence

If you continually threaten to vote against your party, but never do, then you lose credibility. As I say, the trick is in choosing when to defy the whip.

Varoufakis on ITV now...

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainland Europe will be hugely symbolic. Most of the EU citizens I have spoken to in Peterborough do not have a leftwing thought in their heads; they believe in a credo of self-reliance, hard work and home ownership. In a British context, these ideas are as Tory as they come. So how come so many Conservatives now want to slam the door on their most devout adherents?
And what of the economy? Peterborough is one of the largest urban centres of a region of England in which unemployment is below the national average; and in a city of nearly 300,000, a mere 1,770 people are currently claiming out-of-work benefits. Its successive waves of migration from the EU – first Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians, then Bulgarians and Romanians – have fed a job market in which most British people are barely interested. Nonetheless, all of us have come to expect the benefits: cut-price food; consumerism-on-tap; the confidence of knowing that an online click today means a delivery tomorrow; the idea that if the worst comes to the worst, some or other army of care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts self-starting, hard-working, entrepreneurial people who want to build lives here. Theresa May is determined to ensure that does not happen. It's a shame and will damage us over the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There is no incentive to put in long hours, take risks and put down roots if you know you are going to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside the EU's single market? The whole idea is to get permanent residency, which removes the requirement for you to renew your visa/work permit. For example I have put in a huge number of hours in the US, but I could be kicked out tomorrow (well, in thirty days) if I lose my job.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainland Europe will be hugely symbolic. Most of the EU citizens I have spoken to in Peterborough do not have a leftwing thought in their heads; they believe in a credo of self-reliance, hard work and home ownership. In a British context, these ideas are as Tory as they come. So how come so many Conservatives now want to slam the door on their most devout adherents?
And what of the economy? Peterborough is one of the largest urban centres of a region of England in which unemployment is below the national average; and in a city of nearly 300,000, a mere 1,770 people are currently claiming out-of-work benefits. Its successive waves of migration from the EU – first Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians, then Bulgarians and Romanians – have fed a job market in which most British people are barely interested. Nonetheless, all of us have come to expect the benefits: cut-price food; consumerism-on-tap; the confidence of knowing that an online click today means a delivery tomorrow; the idea that if the worst comes to the worst, some or other army of care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

Yep, it's only the middle class that use one click delivery services and buy cut-price food. And there is not a single working class pensioner in the UK dependent on social care provided by an EU immigrant.

you witter on about people who want to take us back to the fifties

you want to take us back to 1910

the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.

some of us still want a high skill high wage economy

I want the UK to be a place that hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial people want to come to and put down roots in. You seem to believe that the only reason EU immigrants are here is to keep middle class English people in servants.

your article says just that

and then we make it worse by not building houses and infrastructure and crapping on our own people as a result.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainland Europe will be hugely symbolic. Most of the EU citizens I have spoken to in Peterborough do not have a leftwing thought in their heads; they believe in a credo of self-reliance, hard work and home ownership. In a British context, these ideas are as Tory as they come. So how come so many Conservatives now want to slam the door on their most devout adherents?
And -on-tap; the confidence of knowing that an online click today means a delivery tomorrow; the idea that if the worst comes to the worst, some or other army of care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

Yep, it's only the middle class that use one click delivery services and buy cut-price food. And there is not a single working class pensioner in the UK dependent on social care provided by an EU immigrant.

you witter on about people who want to take us back to the fifties

you want to take us back to 1910

the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.

some of us still want a high skill high wage economy

I want the UK to be a place that hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial people want to come to and put down roots in. You seem to believe that the only reason EU immigrants are here is to keep middle class English people in servants.

your article says just that

and then we make it worse by not building houses and infrastructure and crapping on our own people as a result.

No, it doesn't - unless you do genuinely believe that only middle class people buy stuff from Amazon, shop for cut-priced food and have access to care workers. Do you? Seriously?

I agree on the infrastructure. But that is not the EU's fault or the fault of immigrants. That is the fault of the UK government.

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

I think very few countries outside the EU would give you permanent residency on your arrival. maybe after a few years, and going through all the administrative hoops. Maybe Canada and the US?

And I seriously doubt the home office is trying to make it as hard as possible, it's just standardising the rules so that EU and non-EU people are treated the same.

The Home Office has proved time and again that it is not fit for purpose.

It isn't actively trying to make it as hard as possible.

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

Interesting Alastair, but I think you've over complicated it.

For example, I doubt that either the "dealers" or the "no dealers" will break away from the pack. They will fight hard internally, but when there is a proposal on the table they'll back it.

Similarly Ken Clarke is an honourable and romantic Europhile with a passionate hatred of socialism in all it's forms. He's not going to undermine the party he has served his entire adult life.

(And I don't think it's correct to say Lucas put Euro principle before party - I would group her with the Lib Dems but she's not worthy of special consideration)

The only way you get leverage as a Dealer or No Dealer is not to accept everything. The trick is in choosing the right time to make your stand. If you end up voting with your side every single time you are a loyalist/quiet lifer and will be treated accordingly.

The trick is a credible threat to vote against - if they do and it harms the government (which it will on a significant issue) then they lose too many friends to have future influence

If you continually threaten to vote against your party, but never do, then you lose credibility. As I say, the trick is in choosing when to defy the whip.

You don't do politics do you?

@DavidL has it spot on

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts ser the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There is no incentive to put in long hours, take risks and put down roots if you know you are going to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal

you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries

you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing

you can get a bank account easier than anywhere else and a loan

you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt

I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday

You can't set up a company if you do not live here. You have no incentive to set up a company if you are here as a time-limited guest-worker.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of pr us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

Yep, it's only the middle class that use one click delivery services and buy cut-price food. And there is not a single working class pensioner in the UK dependent on social care provided by an EU immigrant.

you witter on about people who want to take us back to the fifties

you want to take us back to 1910

the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.

some of us still want a high skill high wage economy

I want the UK to be a place that hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial people want to come to and put down roots in. You seem to believe that the only reason EU immigrants are here is to keep middle class English people in servants.

your article says just that

and then we make it worse by not building houses and infrastructure and crapping on our own people as a result.

No, it doesn't - unless you do genuinely believe that only middle class people buy stuff from Amazon, shop for cut-priced food and have access to care workers. Do you? Seriously?

I agree on the infrastructure. But that is not the EU's fault or the fault of immigrants. That is the fault of the UK government.

yes it's the UK governments fault for not controlling immigration to a level we can cope with

staring with Blair and running to the current day

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts ser the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There is no incentive to put in long hours, take risks and put down roots if you know you are going to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal

you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries

you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing

you can get a bank account easier than anywhere else and a loan

you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt

I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday

You can't set up a company if you do not live here. You have no incentive to set up a company if you are here as a time-limited guest-worker.

Yeah, but you can move on from being a limited-time guest-worker to have permanent residency, I am not sure why it has to be automatic.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of pr us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

Yep, it's only the middle class that use one click delivery services and buy cut-price food. And there is not a single working class pensioner in the UK dependent on social care provided by an EU immigrant.

you witter on about people who want to take us back to the fifties

you want to take us back to 1910

the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.

some of us still want a high skill high wage economy

I want the UK to be a place that hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial people want to come to and put down roots in. You seem to believe that the only reason EU immigrants are here is to keep middle class English people in servants.

your article says just that

and then we make it worse by not building houses and infrastructure and crapping on our own people as a result.

No, it doesn't - unless you do genuinely believe that only middle class people buy stuff from Amazon, shop for cut-priced food and have access to care workers. Do you? Seriously?

I agree on the infrastructure. But that is not the EU's fault or the fault of immigrants. That is the fault of the UK government.

yes it's the UK governments fault for not controlling immigration to a level we can cope with

staring with Blair and running to the current day

You blame immigrants, I blame government spending decisions. Your solution is to make it harder for self-starting, hard-working entrepreneurial people to come and build lives in the UK; mine is to create more wealth by letting them in and leaving them to grow.

Charles said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts ser the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There is no incentive to put in long hours, take risks and put down roots if you know you are going to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal

you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries

you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing

you can get a bank account easier than anywhere else and a loan

you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt

I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday

Of all the professionals I deal with, public notaries are the only ones I resent paying fees to.

I wonder how difficult it is to become a public notary. I could do with an extra source of income

Charles said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts ser the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There is no incentive to put in long hours, take risks and put down roots if you know you are going to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal

you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries

you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing

you can get a bank account easier than anywhere else and a loan

you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt

I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday

Of all the professionals I deal with, public notaries are the only ones I resent paying fees to.

state sanctioned robbery

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts ser the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There is no incentive to put in long hours, take risks and put down roots if you know you are going to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal

you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries

you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing

you can get a bank account easier than anywhere else and a loan

you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt

I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday

You can't set up a company if you do not live here. You have no incentive to set up a company if you are here as a time-limited guest-worker.

hows that different from the EU 27 ? where's the competitve disadvantage ?

Ive set up companies in France Germany and the Czech Republic

it;s extremely tedious, takes longer than the UK and most of all its very expensive.

then once youve set it up the cost of maintaining them is more onerous

Maybe that's why the UK has been so successful in attracting hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial EU citizens to come and live here. Just a thought.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of pr us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

Yep, it's only the middle class that use one click delivery services and buy cut-price food. And there is not a single working class pensioner in the UK dependent on social care provided by an EU immigrant.

you witter on about people who want to take us back to the fifties

you want to take us back to 1910

the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.

some of us still want a high skill high wage economy

I want the UK to be a place that hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial people want to come to and put down roots in. You seem to believe that the only reason EU immigrants are here is to keep middle class English people in servants.

your article says just that

and then we make it worse by not building houses and infrastructure and crapping on our own people as a result.

No, it doesn't - unless you do genuinely believe that only middle class people buy stuff from Amazon, shop for cut-priced food and have access to care workers. Do you? Seriously?

I agree on the infrastructure. But that is not the EU's fault or the fault of immigrants. That is the fault of the UK government.

yes it's the UK governments fault for not controlling immigration to a level we can cope with

staring with Blair and running to the current day

You blame immigrants, I blame government spending decisions. Your solution is to make it harder for self-starting, hard-working entrepreneurial people to come and build lives in the UK; mine is to create more wealth by letting them in and leaving them to grow.

tosh

as ever you agitprop the extremes and call it normality

just about every who wants to restrict immigration on PB wants controlled immigration which matches the needs of the country and not a ban

and while you waltz around in London lalal land which could of course be different I can assure you up here in the Midlands I am not being pushed about by self-starting, hard-working european entrepreneurs chasing my company;s business

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Another good article, Mr. Meeks. Dark and gloomy here.

Meanwhile, the stats in this story appear not to show bias, but that minorities commit more crime than white people. David 'black smoke' Lammy's answer appears to be to let people off prosecution minor crimes [instead completing a rehab course]. It's unclear if he wants this for everyone, or just people who aren't white.

More importantly, why is demographic over-representation of ethnic minorities horrendous, but over-representation of men, which occurs at a far larger scale, fine? Nobody gives a shit we have over 20 men imprisoned for every 1 woman, but when ethnic minorities comprise 14% of the population but 25% of the prison population something must be done. Indeed, there have been calls from some particularly limp-wristed bedwetters (Clegg) for even softer judicial 'punishments' for women, and just over a decade or so ago the Corston Report recommended not sending women to prison at all.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41191311

Depends which minorities, Chinese and Sikh minorities tend to have lower crime rates than whites

foxinsoxuk said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainland

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

Yep, it's only the middle class that use one click delivery services and buy cut-price food. And there is not a single working class pensioner in the UK dependent on social care provided by an EU immigrant.

you witter on about people who want to take us back to the fifties

you want to take us back to 1910

the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.

some of us still want a high skill high wage economy

I want the UK to be a place that hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial people want to come to and put down roots in. You seem to believe that the only reason EU immigrants are here is to keep middle class English people in servants.

your article says just that

and then we make it worse by not building houses and infrastructure and crapping on our own people as a result.

The grievances that you mention are really austerity related. The parts of the country with the strongest Leave votes were very often places without inward migration, but were adversely impacted by austerity. The same goes demographically, with the retired voting Leave. They rarely have housing problems, indeed often live in houses of inflated values themselves. The parts of the country with decreasing population were some of the strongest Leave areas.

The places with the highest house prices, and swamped infrastructure mostly voted Remain, as did people of working age who were most impacted by housing costs. These are the areas with highest private sector employment.

The Brexit vote was largely driven by austerity, which also explains why so many Kippers switched to Corbynism, and why the £350 million per week for the NHS resonated so well. It is also why Brexit will fail to cure the ills, austerity will worsen as we become the sick man of Europe again.

Guff

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts ser the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There is no incentive to put in long hours, take risks and put down roots if you know you are going to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run youyou, or maybe another holiday

You can't set up a company if you do not live here. You have no incentive to set up a company if you are here as a time-limited guest-worker.

hows that different from the EU 27 ? where's the competitve disadvantage ?

Ive set up companies in France Germany and the Czech Republic

it;s extremely tedious, takes longer than the UK and most of all its very expensive.

then once youve set it up the cost of maintaining them is more onerous

Maybe that's why the UK has been so successful in attracting hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial EU citizens to come and live here. Just a thought.

yes, we make it easy and tightening up a bit still leaves a huge competitive advantage with the UK. it doesnt bring the wold to a stop.

O/T. Guardian says the Morror is likely to take over the Express (and Star) Wonder if that’ll mean the Express comes a bit closer to reality.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts ser the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There is no incentive to put in long hours, take risks and put down roots if you know you are going to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal

you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries

you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing

you can get a bank account easier than anywhere else and a loan

you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt

I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday

You can't set up a company if you do not live here. You have no incentive to set up a company if you are here as a time-limited guest-worker.

hows that different from the EU 27 ? where's the competitve disadvantage ?

Ive set up companies in France Germany and the Czech Republic

it;s extremely tedious, takes longer than the UK and most of all its very expensive.

then once youve set it up the cost of maintaining them is more onerous

And so it's your aim to bring the UK down to their level. Well it's one way of approaching it.

King Cole, the merged headlines sound horrendous.

"How lower carbon emissions can cure Alzheimer's."

"Removing Nelson's column is what Diana would have wanted."

"Worst winter storm for a century predicted following refusal to return Elgin Marbles."

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

Surely by far the largest grouping in the Commons is the careerists. Almost all MPs ultimately belong to this grouping although some eccentrics who have very safe seats personally and no ministerial prospects are more sanguine about the consequences for their colleagues than others.

In some ways the tiny majority that the government enjoys limits the scope for the token protest on their side. Everyone, even bone heads like Peter Bone, is very aware that the government has no room for manoeuvre. I agree with Alastair that this means they will fight for what they want internally (such as more control of the Ministerial discretion) but then support the group decision...

I think that unlikely in the case of the Withdrawal Bill. Unamended, there's no way that (say) Ken Clarke or Dominic Grieve will vote for it; I would expect extensive amendments to be voted through.
Likewise, Leadsom's Jacobite changes to Commons rules will probably struggle to gain acceptance.

In themselves, these might be small defeats, but they will both encourage, and grant further opportunities for, further opposition.

I wonder, though, whether the Bill isn't designed to accommodate some concessions. Some of the measures seem so OTT as to be more or less indefensible. It's possible to think that actually we're NOT going to have a very rough ride in the Commons - the swing votes will be the Dealers (as Alastair's excellent analysis impliicitly identifies), and the Bill perhaps quite cleverly sets up some deals for them. Perhaps they'll feel that if the Henry VIII excesses are watered down and some special causes addressed, honour is satisfied and they can vote the rest through.

stodge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Morning all. Just got up (bloody gloomy, innit?) and wanted to know how last nite's local elections went. There were rather a lot of them and can't be arsed to trawl back.

In a word, anyone....?

Morning, sir. As always with local by-elections, something for everyone.

With one seat counting this morning, a net five losses for the Conservatives (six actual losses, three to Labour, two to the Greens and one to the LDs offset by a gain from the LDs)

Net three gains for Labour, two gains for the Greens and no change for the LDs.

Small turnouts generally as you'd expect - a couple of headlines, a poor LD result in Colchester confirming how far the party has sunk there since Bob Russell lost the seat offset by a nice gain not too far away in Ely.

In my "manor", to use the expression, a solid LAB hold in South Norwood, a seat which has been a marginal in past Croydon contests. A swing of about 5% to Labour since 2014 suggesting Labour will likely retain control of Croydon next year. Good upswing in the LD vote in a seat the party once worked quite hard.

Sorry, more than one word..

Huge uptick in Green vote to take a seat in Cannock Chase:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/905935451504205830

Some very encouraging local election results for Labour yesterday especially in Scotland.I'm on TMay going next year but she's like a clingon on a hairy arse and could drop off at any time.I still think when the Tory polling hits low to mid 30s on a regular basis expect the Tory default psyche to go from complacency to a full-blown panic attack.She might just make Christmas,the time when non-performing Premier League managers are given the push.I find the 9-2 about a Jan to March 2018 departure v. tempting and the Morgan Stanley report hints at 2018 as well.
The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.

volcanopete said:

Some very encouraging local election results for Labour yesterday especially in Scotland.I'm on TMay going next year but she's like a clingon on a hairy arse and could drop off at any time.I still think when the Tory polling hits low to mid 30s on a regular basis expect the Tory default psyche to go from complacency to a full-blown panic attack.She might just make Christmas,the time when non-performing Premier League managers are given the push.I find the 9-2 about a Jan to March 2018 departure v. tempting and the Morgan Stanley report hints at 2018 as well.
The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.

The Conservative Party is brutally pragmatic. They will only turn against Theresa May when a) she has outlived her usefulness as leader and that probably means at the end of the A50 negotiation process or b) it is demonstrably clear another leader would improve the ratings of the Party so much as to safe the seats of a considerable number of backbenchers (and others).

It's clear some see Boris's bonhomie and silliness as a way of re-connecting with the voters and a way of ensuring continued Conservative Government. The fact Boris has no ideological consistency and is arguably even more of an interventionist than May won't matter as long as he delivers election success.

None of it matters - all that matters is keeping the Conservative Party in Government. Out of Government (as we saw in the Blair years), the Conservative Party is of little use to anyone.

stodge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Thanks Stodge, very helpful.

How's the punting going? Been slack around here but the NH starts to crank up a gear soon, and I'm really looking forward to the new season. Seen any interesting juveniles.

(Horses, that is. Ahem.)

Are we talking juvenile hurdlers or promising 2-y-o ? If the former, no, not really as anything that wins a Class 4 or lower handicap over a mile and a quarter as a 3-y-o "could" be a Triumph Hurdle prospect for next year.

As for 2-y-o this season, plenty who look good and run well on debut but don't always go on. I was at Sandown at the back end of July and saw one called BOLD REASON, from the Gosden yard, run fourth in a 7-furlong maiden. He was my paddock pick that night and will learn a lot from the experience. Probably no world beater.

Like you, I always like a good maiden in the autumn (Ahem).

Oo..er...Missus! Get you, cheeky boy. (How's my JackW impersonation going?)

Fraid the flat will always be for me a way to pass the time until the real stuff gets going again. I note your paddock pick though, and will look out for it.

Btw, Richard Johnson is riding out of his skin at the moment. I've always thought the difference a jockey makes is fairly marginal - most can boot home the best horse if they are on it - but I've seen him steal a few this year and he seems rejuvenated.

Whatever he's on, I want some....in more ways than one.

Alanbrooke said:

TOPPING said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK's interests to be a place that attracts ser the coming years - both in practical and reputational terms.

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There ing to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal

you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries

you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing

you can get a bank account easier than anywhere else and a loan

you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt

I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday

You can't set up a company if you do not live here. You have no incentive to set up a company if you are here as a time-limited guest-worker.

hows that different from the EU 27 ? where's the competitve disadvantage ?

Ive set up companies in France Germany and the Czech Republic

it;s extremely tedious, takes longer than the UK and most of all its very expensive.

then once youve set it up the cost of maintaining them is more onerous

And so it's your aim to bring the UK down to their level. Well it's one way of approaching it.

tough night ?

Well that is the implication of your post.

Excellent night thanks. Saw John le Carre talk about his and George Smiley's life. What a patriot Smiley was. What a good believer in Europe also.

TOPPING said:

Alanbrooke said:

TOPPING said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainl care workers will be there to look after us.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

I see no reason why the government wouldn't let them stay. More difficult for their fellow nationals to make the same journey, maybe.

It is in the UK'

I'm sure the UK will be doing all it can to encourage the type of people you describe.

You don't attract them by putting a time limit on how long they can stay here. There ing to be forced to leave a few years down the line.

Isn't it like that in all countries outside thmy job.

Could be - I don't know. What I do know is that while we are seeking to make it as hard as possible for self-starting entrepreneurs from Europe to build their lives here, 27 other European countries are not.

what nonsense the UK is among the easiest places in Europe to set up a business ,

you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal

you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries

you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing

you can get a
you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt

I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday

You can't set up a company if you do not live here. You have no incentive to set up a company if you are here as a time-limited guest-worker.

hows that different from the EU 27 ? where's the competitve disadvantage ?

Ive set up companies in France Germany and the Czech Republic

it;s extremely tedious, takes longer than the UK and most of all its very expensive.

then once youve set it up the cost of maintaining them is more onerous

And so it's your aim to bring the UK down to their level. Well it's one way of approaching it.

tough night ?

Well that is the implication of your post.

Excellent night thanks. Saw John le Carre talk about his and George Smiley's life. What a patriot Smiley was. What a good believer in Europe also.

https://twitter.com/jasoncowleyns/status/906057770721574912

Peter_the_Punter said:

stodge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Thanks Stodge, very helpful.

How's the punting going? Been slack around here but the NH starts to crank up a gear soon, and I'm really looking forward to the new season. Seen any interesting juveniles.

(Horses, that is. Ahem.)

Are we talking juvenile hurdlers or promising 2-y-o ? If the former, no, not really as anything that wins a Class 4 or lower handicap over a mile and a quarter as a 3-y-o "could" be a Triumph Hurdle prospect for next year.

As for 2-y-o this season, plenty who look good and run well on debut but don't always go on. I was at Sandown at the back end of July and saw one called BOLD REASON, from the Gosden yard, run fourth in a 7-furlong maiden. He was my paddock pick that night and will learn a lot from the experience. Probably no world beater.

Like you, I always like a good maiden in the autumn (Ahem).

I've always thought the difference a jockey makes is fairly marginal - most can boot home the best horse if they are on it -

Eh??

Mick Kinane on Grand Lodge in the St. James's Palace Stakes
Lester on Royal Academy at the Breeders' Cup
John Francome on Sea Pigeon in the Champion Hurdle
Luke Harvey on Cool Ground in the Welsh National
etc...etc

foxinsoxuk said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

A very fine article ...

... the fate of a lot of people from mainland

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future

english middle class people want cheap servants shock

they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves

Yep, it's only the middle class that use one click delivery services and buy cut-price food. And there is not a single working class pensioner in the UK dependent on social care provided by an EU immigrant.

you witter on about people who want to take us back to the fifties

you want to take us back to 1910

the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.

some of us still want a high skill high wage economy

I want the UK to be a place that hardworking, self-starting, entrepreneurial people want to come to and put down roots in. You seem to believe that the only reason EU immigrants are here is to keep middle class English people in servants.

your article says just that

and then we make it worse by not building houses and infrastructure and crapping on our own people as a result.

The grievances that you mention are really austerity related. The parts of the country with the strongest Leave votes were very often places without inward migration, but were adversely impacted by austerity. The same goes demographically, with the retired voting Leave. They rarely have housing problems, indeed often live in houses of inflated values themselves. The parts of the country with decreasing population were some of the strongest Leave areas.

The places with the highest house prices, and swamped infrastructure mostly voted Remain, as did people of working age who were most impacted by housing costs. These are the areas with highest private sector employment.

The Brexit vote was largely driven by austerity, which also explains why so many Kippers switched to Corbynism, and why the £350 million per week for the NHS resonated so well. It is also why Brexit will fail to cure the ills, austerity will worsen as we become the sick man of Europe again.

Up to a point. Deprived areas tended to vote Leave, but then, so did the economically dynamic South East.

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, the merged headlines sound horrendous.

"How lower carbon emissions can cure Alzheimer's."

"Removing Nelson's column is what Diana would have wanted."

"Worst winter storm for a century predicted following refusal to return Elgin Marbles."

LOL!!!!!

The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.

BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.

They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.

The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

volcanopete said:

Some very encouraging local election results for Labour yesterday especially in Scotland.I'm on TMay going next year but she's like a clingon on a hairy arse and could drop off at any time.I still think when the Tory polling hits low to mid 30s on a regular basis expect the Tory default psyche to go from complacency to a full-blown panic attack.She might just make Christmas,the time when non-performing Premier League managers are given the push.I find the 9-2 about a Jan to March 2018 departure v. tempting and the Morgan Stanley report hints at 2018 as well.
The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.

Yet no poll has the Tories anywhere near 35% or less, the Tory poll range is 38 to 42% currently though I agree Labour could overtake the SNP next time or at least ensure they only have a minority of seats

Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.

What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time

TOPPING said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TOPPING said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

stodge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Thanks Stodge, very helpful.

How's the punting going? Been slack around here but the NH starts to crank up a gear soon, and I'm really looking forward to the new season. Seen any interesting juveniles.

(Horses, that is. Ahem.)

Are we talking juvenile hurdlers or promising 2-y-o ? If the former, no, not really as anything that wins a Class 4 or lower handicap over a mile and a quarter as a 3-y-o "could" be a Triumph Hurdle prospect for next year.

As for 2-y-o this season, plenty who look good and run well on debut but don't always go on. I was at Sandown at the back end of July and saw one called BOLD REASON, from the Gosden yard, run fourth in a 7-furlong maiden. He was my paddock pick that night and will learn a lot from the experience. Probably no world beater.

Like you, I always like a good maiden in the autumn (Ahem).

I've always thought the difference a jockey makes is fairly marginal - most can boot home the best horse if they are on it -

Eh??

Mick Kinane on Grand Lodge in the St. James's Palace Stakes
Lester on Royal Academy at the Breeders' Cup
John Francome on Sea Pigeon in the Champion Hurdle
Luke Harvey on Cool Ground in the Welsh National
etc...etc

Lol! I won't argue, but just for fun, check out Mick Kinane on Rock Of Gibraltar in the Breeders Cup. He certainly made a difference that day!

And as for Leg-Lock Luke....well!

People also forget about Adrian Maguire who in his day was a sort of mini-AP and owners were happy to have him up.

He was good, no doubt, and incredibly competitive, but reckless. We'll never know how good he might have become though because of his terrible injury. He may have matured like McCoy, who was in my opinion a much better jockey in his later years than when he was rushing home super-fit Pipe horses from the front in his early days.

CD13 said:

The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.

BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.

They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.

The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?

In fairness, I don't think David Lammy is blaming racism for everything. Headlines often bear little relation to the substance of reports.

CD13 said:

The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.

BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.

They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.

The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?

Lammy is catching Abbott up fast for seeing racism everywhere.

Mr F,

After reading the Guardian report of his speech which did quote him, I will give Lammy credit for being a little more nuanced than the BBC report. But he does start off by assuming the cause of the problem. My scientific hackles always rise at that. Scientists are sometimes biased too, but usually not so blatantly.

Peter_the_Punter said:

TOPPING said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TOPPING said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

stodge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Thanks Stodge, very helpful.

How's the punting going? Been slack around here but the NH starts to crank up a gear soon, and I'm really looking forward to the new season. Seen any interesting juveniles.

(Horses, that is. Ahem.)

Are we talking juvenile hurdlers or promising 2-y-o ? If the former, no, not really as anything that wins a Class 4 or lower handicap over a mile and a quarter as a 3-y-o "could" be a Triumph Hurdle prospect for next year.

As for 2-y-o this season, plenty who look good and run well on debut but don't always go on. I was at Sandown at the back end of July and saw one called BOLD REASON, from the Gosden yard, run fourth in a 7-furlong maiden. He was my paddock pick that night and will learn a lot from the experience. Probably no world beater.

Like you, I always like a good maiden in the autumn (Ahem).

I've always thought the difference a jockey makes is fairly marginal - most can boot home the best horse if they are on it -

Eh??

Mick Kinane on Grand Lodge in the St. James's Palace Stakes
Lester on Royal Academy at the Breeders' Cup
John Francome on Sea Pigeon in the Champion Hurdle
Luke Harvey on Cool Ground in the Welsh National
etc...etc

Lol! I won't argue, but just for fun, check out Mick Kinane on Rock Of Gibraltar in the Breeders Cup. He certainly made a difference that day!

And as for Leg-Lock Luke....well!

People also forget about Adrian Maguire who in his day was a sort of mini-AP and owners were happy to have him up.

He was good, no doubt, and incredibly competitive, but reckless. We'll never know how good he might have become though because of his terrible injury. He may have matured like McCoy, who was in my opinion a much better jockey in his later years than when he was rushing home super-fit Pipe horses from the front in his early days.

Yes he definitely had that reckless streak. And yes also about McCoy. I don't think Martin Pipe made many friends in the racing community when he started out, and arguably throughout his career, but his methods were certainly effective.

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Yet no poll has the Tories anywhere near 35% or less, the Tory poll range is 38 to 42% currently though I agree Labour could overtake the SNP next time or at least ensure they only have a minority of seats

I agree up to a point. I think political opinion has been roughly frozen since the election - Labour got a modest extra surge from small-m momentum, but otherwise most people have put politics on hold while they enjoy their holidays and idly wait to see what emerges from the Brexit mess. I wouldn't describe it as a success for May or a failure for Corbyn, more a holding pattern. It is, after all, just 3 months since the election! (Feels more like a year, doesn't it?)

Normally one would expect some serious mid-term problems in a year or so. Brexit makes predictions based on past experience difficult to judge, though - people will see politics mainly through the prism of whether negotiators are being seen to be doing a good job for Britain. The Tories might be doing quite well, or really awfully. Who knows?

Pretty much yes, and whilst Brexit could make the Tories unpopular, similarly people will look at labour and Corbyn in a way they didn't at the last election (ie as a potential government, rather than just a safe protest vote).