politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If May cannot deliver a Brexit deal then Labour should call a
Comments
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I imagine you do not read UK Polling Report then Alan ?Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important0 -
You've been saying that since the election......when WILL we see the Tory collapse? Around the same time as the surge to Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He's nothing if not strong and stable.Alanbrooke said:
except of course that you got there by refusing to change direction and stuck with a clapped out continental managerTOPPING said:
The analogy here is with Arsenal football club. Time was, not so long ago, when we strode the world as a top team. We reached the Champions League final, and weren't that far away a few more times, and at least got there to give it a go. Premiership titles? By the handful, and if we didn't win it we were pipped for it usually in the last week or two.YellowSubmarine said:#1 It's still very early days. #2 These sorts of negotiations are always a bit pantomime, It suits both sides to be Drama Queens for domestic consumption. #3 We're negotiating with an economy 9 times our size. A good degree of this isn't things going badly it just the economic fundamentals playing out now the political narratives of the referendum are facing and reality reasserts it's self. #4 Yes the talks are going badly but that's only because most of the presuppositions of the Leave campaign are turning out to be untrue, their was no plan, the government is divided, A50 invocation was rushed then the GE... Brexit is a Crock of ****. It's not a competency issue. No one could successfully negotiate a good Brexit from this starting point. #5 I go back to it being early days. The creative genius/fatal flaw of the EU is being able to craft last minute fudges which kick the can down the road. And we still have 18 months which s an eternity in politics. A deal can be done.
Though I increasingly go back to my Brexit Paradox. " Brexit can only happen in international circumstances which prevent it succeeding. "
And now? We seem to have given all that up. Top four is a huge aspiration and not guaranteed. We can dream of the Champions League and I fear for our performance in the Europa Cup. We have become if not a minnow, then a second, perhaps third tier player and our relationship to the world of football has deteriorated accordingly.
And THAT, my friends, is the correct analogy for the UK and Brexit.
(sorry Sam is not here to agree..)0 -
I lurk occasionallyYorkcity said:
I imagine you do not read UK Polling Report then Alan ?Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important
but talking to my workforce Brexit just isn't what they think about
Equally last night was the big German election TV debate - Merkel v Schulz
Ive yet to find a mention of Brexit in the debate0 -
Presumably you think this is because they don't know what's good for them? Surely they should be impatiently counting the days until the unicorns arrive...Alanbrooke said:but talking to my workforce Brexit just isn't what they think about
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Any political party is free to campaign at the next General Election for a referendum to (likely) rejoin the EU - let's see how they do!FF43 said:
Although I am not proposing a second referendum and there is no sign yet of a collective change of heart, but if the country DID change its mind on leaving the EU wouldn't it be UNDEMOCRATIC to ignore it?CarlottaVance said:Mark Thompson
You don’t believe that the Brexit decision should be reversed by parliament or a second referendum…
There are some European countries like the Republic of Ireland and France where, as it were, the electorates may be prepared to countenance being given a second chance to resit the exam and come up with the “right” answer. With the UK, the referendum was regarded at the time as being definitive by the majority of the country. To return to it risks seeming like a stab in the back by the elite.
https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2017/sep/03/mark-thompson-observer-interview-trump-brexit0 -
I suspect if there was an election, now, it'd result in another hung parliament, with the Tories ahead on seats. By how many, I'm not sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Corbynistas would be motivated, but so would everyone else who opposed that and, this time, they'd realise the threat of him as PM was deadly serious.0 -
He's nothingTOPPING said:
He's nothing if not strong and stable.Alanbrooke said:
except of course that you got there by refusing to change direction and stuck with a clapped out continental managerTOPPING said:
The analogy here is with Arsenal football club. Time was, not so long ago, when we strode the world as a top team. We reached the Champions League final, and weren't that far away a few more times, and at least got there to give it a go. Premiership titles? By the handful, and if we didn't win it we were pipped for it usually in the last week or two.YellowSubmarine said:#1 It's still very early days. #2 These sorts of negotiations are always a bit pantomime, It suits both sides to be Drama Queens for domestic consumption. #3 We're negotiating with an economy 9 times our size. A good degree of this isn't things going badly it just the economic fundamentals playing out now the political narratives of the referendum are facing and reality reasserts it's self. #4 Yes the talks are going badly but that's only because most of the presuppositions of the Leave campaign are turning out to be untrue, their was no plan, the government is divided, A50 invocation was rushed then the GE... Brexit is a Crock of ****. It's not a competency issue. No one could successfully negotiate a good Brexit from this starting point. #5 I go back to it being early days. The creative genius/fatal flaw of the EU is being able to craft last minute fudges which kick the can down the road. And we still have 18 months which s an eternity in politics. A deal can be done.
Though I increasingly go back to my Brexit Paradox. " Brexit can only happen in international circumstances which prevent it succeeding. "
And now? We seem to have given all that up. Top four is a huge aspiration and not guaranteed. We can dream of the Champions League and I fear for our performance in the Europa Cup. We have become if not a minnow, then a second, perhaps third tier player and our relationship to the world of football has deteriorated accordingly.
And THAT, my friends, is the correct analogy for the UK and Brexit.
(sorry Sam is not here to agree..)
time to go0 -
We have Diana tedium (again) at the moment.HYUFD said:Congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge on their news, so we will have a new royal baby next year which will provide some break in Brexit tedium
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TSE = Tediously Same EditorialsCarlottaVance said:
You've been saying that since the election......when WILL we see the Tory collapse? Around the same time as the surge to Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
and who do you see as being the replacement to take Arsenal to "the next level"?Alanbrooke said:
He's nothingTOPPING said:
He's nothing if not strong and stable.Alanbrooke said:
except of course that you got there by refusing to change direction and stuck with a clapped out continental managerTOPPING said:
The analogy here is with Arsenal football club. Time was, not so long ago, when we strode the world as a top team. We reached the Champions League final, and weren't that far away a few more times, and at least got there to give it a go. Premiership titles? By the handful, and if we didn't win it we were pipped for it usually in the last week or two.YellowSubmarine said:#1 It's still very early days. #2 These sorts of negotiations are always a bit pantomime, It suits both sides to be Drama Queens for domestic consumption. #3 We're negotiating with an economy 9 times our size. A good degree of this isn't things going badly it just the economic fundamentals playing out now the political narratives of the referendum are facing and reality reasserts it's self. #4 Yes the talks are going badly but that's only because most of the presuppositions of the Leave campaign are turning out to be untrue, their was no plan, the government is divided, A50 invocation was rushed then the GE... Brexit is a Crock of ****. It's not a competency issue. No one could successfully negotiate a good Brexit from this starting point. #5 I go back to it being early days. The creative genius/fatal flaw of the EU is being able to craft last minute fudges which kick the can down the road. And we still have 18 months which s an eternity in politics. A deal can be done.
Though I increasingly go back to my Brexit Paradox. " Brexit can only happen in international circumstances which prevent it succeeding. "
And now? We seem to have given all that up. Top four is a huge aspiration and not guaranteed. We can dream of the Champions League and I fear for our performance in the Europa Cup. We have become if not a minnow, then a second, perhaps third tier player and our relationship to the world of football has deteriorated accordingly.
And THAT, my friends, is the correct analogy for the UK and Brexit.
(sorry Sam is not here to agree..)
time to go
Typical Brexiter - wants to destroy everything with no thought as to what might sensibly and practically replace it. We can all kick the dog when things elsewhere don't go well for us, but a long term strategic solution it is not.0 -
I let them think what they want, its why I'm not a eurofanaticwilliamglenn said:
Presumably you think this is because they don't know what's good for them? Surely they should be impatiently counting the days until the unicorns arrive...Alanbrooke said:but talking to my workforce Brexit just isn't what they think about
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I'm not sure Labour shouting about a transition last week counts as getting there first, nor is it clear what political rewards are there to be earned even if it did, except in the most confirmation prone bias minds.Scott_P said:
So in all but name, the government has lined up continued membership of the customs union, the single market including free movement of people (almost — the finessing job of extending ECJ jurisdiction is unfinished), and the membership fee. What Churchill apocryphally said about the Americans may apply to the current British government: it looks like it will end up doing the right thing after trying everything else, at least on the short-term policy. The problems are twofold. Labour got there first, and will earn the political rewards. And much more importantly: the government has wasted a lot of time for everyone by taking so long.
https://www.ft.com/content/de8ce6e4-8f23-11e7-9084-d0c17942ba93
The FT really should decide if it's line of attack on HMG is that it's pursuing a 'pointless' soft Brexit, or an 'reckless' hard Brexit, lest its broader readership think they simply mindlessly worship all things EU.0 -
Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.
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I reckon the Tories lose at least half a dozen seats in London alone but I reckon the fear of Corbyn as PM might offset those losses.Casino_Royale said:
I suspect if there was an election, now, it'd result in another hung parliament, with the Tories ahead on seats. By how many, I'm not sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Corbynistas would be motivated, but so would everyone else who opposed that and, this time, they'd realise the threat of him as PM was deadly serious.
But can Ruth Davidson hold onto those Tory gains (and maybe win a few more?) makes the election hard to call.0 -
Arsenal are struggling to stay on the level they are onTOPPING said:
and who do you see as being the replacement to take Arsenal to "the next level"?Alanbrooke said:
He's nothingTOPPING said:
He's nothing if not strong and stable.Alanbrooke said:
except of course that you got there by refusing to change direction and stuck with a clapped out continental managerTOPPING said:
The analogy here is with Arsenal football club. Time was, not so long ago, when we strode the world as a top team. We reached the Champions League final, and weren't that far away a few more times, and at least got there to give it a go. Premiership titles? By the handful, and if we didn't win it we were pipped for it usually in the last week or two.YellowSubmarine said:#1 It's still very early days. #2 These sorts of negotiations are always a bit pantomime, It suits both sides to be Drama Queens for domestic consumption. #3 We're negotiating with an economy 9 times our size. A good degree of this isn't things going badly it just the economic fundamepolitics. A deal can be done.
Though I increasingly go back to my Brexit Paradox. " Brexit can only happen in international circumstances which prevent it succeeding. "
And now? We seem to have given all that up. Top four is a huge aspiration and not guaranteed. We can dream of the Champions League and I fear for our performance in the Europa Cup. We have become if not a minnow, then a second, perhaps third tier player and our relationship to the world of football has deteriorated accordingly.
And THAT, my friends, is the correct analogy for the UK and Brexit.
(sorry Sam is not here to agree..)
time to go
Typical Brexiter - wants to destroy everything with no thought as to what might sensibly and practically replace it. We can all kick the dog when things elsewhere don't go well for us, but long term strategic solution it is not.
The longer you cling on to Wenger the longer you will need to recover
Your clubs just Arsene about, they have signed him up to take you in to the Championship over the next three years0 -
One of us has been proven right about Mrs May, and it ain't you.Alanbrooke said:
TSE = Tediously Same EditorialsCarlottaVance said:
You've been saying that since the election......when WILL we see the Tory collapse? Around the same time as the surge to Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
But Labour would lose such a vote of confidence. It does not have the numbers.0
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Then he is mistaken.TGOHF said:Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.
Take Soubry, for instance. She is a fervent and outspoken Tory Remainer, to be sure, but she hates Socialism.
She might vote with them tactically on amendments during committee and 3rd reading. But, if she smells those sort of games, she won't play. Same goes for Nicky Morgan.
I confess I am not so sure about Sarah Wollaston or Heidi Allen, both of whom I could see crossing the floor to the LDs.0 -
You can rely on Ken Clarke supporting the government.Casino_Royale said:
Then he is mistaken.TGOHF said:Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.
Take Soubry, for instance. She is a fervent and outspoken Tory Remainer, to be sure, but she hates Socialism.
She might vote with them tactically on amendments during committee and 3rd reading. But, if she smells those sort of games, she won't play. Same goes for Nicky Morgan.
I confess I am not so sure about Sarah Wollaston or Heidi Allen, both of whom I could see crossing the floor to the LDs.
He said a while back the first half of his political career was ensuring the likes of Corbyn were scorched from the face of the Earth and he wasn't going to put him in power.0 -
Ohh tetchyTheScreamingEagles said:
One of us has been proven right about Mrs May, and it ain't you.Alanbrooke said:
TSE = Tediously Same EditorialsCarlottaVance said:
You've been saying that since the election......when WILL we see the Tory collapse? Around the same time as the surge to Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
However since I haven't said much about Mrs May I don't think theres anything to prove
Except of course I will be eternally grateful for her taking Osborne out of politics
Currently I'm reading All Out War, I haven't laughed so much in ages
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A typical Brexiter has lost confidence in the EU, no longer wishes the UK to be a member pooling its powers with it, and wants to negotiate a new trading relationship from the outside.TOPPING said:
and who do you see as being the replacement to take Arsenal to "the next level"?Alanbrooke said:
He's nothingTOPPING said:
He's nothing if not strong and stable.Alanbrooke said:
except of course that you got there by refusing to change direction and stuck with a clapped out continental managerTOPPING said:
The analogy here is with Arsenal football club. Time was, not so long ago, when we strode the world as a top team. We reached the Champions League final, and weren't that far away a few more times, and at least got there to give it a go. Premiership titles? By the handful, and if we didn't win it we were pipped for it usually in the last week or two.YellowSubmarine said:#1 It's still very early days. #2 These sorts of negotiations are always a bit pantomime, It suits both sides to be Drama Queens for domestic consumption. #3 We're negotiating with an economy 9 times our size. A good degree of this isn't things going badly it just the economic fundamentals playing out now the political narratives of the referendum are facing and reality reasserts it's self. #4 Yes the talks are going badly but that's only because most of the presuppositions of the Leave campaign are turning out to be untrue, their was no plan, the government is divided, A50 invocation was rushed then the GE... Brexit is a Crock of ****. It's not a competency issue. No one could successfully negotiate a good Brexit from this starting point. #5 I go back to it being early days. The creative genius/fatal flaw of the EU is being able to craft last minute fudges which kick the can down the road. And we still have 18 months which s an eternity in politics. A deal can be done.
Though I increasingly go back to my Brexit Paradox. " Brexit can only happen in international circumstances which prevent it succeeding. "
And now? We seem to have given all that up. Top four is a huge aspiration and not guaranteed. We can dream of the Champions League and I fear for our performance in the Europa Cup. We have become if not a minnow, then a second, perhaps third tier player and our relationship to the world of football has deteriorated accordingly.
And THAT, my friends, is the correct analogy for the UK and Brexit.
(sorry Sam is not here to agree..)
time to go
Typical Brexiter - wants to destroy everything with no thought as to what might sensibly and practically replace it. We can all kick the dog when things elsewhere don't go well for us, but a long term strategic solution it is not.
Try starting from there.0 -
This has been covered very thoroughly in the past. The UK did not commit to funding the EU budget; there is no sharing of liabilities; there is no sharing of assets; the UK is not responsible for pensions of UK staff. There is only the treaties.welshowl said:
Well the EU should be able to itemise the bill then shouldn't they? But it's more like we said "Ok for a couple of bottles of red" and they'd like to interpret that as anything up to Petrus Grand Cru 1982 at £4K a bottle.148grss said:I don't understand why so many people are upset about the "Brexit Bill". As far as I'm aware all the EU is asking for is money we had previously said we would pay, as part of our role as a member state. We have spent the last few years exerting our political pressure, with our directly and indirectly elected members, to sway how money gets spent. During that time we assured we would pay our part. There is nothing punitive about paying for things we shaped and agreed to.
Imagine going to a restaurant with 27 friends, ordering shared starters, shared mains, shared deserts and bottles of wine. You said you'd share a plate of X but only if it had no mayo, a plate of Y, but with added kale, etc. etc. After the first two courses and a few drinks you decide you don't like these people, (justified or not), so decide to leave before desert and more booze. But you had a hand in ordering the desert and booze for yourself, and some of it you can even take home in a doggy bag. Should you be able to get away without paying your part of the bill? And if you had previously said you'd pay a part of someone else's dinner (because you earn more, and your mates, and that's the kind of thing mates do sometimes) should you not pay that?
The EU is not mates a dinner, it's a business agreement between dozens of countries with different needs and drives. We are (were) a partner in that business agreement. We had clout in the decisions made. We shaped policy. It is only right that we continue to pay our share of the policy we shaped.
Anyway we paid for 12% of the restaurant we're sitting in.
Under the treaties, all EU nations reserve a portion of their GDP to form part of the EU's own resources. The EU has to fund its budget, by law, from its own resources. The approved budgets approve spending, within the own resources, they do not approve funding. The funding decision is no linked in any way to the budget period so it is irrelevant what period the EU's budgets run from and until. If the EU makes commitments to spending that they cannot afford from within their own resources, they have to wait until the resources are available - nobody has ever agreed to fund these amount. When the UK leaves the UK's share of own resources falls away. There is no residual liability.0 -
Ken Clarke is a dyed-in-the-wool Tory.TheScreamingEagles said:
You can rely on Ken Clarke supporting the government.Casino_Royale said:
Then he is mistaken.TGOHF said:Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.
Take Soubry, for instance. She is a fervent and outspoken Tory Remainer, to be sure, but she hates Socialism.
She might vote with them tactically on amendments during committee and 3rd reading. But, if she smells those sort of games, she won't play. Same goes for Nicky Morgan.
I confess I am not so sure about Sarah Wollaston or Heidi Allen, both of whom I could see crossing the floor to the LDs.
He said a while back the first half of his political career was ensuring the likes of Corbyn were scorched from the face of the Earth and he wasn't going to put him in power.
Sure, he's not my kind of Tory, but he is a Tory nonetheless.
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Well - if it hasn't happened by say February we can chalk it down as an epic fail by Corbo.Casino_Royale said:
Then he is mistaken.TGOHF said:Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.
Take Soubry, for instance. She is a fervent and outspoken Tory Remainer, to be sure, but she hates Socialism.
She might vote with them tactically on amendments during committee and 3rd reading. But, if she smells those sort of games, she won't play. Same goes for Nicky Morgan.
I confess I am not so sure about Sarah Wollaston or Heidi Allen, both of whom I could see crossing the floor to the LDs.
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Well she has another grandchild in absentiaCasino_Royale said:
We have Diana tedium (again) at the moment.HYUFD said:Congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge on their news, so we will have a new royal baby next year which will provide some break in Brexit tedium
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She'd hold onto most of them. London would be a write-off. Corbyn would add a few SLABs at the expense of the SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon the Tories lose at least half a dozen seats in London alone but I reckon the fear of Corbyn as PM might offset those losses.Casino_Royale said:
I suspect if there was an election, now, it'd result in another hung parliament, with the Tories ahead on seats. By how many, I'm not sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Corbynistas would be motivated, but so would everyone else who opposed that and, this time, they'd realise the threat of him as PM was deadly serious.
But can Ruth Davidson hold onto those Tory gains (and maybe win a few more?) makes the election hard to call.
But, I'd expect the Tory base to turn out in full, and a campaign very heavy on the economy.
I also wouldn't expect May to be leader going into it, unless we're very unlucky, so the Tories on anything from 280-330 seats is possible.
I have no idea how the land will lie by GE2022, and neither does anyone else.0 -
Is this political opportunism or JC following though on his sincerely held beliefs?TGOHF said:Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.0 -
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Many of us agree with you about May. It is just your Osborne Bromance we have a problem with. Bear in mind May spent 6 years as Home Secretary alongside Osborne and Cameron and people like me were criticising her judgement and values long before you jumped on the bandwagon.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of us has been proven right about Mrs May, and it ain't you.Alanbrooke said:
TSE = Tediously Same EditorialsCarlottaVance said:
You've been saying that since the election......when WILL we see the Tory collapse? Around the same time as the surge to Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
new trading relationship from the outside < pre-existing trading relationship.Casino_Royale said:
A typical Brexiter has lost confidence in the EU, no longer wishes the UK to be a member pooling its powers with it, and wants to negotiate a new trading relationship from the outside.TOPPING said:
and who do you see as being the replacement to take Arsenal to "the next level"?Alanbrooke said:
He's nothingTOPPING said:
He's nothing if not strong and stable.Alanbrooke said:
except of course that you got there by refusing to change direction and stuck with a clapped out continental managerTOPPING said:
The analogy here is with Arsenal football club. Time was, not so long ago, when we strode the world as a top team. We reached the Champions League final, and weren't that far away a few more times, and at least got there to give it a go. Premiership titles? By the handful, and if we didn't win it we were pipped for it usually in the last week or two.YellowSubmarine said:#1 It's still very early days. #2 These sorts of negotiations are always a bit pantomime, It suits both sides to be Drama Queens for domestic consumption. #3 We're negotiating with an economy 9 times our size. A good degree of this isn't things going badly it just the economic fundamentals playing out now the political narratives of the referendum are facing and reality reasserts it's self. # able to craft last minute fudges which kick the can down the road. And we still have 18 months which s an eternity in politics. A deal can be done.
Though I increasingly go back to my Brexit Paradox. " Brexit can only happen in international circumstances which prevent it succeeding. "
And now? We seem to have given all that up. Top four is a huge aspiration and not guaranteed. We can dream of the Champions League and I fear for our performance in the Europa Cup. We have become if not a minnow, then a second, perhaps third tier player and our relationship to the world of football has deteriorated accordingly.
And THAT, my friends, is the correct analogy for the UK and Brexit.
(sorry Sam is not here to agree..)
time to go
Typical Brexiter - wants to destroy everything with no thought as to what might sensibly and practically replace it. We can all kick the dog when things elsewhere don't go well for us, but a long term strategic solution it is not.
Try starting from there.
Try starting from there.0 -
He is Larry David, without the sense of humour, and needs to learn to curb his enthusiasm.TGOHF said:
Well - if it hasn't happened by say February we can chalk it down as an epic fail by Corbo.Casino_Royale said:
Then he is mistaken.TGOHF said:Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.
Take Soubry, for instance. She is a fervent and outspoken Tory Remainer, to be sure, but she hates Socialism.
She might vote with them tactically on amendments during committee and 3rd reading. But, if she smells those sort of games, she won't play. Same goes for Nicky Morgan.
I confess I am not so sure about Sarah Wollaston or Heidi Allen, both of whom I could see crossing the floor to the LDs.0 -
For anyone interested you can ask Peter Altmaier a question live from 17.00 UK time tonight
https://www.welt.de/politik/bundestagswahl/interviews/article167938561/Stellen-Sie-Peter-Altmaier-Ihre-Fragen-ab-18-Uhr-hier-live.html
Why did you eat all the pies could be a good starter
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Confirmation public sector pay rise on the cards https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/9046580741238579210
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Oops - 'I didn't mean what I said' explanation!williamglenn said:
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Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Even you aren't so stupid as to believe she will fight the next GE as leader. i know the poll has upset you but seriously....TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
A better analogy is that you go to the restaurant. One friend suggests that the table has smoked salmon and caviar but you don't think that's a good idea. To shut them up you promise that you will all come to the restaurant next week and then you will definitely order it.148grss said:I don't understand why so many people are upset about the "Brexit Bill". As far as I'm aware all the EU is asking for is money we had previously said we would pay, as part of our role as a member state. We have spent the last few years exerting our political pressure, with our directly and indirectly elected members, to sway how money gets spent. During that time we assured we would pay our part. There is nothing punitive about paying for things we shaped and agreed to.
Imagine going to a restaurant with 27 friends, ordering shared starters, shared mains, shared deserts and bottles of wine. You said you'd share a plate of X but only if it had no mayo, a plate of Y, but with added kale, etc. etc. After the first two courses and a few drinks you decide you don't like these people, (justified or not), so decide to leave before desert and more booze. But you had a hand in ordering the desert and booze for yourself, and some of it you can even take home in a doggy bag. Should you be able to get away without paying your part of the bill? And if you had previously said you'd pay a part of someone else's dinner (because you earn more, and your mates, and that's the kind of thing mates do sometimes) should you not pay that?
The EU is not mates a dinner, it's a business agreement between dozens of countries with different needs and drives. We are (were) a partner in that business agreement. We had clout in the decisions made. We shaped policy. It is only right that we continue to pay our share of the policy we shaped.
At the end of the evening you say that you are not coming next week and propose to pay your share of tonight's bill. Your friends protest that you promised to contribute towards the cost of the feast next week as well.0 -
Yes, I know. But that's not what you said. You preferred to chuck around hyperbole and cliched caricatures.TOPPING said:
new trading relationship from the outside < pre-existing trading relationship.Casino_Royale said:
A typical Brexiter has lost confidence in the EU, no longer wishes the UK to be a member pooling its powers with it, and wants to negotiate a new trading relationship from the outside.TOPPING said:
and who do you see as being the replacement to take Arsenal to "the next level"?Alanbrooke said:
He's nothingTOPPING said:
He's nothing if not strong and stable.Alanbrooke said:
except of course that you got there by refusing to change direction and stuck with a clapped out continental managerTOPPING said:YellowSubmarine said:#1 It's still very early days. #2 These sorts of negotiations are always a bit pantomime, It suits both sides to be Drama Queens for domestic consumption. #3 We're negotiating with an economy 9 times our size. A good degree of this isn't things going badly it just the economic fundamentals playing out now the political narratives of the referendum are facing and reality reasserts it's self. # able to craft last minute fudges which kick the can down the road. And we still have 18 months which s an eternity in politics. A deal can be done.
Though I increasingly go back to my Brexit Paradox. " Brexit can only happen in international circumstances which prevent it succeeding. "
(sorry Sam is not here to agree..)
time to go
not.
Try starting from there.
Try starting from there.
Most Leavers rate the politics as more important. Most Remainers rate the economics as more important. The EU is very much about both. That's why the country split.
We've been here dozens of times. Which is, of course, one of the reasons why I post relatively rarely these days.0 -
What better way to restore confidence in the EU than to experience its collective bargaining power first hand?Casino_Royale said:A typical Brexiter has lost confidence in the EU...
0 -
I've nearly finished a piece on how Mrs May fights the next election, it will be published on Thursday this week.felix said:
Even you aren't so stupid as to believe she will fight the next GE as leader. i know the poll has upset you but seriously....TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
There's a couple of plausible scenarios I've found on she manages it.0 -
O/T,
Sounds uncannily like our own MD!!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/04/day-476-adthe-final-blow-struck-roman-empire-ends-west/0 -
I suspect fear of a Corbyn government would help the Conservatives both in the banker belt of West London and in the middle class Jewish areas of North London.TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon the Tories lose at least half a dozen seats in London alone but I reckon the fear of Corbyn as PM might offset those losses.Casino_Royale said:
I suspect if there was an election, now, it'd result in another hung parliament, with the Tories ahead on seats. By how many, I'm not sure.TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Corbynistas would be motivated, but so would everyone else who opposed that and, this time, they'd realise the threat of him as PM was deadly serious.
But can Ruth Davidson hold onto those Tory gains (and maybe win a few more?) makes the election hard to call.
A protest vote or non-vote was easy when the talk was whether it would be a Conservative majority or a Conservative landslide. But things would likely be different at the next election.
Though the Conservatives would need new ideas on student debt and housing if they are to regain ground in London or any other areas with lots of young graduates.0 -
We've been here dozens of times but guess what? It's the only show in town.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I know. But that's not what you said. You preferred to chuck around hyperbole and cliched caricatures.TOPPING said:
new trading relationship from the outside < pre-existing trading relationship.Casino_Royale said:
A typical Brexiter has lost confidence in the EU, no longer wishes the UK to be a member pooling its powers with it, and wants to negotiate a new trading relationship from the outside.TOPPING said:
and who do you see as being the replacement to take Arsenal to "the next level"?Alanbrooke said:
He's nothingTOPPING said:
He's nothing if not strong and stable.Alanbrooke said:
except of course that you got there by refusing to change direction and stuck with a clapped out continental managerTOPPING said:YellowSubmarine said:#1 It's still very early days. #2 These sorts of negotiations are always a bit pantomime, It suits both sides to be Drama Queens for domestic consumption. #3 We're negotiating with an economy 9 times our size. A good degree of this isn't things going badly it just the economic fundamentals playing out now the political narratives of the referendum are facing and reality reasserts it's self. # able to craft last minute fudges which kick the can down the road. And we still have 18 months which s an eternity in politics. A deal can be done.
Though I increasingly go back to my Brexit Paradox. " Brexit can only happen in international circumstances which prevent it succeeding. "
(sorry Sam is not here to agree..)
time to go
not.
Try starting from there.
Try starting from there.
Most Leavers rate the politics as more important. Most Remainers rate the economics as more important. The EU is very much about both. That's why the country split.
We've been here dozens of times. Which is, of course, one of the reasons why I post relatively rarely these days.
And you have absolutely no idea what "most Leavers" rate as more important. You say politics because it suts your conscience.
I thought polls (ha!) said that immigration was the biggest factor. Would you be happy for me to say that most leavers are anti-immigrant?0 -
-
If I may generalise further, most Brits think the two are separable. That's why we ended up in a position of being given a false choice in a referendum.Casino_Royale said:Most Leavers rate the politics as more important. Most Remainers rate the economics as more important. The EU is very much about both. That's why the country split.
0 -
That's not what I said - it was "increas[ing] public spending while promising not to" - Brown had a core belief that more money was a solution but didn't want to make the case that it was worth paying forDecrepitJohnL said:
I doubt simply increasing public spending was the aim but would agree that benefits are often just a subsidy to bad employers and landlords.Charles said:
I think they allow employers to suppress wages by relying on the state, and in combination with free immigration, skimping on capital investment and training because they don't need to improve labour productivity. When you factor in the housing benefit element it helps drive up housing costs for everyone.DavidL said:
In work benefits are an alternative to mass unemployment as they allow those who could not earn an economic wage which would allow them to maintain themselves and their dependents to work. The difference between the virtual full employment we have now and the mass unemployment of the 80s is stark and very much to the credit of the government.Charles said:
Yes, but it needs to be done. Brown has a huge amount to answer for. Osborne did some but, with hindsight, not enough. I think in work benefits are a huge part of the problem
Of course, there is an argument that they positively encourage low wages and subsidise employers taking a loan but these issues are capable of being addressed in a market where the supply of labour is less elastic than it has been with free movement. Once labour becomes less elastic competition for it should increase the price.
My concern about in wage benefits is not so much the concept but the price. How much of a good thing can we actually afford?
It was an ill thought through attempt to plaster over a problem (and to increase public spending while pretending not to) rather than solve the fundamental issues.
As always, it's the sleight of hand that causes real problems by concealing the underlying situation. Witness the problems that inappropriate use of PFI has caused for the NHS.0 -
Also O Flynn is UKIP, so has a vested interest in pressurising Tory Remainer to tow the party line.philiph said:
Is this political opportunism or JC following though on his sincerely held beliefs?TGOHF said:Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.
In other words, I think he is lying0 -
I didn't think either of those... but was amused by Mia Tindall's spectacular tantrum at Burleigh.Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important
What does that make me?0 -
Completely wrong.TOPPING said:
Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yesterday's Survation poll of the public as to who they wanted to succeed May had Boris first on 19% and JRM second on 9% ahead of non OEs Hammond, Davis, Rudd and Gove. Tory voters were even more favourable to Boris and the Mogg.
Tough luck!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html0 -
Well, quite. Leaving her at the HO for 6 years strikes me as an implied misrepresentation, by the man with the power to remove her, that she had the level of competence needed to run a whelk stall. She is his fault and his legacy.Richard_Tyndall said:
Many of us agree with you about May. It is just your Osborne Bromance we have a problem with. Bear in mind May spent 6 years as Home Secretary alongside Osborne and Cameron and people like me were criticising her judgement and values long before you jumped on the bandwagon.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of us has been proven right about Mrs May, and it ain't you.Alanbrooke said:
TSE = Tediously Same EditorialsCarlottaVance said:
You've been saying that since the election......when WILL we see the Tory collapse? Around the same time as the surge to Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I think the bottom line must be that JC will seek any means to get a GE and himself into power. It is not putting "country second" because the whole point of this politics lark is to govern the country according to your beliefs because you think that is best for the country. There's no way in a million years he should vote with the government on anything (even though we know he is a Brexiter at heart).
As for Cons rebels, most of the EU-phile Cons MPs are decidedly loyal and, though they may cross swords with the whips, would join a new party before voting against the govt.0 -
upper class Charles, but we'll forgive you :-)Charles said:
I didn't think either of those... but was amused by Mia Tindall's spectacular tantrum at Burleigh.Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important
What does that make me?0 -
Alanbrooke said:
TSE = Tediously Same EditorialsCarlottaVance said:
You've been saying that since the election......when WILL we see the Tory collapse? Around the same time as the surge to Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
TSE = Tediously Same Editorials Self-Regarding Emesis0 -
It was an entirely natural reaction. It is the closest thing to hand to vent your frustration with. What does it make you? A non-equestrian, perhaps?Charles said:
I didn't think either of those... but was amused by Mia Tindall's spectacular tantrum at Burleigh.Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important
What does that make me?0 -
Old moneyCharles said:
I didn't think either of those... but was amused by Mia Tindall's spectacular tantrum at Burleigh.Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important
What does that make me?0 -
If you really think that the Cons are going to put an out and out posho back at the head of their party and that, in the current worldwide mood, that is going to secure them anything other than a spell as HMO, then you have been smoking crack cocaine.HYUFD said:
Completely wrong.TOPPING said:
Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yesterday's Survation poll of the public as to who they wanted to succeed May had Boris first on 19% and JRM second on 9% ahead of non OEs Hammond, Davis, Rudd and Gove. Tory voters were even more favourable to Boris and the Mogg.
Tough luck!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html0 -
Cui bono?TGOHF said:Here's one to track.
Patrick O'FlynnVerified account @oflynnmep 38m
Just had briefing from impeccable Labour source. Corbyn sees big chance as allying with Tory Remainers to bring down Govt in next 6 months.
That sounds like Kate Hoey telling her mate something (possibly at the behest of a Tory whip) to try and reduce the risk that Tory remainers rebel.0 -
As a leftie with a chip on his shoulder you may not like Old Etonians (except the late Tam Dalyell) but who was the last Tory leader to win a majority? An OE and as that Survation poll shows most voters could not care less if you went to EtonTOPPING said:
If you really think that the Cons are going to put an out and out posho back at the head of their party and that, in the current worldwide mood, that is going to secure them anything other than a spell as HMO, then you have been smoking crack cocaine.HYUFD said:
Completely wrong.TOPPING said:
Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yesterday's Survation poll of the public as to who they wanted to succeed May had Boris first on 19% and JRM second on 9% ahead of non OEs Hammond, Davis, Rudd and Gove. Tory voters were even more favourable to Boris and the Mogg.
Tough luck!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html
These 2 Brexit backing OEs are also rather more in tune with the 17 million who voted Leave than you0 -
Being in trade rules that out...Alanbrooke said:
upper class Charles, but we'll forgive you :-)Charles said:
I didn't think either of those... but was amused by Mia Tindall's spectacular tantrum at Burleigh.Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important
What does that make me?0 -
"A leftie [or even lefty] with a chip on my shoulder?"HYUFD said:
As a leftie with a cheap on his shoulder you may not like Old Etonians (except the late Tam Dalyell) but who was the last Tory leader to win a majority? An OE and as that Survation poll shows most voters could not care less if you went to EtonTOPPING said:
If you really think that the Cons are going to put an out and out posho back at the head of their party and that, in the current worldwide mood, that is going to secure them anything other than a spell as HMO, then you have been smoking crack cocaine.HYUFD said:
Completely wrong.TOPPING said:
Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yesterday's Survation poll of the public as to who they wanted to succeed May had Boris first on 19% and JRM second on 9% ahead of non OEs Hammond, Davis, Rudd and Gove. Tory voters were even more favourable to Boris and the Mogg.
Tough luck!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html
blimmin' heck.0 -
From my reading of Equity Release, you get up to 25% of the present value of the property. The company then retains ownership until the death of the householder when they are able to resell it hopefully for a profit as house prices should have risen. The householder can buyback the loan, but with the rate of interest (Apr) being so high, within a period of time, the repayment is higher than the property value. The other catch, should you require care, the value of the property is take into account, which, if there is any money left, cannot be released until death which means, if you are unlucky, your last years will not be comfortable....eek said:
It's great how the market finds profitable solutions for problems created by the market. When this all comes crumbling down (and I suspect its sooner rather than later when looking in the tea leaves) its really going to come crumbling down....OldKingCole said:
True, but that doesn’t allow for the fact that in the meantime those children, and especially their adult grandchildren, cannot afford homes. That’s why Equity Release is becoming so popular.HYUFD said:
'60% of the country are still homeowners and have a house price for their homes far higher than your parents had, thanks to Osborne's IHT tax cut that value will also pass down in large part to their children'0 -
I don't think I've ever seen a cheap [sic] leftie!TOPPING said:
"A leftie [or even lefty] with a chip on my shoulder?"HYUFD said:
As a leftie with a cheap on his shoulder you may not like Old Etonians (except the late Tam Dalyell) but who was the last Tory leader to win a majority? An OE and as that Survation poll shows most voters could not care less if you went to EtonTOPPING said:
If you really think that the Cons are going to put an out and out posho back at the head of their party and that, in the current worldwide mood, that is going to secure them anything other than a spell as HMO, then you have been smoking crack cocaine.HYUFD said:
Completely wrong.TOPPING said:
Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yesterday's Survation poll of the public as to who they wanted to succeed May had Boris first on 19% and JRM second on 9% ahead of non OEs Hammond, Davis, Rudd and Gove. Tory voters were even more favourable to Boris and the Mogg.
Tough luck!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html
blimmin' heck.0 -
But, in being offered the package as a whole, Brits still chose to leave it.williamglenn said:
If I may generalise further, most Brits think the two are separable. That's why we ended up in a position of being given a false choice in a referendum.Casino_Royale said:Most Leavers rate the politics as more important. Most Remainers rate the economics as more important. The EU is very much about both. That's why the country split.
If we'd had the option of a close economic trading relationship on the table as a "risk-free" alternative, say a CETA+ with very little of the politics, Leave would have walked it 3:1.0 -
Err... Ok.williamglenn said:
What better way to restore confidence in the EU than to experience its collective bargaining power first hand?Casino_Royale said:A typical Brexiter has lost confidence in the EU...
0 -
I am not convinced that it makes much difference. Most potential PMs are Oxford educated multimillionaires these days, and that makes them all out and out posho in most peoples eyes. It's only the Bullingdon club which thinks Georgie was an oik because he went to St Pauls.TOPPING said:
If you really think that the Cons are going to put an out and out posho back at the head of their party and that, in the current worldwide mood, that is going to secure them anything other than a spell as HMO, then you have been smoking crack cocaine.HYUFD said:
Completely wrong.TOPPING said:
Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yesterday's Survation poll of the public as to who they wanted to succeed May had Boris first on 19% and JRM second on 9% ahead of non OEs Hammond, Davis, Rudd and Gove. Tory voters were even more favourable to Boris and the Mogg.
Tough luck!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html0 -
I think a narrative can be created which will be bad for the Cons with a super-posho. I mean of course you are right about politicos but it is just climbing through the ropes with one hand tied behind your back.Ishmael_Z said:
I am not convinced that it makes much difference. Most potential PMs are Oxford educated multimillionaires these days, and that makes them all out and out posho in most peoples eyes. It's only the Bullingdon club which thinks Georgie was an oik because he went to St Pauls.TOPPING said:
If you really think that the Cons are going to put an out and out posho back at the head of their party and that, in the current worldwide mood, that is going to secure them anything other than a spell as HMO, then you have been smoking crack cocaine.HYUFD said:
Completely wrong.TOPPING said:
Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yesterday's Survation poll of the public as to who they wanted to succeed May had Boris first on 19% and JRM second on 9% ahead of non OEs Hammond, Davis, Rudd and Gove. Tory voters were even more favourable to Boris and the Mogg.
Tough luck!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
Old money can spell Burghley.HYUFD said:
Old moneyCharles said:
I didn't think either of those... but was amused by Mia Tindall's spectacular tantrum at Burleigh.Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important
What does that make me?
What a result btw - GB 1,2,3 and 4.0 -
The last 4 general elections won with overall majorities were won by public school educated leaders, all of them against state school educated opponents. Corbyn of course went to prep school followed by grammar school so is hardly a pleb himself!TOPPING said:
I think a narrative can be created which will be bad for the Cons with a super-posho. I mean of course you are right about politicos but it is just climbing through the ropes with one hand tied behind your back.Ishmael_Z said:
I am not convinced that it makes much difference. Most potential PMs are Oxford educated multimillionaires these days, and that makes them all out and out posho in most peoples eyes. It's only the Bullingdon club which thinks Georgie was an oik because he went to St Pauls.TOPPING said:
If you really think that the Cons are going to put an out and out posho back at the head of their party and that, in the current worldwide mood, that is going to secure them anything other than a spell as HMO, then you have been smoking crack cocaine.HYUFD said:
Completely wrong.TOPPING said:
Put another OE into leader of the Cons vs Jezza and Macca and the Cons will be massacred. The narrative writes itself.HYUFD said:
Except it will likely be Boris or JRM leading the Tories at the next general election as today's conhome and yesterday's Survation polls confirmTheScreamingEagles said:
But given how crap Mrs May is during an election campaign the Tories trailing now means things can only get better for Labour.HYUFD said:
Almost nothing in itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yesterday's Survation poll of the public as to who they wanted to succeed May had Boris first on 19% and JRM second on 9% ahead of non OEs Hammond, Davis, Rudd and Gove. Tory voters were even more favourable to Boris and the Mogg.
Tough luck!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html0 -
was excellent - I have to say Tina Cook's first x-country round was sublime.Ishmael_Z said:
Old money can spell Burghley.HYUFD said:
Old moneyCharles said:
I didn't think either of those... but was amused by Mia Tindall's spectacular tantrum at Burleigh.Alanbrooke said:
just pure bollockswilliamglenn said:
the UK thinks
oooh lovely baby - middle classes
will colleen stay ? - working classes
only sad anoraks think polls are important
What does that make me?
What a result btw - GB 1,2,3 and 4.0
