politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly five months to go: The EU elections that could mak

150-1 on the Lib Dems ?

Should be 15,000,000-1 !

TGOHF said:

Turnout in 2009 was 34% - higher or lower this time ?

Higher, it was 37.6% in 2004.

So something close to that.

IMO 2009 turnout was depressed by the expenses scandal, and Labour supporters couldn't be arsed to vote especially when it comes to 1) The Euros and 2) Having Gordon as your leader.

That lower turnout is what helped the BNP win seats.

It could be said, the Euros could make or break few other parties

Does Ed really want to join Neil Kinnock as the only Leader of the Opposition not to win a Euros held in a non election year.

Clegg and the Lib Dems could finish fifth behind the Greens, what's that going to do party morale and Clegg's Leadership?

And Dave, the Tory party will be fevered if UKIP outpoll them, and Dave will be under pressure to give some red meat to win back the Kippers.

If he doesn't, some in the party, may want the party to revert back Papua New Guinea-style orgies of cannibalism and chief-killing.

Most typos in one OGH piece on record - sack the sub-editor! Nigel Fatage... like that actually.

sorry but the late night cricket has me in a heck of a funk - nailed on double defeat on sunday = england/spurs double.

TheScreamingEagles and others: I don't think the Lib Dems will be wiped out in the Euros next year as some are thinking. They are owning the mantle of being pro-Europe ("The party of in") which is a clear and catchy message that is proving easy to get across. Sure, there's a lot of people who strongly oppose it, but when 15% will be seen as a decent result, given the polls showing the stark splits on Europe, having one side to yourself is a useful place to be.

I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles and others: I don't think the Lib Dems will be wiped out in the Euros next year as some are thinking. They are owning the mantle of being pro-Europe ("The party of in") which is a clear and catchy message that is proving easy to get across. Sure, there's a lot of people who strongly oppose it, but when 15% will be seen as a decent result, given the polls showing the stark splits on Europe, having one side to yourself is a useful place to be.

I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.

I do wonder if the Lib Dems will also get a boost from Dave dumping his Pro Green credentials.

I only said they may finish fifth, based on the Mori poll showing the Greens one point behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.

think the big 3 should be 2/1 each so value lies with the blues imo

anothernick said:

taffys said:

I don;t see why the labour vote would turn out in 2014. The labour policy is 'more of the same' and people tend not to bother to vote for that.

The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong. Turnout in areas where there are local elections will be much higher than in areas where there are Euros only and this will push up the Labour vote share.

"I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"

Easterross said:

Pulpstar said:

Crikey, look at this CV:

http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2013/03/Julian_Knight_selected_for_Solihull.aspx

Independent, BBC. But he is going for the Conservatives, NOT the Lib Dems in Solihull ^^;

Does this make it look more likely that Lorely will be going for a Burton then?

Solihull is CON gain nailed on next GE.

taffys said:

I don;t see why the labour vote would turn out in 2014. The labour policy is 'more of the same' and people tend not to bother to vote for that.

Local elections produce a significantly bigger turnout that standalone Euros. Unlike in 2009, there'll be simultaneous local elections in all the big English metro areas, including London. By contrast, last time, the local elections were in the county council areas and it was the one in four years when there were *not* metro-district elections. That should give Labour a substantial boost.

''The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong.''

Inner London is an interesting one. We read that you can't buy a garden shed for less than a quarter of a million, even in the poorest boroughs of the city, and yet labour claims to remain 'strong' here.

Something somewhere doesn't add up.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

anothernick said:

taffys said:

I don;t see why the labour vote would turn out in 2014. The labour policy is 'more of the same' and people tend not to bother to vote for that.

The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong. Turnout in areas where there are local elections will be much higher than in areas where there are Euros only and this will push up the Labour vote share.

"I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"

See the list - these are overwhelmingly Labour areas. On past form turnout in these areas will be perhaps 30-50% above turnout in areas which don't have local elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles and others: I don't think the Lib Dems will be wiped out in the Euros next year as some are thinking. They are owning the mantle of being pro-Europe ("The party of in") which is a clear and catchy message that is proving easy to get across. Sure, there's a lot of people who strongly oppose it, but when 15% will be seen as a decent result, given the polls showing the stark splits on Europe, having one side to yourself is a useful place to be.

I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.

I do wonder if the Lib Dems will also get a boost from Dave dumping his Pro Green credentials.

I only said they may finish fifth, based on the Mori poll showing the Greens one point behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.

You might be on to something there - again it's about the Lib Dems being given full ownership of an issue with plenty of supporters. However I'm concerned (both in policy and electoral terms) about whether the Lib Dems will give way on levies etc. - if so we'll take the blame and feel little is more important at the moment than fighting this off, in accordance with Coalition agreement. Personally, I looked hard at the Tories when DC became leader thanks to issues like these; I made my choice and am now a LD councillor, but if I'd stayed on the fence I wouldn't give the Tories a second thought now.

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles and others: I don't think the Lib Dems will be wiped out in the Euros next year as some are thinking. They are owning the mantle of being pro-Europe ("The party of in") which is a clear and catchy message that is proving easy to get across. Sure, there's a lot of people who strongly oppose it, but when 15% will be seen as a decent result, given the polls showing the stark splits on Europe, having one side to yourself is a useful place to be.

I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.

I do wonder if the Lib Dems will also get a boost from Dave dumping his Pro Green credentials.

I only said they may finish fifth, based on the Mori poll showing the Greens one point behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.

You might be on to something there - again it's about the Lib Dems being given full ownership of an issue with plenty of supporters. However I'm concerned (both in policy and electoral terms) about whether the Lib Dems will give way on levies etc. - if so we'll take the blame and feel little is more important at the moment than fighting this off, in accordance with Coalition agreement. Personally, I looked hard at the Tories when DC became leader thanks to issues like these; I made my choice and am now a LD councillor, but if I'd stayed on the fence I wouldn't give the Tories a second thought now.

Right on!!... keep campaigning for those higher fuel bills..

anothernick said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

anothernick said:

taffys said:

I don;t see why the labour vote would turn out in 2014. The labour policy is 'more of the same' and people tend not to bother to vote for that.

The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong. Turnout in areas where there are local elections will be much higher than in areas where there are Euros only and this will push up the Labour vote share.

"I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"

See the list - these are overwhelmingly Labour areas. On past form turnout in these areas will be perhaps 30-50% above turnout in areas which don't have local elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2014

Like I said, I will love it!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Very tempted to vote UKIP just to help them edge the Tories into second or very possibly third place

I thought you had a job now - so you should be voting Tory again...

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles and others: I don't think the Lib Dems will be wiped out in the Euros next year as some are thinking. They are owning the mantle of being pro-Europe ("The party of in") which is a clear and catchy message that is proving easy to get across. Sure, there's a lot of people who strongly oppose it, but when 15% will be seen as a decent result, given the polls showing the stark splits on Europe, having one side to yourself is a useful place to be.

I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.

I do wonder if the Lib Dems will also get a boost from Dave dumping his Pro Green credentials.

I only said they may finish fifth, based on the Mori poll showing the Greens one point behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.

You might be on to something there - again it's about the Lib Dems being given full ownership of an issue with plenty of supporters. However I'm concerned (both in policy and electoral terms) about whether the Lib Dems will give way on levies etc. - if so we'll take the blame and feel little is more important at the moment than fighting this off, in accordance with Coalition agreement. Personally, I looked hard at the Tories when DC became leader thanks to issues like these; I made my choice and am now a LD councillor, but if I'd stayed on the fence I wouldn't give the Tories a second thought now.

How would you feel / do you think people would respond if the compromise was that alluded to by Clegg - that the subsidies are taken off peoples bills, but are retained and paid for from general taxation? Personally my issue with this solution is that to be transparent and believable, you have to say what you are cutting that wouldn't have been cut otherwise, or what tax rise you are implementing that wouldn't have happened otherwise - and that is a hostage to fortune from papers / anti's complaining that the new method is worse than the old...

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles and others: I don't think the Lib Dems will be wiped out in the Euros next year as some are thinking. They are owning the mantle of being pro-Europe ("The party of in") which is a clear and catchy message that is proving easy to get across. Sure, there's a lot of people who strongly oppose it, but when 15% will be seen as a decent result, given the polls showing the stark splits on Europe, having one side to yourself is a useful place to be.

I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.

I do wonder if the Lib Dems will also get a boost from Dave dumping his Pro Green credentials.

I only said they may finish fifth, based on the Mori poll showing the Greens one point behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.

You might be on to something there - again it's about the Lib Dems being given full ownership of an issue with plenty of supporters. However I'm concerned (both in policy and electoral terms) about whether the Lib Dems will give way on levies etc. - if so we'll take the blame and feel little is more important at the moment than fighting this off, in accordance with Coalition agreement. Personally, I looked hard at the Tories when DC became leader thanks to issues like these; I made my choice and am now a LD councillor, but if I'd stayed on the fence I wouldn't give the Tories a second thought now.

There's another area that the Lib Dems could emphasise.

Trident replacement.

IIRC Labour are still in favour, so there's a party out there, if you're Pro-Green, Pro-Europe and Anti-Nuclear Weapons

What if you're Pro-Nuclear Magnetic Resonance?

Slackbladder said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles and others: I don't think the Lib Dems will be wiped out in the Euros next year as some are thinking. They are owning the mantle of being pro-Europe ("The party of in") which is a clear and catchy message that is proving easy to get across. Sure, there's a lot of people who strongly oppose it, but when 15% will be seen as a decent result, given the polls showing the stark splits on Europe, having one side to yourself is a useful place to be.

I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.

I do wonder if the Lib Dems will also get a boost from Dave dumping his Pro Green credentials.

I only said they may finish fifth, based on the Mori poll showing the Greens one point behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.

You might be on to something there - again it's about the Lib Dems being given full ownership of an issue with plenty of supporters. However I'm concerned (both in policy and electoral terms) about whether the Lib Dems will give way on levies etc. - if so we'll take the blame and feel little is more important at the moment than fighting this off, in accordance with Coalition agreement. Personally, I looked hard at the Tories when DC became leader thanks to issues like these; I made my choice and am now a LD councillor, but if I'd stayed on the fence I wouldn't give the Tories a second thought now.

Right on!!... keep campaigning for those higher fuel bills..

Shush!

I'm offering the Lib Dems some very good advice, don't ruin it.

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles and others: I don't think the Lib Dems will be wiped out in the Euros next year as some are thinking. They are owning the mantle of being pro-Europe ("The party of in") which is a clear and catchy message that is proving easy to get across. Sure, there's a lot of people who strongly oppose it, but when 15% will be seen as a decent result, given the polls showing the stark splits on Europe, having one side to yourself is a useful place to be.

I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.

I do wonder if the Lib Dems will also get a boost from Dave dumping his Pro Green credentials.

I only said they may finish fifth, based on the Mori poll showing the Greens one point behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.

You might be on to something there - again it's about the Lib Dems being given full ownership of an issue with plenty of supporters. However I'm concerned (both in policy and electoral terms) about whether the Lib Dems will give way on levies etc. - if so we'll take the blame and feel little is more important at the moment than fighting this off, in accordance with Coalition agreement. Personally, I looked hard at the Tories when DC became leader thanks to issues like these; I made my choice and am now a LD councillor, but if I'd stayed on the fence I wouldn't give the Tories a second thought now.

If the Tories had more than one brain cell they would have used the coalition to embrace people like you with open arms and recreate the truly national force that they once were. As a Labour supporter I'm glad they didn't, but I still can't quite believe that they have bungled such a golden opportunity.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Next said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Very tempted to vote UKIP just to help them edge the Tories into second or very possibly third place

I thought you had a job now - so you should be voting Tory again...

But to see the look on Dave's face the morning after...

But what will your mother say?

IIRC, you said she was even less keen on UKIP than the Tories.

I would make a pact with the Devil Farage to defeat Cameron.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Next said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Very tempted to vote UKIP just to help them edge the Tories into second or very possibly third place

I thought you had a job now - so you should be voting Tory again...

But to see the look on Dave's face the morning after...

But what will your mother say?

IIRC, you said she was even less keen on UKIP than the Tories.

I would make a pact with the Devil Farage to defeat Cameron.

If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil/Pulpstar

You should vote for me.

As the Country's First Directly Elected Dictator I would largely implement those policies.

Will you reorganise the United Kingdom into the First Galactic Empire? For a safe and secure society?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil/Pulpstar

You should vote for me.

As the Country's First Directly Elected Dictator I would largely implement those policies.

Will you reorganise the United Kingdom into the First Galactic Empire? For a safe and secure society?

Yes, and I'd make The Queen the Empress of India and America.

One of my policies is for us to take control of all the countries that used to be part of the British Empire.

All my plans would be funded by taxing all the countries we've ever been at war with, 15% of their GDP as a tribute.

isam said:

taffys said:

''The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong.''

Inner London is an interesting one. We read that you can't buy a garden shed for less than a quarter of a million, even in the poorest boroughs of the city, and yet labour claims to remain 'strong' here.

Something somewhere doesn't add up.

You can rent a garden shed in East London for about £400 a month... and in Jan Feb I predict plenty of new tenants

Labour strength in London is largely due to the high proportion of ethnic minority voters, the "metropolitan liberal" view of many people, even those high up the income scale, and also the to the collapse of Tpry organisation at the local level in many areas. I live in a constituency that had a Tory MP and 20 Tory councillors before 1992. Now there are no Tory elected representatives at all at any level. The party barely exists on the ground. This pattern is reflected in many areas of London.

anothernick said:

isam said:

taffys said:

''The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong.''

Inner London is an interesting one. We read that you can't buy a garden shed for less than a quarter of a million, even in the poorest boroughs of the city, and yet labour claims to remain 'strong' here.

Something somewhere doesn't add up.

You can rent a garden shed in East London for about £400 a month... and in Jan Feb I predict plenty of new tenants

Labour strength in London is largely due to the high proportion of ethnic minority voters, the "metropolitan liberal" view of many people, even those high up the income scale, and also the to the collapse of Tpry organisation at the local level in many areas. I live in a constituency that had a Tory MP and 20 Tory councillors before 1992. Now there are no Tory elected representatives at all at any level. The party barely exists on the ground. This pattern is reflected in many areas of London.

Politically, London is really a collection of towns and villages. There are areas of great strength and weakness for all three parties.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I still think there's a possibility Vince Cable will deploy his nuclear weapon in 2014

I think he's forgotten the launch codes.

''Politically, London is really a collection of towns and villages. There are areas of great strength and weakness for all three parties. ''

I'm sure you're right, but I wonder if the stuff we read about soaring property values, the 'bedroom tax' and councils housing people outside their boroughs is changing the demographics at all.

There have been plenty of warnings that all of the above would do just that...'ethinc cleansing' and the like.

SeanT

Fatherland was a well known political thriller set in a world where Hitler had won WW2. Maybe you could do a future thriller in a world where the EUSSR was running and ruining the EU from Brussels and a plucky Brit hero leads the resistance movement...chuck in a bit of Chinese superpowerplay / the USA is bankrupt, a couple of superhot Kazakh hookers who are not what they seem, a HUGE evil secret that lies behind EU party chairman comrade Dubois' rise to power and the emergence of brainwave mapping & mind control - what's not to like?

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I still think there's a possibility Vince Cable will deploy his nuclear weapon in 2014

I think he's forgotten the launch codes.

Finishing fifth behind the Greens in a UK wide election might help focus the minds and cause Vince to remember

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

@TSE - All my plans would be funded by taxing all the countries we've ever been at war with, 15% of their GDP as a tribute.

Given our history, couldn’t you make an exception and up France’s share of tribute the 30% ?

No, because, one of my policies is to make the French honour the Treaty of Troyes, so the Queen becomes the Queen of France.

And we'll be able to take 100% of their GDP.

You just won my vote - where do I sign up..?

SeanT

Perhaps you could write a psychological thriller about a lonely Liverpudlian who spams a political blog with thousands of posts from his one-room bedsit. The drama starts when he realises the shadowy figures paying him a penny-a-post are actually the political enemies he is smearing.

As the story develops, he realises he is part of a grand conspiracy including toffs, the MMR jab, immigrants, the EU and housing. His foil is a z-list ad director who advises women to work as hairdressers.

It ends with a man defusing a nuclear bomb by crying at a funeral.

A minor character is a mad engineer who sits huddled in a corner whilst wittering to himself about high-speed rail ...

Slackbladder - it's a myth that green policies are the core driver of energy rises. Energy price inflation is running at 8% and if you want to tackle fuel bills you need to tackle that; increasing supply is the obvious route, although I like the aspect of Labour's plans to restore the exchange / pool for energy (basically ringfencing supply / retail in energy market, similar to Govt plans for banks.)

Lennon - I could probably live with transferring to taxation as long as amounts for green generation were maintained or ideally increased (that would be my price) However what we have is fairer as there's an incentive to use less energy when green levies come from energy bills, and moving to general taxation removes that. Particularly true for corporates if it's a switch to income tax. I wouldn't consider any reduction in levies acceptable.

TSE: Do you have a vacancy for a vice-dictator? (Although I think "Dictactor of Vice" sounds better.) On nuclear weapons, the LD policy is daft and we'll deservedly be attacked on it from right and left at the election. The part-time deterrent is a compromise I can't see working politically or in practice. I'm pro-nuclear energy as it's the most practical way to secure supply and get carbon emissions down.

anothernick: I think the truth is that there's a lot of Tories who didn't like Cameron but shut up as they thought he might get them elected. Once in power they felt they had authority to start whinging and heaving their weight around as if they were the issues they got elected for. So any embrace for the likes of us would only work in opposition.

Life_ina_market_town said:

generate prejudicial news coverage against they two people they have in custody.

out on bail......

tpfkar said:

However what we have is fairer as there's an incentive to use less energy when green levies come from energy bills, and moving to general taxation removes that.

Well yes this would be the grown up way to go about reducing energy usage but since cost of living is now the political battle you'll struggle to make that argument.

Ha ha, nicely done @JosiasJessop!

FPT.
Why do you not put up all the university voting Scott, all 3 in the last few weeks have been landslides for yes. Of course they are just a bit older and wiser and realise the truth. It is real fun seeing the dopey unionists relying on the odd vote of 16 year olds to justify their position whilst ignoring getting slaughtered at every cut and turn.

Who is interested in a boring story about a banker? The British public - the Philippines natural disaster tops the list, (36%) followed by Labour's Porn again Christian Crystal Methodist (12%) while those topics that politicians (and us anoraks) witter on about like immigration (1.2%), the NHS (1.1%), Energy Prices (1%) or the Economy (0.8%) are left trailing in the dust.....

@PopulusPolls: Top Ten most noticed news stories this week #TTMN | Typhoon still dominates, Flowers registers but 1 in 4 say "None" pic.twitter.com/EFklBivNFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I still think there's a possibility Vince Cable will deploy his nuclear weapon in 2014

I think he's forgotten the launch codes.

Finishing fifth behind the Greens in a UK wide election might help focus the minds and cause Vince to remember

Remember what... the way to the toilet?

To remove Clegg and disentangle the Lib Dems from the coalition, so they stop playing the role of the hated Vichy Collaborationists to the evil Nazi Tory Party.

Remember, it could be in Dave's interests for the Lib Dems to replace Clegg with someone like Cable or Farron and/or leave the coalition.

Might be able to reverse a fair chunk of those LD > Lab switchers.

Might reverse a fair chunk of LD > Lab switchers, at the almost certain expense of losing a load of current LD voters who actual believe in fiscal sanity...

...If it wasn't obvious - I think that such a blatant about face is suicidal

Life_ina_market_town said:

CarlottaVance said:

out on bail......

It makes no difference. Criminal proceedings are still active for the purposes of the Contempt of Court Act 1981, and the strict liability rule applies. Remember it is no defence for a publisher to say "I was merely reporting what the police said" (cf the Chief Constable of Greater Manchester & the Prime Minister's comments on Cregan).

Given the nature of the alleged offences I was surprised they were out on bail.....it sounds as though the police may be having difficulty building the case, given the gap between initial release and arrests.....

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT

Perhaps you could write a psychological thriller about a lonely Liverpudlian who spams a political blog with thousands of posts from his one-room bedsit. The drama starts when he realises the shadowy figures paying him a penny-a-post are actually the political enemies he is smearing.

As the story develops, he realises he is part of a grand conspiracy including toffs, the MMR jab, immigrants, the EU and housing. His foil is a z-list ad director who advises women to work as hairdressers.

It ends with a man defusing a nuclear bomb by crying at a funeral.

A minor character is a mad engineer who sits huddled in a corner whilst wittering to himself about high-speed rail ...

Dude, that actually made me chuckle, out loud. Properly. The nuclear bomb thing was the clincher.

You have hidden talents. Which I could weave into the plot...

Thanks. High praise indeed.

To spoil things by being serious, how about a political thriller? You know a great deal about the subject (simply be being on here), and UK-based political thrillers are rather thin on the ground. Although there might be a reason for that ...

Dobbs's 'House of Cards' trilogy was brilliant, but what have we had since then? Harris's 'The Ghost' was really disappointing in a "oh, please" way. It seems to me that there's acres of fertile ground to be exploited. The problem would be giving it mass appeal, but your track record on that is good.

My guess is that UKIP will come 3rd behind Labour and the tories in that order. I think the bubble is deflating now.

If there was anyone in my ward who promised if elected never to go to Brussels and not to claim any salary or expenses (ruling out UKIP obviously) they would have my vote in a heart beat. Whilst I am not irrevocably committed to leaving the EU the European Parliament is right up there with the most useless and pointless inventions mankind has ever come up with. I am amazed it is not on this list: http://list25.com/25-most-useless-inventions-ever/

tpfkar said:

anothernick: I think the truth is that there's a lot of Tories who didn't like Cameron but shut up as they thought he might get them elected. Once in power they felt they had authority to start whinging and heaving their weight around as if they were the issues they got elected for. So any embrace for the likes of us would only work in opposition.

Yes this is clearly the case. I had thought the Tories would put the political interests of their party before their own personal hobbyhorses (as they did in the 1920s and 30s when they co-opted the National Liberals and National Labour MPs). But fortunately for Labour they completely failed to grasp this historic opportunity.

How is Labours' "It's all a Tory smear, we never met the guy" day going?

@rosschawkins: A detail from the docs, Flowers was on Co-op Party NEC for 6 years, alongside Lab MPs inc shadow ministers http://t.co/pxy47o64AE

Life_ina_market_town said:

Given that Labour felt it necessary, via section 71 of the Coroners and Justice Act 2009 to make holding a person in slavery or servitude a criminal offence, can we assume that what this couple are alleged to have done was legal until 6 April 2010 when that provision came into force? .

Without commenting on the specific case, IIRC the various Wilberforce Acts (1) made the trade in slaves illegal (2) authorised the RN to board any ships of any nation suspected of engaging in the trade and (3) against compensation freed any slave who set foot on British soil. Hence, I suppose you could argue that in the UK slavery is impossible - until 2009 as you say - but equally presumably they could be accused of false imprisonment or something?

Anthony Wells on 'private polling' and 'the incumbency effect':

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8431

I think his 'show us your tables or it doesn't exist' is a good rule of thumb....

@ITVRichard: An announcement from the Bank of England on Co-op Bank coming in the next 25 mins, I gather.