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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly five months to go: The EU elections that could mak
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly five months to go: The EU elections that could make or break UKIP
On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Qestminster VI polls a week you have to go back until early October find the last EP2014 survey.
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Should be 15,000,000-1 !
So something close to that.
IMO 2009 turnout was depressed by the expenses scandal, and Labour supporters couldn't be arsed to vote especially when it comes to 1) The Euros and 2) Having Gordon as your leader.
That lower turnout is what helped the BNP win seats.
http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2013/03/Julian_Knight_selected_for_Solihull.aspx
Independent, BBC. But he is going for the Conservatives, NOT the Lib Dems in Solihull ^^;
Does Ed really want to join Neil Kinnock as the only Leader of the Opposition not to win a Euros held in a non election year.
Clegg and the Lib Dems could finish fifth behind the Greens, what's that going to do party morale and Clegg's Leadership?
And Dave, the Tory party will be fevered if UKIP outpoll them, and Dave will be under pressure to give some red meat to win back the Kippers.
If he doesn't, some in the party, may want the party to revert back Papua New Guinea-style orgies of cannibalism and chief-killing.
A Party activist for almost a decade, Julian is also the author of six books covering everything from British politics, the eurozone crisis, tax law and how to play cricket.
Perhaps copies of the last book can be sent to Australia
sorry but the late night cricket has me in a heck of a funk - nailed on double defeat on sunday = england/spurs double.
I do wonder, when Labour will actually say anything about Europe. Hopefully the Euros will start to flush out where they stand; it's one area they've avoided at all costs for getting on for 3 years. which is why the Lib Dems are owning turf that would usually be shared.
I only said they may finish fifth, based on the Mori poll showing the Greens one point behind UKIP and the Lib Dems.
This was the type of cricket I grew up with.
Christ, next we'll be picking Gavin Hamilton and Mark Lathwell
OK after the moves:
Lay Draw @ 6.8 (£10/-£58)
Back Eng @ 36 (£2)
Aus +41.80
Eng +68.68
Draw -75.90
Saturday is forecast to be a day interrupted by showers, but a hot day. So the outfield will dry up quickly after any showers. In addition that can be disruptive to a batting team. If Australia get bogged down I think Broady can do damage and get through their lower order. Also light is probably not going to be a factor in Australia (Unlike in England). The pitch must have SOMETHING in it (I've not watched) for 20 wickets to fall in the first two days - no reason Australia can't collapse in the 2nd innings.
The forecast for Sunday and Monday are both good, so likelihood is that Saturday will be the only rain affected day.
Of course Australia could bat on too long, but Clarke is an aggresive minded captain and so will declare when Aus are maybe 550ish ahead I reckon. With aggresive batting I think they can get there quickly enough - And then there may well be enough overs so that if England can save the game they can win it.
I think the result is an Australia win, but with the draw price being a bit too short and England's price maybe a teeny tiny smidgen too long.
Newspapers only have finite resources, and there's one electoral event that's going to major ramifications next year, and it aint the Euros, so they are saving their money for that.
So in short, I blame the Scots and Alex Salmond.
Or would people not think that's plausible?
Inner London is an interesting one. We read that you can't buy a garden shed for less than a quarter of a million, even in the poorest boroughs of the city, and yet labour claims to remain 'strong' here.
Something somewhere doesn't add up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2014
Trident replacement.
IIRC Labour are still in favour, so there's a party out there, if you're Pro-Green, Pro-Europe and Anti-Nuclear Weapons
IIRC, you said she was even less keen on UKIP than the Tories.
I'm offering the Lib Dems some very good advice, don't ruin it.
My best guess is that the percentage shares will end up something like:-
UKIP 27%,
Labour 25%,
Conservative 20%,
Lib Dem 10%,
Green 8%,
Others 10%.
You should vote for me.
As the Country's First Directly Elected Dictator I would largely implement those policies.
But yes I concede, no one should be using just one freakish poll.
One of my policies is for us to take control of all the countries that used to be part of the British Empire.
All my plans would be funded by taxing all the countries we've ever been at war with, 15% of their GDP as a tribute.
I think 2014 will be the first election with individual voter registration, interesting to see if it makes any difference at all.
Not the Libdems though (and I ain't talking about Vince's trousers).
'The Lib Dems have endorsed a plan to significantly reduce Britain's nuclear deterrent by ending regular patrols by submarines armed with Trident missiles. By 322 votes to 228, the conference rejected a call for Britain to scrap the nuclear deterrent altogether. '
I'm sure you're right, but I wonder if the stuff we read about soaring property values, the 'bedroom tax' and councils housing people outside their boroughs is changing the demographics at all.
There have been plenty of warnings that all of the above would do just that...'ethinc cleansing' and the like.
Given our history, couldn’t you make an exception and up France’s share of tribute the 30% ?
Fatherland was a well known political thriller set in a world where Hitler had won WW2. Maybe you could do a future thriller in a world where the EUSSR was running and ruining the EU from Brussels and a plucky Brit hero leads the resistance movement...chuck in a bit of Chinese superpowerplay / the USA is bankrupt, a couple of superhot Kazakh hookers who are not what they seem, a HUGE evil secret that lies behind EU party chairman comrade Dubois' rise to power and the emergence of brainwave mapping & mind control - what's not to like?
And we'll be able to take 100% of their GDP.
You just won my vote - where do I sign up..?
Perhaps you could write a psychological thriller about a lonely Liverpudlian who spams a political blog with thousands of posts from his one-room bedsit. The drama starts when he realises the shadowy figures paying him a penny-a-post are actually the political enemies he is smearing.
As the story develops, he realises he is part of a grand conspiracy including toffs, the MMR jab, immigrants, the EU and housing. His foil is a z-list ad director who advises women to work as hairdressers.
It ends with a man defusing a nuclear bomb by crying at a funeral.
A minor character is a mad engineer who sits huddled in a corner whilst wittering to himself about high-speed rail ...
Remember, it could be in Dave's interests for the Lib Dems to replace Clegg with someone like Cable or Farron and/or leave the coalition.
Might be able to reverse a fair chunk of those LD > Lab switchers.
Lennon - I could probably live with transferring to taxation as long as amounts for green generation were maintained or ideally increased (that would be my price) However what we have is fairer as there's an incentive to use less energy when green levies come from energy bills, and moving to general taxation removes that. Particularly true for corporates if it's a switch to income tax. I wouldn't consider any reduction in levies acceptable.
TSE: Do you have a vacancy for a vice-dictator? (Although I think "Dictactor of Vice" sounds better.) On nuclear weapons, the LD policy is daft and we'll deservedly be attacked on it from right and left at the election. The part-time deterrent is a compromise I can't see working politically or in practice. I'm pro-nuclear energy as it's the most practical way to secure supply and get carbon emissions down.
anothernick: I think the truth is that there's a lot of Tories who didn't like Cameron but shut up as they thought he might get them elected. Once in power they felt they had authority to start whinging and heaving their weight around as if they were the issues they got elected for. So any embrace for the likes of us would only work in opposition.
Well yes this would be the grown up way to go about reducing energy usage but since cost of living is now the political battle you'll struggle to make that argument.
I'm actually thinking of becoming the Directly Elected Legitimate Tyrant.
A Vice-Tyrant would be good.
Although Mr Dancer would say I'm like Agathocles of Syracuse.
Anyway don't forget people, Doctor Who 50th Anniversary on tomorrow night, don't miss it.
I'm about to get my geek on.
Why do you not put up all the university voting Scott, all 3 in the last few weeks have been landslides for yes. Of course they are just a bit older and wiser and realise the truth. It is real fun seeing the dopey unionists relying on the odd vote of 16 year olds to justify their position whilst ignoring getting slaughtered at every cut and turn.
You appear to be in fine spirits after the Cons swept back to power defeating the yellow peril in your manor last night..
@PopulusPolls: Top Ten most noticed news stories this week #TTMN | Typhoon still dominates, Flowers registers but 1 in 4 say "None" pic.twitter.com/EFklBivNFD
On London demography, it seems the predicted mass exodus due to the benefits cap has not happened. This according to Hammersmith and Fulham. Private landlords simply caved in and struck deals with the council at much lower rents.
There are wider implications. Under labour councils could have been forking over stacks of taxpayers money to profiteering landlords for years.
...If it wasn't obvious - I think that such a blatant about face is suicidal
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Aachen-Memorandum-Andrew-Roberts/dp/1849542961
To spoil things by being serious, how about a political thriller? You know a great deal about the subject (simply be being on here), and UK-based political thrillers are rather thin on the ground. Although there might be a reason for that ...
Dobbs's 'House of Cards' trilogy was brilliant, but what have we had since then? Harris's 'The Ghost' was really disappointing in a "oh, please" way. It seems to me that there's acres of fertile ground to be exploited. The problem would be giving it mass appeal, but your track record on that is good.
If there was anyone in my ward who promised if elected never to go to Brussels and not to claim any salary or expenses (ruling out UKIP obviously) they would have my vote in a heart beat. Whilst I am not irrevocably committed to leaving the EU the European Parliament is right up there with the most useless and pointless inventions mankind has ever come up with. I am amazed it is not on this list: http://list25.com/25-most-useless-inventions-ever/
@rosschawkins: A detail from the docs, Flowers was on Co-op Party NEC for 6 years, alongside Lab MPs inc shadow ministers http://t.co/pxy47o64AE
Although I go to Comberton regularly and often cycle through it.
I forgot to say thanks to Harry for his excellent threader last night.
The BBC says from 2014 individual voter registration will be compulsory for 1. new voters
2. Anyone voting by proxy or by post.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18002966
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8431
I think his 'show us your tables or it doesn't exist' is a good rule of thumb....
Sounds about right.