politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads

System · August 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling

There’s little doubt that if the general election had been on May 4th, local election day, then Mrs. May would have got her landslide. The general election polling that was coming out at the time with leads of 15%/20% was broadly reflected in the way that the country voted in the range of elections on that day. The build up to that Thursday, and her dramatic visit to the Palace on May 3rd and speech in Downing Street afterwards very much set the tone for the elections the following day.

Read the full story here

foxinsoxuk · August 2017

first, like Huddersfield!

MikeSmithson · August 2017

foxinsoxuk said:
first, like Huddersfield!

Great result nearly matching Burnley.

dixiedean · August 2017

Second like the second coming of Rooney!...Or even third like the number LFC concede.

Danny565 · August 2017

Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

foxinsoxuk · August 2017

MikeSmithson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
first, like Huddersfield!
Great result nearly matching Burnley.

I am on both Huddersfield and Burnley in the Handicap win. Quite worried about Leicester. The defence is comedy, though not alone there, but Shakey's subs are incomprehensible.

DavidL · August 2017

MikeSmithson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
first, like Huddersfield!
Great result nearly matching Burnley.

Brilliant result but City look unbeatable. Much as it hurts me as a United fan to admit It I even like the way they play. Looks like the Barca of 5 years ago.

tlg86 · August 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeSmithson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
first, like Huddersfield!
Great result nearly matching Burnley.

I am on both Huddersfield and Burnley in the Handicap win. Quite worried about Leicester. The defence is comedy, though not alone there, but Shakey's subs are incomprehensible.

You'll be fine, I think Leicester will be Top 10.

tlg86 · August 2017

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
first, like Huddersfield!
Great result nearly matching Burnley.

Brilliant result but City look unbeatable. Much as it hurts me as a United fan to admit It I even like the way they play. Looks like the Barca of 5 years ago.

I was lucky enough to see Barca in the flesh in 2010 and 2011. City are nowhere near that level of performance.

DavidL · August 2017

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.

DavidL · August 2017

tlg86 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
first, like Huddersfield!
Great result nearly matching Burnley.

Brilliant result but City look unbeatable. Much as it hurts me as a United fan to admit It I even like the way they play. Looks like the Barca of 5 years ago.
I was lucky enough to see Barca in the flesh in 2010 and 2011. City are nowhere near that level of performance.

De Bruyn is no Ienesta but who is? He is as close as there is today. If there was a chance to take one player from another team it would be him, Kante or Hazard. Pushed , I would go for him.

Danny565 · August 2017

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.

Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?

Nigelb · August 2017

foxinsoxuk said:
first, like Huddersfield!

German management....

tlg86 · August 2017

DavidL said:

tlg86 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

foxinsoxuk said:
first, like Huddersfield!
Great result nearly matching Burnley.

Brilliant result but City look unbeatable. Much as it hurts me as a United fan to admit It I even like the way they play. Looks like the Barca of 5 years ago.
I was lucky enough to see Barca in the flesh in 2010 and 2011. City are nowhere near that level of performance.
De Bruyn is no Ienesta but who is? He is as close as there is today. If there was a chance to take one player from another team it would be him, Kante or Hazard. Pushed , I would go for him.

He is very good, I think it would be between him and Kane for me if I could take a player from another team. But the issue with City isn't so much personnel as it is mental strength. Let's see how they get on when the nights start drawing in. By contrast, I think Spurs need to get off to a decent start which they haven't in the last two seasons.

DavidL · August 2017

Danny565 said:

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?

No, it shows Tories support a leader, even a duff one. They will support the next duff leader too. Especially given the choice Labour are offering.

Charles · August 2017

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

Which PBTories are advocating for a change of leader, except @TSE?

Danny565 · August 2017

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
No, it shows Tories support a leader, even a duff one. They will support the next duff leader too. Especially given the choice Labour are offering.

"Tories always support a leader". Quite a number of people voted for the Tories this time are people who hadn't voted for them for many elections - many of them I would argue precisely because of May's personal qualities. Why you would be so confident that they're in the bag for the Tories no matter what, when they didn't even vote for Cameron, is beyond me.

Danny565 · August 2017

Charles said:

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
Which PBTories are advocating for a change of leader, except @TSE?

Almost every PBTory is suggesting a change of leader before the next election, with the implicit assumption this will automatically lead to an improvement for their electoral fortunes.

foxinsoxuk · August 2017

It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html

RobD · August 2017

snip

ydoethur · August 2017

Danny565 said:

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?

It also shows that Corbyn is much less popular than his party. So that suggests that if somebody who didn't have unsavoury associations with the IRA, Hamas, Venezuela and Diane Abbott were leading them, not to mention somebody all his own MPs distrust, they would be in a much stronger position to win the next election?

Edit: although it's interesting to note May's ratings are also lower than her party's, but by 2-3 points rather than 8-9, which rather tells against your earlier point.

RobD · August 2017

ydoethur said:

Danny565 said:

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
It also shows that Corbyn is much less popular than his party. So that suggests that if somebody who didn't have unsavoury associations with the IRA, Hamas, Venezuela and Diane Abbott were leading them, not to mention somebody all his own MPs distrust, they would be in a much stronger position to win the next election?

Edit: although it's interesting to note May's ratings are also lower than her party's, but by 2-3 points rather than 8-9, which rather tells against your earlier point.

No guarantee Labour will pick that person though.

ydoethur · August 2017

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

Danny565 said:

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:
Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
It also shows that Corbyn is much less popular than his party. So that suggests that if somebody who didn't have unsavoury associations with the IRA, Hamas, Venezuela and Diane Abbott were leading them, not to mention somebody all his own MPs distrust, they would be in a much stronger position to win the next election?

Edit: although it's interesting to note May's ratings are also lower than her party's, but by 2-3 points rather than 8-9, which rather tells against your earlier point.
No guarantee Labour will pick that person though.

The point is that with the possible exceptions of McDonnell (Corbyn without the charm) Abbott (who I suspect is too ill anyway) and Thornberry (who apparently still believes she was a colonel in the Army despite being patiently told by the MoD she is wrong) it is not hard to see that any candidate would be an improvement. Rayner may be rather dim but she hasn't the baggage. Long-Bailey and Smith would be worse but also have no chance. Ashworth is capable and popular. Trickett is at least capable. Watson is for some peculiar reason popular.

Corbyn did far better than anyone including he himself expected. But really under a half-decent leader the Tories would never have dared call the election and would have been there for the taking in 2020. There is no certainty Corbyn can lead Labour back to government and indeed these numbers suggest he probably cannot.

foxinsoxuk · August 2017

@ydoethur

Corbyn has the aura of a visionary prophet, and that aura is not likely to be transferrable (or to survive experience of power). While he carries a lot of the baggage that you mention, he carries a lot of more positive baggage too, at least in the eyes of many Britons.

NickPalmer · August 2017

My recollection (which may be wrong) is that incumbents usually lead fairly comfortably in the Best PM polling, because it's easier to visualise them doing it if they're already doing it. A 3-point lead is nothing much if that's the case - but is it? Do others know?

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

NickPalmer said:
My recollection (which may be wrong) is that incumbents usually lead fairly comfortably in the Best PM polling, because it's easier to visualise them doing it if they're already doing it. A 3-point lead is nothing much if that's the case - but is it? Do others know?

Pretty poor compared to Cameron, who regularly led Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn by double digits.

For example shortly before the 2015 general election Cameron led Miliband by 14%

Alistair · August 2017

foxinsoxuk said:
It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html

I've seen the video, it was incredibly deliberate.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

Alistair said:

foxinsoxuk said:
It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html
I've seen the video, it was incredibly deliberate.

Yeah, I saw the video too, words fail me.

Alistair · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

foxinsoxuk said:
It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html
I've seen the video, it was incredibly deliberate.
Yeah, I saw the video too, words fail me.

Trump has gone with "Both sides are bad"

Other Republicans are being decent human beings and denouncing Nazism.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

foxinsoxuk said:
It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html
I've seen the video, it was incredibly deliberate.
Yeah, I saw the video too, words fail me.
Trump has gone with "Both sides are bad"

Other Republicans are being decent human beings and denouncing Nazism.

He also said we should love Nazis too.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

David Miliband makes a dramatic entry into the debate about Britain’s exit from the EU with an impassioned call for politicians from all parties to work together to avoid the Tory high command driving the country “off a cliff”.

Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.

In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

Look Nige, they are trying to take back control of their country, thought you'd have approved.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/896445864398520321

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
David Miliband makes a dramatic entry into the debate about Britain’s exit from the EU with an impassioned call for politicians from all parties to work together to avoid the Tory high command driving the country “off a cliff”.

Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.

In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02661/cringe-milliband-b_2661184b.jpg

MarkHopkins · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
David Miliband makes a dramatic entry into the debate about Britain’s exit from the EU with an impassioned call for politicians from all parties to work together to avoid the Tory high command driving the country “off a cliff”.

Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.

In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

"abdication" from the man who ran away from a leadership challenge vs Brown.

williamglenn · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Look Nige, they are trying to take back control of their country, thought you'd have approved.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/896445864398520321

Disbelief usually signals approval in Farage's lexicon.

https://www.twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/824728866375790592

HYUFD · August 2017

There is no doubt there is huge enthusiasm for Corbyn on the left but the right hates his policies (apart from his acceptance of Brexit) and the centre has huge reservations about him which is why the next general election is so unpredictable

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896473697418072064
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896474272146882566

HYUFD · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris

MP_SE2 · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896473697418072064
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896474272146882566

JRM4PM

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2017

TSE doing Scott_P's job tonight

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris

Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.

MP_SE2 · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
David Miliband makes a dramatic entry into the debate about Britain’s exit from the EU with an impassioned call for politicians from all parties to work together to avoid the Tory high command driving the country “off a cliff”.

Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.

In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Not really dramatic. Few have heard of him and even fewer care what he has to say.

HYUFD · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.

Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896476648803119108

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote

It's all about seats.

What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?

ydoethur · August 2017

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote

Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...

AndyJS · August 2017

Britain wins Gold in 3rd fastest time ever. Bolt pulls up, sadly.

HYUFD · August 2017

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...

Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

Honestly that was like Bradman's duck.

Poor Usain Bolt

ydoethur · August 2017

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001

Shhh!

Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.

Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...

HYUFD · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
It's all about seats.

What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?

Look, I am not disputing Cameron did better seats wise in 2015 and did a tremendous job winning most seats in 2010 and an overall majority in 2015 but nonetheless May was also able to win over former UKIP 2010 and 2015 voters who Cameron could never have won over while keeping most of those who voted for Dave. Despite her dire campaign and abysmal policies like the dementia tax that should not be forgotten

stevef · August 2017

Corbyn beware. Labour got 40% because of Brexit and because he piled up votes in seats Labour already held following the tuition fees bribe. He remains a n electoral liability for Labour which could have got rid of him if the Tories had won a majority.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
It's all about seats.

What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
Look, I am not disputing Cameron did better seats wise and did a tremendous job winning most seats in 2010 and an overall majority in 2015 but nonetheless May was also able to win over former UKIP 2010 and 2015 voters who Cameron could never have won over while keeping most of those who voted for Dave. Despite her dire campaign and abysmal policies like the dementia tax that should not be forgotten

She also managed to unite the left behind Jeremy Corbyn.

Destroying an empire to win a war is no victory, as a famous Emperor once said.

AndyJS · August 2017

Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

HYUFD · August 2017

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001
Shhh!

Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.

Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...

Corbyn is a better campaigner than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband I will give him that but he is not in the same league as Tony Blair

HYUFD · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
It's all about seats.

What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
Look, I am not disputing Cameron did better seats wise and did a tremendous job winning most seats in 2010 and an overall majority in 2015 but nonetheless May was also able to win over former UKIP 2010 and 2015 voters who Cameron could never have won over while keeping most of those who voted for Dave. Despite her dire campaign and abysmal policies like the dementia tax that should not be forgotten
She also managed to unite the left behind Jeremy Corbyn.

Destroying an empire to win a war is no victory, as a famous Emperor once said.

I think Corbyn did that himself, no Tory leader would have changed that

ydoethur · August 2017

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001
Shhh!

Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.

Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...
Corbyn is a better campaigner than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband I will give him that but he is not in the same league as Tony Blair

Talk about damning with faint praise. Being a better campaigner than Ed Miliband is the electoral equivalent of being less obese than Kim Jong Un. And in fairness, Corbyn has proven three times how formidable a campaigner he is. I just don't think it's enough to carry Labour across the line given the Marmite nature of his leadership.

I agree, incidentally with your main point. Tony Blair was in many significant ways a political giant, but to slightly misquote Edward Heath on Harold Wilson, I never felt he was a statesman.

Good night all.

HYUFD · August 2017

AndyJS said:
Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

Harold Wilson of course also managed 44% in 1964 and 48% in 1966 and even when he lost in 1970 he got 43%. Corbyn roughly matched the 39% Wilson got in October 1974

williamglenn · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896476648803119108

No, we'll be staying by the front door.

Charles · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
It's all about seats.

What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?

You can't control your opponent's votes, without going negative.

And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
It's all about seats.

What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
You can't control your opponent's votes, without going negative.

And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%

Yeah, the Tories didn't go negative, they never mentioned Corbyn's past, not once.

ydoethur · August 2017

AndyJS said:
Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

Not quite. It's unarguable that he was a winner. They think he's not a left-winger. Therefore he doesn't count. In the first part of course they are correct. But since only two left wing leaders have won an majority of more than five seats and the last was over 50 years ago, it would occur to anyone of average intelligence whether ideological purity or actual power is more desirable. For Corbyn, who is not very bright, it is purity because he thinks it will lead to power. For Blair, who is undoubtedly intelligent, it was power and he knew being left wing would make that difficult if not impossible.

Good night.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2017

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896482619067691008

HYUFD · August 2017

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001
Shhh!

Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.

Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...
Corbyn is a better campaigner than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband I will give him that but he is not in the same league as Tony Blair
Talk about damning with faint praise. Being a better campaigner than Ed Miliband is the electoral equivalent of being less obese than Kim Jong Un. And in fairness, Corbyn has proven three times how formidable a campaigner he is. I just don't think it's enough to carry Labour across the line given the Marmite nature of his leadership.

I agree, incidentally with your main point. Tony Blair was in many significant ways a political giant, but to slightly misquote Edward Heath on Harold Wilson, I never felt he was a statesman.

Good night all.

Ha ha, yes being a better campaigner than Ed Miliband is not too hard and certainly not enough on its own to get to No 10

SandyRentool · August 2017

If 12 months ago, any of us had said that Tezzie would barely have a lead over Jezza on Best PM they would have been advised to go and have a lie down.

During the election campaign not only did voters' opinion of May go down, but their opinion of Corbyn went up.

What is clear is that both parties will be better off with a different leader next time around.

SandyRentool · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896482619067691008

Sorry, but how is the Moggster 'skipping a generation' when he is only a couple of years younger than David Cameron?

welshowl · August 2017

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896476648803119108
No, we'll be staying by the front door.

Why would the 27 want us? We are trouble.

CornishBlue · August 2017

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896476648803119108
No, we'll be staying by the front door.

When we have left the EU how will you cope? Or will the delusion somehow continue?

Charles · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
It's all about seats.

What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
You can't control your opponent's votes, without going negative.

And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%
Yeah, the Tories didn't go negative, they never mentioned Corbyn's past, not once.

They didn't - the media did. The Tories said very little.

Clearly, though, going negatively effectively should be taken as read.

foxinsoxuk · August 2017

AndyJS said:
Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

By the 2022 GE, no Tory leader other than David Cameron will have won a majority for 30 years.. Neither side seems to like their winners much. Toomuch compromise with reality...

welshowl · August 2017

CornishBlue said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896476648803119108
No, we'll be staying by the front door.
When we have left the EU how will you cope? Or will the delusion somehow continue?

Hiroo Onoda? Last Japanese soldier standing. Surrendered in the 70's I think.

Pulpstar · August 2017

Looks like the great British public is beginning to see some sense with Corbyn, and thank God for that

foxinsoxuk · August 2017

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
It's all about seats.

What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
You can't control your opponent's votes, without going negative.

And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%
Yeah, the Tories didn't go negative, they never mentioned Corbyn's past, not once.
They didn't - the media did. The Tories said very little.

Clearly, though, going negatively effectively should be taken as read.

The whole "Strong and Stable" schtick was an implicit attack on Corbyn, making him out to be neither.

It turned out to be the worst campaign in modern history. The more the Tories turned the spotlight on Jezza, the more the public liked him.

HYUFD · August 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:
Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.
By the 2022 GE, no Tory leader other than David Cameron will have won a majority for 30 years.. Neither side seems to like their winners much. Toomuch compromise with reality...

The patron saint of Tory leaders for Tory voters is of course Maggie Thatcher while the patron saint of Labour leaders for Labour voters is Clement Attlee because both managed to win while remaining ideologically pure, however most of the time the average voter wants a centrist Blair or a Cameron rather than an ideologue

Danny565 · August 2017

ydoethur said:

The point is that with the possible exceptions of McDonnell (Corbyn without the charm) Abbott (who I suspect is too ill anyway) and Thornberry (who apparently still believes she was a colonel in the Army despite being patiently told by the MoD she is wrong) it is not hard to see that any candidate would be an improvement. Rayner may be rather dim but she hasn't the baggage. Long-Bailey and Smith would be worse but also have no chance. Ashworth is capable and popular. Trickett is at least capable. Watson is for some peculiar reason popular.

Corbyn did far better than anyone including he himself expected. But really under a half-decent leader the Tories would never have dared call the election and would have been there for the taking in 2020. There is no certainty Corbyn can lead Labour back to government and indeed these numbers suggest he probably cannot.

How exactly does him being only a few points behind a Tory leader who is probably more popular than her successor, a sign that he "probably cannot" win an election?

NickPalmer · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896473697418072064
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896474272146882566

Except it's not the same as Tony's masochism strategy. That was to offer to debate with his most ferocious critics. He didn't offer to change, he tried to persuade them they were mistaken. Because he's pretty good at debate, it was at least half successful.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2017

welshowl said:

CornishBlue said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896476648803119108
No, we'll be staying by the front door.
When we have left the EU how will you cope? Or will the delusion somehow continue?
Hiroo Onoda? Last Japanese soldier standing. Surrendered in the 70's I think.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/895747098938925058

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
Polls? Eh.

What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.

Not in Scotland

Mortimer · August 2017

Entirely OT, but thoroughly recommend the RSC's Queen Anne with Romola Garai; really funny, as well as historically and politically interesting.

slade · August 2017

The Terriers top of the Premier League - what are the odds on that and for the next few weeks.

JonnyJimmy · August 2017

To help Mike fight those Jihadists.. https://youtu.be/Hsq-AAo45q0

foxinsoxuk · August 2017

slade said:
The Terriers top of the Premier League - what are the odds on that and for the next few weeks.

There next match is Newcastle at home, and I have them down to win. Man City may go top though.

Leicester must win against Brighton, after that we have horrible fixtures until end Sept.

williamglenn · August 2017

welshowl said:

CornishBlue said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896476648803119108
No, we'll be staying by the front door.
When we have left the EU how will you cope? Or will the delusion somehow continue?
Hiroo Onoda? Last Japanese soldier standing. Surrendered in the 70's I think.

Digby Jones thinks we should see the upside in 100 years' time so he's making a valiant bid to be the last Brexiteer standing.

Pulpstar · August 2017

Nice evening out at Surprise View here. Clear for once

NickPalmer · August 2017

HYUFD said:

The patron saint of Tory leaders for Tory voters is of course Maggie Thatcher while the patron saint of Labour leaders for Labour voters is Clement Attlee because both managed to win while remaining ideologically pure, however most of the time the average voter wants a centrist Blair or a Cameron rather than an ideologue

Attlee wasn't seen as at all ideologically pure at the time - he had a long-running feud with left-wingers including Harold Laski on the NEC, culminating in his famous put down - "A period of silence from Mr Laski would be appreciated."

Curiously, my extremely non-political mother met both Laski and the Webbs, who moved in similar circles (I think the London upper middle classes were mostly familiar with each other, even when politically divided). She thought Laski was charming - he seems to have been a bit like Corbyn with his gentle idealism, so gentle and politely interested in her life that my mum didn't actually realise that he was interested in politics. She found the Webbs tiresomely intense.

JonnyJimmy · August 2017

This place has really become weird.

@MikeSmithson used to ban people for calling other people racist. He now himself calls leavers jihadists. On the same thread that he attacks a regular, intelligent poster for questioning Chapman, a fellow Remainer's intelligence.

Meanwhile @AlastairMeeks attacks posters for questioning Chapman's sanity, at the same time as calling leavers xenophobic loons.

@TheScreamingEagles has done threads using polling to prove that leavers have dirty underpants, remainers love bum sex (this may have been Smithson), and that everyone who doesn't hate May has a tiny brain.

I hope you'll get back to intelligent political discussion soon x

GeoffM · August 2017

JonnyJimmy said:
This place has really become weird.

@MikeSmithson used to ban people for calling other people racist. He now himself calls leavers jihadists. On the same thread that he attacks a regular, intelligent poster for questioning Chapman, a fellow Remainer's intelligence.

Meanwhile @AlastairMeeks attacks posters for questioning Chapman's sanity, at the same time as calling leavers xenophobic loons.

@TheScreamingEagles has done threads using polling to prove that leavers have dirty underpants, remainers love bum sex (this may have been Smithson), and that everyone who doesn't hate May has a tiny brain.

I hope you'll get back to intelligent political discussion soon x

Its depressing but true. This place has jumped the shark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpraJYnbVtE

rcs1000 · August 2017

GeoffM said:

JonnyJimmy said:
This place has really become weird.

@MikeSmithson used to ban people for calling other people racist. He now himself calls leavers jihadists. On the same thread that he attacks a regular, intelligent poster for questioning Chapman, a fellow Remainer's intelligence.

Meanwhile @AlastairMeeks attacks posters for questioning Chapman's sanity, at the same time as calling leavers xenophobic loons.

@TheScreamingEagles has done threads using polling to prove that leavers have dirty underpants, remainers love bum sex (this may have been Smithson), and that everyone who doesn't hate May has a tiny brain.

I hope you'll get back to intelligent political discussion soon x
Its depressing but true. This place has jumped the shark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpraJYnbVtE

Dude: you have been among the first to put the boot in to people (and peoples) you don't like. What was it you called Spaniards, again?

justin124 · August 2017

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:
Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.
Harold Wilson of course also managed 44% in 1964 and 48% in 1966 and even when he lost in 1970 he got 43%. Corbyn roughly matched the 39% Wilson got in October 1974

Corbyn managed 41% on a GB basis - and 40% across the UK. Comparisons with 1964 and 1966 need to take account of the fact that there were then far fewer third party candidates - even the Liberals contested only circa 50% of the seats - with the result that both Labour and Tory vote shares were artificially high.

ydoethur · August 2017

Danny565 said:

ydoethur said:

The point is that with the possible exceptions of McDonnell (Corbyn without the charm) Abbott (who I suspect is too ill anyway) and Thornberry (who apparently still believes she was a colonel in the Army despite being patiently told by the MoD she is wrong) it is not hard to see that any candidate would be an improvement. Rayner may be rather dim but she hasn't the baggage. Long-Bailey and Smith would be worse but also have no chance. Ashworth is capable and popular. Trickett is at least capable. Watson is for some peculiar reason popular.

Corbyn did far better than anyone including he himself expected. But really under a half-decent leader the Tories would never have dared call the election and would have been there for the taking in 2020. There is no certainty Corbyn can lead Labour back to government and indeed these numbers suggest he probably cannot.
How exactly does him being only a few points behind a Tory leader who is probably more popular than her successor, a sign that he "probably cannot" win an election?

As has been noted upthread, PMs always have an advantage over those who are not PM simply by being in office. Almost every new leader has seen their ratings rise dramatically on appointment/election - May herself, Brown, Blair (touching 93% at one point in 1997) Major (zero to hero in six months in the polls) Thatcher (who had trailed Callaghan throughout the election). I can't remember it happening for Cameron, but he would be the exception and the circumstances were unusual.

So I'm afraid your point is special pleading. These ratings for both are low by historical standards and there is little doubt that replacements would do better. The key point to take away is that Corbyn despite all the chest-beating and hubris is still significantly less popular than May and is still dragging down Labour. Until that changes it makes the task of winning an election significantly more difficult for you.

old_labour · August 2017

Mortimer said:
Entirely OT, but thoroughly recommend the RSC's Queen Anne with Romola Garai; really funny, as well as historically and politically interesting.

Good to read that as I will be seeing the play in less than two weeks.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads

Comments