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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling
There’s little doubt that if the general election had been on May 4th, local election day, then Mrs. May would have got her landslide. The general election polling that was coming out at the time with leads of 15%/20% was broadly reflected in the way that the country voted in the range of elections on that day. The build up to that Thursday, and her dramatic visit to the Palace on May 3rd and speech in Downing Street afterwards very much set the tone for the elections the following day.
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Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
This strikes me as highly unsatisfactory for several reasons. It is rather unattractive and lacks a certain boldness. By favouring some colours over others, the "neutral" kit has a preference for only some parts of the spectrum. Worse still, the Russian flag is also white, blue and red - barely disguising the fact this is a Russian team in all but name.
I do, however, have a solution.
I propose that the "neutrals" should wear kit in the colours of the Rainbow Flag. A rainbow top, rainbow shorts and rainbow socks. Rainbow headbands available too. If an athlete reaches the podium, the silly flag saying "IAAF" (which is a logo, let us face it, not a proper flag) should be replaced with the Rainbow Flag itself.
It would be bold, striking, aesthetically pleasing, not aligned with any particular flag, and highly inclusive. Russians will love cheering for it. And if one of them wins, at least it would be funny.
I might also note that the guy in charge of the stadium sound system seems to love playing YMCA. The crowd love it. If a Russian wins, the present situation is that the Official Anthem of the IAAF will be played. But that is quite sad; after all, who can get behind the Offical Anthem of the IAAF? Who can it stir the passion and pride of? Who can claim to enjoy the dirge? But that is not the only choice of song available. You Can Make Another.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html
Edit: although it's interesting to note May's ratings are also lower than her party's, but by 2-3 points rather than 8-9, which rather tells against your earlier point.
Corbyn did far better than anyone including he himself expected. But really under a half-decent leader the Tories would never have dared call the election and would have been there for the taking in 2020. There is no certainty Corbyn can lead Labour back to government and indeed these numbers suggest he probably cannot.
Corbyn has the aura of a visionary prophet, and that aura is not likely to be transferrable (or to survive experience of power). While he carries a lot of the baggage that you mention, he carries a lot of more positive baggage too, at least in the eyes of many Britons.
For example shortly before the 2015 general election Cameron led Miliband by 14%
Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
Other Republicans are being decent human beings and denouncing Nazism.
Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.
In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/896445864398520321
"abdication" from the man who ran away from a leadership challenge vs Brown.
https://www.twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/824728866375790592
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/896474272146882566
What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896476648803119108
What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
Poor Usain Bolt
Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.
Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...
Destroying an empire to win a war is no victory, as a famous Emperor once said.
I agree, incidentally with your main point. Tony Blair was in many significant ways a political giant, but to slightly misquote Edward Heath on Harold Wilson, I never felt he was a statesman.
Good night all.
And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%
Good night.
During the election campaign not only did voters' opinion of May go down, but their opinion of Corbyn went up.
What is clear is that both parties will be better off with a different leader next time around.
Clearly, though, going negatively effectively should be taken as read.
It turned out to be the worst campaign in modern history. The more the Tories turned the spotlight on Jezza, the more the public liked him.
Leicester must win against Brighton, after that we have horrible fixtures until end Sept.
Over the past few years, hotel Wi-Fi has emerged as a frequent vehicle for advanced hackers to target people of interest who happen to be connected. In 2014, researchers at security firm Kaspersky Lab said a group it dubbed Dark Hotel had been infecting hotel networks for at least seven years. In a separate report a year later, Kaspersky Lab researchers uncovered evidence suggesting a separate hacking group with ties to the creators of the Stuxnet worm infected hotel conference rooms in an attempt to monitor high-level diplomatic negotiations the US and five other nations held with Iran over its nuclear program.
Why do "high value targets" like diplomats or top party workers use hotel wi-fi?
Downing Street aide in Chinese 'honeytrap' sting
An adviser to Gordon Brown has had his Blackberry phone stolen by a woman suspected of being a Chinese intelligence officer. The aide to the Prime Minister met the woman in a disco in Shanghai during a trip to China with Mr Brown earlier this year. The unnamed official went back to his hotel room with her and the next morning reported that his mobile phone, which also contained his emails, was missing.
And from 2009:
Former Boris aide Ian Clement claims he was lured into sex by Chinese spy
London’s former deputy mayor, Ian Clement, has admitted he was lured by a female Chinese secret agent, who drugged him and ransacked his Beijing hotel room after having sex with him. Clement said he fell for “the oldest trick in the book”, euphemistically known as ‘honey trap’ in intelligence circles, while accompanying UK Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell to Beijing to “build contacts with potential investors” for the 2012 Summer Olympics in London. He said he became acquainted with an attractive Chinese woman at the exclusive official party on the opening night of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, and had a few drinks with her. He then invited her to his hotel room, where he eventually became unconscious. Upon waking up, several hours later, he found that “the woman had rifled through confidential documents and downloaded details about how the capital is run from his BlackBerry Smartphone”. Interestingly, Clement said that he and the rest of the British official delegation to the Beijing Olympics had been briefed by MI6 prior to their trip and specifically warned that the Chinese Ministry of State Security often use honey traps to get information from visiting foreign officials.
Was British diplomat set up by the Russian secret service?
Yesterday, a four-minute video surfaced featuring 37-year-old British diplomat James Hudson, entitled "Adventures of Mr Hudson in Russia". It shows the deputy consul general in Ekaterinburg cavorting with two prostitutes. He has since resigned. ... It has been suggested that the diplomat might have been lured into a "honey trap" by the Russian intelligence service FSB, the successor to the KGB, with the aim of embarrassing the British Government.
Do people never learn to take even basic precautions, following which should be part of their jobs?
Curiously, my extremely non-political mother met both Laski and the Webbs, who moved in similar circles (I think the London upper middle classes were mostly familiar with each other, even when politically divided). She thought Laski was charming - he seems to have been a bit like Corbyn with his gentle idealism, so gentle and politely interested in her life that my mum didn't actually realise that he was interested in politics. She found the Webbs tiresomely intense.
@MikeSmithson used to ban people for calling other people racist. He now himself calls leavers jihadists. On the same thread that he attacks a regular, intelligent poster for questioning Chapman, a fellow Remainer's intelligence.
Meanwhile @AlastairMeeks attacks posters for questioning Chapman's sanity, at the same time as calling leavers xenophobic loons.
@TheScreamingEagles has done threads using polling to prove that leavers have dirty underpants, remainers love bum sex (this may have been Smithson), and that everyone who doesn't hate May has a tiny brain.
I hope you'll get back to intelligent political discussion soon x
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpraJYnbVtE
So I'm afraid your point is special pleading. These ratings for both are low by historical standards and there is little doubt that replacements would do better. The key point to take away is that Corbyn despite all the chest-beating and hubris is still significantly less popular than May and is still dragging down Labour. Until that changes it makes the task of winning an election significantly more difficult for you.