Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Davis still firm favourite to succeed TMay while Johnson

2»

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    rcs1000 said:

    Tonight I'm having dinner with two friends. She is Portuguese, and a genuine and fervent EU fan. He is English and a Eurosceptic.

    I will be trying to keep the conversation away from Brexit.

    "In 2015 the taxpayers of Portugal received from the European Union 81 euros per head over what they contributed. Since its accession to the EU the country has received from the European Union EUR 64414 million over what it has contributed."

    That's why she is a fervent EU fan.

    ( From http://www.money-go-round.eu/Country.aspx?id=PT )
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Proper blanket finish in the men's 200m final!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Mortimer said:

    I understand the sentiment, but also understand those scared witless by Corbyn and McMao's policies. Screwing the rich always ends up screwing the middle classes.
    Inequality is a real problem. Too many people do not have a stake. And some rich, far from being screwed, are taking the piss and screwing the rest of us. I cite British Gas.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Jonathan said:

    Bank crashes, not so much.

    Feels churlish to point out that Corbyn is trying to help those without the luxury of enough to put in offshore accounts and that might be a good thing
    Bank deposit insurance to the first point.

    I understand the point about Corbyn, but I simply feel it'll all end up screwing it up for us all if anything like his policies make contact with reality. That won't help anyone.

    If I didn't believe that wholeheartedly- I'd vote for him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    Mortimer said:

    Because reasons, and whashisname Chapman say so?

    Seriously, Remainers need to get over themselves.

    Can it be that it was all so simple then, or has time rewritten every line?

    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    Jonathan said:

    Inequality is a real problem. Too many people do not have a stake. And some rich, far from being screwed, are taking the piss and screwing the rest of us. I cite British Gas.

    I totally sympathise - global neo-liberalism has really helped the world as a whole, but shafted a lot of Brits, including many in my own family.

    But, despite that, I am convinced that government could do a lot more to fight inequality than confiscate the income of the wealthy. People are fully entitled to put their money where they like.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Can it be that it was all so simple then, or has time rewritten every line?

    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008
    Shame you lost that argument on the 23rd June 2016, eh?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited August 2017

    "In 2015 the taxpayers of Portugal received from the European Union 81 euros per head over what they contributed. Since its accession to the EU the country has received from the European Union EUR 64414 million over what it has contributed."

    That's why she is a fervent EU fan.

    ( From http://www.money-go-round.eu/Country.aspx?id=PT )
    I went to the Azores a few years back and was staggered to learn from the locals that not only did the mayor of the tiny village (by UK standards) we stayed in have a BMW 5 series as his official car but that it was bullet proofed to boot. And I thought hmmmmm....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Can it be that it was all so simple then, or has time rewritten every line?

    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008
    LOL at that short tweet containing all of the Leadsom cliches from her leadership campaign ("genuinely", "as a mum", "sunlit uplands").
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    edited August 2017
    You don't say

    "Modern slavery and human trafficking in the UK is "far more prevalent than previously thought," the National Crime Agency has said.

    The NCA said there were more than 300 live policing operations currently, with cases affecting "every large town and city in the country".

    The agency estimated that there were tens of thousands of victims.

    It said previous estimates of 10,000-13,000 victims in the UK were found to be the "tip of the iceberg".

    "The more we look, the more we find," the NCA's vulnerabilities director Will Kerr said.

    Mr Kerr said he had been shocked by what he had seen during this year's intensive efforts to break up gangs, with almost every major operation triggering even more investigations.

    He warned that trafficking into modern slavery was now so widespread that ordinary people would be unwittingly coming into contact with victims every day

    Modern slaves in the UK, often said to be hiding in plain sight, are working in nail bars, construction sites, brothels, cannabis farms and in agriculture.

    Traffickers are using the internet to lure their victims with hollow promises of jobs, education and even love.

    Albania, Nigeria, Vietnam, Romania and Poland are the most likely countries of origin, but some victims are from the UK itself"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40885353
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Mortimer said:

    I totally sympathise - global neo-liberalism has really helped the world as a whole, but shafted a lot of Brits, including many in my own family.

    But, despite that, I am convinced that government could do a lot more to fight inequality than confiscate the income of the wealthy. People are fully entitled to put their money where they like.
    You have to have money to have that problem. Too few have the sum total of fuck all. That's the bigger problem.
    The pendulum has swung too far. Policies that promote equality are overdue.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772

    Delurking to reply. I'm a bit of an aficionado at foreign bank accounts since my company does 80% of it's sales abroad!

    Different countries have different rules. If you want a US account then Citibank is the best one to use. You can go to any Citibank branch in the USA with a passport and a bank statement/utility bill for proof of address. You don't need a US address to do this. They'll set up the account there and then with online banking too. You can receive and send international payments using the online banking system.

    Even easier is Ireland. The best bank to go for in Ireland is Ulster Bank, because it is set up in Northern Ireland as well, so the staff are used to opening accounts for Brits in Ireland and vice versa. Just ring up their customer service (0345 366 5592 - I've got it in my phone!) and say you want to open an account in the Republic of Ireland. Or you can do it online. They'll send you a form to fill in, and then you need to go to a branch of RBS or Natwest in the UK with passport and proof of address. They will verify your identity and then send the application directly to Ireland via their internal post, so you don't even need to go to Ireland to do it. You don't need an Irish address either - all correspondence comes to the UK.

    Hope this helps!
    Many, many thanks.

    That sounds by far the easiest option and I'll give it a go.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Jonathan said:

    You have to have money to have that problem. Too few have the sum total of fuck all. That's the bigger problem.
    The pendulum has swung too far. Policies that promote equality are overdue.
    Policies that promote equality are policies that should seek to level up those at the bottom by education, training and providing equality of opportunity.

    Trying to do it by levelling down the successful to the lowest common denominator has failed every time it's ever been tried.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    edited August 2017
    Jonathan said:

    You have to have money to have that problem. Too few have the sum total of fuck all. That's the bigger problem.
    The pendulum has swung too far. Policies that promote equality are overdue.
    Blairites wouldn't be happy....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    Sandpit said:

    Policies that promote equality are policies that should seek to level up those at the bottom by education, training and providing equality of opportunity.

    Trying to do it by levelling down the successful to the lowest common denominator has failed every time it's ever been tried.
    Indeed. And 'things have gone too far' is always the reason hard leftists give for unjustifiable attacks on private property.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited August 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Policies that promote equality are policies that should seek to level up those at the bottom by education, training and providing equality of opportunity.

    Trying to do it by levelling down the successful to the lowest common denominator has failed every time it's ever been tried.
    Fine, but education and training cost money - where is the money coming from?

    Equality of opportunity will always be a pipe-dream while we have a two-tier education system*.

    (*7% of the population attend independent fee-paying schools. 71% of top military officers were educated privately; 74% of top judges working in the high court and appeals court were privately educated; 61% of the country’s top doctors were educated at independent schools. Data from the Sutton Trust.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2017

    Fine, but education and training cost money - where is the money coming from?

    Equality of opportunity will always be a pipe-dream while we have a two-tier education system*.

    (*7% of the population attend independent fee-paying schools. 71% of top military officers were educated privately; 74% of top judges working in the high court and appeals court were privately educated; 61% of the country’s top doctors were educated at independent schools. Data from the Sutton Trust.)
    Well start looking at why the private schools do so well, and seek to emulate them in the state sector.

    Ethos, uniform, discipline, parental engagement and most importantly aspiration all cost nothing. Neither does competition, stop giving prizes to everyone and get the disruptive kids of of everyone else's lessons. Let the kids see that if they work hard they can succeed.

    Spend the money you can find on vocational training, we shouldn't need to have half the plumbers in Poland come to the UK!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,552
    Sandpit said:

    Well start looking at why the private schools do so well, and seek to emulate them in the state sector.

    Ethos, uniform, discipline, parental engagement and most importantly aspiration all cost nothing. Neither does competition, stop giving prizes to everyone and get the disruptive kids of of everyone else's lessons. Let the kids see that if they work hard they can succeed.

    Spend the money you can find on vocational training, we shouldn't need to have half the plumbers in Poland come to the UK!
    But halving the average class size would cost a lot (and even that wouldn't match the private sector).
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    edited August 2017
    Penddu said:

    I have dormant accounts in Dubai and Shanghai if you want to deposit some cash in them....

    I keep getting emails from from obliging gentlemen in Lagos, which I can forward....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    welshowl said:

    Well I 99.9% agree but why risk the 0.1%? The shadow chancellor was lobbing Mao's little red book around the despatch box not that long ago.

    I have other reasons anyway personally, but even if I didn't, putting some assets beyond the ability of Corbyn, McDonnell, and the likes of Milne to screw them up seems like a sound insurance policy.
    Whenever there's a prospect of a Labour government the "We're all dooooomed" merchants start spouting off with ridiculous end-of-the-world-is-nigh worries.

    Property ownership in this country has survived substantially unscathed through: the Black Death, the War of the Roses, the Reformation, the Civil War and Commonwealth, the Glorious Revolution, the Industrial and Agricultrural revolutions, the Napoleonic wars, the Great Reform Act, two World Wars. Indeed you have to go back to the Norman Conquest for the last significant property appropriation.

    So I think the scaremongering at the thought of a Labour government is somewhat overdone.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939


    Ethos, uniform, discipline, parental engagement and most importantly aspiration all cost nothing. Neither does competition, stop giving prizes to everyone and get the disruptive kids of of everyone else's lessons. Let the kids see that if they work hard they can succeed.

    Spend the money you can find on vocational training, we shouldn't need to have half the plumbers in Poland come to the UK!

    A fine sentiment. However, adult education (including vocational) has been decimated. The route my Father took of 1 CSE followed by an apprenticeship with day release, followed by discovering he quite enjoyed the day release therefore continuing to study on his own time and eventually teaching the very same courses he once took as a full-time (ie paid with pension provision, sickness and holiday pay) member of staff at an FE college would cost a small fortune now with a zero hours term-by-term contract without holiday pay at the end of it.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    @Benpointer

    Ok. No probs.

    But I am not that trusting, so I will act accordingly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    But halving the average class size would cost a lot (and even that wouldn't match the private sector).
    Yes, I deliberately didn't mention class sizes (expensive) or grammar schools (too politically controversial). It's the things like enforcing discipline and teaching the kids manners that cost nothing and make a massive difference to how they turn out.

    My education system would probably have reverse grammar schools, take out the bottom 20% and educate them separately. Teach them to be plumbers and electricians before they become gang members and prison inmates.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Sandpit said:

    Well start looking at why the private schools do so well, and seek to emulate them in the state sector.

    Ethos, uniform, discipline, parental engagement and most importantly aspiration all cost nothing. Neither does competition, stop giving prizes to everyone and get the disruptive kids of of everyone else's lessons. Let the kids see that if they work hard they can succeed.

    Spend the money you can find on vocational training, we shouldn't need to have half the plumbers in Poland come to the UK!
    You are being beyond ridiculous Sandpit.

    State education in 2015–16 cost round £5,600 per student, The average private school fees according to the Telegraph are £14,102. So private education costs nearly 3 times as much.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    welshowl said:

    @Benpointer

    Ok. No probs.

    But I am not that trusting, so I will act accordingly.

    Well I hope you don't lose too much in transfer costs and exchange rate fluctuations :wink:
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    All this chatter about off shore bank accounts, reminded me of this book I came across when on a project, worth having a look at, if only for the ideas: I think you might like this book – "Store Silver Guard Gold: How and Where to Store and Secure Your Gold and Silver from Thieves, Frivolous Lawsuits, Government Confiscation and a Zombie Apocalypse" by Hunter Riley III.

    Start reading it for free: http://amzn.eu/1CxUhiT
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Well I hope you don't lose too much in transfer costs and exchange rate fluctuations :wink:
    I am sure not, mostly because I will have foreign expenditure. And yes I will pay whatever tax is due in the UK. However, it's the peace of mind of having at least something out of reach of destructive forces as I wouldn't trust Corbyn to run a whelk stall.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939


    My education system would probably have reverse grammar schools, take out the bottom 20% and educate them separately. Teach them to be plumbers and electricians before they become gang members and prison inmates.

    Again. A fine sentiment. However, the bottom 20% would have difficulty with the basic skills needed to qualify as electricians or plumbers (or else they wouldn't be the bottom 20%). This begins at Primary School and before. Which is why closing Sure Starts was such a rank short term false economy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    OchEye said:

    All this chatter about off shore bank accounts, reminded me of this book I came across when on a project, worth having a look at, if only for the ideas: I think you might like this book – "Store Silver Guard Gold: How and Where to Store and Secure Your Gold and Silver from Thieves, Frivolous Lawsuits, Government Confiscation and a Zombie Apocalypse" by Hunter Riley III.

    Start reading it for free: http://amzn.eu/1CxUhiT

    No mention of protecting it from the Grim Reaper - am I to assume we just can't take it with us when we die? :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    You are being beyond ridiculous Sandpit.

    State education in 2015–16 cost round £5,600 per student, The average private school fees according to the Telegraph are £14,102. So private education costs nearly 3 times as much.
    Day school is about £11,000, and a fair amount of that goes on an arms race of facilities like swimming pools which aren't really necessary.

    Note that nothing I've suggested so far costs any money at all. Letting the kids walk around with their shirt hanging out and tie undone, and giving them prizes just for taking part, makes a bloody big difference to how they behave as adults. Letting lessons be constantly disrupted by a couple of troublemakers has a detrimental effect on the rest of the class too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited August 2017
    dixiedean said:


    Again. A fine sentiment. However, the bottom 20% would have difficulty with the basic skills needed to qualify as electricians or plumbers (or else they wouldn't be the bottom 20%). This begins at Primary School and before. Which is why closing Sure Starts was such a rank short term false economy.
    Indeed, you seem to have a very low opinion of plumbers and electricians Sandpit. Both are highly skilled jobs, which is why plumbers and electricians are always in demand.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981


    Whenever there's a prospect of a Labour government the "We're all dooooomed" merchants start spouting off with ridiculous end-of-the-world-is-nigh worries.

    Property ownership in this country has survived substantially unscathed through: the Black Death, the War of the Roses, the Reformation, the Civil War and Commonwealth, the Glorious Revolution, the Industrial and Agricultrural revolutions, the Napoleonic wars, the Great Reform Act, two World Wars. Indeed you have to go back to the Norman Conquest for the last significant property appropriation.

    So I think the scaremongering at the thought of a Labour government is somewhat overdone.

    What a preposterous claim, most of us find that HMRC appropriate our property on a depressingly regular basis. You are perhaps talking about real property (irrelevantly, since the discussion is about money in bank accounts), but even then the claim is simply incorrect, overlooking as it does events of 1536-41.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    I seem to have a serious blockquote problem tonight. Sorry @Sandpit and @Benpointer but it isn't clear who is saying what. My bad! A day in the Sun, too much booze and a lack of basic skills are to blame!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Indeed, you seem to have a very low opinion of plumbers and electricians Sandpit. Both are highly skilled jobs, which is why plumbers and electricians are always in demand.
    I have a very high opinion of skilled tradesmen, which is why we should be encouraging and preparing more kids to take apprenticeships in the trades. I have a very low opinion of the state education system though.

    Right now the school system teaches to the test and tries to get 50% into university - without caring much what happens to the other 50% except that they get 5 A-C grades to keep the schools position in the league table.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited August 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What a preposterous claim, most of us find that HMRC appropriate our property on a depressingly regular basis. You are perhaps talking about real property (irrelevantly, since the discussion is about money in bank accounts), but even then the claim is simply incorrect, overlooking as it does events of 1536-41.
    Tax is not appropriation - it's the fee we all pay for living in a country that protects, cares for and educates it citizens, whilst maintaining national infrastructure!

    I'll give you the Dissolution - I forgot about that one (albeit still 500 years ago and it was focused on one section of society).

    I bet that it was a Labour government in power then probably!

    (PS I wasn't just talking about real estate.)
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    No mention of protecting it from the Grim Reaper - am I to assume we just can't take it with us when we die? :lol:
    Never heard of Zombie accounts?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    dixiedean said:

    I seem to have a serious blockquote problem tonight. Sorry @Sandpit and @Benpointer but it isn't clear who is saying what. My bad! A day in the Sun, too much booze and a lack of basic skills are to blame!

    Ha ha, I think the thread got too long and bits started getting truncated. Probably a good time to shake hands and adjourn for the evening.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    dixiedean said:

    I seem to have a serious blockquote problem tonight. Sorry @Sandpit and @Benpointer but it isn't clear who is saying what. My bad! A day in the Sun, too much booze and a lack of basic skills are to blame!

    Don't worry about it - the character limit on this forum is a right PITA. The time to worry is when you end up arguing with yourself due to someone's muddling of blockquotes!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Sandpit said:

    Ha ha, I think the thread got too long and bits started getting truncated. Probably a good time to shake hands and adjourn for the evening.
    Indeed. A civilised discussion at least, if at times befuddling...Good Night!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    dixiedean said:

    Indeed. A civilised discussion at least, if at times befuddling...Good Night!
    Agreed - to be continued another day maybe :smile:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Don't worry about it - the character limit on this forum is a right PITA. The time to worry is when you end up arguing with yourself due to someone's muddling of blockquotes!
    Will sign off now before I start arguing with myself then! Good job my other half is a psychotherapist....or did I just convince myself she is? :) Good Night!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    OchEye said:

    Never heard of Zombie accounts?
    Very good. :lol:

    Personally my other half and I aim to spend all our wealth (such as it is) before we die!
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Very good. :lol:

    Personally my other half and I aim to spend all our wealth (such as it is) before we die!
    Same here, but I got sidetracked in my research and I started reading up on gold and how to keep it. Believe it or not, it is actually silver which is more interesting investment wise, for two reasons, one being availability of sources and supply, the second being that there are more processes that use and require silver, than gold or platinum. Governments realise this and most tax the sale of silver, but not gold, to restrict hoarding of silver.
  • Losses at Snapchat’s parent company have nearly quadrupled in the last three months, the company announced, sending the social media company’s shares to a new low in after hours trading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/aug/10/snapchat-shares-fall-losses-wall-street

    Twiter 2.0....I hope nobody has a lot of their stock.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    I see the front pages are dominated by the new party to stop Brexit poisoned eggs story.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Sandpit said:


    Day school is about £11,000, and a fair amount of that goes on an arms race of facilities like swimming pools which aren't really necessary.

    Note that nothing I've suggested so far costs any money at all. Letting the kids walk around with their shirt hanging out and tie undone, and giving them prizes just for taking part, makes a bloody big difference to how they behave as adults. Letting lessons be constantly disrupted by a couple of troublemakers has a detrimental effect on the rest of the class too.

    Not in London it isn't!

    Before we moved to LA, it cost a combined £36,000 for my son (7) and daughter (9) to go to private prep schools in London.

    My son was at North London's most prestigious boys prep school, where half the class ends up at St Paul's or Westminster. (Schools which, in turn, get 50% of their pupils into Oxbridge.) And although he performed academically well (top 1% of readers for children his age), he wasn't enormously happy with the uniform and the discipline.

    My daughter was at the school that I wished I had been as a child. It was both incredibly relaxed (no uniform, the teachers brought their dogs into school, and it was all first names terms with the teachers), and incredibly academic. The children, from when they first turned up 6/7 were expected to behave as adults. They - not the parents - were responsible for getting homework done*. The lessons were genuinely interesting (they mummified a rat in science class), and they worked at incredibly high level. The classes were small, and the kids all helped each other out in a way that simply never happened at my comprehensive school.

    The experience of my daughter has taught me that disciple and uniforms are not the only way to go. If we hadn't moved to LA, I would certainly have moved my son there.

    Because not only are the academic results amazing, but the children genuinely love it there. I used to hate the end of holidays. She loved the end of them, and getting back to school.

    I know I am incredibly fortunate to be well off and therefore able to send my children to great schools. But I would scrimp and save and do without to send my children to places where they would be happy and excel. If anyone is flush, has young children and lives in North London, then I couldn't recommend my daughter's school highly enough,

    * We received weekly - or even more often - emails from my son's school about homework. What he should be doing. What he hadn't worked hard enough on. We received nothing from my daughter's school; there were no parent's evenings, and reports on childrens' progress was almost unknown. At my son's school, we were the client. At my daughter's, she was the client.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,552
    @Benpointer

    There was massive appropriation and redistribution of private property in the Wars of the Roses. Some of it due to death, some due to forfeiture and some due to naked theft by the powerful. By the end of it, the two largest estates - York, Warwick - had been seized by the crown and many others - Buckingham, Devon, Norfolk, Pembroke, Northumberland to name a few - were under the king's direct control short of full attainder, although all had passed through the hands of at least one king on the way.

    If you don't believe me re theft, google 'Duke of Gloucester Countess of Oxford.'

    As for enclosure, while the title may not have officially changed the access to it did, very much to the detriment of ordinary people.
This discussion has been closed.