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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/27/obamacare-repeal-republicans-status-241025
Impeachment really depends on the Mueller investigation coming up with something damning, I think. My gut feeling is the odds are just about right for now - it's entirely possible that Trump will go, but not yet overwhelmingly likely.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/03/french-think-brits-have-second-sexiest-accent-italians/
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40820863
This is all moving rather faster than I had thought it would...
The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?
" As Trump’s rating slump even more it’s now odds-on that he won’t not serve a full term"
Shouldn't that be 'will not' or 'won't?'
As others have posted, Trump’s fights with the media, while fascinating for the interested, are of less importance to those outside.
I fear that caution on Dem prospects is indicated.
Exactly when he would go is more difficult to judge, but he's such a mercurial and unpredictable character that anything from tomorrow to never is perfectly plausible. The 9.2 on Betfair for him to go this year is tempting and I'm on to small stakes.
On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?
But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
Mr. Punter, some way from Manchester myself but for what it's worth it's currently overcast. Looks like showers rather than tipping it down.
Also, is 'layed' the proper spelling (like the odd-looking 'bettor') or is it 'laid'?
I too have a little cash on Trump leaving this year - trading bet only.
http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1
Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.
On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/03/what-is-a-grand-jury-trump-russia-mueller-investigation-215458?lo=ap_d1
What we do know is that there is a very capable and experienced team of prosecutors quite determined to take this investigation as far as they can. If any of the Trump periphery are vulnerable to criminal charges (Manafort or Flynn are possibilities), then there is a strong possibility they will squeal.
I'm not sure there is a proper spelling but I prefer layed in order to stress the betting sense. I'll change if it bothers people.
Not sure about bettor. Again it makes sense to distinguish the betting meaning but the word looks and sounds ugly to me, so I'll need a bit more persuasion on that one. I think in practice I use 'punters' to avoid the ugly 'bettors' and the possibly confusing 'betters'.
What do you prefer?
For clarification, how many times has he played golf in the last 6 months?
Not many students in Worthing voting in August methinks. Something else is going on when solid blue Worthing and Purple Margate are going red.
I believe it comes to 35 golfing days, 20% of his days as president.
When you add in the 5 hours of TV each day, it doesn't leave much work time, which is probably a good thing.
I don't know - Peter the Better must have its attractions ?
The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.
So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
Bear in mind only the rich (who may live in Worthing) and families with children (who may not) go on holiday in August. Those who have to watch spending more carefully and are not tied to school holidays prefer September and October.
A round of golf, assuming he plays 18, takes 3-4 hours. How on earth does that equate to 35 golfing days?
You simply make things up to suit your agenda.
Also remember a very small swing to the Conservatives would deliver them a comfortable majority. Although much has been made of Labour gains in the south, what was much less noticed was how many formerly safe seats in the north, like Newcastle under Lyme, have become very marginal.
The Tories have found £1 billion for Ulster.Where's the cash for Margate and Worthing?
Feel free to counter with all his achievements from the first six months.
Take a look at @NateSilver538's Tweet: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/892823216808394753?s=09
At 1.07% per month linear decline his popularity crosses zero on the y axis in 36 months!
Donald managed to drag himself off the golf course I see
https://getcrookedmedia.com/here-have-a-podcast-78ee56b5a323
Former Obama White House insiders, partisan, sometimes very funny, informative about the realities of the US political process.
For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.
I'd suggest he's pretty good at delegation and covering his own backside.
England's batting problem lies at two and three.
Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
On your other point, in a normal side, would you not want your best batsman at 3? And wouldn't that be Root? England's greatest batsman would surely be Hammond, who spent most of his career at 3. Williamson and Smith both bat at three. Kohli doesn't but frankly I don't rate him as highly as those three, or as Pujara. That's who Root should be looking to emulate.
Yet he doesn't want it and the management don't seem to want to push him. Why not? Temperament? Or his conversion rate? Or a mixture?
I agree that 'bettor' is bit clunky. Punter, or gambler, looks and sounds better. Or the politically correct 'high risk, high return financial forecaster', of course.
'Layed' doesn't bother me I was just curious, as the nun said to the hockey team.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d
I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.
There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.
Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
And 'high risk, high return financial forecaster' of course.
It is interesting to have one Trumpite on PB, no matter how delusional though.
A young nun goes to her abbess and says, 'Reverend Mother, I am pregnant.'
'Quick,' says the abbess, 'suck these five lemons.'
'Will that help?' asks the nun.
'No,' replied the abbess, 'but with luck it will wipe that stupid grin off your face.'
With that, work beckons. I trust everyone has a productive morning.
Bit like Trump!
https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/893161565293334528
For the umpteenth time I can't stand the man, I'm simply pointing out the nonsense of your posts on here. As with the referendum, it is your view of Trump that is deluded - he was elected, get over it.
A similar linear percentage point decrease in support for Brexit, by contrast, would see an interesting next few years over here.
Tom Westley has earned a run at three but there are two other Essex batsmen I would have picked ahead of him - Daniel Lawrence and Nick Browne. I'd have picked Buttler ahead of all three though.
Bayliss apparently prefers Root at three, which makes you wonder what kind of authority he wields if the player doesn't start in the position the manager wants him. But then Bayliss doesn't have much credibility after picking Malan ahead of Buttler/Lawrence/Browne...and Stoneham and numerous others with apparently better claims. He also picked Dawson ahead of The Office Cat, which must have been a close one. (And although Toblerone saved the blushes with a good performance at the Oval he was a fairly questionable choice too.)
The important thing is we drop Bayliss before the squad for Australia is picked. A defeat at Manchester might help.
It is more than interesting to see how West Virginia has moved away from the Democrats since 1996 when Clinton won it. It was a marginal in 2000 with Bush winning 52 to 46 but last year Trump won 69 to 26. I suspect there are other states which have made the opposite journey.
Justice himself was a Republican until re-registering as a Democrat in early 2015 and only just won the gubernatorial election. The cynic might say he saw the way the wind had blown in his state and figured he'd never beat another Republican so he'd have to become one (again and of course he's not the first to have ratted and then re-ratted).
That said, he does sound a conservative Democrat which rather like the notion of a liberal Republican, seems an anachronism regrettably.
Now, both groups are voting in line with their values.
http://www.opentraintimes.com/maps/signalling/wat
See Japan doing trade deal with EU for instance.
EU could become the benchmark for trade deals/standards/regulations etc.
On a more serious note, perhaps this is an indication that the middle classes (income bracket?) feel more remote from the "ruling classes" and that Tezza's JAM speech didn't hit home.
Its a mystery why TMay's inspiring rhetoric and actions didn't hit home, isn't it??
The complacency and delusion among Tories...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/893241526133903360
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/893348273183903744
And Brexit isn't going to become more popular either.
Offington definitely the pick of the wards in the seat.