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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After what’s been described as Trump’s worst week yet the betting stays with the president surviving
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I’d be a lot more hopeful if the Dems showed any signs of learning from last year, though. At the moment the ‘opposition’ seems to be largely principled Republicans and the discontented on the streets.
Where’s the successor to the junior Senator from Illinois?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/28/they-just-dont-get-it-video-upset-corbyn-deniers-labour-momentum?CMP=fb_gu
The Republicans seem to have no appetite for positively opposing the president. So betting on him surviving looks like the value bet.
F1: the group C market is down from Ladbrokes. I checked and my initial bet/tip (Vandoorne to beat the Toro Rossos and Grosjean at 10) remains in place, odds unchanged.
Overnight I did wonder if they'd accidentally got Kvyat and Vandoorne's odds mixed up, something I never considered when I was actually looking at the bet.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/07/28/seth-moulton-congressman-run-president-2020-profile-215428
The video makes a good job of showing the self-serving hypocrisies that the elderly use to justify themselves. It doesn't try to show why Jeremy Corbyn offers any kind of answer for the young, who have hypocrisies of their own.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-approval-rating-11-us-states-he-won-presidential-election-inauguration-republican-a7862386.html
I cannot help but wonder what is needed to get it down to zero.
The Scottish Government do unquestionably have the power to provide direct financial assistance to WASPI women in Scotland. The FOI also shows that the SNP Social Security Minister Jeane Freeman acknowledges and accepts that these powers exist. The SNP have been playing fast and loose with the truth on this issue, at times outright lying, and leading Scottish voters, WASPI women and the Scottish Parliament on a merry dance. This blog explains how and why.
http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.id/2017/07/the-great-waspi-cover-up-part-2-smoking.html
I dream of living in a house. It'd be like a palace to me. Dwelling in a rotting shed, and grateful for it!
Tying up money for 3 years is another matter...
Rare to have F1 bets that last a long time. I remember, before Vettel won his first title, Coulthard being asked by someone who'd backed him to win five titles whether it'd come off. Coulthard thought it would. However, that must be 8 years or so ago, so even at reasonable odds, that's quite a long time to keep money waiting on a bet.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/jul/25/leasehold-houses-and-the-ground-rent-scandal-all-you-need-to-know
My brother sold it and bought a 3 bed house on Wimbledon Common, worth probably £1.5 million now. A nice spot, but no way could he get a mortgage on anything like it were he 30 again.
While the facts in the video are wrong the truth is there, albeit a little exaggerated.
As long as you were prepared to do hard physical labour, turn up on time and do what you're told. Those jobs are gone now. I had a summer job loading 1cwt bags of fertilizer onto tractor trailers without the benefit of pallets or forklift trucks. Manual handling regulations would no longer allow it.
But aren't Labour now the party of the ABC1s anyway - particularly in London?
While some areas have seen big increases in value - none have seen multiples like Momentum quote - and the areas where you could buy a house for £20,000 in 1980 aren't them.....in one area - where I bought, Momentum are out by a factor of ten
Anyway - good of Momentum to highlight the iniquities of nepotism, eh Messer's Corbyn & McDonnell?
https://meanjin.com.au/essays/in-defence-of-the-bad-white-working-class/
Corbyn doesn't speak the language of Labour's Old base, as well as scaring the Tory horses. It is what gives me confidence he will never be PM.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/29/eu-workers-fifth-labour-force-18-sectors-britain-economy
Con take Bolsover? Or Lab take Canterbury and Kensington? Which was the truth?
Mind, he’s regarded in the family as having, as the saying goes, more front than Blackpool!
He should be 66% to go the distance.
In that context, the quinoa eating virtue signallers cannot win.
On topic, I'm finding America confusing at the moment. I agree with OGH this will be seen as a missed opportunity by Republicans in years to come. The mid terms next year will be illuminating and I wonder how many Democrats are considering a Presidential bid for 2020.
Off topic - property in the south east, the veritable golden egg for a generation or more. I bought a 2-bedroom flat brand new off plan in 1996 for £58,500 and sold in 2005 for £145,000.
Two generations of Londoners have done phenomenally well out of property (including former council house owners who bought theirs for a song in the early 80s and still sing the praises of the Blessed Margaret (and rightly so)).
That certainty of a strong return on asset value also allowed people to keep spending and consuming and not worrying too much about pensions and savings. Why bother saving ? The house value is going up 10% year on year. I can take the profit when I downsize and that will be my retirement capital.
Others saw property as an investment - why bother with stocks and shares ? Property is a guaranteed winner - buy a property, rent it out, take the profit and use that. To be fair, that won't be so easy from now on but as a method of making money, property in London is absurdly egalitarian. Whether you have a small flat in Barking or a five bedroom house in Beckenham, no matter. It's not money in the bank, it IS the bank.
They haven't gone. My nephew's nineteen, and despite getting good grades, decided not to go to university and instead enter the wonderful world of work. He got a job fairly immediately, and he appears to be loving it. He's travelling all over the country, and the company's keen for him to gain qualifications as he works.
I've said passim that I think the idea that we have to go to university to succeed is a fallacy that hurts our youngsters. I also think it's a fallacy that there are not opportunities for youngsters who eschew university or higher education. But if you don't go to university, you need to ensure you have life skills to compensate.
An anecdote: the interview was in a light industrial building, and he was the third scheduled for that day. The first was seen waiting outside, and did not even go in through the anonymous-looking exterior door (with just a sign above it). The second made it in through the door, but waited in an unstaffed waiting area without ringing the bell on the desk to summon anyone to come!
Comparing with 2010 is comparing to the pre Corbyn era.
Mortimer's Australian article is well worth reading. It touches on many of the class and race interplay issues that I was discussing with Islam yesterday afternoon. It also shows how Australia is changing. There is no going back to the Anglosphere so beloved of the PB league of Empire Loyalists.
Too many people have too strong a vested interest in the status quo to do anything serious about the situation. Pledges to build thousands of new homes will regrettably remain pledges.
Housing isn't just about houses (there's a surprise). It's about defining and shaping communities. In my part of London, it's all about flats on brownfield sites. Build 500 flats - easy - but that means at least an extra 1000 - 1200 people moving in to an area. That beings pressure on transport, medical services and a range of other infrastructural aspects little of which is picked up by the developer through the absurd Section 106 arrangements.
Further out, new estates of houses (not all the same one hopes but a mix of dwellings to reflect the myriad familial structures from single people to six bedroom houses) creating new communities requiring roads, shops, schools, doctors and the like but how much green do we want to lose ? Should the priorities not be the developer land-banks and public sector unused land ? I don't know.
It shouldn't be about Bellway or Persimmon coining it in either - building has to involve both freehold and leasehold - I know Conservatives love the idea of home ownership but there's an argument for a strong private rental sector but that needs proper regulation as we're seeing with the evolution of the new slums in parts of London with the kind of overcrowding in properties we thought had been left behind in the 1930s.
the Empire Loyalists are long gone
today the largest self deception is the those Europhiles who think they can just walk back in and take up from where they left.
The UK is damaged goods, suspect in every way, and can never be at the heart of Europe.
stop kidding yourself
Some harmless fun for Sunday morning. I managed 11 out of 16. I'm sure other PBers will knock that for six.
There is much of the country (some of it places Labour must win, like North Kent) which has no time for Corbyn.
https://www.mountanvil.com/our-london-homes/hampstead-manor/
https://www.barratthomes.co.uk/new-homes/greater-london/h418401-kidderpore-green/
Then there are three developments on Finchley Road - one at the bottom of Hermitage Lane, and another two by Heath Drive.
That's a staggering amount of new development, albeit in an area well served by public transport (buses down Finchley Road), and mostly to people without children (as these are largely two bedroom flats).
If you want to make some money, I would own restaurant, bar and retail space on the Finchley Road around the Childs Hill area. A lot of new (well off) people coming to an area with relatively few amenities like that. (West Hampstead is five to ten minute walk, and Hampstead Village is more like 15.)
You have me wrong though, I back hard Brexit and just want some decent planning for it. We are woefully unprepared for its consequences, hence all the talk of prolonged transition periods. For example:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/29/uk-border-customs-chaos-hit-hard-brexit
Play nicely people, off out shortly.
Apologies isam! but a certain irony...
The only possibility could be if something comes out of Trump's financial dealings with Russia or Russian bankers which apparently Mueller is broadening his investigation into.
We all save in the Bank of Bricks and Mortar - and why not, it's been by far the best place to put money for a long, long time.
Unfortunately, this has had two terrible consequences. Firstly, there are millions of people who can no longer afford to buy their own property. Secondly, there is a generation of people in their late 40s, 50s and 60s, who's entire wealth is tied up in their property.
If we bring housing prices down to help the former group, we destroy the savings of the older one. If housing prices remain high, then the oldies continue to benefit at the expense of the young.
Managing this transition will be extremely challenging.
CDU 40%
SPD 23%
Afd 9%
Greens, FDP, Linke all on 8%
so much for Martin Schulz, it remains to be seen in Merkel can avoid screwing up a CDU led government again
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/f-a-z-wahlbarometer-so-wollen-die-deutschen-waehlen-14406977.html
However, the really amusing irony of that video is that somebody as limited in intellect and imagination as Corbyn would certainly never have got into politics, never mind Parliament, had his father not been (a) very wealthy and (b) a big man in the trade union movement.
On that subject: Could somebody please screenshot that and email it to CCO with a huge caption underneath 'For Trump, read Corbyn?' It would I think be helpful if they grasped this simple message, assuming they are capable of doing so.
I hope to be back part-time tomorrow but I have a busy summer ahead of me so I won't (or at least, shouldn't) be commenting regularly. I hope everyone is enjoying the weather and remembering the more rain we get the less at risk of drought we are...
Another is left wing and unionist, and they now have a viable party.
The third is everyone who supports independence, who will do well on 35% + of the vote, but whose support is spread quite evenly, and who will suffer if their vote dips much below that level.
I bought my first house in West London for £135k in 1990. Today , it will be close to £1.2m, I guess.
The building societies and banks were appalling in the provision of 100% (and beyond) mortgages in the 1980s and with very low interest rates, a new generation has been lured into over borrowing and when rates go back up, there will be a lot of pain.
But I would bet that - given stock markets have barely budged in the last 20 years, while house prices (especially in London) have gone through the roof - there has been a big swing from stock market to housing.
A more jowly than remembered John Major did me in.
It is really, really tiring hearing the same criticisms of planning rehearsed endlessly, by otherwise educated and intelligent people.
Planning has become a whipping boy for thirty plus years of public policy failure
It is a myth that you can 'relax planning' and solve everything, but it is a convenient answer. The government have, to all extents and purposes, actually relaxed planning rules almost as much as it is concievably possibly to do. Under the current rules, if a local authority don't allocate enough land or deliver enough housing, then a developer can in theory build almost anywhere as long as it is not a green belt or a protected landscape.
The trouble is that when you look at these sites in the open countryside they are completely unsuitable for housebuilding and there are very good reasons why they should not be developed. The principal reason is that there is no infrastructure to support new communities and the occupants of new houses will simply have to drive miles and miles to access even the most basic services, nevermind schools, hospitals etc. People will of course move to these new houses, but this just creates congestion on countryside roads that are often unsafe and were never designed to take large amounts of traffic. The benefits of the housing being provided is nearly always outweighed by harm to the wider community, when you get beyond the bluster of the argument that the need to provide more housing overrides everything else.
When you talk to serious people in the development industry it becomes apparent that the fundamental problem is actually to do with how infrastructure is delivered. Since the government privatised large parts of infrastructure delivery from the 1980's onwards, the cost of providing new infrastructure necessary to support new development has increased to the point where it is just not viable for many new developments. In many cases the total value of the new housing being built is not sufficient to support the infrastructure necessary to deliver it. And then you have the problem that land ownership is heavily fragmented and the associated wrangling over who has to foot the bill for the supporting infrastructure.
There have been many attempts to solve this problem but they have been mostly unsuccessful. Normally by the government declaring some sort of initiative to build new towns/ eco towns/ garden suburbs etc etc, and then banging peoples heads together to make the project work. But they haven't really changed the underlying flaws of the system or delivered much.
It makes little sense that we have this problem, whereas no other country in northern Europe does.
Major's jowls threw me too....
This has led to the problem that the wealth of people is now more dependent upon the performance of property prices than the performance of business. Consequently there's a lot less interest in economic and business issues - notice how little they were mentioned in the election and how wealth creation is of no interest to Corbyn.
I can remember in the 1990s whenever a news program said "the biggest financial asset people have is their home" my dad would say "no its not, its their pension".
That will be apply to a lot less people now than then.
Of course, that means he only has to survive until 1st January 2020, which would be a term just under 3 years at that point.
There's a very interesting discussion of the soundtrack here:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/dunkirk-music-christopher-nolan-hans-zimmer-2017-7
- I noticed something going on with the music, but didn't grasp the exact intention (which is probably intended to be subconscious).
Right now, a good chunk of the population think the under 40s have a raw deal, whilst the over 60s have a pretty good one.
I think they have a point.
Well, for that I can. A very important purchase where the issues are usually well explained, and relatively concise. But most "terms and conditions" you are supposed to read, prior to agreeing to them, are dozens and dozens of pages long.
No-one ever reads them.
Anyway, I do have Castle Dancer. And the genetic research laboratory beneath it.
Time for me to be off. Somewhat nervous of the race.
It's all my fault but I am going to carry on anyway.
On the plus side I don't have to do that quiz again until 2022 now!