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To you lurkers, why not delurk. Lurking, is Another World to posting, I, Believe, your contributions will be enhance PB, Hopefully this will Galvanise you to delurk.
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The less Lib Dem MPs there are the less chance there is of a hung parliament.
If Farage implodes in a Robert Kilroy-Silk like manner or if the lib dems ditch the toxic calamity Clegg then everything is up for grabs.
The two biggest and most meaningful events that have clearly shifted VI in this parliament are Calamity Clegg utterly tanking the lib dem brand in 2010 and Osbrowne's omnishambles.
The first saw labour shoot up in the polls with disaffected lib dems jumping on board labour and the second marked the real start of kippers rise in the polls with disaffected tories jumping on board the kippers.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Mick_Pork said:
Some basic points for those who still don't get it.
The less Lib Dem MPs there are the less chance there is of a hung parliament.
If Farage implodes in a Robert Kilroy-Silk like manner or if the lib dems ditch the toxic calamity Clegg then everything is up for grabs.
The two biggest and most meaningful events that have clearly shifting VI in this parliament are Calamity Clegg utterly tanking the lib dem brand in 2010 and Osbrowne's omnishambles.
The first saw labour shoot up in the polls and the second marked the start of kippers rise in the polls.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
The utter consistency of the LD drop after 2010 (that it happened also immediately is proof that it had little to do with any actions they did - although that did reinforce it later that year - and more just the principle of coalition with the Tories, proving the party was very significantly made up of labour-lites) is another major indication that even if they do rebound quiet a bit in 2015 come crunch time at election day, as many suspect as do I to some degree, it is unlikely to be by enough, as there surely would have been at least some sustained recovered since hitting that polling floor almost 3 years ago.
Ditching Clegg is a necessity. Not because the rest are not almost all as culpable in making the coalition decision in the first place, it is not as though he did not get his party's backing, but it is the sort of superficial change that might be just enough to convince LD-Lab switchers in a Con-LD marginal to hold their noses and vote LD again.
Man, the Tories were really riding high up to 2012. Feels like a long time ago now.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25018895
Am I to believe that Labourlist actually believed that old chestnut then? Someone actually believed a politician wasn't just talking nonsense when they said that?
In fairness, and it is by no means an Ed M or Labour thing, I imagine the temptation to respond in kind is just too much for someone inclined to try and rise above it to handle, they will be accused of being weak, their base support wants to see those sorts of attacks. But if anyone actually believed a new leader seriously thought they were going to usher in a new era of politics and standard debating tactics, I question what other silly things they believed.
I have been expecting the Tories to claw back a good chunk of UKIP votes by 2015 by hammering the wasted vote/ letting in Labour line. However I am beginning to wonder how successful that line will be if UKIP tops the polls in the Euros in 2014. The press will be full of it if it happens and for lots of people who don't pay much attention to politics I think it is going to make it very difficult for the Tories to make the wasted vote argument a few months later.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/20/michael-gove-regulators-free-schools?CMP=twt_fd
This reminds me of an interesting thing about China which is that it's okay for tourists to use toilets in places like hotels without having to avail themselves of any of the other facilities. You can just walk in, use the toilet, and walk out again, and they don't mind. I don't know if this also applies to other countries in the region like Thailand.
Clegg is as responsible for the coalition as Cammie is. They ARE the coalition. ALL the actions taken after the election are down to his final say so on the coalition negotiations and such things as the disasterous tuition fees debacle. The polling is also crystal clear on which lib dem the public thinks is most toxic and that would be Clegg.
Almost everyone expects them to go up a bit before the election just as everyone expects the kippers to fall a bit. The question is by how much and ditching Clegg is the only option the lib dems have left to possibly mitigate their loss of MPs.
I agree to some extent that all the talk about 2010 lib dems is mostly overblown spin by those who wish to paint the lib dems as more relevant than they actually are, but a new labour friendly leader with a honeymoon period could change VI quite a bit for the lib dems, even if only for a short time since the lib dem brand has been almost completely trashed by Clegg by now.
CONTINUED.. since the comments appear to be broken for some strange reason.
That match a few years ago when Ian Bell thought the ball was dead and then got run out before tea, but the opposition (I forget who) essentially withdrew their appeal over tea and biscuits and let him come back, shows a high level of gentlemanly sportmanship though, though that might have been taking it too far.
Indeed. "Vote lib dem to stop the tories getting in" is laughable now, particularly with Clegg at the helm. It'll still be hard to push even without him as leader but not nearly as much. Before Osbrowne's omnishambles labour and the tories were still extremely close with one crossover and one other very near crossover and change of lead. That's far harder to achieve with the kippers as high in the polling as they are. (and this is the kippers LOW point right now between last May's elections and the EU elections to come this May.
Bit lazy to say former Lib Dem voters were always just "Labour lite".
He might walk voluntarily, but I don't see it, for myself.
The Mirror:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-camerons-downing-street-twitter-2814113
Have they been proved right it was not worth it? Sure. But their instinctive and immediate move showed that they were much more anti-Tory than they were pro LD, because if they were were the latter more than the former, they would have stuck around at least awhile. The histrionic talk of betrayal and so on which sprung up immediately was, to my mind, more lazy and tribal behaviour than what I will admit was my own lazily inelegant summary of that movement immediately after the election.
Years on from then, and it still seems as though a significant portion of LDs wanted them to be Labour-lite and still do, despite protestations from the leadership for years that they are neither left nor right/a middle ground/soundbite of choice. They aren't interested in any accomodation with the Tories even under extreme and highly specific circumstances.
Those that might like such an accomodation (and be tempted by NIck Boles' idea of national liberals), or are willing to stomach it for a few gains, are the only ones left.
It's fine if the left of the party was opposed to any sort of agreement, but the immediacy of the action prior to any consequences which showed any gains would not offset the losses, shows it for lazy tribal behaviour.
@benedictbrogan: Labour's 'cover up' over Co-op bank chief. Tonight's @Telegraph front page http://t.co/YB6VS0jf0h
Although preferably not on the municipal golf course.
(*) I actually tried this once. I was going through my experimental camping phase and was trying to live as much as possible off the land. My snares caught nothing but air, and I cut myself making them. I nearly poisoned myself on some mushrooms, and whilst dealing with the results of that problem, leaves proved to be less robust than newspaper, and more smeary than 1980s-vintage BR toilet roll...
That'll be why that recent yougov showed the lib dems even more toxic than the tories.
*chortle*
It isn't likely to harm their chances for him to be gone, and it has potential for improving their chances, so he will be made to see the reason for going even if he might claim he wants to stick around until the election itself, and will stand down for the good of the party rather than be officially ousted I think.
Other SNP posters may be pleased to hear it since I never have and never will take bets on this site, for reasons which we can't of course go into.
Benedict Brogan @benedictbrogan 5m
Labour's 'cover up' over Co-op bank chief. Tonight's @Telegraph front page pic.twitter.com/YB6VS0jf0h
As calamity Clegg knows full well since he was one of the main lib dems briefing against Ming Campbell shortly before he went 'voluntarily'.
I hope Flowers can withstand the intense pressure that is heading his way,this could also go badly wrong.
On the Co-Op,Jayfdee junior was design manager for BAM,the main contractor for the new head office in Manchester,the build has won numerous awards,and is possibly the most environmentally friendly new build in the world. He had the pleasure of showing the Queen around part of the build,at its official opening last week.
Nick Clegg is completely safe as LD leader. For the past two conferences, journalists have gone fishing for leadership speculation and come away empty-handed. There is just no internal opposition looking to do anything before 2015. It's true some accept this with resignation rather than enthusiasm but that's how it is. My own view is that changing leader before 2015 would be suicide as we'd lose everyone who respected us for staying the course, whilethe detectors would almost all stick with Labour. Clegg could walk of course, but I've seen no signs that he's even considering this.
I should clarify that I actually feel Clegg gets more bad press than he deserves, I like him as a leader, I just think factors have combined to make him an unvaoidable drag on his party no matter what he does.
However regarding the toilet wars: I often walk in to the swankiest London hotels for a pee or heavier duty. No one asks me what I'm doing in the hotel, nor should they. The 5 star hotels are the best places to relieve yourself. Never decide to pee in a 3 star or lower hotel; they will always want to know what your doing in their illustrious building.
But if Salmond.... referendum aftermath win or lose..... *strokes chin*... I think you have the better value, but I'll go for a small charity bet at evens?
Sorry if that doesn't float your boat, you might get a better offer!
Fair enough, almost every leader.
BTW infamous SLAB spinner and attack dog John "no-brainer" McTernan was one of the most hilariously incompetent factors in Gillard's disasterous leadership 'fightback'.
As for the politics - I think Clegg's fate will be decided by events completely out of his control, Salmond's fate will be decided by Salmond himself whatever happens. Hey ho. Come on Alex!
Sorry, I couldn't resist...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwW3ytid4DA
*chortle*
Who?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vy1ueZf1WMQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfM25e0eiaU
In part this may be because politics counted more than competence at the Co-op.
It’s no coincidence the MPs found guilty of fiddling are all Labour
The party may take the moral high ground, but lying and cheating are deep in its DNA
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10462871/Its-no-coincidence-the-MPs-found-guilty-of-fiddling-are-all-Labour.html
I can't imagine I'll vote LD, but they are much better placed for the long term than they were five years ago.
'Arbuckle Junction' - That point in the task where you realise it's going to be a lot harder than you thought.
Shrine for Tendulkar.
A large part of their strategy has been built on banker bashing.
Nor are the faults of HSBC highlighted small. They are extraordinarily serious.
Though if Cameron really wants to posture on the morality and the private lives of those close to a party and it's leadership then that is entirely his choice.
I feel sorry for them, they were totally unprepared for the sheer ruthlesness and nastiness of the Tory machine, but what's done is done. They have a massive job on their hands post 2015, whatever happens.
And I quite like Nick Clegg, feel sorry for him. He hasn't been helped by those that have been completely assimilated by The Tory, we all know who they are.
Unspoofable...
There's a connection, and there are certainly questions that Labour may be asked and will need to answer, but one man's fallibility (no not Ed!) doesn't count.
edit: perhaps a revision is in order along the lines of "one man's fallibility when not in high political office".
The Rev Flowers seems to want to cover all bases. Is he a Blairite like tim?
Any news yet on why he left Rochdale?
Flowers left Rochdale under a cloud when very serious accusations were levelled at him by local Conservative activists
http://www.rochdaleonline.co.uk/news-features/2/news-headlines/83797/coop-bank-to-face-independent-inquiry-over-flowers
Is there some part of "drug and porn claims", "nightmare" or "disbelief" that eludes you?
The only reason there is any story whatsoever is because of what Flowers has been exposed to have done in his private life. So if Cammie wants to make this all about Flowers and his links to labour and it's leadership then he'd best be prepared for the consequences.
Answers aren't required - just the repetition of those basics when they are doing their usual holier-than-thou charade.
http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/sdsds/story-20100231-detail/story.html
Who needs the spare room subsidy?