politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as C

alex. said:

Are there any Labour supporters prepared to tentatively foresee that they have created a bit of a problem for themselves with their pledge abolishing tuition fees (and potentially outstanding student debt)? Does anyone actually believe such a policy is sustainable in the long run, and if not how are the more sensible elements going to climb back from it?

Mortimer said:

alex. said:

Are there any Labour supporters prepared to tentatively foresee that they have created a bit of a problem for themselves with their pledge abolishing tuition fees (and potentially outstanding student debt)? Does anyone actually believe such a policy is sustainable in the long run, and if not how are the more sensible elements going to climb back from it?

It's also one of those nightmare policy that gets hugely more expensive every year that passes...

RobD said:

murali_s said:

Spreadsheet Phil is the only sane person on that list. Sad times for the Tory party and this country.

Not a fun of Davidson?

murali_s said:

RobD said:

murali_s said:

Spreadsheet Phil is the only sane person on that list. Sad times for the Tory party and this country.

Not a fun of Davidson?

I would be if she actually split from the Tories. Instead she has to put with the Tory party allying itself with the DUP lunatics.

As a progressive myself, this is all going to plan...

You should finally throw the towel in and join in the light!

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/880188222659334146

Embarrassing that you should post that. They cheered because the government's majority had been confirmed.

murali_s said:

"Young Conservative" is a term I find quite baffling. Any misguided fool brave enough to admit to being one?

RobD said:

murali_s said:

"Young Conservative" is a term I find quite baffling. Any misguided fool brave enough to admit to being one?

Yes, how dare people have views different from my own.

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/880188222659334146

BJO. Astroturfing here makes no sense. You're not going to change anyone's mind or shame anyone.

As an aside, I keep seeing these sanctimonious 'Tories voted against nice fluffy things thus they must be NASTY NASTY NASTY'. Doesn't it insult the intelligence of the intended audience, and miss the point that to win an election they need to get Tory switchers...

Tories are nasty! That's old news. Horrible mean people. Next...

nielh said:

RobD said:

nielh said:

alex. said:

Are there any Labour supporters prepared to tentatively foresee that they have created a bit of a problem for themselves with their pledge abolishing tuition fees (and potentially outstanding student debt)? Does anyone actually believe such a policy is sustainable in the long run, and if not how are the more sensible elements going to climb back from it?

It is no different to the triple lock, or the winter fuel allowance.
You can't just benefit one section of society with free stuff. It needs to be distributed fairly, ie no tuition fees for university students. Free childcare for working famillies. Free adult education, etc etc.
Everyone's a winner under Labour!
Can they climb back from it? No way. They will probably extend the policy to forgive all student debt.

They were already talking about that during the campaign. What a monumental waste of money, especially as they were not proposing to reverse any of the benefits cuts.

Yeah but it surely got them over the line in places like Reading and Canterbury. They are essentially playing the tories at their own game.

murali_s said:

RobD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/880188222659334146

BJO. Astroturfing here makes no sense. You're not going to change anyone's mind or shame anyone.

As an aside, I keep seeing these sanctimonious 'Tories voted against nice fluffy things thus they must be NASTY NASTY NASTY'. Doesn't it insult the intelligence of the intended audience, and miss the point that to win an election they need to get Tory switchers...

Tories are nasty! That's old news. Horrible mean people. Next...

yawn.

A step up from calling them ugly mother-f****s though.

Thanks to the Tory party, this country is on the edge of a precipice!

You may have been one of the sane Tories who voted to Remain but your party is taking the country down with them.

The Tory party - we'all put our interest ahead of the national interest every single time.

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/880188222659334146

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, Bobajob "As someone mentioned downthread, it is a geographical nonsense - it isn't even coterminous with the ancient region of Ulster. It was simply drawn up to create a Protestant safe space in the north. That religion is dwindling in adherents, so if the border had to be drawn today it would likely look pretty different."

Not really. Northern Ireland includes six of the nine Ulster counties, so the border follows county boundaries. As I understand it, if only the Protestant-majority counties had been included the region was thought to be too small to be viable, and Ulster as a whole apparently had a Catholic-majority at the time. Thus six counties as the largest area with a Protestant-majority. This would still be the same today, just about.

williamglenn said:

Chris said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, Bobajob "As someone mentioned downthread, it is a geographical nonsense - it isn't even coterminous with the ancient region of Ulster. It was simply drawn up to create a Protestant safe space in the north. That religion is dwindling in adherents, so if the border had to be drawn today it would likely look pretty different."

Not really. Northern Ireland includes six of the nine Ulster counties, so the border follows county boundaries. As I understand it, if only the Protestant-majority counties had been included the region was thought to be too small to be viable, and Ulster as a whole apparently had a Catholic-majority at the time. Thus six counties as the largest area with a Protestant-majority. This would still be the same today, just about.

Hmm. Wikipedia says "Fermanagh is one of four counties of Northern Ireland to have a majority of its population from a Catholic background, according to the 2011 census."

At the height of the Troubles the British government considered redrawing the border to give majority Catholic areas to the Irish republic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/2601577.stm

Chris said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, Bobajob "As someone mentioned downthread, it is a geographical nonsense - it isn't even coterminous with the ancient region of Ulster. It was simply drawn up to create a Protestant safe space in the north. That religion is dwindling in adherents, so if the border had to be drawn today it would likely look pretty different."

Not really. Northern Ireland includes six of the nine Ulster counties, so the border follows county boundaries. As I understand it, if only the Protestant-majority counties had been included the region was thought to be too small to be viable, and Ulster as a whole apparently had a Catholic-majority at the time. Thus six counties as the largest area with a Protestant-majority. This would still be the same today, just about.

Hmm. Wikipedia says "Fermanagh is one of four counties of Northern Ireland to have a majority of its population from a Catholic background, according to the 2011 census."

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

JackW said:

Good Morning To All Complete Pricks Of PB Worldwide :

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

DecrepitJohnL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

It is a troubling case but if she is writing to MPs, plural, surely at least all but one of them will reply by directing her to her own MP? Isn't that how the system works?

It is also slightly puzzling that doctors appear not to have corrected what sounds like a botched circumcision (which itself sounds like it should be barely harder than cutting toenails, so was the operation actually done by a doctor in the first place?).

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

It is a troubling case but if she is writing to MPs, plural, surely at least all but one of them will reply by directing her to her own MP? Isn't that how the system works?

It is also slightly puzzling that doctors appear not to have corrected what sounds like a botched circumcision (which itself sounds like it should be barely harder than cutting toenails, so was the operation actually done by a doctor in the first place?).

"barely harder than cutting toenails"

Are you serious? IMO male circumcision for religious reasons is child abuse.

Leaving that question aside, my comment was that it does not seem (to this non-expert) a technically difficult procedure. If separating conjoined twins is at one end of the scale of surgical complexity, and cutting toenails is at the other, then surely male circumcision is close to the latter end. Yet from the description in the story, it sounds like something went wrong.

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

It is a troubling case but if she is writing to MPs, plural, surely at least all but one of them will reply by directing her to her own MP? Isn't that how the system works?

It is also slightly puzzling that doctors appear not to have corrected what sounds like a botched circumcision (which itself sounds like it should be barely harder than cutting toenails, so was the operation actually done by a doctor in the first place?).

"barely harder than cutting toenails"

Are you serious? IMO male circumcision for religious reasons is child abuse.

Leaving that question aside, my comment was that it does not seem (to this non-expert) a technically difficult procedure. If separating conjoined twins is at one end of the scale of surgical complexity, and cutting toenails is at the other, then surely male circumcision is close to the latter end. Yet from the description in the story, it sounds like something went wrong.

I don't know if you're circumcised or not, but if you are not, I would submit you'd be much more concerned about getting a circumcision that you would having your toenails cut.

And things often go wrong with circumcisions.

As a Jewish friend of mine at Uni said to me: "What the hell gave my parents the right to do that to me?"

You are talking about whether it is desirable or is even abuse. I am not. Putting all moral, religious and aesthetic issues to one side, and even the legal ones about parental consent, it still sounds from the story that this comparatively simple operation was botched (and did not seem to have been corrected afterwards).

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

It is a troubling case but if she is writing to MPs, plural, surely at least all but one of them will reply by directing her to her own MP? Isn't that how the system works?

It is also slightly puzzling that doctors appear not to have corrected what sounds like a botched circumcision (which itself sounds like it should be barely harder than cutting toenails, so was the operation actually done by a doctor in the first place?).

"barely harder than cutting toenails"

Are you serious? IMO male circumcision for religious reasons is child abuse.

Leaving that question aside, my comment was that it does not seem (to this non-expert) a technically difficult procedure. If separating conjoined twins is at one end of the scale of surgical complexity, and cutting toenails is at the other, then surely male circumcision is close to the latter end. Yet from the description in the story, it sounds like something went wrong.

I don't know if you're circumcised or not, but if you are not, I would submit you'd be much more concerned about getting a circumcision that you would having your toenails cut.

And things often go wrong with circumcisions.

As a Jewish friend of mine at Uni said to me: "What the hell gave my parents the right to do that to me?"

You are talking about whether it is desirable or is even abuse. I am not. Putting all moral, religious and aesthetic issues to one side, and even the legal ones about parental consent, it still sounds from the story that this comparatively simple operation was botched (and did not seem to have been corrected afterwards).

So you're ignoring all the glaring, major issues with this case?

Okkkay ...

You made the comparison with cutting toenails. That argument is just so patently ridiculous I'm amazed you're not ashamed to write it.

Charles said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, Bobajob "As someone mentioned downthread, it is a geographical nonsense - it isn't even coterminous with the ancient region of Ulster. It was simply drawn up to create a Protestant safe space in the north. That religion is dwindling in adherents, so if the border had to be drawn today it would likely look pretty different."

Not really. Northern Ireland includes six of the nine Ulster counties, so the border follows county boundaries. As I understand it, if only the Protestant-majority counties had been included the region was thought to be too small to be viable, and Ulster as a whole apparently had a Catholic-majority at the time. Thus six counties as the largest area with a Protestant-majority. This would still be the same today, just about.

The Six Counties in Northern Ireland are those which voted to remain part of the UK in the referendum that followed the Buckingham Palace Accords.

While Carson and Craig's strengths were in Protestantanism, Carson's reach was much greater - he came from an old Southern family, had been MP for TCD for many years and served in the UK Cabinet before resigning to found the Ulster Unionists.

Carson was the Ruth Davidson of his day. Craig the Farage. Unfortunately Craig won out in the internal struggle, and the next 50 years are a stain on the Unionist soul.

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

It is a troubling case but if she is writing to MPs, plural, surely at least all but one of them will reply by directing her to her own MP? Isn't that how the system works?

It is also slightly puzzlce?).

"barely harder than cutting toenails"

Are you serious? IMO male circumcision for religious reasons is child abuse.

Leaving that question aside, my comment was that it does not seem (to this non-expert) a technically difficult procedure. If separating conjoined twins is at one end of the scale of surgical complexity, and cutting toenails is at the other, then surely male circumcision is close to the latter end. Yet from the description in the story, it sounds like something went wrong.

I don't know if you're circumcised or not, but if you are not, I would submit you'd be much more concerned about getting a circumcision that you would having your toenails cut.

And things often go wrong with circumcisions.

As a Jewish friend of mine at Uni said to me: "What the hell gave my parents the right to do that to me?"

You are talkin

So you're ignoring all the glaring, major issues with this case?

Okkkay ...

You made the comparison with cutting toenails. That argument is just so patently ridiculous I'm amazed you're not ashamed to write it.

Cutting toenails is easy. So is circumcision. For centuries the operation has been carried out by laymen. The comparison stands. Your kneejerk reaction to the most obvious scandal has led you to miss the other point -- that the circumcision seems not even to have been done correctly.

JackW said:

Good Morning To All Complete Pricks Of PB Worldwide :

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

Good Morning To All Complete Pricks Of PB Worldwide :

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

Is it bad of me to find this story funny?

Charles said:

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

Good Morning To All Complete Pricks Of PB Worldwide :

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

Is it bad of me to find this story funny?

Do you usually find GBH cases funny?

Sean_F said:

Charles said:

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

Good Morning To All Complete Pricks Of PB Worldwide :

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

Is it bad of me to find this story funny?

Do you usually find GBH cases funny?

You're right. It's childish.

DavidL said:

Still surprised that Hunt does not figure on that list. He is the nearest thing to a Cameroon left in government.

Whatever happened to the junior doctor dispute? Was there a settlement that the membership accepted or has it just fizzled out?

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/880188222659334146

BJO. Astroturfing here makes no sense. You're not going to change anyone's mind or shame anyone.

As an aside, I keep seeing these sanctimonious 'Tories voted against nice fluffy things thus they must be NASTY NASTY NASTY'. Doesn't it insult the intelligence of the intended audience, and miss the point that to win an election they need to get Tory switchers...

DavidL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

DavidL said:

Still surprised that Hunt does not figure on that list. He is the nearest thing to a Cameroon left in government.

Whatever happened to the junior doctor dispute? Was there a settlement that the membership accepted or has it just fizzled out?

The NHS seems to be in a continuous state of low-level crisis. That there is no political issue, especially after Lansley's reforms, may be a tribute to Hunt but at best he has not found a solution to anything except bad headlines. Hunt needs to swap jobs and hope the next Health Secretary does worse -- otherwise Labour's next election campaign writes itself.

That is inevitable given that as an Institution it had got very used to spending rising at 3%+ in real terms. It has now had 7 years of very moderate growth, usually less than 1%.

Given that it is estimated that demand on NHS services grows about 4% a year it is hardly surprising that there is a low level crisis. In fact I think that Hunt or the NHS generally has done remarkably well in coping as well as they have.

Compared to the lunacy of Lansley and the very considerable expense that his reforms incurred things have been allowed to carry on. Stress is inevitable and will increase but if the first rule of doctors is to do no harm then it broadly seems to me that Hunt has achieved that and a little bit more.

SouthamObserver said:

Davis is totally winging it ...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/880312768842407936

CarlottaVance said:

Conservative backbencher Marcus Fysh (Yeovil) asked Theresa May: ‘Is she aware of the crisis in Venezuela and is it an example of how an experiment in socialist revolution can go horribly wrong?'

Mr Corbyn, from a sedentary position, appeared to mutter: ‘What a complete w*****.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4649052/The-PM-calm-Hammond-developed-twitch.html

RoyalBlue said:

SouthamObserver said:

Davis is totally winging it ...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/880312768842407936

This is a nonsense article. Precisely how it will work will not be known until the deal is agreed with the EU. It's not in Davis' power to decide on his own.

RoyalBlue said:

SouthamObserver said:

Davis is totally winging it ...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/880312768842407936

This is a nonsense article. Precisely how it will work will not be known until the deal is agreed with the EU. It's not in Davis' power to decide on his own.

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

Davis is totally winging it ...

So far he is not up to the task. An ambassador from a senior member state, who has been briefed on how Davis is viewed by the EU now, has a crushing verdict: “He is part of the problem. He doesn’t know the dossiers well. His style is arrogant, he is full of bluster.” A European insider says Davis appears to have an inflated, jingoistic faith in Britain’s influence which is not going to play out well. “He’s going to be humiliated again and again by the EU, as he was in the first week. How will someone as vain as Davis explain that?.” Even a senior Tory peer and Brexiteer is worried by his performance so far: “I am, frankly, scared. I’d be surprised if it all went right now.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/davis-is-a-dangerous-driver-of-the-brexit-bus-xshs7h7rj

AA Gill was a seer...

Brexit is the fond belief that Britain is worse now than at some point in the foggy past where we achieved peak Blighty We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.

Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”

http://dndlaw.com/aa-gill-on-brexit/

SouthamObserver said:

Davis is totally winging it ...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/880312768842407936

GeoffM said:

RoyalBlue said:

SouthamObserver said:

Davis is totally winging it ...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/880312768842407936

This is a nonsense article. Precisely how it will work will not be known until the deal is agreed with the EU. It's not in Davis' power to decide on his own.

The "Institute for Government" is a lefty David Sainsbury funded front group, so this is safe to file away as partisan.

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

It is a troubling case but if she is writing to MPs, plural, surely at least all but one of them will reply by directing her to her own MP? Isn't that how the system works?

Nick might know more, but I've read stories in the past where an MP will get involved even if the complainant isn't in his/her constituency, especially when they are campaigning on an issue. I suppose it'd be polite to tell the constituent's MP you're getting involved, though.

It just shows the woman's desperation to get justice.

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

'My son was circumcised without my consent'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-40420511

This should make for an interesting and potentially useful case.

"I wrote to MPs and they basically shoved me off. Everybody you speak to it's like speaking to a brick wall."

She should name and shame the MPs.

It is a troubling case but if she is writing to MPs, plural, surely at least all but one of them will reply by directing her to her own MP? Isn't that how the system works?

It is also slightly puzzling that doctors appear not to have corrected what sounds like a botched circumcision (which itself sounds like it should be barely harder than cutting toenails, so was the operation actually done by a doctor in the first place?).

"barely harder than cutting toenails"

Are you serious? IMO male circumcision for religious reasons is child abuse.

Leaving that question aside, my comment was that it does not seem (to this non-expert) a technically difficult procedure. If separating conjoined twins is at one end of the scale of surgical complexity, and cutting toenails is at the other, then surely male circumcision is close to the latter end. Yet from the description in the story, it sounds like something went wrong.

I don't know if you're circumcised or not, but if you are not, I would submit you'd be much more concerned about getting a circumcision that you would having your toenails cut.

And things often go wrong with circumcisions.

As a Jewish friend of mine at Uni said to me: "What the hell gave my parents the right to do that to me?"

You are talking about whether it is desirable or is even abuse. I am not. Putting all moral, religious and aesthetic issues to one side, and even the legal ones about parental consent, it still sounds from the story that this comparatively simple operation was botched (and did not seem to have been corrected afterwards).