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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Events are boxing May in while Corbyn sits pretty
Only a fool would try to predict how this parliament will play out after all the extraordinary political upheavals and upsets this decade so far. So here goes.
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Little England speaks.
I'm being quite pedantic here, but I think Rees Mogg represents quite a different strand of the Tory right to Cash-Redwood.
Rees Mogg is an old fashioned High Tory whose beliefs bear a distinct resemblance to those of the pre-1832, or even 18th century Tory Party (at least in terms of attitude if not policy). That he is a Roman Catholic only strengthens the point - if you were to call him a crypto-Jacobite he probably wouldn't deny it.
Cash and Redwood are the ideological descendants of mid-19th century free trade, laissez faire Whigs/Liberals. I think Cash wrote a biography of Richard Cobden recently.
Or to put it simply: Rees-Mogg is a Cavalier, the other two are Roundheads.
Now, it's very possible - indeed quite likely - that Con will allow May to continue as PM for quite some time so as to avoid changing leader during the Brexit negotiations.
But surely there is almost no chance that Con would allow May to then go on to fight the next GE as leader.
The one hope for the Tories would be that the government falls and is seen to fall because the opposition parties are trying to frustrate Brexit. Unless public opinion changes significantly between now and then (not impossible), that could be a powerful card for the Conservative Party to play.
If there wasn't time to go to a membership ballot then so be it, the MPs would keep it to themselves.
If they couldn't agree on a single candidate they would suspend the rules as an exceptional situation so that the MPs voted on the final 2.
However I guess under the above scenario it might well be possible that May would continue as PM during the campaign - enabling Corbyn to be next PM if he won.
There are three scenarios you need to think about:
1. The May government falls and Corbyn forms one without a new election.
2. Another early election is called, whether (a) deliberately by May, (b) engineered by Labour or (c) accidentally as a result of events running out of control, with Corbyn and May still in place, where Labour picks up at least 10 seats.
3. The parliament runs its full five years without a change of either leader, and Corbyn wins.
The first two options are the most likely.
In terms of Option 1) if it's going to happen without the QS passing next week then Corbyn is available at 21-1 on the other market.
If the QS passes then my own view is that if the Govt later falls (at any time, under any scenario) Con will dump May as leader on the spot (literally that day) and choose a new leader - they won't let May fight another GE as leader under any circumstances.
However, as posted below, I appreciate it's very possible that in that scenario May would continue as PM for the campaign enabling Corbyn to be next PM if he wins.
The value can also be captured by laying the combo of Boris, DD & Ruthy at equivalent odds of little over evens on BF;
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
Although oldies t/o falling slightly probably cost the tories a majority. But the seats labour gained are consistent with a big increase in youth turnout *and* professionals turning to labour. I would say labour gained about 6 seats on youth turnout in the south outside London alone......
https://medium.com/@psurridge/britains-divide-diversity-key-to-turnout-rises-a51626d5c969
Increase in turnout:
Canterbury Up 8.7% (4 unis)
Portsmouth South up 5.4% (Portsmouth Uni)
Brighton Kempton up ~6% ( surrey,brighton, suxxex Unis nearby)
Kensington up 6.8% (it's london it has a shit load of graduates and diversity).
Battersea up 4% (again London).
Cambridge up almost 10%
Bristol West up 5%
May has been in Brussels fighting UKplcs corner while Juncker&Co are still trying to stick the boot in over our intention to Brexit. Camden Council is this evening evacuatiing residents from Highrise blocks with next to no warnng, and they now have angry and frustrated residents bedding down on mattresses in community halls. Meanwhile Corbyn is in his comfort zone at Glastonbury hearing the adoring chants of support from the newly devoted in his usual comfort zone of a protest stage setting!
In the last week there have splits in the Labour party over Brexit, the Shadow Cabinet remains frighteningly short of any serious big hitters capable of inspiring any confidence should they have move into Government and take on a real Cabinet day job. And most importantly. Theresa May has in fact finally started to grow into the incredible tough full time job of Prime Minister while up against an almost insurmountable sea of negativity from the media, opposition and the EU. As I said earlier, Corbyn has been at Glastonbury and anywhere else there has been a photo op, but the political optics from anyone watching from outside the bubble of London has been far from as disasterous for May as is being peddled here.
And Radiohead are crap.
But anyone who can pull off the trick of transitioning from Cameron's man to May's choice to fly to Belfast to start negotiations with the DUP deserves to be reappraised. Next Tory PM anyone?
You could of course write to Shadsy at Ladbrokes. He's generally up for that sort of thing.
It's true that most want the Government to go ahead with it but that includes a chunk of people like me who are arch-Remainers but don't see any merit in trying to reverse back out of it now.
'I will show you fear in a handful of votes.'
[Apologies, TS.]
I am trying to think of what positives are in Theresa Mays/Tories favour at the moment and am struggling.
Can anyone help ?
Apart from the Tories are in Goverment and did win a million more votes than Labour in the election.
Negatives - economy now struggling at the same time as people now want end to austerity and real term increase in spending. Brexit negotiations will prove much more complex than the Tories might have wanted and Government does not have same ability as the EU to negotiate. Tories now have a trend in the country, paticularly those under 50, moving against them. If Labour does continue to attract support, then the Tories will want to avoid an early election. Theresa May has had a rocky few months, where her leadership is being questionned.
The situation may change once the EU deal is done (or not) as it removes such from the potential concerns of MPs and members. May might also take the opportunity to resign.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/jeremy-corbyn-can-rise-depths-cant-theresa-may/
A good man. He is the right wing equivalent of Corbyn. Only bright, godly and patriotic too.
That said, 6.8 may be value. Perhaps best assessed when I'm not sleepy
Utterly off-topic: but it's eminently possible Sir Edric's second book, a single story longer than the two contained in the first, will be out this year.
Corbyn's latest wacko plan is to pay teenagers £10 per hour. Its an obvious remarek that the tories spectacularly messed up the snap election campaign but they won't make the same mistake twice. The next election will again be on the economy and Corbyn's lala land promises will be examined in greater detail.
He's an egotistic campaigner who can promise the world but in a drawn out campaign he'll be exposed.
https://readyformogg.org
Maybe if he was PM, we could pass a law against Radiohead.
Mr. Observer, indeed. And Labour is even worse. May is lacklustre but she isn't far left.
The result of the election was not much short of a disaster for the country. A weak minority government with a discredited leader has been left with the task of negotiating Brexit. Personally, I think the wisdom of crowds theory took a bit of a knock. But the government will just have to do the best it can.
I also think you're in no position to question the intelligence of others when Corbyn is the leader of Labour. 2 Es FFS
David Cameron wanted to reassure EU citizens they would be allowed to stay. All his Cabinet agreed with that unilateral offer, except his Home Secretary, Mrs May, who insisted on blocking it.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-we-should-unilaterally-allow-eu-citizens-to-stay-a3571591.html
Today:
A Cameron government source confirmed the account but made clear the matter was not decided in a full Cabinet meeting but through discussion.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-cant-recollect-blocking-rights-for-eu-citizens-days-after-brexit-vote-a3571966.html
Yesterday's Guardian:
One former senior minister told the Guardian they didn’t recollect any discussion of the issue around the cabinet table at the time.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/brexit-may-blocked-unilateral-offer-for-eu-citizens-rights-last-june
How unlike George to paint a misleading picture of Mrs May.....
You'll be telling us next that Parliament should have ignored the referendum result.
British people don't like being taken for fools, that was the message sent to May and that will be the message sent to Corbyn when he strolls around the country handing out goodies.
It will hardly take a genius to destroy Corbyn's argument that paying kids £10 per hour is a sensible idea.
It is quite possible that next time around, the Tories get those 5% back on board - and Labour is stuffed, even by standing still. It could even be under a campaign conducted by May if the Govt. fell suddenly that meant Brexit was at risk. Labour would have looked to have put party politics ahead of national interest in breaking their pledge of ensuring Brexit would proceed. The Tories offer a no nonsense Manifesto, no frills, no increased taxes/no Dementia Tax/no Garden Tax (at least until Brexit is delivered), nothing to scare the Crumblies. May says "Mea culpa - I was badly advised" and the campaign is largely taken out of her hands by a committee of men in grey suits. And the campaign this time around focuses on demolishing Labour's economic offering. Who knows, Hammond might even make an appearance. Tories back with a majority.
The more so if in the coming weeks and months, May tries to seek a consensual cross-party approach to Brexit. With Juncker saying "it's a start, but you must give more, much more..." each time an issue is raised, the mood music for a "Fuck you, EU" Brexit where we simply walk will be out there. Is Corbyn really going to stick up for Brussels? "Well, they have a point you know"....nah!
I realise it might be thought I have spent far too much time in the Devon sun this week. But given that the perceived notion is that the skids are under the Tories and Corbyn just has to wait it out to become PM, the recent political experience shows us that perceived notions - Brexit, Trump, landslide - are invariably wrong of late.
I won't be touching PM Corbyn with a barge-pole. Neither I suspect will the voters, given an election where it seems a viable possibility. The last election was a free kick at the plump arse of the political classes. The next one will not be.
The essentials on the timing of the general election are three fold - The grim reaper, the DUP and X.
The grim reaper is outwith even the Chief Whip's control. Both the Callaghan and Major governments limped from majority to minority as mortality reaped a harvest of MP's. The Prime Minister doesn't even have the luxury of starting with a majority. On the credit side MP's are younger than decades ago so fewer by-elections will naturally occur.
Following death we have the fatal clutches of the DUP around the throat of the government. The DUP have the noose around the neck of the Tories and will pull the lever to the trap door of a general election when it suits them. As soon as the DUP have squeezed the life out of the May administration for ever piece of silver they can extract and the small of decay begins to hang in the air that may taint the DUP, then the end will be swift.
X is the known unknown. Politicians, pundits, business leaders and the concerned nation will be agog to hear the long term important overseas plans of a certain resident of Bedford. On OGH's holiday adventures rests the fate of the nation as the timing of the next general election awaits Mike Smithson's fateful decisions.
We may speculate on death and the DUP but the Smithson's ODE - Oracle of Dates of Elections - is not to be repudiated.
The government has to deliver a Brexit, frankly any Brexit now.
Those supporting the wisdom of crowds might make the case that the government will be pushed into a very soft Brexit by the government's weakness but personally I think a stronger government would have got there anyway for the reasons Hammond has articulated since the election and a weaker government is at greater risk of making an error that leads us where we don't want to go.
I thought she could stay for a couple of years until Brexit is negotiated, but unless there is a change of PM, there will be no deal. The sick man of Europe has little chance against the EU27, but with May at the helm, there is no chance of a decent Brexit settlement.
I would not be amazed to see something similar if we had a November election.
It is not enough to show your opponents are incompetent and/or dishonest and/or totally unable to keep the ludicrous promises they're making. That was proven up to the hilt against Corbyn, along with his links to mass murderers and Holocaust deniers. People knew but they didn't care. The key lesson of this election is that you have to offer something positive along with some razzmatazz to win. That should have been the lesson of Brexit and Trump too, but I will confess I missed it.
That's why there seems a frighteningly high chance Boris could be the next PM, something I would cheerfully have laughed at a mere 17 days ago.
Many Universities are already in serious financial trouble. There are e.g., redundancies announced at Univ of Manchester & Bangor just over the last few weeks.
The £9,000 a year fee is roughly what a course costs (Humanities courses are cheaper, Science & Engineering dearer) .
Before tuition fees were introduced by the Blair Gov’t, the state did not pay the true cost of a University course.
The Universities will be very worried if that situation returns. In fact, it will lead to much more substantial redundancies.
I personally think some rebalancing of the burden between state and individual on tuition fees is necessary, but the removal of tuition fees completely will result in impoverished universities.
I get why you want those who think this government stinks to be traitors who wish this country ill, but I'm afraid you do not own patriotism.
To quote Shelley (in one of his less good poems)
Stranger, as you pass this way,
Stop! To see a sight like this!
Stranger, here lies the grave of Castlereagh,
Therefore, Stranger, stop and piss.
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
May's team thought she was coasting to victory and wanted to claim all the credit.
Make it an election on the economy and she couldn't sack Hammond.
Boy was that a bad call
They then need to accept that why they failed at the GE is not just down to the PM and her campaign.
If they grapple and accept these things, they might recover.
More revealing still is the Brexiteers’ reliance on a kind of fatalistic compulsion. We have to go through with it, they say, we have no choice. Leave was “the people’s will”, so we’d better get our heads down and trudge through a process as hard as defeating the Nazis because it’s too late to back out.
But is it?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/23/brexit-stopped-answer-in-our-hands-leave
The media thought a Conservative landslide was on, and that prediction was not a story. Instead, they examined the Conservative manifesto's entrails in detail, whilst ignoring Labour's. After all, where was the story in dissecting a widely-derided no-hoper ?
That will not happen next time. Since Corbyn's Labour could form the next government, expect the media to concentrate fire on it much more.
TLDR; the media had as much to do with the Conservative's poor performance as May's bodged manifesto or Corbyn's overperformance.
It is clear the oldies stayed at home in protest at Mrs May.
If she's gone then all things being equal it should help the Tories.
Its clear that if the economy dives (it won't) then you and the other Remainers can smugly say I told you so.
My point is that the tories will not make the same mistake twice, they alienated their core vote and allowed Corbyn to hand out freebies. Next time they'll move the agenda back on to the economy and Corbyn will be exposed.
Do you think £10 per hour for kids is a good idea?