Mr. B2, I think it happens when the Queen's Speech passes, or not.
Mr Morris, That does appear to be their interpretation of "ministry formed", although I am not convinced it is the technically correct one, which WP appears to be following.
BFex has thousands of pounds still on offer at 1.07-1.09 on TM being "PM after the election" and at the same odds on "Next Government" being a Tory minority one. Both bets appear to depend solely on every other party including the DUP not voting down the QS at a division next week (and in the case of the former bet TM not resigning instantly the QS is carried, and of the latter bet in not granting DUP a seat at the cabinet table), which would appear to be free money?
The Betfair rules are quiet clear.
Plus I know the person who set the rules, it is also to stop a squatter PM like Brown ballsing things up.
The rules say "This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election"
The bet stays "live" until the following is all satisfied...
In a situation of no overall control the Government in power before the General Election gets the first chance at creating a government. If they cannot do so, the Prime Minister will resign.
Does the Prime Minister have to resign? The Prime Minister only has to resign if it is clear that they cannot command a majority of the House of Commons on votes of confidence or supply. This would be the case if the incumbent government fails to make a deal with one or more of the other parties, or if they lose a confidence motion in the House of Commons. The first parliamentary test would be the vote on any amendment to the Queen’s Speech
Thanks. But where is this on BF please? It isn't in the rules for the bet.
This is the issue that has to be addressed. Previous govts have spent far more than it has collected, Greece is an extreme example. Until or unless somebody has the bollox to address it the poorest people (you know, the ones you care about most) will suffer most. Low wages, high rents, expensive houses, too many people live here earning too little money.
.
.
The answer is high savings rates.
Singapore's household savings ratio is 24%. Switzerland's is 19%. China is 28%. Hong Kong is 14%. Germany is 10%.
We're at 3%. Almost all recessions are a consequence of changes in the savings rate. And the long-term equilibrium level for the UK is about 11%. To go from 3% to 11% would involve a recession on the scale of 1990-1992. And economies typically overshoot. If we were to go to 15%, that would be the worst recession in the UK since the 1930s.
I understand the correlation, but don't get the causation. How does high savings rate help? Is it merely an indicator?
The answer is that it's a bit of both.
Firstly, the insatiable demand for consumer credit in the UK starves business of bank funding. Since leaving fund management, I've become CFO of a fast growing technology business. This is a company that will leave this year doing around $100m of revenue. Our bank is Barclays. Do you know how much overdraft they'll give us? £150,000. The banks would rather lend money to consumers with credit cards (interest rate 20+%) than to businesses.
Secondly, there is an almost perfect correlation between savings rates and current account deficits. In other words, a current account deficit is a consequence of insufficient saving. Now, in a perfect world, you let exports grow while leaving consumption flat (which is the old fashioned definition of austerity). In the real world, savings rates normally move all in a rush as consumers stop spending to shore up their personal balance sheets.
Your company could use leasing equipment and factoring invoices to borrow if it needs finance.
Yes, invoice based lending appears to be by far the most efficient way of funding working capital for a small business.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
This is the issue that has to be addressed. Previous govts have spent far more than it has collected, Greece is an extreme example. Until or unless somebody has the bollox to address it the poorest people (you know, the ones you care about most) will suffer most. Low wages, high rents, expensive houses, too many people live here earning too little money.
.
.
The answer is high savings rates.
Singapore's household savings ratio is 24%. Switzerland's is 19%. China is 28%. Hong Kong is 14%. Germany is 10%.
We're at 3%. Almost all recessions are a consequence of changes in the savings rate. And the long-term equilibrium level for the UK is about 11%. To go from 3% to 11% would involve a recession on the scale of 1990-1992. And economies typically overshoot. If we were to go to 15%, that would be the worst recession in the UK since the 1930s.
I understand the correlation, but don't get the causation. How does high savings rate help? Is it merely an indicator?
The answer is that it's a bit of both.
Firstly, the insatiable demand for consumer credit in the UK starves business of bank funding. Since leaving fund management, I've become CFO of a fast growing technology business. This is a company that will leave this year doing around $100m of revenue. Our bank is Barclays. Do you know how much overdraft they'll give us? £150,000. The banks would rather lend money to consumers with credit cards (interest rate 20+%) than to businesses.
Secondly, there is an almost perfect correlation between savings rates and current account deficits. In other words, a current account deficit is a consequence of insufficient saving. Now, in a perfect world, you let exports grow while leaving consumption flat (which is the old fashioned definition of austerity). In the real world, savings rates normally move all in a rush as consumers stop spending to shore up their personal balance sheets.
Your company could use leasing equipment and factoring invoices to borrow if it needs finance.
Yes, invoice based lending appears to be by far the most efficient way of funding working capital for a small business.
ID really only works if you have constant sales growth or a fairly flat sales
I have quite a bit of seasonality in my business and it can lead to quite tight cash squeezes
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
There had long been a Cash-Rees-Mogg-Redwoodite faction to the Cons. No BBG speech, no commitment to the referendum, no overall majority.
Now, was that an error?
As an, ahem, spirited Remainer, I can't say that it was. It was politics. Analagous to the LDs getting into bed with the Cons. They were in power and politics is all about being in power.
Of course the subsequent Remain campaign was cackhanded, but, as with the recent GE, the "situation: no change" message is not a very persuasive one when the people are restless.
FPT:
I'm being quite pedantic here, but I think Rees Mogg represents quite a different strand of the Tory right to Cash-Redwood.
Rees Mogg is an old fashioned High Tory whose beliefs bear a distinct resemblance to those of the pre-1832, or even 18th century Tory Party (at least in terms of attitude if not policy). That he is a Roman Catholic only strengthens the point - if you were to call him a crypto-Jacobite he probably wouldn't deny it.
Cash and Redwood are the ideological descendants of mid-19th century free trade, laissez faire Whigs/Liberals. I think Cash wrote a biography of Richard Cobden recently.
Or to put it simply: Rees-Mogg is a Cavalier, the other two are Roundheads.
I think they'd take umbrage at being called Roundheads. The Tory/Whig divide is closer.
Cash and Redwood aren't Whigs, they are Radicals. The Whigs are people like Paddy Mayhew and Micky Ancram.
Quite. And JRM is more Peel than Wellington. In fact every time I listen to him I think more of him.
A good man. He is the right wing equivalent of Corbyn. Only bright, godly and patriotic too.
Well-spoken does not equate to bright. Rees-Mogg speaks nonsense eloquently.
Urm, just no. He is one of the top minds in the commons. Unlike most of the others he can also communicate.
I also think you're in no position to question the intelligence of others when Corbyn is the leader of Labour. 2 Es FFS
Well at least he has two A levels - unlike Major and Callaghan. Moreover two Es from the mid-1960s would be the rquivalent of at least two Cs today!
Backed Bottas for pole at 4.6, hedged evens (Betfair), and Raikkonen each way at 9 (Ladbrokes).
With Hamilton and Vettel both having slightly wonky reliability and being off the pace a touch, and both Finns topping the P3 timesheet, the odds seemed a little too long.
There had long been a Cash-Rees-Mogg-Redwoodite faction to the Cons. No BBG speech, no commitment to the referendum, no overall majority.
Now, was that an error?
As an, ahem, spirited Remainer, I can't say that it was. It was politics. Analagous to the LDs getting into bed with the Cons. They were in power and politics is all about being in power.
Of course the subsequent Remain campaign was cackhanded, but, as with the recent GE, the "situation: no change" message is not a very persuasive one when the people are restless.
FPT:
I'm being quite pedantic here, but I think Rees Mogg represents quite a different strand of the Tory right to Cash-Redwood.
Rees Mogg is an old fashioned High Tory whose beliefs bear a distinct resemblance to those of the pre-1832, or even 18th century Tory Party (at least in terms of attitude if not policy). That he is a Roman Catholic only strengthens the point - if you were to call him a crypto-Jacobite he probably wouldn't deny it.
Cash and Redwood are the ideological descendants of mid-19th century free trade, laissez faire Whigs/Liberals. I think Cash wrote a biography of Richard Cobden recently.
Or to put it simply: Rees-Mogg is a Cavalier, the other two are Roundheads.
I think they'd take umbrage at being called Roundheads. The Tory/Whig divide is closer.
Cash and Redwood aren't Whigs, they are Radicals. The Whigs are people like Paddy Mayhew and Micky Ancram.
Quite. And JRM is more Peel than Wellington. In fact every time I listen to him I think more of him.
A good man. He is the right wing equivalent of Corbyn. Only bright, godly and patriotic too.
Well-spoken does not equate to bright. Rees-Mogg speaks nonsense eloquently.
Urm, just no. He is one of the top minds in the commons. Unlike most of the others he can also communicate.
I also think you're in no position to question the intelligence of others when Corbyn is the leader of Labour. 2 Es FFS
Well at least he has two A levels - unlike Major and Callaghan. Moreover two Es from the mid-1960s would be the rquivalent of at least two Cs today!
Two Cs today is still thick. I mean, FFS, most do 3+ A levels.
Corbyn's latest wacko plan is to pay teenagers £10 per hour. Its an obvious remarek that the tories spectacularly messed up the snap election campaign but they won't make the same mistake twice. The next election will again be on the economy and Corbyn's lala land promises will be examined in greater detail.
He's an egotistic campaigner who can promise the world but in a drawn out campaign he'll be exposed.
That depends on how the economy is performing.
I'm afraid that as much as you HOPE it dives there is a reality to be faced. We are drowning in debt and that situation must be addressed.
It will hardly take a genius to destroy Corbyn's argument that paying kids £10 per hour is a sensible idea.
The Debt/GDP ratio is no higher today than at the time of the 1964 election - and is lower than when the 1959 'you have never had it so good' election took place. At neither of those elections was the size of the National Debt a big campaign issue.
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
There had long been a Cash-Rees-Mogg-Redwoodite faction to the Cons. No BBG speech, no commitment to the referendum, no overall majority.
Now, was that an error?
As an, ahem, spirited Remainer, I can't say that it was. It was politics. Analagous to the LDs getting into bed with the Cons. They were in power and politics is all about being in power.
Of course the subsequent Remain campaign was cackhanded, but, as with the recent GE, the "situation: no change" message is not a very persuasive one when the people are restless.
FPT:
I'm being quite pedantic here, but I think Rees Mogg represents quite a different strand of the Tory right to Cash-Redwood.
Rees Mogg is an old fashioned High Tory whose beliefs bear a distinct resemblance to those of the pre-1832, or even 18th century Tory Party (at least in terms of attitude if not policy). That he is a Roman Catholic only strengthens the point - if you were to call him a crypto-Jacobite he probably wouldn't deny it.
Cash and Redwood are the ideological descendants of mid-19th century free trade, laissez faire Whigs/Liberals. I think Cash wrote a biography of Richard Cobden recently.
Or to put it simply: Rees-Mogg is a Cavalier, the other two are Roundheads.
I think they'd take umbrage at being called Roundheads. The Tory/Whig divide is closer.
Cash and Redwood aren't Whigs, they are Radicals. The Whigs are people like Paddy Mayhew and Micky Ancram.
Quite. And JRM is more Peel than Wellington. In fact every time I listen to him I think more of him.
A good man. He is the right wing equivalent of Corbyn. Only bright, godly and patriotic too.
Well-spoken does not equate to bright. Rees-Mogg speaks nonsense eloquently.
Urm, just no. He is one of the top minds in the commons. Unlike most of the others he can also communicate.
I also think you're in no position to question the intelligence of others when Corbyn is the leader of Labour. 2 Es FFS
Well at least he has two A levels - unlike Major and Callaghan. Moreover two Es from the mid-1960s would be the rquivalent of at least two Cs today!
Two Cs today is still thick. I mean, FFS, most do 3+ A levels.
Spoken like the elite that your team represents Morty
The Labour MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington blamed the disaster on Conservative attitudes to social housing.
"Grenfell House (sic) is not just an accident; Grenfell House is not just an unfortunate incident. Those hundreds of people that died is a direct consequence of Tory attitudes in social housing," she told a conference of the Labour Progress group.
So, Labour Camden Council evacuation of four tower blocks is.....
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
Street Spirit (Fade out) I find hauntingly beautiful. Only song of their's I really like.
There had long been a Cash-Rees-Mogg-Redwoodite faction to the Cons. No BBG speech, no commitment to the referendum, no overall majority.
Now, was that an error?
As an, ahem, spirited Remainer, I can't say that it was. It was politics. Analagous to the LDs getting into bed with the Cons. They were in power and politics is all about being in power.
Of course the subsequent Remain campaign was cackhanded, but, as with the recent GE, the "situation: no change" message is not a very persuasive one when the people are restless.
FPT:
I'm being quite pedantic here, but I think Rees Mogg represents quite a different strand of the Tory right to Cash-Redwood.
Rees Mogg is an old fashioned High Tory whose beliefs bear a distinct resemblance to those of the pre-1832, or even 18th century Tory Party (at least in terms of attitude if not policy). That he is a Roman Catholic only strengthens the point - if you were to call him a crypto-Jacobite he probably wouldn't deny it.
Cash and Redwood are the ideological descendants of mid-19th century free trade, laissez faire Whigs/Liberals. I think Cash wrote a biography of Richard Cobden recently.
Or to put it simply: Rees-Mogg is a Cavalier, the other two are Roundheads.
I think they'd take umbrage at being called Roundheads. The Tory/Whig divide is closer.
Cash and Redwood aren't Whigs, they are Radicals. The Whigs are people like Paddy Mayhew and Micky Ancram.
Quite. And JRM is more Peel than Wellington. In fact every time I listen to him I think more of him.
A good man. He is the right wing equivalent of Corbyn. Only bright, godly and patriotic too.
Well-spoken does not equate to bright. Rees-Mogg speaks nonsense eloquently.
Urm, just no. He is one of the top minds in the commons. Unlike most of the others he can also communicate.
I also think you're in no position to question the intelligence of others when Corbyn is the leader of Labour. 2 Es FFS
Well at least he has two A levels - unlike Major and Callaghan. Moreover two Es from the mid-1960s would be the rquivalent of at least two Cs today!
Two Cs today is still thick. I mean, FFS, most do 3+ A levels.
Spoken like the elite that your team represents Morty
LOL. Seriously though, the intellectual calibre of someone leading the opposition ought to be a tad higher than that of a medium thicko.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
It got pretty nasty on here last night. I had to ban Scott_P for anti-Radiohead comments.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
Because the people who don't vote are now saying they'll vote Corbyn, instead of Dont Know?
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
Because another large bunch of people's reasons for voting May were equally flimsy. A fair few probably saw her as strong and stable right up to 10 pm on polling day but now, not so much?
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
Street Spirit (Fade out) I find hauntingly beautiful. Only song of their's I really like.
Exit Music (For A Film) does similar things for me.
The Labour MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington blamed the disaster on Conservative attitudes to social housing.
"Grenfell House (sic) is not just an accident; Grenfell House is not just an unfortunate incident. Those hundreds of people that died is a direct consequence of Tory attitudes in social housing," she told a conference of the Labour Progress group.
So, Labour Camden Council evacuation of four tower blocks is.....
I'm not so sure of Scott - and TSE is more 'abject hero worship' than 'fandom'.....
I misread it as C P Snow, and was struggling to work out how a long dead author (and scientist and public servant) could possibly be fan of George Osborne.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
Not the only one, but the risks of Radiohead denial on PB are high...
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
(Snip)
Yeah, Radiohead are so last century. I mean, radio?
TVknee are much better, and if you really want to get down with the kids, MP4StreamingFoot or PrimeToe are really excellent, groovy bands.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
Street Spirit (Fade out) I find hauntingly beautiful. Only song of their's I really like.
Exit Music (For A Film) does similar things for me.
My hauntingly beautiful Radiohead song is Nude. My wife's is Daydreaming. (And that's a song I totally don't get.)
Just to be clear - the Camden Council towers evacuated were built under a Labour government, and have been managed by a Labour council for all but 4 of its 40 years.....any comments, Ms Abbott?
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
I'm not so sure of Scott - and TSE is more 'abject hero worship' than 'fandom'.....
I misread it as C P Snow, and was struggling to work out how a long dead author (and scientist and public servant) could possibly be fan of George Osborne.
But I guess he'll take all the support he can get
Me too! I was assuming some deep literary understanding of Corridors of Power that hadn't dawned on me when I read it a decade or so back....
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
I know from my old extended family that this is precisely what some people were doing.
When I warned them that he might get in - it was all "he'll never win" etc etc.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
Street Spirit (Fade out) I find hauntingly beautiful. Only song of their's I really like.
Exit Music (For A Film) does similar things for me.
My hauntingly beautiful Radiohead song is Nude. My wife's is Daydreaming. (And that's a song I totally don't get.)
WTO terms is the least of it. There is also the added time and expense of actually exporting to the EU to factor in; while if we just walk away, on 29th March 2019 the UK ceases to be party to any international agreement of which it is part thanks to its membership of the EU. That will affect industries as diverse as aviation and pharmaceuticals, while having absolutely zero impact on the EU27. No amount of swivel-eyed willy waving gets us round that fact.
It is completely untrue that a chaotic crash-out like that would have zero impact on the EU27. To take an obvious example, what on earth do you think would happen to the French, Spanish, Italian, Greek, Maltese, Cypriot and Czech tourist industries if UK aviation was disrupted? And what would happen to the EU27 healthcare systems if they suddenly couldn't use UK-sourced pharmaceuticals? In addition, the EU is almost as much bound up with these agreements as we are; to take another example, the WTO quotas are set on the basis that the UK is part of the EU.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
WTO terms is the least of it. There is also the added time and expense of actually exporting to the EU to factor in; while if we just walk away, on 29th March 2019 the UK ceases to be party to any international agreement of which it is part thanks to its membership of the EU. That will affect industries as diverse as aviation and pharmaceuticals, while having absolutely zero impact on the EU27. No amount of swivel-eyed willy waving gets us round that fact.
It is completely untrue that a chaotic crash-out like that would have zero impact on the EU27. To take an obvious example, what on earth do you think would happen to the French, Spanish, Italian, Greek, Maltese, Cypriot and Czech tourist industries if UK aviation was disrupted? And what would happen to their healthcare systems if they suddenly couldn't use UK-sourced pharmaceuticals? In addition, the EU is almost as much bound up with these agreements as we are; to take another example, the WTO quotas are set on the basis that the UK is part of the EU.
WTO quotas? Other than on poultry (bizarrely), what quotas does the EU impose?
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
Mr. kjh, if you hover the cursor over your post an icon appears top right. Click it, and you can edit a post (can't delete it, I think).
Emojis are just done by having a colon followed by a bracket or lower case P etc.
Like so
MD, Thank you. I knew how to do Emojis that way, but the selection is so great how do you all know them all, other than hovering over ones that have been used recently to get the code. Or am I asking a question that has the word 'sad' in the answer?
Yep I found that icon, but couldn't find a delete button, which would have been about the only option I would have understood
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
Just to be clear - the Camden Council towers evacuated were built under a Labour government, and have been managed by a Labour council for all but 4 of its 40 years.....any comments, Ms Abbott?
Or how she and her Government 1997 - 2010 imposed rigorous new controls on public sector rented property that made the life so much better for all those mutlitudes who came to Britain when she opened the borders - without making provision for housing for them....
The massive migration into the UK under Blair and Brown positied the simple question: where are they all going to live? Labour is far from blameless in this matter.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Great song.. Although it's hard to think of any song I would look to skip on any of the last 4 albums.
That is a good song. I'm finishing up at the shop shortly and heading to a record store and my favourite Poole pub that does fish to treat myself. Might see if I can pick up the vinyl....
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Oh, I've accidentally posted a picture of Radiohead. Oops.
Just watched last night's set. Not bad and the OK Computer heavy setlist pushed my buttons. On The xx now.
Tom's voice was all over the place last night. Not a great performance.
The National is on at 7:30 this evening!
Probably my favourite band these days...
Did you see the documentary "about" them Mistaken for Strangers?
I say "about" them. Because really it's about the lead singer's younger brother, with the band as a backdrop.
Yeah, it was great. Sad but funny. Slacker metalhead with achingly cool brother finding a measure of redemption. Matt's wife came across as pretty cool too.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Great song.. Although it's hard to think of any song I would look to skip on any of the last 4 albums.
That is a good song. I'm finishing up at the shop shortly and heading to a record store and my favourite Poole pub that does fish to treat myself. Might see if I can pick up the vinyl....
As Monksfield said, The National have produced four staggeringly good albums in a row: Alligator, Boxer, High Violet and Trouble Will Find Me.
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
We're believing polls now, are we?
Well, when they show Corbyn "ahead" (sic) of May, yes.`
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
Not the only one, but the risks of Radiohead denial on PB are high...
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
The Debt/GDP ratio is no higher today than at the time of the 1964 election - and is lower than when the 1959 'you have never had it so good' election took place. At neither of those elections was the size of the National Debt a big campaign issue.
The UK had a surplus then (and did for approx 1950-1975), thus the huge debts of WW1 and WW2 were being rapidly chopped away. That's not the case now, it's taken most of a decade to cut the deficit down by 3/4, and even then we're still borrowing 50bn/year - what happens when the next recession comes along?
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
We're believing polls now, are we?
We're believing the Survation polls, which got the election result almost spot-on!
The Debt/GDP ratio is no higher today than at the time of the 1964 election - and is lower than when the 1959 'you have never had it so good' election took place. At neither of those elections was the size of the National Debt a big campaign issue.
The UK had a surplus then (and did for approx 1950-1975), thus the huge debts of WW1 and WW2 were being rapidly chopped away. That's not the case now, it's taken most of a decade to cut the deficit down by 3/4, and even then we're still borrowing 50bn/year - what happens when the next recession comes along?
Some Tories here appear to be in denial. They're still on track for their landslide, albeit at the next election or maybe the one that follows.
er.
Therefore, the most important thing is he's also old. It's hard to see an election before 2019. Will he really go through that again aged 70? Well, he's got a good diet, takes plenty of exercise and looks pretty fit to me. However, the older you get the less energy you have, and that will be doubly true if he spends that time fighting his own party. And no other leader will be able to get away with this, while inheriting a party still intellectually exhausted and politically divided.
Corbyn believes in education being provided on a free universal basis. He sees no reason why that principle should cease to apply to post-18 Higher Education and is simply seeking to return to the system as it operated - with little contoversy - until the 1990s. Free education today for the circa 40% who go to university today is far less elitist than when the same benefits were made available to the circa 5% on degree courses in the mid-1970s. Very few commentators at the time argued that it was so unfair for the 95% non-graduates to be supporting the privileged 5%. Obviously it was much less costly in terms of the numbers involved - but at the same time the beneficiaries were receiving a much more valuable qualification in that degrees were worth a lot more and had yet to be tainted by the rampant grade inflation of the last 30 years. As for Corbyn being too old , he is much younger than Churchill was in October 1951 - almost 77 - and Attlee in 1955 - gone 72.
2017 was the election where the safe assumption was somebody else would be voting to keep Corbyn out, so I don't have to. Very nearly an Oooooops.... there from the electorate.
I think that is very true.
If lots of people only voted Labour because they assumed Corbyn had no chance of winning, why then has Labour gone up further in the polls since the election even now that it's clear that he could well win in the next (possibly very imminent) election?
We're believing polls now, are we?
We're believing the Survation polls, which got the election result almost spot-on!
When turnout is high, we need less adjustments to the raw data
If young people continue to turn out to the polls, that should make polling easier in theory....
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Some Tories here appear to be in denial. They're still on track for their landslide, albeit at the next election or maybe the one that follows.
er.
Therefore, the most important thing is he's also old. It's hard to see an election before 2019. Will he really go through that again aged 70? Well, he's got a good diet, takes plenty of exercise and looks pretty fit to me. However, the older you get the less energy you have, and that will be doubly true if he spends that time fighting his own party. And no other leader will be able to get away with this, while inheriting a party still intellectually exhausted and politically divided.
Corbyn believes in education being provided on a free universal basis. He sees no reason why that principle should cease to apply to post-18 Higher Education and is simply seeking to return to the system as it operated - with little contoversy - until the 1990s. Free education today for the circa 40% who go to university today is far less elitist than when the same benefits were made available to the circa 5% on degree courses in the mid-1970s. Very few commentators at the time argued that it was so unfair for the 95% non-graduates to be supporting the privileged 5%. Obviously it was much less costly in terms of the numbers involved - but at the same time the beneficiaries were receiving a much more valuable qualification in that degrees were worth a lot more and had yet to be tainted by the rampant grade inflation of the last 30 years. As for Corbyn being too old , he is much younger than Churchill was in October 1951 - almost 77 - and Attlee in 1955 - gone 72.
There are more effectively ways of spending £11b for educational attainment. SureStart type early years interventions for a start.
Excellent use of the word "Phew" in that song! When I first read the lyrics I absolutely loved that, I had assumed he was saying something far more wordy
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
Not the only one, but the risks of Radiohead denial on PB are high...
Well at least he has two A levels - unlike Major and Callaghan. Moreover two Es from the mid-1960s would be the rquivalent of at least two Cs today!
Not necessarily. In 1964 just under 20% of school leavers had 1 A-level. Given how rare they were that must have been pretty much everyone who was entered. That said, I can imagine if they were unlikely to pass they wouldn't be put forward anyway.
Slightly relevant, although not strictly, there is a fascinating chapter in Hobsbawm's autobiography where he talks about changes in HE over his lifetime. He commented that in the 1950s and 1960s a First at Cambridge was a very rigorous qualification, one that was extremely hard to get and which showed an exceptional mind. However, a third was effectively a piece of paper with some pretty writing on it.
The Brexit powers and the Tory offering on trade, immigration, fisheries and agriculture, might be quite popular in GE2022 under a new leader, particularly if the economy picks up.
After 12 months, the economic damage is beginning to show too. The pound has lost 14% of its value against the euro; the governor of the Bank of England says “weaker real income growth” cannot be prevented. Inflation is rising. Brexit has made Britons poorer.
And, yet, manufacturing orders are at their highest in almost 30 years, unemployment is at a 40-year low, the FTSE is clocking record highs, and the economy is still growing.
Inflation meanwhile is at the historically eyewatering level of 2.9%, and the pound is still comfortably worth more against the euro than it was during the Great Recession.
RPI inflation is now 3.7% and unemployment would still be above 2 million if the data was compiled and published on the same basis as 40 years ago.
WTO terms is the least of it. There is also the added time and expense of actually exporting to the EU to factor in; while if we just walk away, on 29th March 2019 the UK ceases to be party to any international agreement of which it is part thanks to its membership of the EU. That will affect industries as diverse as aviation and pharmaceuticals, while having absolutely zero impact on the EU27. No amount of swivel-eyed willy waving gets us round that fact.
It is completely untrue that a chaotic crash-out like that would have zero impact on the EU27. To take an obvious example, what on earth do you think would happen to the French, Spanish, Italian, Greek, Maltese, Cypriot and Czech tourist industries if UK aviation was disrupted? And what would happen to the EU27 healthcare systems if they suddenly couldn't use UK-sourced pharmaceuticals? In addition, the EU is almost as much bound up with these agreements as we are; to take another example, the WTO quotas are set on the basis that the UK is part of the EU.
It's a fair point - there would be a level of disruption. But an unequal one. It's why we should not be contemplating a strategy that involves us walking away. If we stay at the table, politely refusing to accept certain terms and conditions and publicly explaining why, but saying we want to keep on talking, it puts the emphasis on the the EU27 to justify to domestic audiences why they are prepared to inflict damage on certain sectors by not doing a deal. Us declaring No Deal lets the EU27 off the hook completely, while inflicting huge damage on the UK.
Seems like the government can't win, get criticized for their slow response but then get criticized for starting to evacuate buildings that have failed inspection and tests.
If they had done nothing and then there was another fire in one of those unsafe buildings...
Corbyn believes in education being provided on a free universal basis. He sees no reason why that principle should cease to apply to post-18 Higher Education and is simply seeking to return to the system as it operated - with little contoversy - until the 1990s. Free education today for the circa 40% who go to university today is far less elitist than when the same benefits were made available to the circa 5% on degree courses in the mid-1970s. Very few commentators at the time argued that it was so unfair for the 95% non-graduates to be supporting the privileged 5%. Obviously it was much less costly in terms of the numbers involved - but at the same time the beneficiaries were receiving a much more valuable qualification in that degrees were worth a lot more and had yet to be tainted by the rampant grade inflation of the last 30 years. As for Corbyn being too old , he is much younger than Churchill was in October 1951 - almost 77 - and Attlee in 1955 - gone 72.
One had had a serious stroke and should have retired in 1949. His peacetime premiership, marred by another stroke in 1953, was hardly an unqualified success. The other was hanging on only to wreck the chances of Morrison succeeding him. His age told against him in 1955 against the much younger Eden. You could have mentioned Joseph Chamberlain as well, who was 70 when he became (officially the acting) leader of the Unionists in 1906 and was incapacitated by a stroke five months later. Equally there are others like Lansbury who took it on and did well.
I have actually said repeatedly that Corbyn is remarkably fit, healthy and energetic. I am also wondering aloud whether it is possible for him to keep this up for ever given (a) the difficult situation he's in and (b) his other significant drawbacks - in particular his lack of support which places the whole burden of leadership on him.
PS - on your other point the key thing is few people had a degree in the 1950s and even 1960s so it was a very minor issue. Given its steady expansion since then it is now a very major one. Eight times as important, indeed!
I have always taken the view as somebody who was a student for eight years and a lecturer for three that the current funding system is unworkable in practice and unsustainable in the medium term. Corbyn's proposals were to get rid of it but he had no meaningful ideas on how to replace it. He would have made matters considerably worse, however well intentioned (as with his schools policy). It is not inconceivable that only five universities would have survived the first year of such a scheme.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
(Snip)
Yeah, Radiohead are so last century. I mean, radio?
TVknee are much better, and if you really want to get down with the kids, MP4StreamingFoot or PrimeToe are really excellent, groovy bands.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Oh, I've accidentally posted a picture of Radiohead. Oops.
Just watched last night's set. Not bad and the OK Computer heavy setlist pushed my buttons. On The xx now.
Tom's voice was all over the place last night. Not a great performance.
The National is on at 7:30 this evening!
Probably my favourite band these days...
Did you see the documentary "about" them Mistaken for Strangers?
I say "about" them. Because really it's about the lead singer's younger brother, with the band as a backdrop.
Yeah, it was great. Sad but funny. Slacker metalhead with achingly cool brother finding a measure of redemption. Matt's wife came across as pretty cool too.
a) How do I post an image? Snipping tool didn't seem to work b) Same for imojis c) Re my test. Having decided I didn't want it at all I couldn't find a delete option
Sorry for being stupid.
For imagine posting, you'll need to use a free image hosting too. You upload your picture to it, and then it gives you a snippet of HTML that you put in your post.
Am I the only person in the known universe who doesn't get Radiohead? I mean, I watched them at Glastonbury yesterday (on telly!) with an ever-growing sense of bewilderment.
(Snip)
Yeah, Radiohead are so last century. I mean, radio?
TVknee are much better, and if you really want to get down with the kids, MP4StreamingFoot or PrimeToe are really excellent, groovy bands.
Knee, Foot and Toe - are you being serious ;-) ?
It should be patently obvious that I am always 100% serious.
If the great hopes of the Conservative party are Graham Brady and Jacob Cream Crackers, they're in deeper trouble than I thought.
My suggestion from the outside would be that they look in the medium term to promote those who spend less time frothing about the evils of the EU and more time talking about how the government can improve the lives of the electorate. Admittedly, right now that might be a very short list indeed.
I've always been quite impressed with James Cleverly. Any reason why someone like him has never had a top job in government?
Time for a fresh faced backbencher.
James and Susie are friends of mine. I met him through a mutual TA friend who was in Gib teaching POWC.
Knowing me is a surefire disbarment to anyone being given any level of responsibility. His judgement is surely in question.
Our Friends In The North quite neatly covered the utter shit hole high rises that were built in the 60s. Who would have thought we'd be revisiting it 20 years later. Camden council really going for May's clusterfuck title this weekend.
Comments
https://ctrlq.org/images/ seems to work...
I have quite a bit of seasonality in my business and it can lead to quite tight cash squeezes
Betting PostF1: didn't plan on this, but two tips for qualifying:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-pre-qualifying-2017.html
Backed Bottas for pole at 4.6, hedged evens (Betfair), and Raikkonen each way at 9 (Ladbrokes).
With Hamilton and Vettel both having slightly wonky reliability and being off the pace a touch, and both Finns topping the P3 timesheet, the odds seemed a little too long.
"Grenfell House (sic) is not just an accident; Grenfell House is not just an unfortunate incident. Those hundreds of people that died is a direct consequence of Tory attitudes in social housing," she told a conference of the Labour Progress group.
So, Labour Camden Council evacuation of four tower blocks is.....
Elbow, on the other hand, were quite superb.
I'm not so sure of Scott - and TSE is more 'abject hero worship' than 'fandom'.....
Even this stupid Leaver got As....
The National is on at 7:30 this evening!
But I guess he'll take all the support he can get
TVknee are much better, and if you really want to get down with the kids, MP4StreamingFoot or PrimeToe are really excellent, groovy bands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbWBRnDK_AE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KhGUE_KjIo
When I warned them that he might get in - it was all "he'll never win" etc etc.
My first memory of Radiohead was Thom Yorkes face appearing on MTV and my Dad saying "Get that miserable lookin c*nt off the telly!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y6GfEmLlok
I say "about" them. Because really it's about the lead singer's younger brother, with the band as a backdrop.
Yep I found that icon, but couldn't find a delete button, which would have been about the only option I would have understood
so that's 8.5 million cars rolling around the EU under false pretences
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/vw-abgasskandal/keine-entschaedigung-volkswagen-und-eu-einigen-sich-im-abgasstreit-15061990.html
The massive migration into the UK under Blair and Brown positied the simple question: where are they all going to live? Labour is far from blameless in this matter.
Bye then.... It was fun knowing you all.
So if we were't in the EU we could go after VW like the US has......
As for Corbyn being too old , he is much younger than Churchill was in October 1951 - almost 77 - and Attlee in 1955 - gone 72.
If young people continue to turn out to the polls, that should make polling easier in theory....
https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2017/06/23/the-eu-referendum-one-year-on-and-back-at-square-one/
Slightly relevant, although not strictly, there is a fascinating chapter in Hobsbawm's autobiography where he talks about changes in HE over his lifetime. He commented that in the 1950s and 1960s a First at Cambridge was a very rigorous qualification, one that was extremely hard to get and which showed an exceptional mind. However, a third was effectively a piece of paper with some pretty writing on it.
If they had done nothing and then there was another fire in one of those unsafe buildings...
I have actually said repeatedly that Corbyn is remarkably fit, healthy and energetic. I am also wondering aloud whether it is possible for him to keep this up for ever given (a) the difficult situation he's in and (b) his other significant drawbacks - in particular his lack of support which places the whole burden of leadership on him.
PS - on your other point the key thing is few people had a degree in the 1950s and even 1960s so it was a very minor issue. Given its steady expansion since then it is now a very major one. Eight times as important, indeed!
I have always taken the view as somebody who was a student for eight years and a lecturer for three that the current funding system is unworkable in practice and unsustainable in the medium term. Corbyn's proposals were to get rid of it but he had no meaningful ideas on how to replace it. He would have made matters considerably worse, however well intentioned (as with his schools policy). It is not inconceivable that only five universities would have survived the first year of such a scheme.
It is ok to listen to AOR and smooth jazz all day, if you have Radiohead on your Spotify playlist, you are still cool !!
Sadly I have to do some work. Have a great day everyone.
Or should that be 0%?
Knowing me is a surefire disbarment to anyone being given any level of responsibility. His judgement is surely in question.
Camden council really going for May's clusterfuck title this weekend.