A bit lazy of Lucian to put working class protestants into the Labour box, when the class-basis of Great British politics has been weakening for years and now appears completely disappeared (temporarily or permanently)? But thanks for an interesting lead article, from the Unionist perspective. All the non-Tory parties are going to be seeking credit for defeating policy initiatives intended to at least chip away at inter-generational unfairness, which is a sign of how crazy politics has become.
Sad that the Alliance Party doesn't merit even a mention.
It looks like Ruth Davidson is offering herself and her voting block as an ambassador to other parties for a consensus on a soft Brexit. Presumably if she can cobble together a Scottish interest group on Brexit, that would be a useful block of MPs to go up against a headbanger faction within the Conservative Party. Might work. May would have to give Davidson a lot of discretion but also support.
Some good news for May, she is the only foreign leader both Clinton and Trump voters have a favourable opinion of according to a new US PPP poll. Clinton voters give Trudeau, Macron, Merkel and May net positive ratings, Trump voters only give May a net positive rating, the rest a negative rating
It looks like Ruth Davidson is offering herself and her voting block as an ambassador to other parties for a consensus on a soft Brexit. Presumably if she can cobble together a Scottish interest group on Brexit, that would be a useful block of MPs to go up against a headbanger faction within the Conservative Party. Might work. May would have to give Davidson a lot of discretion but also support.
Chortle. That will be entertaining. No doubt Wee Ruthie will also have some choice words for her new colleagues who believe lesbians will be banished to the seventh circle of Hell.
I know some former colleagues of his and understand Jones was not really considered committed to the law, because he was always going places in the Labour party. I think his departure happened one electoral cycle sooner than anticipated, though.
Happened to me in 1997 too. My Swiss employers were willing to let me indulge myself but were frustrated that I bloody won.
Thanks to Lucian for an interesting piece.On his last point, it's always best to think of the print media as a branch of the entertainment inudstry which is sometimes also informative. They see their main job as to sell papers and indulge their readers' prejudices.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Different people will judge in different ways.
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
You've got me loyal orange lodgin'!
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Different people will judge in different ways.
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
You've got me loyal orange lodgin'!
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
The Tory's 'viral' Corbyn IRA attack video was certainly forgotten the following week.
Stewart Jackson complaining about his redundancy pay had me chuckling for the first time in days.
I generally think I have not the talent to offer the nation for me to ever consider becoming a politician. But occasionally* someone comes along who makes me think, "well if (s)he can do it..."
* Occasionally being nowhere near rare enough to suggest that our political system is working in our favour.
May knows she is done for now, she can be a dull block wall in PMQ's rather than trying to channel Cameron (which she was bad at) as Corbyn is just as dull. The current Labour party have proven they are crap at the day to day, but are very, very good at campaigning. Getting them back to work is the best thing May could do for the Tories.
The British government is suppressing explosive intelligence that Alexander Perepilichnyy, a financier who exposed a vast financial crime by Russian government officials, was likely assassinated on the direct orders of Vladimir Putin.
Perepilichnyy, who faced repeated threats after fleeing to Britain, was found dead outside his home in Surrey after returning from a mysterious trip to Paris in 2012. Despite an expert detecting signs of a fatal plant poison in his stomach, the British police has insisted there was no evidence of foul play, and Theresa May’s government has invoked national security powers to withhold evidence from the inquest into his cause of death – which is ongoing.
But an investigation by BuzzFeed News has now obtained fresh evidence that the authorities have deliberately sidelined, and has uncovered how Perepilichnyy spent his last days in Paris. Secret documents and interviews with more than a dozen current and former intelligence and law enforcement officials in the US, France, and the UK reveal:
US spies said they have passed MI6 high-grade intelligence indicating that Perepilichnyy was likely "assassinated on direct orders from Putin or people close to him” and lambasted the British police for their “botched” investigation.
A highly classified report on Russian state assassinations compiled for the US Congress by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence last year asserts with “high confidence” that Perepilichnyy’s murder was sanctioned by President Putin.
French police are treating the financier’s death as a suspected organised assassination – but say they have been repeatedly stonewalled by their British counterparts.
Perepilichnyy travelled to Paris before his death for a secret assignation with a 22-year-old Ukrainian woman named Elmira Medynska, who gave an exclusive interview to BuzzFeed News, but whom British and French police never spoke to.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Different people will judge in different ways.
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
You've got me loyal orange lodgin'!
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
It is actually quite hard to work out what you're trying to say in these comments. For example, are you saying it's unfair to the Tories that people think they see the DUP as natural bedfellows? That's certainly what Theresa May seemed to be saying in her victory speech. Or that it's unfair that people see the DUP as outdated nutters? But is that unfair, if it's based on things they have really said? Should people disregard the offensive stuff because they have a pragmatic healthcare policy? I'm tempted to say something about trains running on time, but I suppose I'd better not.
I know some former colleagues of his and understand Jones was not really considered committed to the law, because he was always going places in the Labour party. I think his departure happened one electoral cycle sooner than anticipated, though.
Happened to me in 1997 too. My Swiss employers were willing to let me indulge myself but were frustrated that I bloody won. .
Better that than the other way around. The dead cert having to return with a tail between their legs.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Corbyn next PM nailed on in that case!
You favoured the coalition and, as I understand it, voted Conservative in GE2010.
Why have you become a socialist cheerleader since? Bitter about the NHS?
(genuinely interested)
I voted Conservative in a GE only once in my life, in 2010. I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
Does anyone know if Paisley's War against Sodomy actually reduced the amount of sodomy/sodomites in Northern Ireland?
Of course it made no difference at all.
Such policies are stupid and all such policies reveal is that the people pushing those policies are insecure in their sense of self. Rather than putting the effort into learning to accept differences in others, they take the other route of banning what they do not like so that they do not have to think about it or face their own inadequacies.
I mean - what does it matter who someone else loves? It is no one's business except for the couple involved. Gay people are just people. If two of them love each other then why is it anyone else's business? Why should anyone have their lives proscribed because of who they love? Why should they be discriminated against for finding happiness?
Penalising people for being happy shows just how mad homophobia is.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Corbyn next PM nailed on in that case!
You favoured the coalition and, as I understand it, voted Conservative in GE2010.
Why have you become a socialist cheerleader since? Bitter about the NHS?
(genuinely interested)
I voted Conservative in a GE only once in my life, in 2010. I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
Thanks. That doesn't quite explain your socialist cheerleading, however. Even more so if it's actually a soft Brexit that results from the current administration.
Jeremy Corbyn would make Gordon Brown look like Kenneth Clarke when it comes to economic or financial competence.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Corbyn next PM nailed on in that case!
You favoured the coalition and, as I understand it, voted Conservative in GE2010.
Why have you become a socialist cheerleader since? Bitter about the NHS?
(genuinely interested)
I voted Conservative in a GE only once in my life, in 2010. I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
That is an excellent post that illustrates perfectly Labour's route to victory. (Plus, the electoral maths are now with them, and the boundary changes dead in the water.)
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Different people will judge in different ways.
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
You've got me loyal orange lodgin'!
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
Unfortunately, though, such viral surges coincided with the GE this time. This was the X-factor election, and Theresa didn't have it.
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
Laura K is incredibly irritating. It is getting to the point where I can't watch BBC News in case she pops up
She did her best during the campaign, probably just stopped Corbyn from winning to be fair
Thank Christ.
We didn't just dodge a bullet, we dodged an entire front line of entrenched machine guns with the British people very slowly marching toward them.
It does demonstrate how risky FPTP is
I thought this place was all in favour of FPTP? I seem to recall that threads on PR and AV never get published? I mean, if it was popular, surely @TSE would do a thread on it?
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Corbyn next PM nailed on in that case!
You favoured the coalition and, as I understand it, voted Conservative in GE2010.
Why have you become a socialist cheerleader since? Bitter about the NHS?
(genuinely interested)
I voted Conservative in a GE only once in my life, in 2010. I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
That is an excellent post that illustrates perfectly Labour's route to victory. (Plus, the electoral maths are now with them, and the boundary changes dead in the water.)
One of the mistakes of May's 'citizens of nowhere' approach was to ignite a culture war which sets the Conservatives against metropolitan values. When you add in the negative effects of Brexit, the economic competence argument becomes neutralised.
Watching Panorama now -- God, Osborne is so petty.
I liked Osborne the best. So much brighter and sparkier than those dimwits who he used to sit around a cabinet table with. Why shouldn't he enjoy his moment? If he'd been anywhere near that election campaign the Tories would have won with a lanslide.
His political antenna seldom let him down, Theresa the overconfident hasn't got one.
Apart from that JC so much reminded me of Chance the Gardener. Meaningless little patitudes had them roaring. It was completely surreal.
.... I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Different people will judge in different ways.
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
You've got me loyal orange lodgin'!
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
Unfortunately, though, such viral surges coincided with the GE this time. This was the X-factor election, and Theresa didn't have it.
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
Watching Panorama now -- God, Osborne is so petty.
I liked Osborne the best. So much brighter and sparkier than those dimwits who he used to sit around a cabinet table with. Why shouldn't he enjoy his moment? If he'd been anywhere near that election campaign the Tories would have won with a lanslide.
His political antenna seldom let him down, Theresa the overconfident hasn't got one.
Apart from that JC so much reminded me of Chance the Gardener. Meaningless little patitudes had them roaring. It was completely surreal.
Your memory is a little selective if you think Osborne's political antennae seldom let him down. Think Deripaska, pasties and project fear amongst others.
@steve_hawkes: Lord Rose tells ITV Election shows Brits are reconsidering Brexit. Must only be matter of time before UniversitiesUK and FTSE chief letters
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Different people will judge in different ways.
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
You've got me loyal orange lodgin'!
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
Unfortunately, though, such viral surges coincided with the GE this time. This was the X-factor election, and Theresa didn't have it.
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
@steve_hawkes: Lord Rose tells ITV Election shows Brits are reconsidering Brexit. Must only be matter of time before UniversitiesUK and FTSE chief letters
LOL.
He'll be reminding us that leaving the EU means higher wages, next.
@steve_hawkes: Lord Rose tells ITV Election shows Brits are reconsidering Brexit. Must only be matter of time before UniversitiesUK and FTSE chief letters
Lord Rose thought it a bad thing, if wages rose, following Brexit.
.... I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
Not so great post. Sorry
How do we win someone like you back, Beverley?
I read you as precisely the sort of voter the Conservatives should never have lost.
@steve_hawkes: Lord Rose tells ITV Election shows Brits are reconsidering Brexit. Must only be matter of time before UniversitiesUK and FTSE chief letters
Lord Rose thought it a bad thing, if wages rose, following Brexit.
It is a bad thing if prices rise faster. An inflationary spiral does no-one any good.
.... I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
Not so great post. Sorry
How do we win someone like you back, Beverley?
I read you as precisely the sort of voter the Conservatives should never have lost.
I'd suggest binning the europhobia and bigoted colleagues. But I'm sure she will answer for herself!
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Corbyn next PM nailed on in that case!
You favoured the coalition and, as I understand it, voted Conservative in GE2010.
Why have you become a socialist cheerleader since? Bitter about the NHS?
(genuinely interested)
I voted Conservative in a GE only once in my life, in 2010. I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
The potential problem with this is I suspect the Tories (or the leadership) wanted a soft brexit but were threatening a hard Brexit to achieve it, whereas the Labour leadership wanted the exact opposite.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Different people will judge in different ways.
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
You've got me loyal orange lodgin'!
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
Unfortunately, though, such viral surges coincided with the GE this time. This was the X-factor election, and Theresa didn't have it.
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
@steve_hawkes: Lord Rose tells ITV Election shows Brits are reconsidering Brexit. Must only be matter of time before UniversitiesUK and FTSE chief letters
It is actually quite hard to work out what you're trying to say in these comments. For example, are you saying it's unfair to the Tories that people think they see the DUP as natural bedfellows? That's certainly what Theresa May seemed to be saying in her victory speech. Or that it's unfair that people see the DUP as outdated nutters? But is that unfair, if it's based on things they have really said? Should people disregard the offensive stuff because they have a pragmatic healthcare policy? I'm tempted to say something about trains running on time, but I suppose I'd better not.
I have my own views on the DUP but they aren't relevant to my point, which is simply that different people will judge things in different ways - often based on only very partial information (there is far more to the DUP than a spot of quote-googling will throw up - and similar exercises on other parties could be made to look very ugly too) and on very limited criteria. The end judgment may not be holistic or fair or take into account the relevant counterfactuals (e.g. sure, Labour would also have tried cutting a deal with the DUP if the numbers meant they needed to, but few people will be absolving the Tories on that basis) yet it will still affect how people in key demographics vote.
Essentially, just because someone thinks this deal "should" be judged in a particular way, doesn't mean it will be.
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Different people will judge in different ways.
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
You've got me loyal orange lodgin'!
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
Unfortunately, though, such viral surges coincided with the GE this time. This was the X-factor election, and Theresa didn't have it.
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
It will blow over.
The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
Corbyn next PM nailed on in that case!
You favoured the coalition and, as I understand it, voted Conservative in GE2010.
Why have you become a socialist cheerleader since? Bitter about the NHS?
(genuinely interested)
I voted Conservative in a GE only once in my life, in 2010. I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
The potential problem with this is I suspect the Tories (or the leadership) wanted a soft brexit but were threatening a hard Brexit to achieve it, whereas the Labour leadership wanted the exact opposite.
If they are constantly threatening a walkaway WTO Brexit, they should not be surprised to be believed. Certainly parts of the electorate feel the same.
.... I thought that Cameron had genuinely shifted his party in the right direction of social liberalism. I also thought that Brown had to go for his economic incompetence.
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
Not so great post. Sorry
How do we win someone like you back, Beverley?
I read you as precisely the sort of voter the Conservatives should never have lost.
I'd suggest binning the europhobia and bigoted colleagues. But I'm sure she will answer for herself!
But, those things are fun. We love to march with the Hertsmere Protestant Defenders Flute Band.
If only Ken Clarke had won the leadership we could have had Conservative dominance over the last couple of decades with the UK in the Eurozone, and happy to be so. We wouldn't have got involved in Iraq, and the Blair government would have faced serious opposition for as long as it lasted.
Plus, you'd never have had to go through the pain of seeing the UK vote for Brexit and then having it all slip away in a humiliating death spiral.
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
The next election will be in May 2022.
I know John...the dance of death with the DUP and this slow, long drift will continue for five long years of impotent, powerless, infighting, divisive, excruciatingly enfeebled government against a backdrop of Brexit that will be pushed continually into the long grass.....
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
No idea, but my point is that I think it may be a mistake to assume any Con/DUP arrangement will only last months. If the Tories are determined and disciplined the next election may well ne some time away.
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
The next election will be in May 2022.
Not June 2022?
I imagine that there will be agreement to hold it on the same day as the locals. Otherwise, you're right and it will be June.
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
The next election will be in May 2022.
Not June 2022?
I imagine that there will be agreement to hold it on the same day as the locals. Otherwise, you're right and it will be June.
Need to check but I think it's May 2022 under FTPA.
FTPA has clause to reset to May in the 5th year if there's an early GE.
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
Unfortunately, though, such viral surges coincided with the GE this time. This was the X-factor election, and Theresa didn't have it.
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
Yes - someone pointed out the 35-45 age group seems to have actively defected to Labour rather than just stayed at home, according to the YouGov model. That should be terrifying for you!
People only get so many pieces of political information per week, and for normal people that number is low (especially outside election times). If the little bit they are getting fed is that Unionists are vile and backwards, and the Conservatives are nasty enough to find them suitable allies, the Tories risk getting tarred in the same way that the Lib Dems did in coalition. Ironic, really.
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
No idea, but my point is that I think it may be a mistake to assume any Con/DUP arrangement will only last months. If the Tories are determined and disciplined the next election may well ne some time away.
5 years away as JohnO predicts...the Tory turkeys are not going to vote for Xmas...
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
The next election will be in May 2022.
I know John...the dance of death with the DUP and this slow, long drift will continue for five long years of impotent, powerless, infighting, divisive, excruciatingly enfeebled government against a backdrop of Brexit that will be pushed continually into the long grass.....
Who do you blame most? Cameron or May?
Er, the voters??
It's certainly possible that 2022 will be like 1997 and that will assuredly be the outcome should the Tories behave now as they did then. But nothing is inevitable, is it? After all, barely a week or so ago, you and I and a good many others thought Mrs M would win by a landslide.
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
No idea, but my point is that I think it may be a mistake to assume any Con/DUP arrangement will only last months. If the Tories are determined and disciplined the next election may well ne some time away.
5 years away as JohnO predicts...the Tory turkeys are not going to vote for Xmas...
And Jezza I doubt will go nowhere
Jezza won't be leading us into a 2022 election. The same manifesto and a new leader without the 'backstory' will seal the deal.
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
The next election will be in May 2022.
Not June 2022?
I imagine that there will be agreement to hold it on the same day as the locals. Otherwise, you're right and it will be June.
Cling on with no majority for five years? What is the record term for a minority government?
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
Unfortunately, though, such viral surges coincided with the GE this time. This was the X-factor election, and Theresa didn't have it.
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
Yes - someone pointed out the 35-45 age group seems to have actively defected to Labour rather than just stayed at home, according to the YouGov model. That should be terrifying for you!
People only get so many pieces of political information per week, and for normal people that number is low (especially outside election times). If the little bit they are getting fed is that Unionists are vile and backwards, and the Conservatives are nasty enough to find them suitable allies, the Tories risk getting tarred in the same way that the Lib Dems did in coalition. Ironic, really.
Anyone on here willing to admit to saying that the Coalition would not last 6 months back in 2010?
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
No idea, but my point is that I think it may be a mistake to assume any Con/DUP arrangement will only last months. If the Tories are determined and disciplined the next election may well ne some time away.
5 years away as JohnO predicts...the Tory turkeys are not going to vote for Xmas...
And Jezza I doubt will go nowhere
Jezza won't be leading us into a 2022 election. The same manifesto and a new leader without the 'backstory' will seal the deal.
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
Stuff that goes viral on social media is forgotten the following week.
Unfortunately, though, such viral surges coincided with the GE this time. This was the X-factor election, and Theresa didn't have it.
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
Yes - someone pointed out the 35-45 age group seems to have actively defected to Labour rather than just stayed at home, according to the YouGov model. That should be terrifying for you!
People only get so many pieces of political information per week, and for normal people that number is low (especially outside election times). If the little bit they are getting fed is that Unionists are vile and backwards, and the Conservatives are nasty enough to find them suitable allies, the Tories risk getting tarred in the same way that the Lib Dems did in coalition. Ironic, really.
Yet the Tories still won 42%, the only influence the DUP will get will be on areas like watering down the dementia tax, keeping the triple lock and a softer approach to Brexit, ironically what the country voted for
Comments
Sad that the Alliance Party doesn't merit even a mention.
Sanders 51%
Trump 41%
Biden 54%
Trump 41%
Warren 46%
Trump 43%
Booker 43%
Trump 41%
Harris 42%
Trump 41%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/06/plurality-of-voters-think-trump-obstructed-justice.html
PS - Sent you a vanilla message
Thanks to Lucian for an interesting piece.On his last point, it's always best to think of the print media as a branch of the entertainment inudstry which is sometimes also informative. They see their main job as to sell papers and indulge their readers' prejudices.
Meanwhile it still takes an hour to get from Leeds to Manchester.
I generally think I have not the talent to offer the nation for me to ever consider becoming a politician. But occasionally* someone comes along who makes me think, "well if (s)he can do it..."
* Occasionally being nowhere near rare enough to suggest that our political system is working in our favour.
But I accept that they are at serious risk now.
The current Labour party have proven they are crap at the day to day, but are very, very good at campaigning. Getting them back to work is the best thing May could do for the Tories.
The British government is suppressing explosive intelligence that Alexander Perepilichnyy, a financier who exposed a vast financial crime by Russian government officials, was likely assassinated on the direct orders of Vladimir Putin.
Perepilichnyy, who faced repeated threats after fleeing to Britain, was found dead outside his home in Surrey after returning from a mysterious trip to Paris in 2012. Despite an expert detecting signs of a fatal plant poison in his stomach, the British police has insisted there was no evidence of foul play, and Theresa May’s government has invoked national security powers to withhold evidence from the inquest into his cause of death – which is ongoing.
But an investigation by BuzzFeed News has now obtained fresh evidence that the authorities have deliberately sidelined, and has uncovered how Perepilichnyy spent his last days in Paris. Secret documents and interviews with more than a dozen current and former intelligence and law enforcement officials in the US, France, and the UK reveal:
US spies said they have passed MI6 high-grade intelligence indicating that Perepilichnyy was likely "assassinated on direct orders from Putin or people close to him” and lambasted the British police for their “botched” investigation.
A highly classified report on Russian state assassinations compiled for the US Congress by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence last year asserts with “high confidence” that Perepilichnyy’s murder was sanctioned by President Putin.
French police are treating the financier’s death as a suspected organised assassination – but say they have been repeatedly stonewalled by their British counterparts.
Perepilichnyy travelled to Paris before his death for a secret assignation with a 22-year-old Ukrainian woman named Elmira Medynska, who gave an exclusive interview to BuzzFeed News, but whom British and French police never spoke to.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/poison-in-the-system?utm_term=.nhgV4Prjxd#.snob6EPy1n
I think that the coalition was a golden period of good government (with one or two exceptions, tuition fees being the glaring one).
In 2015 the loonies took over the Tory asylum, and we are living out that lunacy. Tories abandoned economic competence a year ago when they backed Hard Brexit. They will not recover it for a generation.
I do not regard Labour now as less financially competent. Sure, they want to open the financial taps, but by wanting soft Brexit they balance that out. I am not the only one who thinks this, most of London does too.
If we are not going to live within our means, then I prefer the Labour way of doing it.
Just think - where would the country be if the exit poll had actually been spot on? On such small margins...
Such policies are stupid and all such policies reveal is that the people pushing those policies are insecure in their sense of self. Rather than putting the effort into learning to accept differences in others, they take the other route of banning what they do not like so that they do not have to think about it or face their own inadequacies.
I mean - what does it matter who someone else loves? It is no one's business except for the couple involved. Gay people are just people. If two of them love each other then why is it anyone else's business? Why should anyone have their lives proscribed because of who they love? Why should they be discriminated against for finding happiness?
Penalising people for being happy shows just how mad homophobia is.
In: Gauke, Gove
Out: Truss
Doesn't balance (in terms of jobs) - presumably because Green (obviously still in Cabinet) has taken a previous non-Cabinet job for Cabinet Office.
So how do Cabinet numbers (which are fixed) balance? Is it that Leadsom is officially no longer in Cabinet?
Jeremy Corbyn would make Gordon Brown look like Kenneth Clarke when it comes to economic or financial competence.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/874140172753018880
The 18-24s should never be ignored, but it's the 35-45 age group I'd be most worried about as a Conservative.
And we seem to have lost the female vote this time, too.
https://youtu.be/-dVD5Tm1VHg
His political antenna seldom let him down, Theresa the overconfident hasn't got one.
Apart from that JC so much reminded me of Chance the Gardener. Meaningless little patitudes had them roaring. It was completely surreal.
Great post
Not so great post. Sorry
We have time to win back lost support.
He'll be reminding us that leaving the EU means higher wages, next.
I read you as precisely the sort of voter the Conservatives should never have lost.
I thought it likely the LDs would split and Clegg (+ enough LD's to give cons a majority) would join the tory party proper.
@tissue_price laid my bet @ (iirc) 10/1
I was very very wrong!
Essentially, just because someone thinks this deal "should" be judged in a particular way, doesn't mean it will be.
Panic mode again soon I suspect.
Always room for one more.
Mate..... the coalition lasted so long because the Tories were behind in the polls...so m much so that Cameron went to desperate lengths such as promise a vote on the EU.....
The Tories are now behind in the polls. Please tell me when they the time will come when they will feel brave enough to go for an election....
Plus, you'd never have had to go through the pain of seeing the UK vote for Brexit and then having it all slip away in a humiliating death spiral.
Tories really need to stop being rude to people, it always comes back to haunt you.
Who do you blame most? Cameron or May?
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/leo-varadkar-uk-election-results-should-rule-out-hard-brexit-1.3113685
FTPA has clause to reset to May in the 5th year if there's an early GE.
People only get so many pieces of political information per week, and for normal people that number is low (especially outside election times). If the little bit they are getting fed is that Unionists are vile and backwards, and the Conservatives are nasty enough to find them suitable allies, the Tories risk getting tarred in the same way that the Lib Dems did in coalition. Ironic, really.
And Jezza I doubt will go nowhere
It's certainly possible that 2022 will be like 1997 and that will assuredly be the outcome should the Tories behave now as they did then. But nothing is inevitable, is it? After all, barely a week or so ago, you and I and a good many others thought Mrs M would win by a landslide.
But one extra advantage of doing so is that Corbyn will be getting older - he'll be 73 in 2022.
Now Corbyn is in good health and I'm sure everyone, whoever they support, wishes him the best of health.
But there has to be a chance he'll slow down by then - and if he isn't up to fighting the next GE any replacement isn't going to have his charisma.