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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the DUP and what supporting the government

The election in Northern Ireland was an enormously dispiriting one for me. As a Unionist who is a former liberal Tory I threw my hat in with the UUP a number of years ago, before joining them last year.
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Er ....
I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
So to keep seats she probably does need to keep the independence dream alive (Though it seems further away than ever now) - plus the Tory retox project with the DUP might help her to win back some seats.
If the SNP is not for independence, then what is the point ?
I like publishing these.
Despite short term movements in public opinion and the combined success of Ruth Davidson and Corbyn-mania, the fundamentals are all there to underpin a potential majority for independence some time next year.
He has spent the last 14 years criticising *every* Conservative leader for *everything* they do.
(sorry for my language)
For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
That said, he's right about the sacking of Robert Halfon.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556
Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.
I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.
Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.
He is just a little bit of a legend.
Extra funding in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland = Extra funding in England × Population proportion compared to England × The extent to which the relevant English departmental programme is comparable with the services carried out by the devolved administration
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula
FWIW, and speaking as a passionate Unionist, I've wanted politics in NI to normalise for a long time and for Northern Ireland to play its full part in the governance of the United Kingdom.
Perhaps this is a chance to demonstrate just how that can happen, to everyone's benefit, in the future.
Just think back 2 months to see how things can change quickly. If May gets a Queens Speech through and the Tories knuckle down to Government they are far from doomed.
For Corbyn’s hard core, the real enemy has never been the Tories. They don’t really notice the Tories. Rather, they see a hated coalition of political and media Corbynsceptics who, they fervently believe, have smeared a good man as cranky and unelectable because it is easier than opposing his policies. This simply isn’t true. Labour didn’t win this election, but Corbyn did far better than almost anybody ever expected, probably including him. He didn’t do well because his critics were wrong, but because, belatedly, he realised they were absolutely right.
Want to stop people deriding you as a disaster? The very best strategy is to stop being one. Look at him now. It really works. Somebody should tell Theresa May.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/corbyn-learnt-to-compromise-may-didnt-0cbbsf857
"Nicola Sturgeon took a punt on Brexit swinging the public behind independence. When that didn’t happen she figured that tagging Ruth Davidson with the most unpopular welfare reforms would shore up the Nationalist vote. In the final days of the election, recognising that this was not working, she absurdly posited that only a vote for her party could get Labour into power at UK level. The real coalition of chaos was between Mrs May and Miss Sturgeon, two leaders in the grips of hubris who led their parties from positions of strength to humiliating reversals."
Lads, you have now become more desperate than the very nadir of the Major Govt...and there is sweet FA you can do about it...
2 fucking vanity elections.. you deserve to pay a high price indeed.....
Bring back fox hunting and fracking and hard Brexit and arse licking Trump and gerrymandering and austerity and privatisation of health...all gone....the Tories make me want to vomit in this risible dance of death with the DUP which could last for five years...
Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
End of the line for R3?
Why have you become a socialist cheerleader since? Bitter about the NHS?
(genuinely interested)
I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
+1
We didn't just dodge a bullet, we dodged an entire front line of entrenched machine guns with the British people very slowly marching toward them.
Why challenge her now? Who would want they job given the mess we are in?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/06/plurality-of-voters-think-trump-obstructed-justice.html
I suspect the money will be spent on the young and housing.
Not only is it good optics, the world will cope with my 2 hr journey from Manchester to London not being reduced by 20 mins
He is actually a very fine contributor to PB, as long as you don't follow his racing tips!