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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the DUP and what supporting the government

SystemSystem Posts: 12,587
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the DUP and what supporting the government would mean

The election in Northern Ireland was an enormously dispiriting one for me. As a Unionist who is a former liberal Tory I threw my hat in with the UUP a number of years ago, before joining them last year.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    First like the Conservatives by over 50 seats lest we forget.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    Not first ever. Like George Osborne.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/874320761535815680
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,495
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/874320761535815680

    Who is the more delusional, Nicola or "winner" Corbyn?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,754
    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/watch-the-handmaids-tale-and-get-back-to-us-dup-tells-may-20170612129385
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,333
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/874320761535815680

    Who is the more delusional, Nicola or "winner" Corbyn?
    Aren't they both "winners"?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Philip_Thompson said:

    First like the Conservatives by over 50 seats lest we forget.

    That's a strong and stable first post ....

    Er ....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,180

    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,238
    https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/874346195824652289
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Thanks for this, Lucian. Does the barnett formula work in the same way for N. Ireland as it does for Scotland, so if you increase NHS spending in England N.Ireland gets it's share?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,233
    Thanks Lucian!
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,782
    Thanks Lucian, very informative.

  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    nunu said:

    Thanks for this, Lucian. Does the barnett formula work in the same way for N. Ireland as it does for Scotland, so if you increase NHS spending in England N.Ireland gets it's share?

    Yes. Block grant goes up if there's a general splurge.


  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited June 2017
    Whatever happened to the concept that people elected representative to serve in the national interest. They seem to be going out of their way to destroy the last few shreds of creditably they may have had. It's now party party party. But maybe that was always so
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,180
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,463
    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I'd wait and see what outrageous demands they have made before saying they "understand that they can't make outrageous demands".
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    nichomar said:

    Whatever happened to the concept that people elected representative to serve in the national interest. They seem to be going out of their way to destroy the last few shreds of creditably they may have had. It's now party party party. But maybe that was always so

    Politicians discovered that they don't get any gratitude for putting country over party from the electorate. Look at Nick Clegg.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    edited June 2017
    Not at all a biased article, a fine one. Agree that the usual DUP bigots chat is outdated. However, so is the DUP working class meme. If true, then per then results, 65-75 per cent of NI Protestants are working-class. They're well-established in the Belfast exurban seats and are even going to win North Down next time. PS on the bigots chat, the risk is not the MPs bar Sammy, but that what their gamma grade people say in Stormont will be amplified to GB.
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    I'm about to go offline as I'm heading into the Irish Sea (on a ferry I'm not suicidal). But one thing amused me today. I was listening to Radio Ulster and they were asking voters what their priorities were and they mentioned schools and hospitals. The electorate knows full well that these issues are always well below flags, marches and lilies when they cast ballots. Tickled me.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    nunu said:

    Thanks for this, Lucian. Does the barnett formula work in the same way for N. Ireland as it does for Scotland, so if you increase NHS spending in England N.Ireland gets it's share?

    Yes. Block grant goes up if there's a general splurge.


    So if NHS spending were to increase by, say, £350m a week, how much would NI get?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.

    And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,838
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/874320761535815680

    Who is the more delusional, Nicola or "winner" Corbyn?
    Aren't they both "winners"?
    Nicola needs to be careful, there is clearly an appetite for independence amongst~ 40% of the population. It is just the other 60% are learning to vote tactically against the ToriesSNP.
    So to keep seats she probably does need to keep the independence dream alive (Though it seems further away than ever now) - plus the Tory retox project with the DUP might help her to win back some seats.
    If the SNP is not for independence, then what is the point ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,838
    edited June 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    There is opportunity here for the Tories and DUP - triple lock back and dementia tax changes off the table as "compromises" for the negotiations.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,874
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    I'm about to go offline as I'm heading into the Irish Sea (on a ferry I'm not suicidal). But one thing amused me today. I was listening to Radio Ulster and they were asking voters what their priorities were and they mentioned schools and hospitals. The electorate knows full well that these issues are always well below flags, marches and lilies when they cast ballots. Tickled me.

    Thanks for another great piece.

    I like publishing these.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,180
    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.

    And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
    The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited June 2017
    Unless your willing to force people to wipe old people's bums and pull vegetables from the fields or there won't be any state support this argument about FOM is stupid if you really believe it have the courage to say and expet it could be apples to your nearest and dearest. As to wether we want people who are forced to wipe.... Is a different question
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    not_on_fire said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    nunu said:

    Thanks for this, Lucian. Does the barnett formula work in the same way for N. Ireland as it does for Scotland, so if you increase NHS spending in England N.Ireland gets it's share?

    Yes. Block grant goes up if there's a general splurge.


    So if NHS spending were to increase by, say, £350m a week, how much would NI get?
    Pass. I'd have to Google and do the maths and I'm on my phone with signal fading!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    nichomar said:

    Whatever happened to the concept that people elected representative to serve in the national interest. They seem to be going out of their way to destroy the last few shreds of creditably they may have had. It's now party party party. But maybe that was always so

    Labour is certainly partying - they all pay homage at Corbyn's altar now.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/874320761535815680

    Who is the more delusional, Nicola or "winner" Corbyn?
    Aren't they both "winners"?
    Nicola needs to be careful, there is clearly an appetite for independence amongst~ 40% of the population. It is just the other 60% are learning to vote tactically against the ToriesSNP.
    So to keep seats she probably does need to keep the independence dream alive (Though it seems further away than ever now) - plus the Tory retox project with the DUP might help her to win back some seats.
    If the SNP is not for independence, then what is the point ?
    It's not so much, without independence, what is the point? So much as without independence what is their record in government?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    glw said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I'd wait and see what outrageous demands they have made before saying they "understand that they can't make outrageous demands".
    On the basis that if they're outrageous the Tories won't accept them and they'll never see the light of day
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Pulpstar said:

    If the SNP is not for independence, then what is the point ?

    On the other hand, if this is not the circumstance in which to push for independence, then when is?

    Despite short term movements in public opinion and the combined success of Ruth Davidson and Corbyn-mania, the fundamentals are all there to underpin a potential majority for independence some time next year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    Can someone explain to me why Tim Montgomerie is so c*ntish?

    He has spent the last 14 years criticising *every* Conservative leader for *everything* they do.

    (sorry for my language)
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The dilemma for moderate Labourites is not just, do Labour policies need to change for them to win, but do Labour policies need to change in case they win.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Good article - thanks for taking the time to write it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.

    And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
    The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
    Corbyn next PM nailed on in that case!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    not_on_fire said:

    nichomar said:

    Whatever happened to the concept that people elected representative to serve in the national interest. They seem to be going out of their way to destroy the last few shreds of creditably they may have had. It's now party party party. But maybe that was always so

    Politicians discovered that they don't get any gratitude for putting country over party from the electorate. Look at Nick Clegg.
    Putting party first only really counts if there are bad and foreseeable consequences. The general consensus on Clegg seems to be "honourable but naive"
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sean_F said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.

    And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
    The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
    Different people will judge in different ways.

    For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,874
    Casino_Royale said:

    Can someone explain to me why Tim Montgomerie is so c*ntish?

    He has spent the last 14 years criticising *every* Conservative leader for *everything* they do.

    (sorry for my language)

    He was Chief of Staff to IDS when IDS was leader, so he misses those halcyon days.

    That said, he's right about the sacking of Robert Halfon.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Casino_Royale said:

    Can someone explain to me why Tim Montgomerie is so c*ntish?

    He has spent the last 14 years criticising *every* Conservative leader for *everything* they do.

    (sorry for my language)

    It's a tie between him and osborne
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Casino_Royale said:

    Can someone explain to me why Tim Montgomerie is so c*ntish?

    He has spent the last 14 years criticising *every* Conservative leader for *everything* they do.

    (sorry for my language)

    He's a minor version of Farage in that the fact that the entire party didn't fall at his feet and acclaim his genius, making him leader immediately, is evidence of its decrepitude and moral corruption.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556


    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.

    I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.

    Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    not_on_fire said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    nunu said:

    Thanks for this, Lucian. Does the barnett formula work in the same way for N. Ireland as it does for Scotland, so if you increase NHS spending in England N.Ireland gets it's share?

    Yes. Block grant goes up if there's a general splurge.


    So if NHS spending were to increase by, say, £350m a week, how much would NI get?
    At the moment about £350m per week ....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Watching Panorama now -- God, Osborne is so petty.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.

    And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
    The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
    The two are not mutually exclusive.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    Just noticed Sir David Butler is signing off Twitter, for now.

    He is just a little bit of a legend.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,225
    The Conservatives are paying the price for stiffing their erstwhile coalition partners, the Lib Dems. They aren't going to be trusted again.Given both parties are in competition for the same voters, I'm not sure what they should have done differently. But it is a problem.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,391
    edited June 2017
    not_on_fire said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    nunu said:

    Thanks for this, Lucian. Does the barnett formula work in the same way for N. Ireland as it does for Scotland, so if you increase NHS spending in England N.Ireland gets it's share?

    Yes. Block grant goes up if there's a general splurge.


    So if NHS spending were to increase by, say, £350m a week, how much would NI get?
    Not much help, but this is the actual 'Barnett formula'.

    Extra funding in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland = Extra funding in England × Population proportion compared to England × The extent to which the relevant English departmental programme is comparable with the services carried out by the devolved administration

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    Very interesting, Lucian. Thank you.

    FWIW, and speaking as a passionate Unionist, I've wanted politics in NI to normalise for a long time and for Northern Ireland to play its full part in the governance of the United Kingdom.

    Perhaps this is a chance to demonstrate just how that can happen, to everyone's benefit, in the future.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    There is opportunity here for the Tories and DUP - triple lock back and dementia tax changes off the table as "compromises" for the negotiations.
    These are sensible and easy changes with or without the DUP. Triple lock costs nothing (God alone knows why it featured) and the dementia tax could, with a cap and some rational presentation, have been a real vote winner (putting home care on a parallel with residential care and greatly easing the burden of the latter). DO IT NOW.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    jonny83 said:

    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556


    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.

    I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.

    Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.

    It's fake, but you have to be impressed with the display they are putting on. But she's still a goner.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/874356447634755584
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    FF43 said:

    The Conservatives are paying the price for stiffing their erstwhile coalition partners, the Lib Dems. They aren't going to be trusted again.Given both parties are in competition for the same voters, I'm not sure what they should have done differently. But it is a problem.

    It's always been poor form for the Conservatives to campaign against the very principle of coalitions in both 2015 and 2017 despite having just been part of a very successful one.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,125
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/874346195824652289

    Fun House.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    The Tories have had a shambolic week. However, Labour's performance will now come under far closer and more detailed scrutiny because it's seen as a government in waiting. It's already in a mess on Brexit in the last 2 days. Further, the majority of Labour MPs still loath Corbyn and his circle and disagree with some of their flagship policies. It will not be long before Labour's apparent unity fractures (see Chris Leslie and McLuskey).

    Just think back 2 months to see how things can change quickly. If May gets a Queens Speech through and the Tories knuckle down to Government they are far from doomed.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,463
    alex. said:

    The dilemma for moderate Labourites is not just, do Labour policies need to change for them to win, but do Labour policies need to change in case they win.

    They ought to be thinking that, but judging from the behaviour of the so-called moderates queuing up to kiss Corbyn's arse they don't seem to be doing so.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2017
    It is like the prolonged standing ovation that IDS got at conference, 6 weeks before defenestration...

    jonny83 said:

    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556


    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.

    I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.

    Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.

  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Drutt said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/874346195824652289

    Fun House.
    LOL I was about to say the same thing! :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If compromise was in Jeremy Corbyn’s DNA, then he wouldn’t have spent three decades on the backbenches, condemning every effort a succession of despairing Labour leaders made to make their party more electable. Once electability became his problem, though, he seems to have picked up a taste for it. On the stump, a lifetime’s commitment to unilateral nuclear disarmament (even as a vice-chair of CND), retreated last year to “I wouldn’t personally use them” and last month, quite astonishingly, to something more like, “I certainly wouldn’t use them first”. Greenham Common it ain’t. More striking still was his response to the London Bridge attack, where having previously quite explicitly opposed a police shoot-to-kill policy, pretty much for ever, he now found himself explicitly supporting one. It was as if he had realised, finally, that to achieve broad electoral support you need to make the odd concession. “Took you long enough, Grandpa”, a generation of Blairites might have said.

    For Corbyn’s hard core, the real enemy has never been the Tories. They don’t really notice the Tories. Rather, they see a hated coalition of political and media Corbynsceptics who, they fervently believe, have smeared a good man as cranky and unelectable because it is easier than opposing his policies. This simply isn’t true. Labour didn’t win this election, but Corbyn did far better than almost anybody ever expected, probably including him. He didn’t do well because his critics were wrong, but because, belatedly, he realised they were absolutely right.

    Want to stop people deriding you as a disaster? The very best strategy is to stop being one. Look at him now. It really works. Somebody should tell Theresa May.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/corbyn-learnt-to-compromise-may-didnt-0cbbsf857
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I agree entirely.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited June 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    It is like the prolonged standing ovation that IDS got at conference, 6 weeks before defenestration...

    The robotic woman is here to stay, and she's upgrading her software.
  • MattyNethMattyNeth Posts: 60
    jonny83 said:

    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556


    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.

    I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.

    Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.

    I suspect, very mutely, that it's a fake display of unity. No one, lest of all the Tories, want another leadership election/general election any time soon.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,452
    Many thanks Lucien for that interesting article.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    MattyNeth said:

    jonny83 said:

    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556


    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.

    I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.

    Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.

    I suspect, very mutely, that it's a fake display of unity. No one, lest of all the Tories, want another leadership election/general election any time soon.
    It would be good to see some new VI polls beyond the one we had on Saturday.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    It is like the prolonged standing ovation that IDS got at conference, 6 weeks before defenestration...

    The robotic woman is here to stay, and she's upgrading her software.
    Is that a BA style software upgrade?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,180
    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Can someone explain to me why Tim Montgomerie is so c*ntish?

    He has spent the last 14 years criticising *every* Conservative leader for *everything* they do.

    (sorry for my language)

    He's a minor version of Farage in that the fact that the entire party didn't fall at his feet and acclaim his genius, making him leader immediately, is evidence of its decrepitude and moral corruption.
    I'd forgotten all about him.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    edited June 2017
    MattyNeth said:

    jonny83 said:

    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556


    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.

    I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.

    Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.

    I suspect, very mutely, that it's a fake display of unity. No one, lest of all the Tories, want another leadership election/general election any time soon.
    Could well be that. But usually fake displays there is someone not on message or someone who is so disgruntled they don't care about being on message. None of that so far, but this is the Conservative Party, ruthless is its middle name so she could be deposed any time.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Laura K is incredibly irritating. It is getting to the point where I can't watch BBC News in case she pops up
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,452
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/874320761535815680

    Stephen Daisley - The Night of the Long Claymores

    "Nicola Sturgeon took a punt on Brexit swinging the public behind independence. When that didn’t happen she figured that tagging Ruth Davidson with the most unpopular welfare reforms would shore up the Nationalist vote. In the final days of the election, recognising that this was not working, she absurdly posited that only a vote for her party could get Labour into power at UK level. The real coalition of chaos was between Mrs May and Miss Sturgeon, two leaders in the grips of hubris who led their parties from positions of strength to humiliating reversals."
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    DanSmith said:

    jonny83 said:

    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556


    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.

    I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.

    Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.

    It's fake, but you have to be impressed with the display they are putting on. But she's still a goner.
    It's Corbyn wot's a gooner
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I agree entirely.
    Jesus...if the Tories hadn't become so pathetic overnight you'd cry....

    Lads, you have now become more desperate than the very nadir of the Major Govt...and there is sweet FA you can do about it...

    2 fucking vanity elections.. you deserve to pay a high price indeed.....

    Bring back fox hunting and fracking and hard Brexit and arse licking Trump and gerrymandering and austerity and privatisation of health...all gone....the Tories make me want to vomit in this risible dance of death with the DUP which could last for five years...
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,125
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/874356447634755584

    I know some former colleagues of his and understand Jones was not really considered committed to the law, because he was always going places in the Labour party. I think his departure happened one electoral cycle sooner than anticipated, though.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,071
    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.

    And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
    The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
    Different people will judge in different ways.

    For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
    Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?

    Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,838
    Bobajob_PB said:

    Laura K is incredibly irritating. It is getting to the point where I can't watch BBC News in case she pops up

    She did her best during the campaign, probably just stopped Corbyn from winning to be fair :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    tyson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I agree entirely.
    Jesus...if the Tories hadn't become so pathetic overnight you'd cry....

    Lads, you have now become more desperate than the very nadir of the Major Govt...and there is sweet FA you can do about it...

    2 fucking vanity elections.. you deserve to pay a high price indeed.....

    Bring back fox hunting and fracking and hard Brexit and arse licking Trump and gerrymandering and austerity and privatisation of health...all gone....the Tories make me want to vomit in this risible dance of death with the DUP which could last for five years...
    How many have you had tonight, this time?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,225
    Theuniondivvie said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    nunu said:

    Thanks for this, Lucian. Does the barnett formula work in the same way for N. Ireland as it does for Scotland, so if you increase NHS spending in England N.Ireland gets it's share?

    Yes. Block grant goes up if there's a general splurge.


    So if NHS spending were to increase by, say, £350m a week, how much would NI get?
    Not much help, but this is the actual 'Barnett formula'.

    Extra funding in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland = Extra funding in England × Population proportion compared to England × The extent to which the relevant English departmental programme is comparable with the services carried out by the devolved administration

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula
    That's it. The original expenditure amount is locked in but any increase or decrease is applied proportionate to the population. Barnett's idea was that over time expenditure in each nation should approach the same per capita. It hasn't quite happened because the population has increased faster in England than elsewhere. Incidentally the block grant isn't the same as the identifiable expenditure per head figures that show a much bigger per capita variation. Those include UK wide spending on UK wide rules.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,452
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    Agreed. Maybe its time to send the Westminster Lobby on a tour of our devolved Parliaments to broaden and sharpen their political knowledge outside the Westminster bubble? They have been woefully behind the times about the current situation in Scotland for a while now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Can someone explain to me why Tim Montgomerie is so c*ntish?

    He has spent the last 14 years criticising *every* Conservative leader for *everything* they do.

    (sorry for my language)

    He was Chief of Staff to IDS when IDS was leader, so he misses those halcyon days.

    That said, he's right about the sacking of Robert Halfon.
    You know what they say about stopped clocks..
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,173
    Oo, I've just thought - Heathrow.

    End of the line for R3?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SandyRentool said:

    Oo, I've just thought - Heathrow.

    End of the line for R3?

    HS2 as well?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    edited June 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sean_F said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.

    And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
    The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
    Corbyn next PM nailed on in that case!
    You favoured the coalition and, as I understand it, voted Conservative in GE2010.

    Why have you become a socialist cheerleader since? Bitter about the NHS?

    (genuinely interested)
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Chris said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I don't really expect them to. But the Google quoting is hurting the Tories already
    It will blow over.
    The damage - particularly with younger people - will already be done.

    And after the quote-googling gets tired there will be the lying-in-a-wait-for-quote game, the provocative "make him say something crazy" interview question, the hidden microphone trick...
    The Conservatives will be judged on their competence in office, not their dealings with the DUP.
    Different people will judge in different ways.

    For some key demographics, there will be a contamination and retoxification - however undeserved or illogical or unpragmatic such a judgment may be, the optics people are getting at the moment involve DUP "dinosaur quotes" and the idea these people are seen by Conservatives as natural bedfellows rather than crazy outdated nutters (unfair, but if that's the only information hitting a typical social media feed then that's how it looks) who are totally beyond the pale.
    Can someone explain what's so unfair about quoting the things politicians say?

    Presumably this is something new since the election campaign?
    You've got me loyal orange lodgin'! :D

    I quite agree. My point is that SeanF may find it unfair to judge the Tories by a selection of DUP quotes (and as Lucian points out in the thread, there is much more to the DUP than such quotes) but I know what is going to go viral on social media, and it isn't the DUP's hard-headed pragmatism or the finer details of their healthcare policy..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Can someone explain to me why Tim Montgomerie is so c*ntish?

    He has spent the last 14 years criticising *every* Conservative leader for *everything* they do.

    (sorry for my language)

    He's a minor version of Farage in that the fact that the entire party didn't fall at his feet and acclaim his genius, making him leader immediately, is evidence of its decrepitude and moral corruption.
    Ha!

    +1
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    AndyJS said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Oo, I've just thought - Heathrow.

    End of the line for R3?

    HS2 as well?
    Both should (and will) go ahead.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    jonny83 said:

    MattyNeth said:

    jonny83 said:

    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556


    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything? I know I know the buck stops with her, her chiefs of staff and Crosby disagreed on the Social Care policy and she went with it when she could have axed it.

    I still think she is finished longer term and they won't want her leading the party into the next election but if she works at it she could leave with her reputation repaired somewhat within the party. She is going to have to work very hard at this, but it's not impossible.

    Going to be an interesting few weeks and months. If she can get the DUP to back Confidence and Supply and pass a Queen's Speech she could be here for a while. Let's see how it pans out in the next few weeks but the decision not to commit regicide and have a leadership election might prove smart.

    I suspect, very mutely, that it's a fake display of unity. No one, lest of all the Tories, want another leadership election/general election any time soon.
    Could well be that. But usually fake displays there is someone not on message or someone who is so disgruntled they don't care about being on message. None of that so far, but this is the Conservative Party, ruthless is its middle name so she could be deposed any time.
    None of them want to be PM now , that is why they remain 'genuinely' loyal. They either have to gamble on winning a second election, which is by no means assured, or they tough it out with no election, and negotiate with Brussels with even less mandate than May, and all the inevitable toxicity of a weak minority government gets put on their shoulders. No tory wants to be PM until post 2019, so May is being publically supported genuinely until the very moment they defenestrate her.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    Pulpstar said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    Laura K is incredibly irritating. It is getting to the point where I can't watch BBC News in case she pops up

    She did her best during the campaign, probably just stopped Corbyn from winning to be fair :)
    Thank Christ.

    We didn't just dodge a bullet, we dodged an entire front line of entrenched machine guns with the British people very slowly marching toward them.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    jonny83 said:

    Everyone raving about May from the 22 meeting. Either they are putting on a fake display of unity or she actually played a blinder today and they bought into it a bit.

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874352134485143556

    Wonder if there is a mindset among some that she was more badly advised than anything

    I wonder if there is a mindset that the wisest thing to do at this point is to let destiny play out. If she is a success they can all say they backed her. If something goes wrong then they can all say that they gave her a chance but regretfully...

    Why challenge her now? Who would want they job given the mess we are in?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Casino_Royale said:

    tyson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would far rather that the main Unionist party was the UUP. But, the modern DUP is pragmatic, and understand that they can't make outrageous demands.

    I agree entirely.
    Jesus...if the Tories hadn't become so pathetic overnight you'd cry....

    Lads, you have now become more desperate than the very nadir of the Major Govt...and there is sweet FA you can do about it...

    2 fucking vanity elections.. you deserve to pay a high price indeed.....

    Bring back fox hunting and fracking and hard Brexit and arse licking Trump and gerrymandering and austerity and privatisation of health...all gone....the Tories make me want to vomit in this risible dance of death with the DUP which could last for five years...
    How many have you had tonight, this time?
    Doesn't he start an hour earlier?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    Laura K is incredibly irritating. It is getting to the point where I can't watch BBC News in case she pops up

    She did her best during the campaign, probably just stopped Corbyn from winning to be fair :)
    Thank Christ.

    We didn't just dodge a bullet, we dodged an entire front line of entrenched machine guns with the British people very slowly marching toward them.
    but for how long is what is worrying me...
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Pulpstar said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    Laura K is incredibly irritating. It is getting to the point where I can't watch BBC News in case she pops up

    She did her best during the campaign, probably just stopped Corbyn from winning to be fair :)
    The shame is that BBC News is otherwise okay. Then she appears. It's like lying in bed on the weekend engrossed in the papers, only for the cat to wee the bed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Stewart Jackson complaining about his redundancy pay had me chuckling for the first time in days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,033
    edited June 2017
    Some good news for May, she is the only foreign leader both Clinton and Trump voters have a favourable opinion of according to a new US PPP poll. Clinton voters give Trudeau, Macron, Merkel and May net positive ratings, Trump voters only give May a net positive rating, the rest a negative rating, so she may be able to make a bit of money on the US lecture circuit once she departs No 10

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/06/plurality-of-voters-think-trump-obstructed-justice.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,761
    F*ck yeah. Raab is a minister again.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Does anyone know if Paisley's War against Sodomy actually reduced the amount of sodomy/sodomites in Northern Ireland?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,874
    Casino_Royale said:

    AndyJS said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Oo, I've just thought - Heathrow.

    End of the line for R3?

    HS2 as well?
    Both should (and will) go ahead.
    I suspect both will not happen.

    I suspect the money will be spent on the young and housing.

    Not only is it good optics, the world will cope with my 2 hr journey from Manchester to London not being reduced by 20 mins
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,782
    "Lucian Fletcher is a longstanding contributor to PB."

    He is actually a very fine contributor to PB, as long as you don't follow his racing tips!
  • AR404AR404 Posts: 21
    steve_garner said:

    The Tories have had a shambolic week. However, Labour's performance will now come under far closer and more detailed scrutiny because it's seen as a government in waiting. It's already in a mess on Brexit in the last 2 days. Further, the majority of Labour MPs still loath Corbyn and his circle and disagree with some of their flagship policies. It will not be long before Labour's apparent unity fractures (see Chris Leslie and McLuskey).

    Just think back 2 months to see how things can change quickly. If May gets a Queens Speech through and the Tories knuckle down to Government they are far from doomed.

    Exactly, the complacency could creep into Labour ranks quickly. And if/when it comes down to Brexit I really can't imagine the Remainer wing of Labour putting up with Corbyn/McDonnell and their commitment to leave the single market. And if they compromise over that, a leakage of support to a renewed UKIP could lead us back to a 2015 situation
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    AndyJS said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Oo, I've just thought - Heathrow.

    End of the line for R3?

    HS2 as well?
    That seems to be the project that never gets mentioned. I suspect if there was a referendum on the subject those opposing this white elephant might sneak home.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Casino_Royale said:

    AndyJS said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Oo, I've just thought - Heathrow.

    End of the line for R3?

    HS2 as well?
    Both should (and will) go ahead.
    HS2 is too late to cancel now, you can cancel the extensions etc though.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    Laura K is incredibly irritating. It is getting to the point where I can't watch BBC News in case she pops up

    She did her best during the campaign, probably just stopped Corbyn from winning to be fair :)
    Thank Christ.

    We didn't just dodge a bullet, we dodged an entire front line of entrenched machine guns with the British people very slowly marching toward them.
    Even Tory supporters concede she is in the tank.
This discussion has been closed.

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