politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why TMay must stay – for now
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why TMay must stay – for now
A minority government propped up on a vote-by-vote basis by a minor party where the government, even including the ally, only has a majority of about 13 (once Sinn Fein are excluded), is about as strong and stable as a three-legged gazelle roller-skating across ice.
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It doesn't work.
Brexit is going to involves a bunch of very serious trade-offs, which have been barely even acknowledged in the manifesto. Nobody knows WTF the British want - it's not even clear that the British know what they want.
The negotiations are going to involve both sides selling unpalatable things to their domestic audiences. But the other side isn't going to do that if they're dealing with a lame duck who could pull out at any time, and be replaced by somebody who won't accept the deal that they just took fire clearing the way for.
Meanwhile if the leader is a dead woman walking, she's going to be vulnerable at any point to 15% of her party not liking the sound of the things she's negotiating and deciding it's the right time for a challenge.
They need to stop faffing around and choose somebody else as leader. Just pick one, they're all pretty good.
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Second like the country's interest in all this.0
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The problem is none of them have a mandate after the Tories ran the most presidential campaign ever.
She needs to stay for now0 -
I thought it was clear what the ,British electorate want. 48% of the single market, 48% of free movement ...........edmundintokyo said:It doesn't work.
Brexit is going to involves a bunch of very serious trade-offs, which have been barely even acknowledged in the manifesto. Nobody knows WTF the British want - it's not even clear that the British know what they want.
The negotiations are going to involve both sides selling unpalatable things to their domestic audiences. But the other side isn't going to do that if they're dealing with a lame duck who could pull out at any time, and be replaced by somebody who won't accept the deal that they just took fire clearing the way for.
Meanwhile if the leader is a dead woman walking, she's going to be vulnerable at any point to 15% of her party not liking the sound of the things she's negotiating and deciding it's the right time for a challenge.
They need to stop faffing around and choose somebody else as leader. Just pick one, they're all pretty good.0 -
The problem is that Mrs May is incompetent for what is generally believed to be the most tricky negotiations the UK has faced since WWW2. Incompetent because Mrs May doesn't have the temperament and skills for negotiation and incompetent because she doesn't have the authority to make the calls.
The best thing in the circumstances is that someone is given the task to negotiate a minimum change Brexit over the next two years. Full FOM, single market etc. this parliament will have just one task, which is to do Brexit with the least damage and the greatest consensus within the political system. Once we have left, parties can fight an election on further disconnection if they wish0 -
She called an election saying she needed a mandate and if she lost 6 seats Corbyn would be doing the negotiation. She didn't get it. She has an unmandate. She has a man don't date. She has a mandate to go away.asjohnstone said:The problem is none of them have a mandate after the Tories ran the most presidential campaign ever.
She needs to stay for now0 -
Littlejohn is going IN on May:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4590304/LITTLEJOHN-Theresa-managed-make-Corbyn-look-good.html
Some of the 'best' bits of the piece:
Scratch the surface, though, and the absurd notion that she was ‘strong and stable’ never stood up to serious scrutiny. Ask anyone who had dealings with her during the six years she was Home Secretary. ‘Bloody difficult woman’ wasn’t meant as a compliment. May earned a reputation for dithering and caution, bordering on cowardice, coupled with a stubborn refusal to take advice from outside her own sycophantic inner circle. .
[....]
We’ll never know for sure if she really did call this election to scupper the Remainers. My firm suspicion is that she saw a golden opportunity to reinforce her grip on power and took it, assuming that Labour was unelectable and the result was never in doubt.
Gradually, the air of invincibility and inevitability she had tried to cultivate withered and died. The truth is that it was always a mistake to confuse her massive early leads in the opinion polls with any wild excitement for her personally. Those of us who decided to vote for her anyway did so without enthusiasm.
This was the worst performance since my own beloved Tottenham Hotspur managed to finish third in a two-horse race for the Premiership two seasons ago. Pretty impressive, given that at one stage Theresa was supposed to be on course for a majority in the region of 140. If the campaign had lasted any longer, there may have been the nightmare prospect of Corbyn being installed as Prime Minister, bolstered by Wee Burney’s Toytown Tartanistas, the Lib Dems and the Welsh cottage burners. Miraculously, though, she’s still there, thanks to Ulster’s Democratic Unionists and the magnificent Tory revival in Scotland — which is some small consolation to those of us who believe in the Union.
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Not only did she manage to lose the Tories their working majority, potentially scuppering Brexit in the process, she has contrived, astonishingly, to make Jeremy Corbyn an attractive alternative Prime Minister in the eyes of 40 per cent of the British electorate. A campaign which began with her intending to drive a stake through the heart of Labour has ended with her giving it the kiss of life. And nobody saw that coming.
Only a matter of time before she goes. The right-wing press has turned on her, big time.0 -
That's the problem, no one has a good mandate to govern. It's all a bit of a shambles reallyedmundintokyo said:
She called an election saying she needed a mandate and if she lost 6 seats Corbyn would be doing the negotiation. She didn't get it. She has an unmandate. She has a man don't date. She has a mandate to go away.asjohnstone said:The problem is none of them have a mandate after the Tories ran the most presidential campaign ever.
She needs to stay for now0 -
The practical reality is that nobody needs a mandate from the voters. They need one from the Tory MPs and membership, because they're the ones with the power to fire them during the negotiations. May doesn't have it. She has the opposite of it.asjohnstone said:
That's the problem, no one has a good mandate to govern. It's all a bit of a shambles reallyedmundintokyo said:
She called an election saying she needed a mandate and if she lost 6 seats Corbyn would be doing the negotiation. She didn't get it. She has an unmandate. She has a man don't date. She has a mandate to go away.asjohnstone said:The problem is none of them have a mandate after the Tories ran the most presidential campaign ever.
She needs to stay for now0 -
I switched the internet off at 9.30pm on Thursday night and took a Sleeping Pill. This was the first General Election of my adult life time I was not to do an all nighter. I was so convinced of a Tory Landslide, but more importantly a landslide rewarding *that* campaign that I just couldn't face it.
Late on Friday I googled a couple of local seats and intrigued at the pattern... Then finally the full results popped up in a link by accident. I was stunned. It's even more shocking that #,indyref Brexit and Trump.
Obviously it's utterly hilarious. It's like something from Greek myth. Mat deserves her slow and paid full death after that truly nauseating campaign. But ... 40% for Corbynism ? Brexit negotiated by a minority government ? The DUP as NI heads toward Direct Rule ? It's catastrophic. What on earth are British voters thinking ?
I'm completely conflicted. The Wicked Witch has been slain in a truly Fairytale ending. But at the end of the first chapter not the book. Something darker clearly awaits.0 -
Here's this rather optimistic piece from PB Tory favourite, Fasial Islam:
http://news.sky.com/story/matter-of-time-before-theresa-mays-minority-government-crumbles-10910572
One Conservative MP thinks she will last just six months. Another has called for her to fire her top aides.
Minority governments can last: Scotland has seen examples of that. But normally it requires avoiding controversial legislation that will test the discipline of a party.
The combination of no majority, a split party and having to pass dozens of pieces of controversial Brexit legislation seems completely unsustainable.
It is a matter of when, not if, it falls apart.0 -
Thanks David. Good thread as ever.
I agree, now is not the time for her to go. Certainty is needed to get the negotiations on Brexit to a substantive position at the vey least, or there is a very real risk of handing even more advantage to the left.
She needs to widen the circle of influence, and give others a chance to shine too. Otherwise the field for next leader is painfully thin. If Corbyn widens his circle now and includes the moderates he could extend his appeal further than the 40% he got on Thursday - May needs to anticipate it and echo it.
Off topic, not sure if posted already last night, but this is an interesting read on the campaign targeting/leader visits:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40222733
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But that's not enough because the only think that matters now is Brexit and the Conservative leader, whoever that is doesn't have the votes to implement a particular settlement, even with the DUP on board. It only takes a few Headbangers to resist or a bunch to rebel with the opposition and it's scuppered. Brexit will have to be negotiated in consensus with the opposition. Essentially the Conservatives implement the Labour plan and can then see off any opposition within its own ranks. Because of this need to work with Labour, however informally, the Conservatives will also need to avoid any other contentious legislation that could derail it.edmundintokyo said:
The practical reality is that nobody needs a mandate from the voters. They need one from the Tory membership, because they're the ones with the power to fire them during the negotiations. May doesn't have it. She has the opposite of it.asjohnstone said:
That's the problem, no one has a good mandate to govern. It's all a bit of a shambles reallyedmundintokyo said:
She called an election saying she needed a mandate and if she lost 6 seats Corbyn would be doing the negotiation. She didn't get it. She has an unmandate. She has a man don't date. She has a mandate to go away.asjohnstone said:The problem is none of them have a mandate after the Tories ran the most presidential campaign ever.
She needs to stay for now0 -
Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..0
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It's very easy to come up with reasons why May carrying on won't work. The trouble is it's very easy to come up with any number of reasons why any plausible alternative won't work either. And changing leader won't alter the fundamental weakness of the PM's (WHOEVER it is) position. Brexit negotiations will have to involve reaching out to the Opposition. But is there any reason to think the Opposition will put country interest before party interest either? They seem to think they've got a mandate for Government themselves.0
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But it was established that Teresa May was the undisputed best person to lead the Conservative Party. How is replacing her with someone even worse going to help them?SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
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Hasn't this frightful woman already done enough damage ?
It's perfectly clear that she has to go, by hook or by crook.0 -
A lot of people thought that and they were wrong.Icarus said:
But it was established that Teresa May was the undisputed best person to lead the Conservative Party. How is replacing her with someone worse going to help them?SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
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She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
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She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.0 -
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.0 -
I agree. The manifesto is clearly a good basis to work from.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
It's time I think for several from the back benches to return.
Cooper for Abbott is an obvious one.
I'd like to see Liz Kendall return too - maybe health? Could be a nice statement of unity to get some of his leadership rivals into cabinet.
Ed Miliband - perhaps to DECC?
Labour also need to be testing where the compromises are for coalition with the lib Dems and perhaps other parties also. I think they could easily assemble a majority for single market membership.
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At some stage the Conservative party has to start putting the country and its best interests first. Boris Johnson would be a disastrous Prime Minister, disdained, despised and ridiculed across the world at a time when we need to be rebuilding the bridges with Europe the May and Cameron governments have burned, and creating deeper bonds with countries elsewhere in the world. The Tories need to cut-off the deluded Brexit right from influence and prioritise creating a country more at ease with itself, instead of one that is utterly divided. Will they? Not a chance.-1
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what are you complaining about doc ?foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
5 years of DUP governance is just what this country needs0 -
Time will tell. I have no doubt there will be goodwill at the moment. But I think people have short memories and have forgotten that many of the problems were caused by the incompetence/in capability of Corbyn and his leadership team. That's not going to change. Despite all the Tory problems there should still be plenty of reasons to think the situation in Labour will not be a bed of roses over the next few months, especially as with the prospect of power so close it will feel like it matters.The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.
That was one of the shocking features of the Tory campaign - that there was infinite wealth of material on Corbyn's total unsuitability as a leader of his party, and yet they didn't use ANY of it. voters could dismiss 30 year old stories from his time as a backbencher. It would have been harder to dismiss 1 year old stories from his time as a leader. Then again as nobody thought he could win it might not have made a difference.
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Well this Con/DUP arrangement should be interesting:
https://twitter.com/me_stafford/status/873209534885617664
Don't think the Cons will go near LGBT rights and abortion as with the number of seats they have, they don't have wriggle room for anything controversial.0 -
Chuka is good on TV - but still a bit irritated with him for calling members petulant children!The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.0 -
Agreed - the left has won. Corbyn must now show real leadership, reach out to other parts of the party and build a shadow front bench that makes use of all the talent Labour has. He needs to show voters that Labour is a serious government in waiting.The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.
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Good article David. Your prediction the other night will have psephologists baffled for years. Ever thought of starting a polling company?
Maybe its the time of morning but who is the 'ineligable big star'? Surely you don't mean Ruth Davidson? I know Boris and Davis look like thin gruel but the idea of Ruth is ridiculous. Though affter all that was said about Scottish leaders when Labour chose one it would be pleasantly ironic.....
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A rat would like to make it known that it is willing to return to the ship which, to its surprise, isn't sinking.The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.0 -
Read the BBC article. Huge numbers of Labour MPs have been re-elected promising to prioritise ending of freedom of movement over single market. It is one of the big failures of analysis of this result that this election showed there was no mandate to leave the single market. The point is that the Tories and Labour campaigned on the same position on this so for those voters who are opposed it just wasn't a party political issue. The "revenge of the remainders" doesn't change that.rkrkrk said:
I agree. The manifesto is clearly a good basis to work from.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
It's time I think for several from the back benches to return.
Cooper for Abbott is an obvious one.
I'd like to see Liz Kendall return too - maybe health? Could be a nice statement of unity to get some of his leadership rivals into cabinet.
Ed Miliband - perhaps to DECC?
Labour also need to be testing where the compromises are for coalition with the lib Dems and perhaps other parties also. I think they could easily assemble a majority for single market membership.
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The Tories would do themselves and the country a big favour by paying a lot less attention to the right wing press. You cannot govern in the national interest if, like May, you build policies solely to get good headlines in the Mail, Sun, Express and Telegraph.The_Apocalypse said:Littlejohn is going IN on May:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4590304/LITTLEJOHN-Theresa-managed-make-Corbyn-look-good.html
Some of the 'best' bits of the piece:
Scratch the surface, though, and the absurd notion that she was ‘strong and stable’ never stood up to serious scrutiny. Ask anyone who had dealings with her during the six years she was Home Secretary. ‘Bloody difficult woman’ wasn’t meant as a compliment. May earned a reputation for dithering and caution, bordering on cowardice, coupled with a stubborn refusal to take advice from outside her own sycophantic inner circle. .
[....]
We’ll never know for sure if she really did call this election to scupper the Remainers. My firm suspicion is that she saw a golden opportunity to reinforce her grip on power and took it, assuming that Labour was unelectable and the result was never in doubt.
Gradually, the air of invincibility and inevitability she had tried to cultivate withered and died. The truth is that it was always a mistake to confuse her massive early leads in the opinion polls with any wild excitement for her personally. Those of us who decided to vote for her anyway did so without enthusiasm.
This was the worst performance since my own beloved Tottenham Hotspur managed to finish third in a two-horse race for the Premiership two seasons ago. Pretty impressive, given that at one stage Theresa was supposed to be on course for a majority in the region of 140. If the campaign had lasted any longer, there may have been the nightmare prospect of Corbyn being installed as Prime Minister, bolstered by Wee Burney’s Toytown Tartanistas, the Lib Dems and the Welsh cottage burners. Miraculously, though, she’s still there, thanks to Ulster’s Democratic Unionists and the magnificent Tory revival in Scotland — which is some small consolation to those of us who believe in the Union.
[...]
Not only did she manage to lose the Tories their working majority, potentially scuppering Brexit in the process, she has contrived, astonishingly, to make Jeremy Corbyn an attractive alternative Prime Minister in the eyes of 40 per cent of the British electorate. A campaign which began with her intending to drive a stake through the heart of Labour has ended with her giving it the kiss of life. And nobody saw that coming.
Only a matter of time before she goes. The right-wing press has turned on her, big time.
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She's one mandate short of a negotiate.edmundintokyo said:
She called an election saying she needed a mandate and if she lost 6 seats Corbyn would be doing the negotiation. She didn't get it. She has an unmandate. She has a man don't date. She has a mandate to go away.asjohnstone said:The problem is none of them have a mandate after the Tories ran the most presidential campaign ever.
She needs to stay for now0 -
most of the nonsense posted by the press is westminster bubble stuffThe_Apocalypse said:Well this Con/DUP arrangement should be interesting:
https://twitter.com/me_stafford/status/873209534885617664
Don't think the Cons will go near LGBT rights and abortion as with the number of seats they have, they don't have wriggle room for anything controversial.
the DUP are primarily about money, pork barrellers
they only inflict the social misery on their own patch
as ever I find the sudden interest interest in NI - which most london types have avoided for years - tedious hypocrisy0 -
Good Morning PBers Worldwide & In Ulster
What's the latest news from PB Tories and their Coalition of Crackpots?
Will we shortly have in the HoC the Conservatives MP's and their DUP best buddies humming "The Sash My Father Wore" during PMQ's ?0 -
Now that the dust has settled it seems clear to me that the coalition / confidence and supply arrangement the Tories are in isn't with the DUP - its with Labour.
The ONLY issue facing this parliament is Brexit. Everything else will have to wait. There is no consensus in the Tory ranks about what Brexit means, so many want hard Brexit and bog off Brussels, the rest want a softer deal. Labour have been very clear that we want a Brexit which protects jobs and rights and that means full access to the single market - which we will only get by being a member of the EEA.
So as ZombieMay is allowed to front up our "negotiations" in Brussels - we say "giz it", they laugh - its how she gets it through Parliament that's front of her political genius mind. And as she knows the DUP can't allow hard brexit and neither can half her MPs including her Brexit Secretary she's too dead to move, its Labour's support she needs.
Never mind the price that Arlene Foster will charge for confidence and supply from the DUP. Think about the price Labour will charge for Brexit support. May will have to implement a whole pile of Labour friendly stuff to keep us on board - because she knows that if she doesn't and the government falls there is enough of a consensus in the house for a minority Labour government to get things like Brexit through.0 -
Yep.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed - the left has won. Corbyn must now show real leadership, reach out to other parts of the party and build a shadow front bench that makes use of all the talent Labour has. He needs to show voters that Labour is a serious government in waiting.The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.
We need Cooper, Chuka, Ed M all back in the cabinet. Those who have done well, who should be kept are Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, and Barry Gardiner. Also would like to see Clive Lewis back in the Shadow Cabinet. Maybe even roles for Jess Philipps, Stella Creasy, and Lisa Nandy too.....?0 -
you jacobites may need to keep a low profile for a whileJackW said:Good Morning PBers Worldwide & In Ulster
What's the latest news from PB Tories and their Coalition of Crackpots?
Will we shortly have in the HoC the Conservatives MP's and their DUP best buddies humming "The Sash My Father Wore" during PMQ's ?
I suggest 5 years of exile in France0 -
I think it's wonderful that a leader who naturally prefers acting unilaterally and in narrow self-interest is going to have to consult endlessly with different and conflicting interests to reach brokered ways forward. We might even by accident get some good decisions as a result.
Britain doesn't have the time for a Conservative party leadership election, with the Brexit clock ticking, so Theresa May is stuck in the job. She may endure there a long time. John Major was labelled in office but not in power in 1993. He only left office at the electorate's hands in 1997.0 -
Labour's official Brexit position is have cake and eat it. Like everything else is a wish list that doesn't take account of reality.RochdalePioneers said:Now that the dust has settled it seems clear to me that the coalition / confidence and supply arrangement the Tories are in isn't with the DUP - its with Labour.
The ONLY issue facing this parliament is Brexit. Everything else will have to wait. There is no consensus in the Tory ranks about what Brexit means, so many want hard Brexit and bog off Brussels, the rest want a softer deal. Labour have been very clear that we want a Brexit which protects jobs and rights and that means full access to the single market - which we will only get by being a member of the EEA.
So as ZombieMay is allowed to front up our "negotiations" in Brussels - we say "giz it", they laugh - its how she gets it through Parliament that's front of her political genius mind. And as she knows the DUP can't allow hard brexit and neither can half her MPs including her Brexit Secretary she's too dead to move, its Labour's support she needs.
Never mind the price that Arlene Foster will charge for confidence and supply from the DUP. Think about the price Labour will charge for Brexit support. May will have to implement a whole pile of Labour friendly stuff to keep us on board - because she knows that if she doesn't and the government falls there is enough of a consensus in the house for a minority Labour government to get things like Brexit through.
0 -
I don't have any particular grievance against the DUP. I have Presbyterian roots, some from Ireland. The DUP are not going to be imposing their social views on Great Britain, neither the DUP or Conservatives would want that.Alanbrooke said:
what are you complaining about doc ?foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
5 years of DUP governance is just what this country needs
It will be the Irish border question that now looks like the most problematic of the 3 initial issues. The status of EU nationals and the Danegeld are minor bites in comparison.
The implications of the government no longer being an honest broker in Stormont are serious. Who'd have thought that the collapse of a green subsidy scheme might matter so much.
0 -
Corbyn might frighten them but obviously when they believe there is no risk from him 40% are willing to vote for the generic concept no matter how irrational it seems to the other 60%.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
The national election campaign degenerated into a disaster. The local campaigns were often the best ever. But they relied on the national stuff being half decent and as the national mood changed they were swamped.
David Herdson is quite right for the very short term but we will need someone else. I have been a sacrificial lamb plenty of times in elections and I would like to fight next year's locals with a credible national leader so I would have some prospect of holding my seat.
We got James Airey within 777 votes of taking Tim Farron out - I'm sorry, responsibility for those 777 Farron votes rests more with the Conservative national campaign than it does with us.0 -
Politics, like most things in life is about confidence, once you've lost it its very difficult to get it back, mainly because your opponents smell blood. May has completely lost her's, yesterday she looked shattered. The tories are ruthless, no one person is more important than the party, she'll be gone soon whether she likes it or not.0
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I think it is naive to think that Corbyn and his supporters are going to welcome all these people back. It would just be setting Labour up for a moderate takeover as they left have to be squeezed out to make way.The_Apocalypse said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed - the left has won. Corbyn must now show real leadership, reach out to other parts of the party and build a shadow front bench that makes use of all the talent Labour has. He needs to show voters that Labour is a serious government in waiting.The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.
We need Cooper, Chuka, Ed M all back in the cabinet. Those who have done well, who should be kept are Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, and Barry Gardiner. Also would like to see Clive Lewis back in the Shadow Cabinet. Maybe even roles for Jess Philipps, Stella Creasy, and Lisa Nandy too.....?0 -
@theobertram: A clip worth finding:
Theresa May, Hansard, 20 July 2006: "The Prime Minister is a lame duck and the Government are in paralysis."0 -
I think there's a lot of truth in that. The effect of a hung Parliament is to convert Brexit from a private Conservative affair into a cross-party discussion. That's a big reason why I was hoping for a hung Parliament.RochdalePioneers said:Now that the dust has settled it seems clear to me that the coalition / confidence and supply arrangement the Tories are in isn't with the DUP - its with Labour.
The ONLY issue facing this parliament is Brexit. Everything else will have to wait. There is no consensus in the Tory ranks about what Brexit means, so many want hard Brexit and bog off Brussels, the rest want a softer deal. Labour have been very clear that we want a Brexit which protects jobs and rights and that means full access to the single market - which we will only get by being a member of the EEA.
So as ZombieMay is allowed to front up our "negotiations" in Brussels - we say "giz it", they laugh - its how she gets it through Parliament that's front of her political genius mind. And as she knows the DUP can't allow hard brexit and neither can half her MPs including her Brexit Secretary she's too dead to move, its Labour's support she needs.
Never mind the price that Arlene Foster will charge for confidence and supply from the DUP. Think about the price Labour will charge for Brexit support. May will have to implement a whole pile of Labour friendly stuff to keep us on board - because she knows that if she doesn't and the government falls there is enough of a consensus in the house for a minority Labour government to get things like Brexit through.
PS thanks again for your precise predictions on your area. You're one of the few pb posters whose reputation has been enormously enhanced after the election result.0 -
There is a deal to be done around free movement. Even inside the EU there are measures that could be taken that the government has chosen not to take.alex. said:
Read the BBC article. Huge numbers of Labour MPs have been re-elected promising to prioritise ending of freedom of movement over single market. It is one of the big failures of analysis of this result that this election showed there was no mandate to leave the single market. The point is that the Tories and Labour campaigned on the same position on this so for those voters who are opposed it just wasn't a party political issue. The "revenge of the remainders" doesn't change that.rkrkrk said:
I agree. The manifesto is clearly a good basis to work from.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
It's time I think for several from the back benches to return.
Cooper for Abbott is an obvious one.
I'd like to see Liz Kendall return too - maybe health? Could be a nice statement of unity to get some of his leadership rivals into cabinet.
Ed Miliband - perhaps to DECC?
Labour also need to be testing where the compromises are for coalition with the lib Dems and perhaps other parties also. I think they could easily assemble a majority for single market membership.
0 -
Both parties have unrealistic Brexit ambitions, but only one will carry the can for failing to deliver them, the one with May at the helm.alex. said:
Labour's official Brexit position is have cake and eat it. Like everything else is a wish list that doesn't take account of reality.RochdalePioneers said:Now that the dust has settled it seems clear to me that the coalition / confidence and supply arrangement the Tories are in isn't with the DUP - its with Labour.
The ONLY issue facing this parliament is Brexit. Everything else will have to wait. There is no consensus in the Tory ranks about what Brexit means, so many want hard Brexit and bog off Brussels, the rest want a softer deal. Labour have been very clear that we want a Brexit which protects jobs and rights and that means full access to the single market - which we will only get by being a member of the EEA.
So as ZombieMay is allowed to front up our "negotiations" in Brussels - we say "giz it", they laugh - its how she gets it through Parliament that's front of her political genius mind. And as she knows the DUP can't allow hard brexit and neither can half her MPs including her Brexit Secretary she's too dead to move, its Labour's support she needs.
Never mind the price that Arlene Foster will charge for confidence and supply from the DUP. Think about the price Labour will charge for Brexit support. May will have to implement a whole pile of Labour friendly stuff to keep us on board - because she knows that if she doesn't and the government falls there is enough of a consensus in the house for a minority Labour government to get things like Brexit through.0 -
Agree with all that.The_Apocalypse said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed - the left has won. Corbyn must now show real leadership, reach out to other parts of the party and build a shadow front bench that makes use of all the talent Labour has. He needs to show voters that Labour is a serious government in waiting.The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.
We need Cooper, Chuka, Ed M all back in the cabinet. Those who have done well, who should be kept are Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, and Barry Gardiner. Also would like to see Clive Lewis back in the Shadow Cabinet. Maybe even roles for Jess Philipps, Stella Creasy, and Lisa Nandy too.....?
But I hesitate over Chuka... An apology from him over calling Labour members petulant children would be nice! I should probably let it go though... He's a good media performer and could maybe be a deputy/backup support to Starmer on Brexit.0 -
Lots of those people were in the cabinet before and a moderate take over did not happen then.alex. said:
I think it is naive to think that Corbyn and his supporters are going to welcome all these people back. It would just be setting Labour up for a moderate takeover as they left have to be squeezed out to make way.The_Apocalypse said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed - the left has won. Corbyn must now show real leadership, reach out to other parts of the party and build a shadow front bench that makes use of all the talent Labour has. He needs to show voters that Labour is a serious government in waiting.The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.
We need Cooper, Chuka, Ed M all back in the cabinet. Those who have done well, who should be kept are Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, and Barry Gardiner. Also would like to see Clive Lewis back in the Shadow Cabinet. Maybe even roles for Jess Philipps, Stella Creasy, and Lisa Nandy too.....?
Don't think many Corbynistas on Twitter will be happy but Corbyn will be glad to have a situation where the PLP backs him.
Corbyn's election campaign also proves his team is actually capable of organising themselves competently.
All in all, we'll see what happens. But I see Labour as being in much stronger position now after this GE than they were before and I think we'll see some consensus building.
0 -
It does make me wonder though how it will affect Northern Irish politics.Alanbrooke said:
most of the nonsense posted by the press is westminster bubble stuffThe_Apocalypse said:Well this Con/DUP arrangement should be interesting:
https://twitter.com/me_stafford/status/873209534885617664
Don't think the Cons will go near LGBT rights and abortion as with the number of seats they have, they don't have wriggle room for anything controversial.
the DUP are primarily about money, pork barrellers
they only inflict the social misery on their own patch
as ever I find the sudden interest interest in NI - which most london types have avoided for years - tedious hypocrisy
Surely voters for SF will be thinking - we could have had a lot of say here?
Also could it mean that mainland parties decide it's worth competing for seats properly?0 -
Yep. How can such a weakened PM negotiate in our interests?chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
0 -
Which article?alex. said:
Read the BBC article. Huge numbers of Labour MPs have been re-elected promising to prioritise ending of freedom of movement over single market. It is one of the big failures of analysis of this result that this election showed there was no mandate to leave the single market. The point is that the Tories and Labour campaigned on the same position on this so for those voters who are opposed it just wasn't a party political issue. The "revenge of the remainders" doesn't change that.rkrkrk said:
I agree. The manifesto is clearly a good basis to work from.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
It's time I think for several from the back benches to return.
Cooper for Abbott is an obvious one.
I'd like to see Liz Kendall return too - maybe health? Could be a nice statement of unity to get some of his leadership rivals into cabinet.
Ed Miliband - perhaps to DECC?
Labour also need to be testing where the compromises are for coalition with the lib Dems and perhaps other parties also. I think they could easily assemble a majority for single market membership.0 -
you appear to ignore its the same problem if it were a Corbyn govt. How would you keep neutrality of the GFA when Corbyn is irredeemably aligned with SF ?foxinsoxuk said:
I don't have any particular grievance against the DUP. I have Presbyterian roots, some from Ireland. The DUP are not going to be imposing their social views on Great Britain, neither the DUP or Conservatives would want that.Alanbrooke said:
what are you complaining about doc ?foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
5 years of DUP governance is just what this country needs
It will be the Irish border question that now looks like the most problematic of the 3 initial issues. The status of EU nationals and the Danegeld are minor bites in comparison.
The implications of the government no longer being an honest broker in Stormont are serious. Who'd have thought that the collapse of a green subsidy scheme might matter so much.
as for the DUP they want an openish border ( soft brexit ), lots of money spent on NHS and social care. I think Ive found who you should be voting for next time :-)0 -
That will not be repeated, John Major had a majority of 19 - that was part of the problem.AlastairMeeks said:I think it's wonderful that a leader who naturally prefers acting unilaterally and in narrow self-interest is going to have to consult endlessly with different and conflicting interests to reach brokered ways forward. We might even by accident get some good decisions as a result.
Britain doesn't have the time for a Conservative party leadership election, with the Brexit clock ticking, so Theresa May is stuck in the job. She may endure there a long time. John Major was labelled in office but not in power in 1993. He only left office at the electorate's hands in 1997.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
F1: P3 at 3pm, qualifying at 6pm.0 -
Liz Kendall in charge of Education please, it is her strong suit, and not one where she is not out of alignment with the Corbynists. Putting the right Labour moderates in the right posts would be a major step forward.rkrkrk said:
Agree with all that.The_Apocalypse said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed - the left has won. Corbyn must now show real leadership, reach out to other parts of the party and build a shadow front bench that makes use of all the talent Labour has. He needs to show voters that Labour is a serious government in waiting.The_Apocalypse said:
Chuka has said that he is open to coming back to the Shadow Cabinet.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.
We need Cooper, Chuka, Ed M all back in the cabinet. Those who have done well, who should be kept are Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, and Barry Gardiner. Also would like to see Clive Lewis back in the Shadow Cabinet. Maybe even roles for Jess Philipps, Stella Creasy, and Lisa Nandy too.....?
But I hesitate over Chuka... An apology from him over calling Labour members petulant children would be nice! I should probably let it go though... He's a good media performer and could maybe be a deputy/backup support to Starmer on Brexit.
The Tories need to have a contest for a Deputy PM, with the recognition that it is really succession planning. A contested leadership contest is not viable at present.0 -
Could have been worse, of course. Arlene Foster in charge of Energy!0
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ROFLOldKingCole said:Could have been worse, of course. Arlene Foster in charge of Energy!
0 -
I don't think it was right for him to call Labour members petulant children, so I agree that apologising would help in soothing tensions.rkrkrk said:Agree with all that.
But I hesitate over Chuka... An apology from him over calling Labour members petulant children would be nice! I should probably let it go though... He's a good media performer and could maybe be a deputy/backup support to Starmer on Brexit.
Keir Starmer is another Shadow Cabinet member I like. I think a Starmer/Chuka Shadow Brexit team would be great.
As you can see, after all that moaning from me during the GE I'm likely to be coming back into the Labour fold, despite my own misgivings about Corbyn/McDonnell!0 -
That's why there needs to be a leadership contest.JosiasJessop said:
Yep. How can such a weakened PM negotiate in our interests?chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
0 -
Let this election be the test of that hypothesis. If the widely expected Tory landslide had actually occurred on Thursday, we know very well what they would be saying now. That the people had spoken. That Britain had backed a hard Brexit, a no-deal-is-better-than-a-bad-deal Brexit, a Blighty-alone Brexit, a come-what-may, do-your-worst-Jean-Claude, up-yours-Delors Brexit. Within minutes of an exit poll prediction of a big majority, Tory hardliners and Brexiteers would have been queueing to take ownership of that victory.
So let them now take ownership of the defeat. Let a wailing and gnashing of teeth be heard from their parliamentary ranks and their allies in the commentariat. Let the remnants of Ukip’s bedraggled army sit down and weep by the banks of the Rother and Don.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-s-make-believe-to-think-may-can-survive-vlpkgldg30 -
Through careful consultation with the key groups in advance, understanding their various red lines and getting their prior agreement as to where she can make concessions.JosiasJessop said:
Yep. How can such a weakened PM negotiate in our interests?chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
0 -
Perversely, May's successor will be able to do what she was doing in the last parliament, pretend he had 100 seat majority and wait to be voted down. It was only when May departed from the bluff and tried the reality that her virtual ( but totally workable ) majority vanished into dust.alex. said:
Labour's official Brexit position is have cake and eat it. Like everything else is a wish list that doesn't take account of reality.RochdalePioneers said:Now that the dust has settled it seems clear to me that the coalition / confidence and supply arrangement the Tories are in isn't with the DUP - its with Labour.
The ONLY issue facing this parliament is Brexit. Everything else will have to wait. There is no consensus in the Tory ranks about what Brexit means, so many want hard Brexit and bog off Brussels, the rest want a softer deal. Labour have been very clear that we want a Brexit which protects jobs and rights and that means full access to the single market - which we will only get by being a member of the EEA.
So as ZombieMay is allowed to front up our "negotiations" in Brussels - we say "giz it", they laugh - its how she gets it through Parliament that's front of her political genius mind. And as she knows the DUP can't allow hard brexit and neither can half her MPs including her Brexit Secretary she's too dead to move, its Labour's support she needs.
Never mind the price that Arlene Foster will charge for confidence and supply from the DUP. Think about the price Labour will charge for Brexit support. May will have to implement a whole pile of Labour friendly stuff to keep us on board - because she knows that if she doesn't and the government falls there is enough of a consensus in the house for a minority Labour government to get things like Brexit through.
If May had lost a vote in the House of Lords on Brexit in the old parliament and THEN gone to the country it would all have panned out OK.
Now, her successor has to be good at bluffing and faking sincerity.0 -
edmundintokyo said:
It doesn't work.
Brexit is going to involves a bunch of very serious trade-offs, which have been barely even acknowledged in the manifesto. Nobody knows WTF the British want - it's not even clear that the British know what they want.
The negotiations are going to involve both sides selling unpalatable things to their domestic audiences. But the other side isn't going to do that if they're dealing with a lame duck who could pull out at any time, and be replaced by somebody who won't accept the deal that they just took fire clearing the way for.
Meanwhile if the leader is a dead woman walking, she's going to be vulnerable at any point to 15% of her party not liking the sound of the things she's negotiating and deciding it's the right time for a challenge.
They need to stop faffing around and choose somebody else as leader. Just pick one, they're all pretty good.
The fact that we are now in a complete shambles quite frankly teaches the Tories a lesson. But for a salvage operation 'any old leader' wont do as has been proved by Cameron who got us into this mess in the first place.
As a Tory from three months old when he was put down for Eton he should have known that letting the party's xenophobes off their leash was going to cause mayhem. He was picked at random. A pretty face with a plummy accent and look where we are.-1 -
May isn't a lame duck, she's roasted duck with orange dressing.Scott_P said:@theobertram: A clip worth finding:
Theresa May, Hansard, 20 July 2006: "The Prime Minister is a lame duck and the Government are in paralysis."0 -
rkrkrk said:
Which article?alex. said:
Read the BBC article. Huge numbers of Labour MPs have been re-elected promising to prioritise ending of freedom of movement over single market. It is one of the big failures of analysis of this result that this election showed there was no mandate to leave the single market. The point is that the Tories and Labour campaigned on the same position on this so for those voters who are opposed it just wasn't a party political issue. The "revenge of the remainders" doesn't change that.rkrkrk said:
I agree. The manifesto is clearly a good basis to work from.foxinsoxuk said:
She is doomed, and could lose a vote of confidence at anytime. The next election is not so far away, and not likely to be at a time of the Tories choice. Indeed it is likely to be in the midst of some Parliamentary crisis or other.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
It's time I think for several from the back benches to return.
Cooper for Abbott is an obvious one.
I'd like to see Liz Kendall return too - maybe health? Could be a nice statement of unity to get some of his leadership rivals into cabinet.
Ed Miliband - perhaps to DECC?
Labour also need to be testing where the compromises are for coalition with the lib Dems and perhaps other parties also. I think they could easily assemble a majority for single market membership.
Sorry not bbc. I meant this one
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/jeremy-corbyn-plans-alternative-queens-speech-challenging-may0 -
Actually I sort of think she should stay.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Another Tory leadership contest + general election would just be a massive waste of time and might still give a hung parliament.
She ought to try to make progress, compromise with Labour where needed and accept that at the end of the process there is likely to be little political reward for her personally.0 -
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Thanks. Yes you're right that this issue hasn't been resolved.alex. said:
Sorry not bbc. I meant this one
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/jeremy-corbyn-plans-alternative-queens-speech-challenging-may
Not sure what to do about it though!0 -
if NI weresplit along normal political lines it would lean leftish\LDrkrkrk said:
It does make me wonder though how it will affect Northern Irish politics.Alanbrooke said:
most of the nonsense posted by the press is westminster bubble stuffThe_Apocalypse said:Well this Con/DUP arrangement should be interesting:
https://twitter.com/me_stafford/status/873209534885617664
Don't think the Cons will go near LGBT rights and abortion as with the number of seats they have, they don't have wriggle room for anything controversial.
the DUP are primarily about money, pork barrellers
they only inflict the social misery on their own patch
as ever I find the sudden interest interest in NI - which most london types have avoided for years - tedious hypocrisy
Surely voters for SF will be thinking - we could have had a lot of say here?
Also could it mean that mainland parties decide it's worth competing for seats properly?
I;d go for
8 Labour ( Belfast N,W,E, Foyle, Upper Bann, East Antrim, Lagan Valley, Newry and Armagh )
3 LD ( Belfast S, E londonderry, S Down )
7 Con ( N Down, Strangford, S Antrim, N Antrim, FST, Mid Ulster, W Tyrone )0 -
Lame duck a l'orangemen.Scott_P said:0 -
This seems too much like hoping that an incompetent prime minister who loses her majority will somehow turn into a competent one.AlastairMeeks said:I think it's wonderful that a leader who naturally prefers acting unilaterally and in narrow self-interest is going to have to consult endlessly with different and conflicting interests to reach brokered ways forward. We might even by accident get some good decisions as a result.
Britain doesn't have the time for a Conservative party leadership election, with the Brexit clock ticking, so Theresa May is stuck in the job. She may endure there a long time. John Major was labelled in office but not in power in 1993. He only left office at the electorate's hands in 1997.0 -
It's all just one almighty mess. So many people seem absolutely convinced about what shouldn't happen. Very few giving serious recognition to why all the alternatives shouldn't happen either. In all reality there can only be one party comfortable with where they find themselves this morning - the DUP.rkrkrk said:
Thanks. Yes you're right that this issue hasn't been resolved.alex. said:
Sorry not bbc. I meant this one
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/jeremy-corbyn-plans-alternative-queens-speech-challenging-may
Not sure what to do about it though!0 -
The tories are in a mess!
The force is with JC and Labour! Truly unbelievable! When the next GE happens, all eyes on Uxbridge please!0 -
Very kind of you sir. It was clear that we would hold the Tory target seats of Hartlepool, Darlington, Stockton North and Redcar. After they won the Tees Mayoralty they boasted about how they would next turn Teesside blue in Westminster. Bussing in southern candidates wasn't the smartest move!AlastairMeeks said:
PS thanks again for your precise predictions on your area. You're one of the few pb posters whose reputation has been enormously enhanced after the election result.
Where it was less clear was Middlesbrough South and Stockton South - where I expected a Tory win in both and hoped for Labour clinging on in MSEC. In my own seat of Stockton South our campaign target was to cut Wharton's majority in half to a few thousand. Which with the assumption of most of the 5k+ UKIP votes going Tory giving him a paper majority of c. 9k was a push.
But a brilliant local campaign, an MP who told our candidate at the start that he wasn't going to campaign much because he didn't need to, and a populace sick of being taken for mugs meant that although Wharton's vote increased, ours exploded. Had an increasing suspicion as the campaign went on that Wharton was doable, but didn't want to feel disappointed with "only" achieving our original target. Whereas next door in MSEC the feeling didn't change much through the campaign that the Tories would take it until the last week when we started to feel a surge.
I don't bet, but if my eyes on the ground was profitable for others, you are more than welcome. I profit from having a Labour MP and a rejuvenated party locally.
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One of the most brilliant political cartoons ever! That is a devastating encapsulation of her position.Scott_P said:0 -
Well you're very welcome to come back I am sure!The_Apocalypse said:
I don't think it was right for him to call Labour members petulant children, so I agree that apologising would help in soothing tensions.rkrkrk said:Agree with all that.
But I hesitate over Chuka... An apology from him over calling Labour members petulant children would be nice! I should probably let it go though... He's a good media performer and could maybe be a deputy/backup support to Starmer on Brexit.
Keir Starmer is another Shadow Cabinet member I like. I think a Starmer/Chuka Shadow Brexit team would be great.
As you can see, after all that moaning from me during the GE I'm likely to be coming back into the Labour fold, despite my own misgivings about Corbyn/McDonnell!
And I'm sorry about the abuse you received from some for leaving/thinking of leaving.
Hopefully the success of Corbyn, but also of people like Peter Kyle in Hove shows people that we don't need squabbles and abuse in the Labour party, we just have to compromise and work together to win.0 -
'Not another one!'The_Apocalypse said:
That's why there needs to be a leadership contest.JosiasJessop said:
Yep. How can such a weakened PM negotiate in our interests?chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
No more leadership contests. Just abandon Brexit and then the government can roll along quite comfortably with a non majority government as many countries do. Brexit is the problem not Theresa May's lack of a majority.
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That'd be good. However I see no indication that the PM has the required capabilities.AlastairMeeks said:
Through careful consultation with the key groups in advance, understanding their various red lines and getting their prior agreement as to where she can make concessions.JosiasJessop said:
Yep. How can such a weakened PM negotiate in our interests?chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
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She is going to be forced to do things differently. She might be better at those different things than at the things she likes doing.Chris said:
This seems too much like hoping that an incompetent prime minister who loses her majority will somehow turn into a competent one.AlastairMeeks said:I think it's wonderful that a leader who naturally prefers acting unilaterally and in narrow self-interest is going to have to consult endlessly with different and conflicting interests to reach brokered ways forward. We might even by accident get some good decisions as a result.
Britain doesn't have the time for a Conservative party leadership election, with the Brexit clock ticking, so Theresa May is stuck in the job. She may endure there a long time. John Major was labelled in office but not in power in 1993. He only left office at the electorate's hands in 1997.
I agree, it's a bit of a leap in the dark.0 -
I think she is not capable -- physically, emotionally -- of doing this.rkrkrk said:
Actually I sort of think she should stay.chloe said:
She should have announced she was going yesterday. The government can't just carry on as if nothing happened.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
Another Tory leadership contest + general election would just be a massive waste of time and might still give a hung parliament.
She ought to try to make progress, compromise with Labour where needed and accept that at the end of the process there is likely to be little political reward for her personally.
She always looked to me a sad mixture of vulnerability and awkwardness.0 -
The ratio of insightful analysis to Tory tub thumping on PB has improved enormously lately. Anyone know why?0
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Anyone seen malcolm ?0
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Time for a new Avatar!ThomasNashe said:One of the most brilliant political cartoons ever! That is a devastating encapsulation of her position.
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If Corbyn stays and May goes then the next election will be utterly unpredictable with no "base assumptions" to work with. The Tories could lose millions of votes they've just gained/borrowed (43%!) and could gain millions of votes they've just lost from people sure that Corbyn couldn't win.0
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Not much sign of a PLP rapprochement so far
@PolhomeEditor: Chris Leslie on #r4today making the salient point that Labour still ended up with nearly 60 seats less than the Conservatives. #GE2017
@montie: Respect to @ChrisLeslieMP on #r4today - yes Corbyn did well but gravity WILL bring him & Labour down - policies are unworkable & extreme
although
@anthonypainter: I'm afraid Chris Leslie is striking all the wrong notes here. Labour moderates need magnanimity not churlishness now. #r4today0 -
He was around last night. Mentioned some bets he might need to settle.Alanbrooke said:Anyone seen malcolm ?
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@DPJHodges: Every second May delays sees government's authority draining away. She should resign on Monday, then delay Brexit talks till new PM arrives.
Hard to disagree with that0 -
Mr Meeks,
"I think there's a lot of truth in that. The effect of a hung Parliament is to convert Brexit from a private Conservative affair into a cross-party discussion"
I totally fail to see the relevance of this. perhaps it's me.
Even if the discussion includes a bigger wish-list, it doesn't mean it will be achieved. Assuming all parties want the "best" deal for the UK, and I further assume they mean the best economic deal, there is going to be a discussion with the EU who will want to give us a worse economic deal.
So how does a variety of opinions on our side help?
Here's an example ...Party X takes the referendum result as its guide. FOM dead in the water (UK parliamentary control of borders), UK parliamentary control over laws, negotiate best economic trade links (the original purpose of common market). That is accepting the referendum result.
Party Y also want to accept referendum result but want to prioritise workers' rights as outlined by EU. Why would EU argue about this item as it's something they agree with? But negotiations continue as above.
Party Z want to look as if they accept referendum result but don't - they want us to remain. Argue for FOM, to retain workers' rights, and to accept EU laws. They also would be happy to pay large fee for economic free market.
EU will consider and decide party Z's arguments are best, as long as the economic fee is a little larger.
Parliament considers and (based on current membership) votes enthusiastically for plan. Deal concluded, electorate hopefully fooled.
It may be a childishly cunning plan and may work (sort of) but we'll know we've been conned. And that will permanently damage faith in politics. A price worth paying for some.
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Yo dogs, let take a break from the isn't the DUP lovely and awesome with absolutely no links o religious extremists or gun runners that will repeatedly be brought up by the media love fest to take a look at Ashcroft's post election poll
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/result-happen-post-vote-survey/0 -
rkrkrk said:
Well you're very welcome to come back I am sure!The_Apocalypse said:
I don't think it was right for him to call Labour members petulant children, so I agree that apologising would help in soothing tensions.rkrkrk said:Agree with all that.
But I hesitate over Chuka... An apology from him over calling Labour members petulant children would be nice! I should probably let it go though... He's a good media performer and could maybe be a deputy/backup support to Starmer on Brexit.
Keir Starmer is another Shadow Cabinet member I like. I think a Starmer/Chuka Shadow Brexit team would be great.
As you can see, after all that moaning from me during the GE I'm likely to be coming back into the Labour fold, despite my own misgivings about Corbyn/McDonnell!
And I'm sorry about the abuse you received from some for leaving/thinking of leaving.
Hopefully the success of Corbyn, but also of people like Peter Kyle in Hove shows people that we don't need squabbles and abuse in the Labour party, we just have to compromise and work together to win.
Re the abuse, it's okay. I'm long over that particular moment on PB.
Hoping to see a strong opposition from Labour, strong leadership and the party united. Hopefully!0 -
1) why would a new Tory leader have any more authority. The Conservatives don't have the luxury of a leader only needing to draw authority from the Party for support. They are a minority Goverment.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Every second May delays sees government's authority draining away. She should resign on Monday, then delay Brexit talks till new PM arrives.
Hard to disagree with that
2) Delaying the starting of talks would be fine if that had delaying the end as a corollary. But it doesn't. The clock is already ticking on what is a horribly tight deadline as it is. There may even be problems caused with the Lords and the Parliament Act.
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https://twitter.com/rwbblog/status/873435382393835520
This was the point Allegra was making on the ITV coverage. Does this election result have a greater mandate than the referendum, and if so, for what exactly?
The Brexiteers claim 80% of people voted for parties that want out of the single market, but can anyone honestly claim that's what Corbyn wants, or would deliver?0 -
Party Z doesn't unilaterally decide Britain's negotiating position. Nor does Party X or Party Y.CD13 said:Mr Meeks,
"I think there's a lot of truth in that. The effect of a hung Parliament is to convert Brexit from a private Conservative affair into a cross-party discussion"
I totally fail to see the relevance of this. perhaps it's me.
Even if the discussion includes a bigger wish-list, it doesn't mean it will be achieved. Assuming all parties want the "best" deal for the UK, and I further assume they mean the best economic deal, there is going to be a discussion with the EU who will want to give us a worse economic deal.
So how does a variety of opinions on our side help?
Here's an example ...Party X takes the referendum result as its guide. FOM dead in the water (UK parliamentary control of borders), UK parliamentary control over laws, negotiate best economic trade links (the original purpose of common market). That is accepting the referendum result.
Party Y also want to accept referendum result but want to prioritise workers' rights as outlined by EU. Why would EU argue about this item as it's something they agree with? But negotiations continue as above.
Party Z want to look as if they accept referendum result but don't - they want us to remain. Argue for FOM, to retain workers' rights, and to accept EU laws. They also would be happy to pay large fee for economic free market.
EU will consider and decide party Z's arguments are best, as long as the economic fee is a little larger.
Parliament considers and (based on current membership) votes enthusiastically for plan. Deal concluded, electorate hopefully fooled.
It may be a childishly cunning plan and may work (sort of) but we'll know we've been conned. And that will permanently damage faith in politics. A price worth paying for some.
You overlook that this was an election called precisely to give Theresa May a crushing mandate for her (undisclosed) vision of Brexit. The electorate refused to give it. Other views are now rightly going to carry weight.
The Bufton Tuftons who saw a particular interpretation of the referendum vote as holy writ have been outvoted.0 -
May and the current government are bed blockers. They need to get out of the way to enable someone competent to lead Brexit. Because it will take time for anyone to get up to speed, they should leave now.
We need someone good in charge.0 -
That sounds quite right. According to this morning's Telegraph, Scotland was a success only because they revolted against any London involvement:View_From_Cumbria said:
Corbyn might frighten them but obviously when they believe there is no risk from him 40% are willing to vote for the generic concept no matter how irrational it seems to the other 60%.SquareRoot said:Franlky, May has to go and soon.. three months max.. The Tories have fecked themselves good and proper. I cannot see how they can win the next election. The prospect of Corbyn frightens the life out of a lot of people inc me..
The national election campaign degenerated into a disaster. The local campaigns were often the best ever. But they relied on the national stuff being half decent and as the national mood changed they were swamped.
David Herdson is quite right for the very short term but we will need someone else. I have been a sacrificial lamb plenty of times in elections and I would like to fight next year's locals with a credible national leader so I would have some prospect of holding my seat.
We got James Airey within 777 votes of taking Tim Farron out - I'm sorry, responsibility for those 777 Farron votes rests more with the Conservative national campaign than it does with us.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/ruth-davidson-planning-scottish-tory-breakaway-challenges-theresa/
I don't see how Mayncan carry on for more than a few months, though. She is irretrievanly damaged,and keeping an object of national ridicule in charge simply won't work for very long.0 -
It is theoretically impossible for anyone to have less authority than Tezza, therefore by default any new leader would have more authority.alex. said:1) why would a new Tory leader have any more authority. The Conservatives don't have the luxury of a leader only needing to draw authority from the Party for support. They are a minority Goverment.
I agree it wouldn't be much more, but anything less than zero is a step forward
At the very least they would have less baggage (unless it's Boris)0 -
So according to Aschcrofts the SNP lost a big, big chunk of its Leaver vote.
Maybe it was about Brexit after all in Scotland.0 -
I think May, or whoever takes over, should ask for as close to off-the-shelf EEA as possible. There's no mandate for anything less but it's far from clear that there's any mandate for anything more.0
