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https://twitter.com/andysearson/status/870184524084281344 < Cambridge.
Corbyn seems pretty popular to me there.0 -
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you're country needs you ;-)rcs1000 said:
You know, I would have voted for him through gritted teeth last year. But after losing he should have f*cked off with his tail between his legs. Giving a seat to the LibDems in a by-election (where you're not even a Conservative), and then attempting a come back as a Conservative is, in my mind, a complete no-no.David_Evershed said:rcs1000 said:
Given how big the Conservative majority was in 2015, we really should win. That being said, I couldn't vote for Zac, even if he is a Conservative. Were I living in Richmond Park, despite being a Leaver, I'd have something more pressing to do next Thursday. You know, like washing my hair.Pulpstar said:
My mole reckons Olney useless, Zac to win.ThomasNashe said:
Touch and go, I'd say.kle4 said:
Zac Goldsmith is going to be an MP again in a week too.ThomasNashe said:
Undoubtedly. She would have pissed away more political capital in a few weeks than even Zac Goldsmith managed. Fwiw. I think she'll get a bigger majority than that. Certainly, 100+ and the mistakes of the campaign would be forgotten within days.SeanT said:
I think TMay will struggle, badly, if that's all she achieves. She will survive, but there will be plots.Ave_it said:Here it is!
Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever
But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%
Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18
Con maj 40
Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP
But you still thought Zac would win againts Olney.0 -
The students will still be up. Remember Cambridge May Week is in June.rcs1000 said:
Cambridge is also Remainia central. And the (Corbynite) students will have gone home.kle4 said:
People still believed in the LDs a month ago.rcs1000 said:
I don't think the LDs will win, but it's worth noting that the LDs had a fabulous local election there last month. Their total number of votes was up about 40% on 2015, while the Labour vote was down.kle4 said:
Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?Fenman said:
I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.DavidL said:
North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.htmlrcs1000 said:
I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.kle4 said:
Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!El_Capitano said:The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to es tits up.
I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.
What are the Smithson (jr) 10?
Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk
Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath
Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)
Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?
As I said, I expect the Labour Party to hold Cambridge, but it will be close.0 -
They won't... Trinity May ball is on the 19th for example. My daughter has exams finishing on the 9th. The politics people have one on that morning!rcs1000 said:
Cambridge is also Remainia central. And the (Corbynite) students will have gone home.kle4 said:
People still believed in the LDs a month ago.rcs1000 said:
I don't think the LDs will win, but it's worth noting that the LDs had a fabulous local election there last month. Their total number of votes was up about 40% on 2015, while the Labour vote was down.kle4 said:
Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?Fenman said:
I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.DavidL said:
North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.htmlrcs1000 said:
I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.kle4 said:
Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!El_Capitano said:The LDs may be mortally wounded in ppen.
I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.
I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.
What are the Smithson (jr) 10?
Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk
Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath
Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)
Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?
As I said, I expect the Labour Party to hold Cambridge, but it will be close.0 -
That was Willie though. People like him despite his close relationships with sheep.rcs1000 said:
NE Fife was one of two constituencies the LDs "won" in the Scottish locals last month (the other was Edinburgh West), and they won the Holyrood seat by a large margin last year.daodao said:
NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.rcs1000 said:
Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.daodao said:
That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.rcs1000 said:
I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.kle4 said:
Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!El_Capitano said:The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.
I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.
I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.
What are the Smithson (jr) 10?
Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk
Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath
Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)
Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative0 -
Cambridge students will all be there on 8 June, term doesn't end for another week after that.-1
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This time next week, the exit poll will have been released.
And then we'll be filled to the brim with girlish glee.0 -
5-4-3-2-1 BOOM!0
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Sorry - just practising for next week0
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You and Pulpstar at opposite ends on turnout.rcs1000 said:
Yes, I think something in the 6 to 12 range is very likely indeed. My gut is that next Thursday is going to have a lower than expected turnout (say 2001 levels), and that will result in a slightly higher LD share than people expect. (Say final polls averaging 9%, actual 10%.)kle4 said:
Yes, still quite a bit of churn in the possibilities.rcs1000 said:
I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.kle4 said:
Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!El_Capitano said:The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.
I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.
I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.
What are the Smithson (jr) 10?
Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk
Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath
Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)
Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
Last time they didn't do a good job of holding what they had, and this time they may get even fewer votes - unless they are making their vote much more efficient, dropping even further in some areas (like mine) and doing well in their targets they will have losses.
Best case scenario they hold almost all their current seats, gain a couple of english seats (damn Corbyn surge ruined any chance in Cambridge), and several Scottish seats, and even on 8-10% 13-14 is possible, but I think you're right, though I'm betting a few less.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Westmoreland
Edinburgh West
Sheffield Hallam
Another Scottish seat
One of Southport or Leeds NW
Kingston0 -
They just don't get it do they. If it can't be renegotiated then the US leaves. Without the US others will follow and the whole thing falls apart.Scott_P said:@tom_nuttall: Someone missing, can't quite put my finger on it... https://twitter.com/AP/status/870381220449923073
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Classy comment from the landownerfoxinsoxuk said:
Has she has had a nervous breakdown? I am beginning to start to feel sorry for her. To fear losing to Jeremy Corbyn. It is liked England being knocked out of the Cup by Iceland. Humiliating.calum said:0 -
And John Curtice will be looking impish.TheScreamingEagles said:This time next week, the exit poll will have been released.
And then we'll be filled to the brim with girlish glee.0 -
Trump.
Free association.
Is there such a thing as a judas lemming?0 -
Competition only works if there can be losers as well as winners - there are periods when a service provider is exploitative/substandard before market forces work to change the provider's behaviour or knock it out of business (if they do at all). Fine in principle in a properly competitive marketplace, say mobile phone providers, but not fine in a monopoly or near-monopoly situation. If you're unlucky enough to need to commute to work on Southern Rail, there's no form of rational consumer behaviour that can be exercised to obtain a better service - for example.Cyclefree said:
How does nationalisation help manage the risk of misfortune?Polruan said:
I guess because of that normal democratic inconvenience: you have to win power to be able to do good. And as any attempt to redress problems of poverty will be seized upon across the popular press as stealing money from struggling nice people, people like our readers, for the benefit of the undeserving poor, it's electoral suicide.Cyclefree said:
Thank you. I didn't know about that. Horrific.Theuniondivvie said:
'David Clapson’s awful death was the result of grotesque government policies'Cyclefree said:
Have veteran soldiers starved to death? Awful if true and if down to government inaction or malice.RochdalePioneers said:
[-]Jonathan said:So, if you're Labour what do you do? Some people are about to think for the first time 'maybe'. How do they handle that? In the past, Labour has not handled that moment well. How would you play it?
People voted Brexit because they want a better future. Only one party offering details about what that means to them.
But has it actually happened? And this is a genuine question BTW.
https://tinyurl.com/hqfbzlv
Why then are Labour not proposing to reverse the benefit cuts and instead wasting money on nationalization or on protecting the inheritances of the well off?
Also, policies around nationalisation, tuition fees and social care would be seen as part of the solution from a Labour perspective: they're about building a society in which more of the risk of misfortune is managed collectively, which is a bigger vision than simply shovelling some cash from the richest to the poorest as a sticking plaster for poverty.0 -
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Yes, a lot is being asked of Scottish unionists.DavidL said:
I think it was Electoral Calculus who had it as a Tory gain. I was somewhat bemused. The risk, as with everywhere in Scotland is that it ends up with the Unionist vote splitting 10,20,30 with the SNP on 40.Saltire said:
There is no chance that the Tories win in NE Fife. I will happily wager with you that the LDs are ahead of them on the 8th.daodao said:
NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.rcs1000 said:
Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.daodao said:
That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.rcs1000 said:
Ikle4 said:
!El_Capitano said:
Indeed I think that the chances of this being a LD gain is at least 50%. (Might be slightly biased since I have been doing a fair bit of campaigning in the seat but it feels like it very close)
1) That you're willing to vote tactically
2) That you do so in significant numbers
3) That you can agree on who is the primary SNP challenger in every seat
4) That you do all this unofficially as the parties (at least from a distance) seem to mostly be disavowing any tactical approach openly.0 -
Didn't someone argue the other day (fairly convincingly, I thought) that the young who don't turn out are the non-student young?David_Evershed said:
Students already gone on holiday though? So fewer youth votes for labour?kle4 said:
Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?Fenman said:
I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.DavidL said:
North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.htmlrcs1000 said:
I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.kle4 said:
Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!El_Capitano said:The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.
I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.
I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.
What are the Smithson (jr) 10?
Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk
Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath
Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)
Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?0 -
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Ah hem. The LOCALS. Not the Holyrood elections.DavidL said:
That was Willie though. People like him despite his close relationships with sheep.rcs1000 said:
NE Fife was one of two constituencies the LDs "won" in the Scottish locals last month (the other was Edinburgh West), and they won the Holyrood seat by a large margin last year.daodao said:
NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.rcs1000 said:
Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.daodao said:
That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.rcs1000 said:
I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.kle4 said:Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!
I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.
What are the Smithson (jr) 10?
Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk
Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath
Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)
Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
here
See that orangey-bit on the Eastern coast of Scotland. That's Fife NE in the 2017 Scottish locals, that is.0 -
Can't bloody wait (if anything to end the torture of this campaign)TheScreamingEagles said:This time next week, the exit poll will have been released.
And then we'll be filled to the brim with girlish glee.0 -
That they are even mentioning nationalisation is a victory of sorts.Stark_Dawning said:Neat bit of Labour campaigning outside Basingstoke railway station earlier: they were handing out leaflets - red on one side, blue on the other - made to look like big train tickets. On the red side was the Labour pledge to nationalize the railways; on the blue side the fare hikes under the Tories. I was expecting a Footite shambles from Labour throughout, but this was punchy and professional.
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You don't often see a housing shortage offered as a reason for falling prices!Scott_P said:0 -
Did this really happen today?
Journalist: "Why do you think voters are warming to Corbyn?"
Theresa May: "I just get out there and campaign with my message"0 -
Wow what brings politics into disrepute!!!
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/8700120235470725120 -
Positive for the LDs!Scott_P said:
I think it's the first of these predictions I've seen that says Lamb will win his seat.
Labour on just over 200 even on 35% though - if that is right, then I must have been mad to think they could get 190 on low 30s.0 -
Is the Telegraph sure it is not its other front page story -- rising waiting lists -- boosting Labour's vote?Scott_P said:0 -
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You are correct, and I am wrong.JonWC said:
They won't... Trinity May ball is on the 19th for example. My daughter has exams finishing on the 9th. The politics people have one on that morning!rcs1000 said:
Cambridge is also Remainia central. And the (Corbynite) students will have gone home.kle4 said:
People still believed in the LDs a month ago.rcs1000 said:
I don't think the LDs will win, but it's worth noting that the LDs had a fabulous local election there last month. Their total number of votes was up about 40% on 2015, while the Labour vote was down.kle4 said:
Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?Fenman said:
I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.DavidL said:
North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.htmlrcs1000 said:
I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.kle4 said:Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!
I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.
What are the Smithson (jr) 10?
Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk
Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath
Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)
Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?
As I said, I expect the Labour Party to hold Cambridge, but it will be close.0 -
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk SNP Con likelyhood 97.4%
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TheScreamingEagles said:
3 weeks to see your GPTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
First comment - though some time ago I write an article or two which went up on here. Under another moniker, of course. Hello again, Mike!0
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You were never going to vote Labour anyway. Sanctimonious bullshit.ydoethur said:
They also say they will keep free school meals and massively increase school budgets. The policy they have adopted would massively increase pressure on places and vastly increase costs instead, causing the collapse of the system within months. Without going through it all again, VAT on private school fees would cause the private education system to implode - so the majority of the children there now will come into the state sector and the money Corbyn is greedily anticipating taking in will not materialise.hoveite said:
Labour are explicitly promising to get rid of sanctions no matter any article in the Guardian says.
The reason I mention this again is because Labour's manifesto is actually a tissue of lies, and that is why I link to the analysis not the manifesto itself. Labour say they will get rid of sanctions, but look at the detail and they are keeping the cuts. What is worrying - really worrying - is that most Labour supporters are ignorant of or wilfully blind to this reality, as we see in your posts and indeed on the Guardian and BBC websites where Corbyn's acolytes claim their manifesto is realistic and fully costed.
Let me put it another way. Corbyn portrays himself as an honest, decent and principled man. So far in this campaign he has lied about his spending plans, lied about his links with the IRA and lied about his past principles. Previously, he has lied about his links with Holocaust Denial, lied about not having a seat on a train and lied about the information he was given on the Islington paedophile scandal. The last two were doubly crass because they were unnecessary. So he has also lied about being honest and principled.
Drop the scales and really look at what he's saying. The uncomfortable truth, you will find, is that this is not a bold and redistributive manifesto that will remake Britain's economy in a fair form, but a series of ill-written bribes based on naked greed and hatred to appeal to certain client groups and bugger the rest - including welfare claimants (remember as an aside that Corbyn is from a wealthy background, has never been unemployed and never had to apply for a job. He really has no clue what life is like on welfare).
Which is why I will not be voting for him. He is singularly fortunate in the campaign his two principal opponents are running.0 -
Oh thank goodness, I thought that was to save the NHS.bigjohnowls said:
Headline seems paranoid though.0 -
It can't come soon enough. Just think - the yanks have 12 months of this crap every 4 years.TheScreamingEagles said:This time next week, the exit poll will have been released.
And then we'll be filled to the brim with girlish glee.0 -
Important to remember May Week is in June.AndrewSpencer said:Cambridge students will all be there on 8 June, term doesn't end for another week after that.
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Just a thought on election night for those who will be betting as the first results come in, the SNP vote is very evenly spread. With the exception of a couple of seats they were between 40 and 60% in every seat. In the Holyrood election they got between 36 and 48% in every regional list vote.
I think that their vote is likely to go up or, much more likely, down by roughly the same amount across the country. If they look like they are doing about 8-10% worse in the first 2 or 3 seats to declare then it will probably indicate that they will vulnerable in any seat where they started with less than 50% of the vote. Sometimes though it will depend if there is a clear challenger to them for the other voters to rally round.0 -
Right. Now we have a model showing Labour going backwards in Wales.kle4 said:
Positive for the LDs!Scott_P said:
I think it's the first of these predictions I've seen that says Lamb will win his seat.
Labour on just over 200 even on 35% though - if that is right, then I must have been mad to think they could get 190 on low 30s.0 -
If you'd given me that result a few weeks ago, I'd've been dancing in the streets.Scott_P said:
Now I'd be disappointed and a bit surprised by it.0 -
So is LD candidate (and former MP) Julian Huppert. I suspect it depends on student turnout. If the students vote in large numbers, Labour will hold Cambridge. If not, the local vote for Huppert will win it back for the LDs.Pulpstar said:< Cambridge.
Corbyn seems pretty popular to me there.0 -
I bet they didn't say that.Scott_P said:0 -
Interesting that 'Nowcast' includes seats with any chance of changing hands,not matter how small, even ones with what they call a 0.1% chance of changing.
Also interesting how safe they reckon some LD seats are, which I think is bold
Ceredigion LDem LDem 5.0%
Carshalton & Wallington LDem LDem 11.2%
North Norfolk LDem LDem 18.2%
Leeds North West LDem LDem 20.0%
Southport though they think is a goner
Southport LDem Con 94.7%0 -
HoorarRobD said:For the nostalgic among us...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjJDyIAI4SI0 -
East Renfrewshire SNP Con 74.8%
Where Lab were 7000 ahead of Con last time? Some might switch in support and then tactical there if so (no Lab incumbent I guess).0 -
Tomorrow's newspaper headlines are giving a distinct whiff of panic.0
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If you haven't got nine hours, you can watch it all at double speed..Scrapheap_as_was said:
HoorarRobD said:For the nostalgic among us...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjJDyIAI4SI0 -
why the combination of bets?Pulpstar said:
£40 a point on spread and 5/6 over £100TheWhiteRabbit said:
over/under or spread?Pulpstar said:I've bought turnout at 63. Here's hoping it is one of my better bets...
I think either the fear of Corbyn will bring out the oldies or he might bring out the youngsters.
Highly polarised binary choice election = high turnout (Or at least higher than 63)0 -
No quote mark in the title, so probably not.Theuniondivvie said:
I bet they didn't say that.Scott_P said:htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/870385736008257537
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Here we go again. Toxic south of the border.Scott_P said:0 -
Con Maj 36.calum said:
Seems a bit low.0 -
We have models for every result you could dream of!Pulpstar said:
Right. Now we have a model showing Labour going backwards in Wales.kle4 said:
Positive for the LDs!Scott_P said:
I think it's the first of these predictions I've seen that says Lamb will win his seat.
Labour on just over 200 even on 35% though - if that is right, then I must have been mad to think they could get 190 on low 30s.0 -
Nope, I do all my booking online too, so I can often see a Doctor PDQ.SeanT said:
I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.bigjohnowls said:
I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!0 -
It was the eveness of the vote that gave them their landslide in 2015. I think they will be down 7-8% which will help but everything in Scotland depends on the willingness of Unionists to vote tactically. If I lived in Edinburgh West I would vote Lib Dem, Edinburgh SW Tory and Edinburgh North and Leith Labour (god help me). But not everyone feels like that. I was speaking to a Tory in Edinburgh West who can't bring himself to vote Lib Dem only yesterday (despite my urging).Saltire said:Just a thought on election night for those who will be betting as the first results come in, the SNP vote is very evenly spread. With the exception of a couple of seats they were between 40 and 60% in every seat. In the Holyrood election they got between 36 and 48% in every regional list vote.
I think that their vote is likely to go up or, much more likely, down by roughly the same amount across the country. If they look like they are doing about 8-10% worse in the first 2 or 3 seats to declare then it will probably indicate that they will vulnerable in any seat where they started with less than 50% of the vote. Sometimes though it will depend if there is a clear challenger to them for the other voters to rally round.0 -
Isn't that a majority of 72? Or can't I do maths.Freggles said:0 -
Con Maj 74 surely?Freggles said:0 -
May Day was May 1st and is gone.0
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(362-325) x 2 = 74Freggles said:0 -
Makes you proud to be British ...
https://twitter.com/themushypea/status/8703859963193917440 -
Haven't been to the docs in years but i think if you turn up at 830am you can get in that day. Phone up for an appt and it's about a fortnightSeanT said:
I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.bigjohnowls said:
I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!
A v nice Sri Lankan who I followed from one practice to another #virtuesignalling0 -
Con Maj 74Freggles said:0 -
Hand in hand! Last seasons 'right wing press'!SouthamObserver said:Makes you proud to be British ...
https://twitter.com/themushypea/status/8703859963193917440 -
I like to do things traditionally.TheWhiteRabbit said:0 -
Oh god, are we back to posting this in each thread now?SouthamObserver said:Makes you proud to be British ...
twitter.com/themushypea/status/8703859963193917440 -
The Tories would take that now I expect. So would I.0
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No.SeanT said:
I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.bigjohnowls said:
I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!
Its also possible to book online or ring and get an appointment for the same day.
We read the same GP waiting time story every year.0 -
of the 134 seats we expect are at risk of changing hands , 41 will more likely than not do so
Boy,that is low.0 -
Never mind - Labour have an open doors policy that will soon give us all more time to recover first.bigjohnowls said:0 -
Or pissedSeanT said:
Exactly the same for me. My other, recent experiences of the NHS are equally good - blood tests (I am hypothyroid) are done immediately and with almost no queueing.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, I do all my booking online too, so I can often see a Doctor PDQ.SeanT said:
I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.bigjohnowls said:
I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!
Maybe we are lucky.
A&E is still shit but it was always shit, thanks to idiots turning up with hayfever.0 -
The Labour vote last time was seriously boosted by having Jim Murphy stand. On a good night for the Tories this is a gain but I wouldn't put the probability that high. Used to be the safest Tory seat in Scotland (or at least the Eastwood bit was).FF43 said:
I'm not convinced either. I reckon SNP hold, although it's anyone's guess.kle4 said:East Renfrewshire SNP Con 74.8%
Where Lab were 7000 ahead of Con last time? Some might switch in support and then tactical there if so (no Lab incumbent I guess).0 -
Actually my immediate answer to that question is Krishnan Guru-Murthy. One of the most despicable journalists to sully our televisions.bigjohnowls said:Wow what brings politics into disrepute!!!
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/870012023547072512
Followed of course a close second by practically every politician which shows just how much I despise KG-M0 -
I'd also had Ed West switching with far greater confidence that Dunbartonshire East0
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Yup, online prescription/e prescriptions as well.SeanT said:
Exactly the same for me. My other, recent experiences of the NHS are equally good - blood tests (I am hypothyroid) are done immediately and with almost no queueing.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, I do all my booking online too, so I can often see a Doctor PDQ.SeanT said:
I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.bigjohnowls said:
I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!
Maybe we are lucky.
A&E is still shit but it was always shit, thanks to idiots turning up with hayfever.
I know a lot of Doctors, apart from wanting to fine appointment no shows, idiots turning up at A&E with stuff like that, really boils there piss.
Especially when they get shirty because they arrived first and other more serious cases get treated sooner than them.
'No Sir, your hayfever isn't as serious as that man's heart attack'0 -
Lets put it this way I'm sure that if the Tories thought they were in with a chance of winning they would asking you to go to campaigning in St Andrews rather than BlairgowrieDavidL said:
I think it was Electoral Calculus who had it as a Tory gain. I was somewhat bemused. The risk, as with everywhere in Scotland is that it ends up with the Unionist vote splitting 10,20,30 with the SNP on 40.Saltire said:
There is no chance that the Tories win in NE Fife. I will happily wager with you that the LDs are ahead of them on the 8th.daodao said:
NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.rcs1000 said:
Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.daodao said:
That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.rcs1000 said:
Ikle4 said:
!El_Capitano said:
Indeed I think that the chances of this being a LD gain is at least 50%. (Might be slightly biased since I have been doing a fair bit of campaigning in the seat but it feels like it very close)
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China?Scott_P said:@tom_nuttall: Someone missing, can't quite put my finger on it... https://twitter.com/AP/status/870381220449923073
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To raise a favourite PB meme, a large proportion of Scotland's Jewish community lives in East Renfrewshire; I wonder if there'll be a Corbyn factor? The SLab candidate is quite anti Corbyn but I guess he's keeping his trap shut on that subject at the moment.kle4 said:East Renfrewshire SNP Con 74.8%
Where Lab were 7000 ahead of Con last time? Some might switch in support and then tactical there if so (no Lab incumbent I guess).0 -
No. I can see my GP same day by booking an appointment on my phone through emis. Its fantastic. I live on Tyneside.SeanT said:
I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.bigjohnowls said:
I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!0 -
0
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Not necessarily - Labour wouldn't necessarily do that badly on a lower vote share *IF* the votes of the third parties, especially Ukip, held up better than expected, rather than the Tories completely running away with it.kle4 said:
Positive for the LDs!Scott_P said:
I think it's the first of these predictions I've seen that says Lamb will win his seat.
Labour on just over 200 even on 35% though - if that is right, then I must have been mad to think they could get 190 on low 30s.
Based on my (admittedly rudimentary) study of how the electoral system used to work when the vast bulk of the vote used to split only two ways, it's quite possible under such circumstances for the leading party of accumulate a healthy lead in terms of seats based on a quite modest lead in terms of share of the vote. Conversely, in a more complex multi-party environment the winning party may need to win really big to get a healthy majority.
To take an example, Harold Wilson and David Cameron won the 1966 and 2015 General Elections, respectively, with very similar leads over their main opponents in terms of national vote share (both a little over 6%.) The former won a Parliamentary majority of 96, the latter just 12.0 -
A year ago my GP had no online booking at all, and after trying to ring for an appointment any time in the next week several times unsuccessfully I asked 10 minutes after opening if I essentially had to call in the first five minutes in order to get an appointment, and they told me yes.another_richard said:
No.SeanT said:
I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.bigjohnowls said:
I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!
Its also possible to book online or ring and get an appointment for the same day.
We read the same GP waiting time story every year.
Coincidentally CQC rated them inadequate for customer service and administration among other reasons and placed it into special measures later that year and it has merged with 2 other practices and now has an online booking system and has significantly improved in other areas - its amazing how fast things can change.0 -
YOU BRING POLITICS INTO DISREPUTEAnneJGP said:
Never mind - Labour have an open doors policy that will soon give us all more time to recover first.bigjohnowls said:
No wonder Liar Liar is number10 -
Last time I needed an appointment - just before Easter - the first available GP was over 3 weeks away. That included the 2 bank holidays, of course.SeanT said:
I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.bigjohnowls said:
I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!0 -
I am not so sure it is any more! the SNP budget would hold back Cobyns plans.KentRising said:
Here we go again. Toxic south of the border.Scott_P said:0 -
Which is fake newsbigjohnowls said:
My wife became quite worryingly ill on a Saturday. This only became apparent when the gp surgery which is open on saturday had closed. She was able to go to the local out of hours service virtually immediately. Indeed so soon was the appointment that I was worried I would nor be able to drive her there in time. She was diagnosed and treated and recovered inside 3 - 4 days.
My 90 year old mother in law was talen to the surgery, I took her, when taken ill and seen even though the official session was over. She has had all kinds of treatments for illnesses including a cancer and no where near has had to wait 3 weeks.
You know what, just shut the wotsit up with your propaganda peddling.0 -
She looks more as though she's supporting/guiding him.isam said:
Hand in hand! Last seasons 'right wing press'!SouthamObserver said:Makes you proud to be British ...
https://twitter.com/themushypea/status/8703859963193917440