politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s YouGov and ORB polls have the Tory lead in the singl
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s YouGov and ORB polls have the Tory lead in the single digits
Tonight's @YouGov @thesundaytimes poll
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First!0
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FPT
Currently, the Tories remarkably consistent, but Labour's 34-38 varies wildly from one pollster to the other. 4 percentage points is outside the MoE. Something ain't right, it can't be.
Final polling will be fascinating, but they can't all be right.0 -
The polls represent a Conservative majority of 50-100 which isn't bad, objectively. Only in comparison to what they might have had.
Also LibDems AWOL.0 -
@LadPolitics: This is good. Someone making a specific prediction. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/8685627809909596210
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Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems0
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In 2015 the polls, the people who obsess over polls, and the betting, which is largely shaped by people who obsess over polls, made NOM a certainty '1.1 free money'
They feed off each other, inside the over engaged bubble. That's why they are so often so wrong.
On the other hand, for things like Lab leader they are very accurate, because the people being polled and the people with a vote at the ballot have the same level of engagement0 -
'If these polls are accurate then I’ll owe Jeremy Corbyn an apology,'
So you'll be forced to apologise to an apologist. Neat.0 -
I don't reckon they'll get 33Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: This is good. Someone making a specific prediction. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/868562780990959621
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I honestly don't know what to believe anymore. Roll on Jun 8th!isam said:
I don't reckon they'll get 33Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: This is good. Someone making a specific prediction. #GE2017 twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/868562780990959621
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ELBOW weekly average leads:
23/4 = 19.4%
30/4 = 18.2%
7/5 = 18.6%
14/5 = 17.2%
21/5 = 12.9%
28/5 (so far!) = 8.0%0 -
The useless May deserves to lose this election. The only reason she will win this is that her opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. What as a nation have we done to deserve this?0
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If May gets a majority of 50-60, she will have been vindicated, even if it's much less than hoped for.
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.0 -
UKIP collapsing and the LDs still in the doldrums helps Corbyn, if Foot and Kinnock had not had the SDP/Alliance to deal with Labour would likely have polled higher in 1983 and 1987 too0
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Tory majority of 95. Been my prediction all along and I'm sticking to it. The odds should have lengthened on it by tomorrow night, I'm not yet on.Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: This is good. Someone making a specific prediction. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/868562780990959621
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I wouldn't describe a range of 4% in Labour's support, i.e. between 34%- 38% as varying "wildly". This is only around 1% outside the statistical margin of error for polls of this size and nature and in fact very much suggests that they are in the right ballpark. The same goes, in fact more so, for the Tories' consistent level of support.Jason said:FPT
Currently, the Tories remarkably consistent, but Labour's 34-38 varies wildly from one pollster to the other. 4 percentage points is outside the MoE. Something ain't right, it can't be.
Final polling will be fascinating, but they can't all be right.0 -
Some atonement for your Kuenssberg weirdness.SeanT said:I confess I am oddly attracted to TV's Dr Lucy Worsley.
She has that petite posh Tinkerbell thing going on.
You'd certainly get some good après chat.
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I'm not the only one then ;-)SeanT said:I confess I am oddly attracted to TV's Dr Lucy Worsley.
She has that petite posh Tinkerbell thing going on.0 -
Well many thought they couldn't get 30, and look where we are. I felt low thirties was the best they could do, but so far the surge shows little sign of reversing in any significant way. The Tory share is high enough to win, but a sub 10 lead is just as likely as anything above it, perhaps more likely - a few polls have then just over, but show a downward trend in the lead and were coming from much higher previous polls, and the new normal is sub 10 or getting close to it. What will the new normal be next week? More 5-7 leads? 3-5? I'll make a prediction right now - it won't be a return to 15+.isam said:
I don't reckon they'll get 33Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: This is good. Someone making a specific prediction. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/868562780990959621
The LDs deserve much criticism for not eating into either CON or LAB, to the point Lab are pushing 40% under Corbyn. Pathetic showing even with difficulty getting publicity and Labour running a good campaign - their best hope, if the polls are right, is that they are in fact going backwards in a lot of places, but increasing their support in the seats they currently hold and a few targets seats (as may well be the case in Scotland).0 -
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He believes his own lie. That in itself makes him a more effective opposition.Sean_F said:If May gets a majority of 50-60, she will have been vindicated, even if it's much less than hoped for.
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.0 -
FPT
And I maintain that the EU cannot reach it's final goal without destroying ALL its member nations, replacing them with a new structure which it believes is better.AlastairMeeks said:
.... but I have never (never mind continuously) insisted that Britain couldn't leave the EU without destroying the nation, either literally or metaphorically.
I don't believe that it would be better. I respect the idealism of the pan-europeans but think them dangerously naive. However, "your mileage may vary" (as the saying goes).
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Does anyone - anyone! - and i include the PB Tories - think May will make a good PM? Anyone??0
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Lib Dems are now just part of a bumpy multicoloured floor on the bar charts.TheWhiteRabbit said:The polls represent a Conservative majority of 50-100 which isn't bad, objectively. Only in comparison to what they might have had.
Also LibDems AWOL.0 -
Phew. Glad to see you on a Saturday night thread Max. Was worried the polling tension had become too much!MaxPB said:
Also, Rachel Riley was at Ox the same time as me. It is a tragedy that our paths never crossed....0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn9E5i7l-EgbobajobPB said:The useless May deserves to lose this election. The only reason she will win this is that her opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. What as a nation have we done to deserve this?
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Yes, Corbyn is no voter repellent, it would seem. Are all these doorstep anecdotes from activists saying Corbyn is a repellent just finding the unusual ones, total lies, or hugely magnified? Though it seems such reports have either dried up or people have stopped reporting on them in the past week; how peculiar now that they look to be nonsense.0
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Her husband is an ultra endurance athlete.SeanT said:I confess I am oddly attracted to TV's Dr Lucy Worsley.
She has that petite posh Tinkerbell thing going on.
Let your imagination run with that....
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With that naughty Brizzle accent.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
No. Absolutely not. It is only the fact that all other (available) alternatives are worse that makes her electable.bobajobPB said:Does anyone - anyone! - and i include the PB Tories - think May will make a good PM? Anyone??
What a bunch we have as leaders - the triumph of the era of the career politician.......not!0 -
Once Scotland's gone, we'll be back to two party politics.
2001-16 was a fun experiment.0 -
A merit-worthy first post on a very busy night for PB.com .... congratulations.RobD said:First!
You must have undergone some very high quality training.0 -
Bah, polling tension. Though we wouldn't have any if Theresa wasn't so crap, or at least fired Nick Timothy and got Oliver Letwin back in.Mortimer said:
Phew. Glad to see you on a Saturday night thread Max. Was worried the polling tension had become too much!MaxPB said:
Also, Rachel Riley was at Ox the same time as me. It is a tragedy that our paths never crossed....
Also, very glad we flew in with Swiss today! Normally we go BA. Would probably have got stuck in Zurich and missed one of my best friend's weddings.0 -
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TSE posted the 'new thread' warning too early.peter_from_putney said:
A merit-worthy first post on a very busy night for PB.com .... congratulations.RobD said:First!
You must have undergone some very high quality training.
I've told him that he needs to see someone about it.
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Do people have any thoughts on the Lib Dem leadership after the election, if they do as badly as these polls are suggesting?Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
It looks as though the most credible alternative leaders (including Clegg) are the likeliest to lose their seats.0 -
Sean T still fantasising in his lonely bedsit in Neasden. Nothing changes0
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Got it in one. What has happened with the party under Corbyn (not entirely at his direction, but beyond his ability to prevent) shows his general inability to do a job like PM, and his policy offer, while lovely, is not one I can believe (if I could believe it I might vote for it - who would say no to increases to everything we like? The Tories politically made a mistake being slightly honest about taking things away), but he looks and sounds ok. It's what makes him worse, in a way, than Abbott, who comes across as a fool, and an arrogant fool at that. I certainly never expected a rise so significant, and have to hold my hand up that turns out he was right, he is popular among more than just his core crowd, but Labour holding up reasonable was always possible under him.SeanT said:
It's that basic, I think. He looks the part, now, and he sounds OK, and his policies are popular and easy-to-understand. Bingo, a ten point lift in the polls. Most people don't care about the IRA, or they aren't aware of his past, and these people can never be reached, so they can't be enlightened.Sean_F said:If May gets a majority of 50-60, she will have been vindicated, even if it's much less than hoped for.
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.0 -
Corbyn fills 50% of the voters with horror.SeanT said:
Yep. When I first saw Jezza in a proper suit, and tie, and talking sense, I subconsciously thought: Oh, OK, he's a serious politician. And I despise him and his views!Sean_F said:If May gets a majority of 50-60, she will have been vindicated, even if it's much less than hoped for.
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.
It's that basic, I think. He looks the part, now, and he sounds OK, and his policies are popular and easy-to-understand. Bingo, a ten point lift in the polls. Most people don't care about the IRA, or they aren't aware of his past, and these people can never be reached, so they can't be enlightened.
But the more aware section of the population is alert to the danger, and cannot be persuaded to vote for him, ever. Even if they despair of that silly woman Theresa May (who is gravely disappointing)
The Tories will get 43-46 and Labour's slightly flaky Coalition of WNVs and DKs will, in fact, subside to 33 or so.
Which means my original prediction of a Tory maj of 80-100 still seems ballparky.
But, there's plainly a lot of support for radical socialism, if offered by people who are clearly patriotic.0 -
While I simply regard views such as yours as straightforwardly deranged. You start from a premise and work backwards.Disraeli said:FPT
And I maintain that the EU cannot reach it's final goal without destroying ALL its member nations, replacing them with a new structure which it believes is better.AlastairMeeks said:
.... but I have never (never mind continuously) insisted that Britain couldn't leave the EU without destroying the nation, either literally or metaphorically.
I don't believe that it would be better. I respect the idealism of the pan-europeans but think them dangerously naive. However, "your mileage may vary" (as the saying goes).0 -
But why? Remember all that "the 48%" stuff? What happened to the Remainers?Freggles said:
Lib Dems are now just part of a bumpy multicoloured floor on the bar charts.TheWhiteRabbit said:The polls represent a Conservative majority of 50-100 which isn't bad, objectively. Only in comparison to what they might have had.
Also LibDems AWOL.0 -
The true thinking man's crumpet is Mary BeardTony_M said:0 -
It will be Hobson's choice, but Farron won't have any other MPs to lead!Chris said:
Do people have any thoughts on the Lib Dem leadership after the election, if they do as badly as these polls are suggesting?Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
It looks as though the most credible alternative leaders (including Clegg) are the likeliest to lose their seats.0 -
This was marketed as the Brexit election but it hasn't turned out that way. Conversely, if reports are true and Crosby is getting the Tories to hammer away on Brexit for the final fortnight then that may help the Lib Dems.glw said:
That is by far the most surprising thing of the whole election campaign. The Remain fight back hasn't even got off the runway.Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
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Are you voting for the candidate in your Constituency best placed to defeat the Tories?bobajobPB said:The useless May deserves to lose this election. The only reason she will win this is that her opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. What as a nation have we done to deserve this?
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A majority of 50 to 60 on this manifesto is much better than a majority of 150 on an anodyne manifesto.Sean_F said:If May gets a majority of 50-60, she will have been vindicated, even if it's much less than hoped for.
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.
Looking at tonight's polls, I'm comfortable saying that the current "true" polling position has the CON share around 44%. That's still enough for a comfortable majority.0 -
I've never been a huge fan of May. She seemed dull and competent, and the latter image has certainly taken a hit. But as worrisome as the comparison is given what happened, it's like Clinton and Trump. Maybe Clinton would have been bad, or at least mediocre. But it would have been on a scale that is pretty within the range of the expected. Corbyn would be a Trump, only without the outsider status (that guff about him being one because he was on the backbenchers is nonsense) or some measure of proven success or appearance of success in other areas.bobajobPB said:Does anyone - anyone! - and i include the PB Tories - think May will make a good PM? Anyone??
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Wonder where the spreads will settle...0
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No. Corbyn is massively voter-repellent to voters aged over 45, but he enthuses young voters.kle4 said:Yes, Corbyn is no voter repellent, it would seem. Are all these doorstep anecdotes from activists saying Corbyn is a repellent just finding the unusual ones, total lies, or hugely magnified? Though it seems such reports have either dried up or people have stopped reporting on them in the past week; how peculiar now that they look to be nonsense.
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Another lovely historianTony_M said: 0 -
Impossible.bobajobPB said:
Tory majority of 95. Been my prediction all along and I'm sticking to it. The odds should have lengthened on it by tomorrow night, I'm not yet on.Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: This is good. Someone making a specific prediction. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/868562780990959621
The majority has to be an even number as there is an even number of seats.
Unless you're predicting a delayed poll in an odd number of constituencies...!
FWIW, I'd happily settle for 94 or 96. My best results are Con Maj 76-98 and LD sub 20.0 -
But that's the choice on offer, so in relative terms she is good. Though in absolute terms I tend to agree, she's crap.bobajobPB said:0 -
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Probably, although in my seat the Tories are 100% certain to win.bigjohnowls said:
Are you voting for the candidate in your Constituency best placed to defeat the Tories?bobajobPB said:The useless May deserves to lose this election. The only reason she will win this is that her opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. What as a nation have we done to deserve this?
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"Theresa May is the worst form of government. Apart from all the others that have been tried from time to time!"Disraeli said:
No. Absolutely not. It is only the fact that all other (available) alternatives are worse that makes her electable.bobajobPB said:Does anyone - anyone! - and i include the PB Tories - think May will make a good PM? Anyone??
What a bunch we have as leaders - the triumph of the era of the career politician.......not!0 -
An admirable position to take, although the one concern for me on that is that Corbyn will almost certainly remain as Leader if the majority is only 50-60, and he will have obtained a vote share so creditable he will stay and his successor will be of his choosing, which does not bode well - his supporters can say how great he is if they like, and certainly he is not repelling voters as he was predicted by many, but the shambles of Labour in parliament for the past 2 years is tied to his leadership, the man did not have the support of most of his own MPs, and the talk of him not being up to the LOTO job let alone PM job has ample evidence to support it, and that's not good for anyone in the long run.ThreeQuidder said:
A majority of 50 to 60 on this manifesto is much better than a majority of 150 on an anodyne manifesto.Sean_F said:If May gets a majority of 50-60, she will have been vindicated, even if it's much less than hoped for.
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.
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I'm voting for the candidate to best defeat the socialist/marxist/leninist/fenianbigjohnowls said:
Are you voting for the candidate in your Constituency best placed to defeat the Tories?bobajobPB said:The useless May deserves to lose this election. The only reason she will win this is that her opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. What as a nation have we done to deserve this?
:-)0 -
Again, you haven't answered my question. Any fuckwit could take us out of the EU. Even I could.GIN1138 said:
"Good" is a POV. She'll take us out of the EU properly, which for me is good but I suspect for you is bad.bobajobPB said:Does anyone - anyone! - and i include the PB Tories - think May will make a good PM? Anyone??
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Don't worry,still council elections ;-)Pong said:Once Scotland's gone, we'll be back to two party politics.
2001-16 was a fun experiment.0 -
They are voting Labour. In the Yougov or ORB, Labour + LD + Greens = 48%. With SNP, the "Progressives" are 52%. This is true now for almost 10 days.glw said:
But why? Remember all that "the 48%" stuff? What happened to the Remainers?Freggles said:
Lib Dems are now just part of a bumpy multicoloured floor on the bar charts.TheWhiteRabbit said:The polls represent a Conservative majority of 50-100 which isn't bad, objectively. Only in comparison to what they might have had.
Also LibDems AWOL.0 -
It must be v hard for the pollsters to judge Labour's true turn-out position vs polling answers with so much of their increased support reportedly coming from those historically less likely to actually vote on GE day or never to have voted, it's surely guess-work if Corbyn will be the Heineken leader this time.
I say he won't!0 -
Specifically, putting tonight's YouGov into electoralcalculus.co.uk, the three alternatives to Farron would be (1) Mark Williams, (2) Alistair Carmichael (who kept his job by convincing a court he had lied in an official rather than a personal capacity) and (3) Greg Mulholland (a Christian with a record of voting against same-sex marriage and abortion).Chris said:
Do people have any thoughts on the Lib Dem leadership after the election, if they do as badly as these polls are suggesting?Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
It looks as though the most credible alternative leaders (including Clegg) are the likeliest to lose their seats.
ROTFL.0 -
So the Yougov poll consisting mainly of pb Conservatives shows them still on 43%0
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I had one person say that to me yesterday. Others were more of the opinion that Lab was more on working people's side under him and that was down to Jezza.kle4 said:Yes, Corbyn is no voter repellent, it would seem. Are all these doorstep anecdotes from activists saying Corbyn is a repellent just finding the unusual ones, total lies, or hugely magnified? Though it seems such reports have either dried up or people have stopped reporting on them in the past week; how peculiar now that they look to be nonsense.
The Social Care proposal was the game changer I think on the doorstep
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Not a surprise to me. I said that Tories deserting to the LibDems over Brexit was the dog that would not bark. And I said shortly before the election was called that the LibDem approach was fraught with danger and I could see them making a net loss of seats. Scotland might possibly save them from that ignominy, but not by much.glw said:
That is by far the most surprising thing of the whole election campaign. The Remain fight back hasn't even got off the runway.Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
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I think she will be okay, not great, and maybe not even good. Clearly better than Brown, not as good as Major.bobajobPB said:
First thing May needs to do if she wins is to have to have a serious rethink about those she has working alongside her. She also needs to think about what she said on becoming PM, and deliver substantial improvements for the working class, not platitudes and couple of insubstantial tweaks to policy.0 -
Oh for the old days, when people thought their current leaders were the best there'd been, and whose predecessors looked bad in comparison...0
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He is dependent on them, and they usually do not turn out - I have theorized that this election being so hot on the heels of Brexit and the last GE may mean that disappointed youngsters who said they'd vote and didn't last time might actually do it this time, but it is only a theory - but while his support with them would always have been higher, I doubt anyone expected high enough to lead to a narrowing in the polls so dramatic.Sean_F said:
No. Corbyn is massively voter-repellent to voters aged over 45, but he enthuses young voters.kle4 said:Yes, Corbyn is no voter repellent, it would seem. Are all these doorstep anecdotes from activists saying Corbyn is a repellent just finding the unusual ones, total lies, or hugely magnified? Though it seems such reports have either dried up or people have stopped reporting on them in the past week; how peculiar now that they look to be nonsense.
Moreover, the idea for many was that the more people saw of him and Labour's policies under him, the less support they would get, eg it would repel people. Well it hasn't.0 -
Sean_F said:
Corbyn fills 50% of the voters with horror.SeanT said:
Yep. When I first saw Jezza in a proper suit, and tie, and talking sense, I subconsciously thought: Oh, OK, he's a serious politician. And I despise him and his views!Sean_F said:If May gets a majority of 50-60, she will have been vindicated, even if it's much less than hoped for.
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.
It's that basic, I think. He looks the part, now, and he sounds OK, and his policies are popular and easy-to-understand. Bingo, a ten point lift in the polls. Most people don't care about the IRA, or they aren't aware of his past, and these people can never be reached, so they can't be enlightened.
But the more aware section of the population is alert to the danger, and cannot be persuaded to vote for him, ever. Even if they despair of that silly woman Theresa May (who is gravely disappointing)
The Tories will get 43-46 and Labour's slightly flaky Coalition of WNVs and DKs will, in fact, subside to 33 or so.
Which means my original prediction of a Tory maj of 80-100 still seems ballparky.
But, there's plainly a lot of support for radical socialism, if offered by people who are clearly patriotic.
Of course there is Sean, because it's candy floss and toys for everyone. What's not to like?Sean_F said:
Corbyn fills 50% of the voters with horror.SeanT said:
Yep. When I first saw Jezza in a proper suit, and tie, and talking sense, I subconsciously thought: Oh, OK, he's a serious politician. And I despise him and his views!Sean_F said:If May gets a majority of 50-60, she will have been vindicated, even if it's much less than hoped for.
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.
It's that basic, I think. He looks the part, now, and he sounds OK, and his policies are popular and easy-to-understand. Bingo, a ten point lift in the polls. Most people don't care about the IRA, or they aren't aware of his past, and these people can never be reached, so they can't be enlightened.
But the more aware section of the population is alert to the danger, and cannot be persuaded to vote for him, ever. Even if they despair of that silly woman Theresa May (who is gravely disappointing)
The Tories will get 43-46 and Labour's slightly flaky Coalition of WNVs and DKs will, in fact, subside to 33 or so.
Which means my original prediction of a Tory maj of 80-100 still seems ballparky.
But, there's plainly a lot of support for radical socialism, if offered by people who are clearly patriotic.
People like nice things for no pain. The trouble is, with socialism, there is always pain, in the end.
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But contrary to popular PB belief British politics doesn't revolve around Brexit.GIN1138 said:
"Good" is a POV. She'll take us out of the EU properly, which for me is good but I suspect for you is bad.bobajobPB said:Does anyone - anyone! - and i include the PB Tories - think May will make a good PM? Anyone??
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You live in Bootle and I claim my five pounds...bobajobPB said:
Probably, although in my seat the Tories are 100% certain to win.bigjohnowls said:
Are you voting for the candidate in your Constituency best placed to defeat the Tories?bobajobPB said:The useless May deserves to lose this election. The only reason she will win this is that her opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. What as a nation have we done to deserve this?
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I don't think so. The public are bored of Brexit and moved on. They are not interested in process, though they are interested in destination. They want to know what a future Britain looks like, hence Labours policies on nationalisation, social care, tuition fees etc.KentRising said:
This was marketed as the Brexit election but it hasn't turned out that way. Conversely, if reports are true and Crosby is getting the Tories to hammer away on Brexit for the final fortnight then that may help the Lib Dems.glw said:
That is by far the most surprising thing of the whole election campaign. The Remain fight back hasn't even got off the runway.Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
Labour is the only party in England with a vision of the future, and it is a future based on Brexit. The Tories still seem stuck in a place where they have left but not left, a sort of schrodingers Brexit.0 -
OK, if we have to talk about women we fancy, let's do it propery instead of salivating over history professors and weirdos -
https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2208134/soaps-hottest-woman-includes-pictures/p150 -
It's a really intriguing market I think. I'll wait til nearer the 8th before a bet. Lamb was 2/1 fav a week or so ago. He's 9/2 now because he's no longer fav for his seat. I think he might now be the value bet because if he does hold his seat he's hot fav for the job.Chris said:
Do people have any thoughts on the Lib Dem leadership after the election, if they do as badly as these polls are suggesting?Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
It looks as though the most credible alternative leaders (including Clegg) are the likeliest to lose their seats.0 -
If she wins back her seat Jo Swinson will be the next leader .paulyork64 said:
It's a really intriguing market I think. I'll wait til nearer the 8th before a bet. Lamb was 2/1 fav a week or so ago. He's 9/2 now because he's no longer fav for his seat. I think he might now be the value bet because if he does hold his seat he's hot fav for the job.Chris said:
Do people have any thoughts on the Lib Dem leadership after the election, if they do as badly as these polls are suggesting?Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
It looks as though the most credible alternative leaders (including Clegg) are the likeliest to lose their seats.0 -
Flew to a Malaga stag a few weeks ago with BA. Attrocious.MaxPB said:
Bah, polling tension. Though we wouldn't have any if Theresa wasn't so crap, or at least fired Nick Timothy and got Oliver Letwin back in.Mortimer said:
Phew. Glad to see you on a Saturday night thread Max. Was worried the polling tension had become too much!MaxPB said:
Also, Rachel Riley was at Ox the same time as me. It is a tragedy that our paths never crossed....
Also, very glad we flew in with Swiss today! Normally we go BA. Would probably have got stuck in Zurich and missed one of my best friend's weddings.
Whoever came up with the clever idea of getting very experienced air stewards who are used to charmingly doling out free goodies to charge for them has probably just cost them their short haul business model, and all their differentiation from Easyjet etc.
They do realise that many business people flew BA so they don't have to faff around with expenses claims, right?0 -
ICM?0
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Sarah-Jane for MeeeJason said:OK, if we have to talk about women we fancy, let's do it propery instead of salivating over history professors and weirdos -
https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2208134/soaps-hottest-woman-includes-pictures/p150 -
Theresa May is heading for the highest vote share for any party for more than 20 years, and yet people are calling her a failure. Amazing.0
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Are we done - can I go to bed?
I need to get up at 3am {not old man reasons]0 -
But what more is there to say about Brexit? We're leaving....job done. Not much of a dialogue for 7 weeks. Anybody in CCHQ who thought this wouldn't end up being about everything but Brexit was an idiot.KentRising said:
This was marketed as the Brexit election but it hasn't turned out that way. Conversely, if reports are true and Crosby is getting the Tories to hammer away on Brexit for the final fortnight then that may help the Lib Dems.glw said:
That is by far the most surprising thing of the whole election campaign. The Remain fight back hasn't even got off the runway.Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
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PBTories had drunk too long from the post 2010 'yah, so, we've gotta get Lib Dem votes like, everywah' kool-aid to see the advantage of winning seats directly from Labour.....AndyJS said:Theresa May is heading for the highest vote share for any party for more than 20 years, and yet people are calling her a failure. Amazing.
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I think Matthew Goodwin is right. The polls are overestimating Labour, as usual.Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: This is good. Someone making a specific prediction. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/868562780990959621
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Mortimer said:
You live in Bootle and I claim my five pounds...bobajobPB said:
Probably, although in my seat the Tories are 100% certain to win.bigjohnowls said:
Are you voting for the candidate in your Constituency best placed to defeat the Tories?bobajobPB said:The useless May deserves to lose this election. The only reason she will win this is that her opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. What as a nation have we done to deserve this?
Mortimer said:
You live in Bootle and I claim my five pounds...bobajobPB said:
Probably, although in my seat the Tories are 100% certain to win.bigjohnowls said:
Are you voting for the candidate in your Constituency best placed to defeat the Tories?bobajobPB said:The useless May deserves to lose this election. The only reason she will win this is that her opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. What as a nation have we done to deserve this?
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There maybe a Survation out soon.Scrapheap_as_was said:Are we done - can I go to bed?
I need to get up at 3am {not old man reasons]
My reliable sources say we should be getting an ICM but that might not be until the morning.
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Oh, he'll have a few. It's always worth having an revisit on the assessment of LD chances.daodao said:
It will be Hobson's choice, but Farron won't have any other MPs to lead!Chris said:
Do people have any thoughts on the Lib Dem leadership after the election, if they do as badly as these polls are suggesting?Pulpstar said:Polls look horrendous for the Lib Dems
It looks as though the most credible alternative leaders (including Clegg) are the likeliest to lose their seats.
Carshalton - seen as tough for them to retain.
Orkney - despite being pretty close last time and the Carmichael factor, he should win pretty comfortably.
Hallam - Clegg's in real trouble, reliant on that there was a Labour surge in his seat last time, that was unusual for the constituency, not being repeated, and thus lack of Tory tacticals is not fatal to him. I see some saying he should be safe, others thinking he'll struggle, so it cannot be a certainty.
Westmoreland - some chatter about Farron under pressure, and he's had a bad campaign even with the poor hand he as LD leader has been dealt (I am genuinely frustrated Labour have surged at their expense), but should be safe.
North Norfolk - another tough one to retain. Some say local factors mean he is ok, strict models say its a goner.
Leeds - a toss up, apparently. More likely to retain than not perhaps.
Richmond - Another tough one to retain.
Southport - fight on their hands, could hold, might lose.
Ceredigion - Tough fight maybe, but should retain.
Target
Cambridge - I think it is safe to write this one off - Labour are surging somewhere and if it is anywhere surely it is a place like Cambridge?
Edinburgh West - They're probably still confident
SW London seats - relying on a campaigning surge that hasn't occurred? Unless they are going backwards elsewhere and rising here, not great chances
A couple other scottish seats - could get lucky, depends how well any tactical voting goes.
Most other places that were former LD seats? Don't make me laugh.0
