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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s YouGov and ORB polls have the Tory lead in the singl
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s YouGov and ORB polls have the Tory lead in the single digits
Tonight's @YouGov @thesundaytimes poll
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Currently, the Tories remarkably consistent, but Labour's 34-38 varies wildly from one pollster to the other. 4 percentage points is outside the MoE. Something ain't right, it can't be.
Final polling will be fascinating, but they can't all be right.
Also LibDems AWOL.
They feed off each other, inside the over engaged bubble. That's why they are so often so wrong.
On the other hand, for things like Lab leader they are very accurate, because the people being polled and the people with a vote at the ballot have the same level of engagement
So you'll be forced to apologise to an apologist. Neat.
23/4 = 19.4%
30/4 = 18.2%
7/5 = 18.6%
14/5 = 17.2%
21/5 = 12.9%
28/5 (so far!) = 8.0%
I agree that Corbyn has been a much better campaigner than I expected.
You'd certainly get some good après chat.
The LDs deserve much criticism for not eating into either CON or LAB, to the point Lab are pushing 40% under Corbyn. Pathetic showing even with difficulty getting publicity and Labour running a good campaign - their best hope, if the polls are right, is that they are in fact going backwards in a lot of places, but increasing their support in the seats they currently hold and a few targets seats (as may well be the case in Scotland).
I don't believe that it would be better. I respect the idealism of the pan-europeans but think them dangerously naive. However, "your mileage may vary" (as the saying goes).
Also, Rachel Riley was at Ox the same time as me. It is a tragedy that our paths never crossed....
Let your imagination run with that....
What a bunch we have as leaders - the triumph of the era of the career politician.......not!
She's certainly not yet a good PM.
2001-16 was a fun experiment.
You must have undergone some very high quality training.
Also, very glad we flew in with Swiss today! Normally we go BA. Would probably have got stuck in Zurich and missed one of my best friend's weddings.
I've told him that he needs to see someone about it.
It looks as though the most credible alternative leaders (including Clegg) are the likeliest to lose their seats.
But, there's plainly a lot of support for radical socialism, if offered by people who are clearly patriotic.
Looking at tonight's polls, I'm comfortable saying that the current "true" polling position has the CON share around 44%. That's still enough for a comfortable majority.
The majority has to be an even number as there is an even number of seats.
Unless you're predicting a delayed poll in an odd number of constituencies...!
FWIW, I'd happily settle for 94 or 96. My best results are Con Maj 76-98 and LD sub 20.
:-)
I say he won't!
ROTFL.
The Social Care proposal was the game changer I think on the doorstep
First thing May needs to do if she wins is to have to have a serious rethink about those she has working alongside her. She also needs to think about what she said on becoming PM, and deliver substantial improvements for the working class, not platitudes and couple of insubstantial tweaks to policy.
Moreover, the idea for many was that the more people saw of him and Labour's policies under him, the less support they would get, eg it would repel people. Well it hasn't.
People like nice things for no pain. The trouble is, with socialism, there is always pain, in the end.
Labour is the only party in England with a vision of the future, and it is a future based on Brexit. The Tories still seem stuck in a place where they have left but not left, a sort of schrodingers Brexit.
https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2208134/soaps-hottest-woman-includes-pictures/p15
Whoever came up with the clever idea of getting very experienced air stewards who are used to charmingly doling out free goodies to charge for them has probably just cost them their short haul business model, and all their differentiation from Easyjet etc.
They do realise that many business people flew BA so they don't have to faff around with expenses claims, right?
I need to get up at 3am {not old man reasons]
My reliable sources say we should be getting an ICM but that might not be until the morning.
Carshalton - seen as tough for them to retain.
Orkney - despite being pretty close last time and the Carmichael factor, he should win pretty comfortably.
Hallam - Clegg's in real trouble, reliant on that there was a Labour surge in his seat last time, that was unusual for the constituency, not being repeated, and thus lack of Tory tacticals is not fatal to him. I see some saying he should be safe, others thinking he'll struggle, so it cannot be a certainty.
Westmoreland - some chatter about Farron under pressure, and he's had a bad campaign even with the poor hand he as LD leader has been dealt (I am genuinely frustrated Labour have surged at their expense), but should be safe.
North Norfolk - another tough one to retain. Some say local factors mean he is ok, strict models say its a goner.
Leeds - a toss up, apparently. More likely to retain than not perhaps.
Richmond - Another tough one to retain.
Southport - fight on their hands, could hold, might lose.
Ceredigion - Tough fight maybe, but should retain.
Target
Cambridge - I think it is safe to write this one off - Labour are surging somewhere and if it is anywhere surely it is a place like Cambridge?
Edinburgh West - They're probably still confident
SW London seats - relying on a campaigning surge that hasn't occurred? Unless they are going backwards elsewhere and rising here, not great chances
A couple other scottish seats - could get lucky, depends how well any tactical voting goes.
Most other places that were former LD seats? Don't make me laugh.