politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first two polls of tonight show the Tory lead halving in a

MTimT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Yes. My friend in longterm care has been there years following his stroke.

He seems surprisingly happy with his lot, but that may in itself be because of some brain damage in the frontal lobe. Merciful if so.

This is an astonishing book in many ways, but the author was another person who enjoyed life despite a catastrophic neurological event:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Diving-Bell-Butterfly-Jean-Dominique-Bauby/dp/0007139845

Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.

Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.

Minor typo here - it's Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi.

But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps that YouGov wasn't an outlier

https://twitter.com/Patrick_E_Scott/status/868559397005520896

All tonight's polls have the Tories in the 44-46% range so far, the bigger difference is the Labour score which ranges from 34% to 38%

Rubber sheets required for the PB Tories!

SandyRentool said:

Rubber sheets required for the PB Tories!

Latex is much better, so much easier to clean up.

Dadge said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

It's fair to say that if EU25 hadn't happened, immigration to the UK would've been much lower in the period since 2004. But economically that immigration has proved to be a massive boost to the UK economy. Unemployment rates have stayed relatively low and government tax receipts have stayed relatively high.

Is Brexit a red herring regarding immigration? British business, and ordinary people who use the services they provide, will find it difficult to get by without the large immigrant workforce, and the economy is likely to contract. Theresa May kept issuing pointless figures about reducing immigration knowing full well that it wasn't going to happen and the government didn't really want it to happen, and she continues to do the same thing. Can a Conservative government really resist the call of industry and agriculture for a continued supply of reliable, hard-working, non-bolshie and, yes, relatively cheap labour? The simple answer is no.

Racists were relatively happy that EU migration meant that most immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.

If the black and Asian new migrants are skilled and needed - bring it on but eastern european immigration which is unskilled and poor and coming here not for a job then it can f--- right off.(Example the inner city I live)

MyBurningEars said:

MTimT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Yes. My friend in longterm care has been there years following his stroke.

He seems surprisingly happy with his lot, but that may in itself be because of some brain damage in the frontal lobe. Merciful if so.

This is an astonishing book in many ways, but the author was another person who enjoyed life despite a catastrophic neurological event:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Diving-Bell-Butterfly-Jean-Dominique-Bauby/dp/0007139845

Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.

Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.

Minor typo here - it's Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi.

But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)

Hungarian is phonetic but not intuitively so.

The Corbyn IRA attack ad is powerful and compelling. But there is one aspect of it that still needs emphasis. What sort of man invites to the place of work of two murdered men Anthony Berry and Airey Neave apologists for their killers? That was only ever permissible if the families of the murder victims were consulted and expressly consented to the invitation being made.Did Corbyn do that? It is not only his judgement that is in question. It is his common decency.

Jason said:

Three so far have Labour on 34, 35 and 38%. Tories on a far more consistent 44-46%. So MoE worst case for Tories - 41, worst case scenario for Labour 31%, best case Tory 49% and Labour on an eye watering 41%.

Corbyn on a possible 41%, higher than Blair's landslide in 2001? Does that look credible to anyone?

Probably not.
But hardly less so than a May-lead Tory party on 49%.

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

LOL

Hah

On my long, long walk through the Chilterns today I realised I didn't particularly care about most of the various outcomes of the election (bar an outright Corbyn majority: which I think is literally impossible)

Big Tory victory: glorious, revered TMay has a mandate and a firm hand, good for the best possible hard Brexit, if that is what we must endure

Small Tory victory: TMay is weakened, she will have to listen to other voices (including Soft Brexiteers), she might fall (and good riddance to this ludicrous, overdressed old witch)

Hung Parliament with Tory plurality: TMay goes, we get Soft Brexit under brilliant Boris (or whoever takes over the Tories)

Hung Parliament with Labour plurality, supported by the Scot Nats: this is the one which worries me. But it's really VERY unlikely, the electoral maths are horrific for Labour.

So: I am suddenly quite sanguine.

Is there any guarantee Boris would do soft Brexit, after all he effectively led the Leave campaign and used played the immigration card and getting millions back from Brussels to fund the NHS. Also, EU leaders loathe Boris, especially Macron who called him a 'criminal' they do not loathe May, Macron was happily chatting 1 on 1 with her at the G7 and said she has to deal with the card she was dealt having been a Remainer, though obviously how much the EU is willing to give depends on how much she is willing to compromise as Merkel and Macron have made clear. If the Tories get a majority of 50-100 I think she may compromise a bit, if the Tory majority is well over 100 the Tory right will be drunk on hard Brexit and she will have to deliver, if the Tory majority falls or it is a hung parliament she may well go and it will be soft Brexit most likely and Hammond is more likely than Boris to deliver it

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarkHopkins said:

Omnium said:

I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.

They're mixed for one reason only. We could just about forgive a man who was misguided in such ways back then. He perhaps did think he would do good.

What's clear is that now, right now, he is suggesting that he should become our PM and that he would implement a set of policies which are so far from reality I can't think of a metaphor. People believe this crap too - free education, unlimited healthcare, a world-leading economy, in the EU for the good bits - but we get to choose, modern railways that run like clockwork, as much power as you want with bills that you won't notice, major companies appointing the underpriviledged to direct their operations in a meaningful way, tea with the Comrade Queen whenever you're in the area....

The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.

"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."

No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.

Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.

Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.

Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.

That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.

Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree

Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868563908302340096

Tories NOT down?
I don't believe it.

dyingswan said:

The Corbyn IRA attack ad is powerful and compelling. But there is one aspect of it that still needs emphasis. What sort of man invites to the place of work of two murdered men Anthony Berry and Airey Neave apologists for their killers? That was only ever permissible if the families of the murder victims were consulted and expressly consented to the invitation being made.Did Corbyn do that? It is not only his judgement that is in question. It is his common decency.

Yes, but Corbyn was a covert peace broker, don'tyaknow.

Tonight's YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc)

dyingswan said:

The Corbyn IRA attack ad is powerful and compelling. But there is one aspect of it that still needs emphasis. What sort of man invites to the place of work of two murdered men Anthony Berry and Airey Neave apologists for their killers?

The word that springs to mind is obvious, but my post would likely get deleted.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc)

Was Thursday night's YouGov Peak Lab?

camel said:

The election has opened a lot of people's eyes to social care facts. I knew nothing - now I've maged to google a little. I understand that the costs of residential care are between 30k and 50k per annum, depending on nursing needs, and that home care is around around 6k per year per hour per day (if that makes sense).

The only thing I don't know is what's the prognosis after the first time care is required. Could I live for twenty years after I first needed home care with dementia. Could I live twenty years after residential care was required? Is it likely? What percentage of people end their days in residential care, and on average how long do they stay there?

After seeing the election hoo-haa, any sensible politician might kick it into the long grass. But some public education would be useful.

A very sensible set of questions to which I only have imperfectly remembered reported answers. In Cumbria when I was a county councillor the first myth was that people lived for years and decades in care facilities. Most live less than a year from first admission.

From my own experience with my mother which was faily typical - old people get along disguising the fact they are stopping half way up stairs for a breather until there is some apparently trivial incident such as flu - end up hospitalised - other things happen - and then the cart tips over and it is immediately apparent they can't look after themselves and more to the point they can't be looked after at home.

In fact this is well down the line - in my mothers case 11 or 12 years from first frailty. The hospital wants to discharge and then social services send people out to measure the steps in the hallway and other seriously pointless things - but ignore the fact that there is only an 88 year old man in the house to give 24 hr attention. The family refuses to allow release - quite rightly and then there is the search for a high dependency care home place - which simply does not exist until someone else dies.

Perhaps Theresa isn't the fool some hope she is. All this discussion on social care means there is a real prospect of a ground breaking National Social Care Act in the next parliament.
Without it the NHS will continue to struggle from one winter crisis to the next and extra money for the NHS is no answer at all.

Comres regional subsamples
North
Cons 43
Lab 45
LD 6
UKIP 5

Midlands
Cons 52
Lab 31
LD 8
UKIP 6

South (incl London)
Cons 47
Labour 33
LD 12
UKIP 5

London (specifically)
Con 33
Lab 44
LD 14
UKIP 5

Scotland
SNP 40
Cons 35
Lab 17
LD 5

Wales
Con 41
Lab 36
Plaid 12
LD 1
UKIP 5
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Independent-Sunday-Mirror-VI-26th-May-2017_694814867.pdf

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarkHopkins said:

Omnium said:

I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.

They're mixed for one reason only. We could just about forgive a man who was misguided in such ways back then. He perhaps did think he would do good.

What's clear is that now, right now, he is suggesting that he should become our PM and that he would implement a set of policies which are so far from reality I can't think of a metaphor. People believe this crap too - free education, unlimited healthcare, a world-leading economy, in the EU for the good bits - but we get to choose, modern railways that run like clockwork, as much power as you want with bills that you won't notice, major companies appointing the underpriviledged to direct their operations in a meaningful way, tea with the Comrade Queen whenever you're in the area....

The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.

"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."

No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.

Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.

Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.

Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.

That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.

Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree

Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.

You still don't get it. And you never will. For me and many people, Brexit = Independence.

You're saying "Independence will drag on forever, once we're free, we're free"

For a lot of us, maybe 52% or more, that is good thing.

Some people quite literally prefer cheap lattes. If it wasn't hilarious it would be tragic....

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

But how many want to remain (no pun intended) here forever? And how does that split between EU and non EU
Do not forget that of the non EU a significant number are for instance US, Canadian, Australian and NZ citizens.
Is there is a churn of overseas students and temporary workers from everywhere whose accommodation requirement are quite limited in their expectations.

Oh I do take your point but should it not be discussed against a background of some agreed detail to the bare facts?

A little over a month ago the Tories had a 24% lead with YouGov

AlastairMeeks said:

MyBurningEars said:

MTimT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Yes. My friend in longterm care has been there years following his stroke.

He seems surprisingly happy with his lot, but that may in itself be because of some brain damage in the frontal lobe. Merciful if so.

This is an astonishing book in many ways, but the author was another person who enjoyed life despite a catastrophic neurological event:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Diving-Bell-Butterfly-Jean-Dominique-Bauby/dp/0007139845

Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.

Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.

Minor typo here - it's Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi.

But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)

Hungarian is phonetic but not intuitively so.

I am glad that I do not have to spell that name to receptionists!

I have downloaded a free sample on kindle, to peruse.

It dors sound a lot like the work ethic to me, but perhaps there is more to it. Thanks.

I predicted 44/35 at the start of the campaign. Looks like will be close to final result.

Razedabode said:

Looks like tory support fairly solid whereas lab relying on traditionally flaky sections of electorate..

Are women particularly flaky?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Rubber sheets required for the PB Tories!

Squeaky ARSE time?

I think it is very funny. I have posted on here before that I believe opinion polls are manipulated to produce a story to make people do certain things in an election campaign. I was listening to Michael Portillo on this week and he said words to the effect that Labour MPs were telling voters that Corbyn couldn't win and so it was alright to vote for them and hence Labour. Just think about what Portillo said, that of the approximately 230 Labour MPs who are now candidates for re-election were telling this to voters and it was shown in the polls. Am I alone in thinking this is utter bull shit? I mean if you canvass for 4 hours as a candidate how many people will you actually speak too? 100, 200 people? I think you would be lucky to speak to more than 40 people. That's if their in! it is just physically impossible to move opinion polls in this way. Again on TV you get people who are life long labour supporters who say they cannot vote for Corbyn, their is a huge disconnect somewhere! So this talk of wobbles is funny but it is an artificial construct of the political discourse that goes on in this country. Just like the Clegg surge of 2010 was in the end rubbish I believe this Corbyn surge is without foundation.

surbiton said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc)

Was Thursday night's YouGov Peak Lab?

Tonight's ORB is the same.

Not quite. ORB is 6% Con Lead where-as Thursday YouGov was 5% Con lead though at 38% Lab's share is the same...

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MyBurningEars said:

MTimT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Yes. My friend in longterm care has been there years following his stroke.

He seems surprisingly happy with his lot, but that may in itself be because of some brain damage in the frontal lobe. Merciful if so.

This is an astonishing book in many ways, but the author was another person who enjoyed life despite a catastrophic neurological event:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Diving-Bell-Butterfly-Jean-Dominique-Bauby/dp/0007139845

Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.

Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.

Minor typo here - it's Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi.

But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)

Hungarian is phonetic but not intuitively so.

I am glad that I do not have to spell that name to receptionists!

I have downloaded a free sample on kindle, to peruse.

It dors sound a lot like the work ethic to me, but perhaps there is more to it. Thanks.

I have to spell my email address in full every single bloody time.

TheScreamingEagles said:

A little over a month ago the Tories had a 24% lead with YouGov

Well we have to deal with the facts as they are presented. I don't know whether you've noticed, but there's a different reality to work with now.

SeanT said:

Bromptonaut said:

SeanT said:

Dadge said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

It's fair to say immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.

But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.

e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?

These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable

We won't have driverless electric taxis in 5 years. Really we won't.

Maybe not. A touch of hyperbole. But in 10-15 years? Yes.

And my overall point is good. Mass immigration is about to become really the LAST thing you want, as jobs dry up.

Not really. We don't have a massive unemployment problem in the UK and there isn't any sign that this will change. Without immigration our birth rate would be below replacement rate and our total population would fall, as it is already in a number of western economies. The bulge of baby boomers reaching retirement, and extending life expectancy, means that working age people will decline as a proportion of the population without an ongoing influx of new workers. The Tories know this, which is why despite a series of promises they have done next to nothing in seven years.

isam said:

SeanT said:

Dadge said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.


This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

It's fair to say that if EU25 hadn't happened, immigration to the UK would've been much lower in the period since 2004. But economically that immigration has proved to be a massive boost to the UK economy. Unemployment rates have stayed relatively low and government tax receipts have stayed relatively high.

SNIP to happen and the government didn't really want it to happen, and she continues to do the same thing. Can a Conservative government really resist the call of industry and agriculture for a continued supply of reliable, hard-working, non-bolshie and, yes, relatively cheap labour? The simple answer is no.

Racists were relatively happy that EU migration meant that most immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.

But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.

e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?

These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable

We would have created a whole raft of unsolvable social problems for a short term economic boost.

That could almost be a metaphor for Conservative party economic policy, 2012 - 2016.

peter_from_putney said:

Jason said:

Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.

With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.

How do the Tories "kill off the Social Care" issue and will anyone care to ask Mrs. May why it is that the Scots get this benefit absolutely for free, whereas the English and Welsh victims of dementia, etc face having to shell out many tens of thousands of pounds.

It's a devolved matter? Unless May is planning to abolish the Scottish Parliament

foxinsoxuk said:

Razedabode said:

Looks like tory support fairly solid whereas lab relying on traditionally flaky sections of electorate..

Are women particularly flaky?

Given he seems to know several Corbynista women, perhaps one for SeanT?

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarkHopkins said:

Omnium said:

I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.

They're mixed for one reason only. We could just about forgive a man who was misguided in such ways back then. He perhaps did think he would do good.

What's clear is that now, right now, he is suggesting that he should become our PM and that he would implement a set of policies which are so far from reality I can't think of a metaphor. People believe this crap too - free education, unlimited healthcare, a world-leading economy, in the EU for the good bits - but we get to choose, modern railways that run like clockwork, as much power as you want with bills that you won't notice, major companies appointing the underpriviledged to direct their operations in a meaningful way, tea with the Comrade Queen whenever you're in the area....

The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.

"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."

No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.

Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.

Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.

Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.

That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.

Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree

Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.

You still don't get it. And you never will. For me and many people, Brexit = Independence.

You're saying "Independence will drag on forever, once we're free, we're free"

For a lot of us, maybe 52% or more, that is good thing.

That's because you (and your mythical many people) are deranged. Britain was independent last year and probably had more practical influence over its future than it will in a couple of years' time.

Control is nothing without power. In future, Britain will be a country that will have things done to it rather than participate in the doing.

Is that it for the polls? *twitch*

So we're just waiting for Survation and possibly ICM now?

#MegaPollingSaturday

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc)

Was Thursday night's YouGov Peak Lab?

I have said it was ever since Thursday.

It's over TMICIPM

peter_from_putney said:

Jason said:

Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.

With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.

How do the Tories "kill off the Social Care" issue and will anyone care to ask Mrs. May why it is that the Scots get this benefit absolutely for free, whereas the English and Welsh victims of dementia, etc face having to shell out many tens of thousands of pounds.

It's a good question, and if I had all the answers, I wouldn't be sitting at my keyboard on a Saturday night discussing the finer points of anal retention with serial anoraks.

So two polls showing Corbyn beating Blair's percentage in 2005 and Cameron's in 2010?

surbiton said:

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

Bromptonaut said:

SeanT said:

Dadge said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

It's fair to say immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.

But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.

e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?

These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable

We won't have driverless electric taxis in 5 years. Really we won't.

Maybe not. A touch of hyperbole. But in 10-15 years? Yes.

And my overall point is good. Mass immigration is about to become really the LAST thing you want, as jobs dry up.

Not really. We don't have a massive unemployment problem in the UK and there isn't any sign that this will change. Without immigration our birth rate would be below replacement rate and our total population would fall, as it is already in a number of western economies. The bulge of baby boomers reaching retirement, and extending life expectancy, means that working age people will decline as a proportion of the population without an ongoing influx of new workers. The Tories know this, which is why despite a series of promises they have done next to nothing in seven years.

Someone has to pay the tax.

And eventually it will have to include the retired themselves, from their property equity. Which that clever Mr Timothy already knows.

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarkHopkins said:

Omnium said:

I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.

They're mixed for one reason only. We could just about forgive a man who was misguided in such ways back then. He perhaps did think he would do good.

What's clear is that now, right now, he is suggesting that he should become our PM and that he would implement a set of policies which are so far from reality I can't think of a metaphor. People believe this crap too - free education, unlimited healthcare, a world-leading economy, in the EU for the good bits - but we get to choose, modern railways that run like clockwork, as much power as you want with bills that you won't notice, major companies appointing the underpriviledged to direct their operations in a meaningful way, tea with the Comrade Queen whenever you're in the area....

The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.

"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."

No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.

Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.

Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.

Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.

That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.

Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree

Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.

You still don't get it. And you never will. For me and many people, Brexit = Independence.

You're saying "Independence will drag on forever, once we're free, we're free"

For a lot of us, maybe 52% or more, that is good thing.

I'm not saying that at all, of course. You are.

Edit: what I do say is that Brexit will be a long drawn out and messy affair that will not deliver any of the benefits many Leave voters projected onto it.

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

At the same population density as the area of Edinburgh I live in (my house, as does every house on the street, has it's own garden) would require 23 square kilometers of space for those 300,000 people.

Or 0.009% of the land area of the UK.

https://twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/868569591940866049

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

At the same population density as the area of Edinburgh I live in (my house, as does every house on the street, has it's own garden) would require 23 square kilometers of space for those 300,000 people.

Or 0.009% of the land area of the UK.

Fly over even the South East of England, and outside the M25 it is mostly fields.

peter_from_putney said:

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A little over a month ago the Tories had a 24% lead with YouGov

ELBOW weekly average leads:

23/4 = 19.4%
30/4 = 18.2%
7/5 = 18.6%
14/5 = 17.2%
21/5 = 12.9%
28/5 (so far!) = 8.0%

If we have anywhere near a similar drop, we will be in Hung Parliament territory.

We need regional polls. The national polls this time is almost useless.

Don't forget that around one-fifth of voters have already exercised their democratic right.

About 10% so far

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/868569591940866049

"One MP demanded the authors of the manifesto be taken out and shot"