politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority mo

I think the Hills Price on 'other' and Con Lib Dem Gov'ts are now 5-1 and 6-1, which is more of a correct price than 12s and 9s (Am on both at 9s and 8s)

Non story - nothing to see - what was that Len, leverage good, no inquiry, Murdoch smears, Tory press after us, Westminster bubble - change The Record...

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/05/the-real-reason-labour-is-petrified-of-re-opening-the-falkirk-inquiry/

Looks as if Labour Uncut are worried about PMQs for some odd reasons due to Falkirk.

dr_spyn said:

Looks as if Labour Uncut are worried about PMQs for some odd reasons due to Falkirk.

They shouldnt be. PMQs is an opportunity for Parliament to ask the PM about how the country is being run rather than for the PM to ask the LoTO about how his party is being run.

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 47s

Miliband unlikely to win union reforms at Spring special conf. without Unite support. Hence tip toes round Falkirk. http://bit.ly/1cBSvsc

Bobajob said:

@Carlotta @Phillip H

What would the role of the SNP be in an independent Scotland? I have often wondered if they'd end up disbanding (I.e. the centre-left and Tartan Tory factions going their separate ways)

I don't know, but the reason for the SNP would be passed. I expect it would morph into whatever position it thought it could continue in power. They won't want to disband the infrastructure they have built up as that is a pathway to power. They will seek power in some way.

Bobajob said:

@Carlotta @Phillip H

What would the role of the SNP be in an independent Scotland? I have often wondered if they'd end up disbanding (I.e. the centre-left and Tartan Tory factions going their separate ways)

Who knows? There will be (probably many) years of negotiation post-independence and the SNP would have a strong claim to 'stand up for Scotland' unlike London Labour, for example.....On the back of either a win or loss, I suspect the SNP is with us for many years to come. Only in the (extremely unlikely) event of a humiliation in the Indy ref might they be in trouble.....

Plato said:

Christ - this is a revelation of the most unwelcome variety

Police probe hospital over ‘falsifying’ cancer times in the Times - as I've been asked not to link to any Times stories - please find the link yourselves unless @PBModerator would advise otherwise.

I think the link is okay, just not any of the text behind the paywall.

"New York mayoral candidate Bill de Blasio's success should give hope to Miliband
The triumph of the radical Democrat proves that you can run from the left and win."

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/new-york-mayoral-candidate-bill-de-blasios-success-should-give-hope-miliband

Just like that other left wing success, Hollande.....

Good afternoon, everyone.

Interesting twitter conversation between Damien Walter (of the Guardian) and John Scalzi* (sci-fi author) about what makes a writer professional.

*I can recommend Scalzi's Old Man's War for a light and engaging book.

Was talking to a banking person today at lunch. Points we discussed...

The composite PMIs point to an annualised growth rate of 4.8%. A very strong performance in all sectors. The figure takes into account a slowdown in oil and gas. The higher 5.2% figure others are using does not, PMI measures manufacturing rather than production.

The sustainability of the recovery is getting stronger as the weeks pass. Business investment is starting to rise again and their proprietary pay index was 51.2 for the month of October while the inflation index was 51.4 which means that gap is starting to close as well. People's disposable incomes are starting to rise.

Moving onto the December statement from the government:

A continuation of the unemployment benefits freeze at 1% for a further year.

An uprating of the minimum wage in line with inflation (he thinks the market can take it this year) to £6.50/h from £6.31/h. That would mean the annual wage for a full time worker goes up from £13,120 to £13,520 - an increase of £400 per year, or £800 for a couple both earning the minimum wage. (A point he made which I definitely can understand.)

A £750m-900m tax on energy companies to fund 2p off the pump price, double whammy there, helps keep inflation down and helps with the cost of living. (A point made by me which he agreed with).

Raising the public sector pay by an extra 0.5% to 1.5% for 2014/15 for people on the basic income tax rate. Keep it at 1% for the higher rate earners. (I thought this seemed like an expensive move, but he said it would be a net positive for the economy and would raise morale in the public sector)

All new infrastructure programme and tentative funding approval for "a new runway somewhere in London" basically meaning Heathrow.

Announcement of new fracking licences and the final green light. Get oil and gas output growing again. A reminder from the chancellor that the fall in oil and gas output has caused a 1.4% loss of GDP growth since 2009/10 and a huge loss in productivity.

Anyway, it was an interesting chat. Raised some points about the minimum wage and public sector pay rises that I had not thought of, and many on PB probably haven't thought of either so I thought it would make for a good discussion point.

Alanbrooke said:

Anorak said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

"New York mayoral candidate Bill de Blasio's success should give hope to Miliband
The triumph of the radical Democrat proves that you can run from the left and win."

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/new-york-mayoral-candidate-bill-de-blasios-success-should-give-hope-miliband

Just like that other left wing success, Hollande.....

Francois is still in la merde, yet another year of breaking deficit rules, so austerity ahoy, or even - perish the thought - economic reform.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/11/05/20002-20131105ARTFIG00327-le-deficit-de-la-france-va-deraper-a-37-en-2015-selon-bruxelles.php

Does anyone know what the EU can actually do about this repeated budgetary rule-breaking? Not that there's a chance they will, obviously. France seems to just do what the hell it wants...

the standard response is to accuse les rosbifs of being anti communautaire and then ask for more money for french farmers.

LOL. Tres bien!

CarlottaVance said:

"New York mayoral candidate Bill de Blasio's success should give hope to Miliband
The triumph of the radical Democrat proves that you can run from the left and win."

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/new-york-mayoral-candidate-bill-de-blasios-success-should-give-hope-miliband

Just like that other left wing success, Hollande.....

If all the UK was like New York, he'd be right.

Cyclefree said:

Anorak said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

"New York mayoral candidate Bill de Blasio's success should give hope to Miliband
The triumph of the radical Democrat proves that you can run from the left and win."

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/new-york-mayoral-candidate-bill-de-blasios-success-should-give-hope-miliband

Just like that other left wing success, Hollande.....

Francois is still in la merde, yet another year of breaking deficit rules, so austerity ahoy, or even - perish the thought - economic reform.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/11/05/20002-20131105ARTFIG00327-le-deficit-de-la-france-va-deraper-a-37-en-2015-selon-bruxelles.php

Does anyone know what the EU can actually do about this repeated budgetary rule-breaking? Not that there's a chance they will, obviously. France seems to just do what the hell it wants...

Probably because Germany's insistence on deflationary policies has brough half the European Continent to its knees. If France and the other Southern European countries got together, they could outvote Germany where it matters.

Then Germany could just stop its money... EU collapse.

He who pays the piper, calls the tune..

A good blog post on the problems with the living wage...

(Some of the comments are interesting too).

http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2013/11/a-living-wage.html

MaxPB said:

Was talking to a banking person today at lunch. Points we discussed...

snip

Moving onto the December statement from the government:

A continuation of the unemployment benefits freeze at 1% for a further year.

An uprating of the minimum wage in line with inflation (he thinks the market can take it this year) to £6.50/h from £6.31/h. That would mean the annual wage for a full time worker goes up from £13,120 to £13,520 - an increase of £400 per year, or £800 for a couple both earning the minimum wage. (A point he made which I definitely can understand.)

snip

All new infrastructure programme and tentative funding approval for "a new runway somewhere in London" basically meaning Heathrow.

Announcement of new fracking licences and the final green light. Get oil and gas output growing again. A reminder from the chancellor that the fall in oil and gas output has caused a 1.4% loss of GDP growth since 2009/10 and a huge loss in productivity.

Anyway, it was an interesting chat. Raised some points about the minimum wage and public sector pay rises that I had not thought of, and many on PB probably haven't thought of either so I thought it would make for a good discussion point.

The Autumn/ winter statement is shaping up to be an important event. The forecasts for growth will be sharply increased and the forecasts for the deficit will sharply fall. At the same time it seems likely that goodies of the type you describe will be on offer.

Personally, I think we should go even further on minimum wage and recover some of the ground lost last year. In the context of an economy which the PMIs indicate is creating 100K jobs a quarter that seems doable and will help the most oppressed in our society at relatively little cost to the Treasury. Ed is not the only one who can bribe people with other peoples' money.

I think the event will be important from the tories' point of view because it is the point at which they have to start to secure swingback if they are to have any chance in 2015. The stability of the Labour vote and the extent of the swing required means that a start really needs to be made and this is likely to be Osborne's best chance.

Bobajob said:

546 days until the general election

Labour Uncut on Falkirk:

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/05/the-real-reason-labour-is-petrified-of-re-opening-the-falkirk-inquiry/

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Happy Christmas tim!!

Louise Mensch‏@LouiseMensch29m
I love @George_Osborne -

Louise!!

James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 3m
Miliband 'won't reopen Falkirk inquiry' because he fears potentially fatal defeat over union reforms, claims @atulh http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/05/the-real-reason-labour-is-petrified-of-re-opening-the-falkirk-inquiry/#.Unkba75jSyQ.twitter …

Weak....weak...weak...

DavidL said:

The Autumn/ winter statement is shaping up to be an important event. The forecasts for growth will be sharply increased and the forecasts for the deficit will sharply fall. At the same time it seems likely that goodies of the type you describe will be on offer.

Personally, I think we should go even further on minimum wage and recover some of the ground lost last year. In the context of an economy which the PMIs indicate is creating 100K jobs a quarter that seems doable and will help the most oppressed in our society at relatively little cost to the Treasury. Ed is not the only one who can bribe people with other peoples' money.

I think the event will be important from the tories' point of view because it is the point at which they have to start to secure swingback if they are to have any chance in 2015. The stability of the Labour vote and the extent of the swing required means that a start really needs to be made and this is likely to be Osborne's best chance.

Rate Total Increase 6.31 13125 ----- 6.5 13520 395.2 6.6 13728 603.2 6.7 13936 811.2 6.8 14144 1019.2

Wage totals and increases at different minimum wage rates. £6.31 is the current rate. A rise to £6.50 assumes 3% inflation. I think the £6.60 rate would balance a decent rise in income for people while also being affordable for businesses.

tim said:

@DavidL

So you're delighted to screw your kids generation over with house price inflation, excited at the rise in unsecured consumer debt and getting tumescent at some unfunded giveways while deficit reduction is dumped and spending lets rip.

Remind me again what the purpose of this govt was supposed to be?

I would suggest leaving them a national debt miles over £1 trillion was a bigger 'screw' to use your eloquence....

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

Was talking to a banking person today at lunch. Points we discussed...

.

The Autumn/ winter statement is shaping up to be an important event. The forecasts for growth will be sharply increased and the forecasts for the deficit will sharply fall. At the same time it seems likely that goodies of the type you describe will be on offer.

Personally, I think we should go even further on minimum wage and recover some of the ground lost last year. In the context of an economy which the PMIs indicate is creating 100K jobs a quarter that seems doable and will help the most oppressed in our society at relatively little cost to the Treasury. Ed is not the only one who can bribe people with other peoples' money.

I think the event will be important from the tories' point of view because it is the point at which they have to start to secure swingback if they are to have any chance in 2015. The stability of the Labour vote and the extent of the swing required means that a start really needs to be made and this is likely to be Osborne's best chance.

100K jobs a quarter sounds alot but still only means we'll be at 1.5m by the time of the next election, so I don't know whether we should be messing with the minimum wage just yet.

I'd prefer to see the NI lower earnings limit put up to at least £10k and if possible both the Personal Allowance and the NI lower limit raised even higher - perhaps to the level of someone working full time on the National Minimum Wage. These changes could be balanced by raising the tax rate on basic and higher earners, perhaps to 25%, so that the benefit is mainly felt by the lowest income workers and is neutral or only slightly beneficial to those on higher wages.

It would be interesting to see how a 'trickle up' economy works.

tim said:

@DavidL

So you're delighted to screw your kids generation over with house price inflation, excited at the rise in unsecured consumer debt and getting tumescent at some unfunded giveways while deficit reduction is dumped and spending lets rip.

Remind me again what the purpose of this govt was supposed to be?

Tim, despite these bribes and adjustments I am pretty confident that I will win our bet by £10bn+.

Next year real wages will start to rise as Max has already referred to, record numbers of people will be in work, aggregate spending will increase whether unsecured debt increases or not and house prices outside London will stuggle to do much more than hold their value in real terms. It's a bitch isn't it?

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

The Autumn/ winter statement is shaping up to be an important event. The forecasts for growth will be sharply increased and the forecasts for the deficit will sharply fall. At the same time it seems likely that goodies of the type you describe will be on offer.

Personally, I think we should go even further on minimum wage and recover some of the ground lost last year. In the context of an economy which the PMIs indicate is creating 100K jobs a quarter that seems doable and will help the most oppressed in our society at relatively little cost to the Treasury. Ed is not the only one who can bribe people with other peoples' money.

I think the event will be important from the tories' point of view because it is the point at which they have to start to secure swingback if they are to have any chance in 2015. The stability of the Labour vote and the extent of the swing required means that a start really needs to be made and this is likely to be Osborne's best chance.

Rate Total Increase 6.31 13125 ----- 6.5 13520 395.2 6.6 13728 603.2 6.7 13936 811.2 6.8 14144 1019.2

Wage totals and increases at different minimum wage rates. £6.31 is the current rate. A rise to £6.50 assumes 3% inflation. I think the £6.60 rate would balance a decent rise in income for people while also being affordable for businesses.

I agree that sounds sensible but a promise to keep above inflation increases in the minimum wage whilst employment is continuing to rise would be a good idea too.

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

100K jobs a quarter sounds alot but still only means we'll be at 1.5m by the time of the next election, so I don't know whether we should be messing with the minimum wage just yet.

I'd prefer to see the NI lower earnings limit put up to at least £10k and if possible both the Personal Allowance and the NI lower limit raised even higher - perhaps to the level of someone working full time on the National Minimum Wage. These changes could be balanced by raising the tax rate on basic and higher earners, perhaps to 25%, so that the benefit is mainly felt by the lowest income workers and is neutral or only slightly beneficial to those on higher wages.

It would be interesting to see how a 'trickle up' economy works.

Even in his wildest dreams, not even tim thinks the Tories would do this. Raising the basic rate of tax to 25% would lose them the election overnight, regardless of how the allowance was raised elsewhere.

It would be the 10p tax disaster in reverse, just with a lot more losers.

Not to mention the knock on effect of small companies. There's a reason the corporation tax rate for small businesses is also 20%.

Mr. Ajob, that reminds me of the response that the Spartans sent to Philip II when he threatened to utterly destroy them if they did not submit:

"After invading Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, Philip II of Macedon sent a message to Sparta: "If I win this war, you will be slaves forever." In another version, he warned: "You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city." According to both accounts, the Spartan ephors replied with one word: "If" (αἴκα).[20] Subsequently both Philip and Alexander avoided Sparta entirely."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase

Another strike date announced

http://www.fbu.org.uk/?p=8270#more-8270

@CarlottaVance - I'm very disappointed in the SNP. I thought it was compulsory for any SNP press release to include the word 'bluster'.

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

Why? If the PA was raised at the same time so that their post tax income was the same or slightly higher then I don't think anyone would complain. The priority is to focus the limited amount of money on the poorest workers.

Just the headlines. "Osborne increases tax on everyone to pay for x". X = any kind of corporation tax break for investment, or anything really.

Insane idea. Better to just raise the tax free allowance and drag more people into the higher rate of tax. That's essentially a "free" way of doing it and there isn't much public sympathy for people earning £44k or higher right now.

On this particular occasion it will be the poor wot get the gravy while it will be the rich wot get the blame.

TGOHF said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Another strike date announced

http://www.fbu.org.uk/?p=8270#more-8270

The last one didn't seem to cause much disruption to be honest - and with everyone else not able to pick up a pension until 7 or 8 years later than the firemen, sympathy is scarce..

It's a bit of a technical strike campaign, to be honest, trying to not cause too much trouble to the general public, but maximising the problems for the Fire Authorities/government.

Actually had a lot of support on the picket line from the passing public-they start off ribbing us about retiring early, that sort of thing, but that gives us a chance to explain our case. Most are surprised that we pay over 12% into our pension pots, and about the fitness issues.

It's gonna be a long haul, no doubt.

Poor old Polly, she seems to think that schoolkids all study Jane Austen, George Orwell and Charles Dickens. If only!

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/05/gove-austen-orwell-dickens-die-out

TwistedFireStopper said:

Most are surprised that we pay over 12% into our pension pots

I think they'd be even more surprised at the difference between the pension you get for that contribution, and what people paying the same amount into a money-purchase scheme (i.e. most of the private sector) get.

RichardNabavi said:

@CarlottaVance - I'm very disappointed in the SNP. I thought it was compulsory for any SNP press release to include the word 'bluster'.

For brevity I edited possibly the most damning bit - which sadly does not contain 'bluster' either:

"London is still in charge of the Labour party in Scotland. 14 years of devolution hasn't changed that, Ms Lamont hasn’t changed that and it's clear that only a Yes vote will."

In fairness they did get in a dozen 'Scotland' or 'Scottish' and a couple of 'London's....

I would guess Alastair Darling is not entirely chuffed at the ammunition Ed has handed the SNP....as well as rebuffing his request....

RichardNabavi said:

Poor old Polly, she seems to think that schoolkids all study Jane Austen, George Orwell and Charles Dickens. If only!

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/05/gove-austen-orwell-dickens-die-out

I was not set a single work by any of those three when I was at school in the late 1970s/early 1980s. With the benefit of hindsight, I'm not sure that having to study Chaucer was particularly worthwhile.

Some unalloyed good news for once:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-congo-democratic-rebels-idUSBRE9A30PE20131105

@Tim

'So you're delighted to screw your kids generation over with house price inflation'

Translation:

Labour house price inflation good.Tory house price inflation evil.

Now this is a good move....


Tim Shipman (Mail)‏@ShippersUnbound10m
Is Len McCluskey in charge of Labour Uncut's web hosting? http://labour-uncut.co.uk/


Tim Shipman (Mail)‏@ShippersUnbound10m
Labour Uncut has disappeared altogether after criticising Miliband handling of Falkirk: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/ Whats going on? @LabourUncut?

Going to Labour Uncut you get a red hand, a cartoon aligator and a message saying "error 403 - forbidden"

Excellent way to shut down dissent!!

antifrank said:

RichardNabavi said:

Poor old Polly, she seems to think that schoolkids all study Jane Austen, George Orwell and Charles Dickens. If only!

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/05/gove-austen-orwell-dickens-die-out

I was not set a single work by any of those three when I was at school in the late 1970s/early 1980s. With the benefit of hindsight, I'm not sure that having to study Chaucer was particularly worthwhile.

The Miller's tale is possibly the greatest piece of literature ever written.

I'm so glad I studied Chaucer at school.

Not the first time red hot pokers were discussed at my school.