politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the

System · May 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the first post manifesto polling

CON spreads down 9 on @SportingIndex 383-390 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … … … … …& Spreadex 384-391 https://t.co/WTy5ixtSxJ … … … … … …

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JosiasJessop · May 2017

First.

It would be *so* hilarious if Corbyn gets a higher vote share than Miliband or Brown ...

The_Apocalypse · May 2017

Second.

IanB2 · May 2017

Third like SLab

Mike hedging his bets there with that last sentence.

DecrepitJohnL · May 2017

IanB2 said:
Third like SLab

Mike hedging his bets there with that last sentence.

As a prediction it is not quite up there with 50/1 Obama.

SimonStClare · May 2017

5th – and a lost deposit.

HaroldO · May 2017

I think everyone needs to calm the fuck down, the manifesto drops have happened so it's now hard campaigning until the election. I for one am waiting to see what happens.

MikeSmithson · May 2017

JosiasJessop said:
First.

It would be *so* hilarious if Corbyn gets a higher vote share than Miliband or Brown ...

Why? The political environment has totally changed with the collapse of UKIP. You can take the numbers from the last two elections as base lines.

LAB can exceed GE2015 by many points. What matters is the gap behind CON and how many seats.

HYUFD · May 2017

JosiasJessop said:
First.

It would be *so* hilarious if Corbyn gets a higher vote share than Miliband or Brown ...

May is getting a higher voteshare than Thatcher, Major and Cameron, as OGH says both main parties are squeezing the LDs and especially UKIP and making it largely a 2 horse race outside Scotland

IanB2 · May 2017

MikeSmithson said:

JosiasJessop said:
First.

It would be *so* hilarious if Corbyn gets a higher vote share than Miliband or Brown ...
Why? The political environment has totally changed with the collapse of UKIP. You can take the numbers from the last two elections as base lines.

LAB can exceed GE2015 by many points. What matters is the gap behind CON and how many seats.

Except that Labour has tested its floor now in three elections under Foot, Brown and Miliband. The consensus (and indeed near unanimity) on this site when the campaign begun was that Corbyn would breach that floor. Right now he looks a few points above it, which is remarkable, even assuming he still goes on to lose.

Beverley_C · May 2017

FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.

Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"

nunu · May 2017

There has been a swing TO Labour since the start of the GE campaign: May is crap.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866289408286314496

AndyJS · May 2017

nunu said:
There has been a swing TO Labour since the start of the GE campaign: May is crap.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866289408286314496

And the Tories are still heading for a 100 seat majority according to the spread betting markets and most of the experts.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

JosiasJessop said:
First.

It would be *so* hilarious if Corbyn gets a higher vote share than Miliband or Brown ...

No it wouldn't, because we would never get rid of the f##king terrorist sympathizer and his band of communists, Marxists, antisemites and holocaust deniers.

MaxPB · May 2017

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...

They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.

SandyRentool · May 2017

nunu said:
There has been a swing TO Labour since the start of the GE campaign: May is crap.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866289408286314496

There is only one party with momentum* on that graph.

*Pun intended.

SandyRentool · May 2017

SandyRentool said:

nunu said:
There has been a swing TO Labour since the start of the GE campaign: May is crap.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866289408286314496
There is only one party with momentum* on that graph.

*Pun intended.

Oh, and how come Labour has 29 data points above the trend line and only 12 below? Including 7 of the last 8.

MarkHopkins · May 2017

SandyRentool said:

nunu said:
There has been a swing TO Labour since the start of the GE campaign: May is crap.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866289408286314496
There is only one party with momentum* on that graph.

*Pun intended.

UKIP...

SimonStClare · May 2017

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
I think you're right, but I think you're over-estimating the intelligence of the Tory team, especially the small coterie around TMay, and TMay herself. They are, it turns out, crap. Just complete crap.

The campaign should be taken away from them and given to Dominic Cummings, Lynton Crosby, bloody Peter Mandelson, anyone, but it won't, because they are arrogant cretins.

I expect TMay to win, but I very much doubt she will get a landslide, so it might feel a bit like a defeat. She will then enact her loathsome nannying policies, God help us, and she will then try and negotiate Brexit having proved she is a halfwit, and about as agile and cunning as a salted slug.

Fantastic.

Deep breaths SeanT, you’re beginning to hyperventilate again.

Sean_F · May 2017

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
I think you're right, but I think you're over-estimating the intelligence of the Tory team, especially the small coterie around TMay, and TMay herself. They are, it turns out, crap. Just complete crap.

The campaign should be taken away from them and given to Dominic Cummings, Lynton Crosby, bloody Peter Mandelson, anyone, but it won't, because they are arrogant cretins.

I expect TMay to win, but I very much doubt she will get a landslide, so it might feel a bit like a defeat. She will then enact her loathsome nannying policies, God help us, and she will then try and negotiate Brexit having proved she is a halfwit, and about as agile and cunning as a salted slug.

Fantastic.

Calm down dear, Maggie would have been happy with these leads during her election campaigns.

MaxPB · May 2017

SeanT said:
I think you're right, but I think you're over-estimating the intelligence of the Tory team, especially the small coterie around TMay, and TMay herself. They are, it turns out, crap. Just complete crap.

The campaign should be taken away from them and given to Dominic Cummings, Lynton Crosby, bloody Peter Mandelson, anyone, but it won't, because they are arrogant cretins.

I expect TMay to win, but I very much doubt she will get a landslide, so it might feel a bit like a defeat. She will then enact her loathsome nannying policies, God help us, and she will then try and negotiate Brexit having proved she is a halfwit, and about as agile and cunning as a salted slug.

Fantastic.

I still don't understand what possessed these idiots when they thought moving on from the winning line "Theresa is Mrs Brexit" to an untested one which involves confiscation of property at some level (rightly or wrongly). I'm literally left scratching my head at the moment.

MarkHopkins · May 2017

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
See here: they are refusing to U-turn (and I can see why, it would look so bad, though I agree with you they should do it anyway)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39990986

The damage is done.

"they are refusing to U-turn"

You might say they were being, er, strong and stable?

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"

You do know that the system has always been you pay for care if you have more than £23,250 in assets.
Presently pensioners lose their homes and I have seen the anguish this causes.

I really do not think people have thought about this problem and are suddenly waking up to the cost of care. In many cases care is not involved and so the property will pass on to the children tax free upto a million but less if labour get in who will charge IHT at 40% over £425,000

May has addressed this issue by ensuring people will not have their home sold while they are alive and increased the exempt amount from £23,250 to £100,000. Labour have no plans so the existing system will continue unamended for goodness knows how long frightening many and leaving just £23,250.

The you gov poll shows the most objections are labour supporters who clearly want to see the young shoulder an increase in tax of upto 5% to defray the enormous annual costs so the wealthy can hand down money to their children.

MaxPB · May 2017

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
See here: they are refusing to U-turn (and I can see why, it would look so bad, though I agree with you they should do it anyway)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39990986

The damage is done.

But then Boris popped up a little later saying they would consult further. It could be a case of the policy being changed while Green was live on TV, it happened when they U-turned over the NI rise for self-employed people.

Charles · May 2017

@SeanT

Calm down sweetie. It's s lovely day. Go for a walk in Primrose Hill or something. You're getting too worked up

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

Footie is interesting

timmo · May 2017

Im hearing there will probably be a statement from CCHQ on the Social care poljcy later today...!!

YBarddCwsc · May 2017

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"

What do you like is life in a care home with no money?

If you need a wheelchair, you’ll get a basic wheelchair. But, if you need a comfortable wheelchair that is adapted to your specialist needs, you will have to pay for it.

If you need any kind of dental treatment beyond the bare minimum, you will have to pay for it.

If you want to have your hair done, you will have to pay for it.

If you wish to join an organised trip out to break the monotony of your day, you will have to pay for it.

Life in care home with no money is very unpleasant.

As the demand continues to increase, life in the care home with the Council paying you fees is going to get grimmer. You will get a basic kind of life, propped up in front of the telly in the care home lounge. But that is all you’ll get.

The system is falling to bits. It needs more money. If more and more people game the system by giving all their money to their heirs, then the care system will collapse.

If you want to arrive at your care home penniless, that is up to you. But, make no mistake, it is going to be grim.

MarkSenior · May 2017

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
See here: they are refusing to U-turn (and I can see why, it would look so bad, though I agree with you they should do it anyway)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39990986

The damage is done.

"they are refusing to U-turn"

You might say they were being, er, strong and stable?

Stubborn and Foolish ??

Luckyguy1983 · May 2017

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:
I think you're right, but I think you're over-estimating the intelligence of the Tory team, especially the small coterie around TMay, and TMay herself. They are, it turns out, crap. Just complete crap.

The campaign should be taken away from them and given to Dominic Cummings, Lynton Crosby, bloody Peter Mandelson, anyone, but it won't, because they are arrogant cretins.

I expect TMay to win, but I very much doubt she will get a landslide, so it might feel a bit like a defeat. She will then enact her loathsome nannying policies, God help us, and she will then try and negotiate Brexit having proved she is a halfwit, and about as agile and cunning as a salted slug.

Fantastic.
I still don't understand what possessed these idiots when they thought moving on from the winning line "Theresa is Mrs Brexit" to an untested one which involves confiscation of property at some level (rightly or wrongly). I'm literally left scratching my head at the moment.
I can't think of a bigger unforced error in terms of manifesto proposals - ever. I can think of larger political gaffes - "bigoted woman", I can think of more hilarious campaign cock-ups - EdStone.

But I can't, offhand, think of a stupider policy mistake, written down in black and white. And it was entirely unnecessary. There was no clamour for clarity on this issue.

As you say: bewilderingly dim.

What is the problem. It seems like a fair and just way of dealing with it to me.

calum · May 2017

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:
I think you're right, but I think you're over-estimating the intelligence of the Tory team, especially the small coterie around TMay, and TMay herself. They are, it turns out, crap. Just complete crap.

The campaign should be taken away from them and given to Dominic Cummings, Lynton Crosby, bloody Peter Mandelson, anyone, but it won't, because they are arrogant cretins.

I expect TMay to win, but I very much doubt she will get a landslide, so it might feel a bit like a defeat. She will then enact her loathsome nannying policies, God help us, and she will then try and negotiate Brexit having proved she is a halfwit, and about as agile and cunning as a salted slug.

Fantastic.
I still don't understand what possessed these idiots when they thought moving on from the winning line "Theresa is Mrs Brexit" to an untested one which involves confiscation of property at some level (rightly or wrongly). I'm literally left scratching my head at the moment.

TM the house snatcher etc etc

IanB2 · May 2017

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
I think you're right, but I think you're over-estimating the intelligence of the Tory team, especially the small coterie around TMay, and TMay herself. They are, it turns out, crap. Just complete crap. They won't have the wit to change.

The campaign should be taken away from them and given to Dominic Cummings, Lynton Crosby, bloody Peter Mandelson, anyone, but it won't, because they are arrogant cretins.

I expect TMay to win, but I very much doubt she will get a landslide, so it might feel a bit like a defeat. She will then enact her loathsome nannying policies, God help us, and she will then try and negotiate Brexit having proved she is a halfwit, and about as agile and cunning as a salted slug.

Fantastic.

These would be the loathsome policies you have already voted for? Is this really going to be like Brexit where you fill the threads telling us why you've done the wrong thing again?

You would have been better hanging onto your vote and posting it at the last minute.

Sandpit · May 2017

Arsenal a goal to the good but looking at 75 minutes with ten men.

nunu · May 2017

timmo said:
Im hearing there will probably be a statement from CCHQ on the Social care poljcy later today...!!

U-turn incoming....

timmo · May 2017

MarkSenior said:

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
See here: they are refusing to U-turn (and I can see why, it would look so bad, though I agree with you they should do it anyway)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39990986

The damage is done.

"they are refusing to U-turn"

You might say they were being, er, strong and stable?

Stubborn and Foolish ??

Its not a u turn thats needed its a ckarification of the current policy vs the proposed new one.
On the doorstep this morning most people did not have a clue as to the current situation. What they have done is make people think abt this..why goodness only knows.

rottenborough · May 2017

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:
I think you're right, but I think you're over-estimating the intelligence of the Tory team, especially the small coterie around TMay, and TMay herself. They are, it turns out, crap. Just complete crap.

The campaign should be taken away from them and given to Dominic Cummings, Lynton Crosby, bloody Peter Mandelson, anyone, but it won't, because they are arrogant cretins.

I expect TMay to win, but I very much doubt she will get a landslide, so it might feel a bit like a defeat. She will then enact her loathsome nannying policies, God help us, and she will then try and negotiate Brexit having proved she is a halfwit, and about as agile and cunning as a salted slug.

Fantastic.
I still don't understand what possessed these idiots when they thought moving on from the winning line "Theresa is Mrs Brexit" to an untested one which involves confiscation of property at some level (rightly or wrongly). I'm literally left scratching my head at the moment.
I can't think of a bigger unforced error in terms of manifesto proposals - ever. I can think of larger political gaffes - "bigoted woman", I can think of more hilarious campaign cock-ups - EdStone.

But I can't, offhand, think of a stupider policy mistake, written down in black and white. And it was entirely unnecessary. There was no clamour for clarity on this issue.

As you say: bewilderingly dim.
What is the problem. It seems like a fair and just way of dealing with it to me.

Actually there was general background noise that social care is a mess and needs resources, so not come out of the blue.

Did they focus group this particular form of solution though?

rottenborough · May 2017

timmo said:
Im hearing there will probably be a statement from CCHQ on the Social care poljcy later today...!!

Incoming u-turn alert.

Sandpit · May 2017

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
See here: they are refusing to U-turn (and I can see why, it would look so bad, though I agree with you they should do it anyway)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39990986

The damage is done.

"they are refusing to U-turn"

You might say they were being, er, strong and stable?

Stubborn and Foolish ??
Its not a u turn thats needed its a ckarification of the current policy vs the proposed new one.
On the doorstep this morning most people did not have a clue as to the current situation. What they have done is make people think abt this..why goodness only knows.

Yep. People are now at least talking about it, and slowly realising that what's proposed is better than the current situation.

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

Lucky scousers - Boro denied a penalty....

Liverpool = TMAY (as far as PB Tory wobbly bottoms concerned?)

Beverley_C · May 2017

YBarddCwsc said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
What do you like is life in a care home with no money?

If you need a wheelchair, you’ll get a basic wheelchair. But, if you need a comfortable wheelchair that is adapted to your specialist needs, you will have to pay for it.

If you need any kind of dental treatment beyond the bare minimum, you will have to pay for it.

If you want to have your hair done, you will have to pay for it.

If you wish to join an organised trip out to break the monotony of your day, you will have to pay for it.

Life in care home with no money is very unpleasant.

As the demand continues to increase, life in the care home with the Council paying you fees is going to get grimmer. You will get a basic kind of life, propped up in front of the telly in the care home lounge. But that is all you’ll get.

The system is falling to bits. It needs more money. If more and more people game the system by giving all their money to their heirs, then the care system will collapse.

If you want to arrive at your care home penniless, that is up to you. But, make no mistake, it is going to be grim.

So, if I save like mad and give all but £100K to them I will be in a private care home, supplied with champagne and living it up?

What I expect is that I will get the basics like you describe and they will take all my savings anyway

ab195 · May 2017

I bet the likes of Benn are kicking themselves. They might not have beaten Corbyn but they'd have had more chance than Smith, and there's a mile of space for a centre left, strong on national security, EFTA style Brexit, offering. If they'd got through, they could be really challenging right now. A slightly softer version of the Corbyn platform, with no IRA past or pacifism (yes, there's a contradiction) and who knows... There again I suppose she never would have called the election and would have limped in to 2020 losing EU votes along the way.

However May will win with a 50-100 majority and Labour will have to reinvent New Labour for 2022. The key question will be whether they advocate rejoining the single market/customs union and whether, by then, that involves dumping popular policies we can only implement outside of it.

timmo · May 2017

nunu said:

timmo said:
Im hearing there will probably be a statement from CCHQ on the Social care poljcy later today...!!
U-turn incoming....

No clarification only

MaxPB · May 2017

timmo said:

nunu said:

timmo said:
Im hearing there will probably be a statement from CCHQ on the Social care poljcy later today...!!
U-turn incoming....
No clarification only

Clarification of policy is just another way of saying U-turn. They'll dress it up as something else but it will dump the controversial parts at least until 2022.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate

IanB2 · May 2017

timmo said:

nunu said:

timmo said:
Im hearing there will probably be a statement from CCHQ on the Social care poljcy later today...!!
U-turn incoming....
No clarification only

They can't u-turn on a manifesto, they would look utterly ridiculous. Some cutting and trimming is the most we can expect, or possibly more detail such as how WFA will be means tested.

timmo · May 2017

MaxPB said:

timmo said:

nunu said:

timmo said:
Im hearing there will probably be a statement from CCHQ on the Social care poljcy later today...!!
U-turn incoming....
No clarification only
Clarification of policy is just another way of saying U-turn. They'll dress it up as something else but it will dump the controversial parts at least until 2022.

So they are controversially making things better?

Beverley_C · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
You do know that the system has always been you pay for care if you have more than £23,250 in assets.
Presently pensioners lose their homes and I have seen the anguish this causes.

I really do not think people have thought about this problem and are suddenly waking up to the cost of care. In many cases care is not involved and so the property will pass on to the children tax free upto a million but less if labour get in who will charge IHT at 40% over £425,000

May has addressed this issue by ensuring people will not have their home sold while they are alive and increased the exempt amount from £23,250 to £100,000. Labour have no plans so the existing system will continue unamended for goodness knows how long frightening many and leaving just £23,250.

The you gov poll shows the most objections are labour supporters who clearly want to see the young shoulder an increase in tax of upto 5% to defray the enormous annual costs so the wealthy can hand down money to their children.

I will not argue with you, but assuming that what you say is correct, then the presentation of this so near to voting day is an utter disaster and it makes me wonder about their judgement.

How hard would it have been to present this as a four-fold increase in the existing limits to help people hang on to their homes and savings? Just a one-line mention and bury it somewhere in the manifesto?

Now they have a shambles two weeks before the election. Not exactly stunning judgement is it?

Scott_P · May 2017

Doesn't look like a u-turn yet

https://twitter.com/conservatives/status/866261371922546688

IanB2 · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate

I thought both opposition parties were signed up to progressing the Dilnot reforms and the LibDems at least have a credible funding source by earmarking a slice of the extra income tax take for social care.

YBarddCwsc · May 2017

Beverley_C said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
What do you like is life in a care home with no money?

If you need a wheelchair, you’ll get a basic wheelchair. But, if you need a comfortable wheelchair that is adapted to your specialist needs, you will have to pay for it.

If you need any kind of dental treatment beyond the bare minimum, you will have to pay for it.

If you want to have your hair done, you will have to pay for it.

If you wish to join an organised trip out to break the monotony of your day, you will have to pay for it.

Life in care home with no money is very unpleasant.

As the demand continues to increase, life in the care home with the Council paying you fees is going to get grimmer. You will get a basic kind of life, propped up in front of the telly in the care home lounge. But that is all you’ll get.

The system is falling to bits. It needs more money. If more and more people game the system by giving all their money to their heirs, then the care system will collapse.

If you want to arrive at your care home penniless, that is up to you. But, make no mistake, it is going to be grim.
So, if I save like mad and give all but £100K to them I will be in a private care home, supplied with champagne and living it up?

What I expect is that I will get the basics like you describe and they will take all my savings anyway

I think if you are unable to walk because of advanced dementia, then being able to afford a comfortable wheelchair is not “champagne and living it up”

Your flippant answer suggests you have never been in a residential care home in your life.

calum · May 2017

Our version of Tim !

https://twitter.com/scotlibdems/status/866300783201071104

Beverley_C · May 2017

YBarddCwsc said:

Your flippant answer suggests you have never been in a residential care home in your life.

Actually, I support two residential care homes as part of my current business, and I do visit them as part of organising their support systems.

IanB2 · May 2017

ab195 said:
(snip)... and Labour will have to reinvent New Labour for 2022.

You make it sound so easy...

Clown_Car_HQ · May 2017

YBarddCwsc said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
What do you like is life in a care home with no money?

If you need a wheelchair, you’ll get a basic wheelchair. But, if you need a comfortable wheelchair that is adapted to your specialist needs, you will have to pay for it.

If you need any kind of dental treatment beyond the bare minimum, you will have to pay for it.

If you want to have your hair done, you will have to pay for it.

If you wish to join an organised trip out to break the monotony of your day, you will have to pay for it.

Life in care home with no money is very unpleasant.

As the demand continues to increase, life in the care home with the Council paying you fees is going to get grimmer. You will get a basic kind of life, propped up in front of the telly in the care home lounge. But that is all you’ll get.

The system is falling to bits. It needs more money. If more and more people game the system by giving all their money to their heirs, then the care system will collapse.

If you want to arrive at your care home penniless, that is up to you. But, make no mistake, it is going to be grim.

Absolutely, and you will have very little choice about where you would be placed. I visited all the care homes in my area when I was looking for a place for my father. One was so awful I sat in the car and cried after visiting it. I got in touch with the council to complain and asked when they had last visited the place. All the best homes had a high proportion of self-funders and had very few local authority funded residents. If you would be happy for a family member to take the worst that is on offer, go ahead and encourage them to sell-up, give the money away and throw themselves on the mercy of local authority funding.

Local authorities are under no obligation to let you choose where to go. Many homes have fees above their threshold for funding. Your option then would be to sign up to an open-ended commitment to paying top-up fees which have to be paid by the resident or their families.

I find the attitudes of some on this site astonishing.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate
I thought both opposition parties were signed up to progressing the Dilnot reforms and the LibDems at least have a credible funding source by earmarking a slice of the extra income tax take for social care.

Dilnot is unaffordable and the 1% Lib Dem tax will not even touch it. It is interesting that not one insurance comlany has been able to come up with a policy solution and most think a tax of 5% is needed to allow everyone to keep their property wealth to hand down to their children, and that is simply unacceptable

MarqueeMark · May 2017

IanB2 said:

timmo said:

nunu said:

timmo said:
Im hearing there will probably be a statement from CCHQ on the Social care poljcy later today...!!
U-turn incoming....
No clarification only
They can't u-turn on a manifesto

Labour's "rolling manifesto"? Maybe CCHQ are nicking their idea?

AndyJS · May 2017

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"

What nonsense. Many people are reduced to £23k at the moment and that's going to increase to £100k, thankfully.

bobajobPB · May 2017

Shame Boro didn't get the pen, but still a chance for Liverpool to cock this up as Everton try their best to lose. Remarkably entertaining, this race for third loser.

MarqueeMark · May 2017

"Champions League? You're 'avin' a larf!"

Boro chant to Liverpool.....

YBarddCwsc · May 2017

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate
I thought both opposition parties were signed up to progressing the Dilnot reforms and the LibDems at least have a credible funding source by earmarking a slice of the extra income tax take for social care.

The Lib Dems have pointed out that taxes will have to rise. However, if you do the sums, they will have to rise by more than 1p for Social Care alone.

I think the LibDems are suggesting 1p for both the NHS & Social Care.

It seems to be a topic on which politicians & the general public collude in their dishonesty !

timmo · May 2017

Clown_Car_HQ said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
What do you like is life in a care home with no money?

If you need a wheelchair, you’ll get a basic wheelchair. But, if you need a comfortable wheelchair that is adapted to your specialist needs, you will have to pay for it.

If you need any kind of dental treatment beyond the bare minimum, you will have to pay for it.

If you want to have your hair done, you will have to pay for it.

If you wish to join an organised trip out to break the monotony of your day, you will have to pay for it.

Life in care home with no money is very unpleasant.

As the demand continues to increase, life in the care home with the Council paying you fees is going to get grimmer. You will get a basic kind of life, propped up in front of the telly in the care home lounge. But that is all you’ll get.

The system is falling to bits. It needs more money. If more and more people game the system by giving all their money to their heirs, then the care system will collapse.

If you want to arrive at your care home penniless, that is up to you. But, make no mistake, it is going to be grim.
Absolutely, and you will have very little choice about where you would be placed. I visited all the care homes in my area when I was looking for a place for my father. One was so awful I sat in the car and cried after visiting it. I got in touch with the council to complain and asked when they had last visited the place. All the best homes had a high proportion of self-funders and had very few local authority funded residents. If you would be happy for a family member to take the worst that is on offer, go ahead and encourage them to sell-up, give the money away and throw themselves on the mercy of local authority funding.

Local authorities are under no obligation to let you choose where to go. Many homes have fees above their threshold for funding. Your option then would be to sign up to an open-ended commitment to paying top-up fees which have to be paid by the resident or their families.

I find the attitudes of some on this site astonishing.

A very good post that points out the reality of care home provisuon

welshowl · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate

I thought their position was that now but also accepting Dilnot post 2020 which capped payments at 73k?

IanB2 · May 2017

Clown_Car_HQ said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
What do you like is life in a care home with no money?

If you need a wheelchair, you’ll get a basic wheelchair. But, if you need a comfortable wheelchair that is adapted to your specialist needs, you will have to pay for it.

If you need any kind of dental treatment beyond the bare minimum, you will have to pay for it.

If you want to have your hair done, you will have to pay for it.

If you wish to join an organised trip out to break the monotony of your day, you will have to pay for it.

Life in care home with no money is very unpleasant.

As the demand continues to increase, life in the care home with the Council paying you fees is going to get grimmer. You will get a basic kind of life, propped up in front of the telly in the care home lounge. But that is all you’ll get.

The system is falling to bits. It needs more money. If more and more people game the system by giving all their money to their heirs, then the care system will collapse.

If you want to arrive at your care home penniless, that is up to you. But, make no mistake, it is going to be grim.
Absolutely, and you will have very little choice about where you would be placed. I visited all the care homes in my area when I was looking for a place for my father. One was so awful I sat in the car and cried after visiting it. I got in touch with the council to complain and asked when they had last visited the place. All the best homes had a high proportion of self-funders and had very few local authority funded residents. If you would be happy for a family member to take the worst that is on offer, go ahead and encourage them to sell-up, give the money away and throw themselves on the mercy of local authority funding.

Local authorities are under no obligation to let you choose where to go. Many homes have fees above their threshold for funding. Your option then would be to sign up to an open-ended commitment to paying top-up fees which have to be paid by the resident or their families.

I find the attitudes of some on this site astonishing.

And, as we discussed in detail yesterday, if you are too overt about passing the property and savings to the next generation to avoid the costs of care, you run the risk of the council coming for the money anyway, since the law already has this loophole close off, at least in theory.

YBarddCwsc · May 2017

Clown_Car_HQ said:

I find the attitudes of some on this site astonishing.

I agree with that. It is very clear that many people have no idea what happens now.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
You do know that the system has always been you pay for care if you have more than £23,250 in assets.
Presently pensioners lose their homes and I have seen the anguish this causes.

I really do not think people have thought about this problem and are suddenly waking up to the cost of care. In many cases care is not involved and so the property will pass on to the children tax free upto a million but less if labour get in who will charge IHT at 40% over £425,000

May has addressed this issue by ensuring people will not have their home sold while they are alive and increased the exempt amount from £23,250 to £100,000. Labour have no plans so the existing system will continue unamended for goodness knows how long frightening many and leaving just £23,250.

The you gov poll shows the most objections are labour supporters who clearly want to see the young shoulder an increase in tax of upto 5% to defray the enormous annual costs so the wealthy can hand down money to their children.

I will not argue with you, but assuming that what you say is correct, then the presentation of this so near to voting day is an utter disaster and it makes me wonder about their judgement.

How hard would it have been to present this as a four-fold increase in the existing limits to help people hang on to their homes and savings? Just a one-line mention and bury it somewhere in the manifesto?

Now they have a shambles two weeks before the election. Not exactly stunning judgement is it?

I do not disagree but do you accept my argument that May has improved the system.
I do have knowledge in this field as prior to retiring I saw the devastation caused to old people losing their homes and Councils pocketing all their home proceeds but for a mere £23,250.

It was and is shameful and that will be stopped now

ab195 · May 2017

IanB2 said:

ab195 said:
(snip)... and Labour will have to reinvent New Labour for 2022.
You make it sound so easy...

IDS to Cameron was three years - nothing motivates like a ministerial car.

rottenborough · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
You do know that the system has always been you pay for care if you have more than £23,250 in assets.
Presently pensioners lose their homes and I have seen the anguish this causes.

I really do not think people have thought about this problem and are suddenly waking up to the cost of care. In many cases care is not involved and so the property will pass on to the children tax free upto a million but less if labour get in who will charge IHT at 40% over £425,000

May has addressed this issue by ensuring people will not have their home sold while they are alive and increased the exempt amount from £23,250 to £100,000. Labour have no plans so the existing system will continue unamended for goodness knows how long frightening many and leaving just £23,250.

The you gov poll shows the most objections are labour supporters who clearly want to see the young shoulder an increase in tax of upto 5% to defray the enormous annual costs so the wealthy can hand down money to their children.

I will not argue with you, but assuming that what you say is correct, then the presentation of this so near to voting day is an utter disaster and it makes me wonder about their judgement.

How hard would it have been to present this as a four-fold increase in the existing limits to help people hang on to their homes and savings? Just a one-line mention and bury it somewhere in the manifesto?

Now they have a shambles two weeks before the election. Not exactly stunning judgement is it?
I do not disagree but do you accept my argument that May has improved the system.
I do have knowledge in this field as prior to retiring I saw the devastation caused to old people losing their homes and Councils pocketing all their home proceeds but for a mere £23,250.

It was and is shameful and that will be stopped now

If the policy actually lasts the rest of the day...

Clown_Car_HQ · May 2017

welshowl said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate
I thought their position was that now but also accepting Dilnot post 2020 which capped payments at 73k?

The £72k cap is not what it seems.

Reposting this link for anyone who missed it and is interested to know more about current care funding policy.

https://www.saga.co.uk/money/care-funding-advice/what-you-need-to-know-about-care-home-fees

Alistair · May 2017

Another last second win for Scotland. England Scotland for the final.

LadyBucket · May 2017

I've just taken my slow-roasted lamb out of the oven, so now catching up with news, although I promised myself a day off from politics today. But it's difficult, because there is just so much at stake in this election.

I thought Boris Johnson did better than I thought. He seems to have got the better of Peston's constant interruptions. His hair is a great distraction and he needs to get rid of the ruffled schoolboy look, if he is ever to be taken seriously.

Why they keep using Damian Green, is a mystery. He is such a poor hesitant speaker and no match for the thuggish John McDonnell.

I'm surprised the conservatives haven't gone for McDonnell and Seamus Milne more, given his alleged 'suspect' connections!!!!

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

welshowl said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate
I thought their position was that now but also accepting Dilnot post 2020 which capped payments at 73k?

Not affordable - cost of billions - £73,000 will not even cover two years fees

JackW · May 2017

Mike :

Might I implore you, for the sake of PB Tory bed wetters, to place a link on the side bar to the Samaritans.

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

JackW said:
Mike :

Might I implore you, for the sake of PB Tory bed wetters, to place a link on the side bar to the Samaritans.

and pampers

timmo · May 2017

Clown_Car_HQ said:

welshowl said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate
I thought their position was that now but also accepting Dilnot post 2020 which capped payments at 73k?
The £72k cap is not what it seems.

Reposting this link for anyone who missed it and is interested to know more about current care funding policy.

https://www.saga.co.uk/money/care-funding-advice/what-you-need-to-know-about-care-home-fees

That was a proposed cao for 2020

welshowl · May 2017

Clown_Car_HQ said:

welshowl said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate
I thought their position was that now but also accepting Dilnot post 2020 which capped payments at 73k?
The £72k cap is not what it seems.

Reposting this link for anyone who missed it and is interested to know more about current care funding policy.

https://www.saga.co.uk/money/care-funding-advice/what-you-need-to-know-about-care-home-fees

Thanks good link. 72k is a misnomer then more like twice that in reality? However, what a technical knotty subject- hence brainless to raise it three weeks before an election when there was no need to and at the same time you're amending triple locks (rightly) and making a hash of not explaining who won't lose out from charging (again in principle rightly) WFA.

Yorkcity · May 2017

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"

Very true that is what my father keeps saying.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

I might just add that for those with property over £425,000 McDonnell's IHT at 40% is likely in most cases to take more from the children than social care which someone may or may not need. IHT will be on everyone's estate

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

Yorkcity said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
Very true that is what my father keeps saying.

Was ever thus...... unless one takes financial advice [cough]

CarlottaVance · May 2017

JackW said:
Mike :

Might I implore you, for the sake of PB Tory bed wetters, to place a link on the side bar to the Samaritans.

Or Dignitas......

CarlottaVance · May 2017

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/866272663790071808

Sean_F · May 2017

Yorkcity said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
Very true that is what my father keeps saying.

Because life would be shit for you in your final years.

Nigelb · May 2017

Scott_P said:
Doesn't look like a u-turn yet

https://twitter.com/conservatives/status/866261371922546688

And what percentage by the dementia tax/charge ?
The attack is incoherent - whatever you think of the relative merits of the two policies.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

Yorkcity said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
Very true that is what my father keeps saying.

You clearly do not know how it happens at present then

welshowl · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

welshowl said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate
I thought their position was that now but also accepting Dilnot post 2020 which capped payments at 73k?
Not affordable - cost of billions - £73,000 will not even cover two years fees

I can see that. It's the timing of taking the pin out of the grenade just after you've put it in your mouth, rather than safely waiting till you had put it at the far end of the firing range, nowhere near you, and you were in the bunker marked June 9th.

Crosby must be having kittens.

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Matt Singh:

The Conservatives are making strong gains in England’s rust belt, the areas that lost much of their industry during Margaret Thatcher’s governments in the 1980s.

An analysis of the local election results earlier this month also shows the Tories gaining the most ground, compared with the other parties, in the parts of England that still have the highest percentage of manufacturing workers.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2947652-3c80-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

welshowl said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

welshowl said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The way it works today is cruel and May's proposals are fair though some thought could be given to long term dementia care relief

If nothing else this has opened a debate to which TM has had the courage to address and Corbyn and Farron have no answer but to continue the present system of cruelty and taking away all but £23,250 of a persons estate
I thought their position was that now but also accepting Dilnot post 2020 which capped payments at 73k?
Not affordable - cost of billions - £73,000 will not even cover two years fees
I can see that. It's the timing of taking the pin out of the grenade just after you've put it in your mouth, rather than safely waiting till you had put it at the far end of the firing range, nowhere near you, and you were in the bunker marked June 9th.

Crosby must be having kittens.

Courageous but at least honest

isam · May 2017

SandyRentool said:

nunu said:
There has been a swing TO Labour since the start of the GE campaign: May is crap.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866289408286314496
There is only one party with momentum* on that graph.

*Pun intended.

I got a text message today...

"Hi Linda, this is Pete from Momentum. Hope you don't mind me contacting you. This Monday May 22 is voter reg deadline. Can you commit to registering 5 people to vote?"

With a link to a gov.uk website

Who's Linda???

Sean_F · May 2017

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
I think is a halfwit, and about as agile and cunning as a salted slug.

Fantastic.
Calm down dear, Maggie would have been happy with these leads during her election campaigns.
She ain't no Maggie. You can't be happy with that manifesto. Racial pay audit? Really???

Puke.

The racial pay audit is stupidity, agreed. But, May is greatly preferable to her opponents.

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Another view:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/866307731115974656

calum · May 2017

https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/866277984398958594

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

It seems the most anger about social care comes from a complete lack of knowledge of what happens now and for the foreseable future if TM does not implement her changes.

Labour and Lib Dems have no answer at all

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2017

More opinion polls, Mike! More!

Jason · May 2017

Scrapheap_as_was said:

JackW said:
Mike :

Might I implore you, for the sake of PB Tory bed wetters, to place a link on the side bar to the Samaritans.
and pampers

Lol, nicely put. Hysteria MK I I begins.

Sandpit · May 2017

isam said:

SandyRentool said:

nunu said:
There has been a swing TO Labour since the start of the GE campaign: May is crap.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866289408286314496
There is only one party with momentum* on that graph.

*Pun intended.
I got a text message today...

"Hi Linda, this is Pete from Momentum. Hope you don't mind me contacting you. This Monday May 22 is voter reg deadline. Can you commit to registering 5 people to vote?"

With a link to a gov.uk website

Who's Linda???

LOL, maybe someone signed you up to Momentum.

It is worth mentioning the serious point though, to all of us who are visiting friends and family today, remind them that the voter registration deadline is tomorrow.

No matter which party we support, we should all agree that a high turnout is good for democracy.

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

I see the latest Facebook propaganda from Labour is a mocked up simple balance sheet showing that their figures not only add up, but they have billions in headroom just in case somethings come in a bit more expensive.

Chris · May 2017

welshowl said:

I can see that. It's the timing of taking the pin out of the grenade just after you've put it in your mouth, rather than safely waiting till you had put it at the far end of the firing range, nowhere near you, and you were in the bunker marked June 9th.

It certainly adds a frisson of excitement to the "Trust Theresa May as a safe pair of hands to safeguard Britain's future" narrative.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
I see the latest Facebook propaganda from Labour is that their figures not only add up, but they have billions in headroom just in case somethings come in a bit more expensive.

No problem - put corporation tax up to 30%

welshowl · May 2017

Chris said:

welshowl said:

I can see that. It's the timing of taking the pin out of the grenade just after you've put it in your mouth, rather than safely waiting till you had put it at the far end of the firing range, nowhere near you, and you were in the bunker marked June 9th.
It certainly adds a frisson of excitement to the "Trust Theresa May as a safe pair of hands to safeguard Britain's future" narrative.

Indeed. However, the alternative is JC of Islington.

Yorkcity · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
Very true that is what my father keeps saying.
You clearly do not know how it happens at present then

I do, do not judge me ,my mother in law has severe dementia .She does not know who my wife is.She does not know her son died in February or her son died last month.

Yorkcity · May 2017

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Beverley_C said:
FPT:

SeanT said:

Beverley_C said:

Jason said:

I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
Exactly. The Labour party needs to send out those Single Market, very Soft Brexit signals. Dog whistle the liberal Remoaners.

Then they could, remarkably, win.
Yes. I think it is possible. This must be the most regressive tax in living memory and it begs the question "Why save any money? Why not just spend it and arrive at pensionhood penniless?"
Very true that is what my father keeps saying.
You clearly do not know how it happens at present then
I do, do not judge me ,my mother in law has severe dementia .She does not know who my wife is.She does not know her son died in February or her son died last month.

Apologies brother died last month.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2017

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

chestnut said:

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/866273888480763905
Swingback to Lab, I guess.
Perhaps a swing to Labour since 2015?
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.

You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.

Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?

No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
They won't be actual U-turns but clarifications of existing policies or announcing royal commissions to kick them into the long grass and having a very high threshold for the means test for WFA plus exemption based on climate data for the North. Together it will be enough to reversethe poll decline but just about hold onto strong and stable, but also move the narrative on from this stuff back to Brexit where they are on much safer ground.
See here: they are refusing to U-turn (and I can see why, it would look so bad, though I agree with you they should do it anyway)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39990986

The damage is done.

"You turn if you want to. The lady's NOT for turning!"

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