politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps I’ve judged Corbyn wrong as new Ipsos MORI poll sees C

First?

Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

Abstaining. The bastards are taking away my winter fuel allowance just as I get eligible to claim it. Typical fecking Tories.

SimonStClare said:

Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

Israeli footballer who played for Liverpool, and had the worst open goal miss in the history of football. Away at Villa maybe, went round the keeper, open net and he hit the bar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiVq5-u7MH0

I'd wait for a few more polls before concluding that the work of Tories4Corbyn has been too successful.....

PaulM said:

SimonStClare said:

Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

Israeli footballer who played for Liverpool, and had the worst open goal miss in the history of football. Away at Villa maybe, went round the keeper, open net and he put in in the stands

Thanks - quite an apt assessment of Tim then…

[edit] Cheers TSE

Having initially failed to react either to last night's YouGov or this morning's Ipsos MORI polls, the two main spreadbetting firms have at last succumbed to the latest findings - or perhaps it's to the Tory manifesto .... who knows?

Anyway, Sporting's current seat quotes are:

Con ....... 392 - 398
Lab ........ 159 - 165

Spreadex meanwhile goes somewhat stronger on Labour:

Con ....... 393 - 399
Lab ....... 162 - 168

So in both cases, the spreads have reduced by around 4 seats for the Tories and increased to the same extent in terms of Labour seats. Not a huge movement it has to be said, but sufficient for me to cover the 6 seat spreads involved. Am I exiting at break-even now given the chance? Er .... no!

CarlottaVance said:

I'd wait for a few more polls before concluding that the work of Tories4Corbyn has been too successful.....

The long erosion of the combined vote for Conservatives and Labour has gone into sharp reverse.

Corbyn has cleaned up among those voters who want a radical socialist society, and (for the time being) has retained those Labour loyalists who aren't hardline socialists, but don't want to see their party obliterated.

Jeremy Corbyn is having a big rally in West Kirby of all places on Saturday afternoon. Apparently to support Margaret Greenwood in Wirral West, who I had assumed was toast

Whoever leaked the manifesto is a genius.

I bet JC is starting to regret ruling out a coalition with Jockbollah. It's almost within grasp.

What is remarkable is that it feels like the campaign is now finished, in that the parties have nothing new to say, yet we have three more weeks to run.

Essexit said:

RIP my bets on Labour vote share 20-25% and <20%.</p>

I've bet on 25-30%, I didn't think I'd miss on the high side!

"Ronnie Rosenthal"

"There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses" - am I the only one who doesn't know?

PAW said:

"There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses" - am I the only one who doesn't know?

Yes

Tim Farron = Festus Baise:

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/15-worst-or-best-own-goals-all-time

bigjohnowls said:

dyedwoolie said:

Fpt re care
There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses.

But if that loophole isnt closed the policy is not funded

Indeed

SeanT said:

I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

Possibly, but to who's advantage? Maybe Ukip could sneak 4%, but the Lib Dems are having a pretty dreadful election.

I think this may be anti tory tactical voting coming into effect. May has clearly made great strides among voters but there will always be a significant chunk of voters unable to vote Conservative just like there was still a chunk of voters unable to vote Labour even in Blair's 97 landslide. In this election, with the LDs having such a low base, 90% of people thinking of tactical voting will be voting Labour. Unlike in recent elections, anyone with a vague anti-tory leaning is going to be looking at that coming landslide and will put aside most other considerations.

I still think Labour will perform worse on the night (I have them on 25-30%), but the trend is clear, and I'm not sure minor events like Farron's gay sex comments would be moving the needle enough to explain this.

bigjohnowls said:

dyedwoolie said:

Fpt re care
There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses.

But if that loophole isnt closed the policy is not funded

if it's the loophole I'm thinking of might it not lose the additional residence nil rate band IHT exemption by doing so (so bigger estates might want to take care)?

https://twitter.com/aidankerrtweets/status/865200054797299713

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

SimonStClare said:

Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

don't feed the troll

I'd have thought you'd have appreciated the reference to the Spurs legend.

At least I didn't compare Tim Farron to Roberto Soldado.

I'm waiting for that one....

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

This seems far more likely, Labour gets 29%, with loads of votes piled up in places that no good to them, Tories get 45%, and Lib Dems do better in vote share but not necessarily in seats.

I don't believe if May really thought Labour were closing in she would be announcing policies to smack the oldies. It would be safety first. Instead she seems to be trying to park her tanks all over soft left centre territory.

If you take 5% away from Labour and 4% away from the Tories where is the vote going to go?

To Doctor Paul Nuttall OBE, or Tim I'll hold my breath until you cancel Brexit Farron?

SimonStClare said:

Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

A footballer who that the Labour Party wouldn't like

peter_from_putney said:

Having initially failed to react either to last night's YouGov or this morning's Ipsos MORI polls, the two main spreadbetting firms have at last succumbed to the latest findings - or perhaps it's to the Tory manifesto .... who knows?

Anyway, Sporting's current seat quotes are:

Con ....... 392 - 398
Lab ........ 159 - 165

Spreadex meanwhile goes somewhat stronger on Labour:

Con ....... 393 - 399
Lab ....... 162 - 168

So in both cases, the spreads have reduced by around 4 seats for the Tories and increased to the same extent in terms of Labour seats. Not a huge movement it has to be said, but sufficient for me to cover the 6 seat spreads involved. Am I exiting at break-even now given the chance? Er .... no!

Well done, PfP. The downside risk on the bet is now looking minimal.

And I guess you are reasonably happy with your 'Trump to go early' bets? It begins to appear more a case of when rather than if.

IanB2 said:

What is remarkable is that it feels like the campaign is now finished, in that the parties have nothing new to say, yet we have three more weeks to run.

Quite the reverse in my view. The manifesto is the campaign document for all parties now that the Conservative one is out campaigning proper can begin.

Peter_the_Punter said:

peter_from_putney said:

Having initially failed to react either to last night's YouGov or this morning's Ipsos MORI polls, the two main spreadbetting firms have at last succumbed to the latest findings - or perhaps it's to the Tory manifesto .... who knows?

Anyway, Sporting's current seat quotes are:

Con ....... 392 - 398
Lab ........ 159 - 165

Spreadex meanwhile goes somewhat stronger on Labour:

Con ....... 393 - 399
Lab ....... 162 - 168

So in both cases, the spreads have reduced by around 4 seats for the Tories and increased to the same extent in terms of Labour seats. Not a huge movement it has to be said, but sufficient for me to cover the 6 seat spreads involved. Am I exiting at break-even now given the chance? Er .... no!

Well done, PfP. The downside risk on the bet is now looking minimal.

And I guess you are reasonably happy with your 'Trump to go early' bets? It begins to appear more a case of when rather than if.

I'm keeping calm and not closing out my spread positions. Yet.

For everyone thinking the Tories will get, say, 45, unless they lose ground in the next 3 weeks the polling has to be overstating them, a very rare phenomena and no reason to think it isn't this time. The polling suggests they will indeed get 46-49 area or maybe above if the usual understatement is in play.
Please do not mistake my reading of the situation as a wish. I merely foretell.

The danger for the Conservatives is that their social care announcement will be twisted in the media by Labour and the Lib Dems to make them out as the nasty party and the dementia tax label could be as toxic as the pasty tax was for Osborne. The question is how many votes will this lose ? the Tories have a become too complacent because of the large lead and whilst I agree that something had to be done about social care could not this of been sorted mid Parliament rather than making it a general election issue when Brexit is the main issue? seems a high risk strategy to me

peter_from_putney said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

Possibly, but to who's advantage? Maybe Ukip could sneak 4%, but the Lib Dems are having a pretty dreadful election.

Indeed, suddenly Labour's chances at 3/1 of winning Cambridge look a whole lot more attractive, but DYOR.

4/1 with Sky Bet...

All this talk of a realignment on the left. Well it has happened, but not as expected by the right.

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

I think you are about right there. My current prediction is 95. Won't bet until the eve of poll (and even then only if value).

my current thinking is around the 160 mark! but still a long time before polling day.

Hysterical drivel.
Labour are averageing 30% & The Libdems 9%, this Poll is not significantly out of line with that.
Since The Election was called there has been a classic "2 Party Squeeze", all the "Other" Parties have fallen. That may continue or stop or go into reverse, who knows ?
Certainly The Libdem Vote share is holding up a lot better than those of UKIP or The Greens.

bigjohnowls said:

MarqueeMark said:

SquareRoot said:

Abstaining. The bastards are taking away my winter fuel allowance just as I get eligible to claim it. Typical fecking Tories.

Labour will take away your ability to afford winter fuel....

How? By retaining the winter fuel allowance.

by causing hyper inflation and wrecking the economy . they will make a loaf of bread unaffordable

kjohnw said:

The danger for the Conservatives is that their social care announcement will be twisted in the media by Labour and the Lib Dems to make them out as the nasty party and the dementia tax label could be as toxic as the pasty tax was for Osborne. The question is how many votes will this lose ? the Tories have a become too complacent because of the large lead and whilst I agree that something had to be done about social care could not this of been sorted mid Parliament rather than making it a general election issue when Brexit is the main issue? seems a high risk strategy to me

The lunchtime vox pops on this were for the most part extremely negative, and I did not get the impression at all that this was the BBC picking their interviewees to put a message across. What effect it might have onthe vote, I have no idea, but it's not going to be positive.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

This seems far more likely, Labour gets 29%, with loads of votes piled up in places that no good to them, Tories get 45%, and Lib Dems do better in vote share but not necessarily in seats.

I don't believe if May really thought Labour were closing in she would be announcing policies to smack the oldies. It would be safety first. Instead she seems to be trying to park her tanks all over soft left centre territory.

If you take 5% away from Labour and 4% away from the Tories where is the vote going to go?

To Doctor Paul Nuttall OBE, or Tim I'll hold my breath until you cancel Brexit Farron?

Well I certainly think even though Tiny Tim is crap 7% is way way too low. I don't think it is crazy to think they will be 5-6% more than that. Now obviously we still have to find a 2-3% going elsewhere.

I think that the difference between red and blue in this election is so stark - and the Lib Dems are so weak - that people will feel compelled to fall behind one side or another. Either they will vote blue to stop Corbyn, or vote red to stop a massive Tory landslide.

Tim will get caught in the middle.

SeanT said:

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

I think you are about right there. My current prediction is 95. Won't bet until the eve of poll (and even then only if value).

That's a nightmare result for Labour. A very solid Tory majority, probably giving them a decade in power, but just enough signs of Labour resilience for Corbyn to cling on, at least until his favoured replacement is ready.

Most of the naive Millennials who are propping him up have never tasted such a shellacking. 95 is surely enough to learn them?

P.S. I note you described yourself as a Baby Boomer on the previous thread. Wikipedia tells me you were born 1963, which makes you (early) Generation X I think (1961-1981).

Scott_P said:

@ScotlandElects: General Election voter intention (Scotland):

CON: 31%
SNP: 37%
LAB:

0 for Labour? well it had to happen sooner or later.

Paristonda said:

I think this may be anti tory tactical voting coming into effect. May has clearly made great strides among voters but there will always be a significant chunk of voters unable to vote Conservative just like there was still a chunk of voters unable to vote Labour even in Blair's 97 landslide. In this election, with the LDs having such a low base, 90% of people thinking of tactical voting will be voting Labour. Unlike in recent elections, anyone with a vague anti-tory leaning is going to be looking at that coming landslide and will put aside most other considerations.

I still think Labour will perform worse on the night (I have them on 25-30%), but the trend is clear, and I'm not sure minor events like Farron's gay sex comments would be moving the needle enough to explain this.

If it is anti-Tory tactical voting, it has to come from a) Greens b) hard-core Commies c) about three former UKIP voters who like Corbyn's open borders and d) those who left the LibDems to go to Labour, then returned to take them up to say 11-12% - but have now left again.

That would mean the remaining LibDems will be disproportionately better inclined towards the siren voice of the Tories. Still room for the LibDems to drop further....

TheScreamingEagles said:

If I wanted to be truly cruel I should have compared Farron to Jade Dernbach

Did she take her clothes off in BB house.


God does not approve of stripping on National TV


Or if you mean the Surrey bowler Earrings in both ears, tattoos covering each arm and words to accompany each delivery in which way does Tim remind you of him

Dura_Ace said:

I don't even know why they wanted to do the dementia tax. It's a cast iron vote loser and nobody gives a fuck about the deficit anyway.

sensible people do> Look what Brown's economic policy did to the country. People still spit at the mere mention of the great mincer.

If we are to remove 4-5% from the big two, and the others are as crap as the polls suggest, surely the betting move is....

Any guesses as to what I think?

Dura_Ace said:

I don't even know why they wanted to do the dementia tax. It's a cast iron vote loser and nobody gives a fuck about the deficit anyway.

True the deficit has not been pushed into the long grass another 10 years.I can not imagine suburbia in many towns and cities will like the 100k been taken from their house for care .

SquareRoot said:

Dura_Ace said:

I don't even know why they wanted to do the dementia tax. It's a cast iron vote loser and nobody gives a fuck about the deficit anyway.

sensible people do> Look what Brown's economic policy did to the country. People still spit at the mere mention of the great mincer.

Sadly most people are not sensible. The majority of the UK public have no grasp what the deficit actually is – never mind caring about it.

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/scotlandelects/status/865083293343121408

Cross-over tantalisingly within reach, Ruth....

bloody hell that's amazing..

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If I wanted to be truly cruel I should have compared Farron to Jade Dernbach

I was saying to my parents he's having a terrible GE campaign

Any vote for LD in LAB marginals like where you live lets in the Tories.

Talk to your better half!!!

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/scotlandelects/status/865083293343121408

You pushing fake news?

GIN1138 said:

kjohnw said:

The danger for the Conservatives is that their social care announcement will be twisted in the media by Labour and the Lib Dems to make them out as the nasty party and the dementia tax label could be as toxic as the pasty tax was for Osborne. The question is how many votes will this lose ? the Tories have a become too complacent because of the large lead and whilst I agree that something had to be done about social care could not this of been sorted mid Parliament rather than making it a general election issue when Brexit is the main issue? seems a high risk strategy to me

Theresa must have taken this decision herself.


The manifesto could've said something completely beige like "we'll set up a royal commission to examine all social care funding models with implementation of it's recommendations within a year, etc...)

I'm sure Lynton would've told her not to touch this stuff with a barge poll...

I would guess that Theresa and her peer group are of an age where they are experiencing first hand the stresses of dealing with oldies....at least she is trying to move the debate forward rather than just stick her head into the ground....