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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps I’ve judged Corbyn wrong as new Ipsos MORI poll sees C

SystemSystem Posts: 11,686
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps I’ve judged Corbyn wrong as new Ipsos MORI poll sees Corbyn’s Labour catapult 8% to 34%

Latest @IpsosMORI poll for The @standardnews

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    First?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,698
    Second like SCon!
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Fpt re care
    There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses.
    the bleating rich will be fine, the poorest protected and noone has to pay during their lifetime.
    Seems reasonable to me. Still not voting for her though!
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Abstaining. The bastards are taking away my winter fuel allowance just as I get eligible to claim it. Typical fecking Tories.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    It's all Tim Farron's fault, innit?
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    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    edited May 2017
    SimonStClare said:

    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

    Israeli footballer who played for Liverpool, and had the worst open goal miss in the history of football. Away at Villa maybe, went round the keeper, open net and he hit the bar

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiVq5-u7MH0
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    RIP my bets on Labour vote share 20-25% and <20%.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,698
    I'd wait for a few more polls before concluding that the work of Tories4Corbyn has been too successful.....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    edited May 2017
    SimonStClare said:

    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

    He's a footballer and Spurs legend, he is responsible for the worst miss in front of an open goal of all time


    https://youtu.be/kiVq5-u7MH0
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    PaulM said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

    Israeli footballer who played for Liverpool, and had the worst open goal miss in the history of football. Away at Villa maybe, went round the keeper, open net and he put in in the stands
    Thanks - quite an apt assessment of Tim then…

    [edit] Cheers TSE :lol:
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,284
    First
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Having initially failed to react either to last night's YouGov or this morning's Ipsos MORI polls, the two main spreadbetting firms have at last succumbed to the latest findings - or perhaps it's to the Tory manifesto .... who knows?

    Anyway, Sporting's current seat quotes are:

    Con ....... 392 - 398
    Lab ........ 159 - 165

    Spreadex meanwhile goes somewhat stronger on Labour:

    Con ....... 393 - 399
    Lab ....... 162 - 168

    So in both cases, the spreads have reduced by around 4 seats for the Tories and increased to the same extent in terms of Labour seats. Not a huge movement it has to be said, but sufficient for me to cover the 6 seat spreads involved. Am I exiting at break-even now given the chance? Er .... no!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    SquareRoot said:

    Abstaining. The bastards are taking away my winter fuel allowance just as I get eligible to claim it. Typical fecking Tories.

    Labour will take away your ability to afford winter fuel....
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    CarlottaVance said:

    I'd wait for a few more polls before concluding that the work of Tories4Corbyn has been too successful.....

    The long erosion of the combined vote for Conservatives and Labour has gone into sharp reverse.

    Corbyn has cleaned up among those voters who want a radical socialist society, and (for the time being) has retained those Labour loyalists who aren't hardline socialists, but don't want to see their party obliterated.
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Essexit said:

    RIP my bets on Labour vote share 20-25% and <20%.</p>

    at coral the 30-35% band is almost as short as 25-30%. I still think they dip back below 30 on the night and I'd cash out my 30-35 bet if I could but no cashout option available.
  • Options
    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Jeremy Corbyn is having a big rally in West Kirby of all places on Saturday afternoon. Apparently to support Margaret Greenwood in Wirral West, who I had assumed was toast
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Whoever leaked the manifesto is a genius.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,871
    dyedwoolie said:

    Fpt re care
    There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses.

    But if that loophole isnt closed the policy is not funded
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2017
    Those polling numbers, utter bullshit....Polling Disaster Inquiry Mk II coming up.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,002
    I bet JC is starting to regret ruling out a coalition with Jockbollah. It's almost within grasp.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Utter bullshit....Polling Disaster Inquiry Mk II coming up.

    You think the Tories are over 50% ? ;)
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,284
    What is remarkable is that it feels like the campaign is now finished, in that the parties have nothing new to say, yet we have three more weeks to run.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MarqueeMark said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Abstaining. The bastards are taking away my winter fuel allowance just as I get eligible to claim it. Typical fecking Tories.

    Labour will take away your ability to afford winter fuel....
    I know but nevertheless its bloody annoying. Of course I'll vote but I am pretty pissed off about it. My fuel bills (oil) are not cheap.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Essexit said:

    RIP my bets on Labour vote share 20-25% and <20%.</p>

    I've bet on 25-30%, I didn't think I'd miss on the high side!
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    paulyork64 said:

    Essexit said:

    RIP my bets on Labour vote share 20-25% and <20%.</p>

    at coral the 30-35% band is almost as short as 25-30%. I still think they dip back below 30 on the night and I'd cash out my 30-35 bet if I could but no cashout option available.
    25-30% is right to be favourite despite polls like the above - we've not had the full force of the Tories' attack on Corbyn yet. Sub 25% seems highly unlikely though.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    "Ronnie Rosenthal"
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    SimonStClare said:

    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

    don't feed the troll
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    "There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses" - am I the only one who doesn't know?
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Catapult?? Hyperbole much?

    Labour's getting obliterated, even on this outlier poll.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,871
    PAW said:

    "There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses" - am I the only one who doesn't know?

    Yes
  • Options
    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Dura_Ace said:

    I bet JC is starting to regret ruling out a coalition with Jockbollah. It's almost within grasp.

    It wouldn't be within grasp if he admitted it was!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Tim Farron = Festus Baise:

    https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/15-worst-or-best-own-goals-all-time
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2017
    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    This seems far more likely, Labour gets 29%, with loads of votes piled up in places that no good to them, Tories get 45%, and Lib Dems do better in vote share but not necessarily in seats.

    I don't believe if May really thought Labour were closing in she would be announcing policies to smack the oldies. It would be safety first. Instead she seems to be trying to park her tanks all over soft left centre territory.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    bigjohnowls said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Fpt re care
    There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses.

    But if that loophole isnt closed the policy is not funded
    Indeed
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    "Spurs legend"

    new thread please!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    Possibly, but to who's advantage? Maybe Ukip could sneak 4%, but the Lib Dems are having a pretty dreadful election.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

    don't feed the troll
    I'd have thought you'd have appreciated the reference to the Spurs legend.

    At least I didn't compare Tim Farron to Roberto Soldado.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    I think this may be anti tory tactical voting coming into effect. May has clearly made great strides among voters but there will always be a significant chunk of voters unable to vote Conservative just like there was still a chunk of voters unable to vote Labour even in Blair's 97 landslide. In this election, with the LDs having such a low base, 90% of people thinking of tactical voting will be voting Labour. Unlike in recent elections, anyone with a vague anti-tory leaning is going to be looking at that coming landslide and will put aside most other considerations.

    I still think Labour will perform worse on the night (I have them on 25-30%), but the trend is clear, and I'm not sure minor events like Farron's gay sex comments would be moving the needle enough to explain this.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    bobajobPB said:

    Catapult?? Hyperbole much?

    Labour's getting obliterated, even on this outlier poll.

    Only because the Tories are so far out in front. If Corbyn really does get a higher vote share than Brown 2010 or Miliband 2015 (and not far behind Blair 2005, for that matter) it will be quite something.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    bigjohnowls said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Fpt re care
    There are fairly easy ways, under a modest capital layout, to protect houses.

    But if that loophole isnt closed the policy is not funded
    if it's the loophole I'm thinking of might it not lose the additional residence nil rate band IHT exemption by doing so (so bigger estates might want to take care)?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Essexit said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Catapult?? Hyperbole much?

    Labour's getting obliterated, even on this outlier poll.

    Only because the Tories are so far out in front. If Corbyn really does get a higher vote share than Brown 2010 or Miliband 2015 (and not far behind Blair 2005, for that matter) it will be quite something.
    And we will be stuck with the terrorist sympathizing, communist enabling moron.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/aidankerrtweets/status/865200054797299713
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    I think you are about right there. My current prediction is 95. Won't bet until the eve of poll (and even then only if value).
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

    don't feed the troll
    I'd have thought you'd have appreciated the reference to the Spurs legend.

    At least I didn't compare Tim Farron to Roberto Soldado.
    I'm waiting for that one....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/865195425246130176
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    This seems far more likely, Labour gets 29%, with loads of votes piled up in places that no good to them, Tories get 45%, and Lib Dems do better in vote share but not necessarily in seats.

    I don't believe if May really thought Labour were closing in she would be announcing policies to smack the oldies. It would be safety first. Instead she seems to be trying to park her tanks all over soft left centre territory.
    If you take 5% away from Labour and 4% away from the Tories where is the vote going to go?

    To Doctor Paul Nuttall OBE, or Tim I'll hold my breath until you cancel Brexit Farron?
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    tlg86 said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    Possibly, but to who's advantage? Maybe Ukip could sneak 4%, but the Lib Dems are having a pretty dreadful election.
    Indeed, suddenly Labour's chances at 3/1 of winning Cambridge look a whole lot more attractive, but DYOR.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    SimonStClare said:

    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

    A footballer who that the Labour Party wouldn't like
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Er, who is Ronnie Rosenthal ?

    don't feed the troll
    I'd have thought you'd have appreciated the reference to the Spurs legend.

    At least I didn't compare Tim Farron to Roberto Soldado.
    I'm waiting for that one....
    I'm saving that for election night if Mrs May doesn't get a huge majority.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320
    peter_from_putney said:

    Having initially failed to react either to last night's YouGov or this morning's Ipsos MORI polls, the two main spreadbetting firms have at last succumbed to the latest findings - or perhaps it's to the Tory manifesto .... who knows?

    Anyway, Sporting's current seat quotes are:

    Con ....... 392 - 398
    Lab ........ 159 - 165

    Spreadex meanwhile goes somewhat stronger on Labour:

    Con ....... 393 - 399
    Lab ....... 162 - 168

    So in both cases, the spreads have reduced by around 4 seats for the Tories and increased to the same extent in terms of Labour seats. Not a huge movement it has to be said, but sufficient for me to cover the 6 seat spreads involved. Am I exiting at break-even now given the chance? Er .... no!

    Well done, PfP. The downside risk on the bet is now looking minimal.

    And I guess you are reasonably happy with your 'Trump to go early' bets? It begins to appear more a case of when rather than if.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    If I wanted to be truly cruel I should have compared Farron to Jade Dernbach
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    IanB2 said:

    What is remarkable is that it feels like the campaign is now finished, in that the parties have nothing new to say, yet we have three more weeks to run.

    Quite the reverse in my view. The manifesto is the campaign document for all parties now that the Conservative one is out campaigning proper can begin.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,871
    MarqueeMark said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Abstaining. The bastards are taking away my winter fuel allowance just as I get eligible to claim it. Typical fecking Tories.

    Labour will take away your ability to afford winter fuel....
    How? By retaining the winter fuel allowance.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Having initially failed to react either to last night's YouGov or this morning's Ipsos MORI polls, the two main spreadbetting firms have at last succumbed to the latest findings - or perhaps it's to the Tory manifesto .... who knows?

    Anyway, Sporting's current seat quotes are:

    Con ....... 392 - 398
    Lab ........ 159 - 165

    Spreadex meanwhile goes somewhat stronger on Labour:

    Con ....... 393 - 399
    Lab ....... 162 - 168

    So in both cases, the spreads have reduced by around 4 seats for the Tories and increased to the same extent in terms of Labour seats. Not a huge movement it has to be said, but sufficient for me to cover the 6 seat spreads involved. Am I exiting at break-even now given the chance? Er .... no!

    Well done, PfP. The downside risk on the bet is now looking minimal.

    And I guess you are reasonably happy with your 'Trump to go early' bets? It begins to appear more a case of when rather than if.
    I'm keeping calm and not closing out my spread positions. Yet.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    This seems far more likely, Labour gets 29%, with loads of votes piled up in places that no good to them, Tories get 45%, and Lib Dems do better in vote share but not necessarily in seats.

    I don't believe if May really thought Labour were closing in she would be announcing policies to smack the oldies. It would be safety first. Instead she seems to be trying to park her tanks all over soft left centre territory.
    If you take 5% away from Labour and 4% away from the Tories where is the vote going to go?

    To Doctor Paul Nuttall OBE, or Tim I'll hold my breath until you cancel Brexit Farron?
    Well I certainly think even though Tiny Tim is crap 7% is way way too low. I don't think it is crazy to think they will be 5-6% more than that. Now obviously we still have to find a 2-3% going elsewhere.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017
    For everyone thinking the Tories will get, say, 45, unless they lose ground in the next 3 weeks the polling has to be overstating them, a very rare phenomena and no reason to think it isn't this time. The polling suggests they will indeed get 46-49 area or maybe above if the usual understatement is in play.
    Please do not mistake my reading of the situation as a wish. I merely foretell.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    If Ipsos are running to their recent form the Tories will win by 23.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    The danger for the Conservatives is that their social care announcement will be twisted in the media by Labour and the Lib Dems to make them out as the nasty party and the dementia tax label could be as toxic as the pasty tax was for Osborne. The question is how many votes will this lose ? the Tories have a become too complacent because of the large lead and whilst I agree that something had to be done about social care could not this of been sorted mid Parliament rather than making it a general election issue when Brexit is the main issue? seems a high risk strategy to me
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited May 2017
    Makes you wonder where all these Lab voters are flocking from...
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    edited May 2017
    peter_from_putney said:

    tlg86 said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    Possibly, but to who's advantage? Maybe Ukip could sneak 4%, but the Lib Dems are having a pretty dreadful election.
    Indeed, suddenly Labour's chances at 3/1 of winning Cambridge look a whole lot more attractive, but DYOR.
    4/1 with Sky Bet...
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    How does one sum up Polly Toynbee?

    Her Retweeting someone tweeting her on the telly perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/865181506729373697
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,627
    All this talk of a realignment on the left. Well it has happened, but not as expected by the right.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    This is all plan by the Tory pollsters to make the election look closer than it is.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    bobajobPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    I think you are about right there. My current prediction is 95. Won't bet until the eve of poll (and even then only if value).
    my current thinking is around the 160 mark! but still a long time before polling day.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,002
    I don't even know why they wanted to do the dementia tax. It's a cast iron vote loser and nobody gives a fuck about the deficit anyway.
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    paulbarkerpaulbarker Posts: 77
    Hysterical drivel.
    Labour are averageing 30% & The Libdems 9%, this Poll is not significantly out of line with that.
    Since The Election was called there has been a classic "2 Party Squeeze", all the "Other" Parties have fallen. That may continue or stop or go into reverse, who knows ?
    Certainly The Libdem Vote share is holding up a lot better than those of UKIP or The Greens.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    If Corbyn gets that many votes it'd be horrendous.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Abstaining. The bastards are taking away my winter fuel allowance just as I get eligible to claim it. Typical fecking Tories.

    Labour will take away your ability to afford winter fuel....
    How? By retaining the winter fuel allowance.
    by causing hyper inflation and wrecking the economy . they will make a loaf of bread unaffordable
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If I wanted to be truly cruel I should have compared Farron to Jade Dernbach

    I was saying to my parents he's having a terrible GE campaign
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    kjohnw said:

    The danger for the Conservatives is that their social care announcement will be twisted in the media by Labour and the Lib Dems to make them out as the nasty party and the dementia tax label could be as toxic as the pasty tax was for Osborne. The question is how many votes will this lose ? the Tories have a become too complacent because of the large lead and whilst I agree that something had to be done about social care could not this of been sorted mid Parliament rather than making it a general election issue when Brexit is the main issue? seems a high risk strategy to me

    The lunchtime vox pops on this were for the most part extremely negative, and I did not get the impression at all that this was the BBC picking their interviewees to put a message across. What effect it might have onthe vote, I have no idea, but it's not going to be positive.

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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If I wanted to be truly cruel I should have compared Farron to Jade Dernbach

    I was saying to my parents he's having a terrible GE campaign
    That's harsh.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    This seems far more likely, Labour gets 29%, with loads of votes piled up in places that no good to them, Tories get 45%, and Lib Dems do better in vote share but not necessarily in seats.

    I don't believe if May really thought Labour were closing in she would be announcing policies to smack the oldies. It would be safety first. Instead she seems to be trying to park her tanks all over soft left centre territory.
    If you take 5% away from Labour and 4% away from the Tories where is the vote going to go?

    To Doctor Paul Nuttall OBE, or Tim I'll hold my breath until you cancel Brexit Farron?
    Well I certainly think even though Tiny Tim is crap 7% is way way too low. I don't think it is crazy to think they will be 5-6% more than that. Now obviously we still have to find a 2-3% going elsewhere.
    I think that the difference between red and blue in this election is so stark - and the Lib Dems are so weak - that people will feel compelled to fall behind one side or another. Either they will vote blue to stop Corbyn, or vote red to stop a massive Tory landslide.

    Tim will get caught in the middle.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,857
    Afternoon all :)

    Cheap jibes against Tim Farron notwithstanding, it's a very poor poll for the LDs and there's no point sugar coating it. It's quite possible the Party might have fewer than 9 seats after the GE.

    Why is anyone surprised ? Barely two years after a calamitous defeat and the Party is struggling to pick itself up. Let's not forget what happened to the Conservatives after four years of Labour Government in 2001 when, arguably, the foot and mouth epidemic prevented an even greater Conservative rout. Even with the epidemic which did much to solidify Conservative support in affected rural areas, the Party stood still and lost its leader.

    Ah well, hopefully it won't be as bad as 1951 in percentage terms...
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    SeanT said:

    bobajobPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't believe Labour will get 34% but nor do I believe the Tories will get 49%.

    Knock 3-5 points off each for the result?

    Time to dust off my initial prediction of an 80-100 seat Tory maj,

    I think you are about right there. My current prediction is 95. Won't bet until the eve of poll (and even then only if value).
    That's a nightmare result for Labour. A very solid Tory majority, probably giving them a decade in power, but just enough signs of Labour resilience for Corbyn to cling on, at least until his favoured replacement is ready.
    Most of the naive Millennials who are propping him up have never tasted such a shellacking. 95 is surely enough to learn them?

    P.S. I note you described yourself as a Baby Boomer on the previous thread. Wikipedia tells me you were born 1963, which makes you (early) Generation X I think (1961-1981).
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2017
    https://twitter.com/scotlandelects/status/865083293343121408
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    bobajobPB said:

    Catapult?? Hyperbole much?

    Labour's getting obliterated, even on this outlier poll.

    It would not be obliteration. A 15% Tory lead implies Labour losing 35 seats to the Tories - though they may claw back a few from the SNP and end up on circa 200 seats.
    Yougov's 13% lead would lead to only 26 losses and might leave Labour with approx 210 seats.
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    DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 353
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Those polling numbers, utter bullshit....Polling Disaster Inquiry Mk II coming up.

    I agree. I don't think Labour's message has halved the LD's position. I am also not convinced that there will be a total landslide for the Conservatives, but let's see how the manifesto discussions play...
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Scott_P said:

    @ScotlandElects: General Election voter intention (Scotland):

    CON: 31%
    SNP: 37%
    LAB:

    0 for Labour? well it had to happen sooner or later.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    kjohnw said:

    The danger for the Conservatives is that their social care announcement will be twisted in the media by Labour and the Lib Dems to make them out as the nasty party and the dementia tax label could be as toxic as the pasty tax was for Osborne. The question is how many votes will this lose ? the Tories have a become too complacent because of the large lead and whilst I agree that something had to be done about social care could not this of been sorted mid Parliament rather than making it a general election issue when Brexit is the main issue? seems a high risk strategy to me

    Theresa must have taken this decision herself.


    The manifesto could've said something completely beige like "we'll set up a royal commission to examine all social care funding models with implementation of it's recommendations within a year, etc...)

    I'm sure Lynton would've told her not to touch this stuff with a barge poll...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited May 2017
    Paristonda said:

    I think this may be anti tory tactical voting coming into effect. May has clearly made great strides among voters but there will always be a significant chunk of voters unable to vote Conservative just like there was still a chunk of voters unable to vote Labour even in Blair's 97 landslide. In this election, with the LDs having such a low base, 90% of people thinking of tactical voting will be voting Labour. Unlike in recent elections, anyone with a vague anti-tory leaning is going to be looking at that coming landslide and will put aside most other considerations.

    I still think Labour will perform worse on the night (I have them on 25-30%), but the trend is clear, and I'm not sure minor events like Farron's gay sex comments would be moving the needle enough to explain this.

    If it is anti-Tory tactical voting, it has to come from a) Greens b) hard-core Commies c) about three former UKIP voters who like Corbyn's open borders and d) those who left the LibDems to go to Labour, then returned to take them up to say 11-12% - but have now left again.

    That would mean the remaining LibDems will be disproportionately better inclined towards the siren voice of the Tories. Still room for the LibDems to drop further....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/scotlandelects/status/865083293343121408

    Spoof account.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,871
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If I wanted to be truly cruel I should have compared Farron to Jade Dernbach

    Did she take her clothes off in BB house.


    God does not approve of stripping on National TV


    Or if you mean the Surrey bowler Earrings in both ears, tattoos covering each arm and words to accompany each delivery in which way does Tim remind you of him
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FPT rural_voter said "Er, Wales is the 5th. poorest nation in the EU. Send it to Anglesey or Milford Haven."

    I was thinking more in terms of punishment for C4 rather than prize for recipient location.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't even know why they wanted to do the dementia tax. It's a cast iron vote loser and nobody gives a fuck about the deficit anyway.

    sensible people do> Look what Brown's economic policy did to the country. People still spit at the mere mention of the great mincer.
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    DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 353
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Having initially failed to react either to last night's YouGov or this morning's Ipsos MORI polls, the two main spreadbetting firms have at last succumbed to the latest findings - or perhaps it's to the Tory manifesto .... who knows?

    Anyway, Sporting's current seat quotes are:

    Con ....... 392 - 398
    Lab ........ 159 - 165

    Spreadex meanwhile goes somewhat stronger on Labour:

    Con ....... 393 - 399
    Lab ....... 162 - 168

    So in both cases, the spreads have reduced by around 4 seats for the Tories and increased to the same extent in terms of Labour seats. Not a huge movement it has to be said, but sufficient for me to cover the 6 seat spreads involved. Am I exiting at break-even now given the chance? Er .... no!

    Well done, PfP. The downside risk on the bet is now looking minimal.

    And I guess you are reasonably happy with your 'Trump to go early' bets? It begins to appear more a case of when rather than if.
    I'm keeping calm and not closing out my spread positions. Yet.
    Wise. It is one poll. Interesting indeed, but plenty of time to go...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    If we are to remove 4-5% from the big two, and the others are as crap as the polls suggest, surely the betting move is....

    Any guesses as to what I think?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    I cannot understand why the NHS free at point of use is sacrosanct but we hammer our oldies when they are at their most vulnerable...

    I would much rather introduce sensible charging across the NHS, combined with some kind of compulsory insurance system that people have to pay into for old age.....
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't even know why they wanted to do the dementia tax. It's a cast iron vote loser and nobody gives a fuck about the deficit anyway.

    True the deficit has not been pushed into the long grass another 10 years.I can not imagine suburbia in many towns and cities will like the 100k been taken from their house for care .
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/scotlandelects/status/865083293343121408

    Cross-over tantalisingly within reach, Ruth....
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    SquareRoot said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't even know why they wanted to do the dementia tax. It's a cast iron vote loser and nobody gives a fuck about the deficit anyway.

    sensible people do> Look what Brown's economic policy did to the country. People still spit at the mere mention of the great mincer.
    Sadly most people are not sensible. The majority of the UK public have no grasp what the deficit actually is – never mind caring about it.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Yorkcity said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't even know why they wanted to do the dementia tax. It's a cast iron vote loser and nobody gives a fuck about the deficit anyway.

    True the deficit has not been pushed into the long grass another 10 years.I can not imagine suburbia in many towns and cities will like the 100k been taken from their house for care .
    Apologies any over 100k.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/scotlandelects/status/865083293343121408

    Cross-over tantalisingly within reach, Ruth....
    bloody hell that's amazing..
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If I wanted to be truly cruel I should have compared Farron to Jade Dernbach

    Did she take her clothes off in BB house.


    God does not approve of stripping on National TV


    Or if you mean the Surrey bowler Earrings in both ears, tattoos covering each arm and words to accompany each delivery in which way does Tim remind you of him
    He was truly crap.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,871
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If I wanted to be truly cruel I should have compared Farron to Jade Dernbach

    I was saying to my parents he's having a terrible GE campaign
    Any vote for LD in LAB marginals like where you live lets in the Tories.

    Talk to your better half!!!
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/scotlandelects/status/865083293343121408

    Cross-over tantalisingly within reach, Ruth....
    I can't cross reference this poll anywhere. Subsample? Spoof?
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/scotlandelects/status/865083293343121408

    You pushing fake news?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    tyson said:

    I cannot understand why the NHS free at point of use is sacrosanct but we hammer our oldies when they are at their most vulnerable...

    I would much rather introduce sensible charging across the NHS, combined with some kind of compulsory insurance system that people have to pay into for old age.....

    WOW! A leftie arguing for NHS charging and compulsory health insurance... Has someone hacked Tyson's account? ;)
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    The danger for the Conservatives is that their social care announcement will be twisted in the media by Labour and the Lib Dems to make them out as the nasty party and the dementia tax label could be as toxic as the pasty tax was for Osborne. The question is how many votes will this lose ? the Tories have a become too complacent because of the large lead and whilst I agree that something had to be done about social care could not this of been sorted mid Parliament rather than making it a general election issue when Brexit is the main issue? seems a high risk strategy to me

    Theresa must have taken this decision herself.


    The manifesto could've said something completely beige like "we'll set up a royal commission to examine all social care funding models with implementation of it's recommendations within a year, etc...)

    I'm sure Lynton would've told her not to touch this stuff with a barge poll...

    I would guess that Theresa and her peer group are of an age where they are experiencing first hand the stresses of dealing with oldies....at least she is trying to move the debate forward rather than just stick her head into the ground....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    I met a voter yesterday who was voting Tory. She said she had never voted Tory before - but then checked herself and said, no she had, once - she voted for Winston Churchill.

    Such is the power of Theresa May....
This discussion has been closed.