politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why UKIP standing aside in a particular seat might not be as b
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I think we've got to the stage now where Corbyn will start promising fantastical amounts of extra spending on just about everything. So why stop at 37 billion for the NHS? Why not 100 billion? Why not increase taxes on the rich to the old Labour rate of 90%? Why not increase corporation tax to 40%?
It looks to me like Labour have completely lost touch with reality.0 -
More information is normally good information but I have a distinct fear that constituency polls from Survation may well turn out to be absolutely worthless come the GE if they're released and could mislead punters.0
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The Lib Dems won't be 100% successful in turning these categories of voters to them. It gives them a large pool of voters to fish in with a clear message of internationalism, openness and aspiration. The Conservatives have a larger pool but if they are going to hang onto their "Our Britain" voters they will need to maintain a messaging of national exceptionalism. As things stand and assuming the Lib Dems can pick up at least half of that pool and some other votes here and there, they should be good for 20% of the electorate, which is twice what they have now. The pools aren't fixed in number of adherents. They can argue for a connected more business oriented Britain to win more people to their side, whenever there are practical trade-offs to be made. For example on restrictions on FoM versus trade opportunities.Chelyabinsk said:
Quite. What you're proposing is to take Progressives (the sort of people who say things like 'the bedroom tax' or 'the benefits cap is the final solution for the poor') and persuade them to join a party with ultra-dry Thatcherite Free Liberals, on the grounds that they are both 'internationalist, connected and embrace the modern world' (whatever that means- is privatising the NHS 'embracing the modern world'?). Bear in mind that the only major political realignments in Britain have resulted from the ability to mobilise particular local or sectional loyalties: the working class for Labour replacing the Liberals, and Scottish national identity for the SNP replacing Labour in Scotland.FF43 said:All have an internationalist outlook but there is a tension that would need to be managed between those that are supportive or opposed to the welfare state.
Assuming, however, that the Lib Dems can be 100% successful in winning over these voters that leaves them losing to the Tories 50%-30%. In other words more or less where Corbyn is today, but without union backing, residual loyalty and geographically concentrated support. And your only hope of reducing their majority is to appeal to two groups whose no.1 priority is to reduce net migration to below 100,000 per year, using a party whose sole point of connection is that it's internationalist.
It's an interesting thought exercise in turning the Conservatives into the Japanese Liberal Democrats, or the Singaporean People's Action Party, but not much else.0 -
Mislead uninformed punters.Pulpstar said:More information is normally good information but I have a distinct fear that constituency polls from Survation may well turn out to be absolutely worthless come the GE if they're released and could mislead punters.
Fortunately you're an informed punter, and will take advantage.0 -
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It was a cracking race, I hope it is like this for the rest of the season.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles (2), unfortunately, whilst I did notice it, I was too busy working on Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger (top 5 on the Asian Myths lists on Amazon UK and US, you know) *and* the F1 stuff to respond.
Vettel v Hamilton fighting out for the title all season long would be awesome0 -
Out of date - Scottish Greens not standing.Scott_P said:
https://greens.scot/news/our-targeted-campaign-to-elect-patrick-harvie-as-scotland-s-first-green-mp0 -
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8640678380084797440 -
The essential point, when you read between the lines, is that the UK does not understand the European mindset. This is understandable, of course, because we do not share the experiences that have largely influenced it, such as having cities which have been part of several different countries in their history, and having a long tradition of minority populations (to name but one). On our island we have not faced this sort of thing for a long, long time. (Saxons/Danes, Normans/Saxons).CarlottaVance said:The Economist's Berlin Bureau Chief:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/05/there-new-consensus-germany-brexit-should-be-clean-and-britain-should-pay-it
Whether your instincts are to participate actively in European affairs or stay aloof, we have always been a bad fit for Europe. The thing that surprises me is that there was never a massive blitz on trying to change British perceptions of Europe, rather than just trotting out arguments about economics.0 -
I blame Mrs May.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
She's coming out with a load of left wing bollocks, and is it surprising the Lib Dems are moving even further to the left.0 -
May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
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I expect Labour to win it, but it's not a sure fire thing. It's a seat the Greens should do well in, if they were standing. I think they may have had the most first preference votes in the Council elections for that seat.Pulpstar said:
Yes, you have to wonder what on earth Survation are playing at.TheScreamingEagles said:
Edinburgh South looks a constituency to dodge for me in betting terms.
One for the real gamblers.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I agree. Shame the DRS zone was increased by 100m (from just 57m initially). I doubt Vettel would've been able to pass Bottas, but would Hamilton have been able to pass Vettel?
It's a very tasty season.
Also, check out Perez. He's just 1 point behind Verstappen and 3 off Ricciardo.0 -
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.0 -
Could fierce opposition to fracking make life difficult for certain Tories?
Not in NE Derbyshire!!!0 -
Much needed intervention.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
Tories = party of the wealthy and powerful. Tories will always be on the side of their crooked friends at the top of corporate establishment. People are fed up!0 -
So it was about a month ago that someone e-mailed Wings saying they were polled in Edinburgh South asking how they would vote if Iain Murray stood as an Independent "Stop Brexit" candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I am not Mrs May's biggest fan but blaming her for the stupidity of the Lib Dems is harsh.TheScreamingEagles said:
I blame Mrs May.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
She's coming out with a load of left wing bollocks, and is it surprising the Lib Dems are moving even further to the left.0 -
The National Conservative Workers Party .....TheScreamingEagles said:
I blame Mrs May.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
She's coming out with a load of left wing bollocks, and is it surprising the Lib Dems are moving even further to the left.0 -
Yes it is, and much of the SNP's headline stuff is bizarre. The "Brexit makes a case for indyref2" argument is based on the single market, so the difference between iScotland being inside the EU and being outside it and within the SM is irrelevant. And a country cannot be in an SM with two countries that aren't in an SM with each other, so customs posts at the border it would be. Tesco won't like that one bit. Nor will most people who drive up and down the M6/A74. Say that, and SNPers will shout you down as a fearmonger.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, it's an obviously bizarre position to hold by Sturgeon.
It's time for people to realise the extent to which the SNP relies on a loony vote.
Did you see the crazy interview with defence secretary Michael Fallon, who was asked whether he could guarantee that MOD shipbuilding contracts would remain in Scotland if Scotland were to become independent? The poor soul got flustered. He should have said, "Of course I damned well can't. The British government looks after jobs in Britain, not jobs in foreign countries. And anyway, are you sure an iScottish government would be sufficiently OK with a foreign country's foreign policy to be happy with producing ships for that country's navy?"
The key point is that the whole "let's be independent so we can stay in the EU (or SM)" discourse is a veneered version of the common attitude in sporting competitions: "We support whoever's playing against England". It is all about playing to the xenophobic vote. The SNP does an awful lot of dogwhistling.
(The very few Scottish people who do support England in international competitions are mostly a minority of hardline Protestant sectarians among Rangers fans, of the kind who interpolate the words "No surrender" into the British national anthem. They don't vote SNP.)
In SNP land you are a "quisling" (and usage of that word is growing) if you point out that you can't have your cake and eat it.
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In the Survation I see the NHS is by quite some distance (after Brexit) the number one issue for voters. One reason for Lab resilience?
On checking the all important Scotch subsample, there appears to be no figure for the LDs.
Is there something we should know?0 -
Tebbit et al wouldn't recognise social conservatism if it bit them in the b*m.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
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You say that as if criticism by Lord Tebbit is a bad thing...?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.0 -
They are relics then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
It is not the 1970s any more where a man goes to work and a woman stays at home looking after kids, elderly parents etc.0 -
The important distinction is that the Conservatives nowadays are happy to burden business with social charges (minimum wage, time off etc) as long as the Government doesn't have to pay through the tax system.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.0 -
Yes, Tebbit is such a liberalperdix said:
Tebbit et al wouldn't recognise social conservatism if it bit them in the b*m.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
Gay marriage bill may lead to 'lesbian queen and artificially inseminated heir'
Former Tory chairman Lord Tebbit also warns that legislation could allow him to marry his son to escape inheritance tax
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/may/21/tebbit-gay-marriage-lesbian-queen0 -
Brought to you by CiF.murali_s said:
Much needed intervention.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
Tories = party of the wealthy and powerful. Tories will always be on the side of their crooked friends at the top of corporate establishment. People are fed up!
But you don't seem to be up to date. Sadly whether what you say is or isn't the case (Tory baby-eaters, etc), the alternative is what you should be looking at. Even on CiF the vast majority realise that no matter how nasty the Cons really are, Jeremy would be 1,937,650x worse. Roughly.0 -
CCHQ made clear that their strategy was to yield Corbyn lots of airtime and deliberately refrain from newsworthy stuff in the hope that he'd implode. No good complaining now.LadyBucket said:I hope CCHQ are monitoring the amount of coverage Jeremy Corbyn is getting. He was on three channels, Victoria Derbyshire, Parliament and SKY, this morning, for quite some considerable time. BBC had a breaking news headline, citing the extra 37 bn for the NHS.
"Events, events, dear boy".0 -
It's also fundamentally inconsistent. We want to be able to go into the negotiations with the EU saying, "well, there are two paths ahead of us: a European country with all the social protections that entails, or as a low tax, low regulation Singapore, sitting barely 20 miles off the coast of continental Europe". If we say that now, they'll laugh and say "Pull the other one. You're raising the costs of doing business in the UK. No way are you going down the Singapore route if we don't deal."Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, just how are the 'workers rights' meant to be funded?
To be honest, the more I hear from the Conservatives, the less I'm likely to vote for them.
And then Labour pipe up with their tax-and-spend socialism, led by Corbyn. For ****'s sake. Labour deserves to be crushed for their idiocy putting that far left lunatic onto the shortlist.0 -
On economics, Tebbit knows the dangers of a Tory Prime Minister aping Labour policies, he saw it first hand with Ted Heath.MarqueeMark said:
You say that as if criticism by Lord Tebbit is a bad thing...?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.0 -
Had Vettel not been able to pass Bottas, Hamilton wouldn't have had to do so, as he would have come out in front of him after the second pit stop...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I agree. Shame the DRS zone was increased by 100m (from just 57m initially). I doubt Vettel would've been able to pass Bottas, but would Hamilton have been able to pass Vettel?
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They don't feel strong enough at the moment to allow Tesco to impose an 18-hour working day for a fiver and a bowl of gruel. What a bunch of pinkos!FF43 said:
The important distinction is that the Conservatives nowadays are happy to burden business with social charges (minimum wage, time off etc) as long as the Government doesn't have to pay through the tax system.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
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Spot on. And the sooner we both realise that our perspectives are different, the sooner we can concentrate on getting a relationship going that works for both of us.Disraeli said:
The essential point, when you read between the lines, is that the UK does not understand the European mindset. This is understandable, of course, because we do not share the experiences that have largely influenced it, such as having cities which have been part of several different countries in their history, and having a long tradition of minority populations (to name but one). On our island we have not faced this sort of thing for a long, long time. (Saxons/Danes, Normans/Saxons).CarlottaVance said:The Economist's Berlin Bureau Chief:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/05/there-new-consensus-germany-brexit-should-be-clean-and-britain-should-pay-it
Whether your instincts are to participate actively in European affairs or stay aloof, we have always been a bad fit for Europe. The thing that surprises me is that there was never a massive blitz on trying to change British perceptions of Europe, rather than just trotting out arguments about economics.0 -
That rather ignores the fact that the State is, by some measure, the biggest employer in the country. I am not sure, for example, if the cost of these policies is included in NHS budgeting. I rather doubt it.FF43 said:
The important distinction is that the Conservatives nowadays are happy to burden business with social charges (minimum wage, time off etc) as long as the Government doesn't have to pay through the tax system.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
Clearly the "Brexit will result in all your employment rights being taken away" argument has had salience in the polling and focus groups and there was a desire to defuse it. Whether a new set of employment rights is what the UK needs as it heads into Brexit is another matter altogether.0 -
Tom Newton Dunn's authority on Islington Labour voters is unconvincing. IMO they will like that policy more than any other group in the country.Scott_P said:0 -
All the political parties are moving away from sensible free market economics at the moment. (Ironically at the same time that the French have elected a decidedly laissez-faire formerly Socialist President.)TheScreamingEagles said:
I blame Mrs May.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
She's coming out with a load of left wing bollocks, and is it surprising the Lib Dems are moving even further to the left.0 -
Mr. B, a sound point, although Vettel not being able to pass might have meant he pitted earlier.
Mr. 1000, I'm not very taken with May. But, thanks to the PLP not understanding their own party's rules, the alternative is Corbyn.
*sighs*0 -
Cough ....Theuniondivvie said:In the Survation I see the NHS is by quite some distance (after Brexit) the number one issue for voters. One reason for Lab resilience?
On checking the all important Scotch subsample, there appears to be no figure for the LDs.
Is there something we should know?0 -
May clearly doesnt understand the word enhance.
Pre existing promise on living wage £9 by 2020
New promise £8.20 by 20200 -
My God! Do Tesco employ press gangs that go out and force people to work for them?Cyan said:
They don't feel strong enough at the moment to allow Tesco to impose an 18-hour working day for a fiver and a bowl of gruel. What a bunch of pinkos!FF43 said:
The important distinction is that the Conservatives nowadays are happy to burden business with social charges (minimum wage, time off etc) as long as the Government doesn't have to pay through the tax system.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.0 -
I blame Brexit. I really do.rcs1000 said:
All the political parties are moving away from sensible free market economics at the moment. (Ironically at the same time that the French have elected a decidedly laissez-faire formerly Socialist President.)TheScreamingEagles said:
I blame Mrs May.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
She's coming out with a load of left wing bollocks, and is it surprising the Lib Dems are moving even further to the left.0 -
(I'm in the Virgin Clubhouse at Heathrow, and Farron is on two of the three screens - Sky News and BBC News. It's a little freaky to be honest.)0
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It's certainly capitulating to the unions.TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
twitter.com/standardnews/status/8640678380084797440 -
Am I reading too much into this, or is Vernon Coaker worried about losing his seat?
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/8640553397292687360 -
Where a man puts the bins out ...chestnut said:
They are relics then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
It is not the 1970s any more where a man goes to work and a woman stays at home looking after kids, elderly parents etc.0 -
Tebbit on the gay marriage bill made me loathe him all over again...TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, Tebbit is such a liberalperdix said:
Tebbit et al wouldn't recognise social conservatism if it bit them in the b*m.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
Gay marriage bill may lead to 'lesbian queen and artificially inseminated heir'
Former Tory chairman Lord Tebbit also warns that legislation could allow him to marry his son to escape inheritance tax
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/may/21/tebbit-gay-marriage-lesbian-queen0 -
I liked him for his work on reforming the country in the 80s, but I loathed him ever since his frankly homophobic smears/attacks on Michael Portillo in the 2001 Tory leadership contest.rcs1000 said:
Tebbit on the gay marriage bill made me loathe him all over again...TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, Tebbit is such a liberalperdix said:
Tebbit et al wouldn't recognise social conservatism if it bit them in the b*m.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
Gay marriage bill may lead to 'lesbian queen and artificially inseminated heir'
Former Tory chairman Lord Tebbit also warns that legislation could allow him to marry his son to escape inheritance tax
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/may/21/tebbit-gay-marriage-lesbian-queen0 -
Is there no bounds to Diane Abbott's influence ?!?bigjohnowls said:May clearly doesnt understand the word enhance.
Pre existing promise on living wage £9 by 2020
New promise £8.20 by 20200 -
Undoubtedly. Brexit is about the acquis sociaux, if we are allowed to use a furrun language to describe a UKIP concept that supports Britain's return to their image of the 1950's.TheScreamingEagles said:
I blame Brexit. I really do.rcs1000 said:
All the political parties are moving away from sensible free market economics at the moment. (Ironically at the same time that the French have elected a decidedly laissez-faire formerly Socialist President.)TheScreamingEagles said:
I blame Mrs May.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
She's coming out with a load of left wing bollocks, and is it surprising the Lib Dems are moving even further to the left.0 -
Farron is still on TV. What is this madness?0
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Any change creates winners and losers, so I see your point. The trouble is I haven't seen many people coming up with new opportunities and going for them yet. (Unless you count taking short term advantage of the weak pound.) The losses are looking all too real though. And I remember the way bad news always seemed to have a knock on effect on suppliers and customers back in the eighties. If the same happens again we might be looking at some pretty bleak stories over the next couple of years. If you could give a bit of detail of exactly how flexibly applying an independent regulatory regime can create some new business I'd be interested to hear it.Casino_Royale said:
Don't get cocky. Many Leavers voted fully cognisant of the short-medium term risks.Scott_P said:
Slow hand clap...Casino_Royale said:I think the UK will take an economic and geopolitical hit for 5-10 years
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/864035126807867392
There will be some jobs, and supply chains, that cease to make sense once the UK has left the EU. However, the fundamental attractions of the UK will remain and there will be new opportunities created through new trade deals, and flexibility of applying an independent regulatory regime.
But these will take time to come to fruition, and loss aversion is a very powerful emotion.0 -
I can't fathom why the Lib Dems are even standing - this sight of SLAB & SLID allowing themselves to be steamrollered by "only we can beat the SNP here" SCON is something to behold !!
https://twitter.com/MilesBriggsMSP/status/8640281814263193610 -
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Can you smell sulphur ?rcs1000 said:Farron is still on TV. What is this madness?
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And this is what Martin Boon, ICM’s director, is saying about them.
In a week when the eagerly awaited but already much discussed manifesto’s drop, Theresa May can head into it confident that her poll lead is largely impregnable. While other polls of late have seen Labour increase its share into the 30s, (beyond the share that both Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband secured), ICM still puts Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 28% (which is up one-point compared to the Guardian’s last poll earlier this month.
The question as to why ICM has consistently lower Labour shares than other pollster is fairly easy to identify – our turnout weighting mechanism is doing exactly the job we intended it to, reducing the power in the sample of those historically less likely to vote in general elections, and doing the reverse for those typically most likely to vote. Other methodological adjustments do, of course, leave their own imprint - sometimes underpinning and sometimes counter-balancing the turnout weight, but turnout weighting is undoubtedly pivotal to our headline numbers.0 -
Mr. Eagles, reminded me of a line I heard on Twitter the other day.
How do you view lesbian relationships?
In HD.
[Alas, too modern for me to steal/be inspired by for Sir Edric].0 -
No it doesn't. It gives them a minority pool of voters to fish in, where (as I've pointed out) the divisions are far more important than what unites them. The policy of allowing businesses to run NHS services is the third priority for New Britain and the second priority for Free Liberals, and the top policy opposed by Progressives. Increasing income tax for higher earners is the second priority for Progressives and the fourth priority for Swing Voters, and the top policy opposed by New Britain. So you can't have a economic or a health policy, because you'll lose voters.FF43 said:The Lib Dems won't be 100% successful in turning these categories of voters to them. It gives them a large pool of voters to fish in with a clear message of internationalism, openness and aspiration.
But that's child's play compared to the electoral alliance you're proposing for the Lib Dems. You'd be startled as to how little you have to do to persuade people you're putting Britain first- the prevalence of working-class Conservatism from the 1860s onwards, much of which was based on perceived patriotism, shows that. And when your opponents abandon any intention of contesting that ground, you barely have to do anything at all.FF43 said:The Conservatives have a larger pool but if they are going to hang onto their "Our Britain" voters they will need to maintain a messaging of national exceptionalism.
It's less than they got in 1983, when they had fewer than 30 seats. That kind of niche, middle/upper-class party is a recipe for electoral irrelevance: as the Lib Dems have found out, and as Labour are now discovering.FF43 said:As things stand and assuming the Lib Dems can pick up at least half of that pool and some other votes here and there, they should be good for 20% of the electorate, which is twice what they have now.
Absolutely not. It's highly likely that over the next ten years we'll see Common Sense and Our Britain grow as a proportion of the electorate. After all, Community is basically Our Britain with a bit of class envy, while Common Sense is New Britain and Free Liberals after middle age. On top of that, you then have to factor in the proportion of the population who will stick with their party through blind loyalty even when they don't represent their views. In other words, your realignment is as likely to get the Conservatives to 55% as to get the Lib Dems to 30%.FF43 said:The pools aren't fixed in number of adherents.
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Sleazy Broken Tories On The (Land)SlideScott_P said:0 -
Conservatives: 48% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM a week ago)
Labour: 28% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 10% (up 1)
Ukip: 6% (no change)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Conservative lead: 20 points (down 2)
TMICIPM (BAL)0 -
The Survation poll released last week was conducted on a UK - rather than GB - basis. To arrive at the GB equivalent the vote shares of both Labour and Tories need to be adjusted upwards by circa 1%.0
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But it is better the SNP candidate wins than a Tory. You know a good Tory is a ...............calum said:I can't fathom why the Lib Dems are even standing - this sight of SLAB & SLID allowing themselves to be steamrollered by "only we can beat the SNP here" SCON is something to behold !!
https://twitter.com/MilesBriggsMSP/status/864028181426319361
Her standing in a small reduces the chance of the SCON winning. She should stay in.0 -
For all that Labour seem to be edging up (albeit it from catastrophic polling lows), the Tory numbers are remarkably static. PMTM called the election, their averages immediately jumped to 47%, and haven't moved since.0
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Lord Tebbit also used to think a homosexual shouldn't/couldn't be Home Secretary.
Yes, Lord Tebbit is such a liberal, if you compare him to Sammy Wilson.0 -
Takes me back to the heady days of 2010. Blue down a point or two week after week to a tory chorus of "MOE".JackW said:
Sleazy Broken Tories On The (Land)SlideScott_P said:
I'm loving "pitted". I trust that after pitting, he podiumed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, a sound point, although Vettel not being able to pass might have meant he pitted earlier.
Mr. 1000, I'm not very taken with May. But, thanks to the PLP not understanding their own party's rules, the alternative is Corbyn.
*sighs*0 -
Momentum signing up to online polls after they've bet on Labour Most Seats, as part of their 'change the narrative' project?rottenborough said:
I mean the above semi-seriously.0 -
Is your target for May to GAIN 97 seats or she's a pound shop insert name here:-TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Tebbit also used to think a homosexual shouldn't/couldn't be Home Secretary.
Yes, Lord Tebbit is such a liberal, if you compare him to Sammy Wilson.
-------------0 -
Instinctively it feels about right to me. He may well do as well as Foot, however the Lib Dems and UKIP combined won't be hitting the SDP score - and therein lies the problem for Labour.rottenborough said:0 -
Mr. Z, I really dislike 'podium' or 'medal' as verbs, but 'pit' is used quite often in that regard and sounds much more normal, to me anyway.
Ben Edwards referring to pit lane, as if it's on a housing estate, rather than 'the' pit lane grates a bit too.0 -
37 billion is like 19/3 in old money. Makes people think you have calculated it & not pulled it out of your fundament. Or got it using your Abbottcus.Jason said:I think we've got to the stage now where Corbyn will start promising fantastical amounts of extra spending on just about everything. So why stop at 37 billion for the NHS? Why not 100 billion? Why not increase taxes on the rich to the old Labour rate of 90%? Why not increase corporation tax to 40%?
It looks to me like Labour have completely lost touch with reality.
0 -
ICM thread this week - wasn't worth it last week obviously...?0
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Tebbit is the personification of the 'nasty party'rcs1000 said:
Tebbit on the gay marriage bill made me loathe him all over again...TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, Tebbit is such a liberalperdix said:
Tebbit et al wouldn't recognise social conservatism if it bit them in the b*m.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah right, that's why Lord Tebbit and other Thatcherites have been criticising Mrs May for this sort of stuff.chestnut said:May's year off for families to provide social care is hardly left wing. It's old style social conservatism.
Families to care for their elders.
Gay marriage bill may lead to 'lesbian queen and artificially inseminated heir'
Former Tory chairman Lord Tebbit also warns that legislation could allow him to marry his son to escape inheritance tax
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/may/21/tebbit-gay-marriage-lesbian-queen0 -
I'm stealing thatMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, reminded me of a line I heard on Twitter the other day.
How do you view lesbian relationships?
In HD.
[Alas, too modern for me to steal/be inspired by for Sir Edric].
0 -
Labour should benefit a couple of points from the Greens.sarissa said:
Out of date - Scottish Greens not standing.Scott_P said:
https://greens.scot/news/our-targeted-campaign-to-elect-patrick-harvie-as-scotland-s-first-green-mp0 -
They say pit road in stateside.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Z, I really dislike 'podium' or 'medal' as verbs, but 'pit' is used quite often in that regard and sounds much more normal, to me anyway.
Ben Edwards referring to pit lane, as if it's on a housing estate, rather than 'the' pit lane grates a bit too.0 -
She has to win over 100 seats to be comparable to Dave.nunu said:
Is your target for May to GAIN 97 seats or she's a pound shop insert name here:-TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Tebbit also used to think a homosexual shouldn't/couldn't be Home Secretary.
Yes, Lord Tebbit is such a liberal, if you compare him to Sammy Wilson.
-------------
I bought the Tories at 378 and I'm not looking to close out just yet.
My faith in the Tories doing well on June 8th is exclusively down to Sir Lynton, Corbyn, and brilliant Tory candidates like Aaron Bell.0 -
I know it's a pain but we, the people, get a vote too. And we like our free markets to come regulated, and for workers to have rights. We're prepared for the country to be a little poorer to make it a little fairer. The PM seems to have latched on to some of that and it's just possible we're about to see some old fashioned pre-Thatcher, proper conservatism at work.rcs1000 said:
All the political parties are moving away from sensible free market economics at the moment. (Ironically at the same time that the French have elected a decidedly laissez-faire formerly Socialist President.)TheScreamingEagles said:
I blame Mrs May.DavidL said:
It's embarrassing. Public ownership is going to resolve the disputes with the Unions about guards etc how exactly? With more public money?TheScreamingEagles said:Is this nationalisation ?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/864067838008479744
She's coming out with a load of left wing bollocks, and is it surprising the Lib Dems are moving even further to the left.
Or she may be lying, or prevented from doing so by the Thatcherites. We'll see.0 -
In modern English there is no noun that cannot be verbed!Ishmael_Z said:
Takes me back to the heady days of 2010. Blue down a point or two week after week to a tory chorus of "MOE".JackW said:
Sleazy Broken Tories On The (Land)SlideScott_P said:
I'm loving "pitted". I trust that after pitting, he podiumed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, a sound point, although Vettel not being able to pass might have meant he pitted earlier.
Mr. 1000, I'm not very taken with May. But, thanks to the PLP not understanding their own party's rules, the alternative is Corbyn.
*sighs* 0 -
Labour's No.1 Election Promise.Jason said:I think we've got to the stage now where Corbyn will start promising fantastical amounts of extra spending on just about everything. So why stop at 37 billion for the NHS? Why not 100 billion? Why not increase taxes on the rich to the old Labour rate of 90%? Why not increase corporation tax to 40%?
It looks to me like Labour have completely lost touch with reality.
We are NOT going to WIN.0 -
That joke is a decade old. You need to update the answer with either 'In 4K Ultra HD or 3D'GeoffM said:
I'm stealing thatMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, reminded me of a line I heard on Twitter the other day.
How do you view lesbian relationships?
In HD.
[Alas, too modern for me to steal/be inspired by for Sir Edric].0 -
He's my parents MP, I hope there are no signs on the way up there when i go this weekend as that colour scheme may blind me.TheScreamingEagles said:Am I reading too much into this, or is Vernon Coaker worried about losing his seat?
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/8640553397292687360 -
No ones complaining. Corbyn is in self destruct mode for Labour.. His 37 billion is uncosted bollocks. I bet Diane worked it out for him.NickPalmer said:
CCHQ made clear that their strategy was to yield Corbyn lots of airtime and deliberately refrain from newsworthy stuff in the hope that he'd implode. No good complaining now.LadyBucket said:I hope CCHQ are monitoring the amount of coverage Jeremy Corbyn is getting. He was on three channels, Victoria Derbyshire, Parliament and SKY, this morning, for quite some considerable time. BBC had a breaking news headline, citing the extra 37 bn for the NHS.
"Events, events, dear boy".0 -
Nah. Doing a thread on huge Tory leads is like doing a thread on 'water is wet'Scrapheap_as_was said:ICM thread this week - wasn't worth it last week obviously...?
0 -
During the EURef those who never vote or haven't voted since Thatcher helped LEAVE to win, infact almost all of the increase in turnout was LEAVE voters. IF this election is made out to be all about Brexit prehaps normally lower turnout groups (such as young blue collar voters) will turnout for this GE whereas they normally wouldn't?TheScreamingEagles said:And this is what Martin Boon, ICM’s director, is saying about them.
In a week when the eagerly awaited but already much discussed manifesto’s drop, Theresa May can head into it confident that her poll lead is largely impregnable. While other polls of late have seen Labour increase its share into the 30s, (beyond the share that both Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband secured), ICM still puts Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 28% (which is up one-point compared to the Guardian’s last poll earlier this month.
The question as to why ICM has consistently lower Labour shares than other pollster is fairly easy to identify – our turnout weighting mechanism is doing exactly the job we intended it to, reducing the power in the sample of those historically less likely to vote in general elections, and doing the reverse for those typically most likely to vote. Other methodological adjustments do, of course, leave their own imprint - sometimes underpinning and sometimes counter-balancing the turnout weight, but turnout weighting is undoubtedly pivotal to our headline numbers.
Therefore ICM's headline figures could be right by accident. As if more young blue collar voters were included they would further depress the labour vote and increase the tory one.0 -
To my mind, a forced choice between a centre right candidate who wants to pull out of the UK and a slightly further to the right candidate who wants to pull out of Europe is a profoundly depressing thing. I think the consequences of Tory nationalism are likely to be less disastrous than Scottish nationalism, but it's still a choice between two evils. The Lib Dems offer a more positive option to voters who can't stomach putting their crosses next to any kind of nationalist.calum said:I can't fathom why the Lib Dems are even standing - this sight of SLAB & SLID allowing themselves to be steamrollered by "only we can beat the SNP here" SCON is something to behold !!
https://twitter.com/MilesBriggsMSP/status/864028181426319361
The boot's on the other foot in the likes of Edinburgh West etc.0 -
Excellent. Joke theft is duly upgraded.TheScreamingEagles said:
That joke is a decade old. You need to update the answer with either 'In 4K Ultra HD or 3D'GeoffM said:
I'm stealing thatMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, reminded me of a line I heard on Twitter the other day.
How do you view lesbian relationships?
In HD.
[Alas, too modern for me to steal/be inspired by for Sir Edric].0 -
I can almost imagine a hypothetical future HoC with 600 Tory MPs, you still lauding Camborne and ignoring the ability of Mrs May to unite the right, rather than divide it.....TheScreamingEagles said:
She has to win over 100 seats to be comparable to Dave.nunu said:
Is your target for May to GAIN 97 seats or she's a pound shop insert name here:-TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Tebbit also used to think a homosexual shouldn't/couldn't be Home Secretary.
Yes, Lord Tebbit is such a liberal, if you compare him to Sammy Wilson.
-------------
I bought the Tories at 378 and I'm not looking to close out just yet.
My faith in the Tories doing well on June 8th is exclusively down to Sir Lynton, Corbyn, and brilliant Tory candidates like Aaron Bell. 0 -
not even gold-infused water?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah. Doing a thread on huge Tory leads is like doing a thread on 'water is wet'Scrapheap_as_was said:ICM thread this week - wasn't worth it last week obviously...?
0 -
Conservatives promised an extra £18 billion a year for the NHS, though they phrased it as £350 million a week.Jason said:I think we've got to the stage now where Corbyn will start promising fantastical amounts of extra spending on just about everything. So why stop at 37 billion for the NHS? Why not 100 billion? Why not increase taxes on the rich to the old Labour rate of 90%? Why not increase corporation tax to 40%?
It looks to me like Labour have completely lost touch with reality.0 -
In 2010, Lab+Con polled 69% in the North. In this weekend's subsamples, the figure is hovering around 90%.
Survation have the Lib Dems on 0% in Scotland. UKIP are also on zero in Wales.
We are almost back to two party politics.0 -
The Tories are not complaining, quite the opposite. The more people see of Jezza, the fewer votes Labour receives.NickPalmer said:
CCHQ made clear that their strategy was to yield Corbyn lots of airtime and deliberately refrain from newsworthy stuff in the hope that he'd implode. No good complaining now.LadyBucket said:I hope CCHQ are monitoring the amount of coverage Jeremy Corbyn is getting. He was on three channels, Victoria Derbyshire, Parliament and SKY, this morning, for quite some considerable time. BBC had a breaking news headline, citing the extra 37 bn for the NHS.
"Events, events, dear boy".0 -
The thing which upsets me during the Olympics is "he is now in silver medal position".Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Z, I really dislike 'podium' or 'medal' as verbs, but 'pit' is used quite often in that regard and sounds much more normal, to me anyway.
Ben Edwards referring to pit lane, as if it's on a housing estate, rather than 'the' pit lane grates a bit too.
Or "second", as we normally call it.0 -
it feels right to me too. Also NHS being the second biggest issue also chimes with anecdotes from family and friends, leading me to believe Labour wont go below 27%.Pulpstar said:
Instinctively it feels about right to me. He may well do as well as Foot, however the Lib Dems and UKIP combined won't be hitting the SDP score - and therein lies the problem for Labour.rottenborough said:0
