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My daft as a brush cockapoo looks regal against Corbyn :-)bobajobPB said:
This bowing and scraping over May is almost monarchist in its sycophancy. I blame Corbyn - against him she does look almost regal, admittedly.Tykejohnno said:I see the con's going big on Theresa in the political broadcast tonight.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08qfvr5/party-election-broadcasts-conservative-party-general-election0 -
PB Tories 4 Corbyn: just rejoice at this news!!nunu said:
https://twitter.com/HassamIftikhar/status/861725898407632900HYUFD said:twitter.com/britainelects/status/861724567152316416
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The Conservative strategy could not be simpler. Put forward an image of being pro Leave and sweep up the UKIP vote. And it's working.HYUFD said:
Conservatives have taken 9/10% of the electorate this way so far. I expect them to take a few more percent from UKIP yet.
May is ruthless when it comes to politics.
Let's hope she is as ruthless about running the country in a competent and efficient way.
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O/T Next French PM market - Sorry long post
Macron will announce his PM on Monday morning.
Here are my thoughts on the current prices on Betfair:
- Pascal Lamy 10.0 : ok price, a bit low: Lamy has a great international profile but pretty unlikely PM as he has never been either a MP or a minister
- Le Drian 7.2 : the price is too low, as Le Drian will keep the Defence ministry if he wants but refuses to leave the socialist party, thus could not lead the En marche campaign for the parliamentary election
- Philippe 4.1 : very good price, as the current rumor in Paris is that he is the favorite. He is a centre-right republicain, was Juppé's spokesman, is reasonably young (47), a former MP and current Le Havre mayor.
- Idrac 4.4: another good price. Former (low-rank) Chirac and Sarkozy minister, former CEO of the Paris metro and of the French railways. Probably the most experienced and credible female candidate from the Macron camp.
- Bayrou 6.2: the price is too low. He had a key role in the campaign but is hated by most of the right since he supported Hollande in 2012.
- Lagarde 16 : would be the perfect candidate if she had not been convicted for "negligence" regarding a payment to a controversial businessman a few months ago.
- Le Maire 10: ok price. He would clearly like to be chosen but waited Sunday night to offer his services and strongly criticized Macron a few months back.
- Goulard 5.2 : price a bit too low. She will enter the government but probably get the Foreign Affairs. A MEP (and former advisor to Prodi in Brussels) she is Macron's european affairs specialist. She never had any National parliamentary mandate.
- Borloo 10 : has left politics 3 years ago for "medical reasons" (liquid lunches mostly). He is popular but joined Macron very late and is considered unreliable.
- Ferrand 5 : the price is too low The ultimate insider of the campaign but almost totally unknown by the general public.
- Collomb 10 : I don't see it. He is the Lyon mayor and first fan of Macron but he seems too old (70).
- Barbaroux 20 Schiappa 25 Griveau 25: Who?
- Royal 21 : hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
- Malek Boutih 20 : The price seems right. The choice of this son of Algerian parents who grew up in a shanty town would be a stunning development. But he is quite controversial due to his strong denunciation of any complacency towards radical islam.
- Valls 34 / Sapin 25 / Touraine 25 / Taubira 25 Cazeneuve 25 : I don't think that Macron is suicidal enough to choose a pillar of the Hollande team
- Kosciusko-Morizet 50 : She ticks many boxes (woman, 43, very centrist and "modern" image, former Mp and Minister) but has publicly declined the openings from the Macron camp.
In summary my favorites are Philippe and Idrac and I backed both0 -
Why isn't Corbyn taking the Lib Dem vote?nunu said:0 -
Sorry, are you thinking that is me?David_Evershed said:
Why isn't Corbyn taking the Lib Dem vote?nunu said:0 -
"Jeremy Corbyn says he will not quit as Labour leader even it loses the election"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-not-quit-labour-election-loss-win-general-vote-a7725311.html0 -
It's not Survation's first poll of the GE campaign.
There was a Survation (Mail on Sunday) just after the GE was announced which was:
40/29/11/11/4/2
That was a far lower Con lead than other polls released that Saturday night - it was the night of the ComRes 50 for Con.0 -
Unless this is a UK - rather than a GB - poll the change figures are wrong. On a GB basis the Tories are + 9 and Labour is - 1.Also UKIP are - 8.Nemtynakht said:0 -
Britain elects has various May/Corbyn questions from Survation.
May leads on them all - even including the NHS and "fairer society":
https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
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Survation fieldwork was 5/6 May - so not as up to date as ICM/Guardian.0
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Survation UKIP voters - ie people still saying UKIP in this poll - best PM:
May - 85
Corbyn - 6
Implies that where no UKIP candidate literally almost all the remaining UKIP vote will go Con. That's another 5% in this poll - which would give Con 47 + 5 = 52.0 -
The Survation notes do not make sense. It is described as a GB poll but the changes shown do not match the 2015 GB election % vote shares!0
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How about "safe and secure society"?MikeL said:Britain elects has various May/Corbyn questions from Survation.
May leads on them all - even including the NHS and "fairer society":
https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
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Survation interviewed 1005 GB residents aged 18+justin124 said:
Unless this is a UK - rather than a GB - poll the change figures are wrong. On a GB basis the Tories are + 9 and Labour is - 1.Also UKIP are - 8.Nemtynakht said:
http://survation.com/con-lead-lab-17-points-amid-ukip-decline-new-polling-series-good-morning-britain/0 -
Vote Shares 2015 GE
GB / UK
Con: 37.7 / 36.8
Lab: 31.2 / 30.4
LibD: 8.1 / 7.9
UKIP: 12.9 / 12.6
SNP: 4.9 / 4.7
House of Commons Library0 -
Whoever made the graph on this page has used an interesting choice of color...
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/the-tories-hit-their-highest-poll-lead-since-1983/0 -
Nope, they had one wuth fieldwork ending 22nd Apr:CarlottaVance said:
As its Survation's first poll of the GE that's why they report vs the GE result:RobD said:
No, it's a crappy tweet that reports changes relative to the previous GE.HYUFD said:
Looks a possibility, goodnightNemtynakht said:
http://survation.com/con-lead-lab-17-points-amid-ukip-decline-new-polling-series-good-morning-britain/
Con 40
Lab 29
LD 11
UKIP 110 -
Now it is safe... new thread
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Yes - that's right.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nope, they had one wuth fieldwork ending 22nd Apr:CarlottaVance said:
As its Survation's first poll of the GE that's why they report vs the GE result:RobD said:
No, it's a crappy tweet that reports changes relative to the previous GE.HYUFD said:
Looks a possibility, goodnightNemtynakht said:
http://survation.com/con-lead-lab-17-points-amid-ukip-decline-new-polling-series-good-morning-britain/
Con 40
Lab 29
LD 11
UKIP 11
But I think what Survation are saying is this is their first poll with this telephone methodology - and it's the first poll in a series for ITV's Good Morning Britain.
Anyway, it's good news as it looks as if this will be another regular poll.0 -
The first line of that spreadsheet is wrong, the Lib Dems did not record a 15% surge in Aberdeen.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/iainmcgill/status/861699550460956672chrisb said:"The findings are based on an analysis by the Scottish Conservatives of first preference votes from last week's council elections"Hmm...
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Looking objectively I reckon the Lib Dems could lose 3- 4 seats and gain the odd one or two in Scotland. Spread say 3-7.0
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