politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the
Comments
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The sympathy shag vote, to stop Mrs May giving a silly majority/save LabourFrancisUrquhart said:
"A safe assumption has now turned into something close to certainty that Mrs May will stay in No 10, with an increased majority, and we can also be reasonably sure Jeremy Corbyn will not be leader for long. Weirdly, this helps him get more votes."TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html
Oh really.....
See, points 2,3, and 4 here
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/0 -
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
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Depeche Mode filmed their 1989 video to Personal Jesus in Spain!Charles said:
It happened during the missing 30 years....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why isn't this mentioned in The Bible?Charles said:
Of course. With Joseph of Arimathea. Went to GlastonburyPaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Given where this story all started from, I don't share your confidence.SquareRoot said:
Charges seem unlikely especIally to mps..TheScreamingEagles said:
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.Bufton_Tufton said:'Daily Mirror' on the case now - not exactly a neutral source, but it does sound if they have some firm information.
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-10382571
I agree with TSE- i live in Thanet S -this story has legsSquareRoot said:
I was thinking about Marquee Mark,s comments.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given where this story all started from, I don't share your confidence.SquareRoot said:
Charges seem unlikely especIally to mps..TheScreamingEagles said:
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.Bufton_Tufton said:'Daily Mirror' on the case now - not exactly a neutral source, but it does sound if they have some firm information.
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-103825710 -
It means anything that the 'liberal elite' don't like - and as such has no meaning at all and so can be safely ignored along with racist, xenophobe, islamophobe, corbynophobe, little-englander, neocon, lepenophile etc.JonnyJimmy said:Does 'fascism' now mean 'wanting immigration controls'?
Pretty well all European countries have immigration controls. Some work better than others.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11013786/France-becoming-weak-link-in-European-migration-control-as-police-warn-of-alarming-rise-in-illegal-migrants.html0 -
My point was about Jezza going....he appears to be making quite clear he intends to nothing of the sort. I wonder what all Polly Nose Pegs Labour voters will think?TheScreamingEagles said:
The sympathy shag vote, to stop Mrs May giving a silly majority/save LabourFrancisUrquhart said:
"A safe assumption has now turned into something close to certainty that Mrs May will stay in No 10, with an increased majority, and we can also be reasonably sure Jeremy Corbyn will not be leader for long. Weirdly, this helps him get more votes."TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html
Oh really.....
See, points 2,3, and 4 here
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/0 -
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They know how toxic Corbyn is. Sack up and do something about it you cowards.
https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/8616914661915852800 -
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I hate Theresa May. She's trying to topple Richard Burgon, we need him in Parliament, he should be Corbyn's replacement.
Mr Burgon, who nominated Mr Corbyn in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has failed to reference Mr Corbyn once in his four page campaign leaflet.
He has instead included a photograph of himself stood alongside the shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and adopted the slogan ‘Putting East Leeds First’.
His constituency of Leeds East, where he has a 12,533 majority, is one of Theresa May's key target seats in June's election.
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I've heard they even let people with red shoes into Fen Poly.Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
Wouldn't happen at good old Cowley Tech.0 -
My apologies for misunderstanding you.FrancisUrquhart said:
My point was about Jezza going....he appears to be making quite clear he intends to nothing of the sort. I wonder what all Polly Nose Pegs Labour voters will think?TheScreamingEagles said:
The sympathy shag vote, to stop Mrs May giving a silly majority/save LabourFrancisUrquhart said:
"A safe assumption has now turned into something close to certainty that Mrs May will stay in No 10, with an increased majority, and we can also be reasonably sure Jeremy Corbyn will not be leader for long. Weirdly, this helps him get more votes."TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html
Oh really.....
See, points 2,3, and 4 here
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/0 -
If I credited Corbyn with any guile I would say that his ludicrous statement that he will go on and on was designed to spark a mid campaign rebellion from the PLP so the absurd Milne can then blame the inevitable election smashing on them. But that would be too clever by half. As it is, Corbyn will be challenged and if he wins the challenge the party will split. So be it. Five years is long enough to build a party. Just look at Macron!0
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In a few weeks’ time, the full horror or Labour’s predicament will be revealed and the party will begin the mother of all internal wars:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/05/08/the-state-of-labour-post-anger-pre-recrimination/#more-21574
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Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
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A lot of my Leftie mates seem to be leaning that way, which I think unwise as a vote for Labour will be interpreted as a vote for Corbyn. What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html0 -
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Cowley Tech let in David Miliband with 3 Bs and a D, and also Jeffrey Archer.Mortimer said:
I've heard they even let people with red shoes into Fen Poly.Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
Wouldn't happen at good old Cowley Tech.
Just saying.0 -
The Greens standing aside helps the SNP.
The Greens standing aside helps Lib Dems vs Tories.
I'm not convinced the Lib Dems standing aside in Brighton will necessarily help Lucas...
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Probably more to save their £500.00Scott_P said:How worried is Angus Robertson?
Apparent theSNPs little helpersGreens have agreed not to stand against him0 -
"Standing alongside", surely, Mr Grammar Centurion!TheScreamingEagles said:I hate Theresa May. She's trying to topple Richard Burgon, we need him in Parliament, he should be Corbyn's replacement.
Mr Burgon, who nominated Mr Corbyn in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has failed to reference Mr Corbyn once in his four page campaign leaflet.
He has instead included a photograph of himself stood alongside the shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and adopted the slogan ‘Putting East Leeds First’.
His constituency of Leeds East, where he has a 12,533 majority, is one of Theresa May's key target seats in June's election.0 -
As a non legal expert, is the CPS expected to bring charges in cases that it thinks they will win, or where they think the potential defendant is guilty?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
Guilt can be exceedingly difficult to prove and the two are very different.0 -
Isn't it "if it is in the public interest"?philiph said:
As a non legal expert, is the CPS expected to bring charges in cases that it thinks they will win, or where they think the potential defendant is guilty?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
Guilt can be exceedingly difficult to prove and the two are very different.0 -
This should explain it better than I canphiliph said:
As a non legal expert, is the CPS expected to bring charges in cases that it thinks they will win, or where they think the potential defendant is guilty?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
Guilt can be exceedingly difficult to prove and the two are very different.
Here's one of the tests.
The evidential test
The prosecutor must first decide whether or not there is enough evidence against the defendant for a realistic prospect of conviction.
This means that the magistrates or jury are more likely than not to convict the defendant of the charge. If there is not a realistic prospect of conviction, the case must not go ahead, no matter how important or serious it may be.
It is the duty of every Crown Prosecutor to make sure that the right person is prosecuted for the right offence. In doing so, Crown Prosecutors must always act in the interests of justice and not only for the purpose of obtaining a conviction
https://www.cps.gov.uk/victims_witnesses/reporting_a_crime/decision_to_charge.html0 -
Certainly:SandyRentool said:
Could we have a definition of 'near-perfect' please Mr N?Richard_Nabavi said:progressive adjective> pro·gres·sive \prə-ˈgre-siv\
(Of a political party) : Convinced of its own moral superiority, especially over the Conservative Party; hypocritical.
Near perfect: adjective
Of a Chancellor's macro-economic policy: Conducive to low unemployment and growth whilst rapidly improving the fiscal position; un-Brownian.0 -
I have come to the conclusion that a vote for Labour is a vote for Corbyn's cronies (Milne and McDonnell), and one vote closer to them staying propping the old fool up...bobajobPB said:
A lot of my Leftie mates seem to be leaning that way, which I think unwise as a vote for Labour will be interpreted as a vote for Corbyn. What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html
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Three Quidder
Indeed.
But as your definition of bullying means asking people to make election predictions rather than trolling; and smearing, quoting polls; you might have a problem with crying wolf.0 -
"Extensive trade links from mid 50s BC onwards" doesn't justify "so probably before that as well", because of rather important events in 55 and 54 BC. And, again, trade links don't imply travels from one end of the chain to the other. She presumably simply misdates Caesar's invasion by a few centuries, since she says "centurions" rather than "traders" (and also thinks centurion just means soldier, in the absence of any argument why centurions are more likely to be black than other ranks are).Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?0 -
Can we rewind... Leeds East - key target?!TheScreamingEagles said:I hate Theresa May. She's trying to topple Richard Burgon, we need him in Parliament, he should be Corbyn's replacement.
Mr Burgon, who nominated Mr Corbyn in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has failed to reference Mr Corbyn once in his four page campaign leaflet.
He has instead included a photograph of himself stood alongside the shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and adopted the slogan ‘Putting East Leeds First’.
His constituency of Leeds East, where he has a 12,533 majority, is one of Theresa May's key target seats in June's election.0 -
Near perfect: adjectiveRichard_Nabavi said:
Certainly:SandyRentool said:
Could we have a definition of 'near-perfect' please Mr N?Richard_Nabavi said:progressive adjective> pro·gres·sive \prə-ˈgre-siv\
(Of a political party) : Convinced of its own moral superiority, especially over the Conservative Party; hypocritical.
Of politicians: the ability to hold down half a dozen jobs simultaneously.0 -
According to The Telegraph and Mrs May.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Can we rewind... Leeds East - key target?!TheScreamingEagles said:I hate Theresa May. She's trying to topple Richard Burgon, we need him in Parliament, he should be Corbyn's replacement.
Mr Burgon, who nominated Mr Corbyn in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has failed to reference Mr Corbyn once in his four page campaign leaflet.
He has instead included a photograph of himself stood alongside the shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and adopted the slogan ‘Putting East Leeds First’.
His constituency of Leeds East, where he has a 12,533 majority, is one of Theresa May's key target seats in June's election.0 -
That's the problem. But the collective Leftie view seems to be that they don't want to destroy the party/give May a blank cheque.tyson said:
I have come to the conclusion that a vote for Labour is a vote for Corbyn's cronies (Milne and McDonnell), and one vote closer to them staying propping the old fool up...bobajobPB said:
A lot of my Leftie mates seem to be leaning that way, which I think unwise as a vote for Labour will be interpreted as a vote for Corbyn. What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html0 -
i really want to know, from one of our recent resident experts on fascism (you know who you are, Meeks et al.), how does one qualify as a fascist beyond wanting controls on immigration? That seems to be your absurd bar for it..0
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No, no, no. You have made the schoolboy error of believing what Jeffrey archer says. He attended a teacher training course or something which took place during the long vacation at Brasenose; he was never a member of the university.TheScreamingEagles said:
Cowley Tech let in David Miliband with 3 Bs and a D, and also Jeffrey Archer.Mortimer said:
I've heard they even let people with red shoes into Fen Poly.Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
Wouldn't happen at good old Cowley Tech.
Just saying.0 -
If it is entirely within the box, a good agent will argue that it is expression of a clear preference and that the vote should stand.bobajobPB said:What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?
I've argued that a quickly drawn phallus is a valid vote...
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Amusing 2010 Lib Dem vote that collapsed there and reappeared as UKIP in 2015 !TheWhiteRabbit said:
Can we rewind... Leeds East - key target?!TheScreamingEagles said:I hate Theresa May. She's trying to topple Richard Burgon, we need him in Parliament, he should be Corbyn's replacement.
Mr Burgon, who nominated Mr Corbyn in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has failed to reference Mr Corbyn once in his four page campaign leaflet.
He has instead included a photograph of himself stood alongside the shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and adopted the slogan ‘Putting East Leeds First’.
His constituency of Leeds East, where he has a 12,533 majority, is one of Theresa May's key target seats in June's election.
Tories might get 35% there but looks to far to me.0 -
Has anyone told them that?TheScreamingEagles said:Crown Prosecutors must always act in the interests of justice and not only for the purpose of obtaining a conviction
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She has stopped off there on her campaign tour. Of all the places she's stopped at, I think it's the one with the biggest swing required to take it.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to The Telegraph and Mrs May.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Can we rewind... Leeds East - key target?!TheScreamingEagles said:I hate Theresa May. She's trying to topple Richard Burgon, we need him in Parliament, he should be Corbyn's replacement.
Mr Burgon, who nominated Mr Corbyn in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has failed to reference Mr Corbyn once in his four page campaign leaflet.
He has instead included a photograph of himself stood alongside the shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and adopted the slogan ‘Putting East Leeds First’.
His constituency of Leeds East, where he has a 12,533 majority, is one of Theresa May's key target seats in June's election.0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32693485RobinWiggs said:
If it is entirely within the box, a good agent will argue that it is expression of a clear preference and that the vote should stand.bobajobPB said:What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?
I've argued that a quickly drawn phallus is a valid vote...0 -
Given your fondness of my favoured Conservative leader, I suspect you're a nats whisker away from voting Tory....tyson said:
I have come to the conclusion that a vote for Labour is a vote for Corbyn's cronies (Milne and McDonnell), and one vote closer to them staying propping the old fool up...bobajobPB said:
A lot of my Leftie mates seem to be leaning that way, which I think unwise as a vote for Labour will be interpreted as a vote for Corbyn. What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html
I have to say that unless Labour are thrashed the hard ridiculous left will hang on. I find that outrageous. It would also be a travesty if Corbyn in any way, shape, manner or form beat Michael Foot, who was on comparison reasonable, very intelligent, a magnificent orator and indeed a man of integrity, Corbyn is none of those and he deserves to lose and lose very very badly.0 -
Repeatedly demanding a particular person appears so you can have a go at them is bullying.bobajobPB said:Three Quidder
Indeed.
But as your definition of bullying means asking people to make election predictions rather than trolling; and smearing, quoting polls; you might have a problem with crying wolf.
Misleadingly partially quoting polls to make a group you disagree with look bad is smearing.
Hope this helps.0 -
From WP:Ishmael_Z said:
"Extensive trade links from mid 50s BC onwards" doesn't justify "so probably before that as well", because of rather important events in 55 and 54 BC. And, again, trade links don't imply travels from one end of the chain to the other. She presumably simply misdates Caesar's invasion by a few centuries, since she says "centurions" rather than "traders" (and also thinks centurion just means soldier, in the absence of any argument why centurions are more likely to be black than other ranks are).Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.Baskerville said:
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
There is evidence of the presence of people from Romanised North Africa in Roman Britain. Archaeological inscriptions suggest that most of these residents were involved with the military. However, some were in the upper echelons of society. Analysis of a skull found in a Roman grave in Yorkshire indicated that it belonged to a mixed-race female. Her sarcophagus was made of stone and also contained a jet bracelet and an ivory bangle, indicating great wealth for the time.
In 2007, scientists found the rare paternal haplogroup A1 in several living British men with Yorkshire surnames. This clade is today almost exclusively found among males in West Africa, where it is also rare. The haplogroup is thus thought to have been brought to Britain either through enlisted soldiers during Roman Britain, or via the slave trade. Some of the individuals who arrived through the slave route attained a very high social rank and married into the general population.0 -
RobinWiggs said:
If it is entirely within the box, a good agent will argue that it is expression of a clear preference and that the vote should stand.bobajobPB said:What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?
I've argued that a quickly drawn phallus is a valid vote...RobinWiggs said:
If it is entirely within the box, a good agent will argue that it is expression of a clear preference and that the vote should stand.bobajobPB said:What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?
I've argued that a quickly drawn phallus is a valid vote...
Surely there is the basis of a voting campaign right there? Love Labour, Hate Corbyn? Join our campaign to write Corbyn Is A Massive Twat in the Labour box.RobinWiggs said:
If it is entirely within the box, a good agent will argue that it is expression of a clear preference and that the vote should stand.bobajobPB said:What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?
I've argued that a quickly drawn phallus is a valid vote...0 -
It'd be the shock of the night !chrisb said:
She has stopped off there on her campaign tour. Of all the places she's stopped at, I think it's the one with the biggest swing required to take it.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to The Telegraph and Mrs May.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Can we rewind... Leeds East - key target?!TheScreamingEagles said:I hate Theresa May. She's trying to topple Richard Burgon, we need him in Parliament, he should be Corbyn's replacement.
Mr Burgon, who nominated Mr Corbyn in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has failed to reference Mr Corbyn once in his four page campaign leaflet.
He has instead included a photograph of himself stood alongside the shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and adopted the slogan ‘Putting East Leeds First’.
His constituency of Leeds East, where he has a 12,533 majority, is one of Theresa May's key target seats in June's election.0 -
That is a very fair point-if you were a Labour MP who was not a Corbynista, Macron's victory would be very encouraging.bobajobPB said:If I credited Corbyn with any guile I would say that his ludicrous statement that he will go on and on was designed to spark a mid campaign rebellion from the PLP so the absurd Milne can then blame the inevitable election smashing on them. But that would be too clever by half. As it is, Corbyn will be challenged and if he wins the challenge the party will split. So be it. Five years is long enough to build a party. Just look at Macron!
I know the electoral system is different but it is still encouraging.0 -
So if they do bring charges, there must be substantial evidence that there was intent to commit fraud. If so, that is extremely serious, especially if it applies to all the MPs involved. The media will be salivating over this.TheScreamingEagles said:
This should explain it better than I canphiliph said:
As a non legal expert, is the CPS expected to bring charges in cases that it thinks they will win, or where they think the potential defendant is guilty?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
Guilt can be exceedingly difficult to prove and the two are very different.
Here's one of the tests.
The evidential test
The prosecutor must first decide whether or not there is enough evidence against the defendant for a realistic prospect of conviction.
This means that the magistrates or jury are more likely than not to convict the defendant of the charge. If there is not a realistic prospect of conviction, the case must not go ahead, no matter how important or serious it may be.
It is the duty of every Crown Prosecutor to make sure that the right person is prosecuted for the right offence. In doing so, Crown Prosecutors must always act in the interests of justice and not only for the purpose of obtaining a conviction
https://www.cps.gov.uk/victims_witnesses/reporting_a_crime/decision_to_charge.html0 -
ThanksTheScreamingEagles said:
This should explain it better than I canphiliph said:
As a non legal expert, is the CPS expected to bring charges in cases that it thinks they will win, or where they think the potential defendant is guilty?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
Guilt can be exceedingly difficult to prove and the two are very different.
Here's one of the tests.
The evidential test
The prosecutor must first decide whether or not there is enough evidence against the defendant for a realistic prospect of conviction.
This means that the magistrates or jury are more likely than not to convict the defendant of the charge. If there is not a realistic prospect of conviction, the case must not go ahead, no matter how important or serious it may be.
It is the duty of every Crown Prosecutor to make sure that the right person is prosecuted for the right offence. In doing so, Crown Prosecutors must always act in the interests of justice and not only for the purpose of obtaining a conviction
https://www.cps.gov.uk/victims_witnesses/reporting_a_crime/decision_to_charge.html
That is clear and understandable, could be because there are no puns or 80s pop music references.
I wonder if those criteria are more helpful to the accused than to CPS or other parties?
It has always looked to me that the real guilt lies at Central Office, not local level. I could see a case built around the advice from central office that the EC had always accepted the battle bus costs as National expenditure in the past, so it was not to be included in local costs as overwhelmingly persuasive. I suspect the EC is guilty of allowing unacceptable practice to grow over time, and for that to become the moving line with each election to which the parties could acceptably bend the rules.
Whilst guilt of someone(or more than one) in the Tory ranks is undeniable, I could see agents and MPs building a good defense.
That, of course, is academic in terms of the bad press from charges, accusations and a hostile and aggressive press.0 -
He's priceless and has a great career outside politics to look forward to as the new lembit opikchrisb said:
She has stopped off there on her campaign tour. Of all the places she's stopped at, I think it's the one with the biggest swing required to take it.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to The Telegraph and Mrs May.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Can we rewind... Leeds East - key target?!TheScreamingEagles said:I hate Theresa May. She's trying to topple Richard Burgon, we need him in Parliament, he should be Corbyn's replacement.
Mr Burgon, who nominated Mr Corbyn in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has failed to reference Mr Corbyn once in his four page campaign leaflet.
He has instead included a photograph of himself stood alongside the shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and adopted the slogan ‘Putting East Leeds First’.
His constituency of Leeds East, where he has a 12,533 majority, is one of Theresa May's key target seats in June's election.0 -
The electoral system is not that different. It is closer to our system than it is to PR. Of all the forms of alternative electoral systems, the French is the model after FPTP I'd accept the most.RepublicanTory said:
That is a very fair point-if you were a Labour MP who was not a Corbynista, Macron's victory would be very encouraging.bobajobPB said:If I credited Corbyn with any guile I would say that his ludicrous statement that he will go on and on was designed to spark a mid campaign rebellion from the PLP so the absurd Milne can then blame the inevitable election smashing on them. But that would be too clever by half. As it is, Corbyn will be challenged and if he wins the challenge the party will split. So be it. Five years is long enough to build a party. Just look at Macron!
I know the electoral system is different but it is still encouraging.0 -
There is evidence of pre birth of Christ trading with Phoenician traders, and whilst the Roman world would have rubbed up against our shores I don't believe there is any evidence of Romans being here say pre 200 BC which is what we are talking about as Rome's empire hadn't got going by then.Ishmael_Z said:
"Extensive trade links from mid 50s BC onwards" doesn't justify "so probably before that as well", because of rather important events in 55 and 54 BC. And, again, trade links don't imply travels from one end of the chain to the other. She presumably simply misdates Caesar's invasion by a few centuries, since she says "centurions" rather than "traders" (and also thinks centurion just means soldier, in the absence of any argument why centurions are more likely to be black than other ranks are).Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?0 -
The CPS know that the Tories will win the election -are they really going to make a decision before June the 8th ?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
0 -
Leeds East? Really?0
-
Newsnight asking if Macron can succeed in making the French more like the British. A noble aspiration.
0 -
I doubt a written comment obviously negative about a candidate would qualify as a valid vote (leaving aside any considerations about identifying the voter). I believe there is case precedent about "not him" written in the box not counting.RobinWiggs said:
If it is entirely within the box, a good agent will argue that it is expression of a clear preference and that the vote should stand.bobajobPB said:What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?
I've argued that a quickly drawn phallus is a valid vote...
At least with a drawing there is a degree of ambiguity.
0 -
I asked Moniker several times to predict the French election result after he - several times - ramped and dog whistled a Le Pen victory. That is a perfectly reasonable response. It is not bullying.ThreeQuidder said:
Repeatedly demanding a particular person appears so you can have a go at them is bullying.bobajobPB said:Three Quidder
Indeed.
But as your definition of bullying means asking people to make election predictions rather than trolling; and smearing, quoting polls; you might have a problem with crying wolf.
Misleadingly partially quoting polls to make a group you disagree with look bad is smearing.
Hope this helps.0 -
Did Ummuna just endorse Jeremy Corbyn?0
-
Legally they have no choice; they have already been granted one extension and the deadlines are days away. I have no idea whether a minister could grant a further extension or not, but the political costs of doing so probably rule this out even if it could be done.RepublicanTory said:
The CPS know that the Tories will win the election -are they really going to make a decision before June the 8th ?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
0 -
0
-
They have to make a decision of Yes Charges or No Charges before the election.RepublicanTory said:
The CPS know that the Tories will win the election -are they really going to make a decision before June the 8th ?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
They could wimp out and make no decision, and then rather limply say - 'Nothing we can do, it is too late'0 -
Thanks. I now think that a split may not be that bad an outcome. Given that the splitting party will (I assume) have 100+ MPs and five years, that's not too bad a starting point.RepublicanTory said:
That is a very fair point-if you were a Labour MP who was not a Corbynista, Macron's victory would be very encouraging.bobajobPB said:If I credited Corbyn with any guile I would say that his ludicrous statement that he will go on and on was designed to spark a mid campaign rebellion from the PLP so the absurd Milne can then blame the inevitable election smashing on them. But that would be too clever by half. As it is, Corbyn will be challenged and if he wins the challenge the party will split. So be it. Five years is long enough to build a party. Just look at Macron!
I know the electoral system is different but it is still encouraging.0 -
Will you define fascist for us? I think you've been throwing it around a bit lately, and accusing fellow PBers of being fascist supporters, if memory serves (apols if I'm wrong). Surely you can quite easily tell us precisely what you mean by it?bobajobPB said:
I asked Moniker several times to predict the French election result after he - several times - ramped and dog whistled a Le Pen victory. That is a perfectly reasonable response. It is not bullying.ThreeQuidder said:
Repeatedly demanding a particular person appears so you can have a go at them is bullying.bobajobPB said:Three Quidder
Indeed.
But as your definition of bullying means asking people to make election predictions rather than trolling; and smearing, quoting polls; you might have a problem with crying wolf.
Misleadingly partially quoting polls to make a group you disagree with look bad is smearing.
Hope this helps.0 -
Without the AV-style forced run off it was close to a four-way tie between him, a loony lefty, a proto-fascist, and an apparently corrupt Conservative. Which is only encouraging up to a point...Philip_Thompson said:
The electoral system is not that different. It is closer to our system than it is to PR. Of all the forms of alternative electoral systems, the French is the model after FPTP I'd accept the most.RepublicanTory said:
That is a very fair point-if you were a Labour MP who was not a Corbynista, Macron's victory would be very encouraging.bobajobPB said:If I credited Corbyn with any guile I would say that his ludicrous statement that he will go on and on was designed to spark a mid campaign rebellion from the PLP so the absurd Milne can then blame the inevitable election smashing on them. But that would be too clever by half. As it is, Corbyn will be challenged and if he wins the challenge the party will split. So be it. Five years is long enough to build a party. Just look at Macron!
I know the electoral system is different but it is still encouraging.0 -
Hm, what's louder and more dramatic than a KLAXON?TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON*
twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/8616988885326684170 -
By the way, I feel we haven't talked about Andy Burnham's performance in the Gtr Manchester Mayoral election enough.
In some seats, he outperformed 1997 Tony Blair, including winning Altrincham & Sale West. (Hat-tip Stephen Bush)
If only....0 -
10 or more will do fine.......RobD said:
Hm, what's louder and more dramatic than a KLAXON?TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON*
twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/8616988885326684170 -
It often appears to mean 'disagrees with me'JonnyJimmy said:
Will you define fascist for us? I think you've been throwing it around a bit lately, and accusing fellow PBers of being fascist supporters, if memory serves (apols if I'm wrong). Surely you can quite easily tell us precisely what you mean by it?bobajobPB said:
I asked Moniker several times to predict the French election result after he - several times - ramped and dog whistled a Le Pen victory. That is a perfectly reasonable response. It is not bullying.ThreeQuidder said:
Repeatedly demanding a particular person appears so you can have a go at them is bullying.bobajobPB said:Three Quidder
Indeed.
But as your definition of bullying means asking people to make election predictions rather than trolling; and smearing, quoting polls; you might have a problem with crying wolf.
Misleadingly partially quoting polls to make a group you disagree with look bad is smearing.
Hope this helps.
Must be a modern definition in the Urban dictionary.
People who struggle with an alternative viewpoint are intolerant. A bit fascist, really.0 -
Jonny
I said Le Pen was a fascist.0 -
"It has always looked to me that the real guilt lies at Central Office, not local level"philiph said:
ThanksTheScreamingEagles said:
This should explain it better than I canphiliph said:
As a non legal expert, is the CPS expected to bring charges in cases that it thinks they will win, or where they think the potential defendant is guilty?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
Guilt can be exceedingly difficult to prove and the two are very different.
Here's one of the tests.
The evidential test
The prosecutor must first decide whether or not there is enough evidence against the defendant for a realistic prospect of conviction.
This means that the magistrates or jury are more likely than not to convict the defendant of the charge. If there is not a realistic prospect of conviction, the case must not go ahead, no matter how important or serious it may be.
It is the duty of every Crown Prosecutor to make sure that the right person is prosecuted for the right offence. In doing so, Crown Prosecutors must always act in the interests of justice and not only for the purpose of obtaining a conviction
https://www.cps.gov.uk/victims_witnesses/reporting_a_crime/decision_to_charge.html
That is clear and understandable, could be because there are no puns or 80s pop music references.
I wonder if those criteria are more helpful to the accused than to CPS or other parties?
It has always looked to me that the real guilt lies at Central Office, not local level. I could see a case built around the advice from central office that the EC had always accepted the battle bus costs as National expenditure in the past, so it was not to be included in local costs as overwhelmingly persuasive. I suspect the EC is guilty of allowing unacceptable practice to grow over time, and for that to become the moving line with each election to which the parties could acceptably bend the rules.
Whilst guilt of someone(or more than one) in the Tory ranks is undeniable, I could see agents and MPs building a good defense.
That, of course, is academic in terms of the bad press from charges, accusations and a hostile and aggressive press.
Which is why in certain cases the ramifications could be very serious.0 -
Now CEO of International Rescue (Archer never went to Oxford). So if he was as dense as Abbott going in, we must have added more value while he was there...TheScreamingEagles said:
Cowley Tech let in David Miliband with 3 Bs and a D, and also Jeffrey Archer.Mortimer said:
I've heard they even let people with red shoes into Fen Poly.Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
Wouldn't happen at good old Cowley Tech.
Just saying.0 -
But in this case I'd argue that it was not referencing the candidate but a third party, and thus all we can know is they have made marks entirely within my candidate's box and it should stand as a valid vote. If the opposition agent is asleep and the RO reasonable, then it could count.IanB2 said:
I doubt a written comment obviously negative about a candidate would qualify as a valid vote (leaving aside any considerations about identifying the voter). I believe there is case precedent about "not him" written in the box not counting.RobinWiggs said:
If it is entirely within the box, a good agent will argue that it is expression of a clear preference and that the vote should stand.bobajobPB said:What happens if I write Corbyn is a Massive Twat in the Labour box?
I've argued that a quickly drawn phallus is a valid vote...
At least with a drawing there is a degree of ambiguity.0 -
"The findings are based on an analysis by the Scottish Conservatives of first preference votes from last week's council elections"TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON*
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/861698888532668417
Hmm...0 -
10 more KLAXONs?Scrapheap_as_was said:
10 or more will do fine.......RobD said:
Hm, what's louder and more dramatic than a KLAXON?TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON*
twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/8616988885326684170 -
I agree in principle, but not by prosecuting the local Agent /MP - if the guilt lies at Central Office.RepublicanTory said:
"It has always looked to me that the real guilt lies at Central Office, not local level"philiph said:
ThanksTheScreamingEagles said:
This should explain it better than I canphiliph said:
As a non legal expert, is the CPS expected to bring charges in cases that it thinks they will win, or where they think the potential defendant is guilty?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
Guilt can be exceedingly difficult to prove and the two are very different.
Here's one of the tests.
The evidential test
The prosecutor must first decide whether or not there is enough evidence against the defendant for a realistic prospect of conviction.
This means that the magistrates or jury are more likely than not to convict the defendant of the charge. If there is not a realistic prospect of conviction, the case must not go ahead, no matter how important or serious it may be.
It is the duty of every Crown Prosecutor to make sure that the right person is prosecuted for the right offence. In doing so, Crown Prosecutors must always act in the interests of justice and not only for the purpose of obtaining a conviction
https://www.cps.gov.uk/victims_witnesses/reporting_a_crime/decision_to_charge.html
That is clear and understandable, could be because there are no puns or 80s pop music references.
I wonder if those criteria are more helpful to the accused than to CPS or other parties?
It has always looked to me that the real guilt lies at Central Office, not local level. I could see a case built around the advice from central office that the EC had always accepted the battle bus costs as National expenditure in the past, so it was not to be included in local costs as overwhelmingly persuasive. I suspect the EC is guilty of allowing unacceptable practice to grow over time, and for that to become the moving line with each election to which the parties could acceptably bend the rules.
Whilst guilt of someone(or more than one) in the Tory ranks is undeniable, I could see agents and MPs building a good defense.
That, of course, is academic in terms of the bad press from charges, accusations and a hostile and aggressive press.
Which is why in certain cases the ramifications could be very serious.0 -
Hmmmm....target? Filed under "They're avin' a larf....."Richard_Nabavi said:Leeds East? Really?
0 -
People keep talking about deadlines but -where have these dates come from?IanB2 said:
Legally they have no choice; they have already been granted one extension and the deadlines are days away. I have no idea whether a minister could grant a further extension or not, but the political costs of doing so probably rule this out even if it could be done.RepublicanTory said:
The CPS know that the Tories will win the election -are they really going to make a decision before June the 8th ?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
But I wont put any money down on this election until i know what the DPS timescale is.0 -
https://twitter.com/iainmcgill/status/861699550460956672chrisb said:"The findings are based on an analysis by the Scottish Conservatives of first preference votes from last week's council elections"Hmm...
0 -
What qualifies her? Is it racism? And is wanting controls on immigration racist enough to be fascist? Or how how racist do you have to be to qualify? Or is it something else in Le Pen that makes her a fascist? You obviously don't need a dictator for fascism anymore, so I'm wondering precisely how one qualifies. And none of the fascism experts seem to have an answer.bobajobPB said:Jonny
I said Le Pen was a fascist.0 -
Doesn't it mostly educate people to write, speak, broadcast and make political decisions about all the inventions and discoveries made by people from Cambridge?Charles said:
Now CEO of International Rescue (Archer never went to Oxford). So if he was as dense as Abbott going in, we must have added more value while he was there...TheScreamingEagles said:
Cowley Tech let in David Miliband with 3 Bs and a D, and also Jeffrey Archer.Mortimer said:
I've heard they even let people with red shoes into Fen Poly.Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
Wouldn't happen at good old Cowley Tech.
Just saying.0 -
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My sentiments exactly.MarqueeMark said:
Hmmmm....target? Filed under "They're avin' a larf....."Richard_Nabavi said:Leeds East? Really?
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He was definitely a member of the JCR, we had the photos and minutes etcIshmael_Z said:
No, no, no. You have made the schoolboy error of believing what Jeffrey archer says. He attended a teacher training course or something which took place during the long vacation at Brasenose; he was never a member of the university.TheScreamingEagles said:
Cowley Tech let in David Miliband with 3 Bs and a D, and also Jeffrey Archer.Mortimer said:
I've heard they even let people with red shoes into Fen Poly.Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
[]
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
Wouldn't happen at good old Cowley Tech.
Just saying.0 -
Didn't you Commies kill more people in more countries than the Fascists?bobajobPB said:Jonny
I said Le Pen was a fascist.0 -
What a charming gentleman.isam said:Oh my word!!
youtu.be/HeKDcazGa1A0 -
Excellent work!Arthur_Penny said:
It means anything that the 'liberal elite' don't like - and as such has no meaning at all and so can be safely ignored along with racist, xenophobe, islamophobe, corbynophobe, little-englander, neocon, lepenophile etc.JonnyJimmy said:Does 'fascism' now mean 'wanting immigration controls'?
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Yes, it educates us to employ Cambridge graduates in technical support roles.IanB2 said:Doesn't it mostly educate people to write, speak, broadcast and make political decisions about all the inventions and discoveries made by people from Cambridge?
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LolRichard_Nabavi said:
Yes, it educates us to employ Cambridge graduates in technical support roles.IanB2 said:Doesn't it mostly educate people to write, speak, broadcast and make political decisions about all the inventions and discoveries made by people from Cambridge?
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It's not my period but I tend to take the view that trade links were more extensive than previously known. There have been interesting artefacts uncovered in Cornwall that came from Phoenica, for example. It's not proof of movement, but with ships it's possible.Ishmael_Z said:
"Extensive trade links from mid 50s BC onwards" doesn't justify "so probably before that as well", because of rather important events in 55 and 54 BC. And, again, trade links don't imply travels from one end of the chain to the other. She presumably simply misdates Caesar's invasion by a few centuries, since she says "centurions" rather than "traders" (and also thinks centurion just means soldier, in the absence of any argument why centurions are more likely to be black than other ranks are).Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
I suspect that Abbott was simply wrong - as you say. But she could have been right by luck..,0 -
The normal one year period to charge someone, which applied to all crimes AIUI, has been extended to two years. The date of the offence is the date the expenses returns were submitted for each constituency, and the time is almost up.RepublicanTory said:
People keep talking about deadlines but -where have these dates come from?IanB2 said:
Legally they have no choice; they have already been granted one extension and the deadlines are days away. I have no idea whether a minister could grant a further extension or not, but the political costs of doing so probably rule this out even if it could be done.RepublicanTory said:
The CPS know that the Tories will win the election -are they really going to make a decision before June the 8th ?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
But I wont put any money down on this election until i know what the DPS timescale is.
Edit/ to correct myself, the reference to all crimes is obvious nonsense, since serious crimes can be charged years after the event. Sorry. Nevertheless I know a one year limit applies in this particular case.0 -
Macron is economically closer to Osborne than he is Corbyn so quite possibly, I think France will grow quite strongly economically over the next few years, maybe even more than the UK and US but socially it will still have problems of integrating immigrants and terrorist attackschestnut said:Newsnight asking if Macron can succeed in making the French more like the British. A noble aspiration.
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With the likely support of the MSM and lots of bright young things on FB-it will take at least 2 electoral turns but it probably will do in any case.bobajobPB said:
Thanks. I now think that a split may not be that bad an outcome. Given that the splitting party will (I assume) have 100+ MPs and five years, that's not too bad a starting point.RepublicanTory said:
That is a very fair point-if you were a Labour MP who was not a Corbynista, Macron's victory would be very encouraging.bobajobPB said:If I credited Corbyn with any guile I would say that his ludicrous statement that he will go on and on was designed to spark a mid campaign rebellion from the PLP so the absurd Milne can then blame the inevitable election smashing on them. But that would be too clever by half. As it is, Corbyn will be challenged and if he wins the challenge the party will split. So be it. Five years is long enough to build a party. Just look at Macron!
I know the electoral system is different but it is still encouraging.0 -
Carried by 10 pandasRobD said:
10 more KLAXONs?Scrapheap_as_was said:
10 or more will do fine.......RobD said:
Hm, what's louder and more dramatic than a KLAXON?TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON*
twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/8616988885326684170 -
Some will have submitted very soon, others would have waited until the last moment (June 7th).IanB2 said:
The normal one year period to charge someone, which applied to all crimes AIUI, has been extended to two years. The date of the offence is the date the expenses returns were submitted for each constituency, and the time is almost up.RepublicanTory said:
People keep talking about deadlines but -where have these dates come from?IanB2 said:
Legally they have no choice; they have already been granted one extension and the deadlines are days away. I have no idea whether a minister could grant a further extension or not, but the political costs of doing so probably rule this out even if it could be done.RepublicanTory said:
The CPS know that the Tories will win the election -are they really going to make a decision before June the 8th ?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
But I wont put any money down on this election until i know what the DPS timescale is.0 -
Thunderclap!RobD said:
Hm, what's louder and more dramatic than a KLAXON?TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON*
twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/8616988885326684170 -
Not mine either - but when I started studying Medieval history the most important lesson was that sea travel was much quicker than 'road' travel.Charles said:
It's not my period but I tend to take the view that trade links were more extensive than previously known. There have been interesting artefacts uncovered in Cornwall that came from Phoenica, for example. It's not proof of movement, but with ships it's possible.Ishmael_Z said:
"Extensive trade links from mid 50s BC onwards" doesn't justify "so probably before that as well", because of rather important events in 55 and 54 BC. And, again, trade links don't imply travels from one end of the chain to the other. She presumably simply misdates Caesar's invasion by a few centuries, since she says "centurions" rather than "traders" (and also thinks centurion just means soldier, in the absence of any argument why centurions are more likely to be black than other ranks are).Charles said:
I think it is very probable there were Romans in Britain hundreds of years before Christ.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Each extra criterion (centurions, black) reduces the probability somewhat.
But I agree with your conclusion! What I don't understand is how did she get into Fenland Poly?
I suspect that Abbott was simply wrong - as you say. But she could have been right by luck..,0 -
I believe the dates in the 15 seats are mostly late May. It's unusual to wait to the last minute, partly because it is a job most candidates and agents are eager to get out of the way, and also because most EROs are friendly enough to cast an eye over submissions and give someone a ring if they have made an obvious cockup like forgetting to sign them or putting the wrong year as the date.RobD said:
Some will have submitted very soon, others would have waited until the last moment (June 7th).IanB2 said:
The normal one year period to charge someone, which applied to all crimes AIUI, has been extended to two years. The date of the offence is the date the expenses returns were submitted for each constituency, and the time is almost up.RepublicanTory said:
People keep talking about deadlines but -where have these dates come from?IanB2 said:
Legally they have no choice; they have already been granted one extension and the deadlines are days away. I have no idea whether a minister could grant a further extension or not, but the political costs of doing so probably rule this out even if it could be done.RepublicanTory said:
The CPS know that the Tories will win the election -are they really going to make a decision before June the 8th ?RoyalBlue said:Thinking back to the CPS, it will be far more damaging if the charges come out in dribs and drabs, rather than in one go.
But I wont put any money down on this election until i know what the DPS timescale is.0 -
HYUFD
It has a lot of potential. One of the most productive countries in Europe I understand, per hour worked. Much more productive than the meeting-obsessed UK.0