Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.
It is not enough to succeed, others have to fail.
Have you actually asked any Leavers this question or is this what you have decided they think?
You are clearly a very intelligent man, and as a leaver (with a degree-so sorry i do not fit the photofit) i get increasingly frustrated that intelligent people like you just lazily projecting your views on "leavers" as if we are a cattle like group - you are brighter than this so if you really want to understand why a majority of your fellow citizens voted differently to you, i would desist with the assumptions and start listening to what people are saying.
From SNP Edinburgh West Dumbartonshire East Fife NE
From Labour Cambridge Bristol West Cardiff Central
From Conservatives Bath Kingston Twickenham OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.'
I would add to North Norfolk & Carlshalton, Southport where the MP is retiring & his majority was 1,300 + Richmond where Goldsmith's 2015 majority was 23,000 & insufficient time since the by election for any incumbency benefit.
Add to that a very poor campaign so far and 10 seats seems about right.
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
Trade links very much do not imply movement of people. You have your Silk Road from A to B, but that doesn't mean that anyone is travelling from A to B rather than buying from a market a day's journey to the East and selling in a market 1 day to the W, and vice versa.
And this is a history graduate; admittedly from Cambridge, but still...Surely 55/54 BC are two of the ten most memorable dates in UK history?
The interesting question about the possibility of Cons taking ultra safe Labour seats is whether the presumed lack of a GOTV operation will handicap them. The irony being that it is possible that the Labour GOTV operation is equally inept because they have had little recent history of needing it. The Scotland problem whereby Labour lacked basic information about their own voters in the seats where they would have been expected to know everything.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.
It is not enough to succeed, others have to fail.
Have you actually asked any Leavers this question or is this what you have decided they think?
You are clearly a very intelligent man, and as a leaver (with a degree-so sorry i do not fit the photofit) i get increasingly frustrated that intelligent people like you just lazily projecting your views on "leavers" as if we are a cattle like group - you are brighter than this so if you really want to understand why a majority of your fellow citizens voted differently to you, i would desist with the assumptions and start listening to what people are saying.
Quite - it might easily be inferred from the avove that Foxinsox is hoping that the EU will leave Britain 'trailing in its wake'
Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
I think a lot depends upon how many candidates Ukip put up.
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
Probably not Centurions though!
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
The interesting question about the possibility of Cons taking ultra safe Labour seats is whether the presumed lack of a GOTV operation will handicap them. The irony being that it is possible that the Labour GOTV operation is equally inept because they have had little recent history of needing it. The Scotland problem whereby Labour lacked basic information about their own voters in the seats where they would have been expected to know everything.
I remember a few years back Dr Palmer of this parish being shocked at the lack of current canvas records held by the local CLP in Crewe at the byelection, when compared to the extensive ongoing canvassing his team had always done in his marginal of Broxtowe.
Does anyone have a link to this 8-out-of-10 Leavers Le Pen poll?
8 out of ten cat owners said their cat chose .....
The advert had to be amended to '8 out of ten cat owners who expressed a preferance...'
Always make me chuckle when they do that for some shampoo or beauty product, in tiny letters it will say sample size something stupid like 35.
Yes. An embarrassingly good analogy for what is going on here.
I have always regarded Last Tango in Paris as evidence that 9 out of 10 housewives can't tell the difference between margarine and butter, but I should probably amend that by adding "who expressed a preference".
Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
The critical thing to note at the moment is that only 60-65% (ICM/Yougov) of 2015 Labour voters are pledging to turnout and vote Labour again.
This number is grim but an improvement on not so long ago where it dipped under 50%.
The Tories are collecting UKIP switchers at a rate of 10:1 compared to Labour and they are picking up more Lib Dem switchers as well.
It would be informative if the pollsters included Greens and SNP in more detail.
The SNP own 50% of the 2015 Scottish vote, while the Greens were over 5% across London and the South. I have a feeling that Labour are perhaps getting a little drift back north of the border and are picking up the Greens whose policies often seem indistinguishable from Corbynism.
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
"Hundreds of years before Christ"? Hardly.
I reckon up to 100bc is plausible. Before that is unlikely.
But i don't think the difference between 100bc and "hundredS of years" is any more important than Cameron saying 1940 when he meant 1940s
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
You're describing intent or malice. I'm describing what the polling seems to show - apathy, and no real feeling they need to have a view. You can, of course, persuade the apathetic. Or you could, if you weren't insulting them and calling them nazi sympathisers.
If I'm insulting any group (I don't think I am), I'm laying into those Leavers who claim to have thought things through in depth but who have no interest in exploring why more than 6 million Leavers apparently think that Marine Le Pen's election would have been best for Britain, instead preferring to attack those who point this out. This elevation of Brexit to First Law status is pernicious and highly immoral. But Leavers seem more affronted about being supposedly smeared than in confronting it.
I seriously question that 6 million people in the UK have the slightest idea what MLP stands for beyond a few platitudes - let alone 6 million Leavers.
That said i suspect even fewer people know what Macron stands for-which rather begs the question-should we really take much notice of these polls???
'It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.'
You obviously haven't seen Macron's election pledges they give a whole new meaning to uncosted promises they make Corbyn look like Mr Austerity.
Fortunately for Macron he had a very weak opponent but it doesn't auger well for the future & it seems that he has already been rebuffed by Merkel.
On Topic. As of now I expect The Libdems to get around 14% vote share & 15 MPs. However thats based on no big shifts & that breaks down to four assumptions No prosecutions or no effect if there are Labour dont crack Tories vote share reverses the trends of the last 70 Years No unwinding of Labour vote as we go from "Mid-Term" to the Election itself You can make a case for all 4 assumptions but I wouldnt bet on them.
If that is so then Labour are hardly picking up any UKIP voters at all..... At least we can put some figures into our spreadsheets.
Forgive my vagueness on this point, but based on following the trend in the YouGov polls I would estimate that the rate of Ukip-Con defection is anything from 5 to 10 times greater than that from Ukip-Lab. Which makes absolute sense when you consider that Ukip voters are liable to be, on average, older, more socially conservative, and very Brexity indeed.
The 2015 Lib Dem vote is very soft, but generally speaking they are shown as picking up more voters from Labour than they shed to them, hence the fact that they're typically polling at around 10-11% now. The Con-LD and LD-Con flows usually cancel each other out, or run very slightly in the Lib Dems' favour.
Labour is bleeding out: they might be squeezing the Greens a fraction, but appear to be going backwards against the Tories as well as the Lib Dems. That said, their recent improvement from mid- to high-20s in the polls seems to be down to their 2015 vote firming up a bit - although I remain to be convinced that this is a real trend and not an artefact of methodological change. Certainly, if they were to collect more than their 27% PNS from the local elections then that would break with historical precedent.
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..
"And did those feet..."
The original QTWTAIN.
It is generally accepted that Christ spent some time between the resurrection and the Ascension in meso-America; the Mormons have always believed this, and a cogent archaeological case was made in a PhD by a bloke whose name escapes me, but who retrained as a physicist and is now a distinguished 9/11 hoax theorist. Seems pretty conclusive to me.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.
Of course it doesn't render it meaningless. It's hardly a statistical fluke. It's a real indication of the division of sympathies among Leavers who have paid attention to the subject. It's not as though it was close.
There's no evidence that people responding to that question had thought about it before the question was asked.
Latest Wales opinion poll shows Labour up 5pts. Still behind, but the gap narrowing. As I said after locals, I am not expecting the wipe out here that may happen over the border.
I don't get this idea that any French leader would be "better" for Britain.
Le Pen would have spun the EU into crisis, pretty much guaranteeing a 'no deal' Brexit, and then aggressively pursued French national interests, if she'd got any traction in parliament. Which would probably include withdrawing from NATO and an element of isolationism.
Macron will aggressively pursue French interests, but from inside the EU, and be relatively pragmatic, although tough, on Brexit negotiations. The chance of a UK-EU deal is much higher.
Which is best for the UK?
Almost certainly the latter. Either way, you can't get out of the fact that any elected French leader will do what's best for France, not go out of their way to do favours for the UK.
The only one who might have had a modicum of additional sympathy for the UK would have been Fillion, and even then I doubt it'd have amounted to very much in terms of impact.
Another question...What was he doing in Leamington Spa? He ain't gonna win there, but it isn't a total Tory safe seat. Wasting time and energy in a traditional marginal, but with 7k Tory majority have bugger all chance in.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.
Instead of accusing others of bullying and smearing, telling people to fuck off, pour yourself a glass of Shiraz, and chill out, engage with the argument.
People who bully and people who smear should expect to have that pointed out.
If you care to offer an argument I'll engage with it.
Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
I think a lot depends upon how many candidates Ukip put up.
Well, that's the other great unknown, isn't it?
If half of the Ukip vote in any given constituency defects to the Tories, but then Ukip announces it's not contesting the seat, then what happens to that other half? Do they follow the others across to Mrs May, are they strong anti-Tories who take their votes back to Labour, or do they perhaps pick (if they're standing) a local independent, or a fringe Right candidate such as an English Democrat? It's also far from impossible that some disenfranchised Ukippers could even use the Lib Dems in their old role as a repository for protest votes, or simply stay at home. We just don't know.
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..
"And did those feet..."
The original QTWTAIN.
It is generally accepted that Christ spent some time between the resurrection and the Ascension in meso-America; the Mormons have always believed this, and a cogent archaeological case was made in a PhD by a bloke whose name escapes me, but who retrained as a physicist and is now a distinguished 9/11 hoax theorist. Seems pretty conclusive to me.
Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
50% of the UKIP vote going Con in Stockton North and 12.5% of the Lab vote going Con would be enough to tip the balance to Con overall, just.
The 15/8 with William Hill implies a 35% chance of it happening. I'd say it's value but I think there are better bets out there.
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.
What will happen if any Conservative candidates are charged after that date? Presumably they will have to stand pending trial as it will be too late to withdraw and merely being charged won't void the nomination?
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..
"And did those feet..."
The original QTWTAIN.
It is generally accepted that Christ spent some time between the resurrection and the Ascension in meso-America; the Mormons have always believed this, and a cogent archaeological case was made in a PhD by a bloke whose name escapes me, but who retrained as a physicist and is now a distinguished 9/11 hoax theorist. Seems pretty conclusive to me.
Latest Wales opinion poll shows Labour up 5pts. Still behind, but the gap narrowing. As I said after locals, I am not expecting the wipe out here that may happen over the border.
looks like the anti-tory vote coalescing around labour?
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.
What will happen if any Conservative candidates are charged after that date? Presumably they will have to stand pending trial as it will be too late to withdraw and merely being charged won't void the nomination?
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.
What will happen if any Conservative candidates are charged after that date? Presumably they will have to stand pending trial as it will be too late to withdraw and merely being charged won't void the nomination?
They have half a second or so:
Deadline for withdrawals of nomination 19 days (4pm) 4pm on Thursday 11 May
Latest Wales opinion poll shows Labour up 5pts. Still behind, but the gap narrowing. As I said after locals, I am not expecting the wipe out here that may happen over the border.
looks like the anti-tory vote coalescing around labour?
It doesn't look like anything. More polls before one can be definitive.
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.
I wonder if it would benefit the Tories any bad news coming out earlier rather than later. A week before the election would be most unfortunate. I still stand by my prediciton - whatever the CPS decides, it won't make a jot of difference to the outcome.
Latest Wales opinion poll shows Labour up 5pts. Still behind, but the gap narrowing. As I said after locals, I am not expecting the wipe out here that may happen over the border.
Welsh Labour have entirely sensibly decided to stress the "Welsh" and "Carwyn is our leader". Despite Corbyn coming to Whitchurch Common in Cardiff on day one of the campaign, I think short of running out barbed wire along the length of Offa's Dike with orders to stop anybody from north London Labour at any cost, they couldn't be making it more obvious what their feelings are.
Flynn in Newport West may get a Jezza visitation but I doubt many more will want him anywhere near their patch.
Another question...What was he doing in Leamington Spa? He ain't gonna win there, but it isn't a total Tory safe seat. Wasting time and energy in a traditional marginal, but with 7k Tory majority have bugger all chance in.
Warwick & Leamington has a Tory majority of over 6,500. It's around about number 70 on the Labour target list, i.e. the sort of seat that should be changing hands if Labour was on course to become the largest party.
It fits with the general pattern: Corbyn is maintaining the pretence that they're trying to knock lumps out of the Tories by visiting Conservative territory, then returning to campaign in very safe Labour seats in an effort to maximise turnout and therefore vote share. The theory goes that if he can somehow keep Labour at 30% then he can claim this as sufficient support to continue with the Far Left project.
Meanwhile, the staffers at party HQ are just pleased to have him well away from the firewall seats that they're trying to shore up to prevent a total rout.
It looks like Labour's uptick is South Wales and taking votes from Plaid and the Lib Dems.
If Welsh Labour is to outperform expectations then differential swings will be the key. If their core in South Wales holds up well then they can lose every seat in the North and still salvage their largest party status.
Another question...What was he doing in Leamington Spa? He ain't gonna win there, but it isn't a total Tory safe seat. Wasting time and energy in a traditional marginal, but with 7k Tory majority have bugger all chance in.
I think its a safe place to put him, the locale Labour candidate will not win this time, so photos of him and Corbyn wont do him any additionally harm, unlick in the new marginals, i.e. lab majority's of 5-10K
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.
Standing candidates down would be an admission of guilt. Why would they do that?
"Colin Backbencher denies wrongdoing, but is selflessly standing aside to avoid being a distraction to the Conservative campaign. Colin said, 'I will devote my energies to clearing my name but, in the meantime, I want to do nothing to detract from the core issue in the election, which is securing strong and stable leadership with Theresa May and her team.'"
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
Probably not Centurions though!
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.
The sooner we all admit Christianity is just one woman's lie about adultery that got out of hand, the better off we'll all be
Disagree. It's a useful social construct that was heavily influenced by various Middle Eastern sun cults, Mithraism and various pagan cultures it encountered. The more mystical aspects are a question of faith, but I believe the world is a better place because people think they need to justify their behaviour on earth to a higher power
Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
"A safe assumption has now turned into something close to certainty that Mrs May will stay in No 10, with an increased majority, and we can also be reasonably sure Jeremy Corbyn will not be leader for long. Weirdly, this helps him get more votes."
Oh really.....Corbyn appears to have different ideas.
It looks like Labour's uptick is South Wales and taking votes from Plaid and the Lib Dems.
If Welsh Labour is to outperform expectations then differential swings will be the key. If their core in South Wales holds up well then they can lose every seat in the North and still salvage their largest party status.
I think if they limit their losses to the 4 NE Welsh seats and Bridgend, then Labour will have done well in the circumstances. Better than minus 5 would be astonishing.
I was mildly surprised at the resilience of the Labour vote in Cardiff, because the Council has been a disaster in recent years (allegations of bullying within the ruling group, defections and factionalism, together with contentious cost-cutting).
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKaJ4b0XYmI
Which implies Con are happy to stick with candidates, even if charged.
That in turn must imply they feel the sub judice rules will prevent a media storm.
And if anyone is ultimately convicted then never mind as their majority will be big enough that a few by-election losses won't matter.
The above sounds OK as a theory - but what will happen in practice?
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
You are clearly a very intelligent man, and as a leaver (with a degree-so sorry i do not fit the photofit) i get increasingly frustrated that intelligent people like you just lazily projecting your views on "leavers" as if we are a cattle like group - you are brighter than this so if you really want to understand why a majority of your fellow citizens voted differently to you, i would desist with the assumptions and start listening to what people are saying.
Current 9, plus:
From SNP
Edinburgh West
Dumbartonshire East
Fife NE
From Labour
Cambridge
Bristol West
Cardiff Central
From Conservatives
Bath
Kingston
Twickenham
OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.'
I would add to North Norfolk & Carlshalton, Southport where the MP is retiring & his majority was 1,300 + Richmond where Goldsmith's 2015 majority was 23,000 & insufficient time since the by election for any incumbency benefit.
Add to that a very poor campaign so far and 10 seats seems about right.
#BringBackPaddy
And this is a history graduate; admittedly from Cambridge, but still...Surely 55/54 BC are two of the ten most memorable dates in UK history?
https://twitter.com/njayner/status/861632010405675008
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
That's what ICM do with their spiral of silence of adjustment.
Edit: ICM's Spiral of Silence adjustment turned a Tory lead of 25% into a Tory lead of just 22%
I have always regarded Last Tango in Paris as evidence that 9 out of 10 housewives can't tell the difference between margarine and butter, but I should probably amend that by adding "who expressed a preference".
This number is grim but an improvement on not so long ago where it dipped under 50%.
The Tories are collecting UKIP switchers at a rate of 10:1 compared to Labour and they are picking up more Lib Dem switchers as well.
It would be informative if the pollsters included Greens and SNP in more detail.
The SNP own 50% of the 2015 Scottish vote, while the Greens were over 5% across London and the South. I have a feeling that Labour are perhaps getting a little drift back north of the border and are picking up the Greens whose policies often seem indistinguishable from Corbynism.
But i don't think the difference between 100bc and "hundredS of years" is any more important than Cameron saying 1940 when he meant 1940s
That said i suspect even fewer people know what Macron stands for-which rather begs the question-should we really take much notice of these polls???
'It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.'
You obviously haven't seen Macron's election pledges they give a whole new meaning to uncosted promises they make Corbyn look like Mr Austerity.
Fortunately for Macron he had a very weak opponent but it doesn't auger well for the future & it seems that he has already been rebuffed by Merkel.
As of now I expect The Libdems to get around 14% vote share & 15 MPs.
However thats based on no big shifts & that breaks down to four assumptions
No prosecutions or no effect if there are
Labour dont crack
Tories vote share reverses the trends of the last 70 Years
No unwinding of Labour vote as we go from "Mid-Term" to the Election itself
You can make a case for all 4 assumptions but I wouldnt bet on them.
The 2015 Lib Dem vote is very soft, but generally speaking they are shown as picking up more voters from Labour than they shed to them, hence the fact that they're typically polling at around 10-11% now. The Con-LD and LD-Con flows usually cancel each other out, or run very slightly in the Lib Dems' favour.
Labour is bleeding out: they might be squeezing the Greens a fraction, but appear to be going backwards against the Tories as well as the Lib Dems. That said, their recent improvement from mid- to high-20s in the polls seems to be down to their 2015 vote firming up a bit - although I remain to be convinced that this is a real trend and not an artefact of methodological change. Certainly, if they were to collect more than their 27% PNS from the local elections then that would break with historical precedent.
This is a very helpful excuse for an overworked organist who has no time to practice and wants to wriggle out of playing it on theological grounds...
Undergrad students will mostly be voting in their home constituencies this time around, i'd guess.
How can we measure whether they actually turned out?
Le Pen would have spun the EU into crisis, pretty much guaranteeing a 'no deal' Brexit, and then aggressively pursued French national interests, if she'd got any traction in parliament. Which would probably include withdrawing from NATO and an element of isolationism.
Macron will aggressively pursue French interests, but from inside the EU, and be relatively pragmatic, although tough, on Brexit negotiations. The chance of a UK-EU deal is much higher.
Which is best for the UK?
Almost certainly the latter. Either way, you can't get out of the fact that any elected French leader will do what's best for France, not go out of their way to do favours for the UK.
The only one who might have had a modicum of additional sympathy for the UK would have been Fillion, and even then I doubt it'd have amounted to very much in terms of impact.
Clearly my hope he was edging (back?) towards sanity earlier this week were premature.
So it's now up to the voters of Islington North who are about as likely to vote against him as Juncker is to negotiate in good faith.
If you care to offer an argument I'll engage with it.
If half of the Ukip vote in any given constituency defects to the Tories, but then Ukip announces it's not contesting the seat, then what happens to that other half? Do they follow the others across to Mrs May, are they strong anti-Tories who take their votes back to Labour, or do they perhaps pick (if they're standing) a local independent, or a fringe Right candidate such as an English Democrat? It's also far from impossible that some disenfranchised Ukippers could even use the Lib Dems in their old role as a repository for protest votes, or simply stay at home. We just don't know.
Corbyn, on the other hand...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_E._Jones
Jeremy Corbyn doesn't sing the national anthem, Jeremy Corbyn is weak on defence, now Corbyn supporters insult the war dead.
As a friend put it
'almost certainly accidental, but there's clearly nobody left with the nous to avoid these things happening'
BaptistMarxist.4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.
The 15/8 with William Hill implies a 35% chance of it happening. I'd say it's value but I think there are better bets out there.
https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/861685953555034116
Deadline for withdrawals of nomination
19 days (4pm)
4pm on Thursday 11 May
April: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7gwin3hqbl/WelshBarometerResults_April17_w.pdf
May: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/r0t11owx6f/WelshBarometer_May7th_WestminsterVI.pdf
It looks like Labour's uptick is South Wales and taking votes from Plaid and the Lib Dems.
Flynn in Newport West may get a Jezza visitation but I doubt many more will want him anywhere near their patch.
It fits with the general pattern: Corbyn is maintaining the pretence that they're trying to knock lumps out of the Tories by visiting Conservative territory, then returning to campaign in very safe Labour seats in an effort to maximise turnout and therefore vote share. The theory goes that if he can somehow keep Labour at 30% then he can claim this as sufficient support to continue with the Far Left project.
Meanwhile, the staffers at party HQ are just pleased to have him well away from the firewall seats that they're trying to shore up to prevent a total rout.
(Of a political party) : Convinced of its own moral superiority, especially over the Conservative Party; hypocritical.
beerVimto."She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html
Oh really.....Corbyn appears to have different ideas.
I was mildly surprised at the resilience of the Labour vote in Cardiff, because the Council has been a disaster in recent years (allegations of bullying within the ruling group, defections and factionalism, together with contentious cost-cutting).
Apparent the
SNPs little helpersGreens have agreed not to stand against him