politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the
Comments
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Outrageous suggestion!PaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKaJ4b0XYmI0 -
And they never say how many surveys they ran until they got a result they wanted.FrancisUrquhart said:
Always make me chuckle when they do that for some shampoo or beauty product, in tiny letters it will say sample size something stupid like 35.Arthur_Penny said:
8 out of ten cat owners said their cat chose .....Ishmael_Z said:Does anyone have a link to this 8-out-of-10 Leavers Le Pen poll?
The advert had to be amended to '8 out of ten cat owners who expressed a preferance...'0 -
If the Lib-Dems don't improve will Farren get to stay on as leader? I mean, they won't exactly be spoiled for choice lol!0
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But it will surely be too late for Con to change any candidates (unless CPS announces tomorrow).RobD said:
Will be glad if they do them all in one go, and before the nomination deadline. That implies a decision on Wed/Thu?Bufton_Tufton said:'Daily Mirror' on the case now - not exactly a neutral source, but it does sound if they have some firm information.
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-10382571
Which implies Con are happy to stick with candidates, even if charged.
That in turn must imply they feel the sub judice rules will prevent a media storm.
And if anyone is ultimately convicted then never mind as their majority will be big enough that a few by-election losses won't matter.
The above sounds OK as a theory - but what will happen in practice?0 -
Like the Derren Brown x heads in a row...all day until they get the magical 8 out of 10...glw said:
And they never say how many surveys they ran until they got a result they wanted.FrancisUrquhart said:
Always make me chuckle when they do that for some shampoo or beauty product, in tiny letters it will say sample size something stupid like 35.Arthur_Penny said:
8 out of ten cat owners said their cat chose .....Ishmael_Z said:Does anyone have a link to this 8-out-of-10 Leavers Le Pen poll?
The advert had to be amended to '8 out of ten cat owners who expressed a preferance...'0 -
The original QTWTAIN.JohnLilburne said:
"And did those feet..."PaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.0 -
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.chestnut said:
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.Freggles said:Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.0 -
Have you actually asked any Leavers this question or is this what you have decided they think?foxinsoxuk said:
It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.AlastairMeeks said:
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.ab195 said:
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.AlastairMeeks said:
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.ThreeQuidder said:https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/brexiteers-are-marine-le-pens-natural-opponents/
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
It is not enough to succeed, others have to fail.
You are clearly a very intelligent man, and as a leaver (with a degree-so sorry i do not fit the photofit) i get increasingly frustrated that intelligent people like you just lazily projecting your views on "leavers" as if we are a cattle like group - you are brighter than this so if you really want to understand why a majority of your fellow citizens voted differently to you, i would desist with the assumptions and start listening to what people are saying.
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rcs1000
Current 9, plus:
From SNP
Edinburgh West
Dumbartonshire East
Fife NE
From Labour
Cambridge
Bristol West
Cardiff Central
From Conservatives
Bath
Kingston
Twickenham
OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.'
I would add to North Norfolk & Carlshalton, Southport where the MP is retiring & his majority was 1,300 + Richmond where Goldsmith's 2015 majority was 23,000 & insufficient time since the by election for any incumbency benefit.
Add to that a very poor campaign so far and 10 seats seems about right.
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Charges seem unlikely especIally to mps..TheScreamingEagles said:
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.Bufton_Tufton said:'Daily Mirror' on the case now - not exactly a neutral source, but it does sound if they have some firm information.
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-103825710 -
Those were the Cylonsalex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
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Trade links very much do not imply movement of people. You have your Silk Road from A to B, but that doesn't mean that anyone is travelling from A to B rather than buying from a market a day's journey to the East and selling in a market 1 day to the W, and vice versa.Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
And this is a history graduate; admittedly from Cambridge, but still...Surely 55/54 BC are two of the ten most memorable dates in UK history?0 -
The interesting question about the possibility of Cons taking ultra safe Labour seats is whether the presumed lack of a GOTV operation will handicap them. The irony being that it is possible that the Labour GOTV operation is equally inept because they have had little recent history of needing it. The Scotland problem whereby Labour lacked basic information about their own voters in the seats where they would have been expected to know everything.0
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Quite - it might easily be inferred from the avove that Foxinsox is hoping that the EU will leave Britain 'trailing in its wake'RepublicanTory said:
Have you actually asked any Leavers this question or is this what you have decided they think?foxinsoxuk said:
It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.AlastairMeeks said:
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.ab195 said:
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.AlastairMeeks said:
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.ThreeQuidder said:https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/brexiteers-are-marine-le-pens-natural-opponents/
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
It is not enough to succeed, others have to fail.
You are clearly a very intelligent man, and as a leaver (with a degree-so sorry i do not fit the photofit) i get increasingly frustrated that intelligent people like you just lazily projecting your views on "leavers" as if we are a cattle like group - you are brighter than this so if you really want to understand why a majority of your fellow citizens voted differently to you, i would desist with the assumptions and start listening to what people are saying.0 -
Given where this story all started from, I don't share your confidence.SquareRoot said:
Charges seem unlikely especIally to mps..TheScreamingEagles said:
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.Bufton_Tufton said:'Daily Mirror' on the case now - not exactly a neutral source, but it does sound if they have some firm information.
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-103825710 -
I think a lot depends upon how many candidates Ukip put up.Black_Rook said:
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.chestnut said:
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.Freggles said:Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.0 -
I was thinking about Marquee Mark,s comments.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given where this story all started from, I don't share your confidence.SquareRoot said:
Charges seem unlikely especIally to mps..TheScreamingEagles said:
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.Bufton_Tufton said:'Daily Mirror' on the case now - not exactly a neutral source, but it does sound if they have some firm information.
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-103825710 -
0
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It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)0 -
I remember a few years back Dr Palmer of this parish being shocked at the lack of current canvas records held by the local CLP in Crewe at the byelection, when compared to the extensive ongoing canvassing his team had always done in his marginal of Broxtowe.alex. said:The interesting question about the possibility of Cons taking ultra safe Labour seats is whether the presumed lack of a GOTV operation will handicap them. The irony being that it is possible that the Labour GOTV operation is equally inept because they have had little recent history of needing it. The Scotland problem whereby Labour lacked basic information about their own voters in the seats where they would have been expected to know everything.
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It would mean Labour <100 and LIBDEMS on 0 and the SNP on 45. (And that ignores any SNP--> CON movements. - which could of course help the LDs)FrancisUrquhart said:
Will the last non-Tory supporter please remember to turn the lights off at Labour / Lib Dem / UKIP HQ.felix said:0 -
IIRC YouGov don't reallocate DKs/WNV/Refusers.nunu said:Is this actually true?
https://twitter.com/njayner/status/861632010405675008
That's what ICM do with their spiral of silence of adjustment.
Edit: ICM's Spiral of Silence adjustment turned a Tory lead of 25% into a Tory lead of just 22%0 -
Yes. An embarrassingly good analogy for what is going on here.FrancisUrquhart said:
Always make me chuckle when they do that for some shampoo or beauty product, in tiny letters it will say sample size something stupid like 35.Arthur_Penny said:
8 out of ten cat owners said their cat chose .....Ishmael_Z said:Does anyone have a link to this 8-out-of-10 Leavers Le Pen poll?
The advert had to be amended to '8 out of ten cat owners who expressed a preferance...'
I have always regarded Last Tango in Paris as evidence that 9 out of 10 housewives can't tell the difference between margarine and butter, but I should probably amend that by adding "who expressed a preference".0 -
The critical thing to note at the moment is that only 60-65% (ICM/Yougov) of 2015 Labour voters are pledging to turnout and vote Labour again.Black_Rook said:
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.chestnut said:
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.Freggles said:Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
This number is grim but an improvement on not so long ago where it dipped under 50%.
The Tories are collecting UKIP switchers at a rate of 10:1 compared to Labour and they are picking up more Lib Dem switchers as well.
It would be informative if the pollsters included Greens and SNP in more detail.
The SNP own 50% of the 2015 Scottish vote, while the Greens were over 5% across London and the South. I have a feeling that Labour are perhaps getting a little drift back north of the border and are picking up the Greens whose policies often seem indistinguishable from Corbynism.0 -
I reckon up to 100bc is plausible. Before that is unlikely.JohnLilburne said:
"Hundreds of years before Christ"? Hardly.Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
But i don't think the difference between 100bc and "hundredS of years" is any more important than Cameron saying 1940 when he meant 1940s0 -
I seriously question that 6 million people in the UK have the slightest idea what MLP stands for beyond a few platitudes - let alone 6 million Leavers.AlastairMeeks said:
If I'm insulting any group (I don't think I am), I'm laying into those Leavers who claim to have thought things through in depth but who have no interest in exploring why more than 6 million Leavers apparently think that Marine Le Pen's election would have been best for Britain, instead preferring to attack those who point this out. This elevation of Brexit to First Law status is pernicious and highly immoral. But Leavers seem more affronted about being supposedly smeared than in confronting it.ab195 said:
You're describing intent or malice. I'm describing what the polling seems to show - apathy, and no real feeling they need to have a view. You can, of course, persuade the apathetic. Or you could, if you weren't insulting them and calling them nazi sympathisers.AlastairMeeks said:
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.ab195 said:
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.AlastairMeeks said:
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.ThreeQuidder said:https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/brexiteers-are-marine-le-pens-natural-opponents/
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
That said i suspect even fewer people know what Macron stands for-which rather begs the question-should we really take much notice of these polls???0 -
foxinsoxuk
'It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.'
You obviously haven't seen Macron's election pledges they give a whole new meaning to uncosted promises they make Corbyn look like Mr Austerity.
Fortunately for Macron he had a very weak opponent but it doesn't auger well for the future & it seems that he has already been rebuffed by Merkel.0 -
That one is actually quite funny.Scott_P said:0 -
On Topic.
As of now I expect The Libdems to get around 14% vote share & 15 MPs.
However thats based on no big shifts & that breaks down to four assumptions
No prosecutions or no effect if there are
Labour dont crack
Tories vote share reverses the trends of the last 70 Years
No unwinding of Labour vote as we go from "Mid-Term" to the Election itself
You can make a case for all 4 assumptions but I wouldnt bet on them.0 -
Forgive my vagueness on this point, but based on following the trend in the YouGov polls I would estimate that the rate of Ukip-Con defection is anything from 5 to 10 times greater than that from Ukip-Lab. Which makes absolute sense when you consider that Ukip voters are liable to be, on average, older, more socially conservative, and very Brexity indeed.Arthur_Penny said:
If that is so then Labour are hardly picking up any UKIP voters at all..... At least we can put some figures into our spreadsheets.felix said:
The 2015 Lib Dem vote is very soft, but generally speaking they are shown as picking up more voters from Labour than they shed to them, hence the fact that they're typically polling at around 10-11% now. The Con-LD and LD-Con flows usually cancel each other out, or run very slightly in the Lib Dems' favour.
Labour is bleeding out: they might be squeezing the Greens a fraction, but appear to be going backwards against the Tories as well as the Lib Dems. That said, their recent improvement from mid- to high-20s in the polls seems to be down to their 2015 vote firming up a bit - although I remain to be convinced that this is a real trend and not an artefact of methodological change. Certainly, if they were to collect more than their 27% PNS from the local elections then that would break with historical precedent.0 -
Actually I think you'll find it contains four questions to which the answer is no!SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The original QTWTAIN.JohnLilburne said:
"And did those feet..."PaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
This is a very helpful excuse for an overworked organist who has no time to practice and wants to wriggle out of playing it on theological grounds...0 -
There's another Mark involved.SquareRoot said:
I was thinking about Marquee Mark,s comments.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given where this story all started from, I don't share your confidence.SquareRoot said:
Charges seem unlikely especIally to mps..TheScreamingEagles said:
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.Bufton_Tufton said:'Daily Mirror' on the case now - not exactly a neutral source, but it does sound if they have some firm information.
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-103825710 -
Of course. With Joseph of Arimathea. Went to GlastonburyPaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.0 -
Why isn't this mentioned in The Bible?Charles said:
Of course. With Joseph of Arimathea. Went to GlastonburyPaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.0 -
It is generally accepted that Christ spent some time between the resurrection and the Ascension in meso-America; the Mormons have always believed this, and a cogent archaeological case was made in a PhD by a bloke whose name escapes me, but who retrained as a physicist and is now a distinguished 9/11 hoax theorist. Seems pretty conclusive to me.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The original QTWTAIN.JohnLilburne said:
"And did those feet..."PaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.0 -
-
There's no evidence that people responding to that question had thought about it before the question was asked.AlastairMeeks said:
Of course it doesn't render it meaningless. It's hardly a statistical fluke. It's a real indication of the division of sympathies among Leavers who have paid attention to the subject. It's not as though it was close.ThreeQuidder said:
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.AlastairMeeks said:
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.ThreeQuidder said:
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.AlastairMeeks said:
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.ThreeQuidder said:
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?AlastairMeeks said:
It's called the truth.ThreeQuidder said:
You're still repeating that spin?AlastairMeeks said:
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.ThreeQuidder said:https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/brexiteers-are-marine-le-pens-natural-opponents/
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/8616183281918156800 -
Will we be able to tell?FrancisUrquhart said:Snap election raises risk of democratic deficit, say youth vote campaigners
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/08/snap-election-raises-risk-of-democratic-deficit-say-youth-vote-campaigners
Be interesting to see if we do get a big surge in student registrations and if that turns into votes.
Undergrad students will mostly be voting in their home constituencies this time around, i'd guess.
How can we measure whether they actually turned out?0 -
Latest Wales opinion poll shows Labour up 5pts. Still behind, but the gap narrowing. As I said after locals, I am not expecting the wipe out here that may happen over the border.0
-
I don't get this idea that any French leader would be "better" for Britain.
Le Pen would have spun the EU into crisis, pretty much guaranteeing a 'no deal' Brexit, and then aggressively pursued French national interests, if she'd got any traction in parliament. Which would probably include withdrawing from NATO and an element of isolationism.
Macron will aggressively pursue French interests, but from inside the EU, and be relatively pragmatic, although tough, on Brexit negotiations. The chance of a UK-EU deal is much higher.
Which is best for the UK?
Almost certainly the latter. Either way, you can't get out of the fact that any elected French leader will do what's best for France, not go out of their way to do favours for the UK.
The only one who might have had a modicum of additional sympathy for the UK would have been Fillion, and even then I doubt it'd have amounted to very much in terms of impact.0 -
-
It is, but in non-canonical Gospels; the relevant manuscripts are in the Vatican library, and of course the papists suppress them.TheScreamingEagles said:
Why isn't this mentioned in The Bible?Charles said:
Of course. With Joseph of Arimathea. Went to GlastonburyPaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.0 -
Yes - but the Italian one is also rocking.Casino_Royale said:
That one is actually quite funny.Scott_P said:0 -
I think thats a bit unfair.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey this won't help the perceptions about Corbyn
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/8616717183765708830 -
Oh no.Scott_P said:
Clearly my hope he was edging (back?) towards sanity earlier this week were premature.
So it's now up to the voters of Islington North who are about as likely to vote against him as Juncker is to negotiate in good faith.0 -
Not so, Christ went to Liverpool, and St John was moved to play at centre forward.Charles said:
Of course. With Joseph of Arimathea. Went to GlastonburyPaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.0 -
Maybe that is a David Cameron style statementSandyRentool said:0 -
Another question...What was he doing in Leamington Spa? He ain't gonna win there, but it isn't a total Tory safe seat. Wasting time and energy in a traditional marginal, but with 7k Tory majority have bugger all chance in.Scott_P said:0 -
People who bully and people who smear should expect to have that pointed out.bobajobPB said:
Instead of accusing others of bullying and smearing, telling people to fuck off, pour yourself a glass of Shiraz, and chill out, engage with the argument.ThreeQuidder said:
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.AlastairMeeks said:
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.ThreeQuidder said:
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.AlastairMeeks said:
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.ThreeQuidder said:
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?AlastairMeeks said:
It's called the truth.ThreeQuidder said:
You're still repeating that spin?AlastairMeeks said:
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.ThreeQuidder said:https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/brexiteers-are-marine-le-pens-natural-opponents/
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/861618328191815680
If you care to offer an argument I'll engage with it.0 -
Well, that's the other great unknown, isn't it?tlg86 said:
I think a lot depends upon how many candidates Ukip put up.Black_Rook said:
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.chestnut said:
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.Freggles said:Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
If half of the Ukip vote in any given constituency defects to the Tories, but then Ukip announces it's not contesting the seat, then what happens to that other half? Do they follow the others across to Mrs May, are they strong anti-Tories who take their votes back to Labour, or do they perhaps pick (if they're standing) a local independent, or a fringe Right candidate such as an English Democrat? It's also far from impossible that some disenfranchised Ukippers could even use the Lib Dems in their old role as a repository for protest votes, or simply stay at home. We just don't know.0 -
The order should really be: Austria, Netherlands, France, Italy.Arthur_Penny said:
Yes - but the Italian one is also rocking.Casino_Royale said:
That one is actually quite funny.Scott_P said:0 -
David Cameron was fairly intelligent, had considerable political awareness and was despite a few lapses basically honourable.Alistair said:
Maybe that is a David Cameron style statementSandyRentool said:
Corbyn, on the other hand...0 -
Are you thinking of Steven E Jones?Ishmael_Z said:
It is generally accepted that Christ spent some time between the resurrection and the Ascension in meso-America; the Mormons have always believed this, and a cogent archaeological case was made in a PhD by a bloke whose name escapes me, but who retrained as a physicist and is now a distinguished 9/11 hoax theorist. Seems pretty conclusive to me.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The original QTWTAIN.JohnLilburne said:
"And did those feet..."PaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_E._Jones0 -
I know, but it's a perception issue.nunu said:
I think thats a bit unfair.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey this won't help the perceptions about Corbyn
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/861671718376570883
Jeremy Corbyn doesn't sing the national anthem, Jeremy Corbyn is weak on defence, now Corbyn supporters insult the war dead.
As a friend put it
'almost certainly accidental, but there's clearly nobody left with the nous to avoid these things happening'0 -
Labour Party going to need some sort of chemo to get rid of the cancer of JC and John the
BaptistMarxist.0 -
An important date:
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.0 -
50% of the UKIP vote going Con in Stockton North and 12.5% of the Lab vote going Con would be enough to tip the balance to Con overall, just.Black_Rook said:
Stockton North is so very safe (something like 108 on the Conservative target list, between Don Valley and Torfaen) that it really ought only to be threatened if the 2015 Ukip vote totally collapses, and more-or-less the whole lot moves over to the Tories - in which case, Labour voters sitting on their hands and/or direct Lab to Con and Lab to LD defections could knock it over.chestnut said:
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.Freggles said:Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
This is one of the reasons why I am so sceptical of the more extreme predictions of Labour collapse. Yes, I expect that a meaningful Lab-Con direct swing is taking place and yes, I would also imagine that it is more pronounced in (mostly provincial) Leave-leaning areas. However, if you start from the assumption that 50% of the Ukip vote moves into the Tory column, then narrow Labour majorities still start to thin out substantially from about Exeter downwards on the Labour defence list. In order to knock more seats over or to make them tight contests, you need to assume that 60,70,80% of the Ukip vote migrates across to the Conservatives. Now, even though Ukip had a total mare in the council elections, their PNS was still 5% (and they're typically doing slightly better than that in the GE VI polls.) It's a slump but it's not a total capitulation.
Under the circumstances there are likely to be a few surprises on election night in some seats that had previously assumed to be very safe indeed for Labour; however, that deep into Labour territory most of the MPs should survive. If the incumbent in Stockton North is toppled then I think that he may count himself rather unfortunate.
The 15/8 with William Hill implies a 35% chance of it happening. I'd say it's value but I think there are better bets out there.0 -
Nice to see the three North-Eastern football clubs occupying consecutive positions in the League.0
-
Specifically on the question of would he stay on after a defeat.ydoethur said:
David Cameron was fairly intelligent, had considerable political awareness and was despite a few lapses basically honourable.Alistair said:
Maybe that is a David Cameron style statementSandyRentool said:
Corbyn, on the other hand...0 -
What will happen if any Conservative candidates are charged after that date? Presumably they will have to stand pending trial as it will be too late to withdraw and merely being charged won't void the nomination?Pulpstar said:An important date:
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.0 -
That's the one. Brainy chap.GeoffM said:
Are you thinking of Steven E Jones?Ishmael_Z said:
It is generally accepted that Christ spent some time between the resurrection and the Ascension in meso-America; the Mormons have always believed this, and a cogent archaeological case was made in a PhD by a bloke whose name escapes me, but who retrained as a physicist and is now a distinguished 9/11 hoax theorist. Seems pretty conclusive to me.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The original QTWTAIN.JohnLilburne said:
"And did those feet..."PaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_E._Jones0 -
That's right.ydoethur said:
What will happen if any Conservative candidates are charged after that date? Presumably they will have to stand pending trial as it will be too late to withdraw and merely being charged won't void the nomination?Pulpstar said:An important date:
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.0 -
Does Corbyn have a sense of humour or is he just as thick as two short ones?
https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/8616859535550341160 -
They have half a second or so:ydoethur said:
What will happen if any Conservative candidates are charged after that date? Presumably they will have to stand pending trial as it will be too late to withdraw and merely being charged won't void the nomination?Pulpstar said:An important date:
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.
Deadline for withdrawals of nomination
19 days (4pm)
4pm on Thursday 11 May
0 -
Evidence suggests....Corbyn has a lot more in common with Trump than he thinks...spending all that time on conspiracy websites.dr_spyn said:Does Corbyn have a sense of humour or is he just as thick as two short ones?
https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/8616859535550341160 -
It doesn't look like anything. More polls before one can be definitive.nunu said:
looks like the anti-tory vote coalescing around labour?valleyboy said:Latest Wales opinion poll shows Labour up 5pts. Still behind, but the gap narrowing. As I said after locals, I am not expecting the wipe out here that may happen over the border.
0 -
Yougov Wales tables
April: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7gwin3hqbl/WelshBarometerResults_April17_w.pdf
May: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/r0t11owx6f/WelshBarometer_May7th_WestminsterVI.pdf
It looks like Labour's uptick is South Wales and taking votes from Plaid and the Lib Dems.0 -
I wonder if it would benefit the Tories any bad news coming out earlier rather than later. A week before the election would be most unfortunate. I still stand by my prediciton - whatever the CPS decides, it won't make a jot of difference to the outcome.Pulpstar said:An important date:
4pm on Thursday 11 May - Nomination deadline for candidates.0 -
-
Welsh Labour have entirely sensibly decided to stress the "Welsh" and "Carwyn is our leader". Despite Corbyn coming to Whitchurch Common in Cardiff on day one of the campaign, I think short of running out barbed wire along the length of Offa's Dike with orders to stop anybody from north London Labour at any cost, they couldn't be making it more obvious what their feelings are.valleyboy said:Latest Wales opinion poll shows Labour up 5pts. Still behind, but the gap narrowing. As I said after locals, I am not expecting the wipe out here that may happen over the border.
Flynn in Newport West may get a Jezza visitation but I doubt many more will want him anywhere near their patch.
0 -
It happened during the missing 30 years....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why isn't this mentioned in The Bible?Charles said:
Of course. With Joseph of Arimathea. Went to GlastonburyPaulM said:
Wasn't aware that Christ had ever come over to Britain..Ishmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.0 -
The sooner we all admit Christianity is just one woman's lie about adultery that got out of hand, the better off we'll all beCharles said:
It happened during the missing 30 years....0 -
Warwick & Leamington has a Tory majority of over 6,500. It's around about number 70 on the Labour target list, i.e. the sort of seat that should be changing hands if Labour was on course to become the largest party.FrancisUrquhart said:
Another question...What was he doing in Leamington Spa? He ain't gonna win there, but it isn't a total Tory safe seat. Wasting time and energy in a traditional marginal, but with 7k Tory majority have bugger all chance in.Scott_P said:
It fits with the general pattern: Corbyn is maintaining the pretence that they're trying to knock lumps out of the Tories by visiting Conservative territory, then returning to campaign in very safe Labour seats in an effort to maximise turnout and therefore vote share. The theory goes that if he can somehow keep Labour at 30% then he can claim this as sufficient support to continue with the Far Left project.
Meanwhile, the staffers at party HQ are just pleased to have him well away from the firewall seats that they're trying to shore up to prevent a total rout.0 -
I think you'll find that you are referring to the 2 north east clubs, plus a club representing a small town in Yorkshire!Arthur_Penny said:Nice to see the three North-Eastern football clubs occupying consecutive positions in the League.
0 -
Hear hearSandyRentool said:
I think you'll find that you are referring to the 2 north east clubs, plus a club representing a small town in Yorkshire!Arthur_Penny said:Nice to see the three North-Eastern football clubs occupying consecutive positions in the League.
0 -
pfffTheScreamingEagles said:
The sooner we all admit Christianity is just one woman's lie about adultery that got out of hand, the better off we'll all beCharles said:
It happened during the missing 30 years....
0 -
progressive adjective> pro·gres·sive \prə-ˈgre-siv\
(Of a political party) : Convinced of its own moral superiority, especially over the Conservative Party; hypocritical.0 -
If Welsh Labour is to outperform expectations then differential swings will be the key. If their core in South Wales holds up well then they can lose every seat in the North and still salvage their largest party status.chestnut said:Yougov Wales tables
April: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7gwin3hqbl/WelshBarometerResults_April17_w.pdf
May: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/r0t11owx6f/WelshBarometer_May7th_WestminsterVI.pdf
It looks like Labour's uptick is South Wales and taking votes from Plaid and the Lib Dems.0 -
Does 'fascism' now mean 'wanting immigration controls'?0
-
Could we have a definition of 'near-perfect' please Mr N?Richard_Nabavi said:progressive adjective> pro·gres·sive \prə-ˈgre-siv\
(Of a political party) : Convinced of its own moral superiority, especially over the Conservative Party; hypocritical.0 -
Corbyn: "Hold myTheScreamingEagles said:beerVimto."0 -
I think its a safe place to put him, the locale Labour candidate will not win this time, so photos of him and Corbyn wont do him any additionally harm, unlick in the new marginals, i.e. lab majority's of 5-10KFrancisUrquhart said:
Another question...What was he doing in Leamington Spa? He ain't gonna win there, but it isn't a total Tory safe seat. Wasting time and energy in a traditional marginal, but with 7k Tory majority have bugger all chance in.Scott_P said:0 -
I think Chris Huhne said something similar IIRC ?williamglenn said:
How many PB Leavers thought that Nicolas Dupont-Aignan was a Gallic kindred spirit?ThreeQuidder said:
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.AlastairMeeks said:
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.ThreeQuidder said:
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?AlastairMeeks said:
It's called the truth.ThreeQuidder said:
You're still repeating that spin?AlastairMeeks said:
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.ThreeQuidder said:https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/brexiteers-are-marine-le-pens-natural-opponents/
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/861618328191815680SirNorfolkPassmore said:
"Colin Backbencher denies wrongdoing, but is selflessly standing aside to avoid being a distraction to the Conservative campaign. Colin said, 'I will devote my energies to clearing my name but, in the meantime, I want to do nothing to detract from the core issue in the election, which is securing strong and stable leadership with Theresa May and her team.'"RoyalBlue said:
Standing candidates down would be an admission of guilt. Why would they do that?TheScreamingEagles said:
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.Bufton_Tufton said:'Daily Mirror' on the case now - not exactly a neutral source, but it does sound if they have some firm information.
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-103825710 -
It is laughably stupid because she seems to believe there were Romans in Britain 'hundreds of years before Christ'. Whatever your view on there being blacks amongst the Romans who landed here - and I think it very likely to the point of certainty, she has managed to push back the arrival of the Romans by several centuries.Charles said:
It's not my period, but I believe retired NCOs like Centurions retained their rank. But that does make it less likely, yes, although not laughably stupid.alex. said:
Probably not Centurions though!Charles said:
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggestsIshmael_Z said:
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."Baskerville said:FPT:
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
(At least it wouldn't be laughably stupid if it had been someone other than Abbott making the comment. She's just a blithering idiot)
She is basically dumber than a bag of rocks.0 -
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Disagree. It's a useful social construct that was heavily influenced by various Middle Eastern sun cults, Mithraism and various pagan cultures it encountered. The more mystical aspects are a question of faith, but I believe the world is a better place because people think they need to justify their behaviour on earth to a higher powerTheScreamingEagles said:
The sooner we all admit Christianity is just one woman's lie about adultery that got out of hand, the better off we'll all beCharles said:
It happened during the missing 30 years....0 -
Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html0 -
"A safe assumption has now turned into something close to certainty that Mrs May will stay in No 10, with an increased majority, and we can also be reasonably sure Jeremy Corbyn will not be leader for long. Weirdly, this helps him get more votes."TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting. I did write about this a few weeks ago.
Top pollster Stephan Shakespeare will be analysing the state of the parties exclusively for the Standard during the General Election campaign. Today the CEO and founder of YouGov says the latest evidence indicates many traditional Labour voters are preparing to ‘hold their nose’ and back the party again despite doubts over Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-polls-jeremy-corbyn-could-benefit-as-labour-voters-hold-noses-to-back-party-a3533271.html
Oh really.....Corbyn appears to have different ideas.0 -
Taking back control.Scott_P said:0 -
I think if they limit their losses to the 4 NE Welsh seats and Bridgend, then Labour will have done well in the circumstances. Better than minus 5 would be astonishing.Black_Rook said:
If Welsh Labour is to outperform expectations then differential swings will be the key. If their core in South Wales holds up well then they can lose every seat in the North and still salvage their largest party status.chestnut said:Yougov Wales tables
April: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7gwin3hqbl/WelshBarometerResults_April17_w.pdf
May: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/r0t11owx6f/WelshBarometer_May7th_WestminsterVI.pdf
It looks like Labour's uptick is South Wales and taking votes from Plaid and the Lib Dems.
I was mildly surprised at the resilience of the Labour vote in Cardiff, because the Council has been a disaster in recent years (allegations of bullying within the ruling group, defections and factionalism, together with contentious cost-cutting).
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In which direction?Scott_P said:0 -
How worried is Angus Robertson?
Apparent theSNPs little helpersGreens have agreed not to stand against him0
