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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON drop 5 in latest ComRes phone survey to equal the party
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON drop 5 in latest ComRes phone survey to equal the party’s lowest point ever point in this polling series
The latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy out and sees a big drop in the CON share to equal its lowest ever share with the firm. At the same time we see OTH increase from 8% in September to 13% now.
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I'm assuming all this focus on energy/nuclear has seen a boost for the greens?
Anyhow, #MIC time
Probably most useful is that it shows that Ed Miliband has been able to maintain momentum after his conference speech
So much for my theory that we're back to two party politics
I tell you what I bet if you baxter this the MP results will tell you it's back to two party politics.
You think at the general election UKIP and Others are going to score 25%?
"Will it be the Grangemouth/Unite dispute, the continuing improvement in the economy, Miliband's PMQ's/Energy strategy or Ed Miliband the conman that has impacted on and moved opinion up or down? "
Or, none of the above ?
This is consistent with these polls up to a point although the fall in Labour support is curious. The level of others is absurdly high. SNP supporters may get very excited when they see the Scottish sub-sample.
Con 220
Lab 370
UKIP 0
LD 32
Lab Majority 90
Hmmm.. I know Ed's not doing a great job, but it's hard to believe that one in four voters is so disillusioned with him that, despite not saying they'll support either of the two government parties, they won't even give the opposition a nominal, cost-free protest nod in an opinion poll.
Probably one for the bin.
An outlier really. But the supplementaries will be interesting.
Ed is going to win a majority which is something no tory leader has been capable of for 21 years and won't be for at least another 7.
(Arf, arf, etc)
I don't recall the detail of the last two ComRes polls - was the last one during the conference season, so prompting a spike? Even so, while the Tory conference went reasonably well, it wouldn't explain a significant rise and I can't really think of much to explain a significant drop now, still less to explain a significant drop that benefits neither Labour nor the Lib Dems. Indeed, the responses to the economic questions look even weirder when set against the VI responses: confidence in both major parties is up but support is strongly down. Not sure I'll be giving this one too much weight.
What we've seen is Lab up on average 1.01%, but the Tories up 1.81%
As to those with a pathetic and fawning faith in Baxter's method, I say get your abucuses out and count in a 4th major party.
Either way, you should be terrified. It is now beyond any possible shadow of a doubt that Ed Miliband would be even worse than Brown as PM, and certainly very rapidly more unpopular. Quite how Labour supporters can view the prospect with equanimity defeats me.
Of course, the sensible ones - known in the trade as 'Blairites' - are indeed tearing their hair out at the prospect. Meanwhile, smart people, whether Labour supporters or not, will be arranging their affairs to mitigate the damage.
Yes that is possible but you have knocked almost 50% of the figure in this poll!
And who might they be?
Difficult to take this poll seriously at the moment.
Phil Roberts isn't your alter ego is he ?
Anyway I thought you were a Liverpool fan.
But when we keep winning these majorities and your 50k membership party - or whatever it is in a few years time - can't, you may need to totally reappraise how you look at things.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Me? Phil Roberts?
Never, I'd never troll PB, honest.
Labout lead overall at circa. 5%.
Not that I'd expect a Labour supporter to understand that.
It's a reference to the discussions that Neil and Carola have had vis a vis Brighton, and the Green Council which could cost Ms Lucas her seat in 2015.
Note the question mark at the end of my original comment, it wasn't me stating a fact, but an observation.
Edit: And it's not me saying UKIP not winning a seat, but Martin Baxter, he has a good track record, perhaps some Kippers could come up a seat prediction model and/or name the seats the Purples are going to take in 2015.
LOL
I don't know it went directly to the Greens...but since Greens are up massively and all the Tory decrease has gone to minor parties, I think we can safely assume this poll is an outlier and a significant portion of the Tory vote has leaked to others. After all, COMRES is on its own in suggesting a fall in the Tory vote....Populus (NC) and Survation (narrowing in the lead) contradict such an odd result.
But only time will tell, I guess. I always remain sceptical about polling movements until they are consistently maintained (i.e. 3-5 polls suggest the same movement).
I'm intensely relaxed about only being 4-6% behind with 18 months to go.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8315
ludicrous even by your own dismal standards.
By 80% to 17% those in the ComRes/Indy poll say they back the energy price frees. Only 41%, though, believe that EdM can deliver
But of course a Conservative majority looks as difficult as we all knew it would be, with Cameron having to deal with the worst economic legacy since at least the 1930s and with all the other difficulties (LibDems, boundaries which help Labour, etc etc). The biggest risk is a hung parliament with no stable combination of parties to form a government, the second biggest risk is a weak Labour-led government, the third is a Miliband majority. All significant dangers for the country.
Cameron only has 18 months left as PM. He probably will never get back on top. So its a fair point by Tim.
I am hoping we can make it 3 in a row. No Tory Majority for 40 years seems good to me.
A mere, paltry, insignificant 4-6% deficit and 18 months to go (and lots more quarters of GDP growth).
Mind you Millipede does come accross as Creepy and Zombie like. But of course it's nearly Halloween. so he seems normal.
Progressives 47%
Tory/UKIP 40%
Twitter
Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli 12m
A 35 point drop since May 2012 - Hollande is now the most unpopular French President on record pic.twitter.com/vqV8h77WME
http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/28/21213547-obama-admin-knew-millions-could-not-keep-their-health-insurance?lite
There's nothing progressive about the Greens.
But it is fun to see PB Tories expecting to be in the lead and falling further behind!
Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un Président pour encourager les autres
A very interesting depiction of modern Britain, and surprisingly open minded.
One thought though. If he does stand again in 2016 and survives the first round even if Marie Le Pen tops the poll, he will be re-elected with a huge majority (like Jacques Chirac). All he needs is around 20-23%. The traditional centre-right is in complete disarray at the moment.