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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON drop 5 in latest ComRes phone survey to equal the party

SystemSystem Posts: 12,587
edited October 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON drop 5 in latest ComRes phone survey to equal the party’s lowest point ever point in this polling series

The latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy out and sees a big drop in the CON share to equal its lowest ever share with the firm. At the same time we see OTH increase from 8% in September to 13% now.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    Interesting
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    I guess us Blues will be calling it Comedy Results.

    I'm assuming all this focus on energy/nuclear has seen a boost for the greens?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Relatively obvious from that start point, despite the nonsense on the previous thread.

    Anyhow, #MIC time
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    What a bloody anti-climax. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    The others score renders this poll pretty pointless other than a trend analysis which is that after a closing of the polls Labour seem to have stopped and started to reverse this trend.

    Probably most useful is that it shows that Ed Miliband has been able to maintain momentum after his conference speech
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    edited October 2013
    Sleazy Broken Tories and Lab on the slide.

    So much for my theory that we're back to two party politics
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Okay - hands up. I called this badly wrong.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    Hold everything....UKIP +12 at 12....did they start at zero :-)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BNP? Greens? SNP? PC?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP aren't up 12% as shown in the chart...
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    TSE

    I tell you what I bet if you baxter this the MP results will tell you it's back to two party politics.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    Yet another poll showing the party in first place struggling to get past 35%. If they can't do it now they probably won't manage it on polling day — (not just Labour but the Tories as well).
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Andy

    You think at the general election UKIP and Others are going to score 25%?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FPT: @Fitalass 8:15 pm:

    "Will it be the Grangemouth/Unite dispute, the continuing improvement in the economy, Miliband's PMQ's/Energy strategy or Ed Miliband the conman that has impacted on and moved opinion up or down? "

    Or, none of the above ?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Labour score mediocre in this clear outlier.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,955
    There is no doubt that there has been a trend back in favour of Labour since Ed came up with the wheeze of bribing voters with someone else's money rather than self-evidently non-existent government funds.

    This is consistent with these polls up to a point although the fall in Labour support is curious. The level of others is absurdly high. SNP supporters may get very excited when they see the Scottish sub-sample.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    edited October 2013
    In my best John Snow voice, brace yourselves, I'm coming in dry , Peter Snow voice, just for fun, this poll Baxtered,

    Con 220

    Lab 370

    UKIP 0

    LD 32

    Lab Majority 90
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    25% others including UKIP?

    Hmmm.. I know Ed's not doing a great job, but it's hard to believe that one in four voters is so disillusioned with him that, despite not saying they'll support either of the two government parties, they won't even give the opposition a nominal, cost-free protest nod in an opinion poll.

    Probably one for the bin.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Greens 5 SNP 3 Plaid 1 BNP 1 Other others 4
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    It's a straight swing from Tories to others. Greens ?

    An outlier really. But the supplementaries will be interesting.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Greens on 5%
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    MarkSenior said:

    Greens 5 SNP 3 Plaid 1 BNP 1 Other others 4

    Respect? The Monster Raving Loony Party?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RichardNabavi said:

    25% others including UKIP?

    Hmmm.. I know Ed's not doing a great job, but it's hard to believe that one in four voters is so disillusioned with him that, despite not saying they'll support either of the two government parties, they won't even give the opposition a nominal protest nod in an opinion poll.

    Probably one for the bin.

    Tories lose 5 points and it's all Ed's fault ! The great Nabavi summary.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Richard

    Ed is going to win a majority which is something no tory leader has been capable of for 21 years and won't be for at least another 7.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IOS said:

    Andy

    You think at the general election UKIP and Others are going to score 25%?

    A possible result is Lab 35%, Con 35%, LD 15%, UKIP 10%, Others 5%. So 15% rather than 25%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    So the Greens are going to lose Brighton but win a load of seats elsewhere?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    RichardNabavi said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Greens 5 SNP 3 Plaid 1 BNP 1 Other others 4



    The Monster Raving Loony Party?
    They are on 28%

    (Arf, arf, etc)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    IOS said:

    Richard

    Ed is going to win a majority which is something no tory leader has been capable of for 21 years and won't be for at least another 7.

    Oh No He's Not!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think we can say this: the chances of this poll being backed up by other surveys is rather low.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    13% for Others (excluding UKIP - fully 25% including them)? That's a very funny poll.

    I don't recall the detail of the last two ComRes polls - was the last one during the conference season, so prompting a spike? Even so, while the Tory conference went reasonably well, it wouldn't explain a significant rise and I can't really think of much to explain a significant drop now, still less to explain a significant drop that benefits neither Labour nor the Lib Dems. Indeed, the responses to the economic questions look even weirder when set against the VI responses: confidence in both major parties is up but support is strongly down. Not sure I'll be giving this one too much weight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    I've been doing some number crunching of the polls, there's been a definite narrowing in the Lab lead, prior to this.

    What we've seen is Lab up on average 1.01%, but the Tories up 1.81%
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    When Ed wins a majority, Dan Hodges next article after the election will have to start "Ed Miliband winning the election and gaining a majority is an absolute disaster for Ed Miliband and the Labour Party and is a gift to the Conservative Party".....surely.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Teehee. Despite MarkSenior others I have a feeling that most of those are UKIP supporters too.

    As to those with a pathetic and fawning faith in Baxter's method, I say get your abucuses out and count in a 4th major party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Greens got 1% in 2010 so 5% is quite a significant increase.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    IOS said:

    Richard

    Ed is going to win a majority which is something no tory leader has been capable of for 21 years and won't be for at least another 7.

    Quite possibly, although I think a hung parliament is more likely.

    Either way, you should be terrified. It is now beyond any possible shadow of a doubt that Ed Miliband would be even worse than Brown as PM, and certainly very rapidly more unpopular. Quite how Labour supporters can view the prospect with equanimity defeats me.

    Of course, the sensible ones - known in the trade as 'Blairites' - are indeed tearing their hair out at the prospect. Meanwhile, smart people, whether Labour supporters or not, will be arranging their affairs to mitigate the damage.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Andy

    Yes that is possible but you have knocked almost 50% of the figure in this poll!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    There is no doubt that there has been a trend back in favour of Labour since Ed came up with the wheeze of bribing voters with someone else's money rather than self-evidently non-existent government funds.

    This is consistent with these polls up to a point although the fall in Labour support is curious. The level of others is absurdly high. SNP supporters may get very excited when they see the Scottish sub-sample.

    Cameron has been a bag of shite since Syria.
    The Syrian vote has hit Cameron though it was not obvious at the time. Ed has been on the up since that night. The conference speech simply reinforced that particularly amongst left of centre voters who have finally accepted him.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been doing some number crunching of the polls, there's been a definite narrowing in the Lab lead, prior to this.

    What we've seen is Lab up on average 1.01%, but the Tories up 1.81%

    Over what period?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IOS said:

    Andy

    Yes that is possible but you have knocked almost 50% of the figure in this poll!

    Others on 25% in this poll is clearly a massive outlier.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Other Others" on 4%?

    And who might they be?

    Difficult to take this poll seriously at the moment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    compouter1 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been doing some number crunching of the polls, there's been a definite narrowing in the Lab lead, prior to this.

    What we've seen is Lab up on average 1.01%, but the Tories up 1.81%

    Over what period?
    Since the end of August
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,959
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I guess us Blues will be calling it Comedy Results.

    I'm assuming all this focus on energy/nuclear has seen a boost for the greens?

    'us Blues' ???

    Phil Roberts isn't your alter ego is he ?

    Anyway I thought you were a Liverpool fan.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The 5% increase in OTH is made up of Greens up 2 to 5% and "Other others" up 3 to 4%
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Well you would think that Richard.

    But when we keep winning these majorities and your 50k membership party - or whatever it is in a few years time - can't, you may need to totally reappraise how you look at things.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    IOS said:

    Andy

    Yes that is possible but you have knocked almost 50% of the figure in this poll!

    Others on 25% in this poll is clearly a massive outlier.
    We have had UKIP on 17% which is also Others [ incl. UKIP ] = 25%.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited October 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    compouter1 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been doing some number crunching of the polls, there's been a definite narrowing in the Lab lead, prior to this.

    What we've seen is Lab up on average 1.01%, but the Tories up 1.81%

    Over what period?
    Since the end of August
    Looks more like the lead has flattened since September but was falling before that

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    "Other Others" on 4%?

    And who might they be?

    Difficult to take this poll seriously at the moment.

    Other others will include Respect , Eng Dems , Independents , Independent Kidderminster Hospitals , OMRLP , Christian Party and numerous others .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I guess us Blues will be calling it Comedy Results.

    I'm assuming all this focus on energy/nuclear has seen a boost for the greens?

    'us Blues' ???

    Phil Roberts isn't your alter ego is he ?

    Anyway I thought you were a Liverpool fan.
    I am a Liverpool fan.

    Me? Phil Roberts?

    Never, I'd never troll PB, honest.
  • Matt1001Matt1001 Posts: 15
    Results look very odd to me. COMRES has a history of producing the occasional odd poll and the cross-breaks look very strange to me. The Tories down to mid single figures in Wales??? The Greens now at 5%??? The fact that all of the Tory decrease has gone to OTHERS makes it odd for me.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the Greens are going to lose Brighton but win a load of seats elsewhere?

    What, TSE! All the time you are braying that UKIP with ranges from 12% to 23% aren't going to get a seat. Yet the Greens with 5% will? I know that the thought of UKIP gaining parliamentary seats turns your bladder to water, but do keep a sense of proportion.
  • Matt1001Matt1001 Posts: 15
    Of course, Populus (out today) and Survation show no such fall in the Tory vote. Worth mentioning. So COMRES out on its own.

    Labout lead overall at circa. 5%.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    IOS said:

    Well you would think that Richard.

    But when we keep winning these majorities and your 50k membership party - or whatever it is in a few years time - can't, you may need to totally reappraise how you look at things.

    Why? A disaster for the country is the issue, not the Conservative Party, which is a means to good government, not an end in itself.

    Not that I'd expect a Labour supporter to understand that.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Matt1001 said:

    Results look very odd to me. COMRES has a history of producing the occasional odd poll and the cross-breaks look very strange to me. The Tories down to mid single figures in Wales??? The Greens now at 5%??? The fact that all of the Tory decrease has gone to OTHERS makes it odd for me.

    How do you know it went straight over to the Greens ? It could have gone to the Lib Dems who in turn lost a similat % to the Greens.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the Greens are going to lose Brighton but win a load of seats elsewhere?

    What, TSE! All the time you are braying that UKIP with ranges from 12% to 23% aren't going to get a seat. Yet the Greens with 5% will? I know that the thought of UKIP gaining parliamentary seats turns your bladder to water, but do keep a sense of proportion.
    I believe Signor Eagles was not entirely serious in that post.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    edited October 2013
    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the Greens are going to lose Brighton but win a load of seats elsewhere?

    What, TSE! All the time you are braying that UKIP with ranges from 12% to 23% aren't going to get a seat. Yet the Greens with 5% will? I know that the thought of UKIP gaining parliamentary seats turns your bladder to water, but do keep a sense of proportion.
    Calm down dear.

    It's a reference to the discussions that Neil and Carola have had vis a vis Brighton, and the Green Council which could cost Ms Lucas her seat in 2015.

    Note the question mark at the end of my original comment, it wasn't me stating a fact, but an observation.

    Edit: And it's not me saying UKIP not winning a seat, but Martin Baxter, he has a good track record, perhaps some Kippers could come up a seat prediction model and/or name the seats the Purples are going to take in 2015.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RichardNabavi said:

    IOS said:

    Well you would think that Richard.

    But when we keep winning these majorities and your 50k membership party - or whatever it is in a few years time - can't, you may need to totally reappraise how you look at things.

    Why? A disaster for the country is the issue, not the Conservative Party, which is a means to good government, not an end in itself.

    Not that I'd expect a Labour supporter to understand that.
    Are we a teeny weeny upset tonight ? Expectations were high. Even expectations management was in full swing. Even Fitalass has gone off-site.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    ComRes

    LOL
  • Matt1001Matt1001 Posts: 15
    @Surbiton,

    I don't know it went directly to the Greens...but since Greens are up massively and all the Tory decrease has gone to minor parties, I think we can safely assume this poll is an outlier and a significant portion of the Tory vote has leaked to others. After all, COMRES is on its own in suggesting a fall in the Tory vote....Populus (NC) and Survation (narrowing in the lead) contradict such an odd result.

    But only time will tell, I guess. I always remain sceptical about polling movements until they are consistently maintained (i.e. 3-5 polls suggest the same movement).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    I will wear a Man U shirt in Liverpool one if the others excluding UKIP poll 13% at the GE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,955
    If the greens get 5% of the vote in the general election in 2015 I promise to go vegetarian for a month. And drink no alcohol for the same period. Yes I am that confident.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    surbiton said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    IOS said:

    Well you would think that Richard.

    But when we keep winning these majorities and your 50k membership party - or whatever it is in a few years time - can't, you may need to totally reappraise how you look at things.

    Why? A disaster for the country is the issue, not the Conservative Party, which is a means to good government, not an end in itself.

    Not that I'd expect a Labour supporter to understand that.
    Are we a teeny weeny upset tonight ? Expectations were high. Even expectations management was in full swing. Even Fitalass has gone off-site.
    Not in the slightest. If you read the previous thread, I predicted this would be an outlier because of the 'big changes' since the last poll. That was the giveaway.

    I'm intensely relaxed about only being 4-6% behind with 18 months to go.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Anthony Wells on the ComRes:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8315
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    RichardNabavi said:

    25% others including UKIP?

    Hmmm.. I know Ed's not doing a great job, but it's hard to believe that one in four voters is so disillusioned with him that, despite not saying they'll support either of the two government parties, they won't even give the opposition a nominal, cost-free protest nod in an opinion poll.

    Probably one for the bin.

    I'd generally agree - looks to be a rogue.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,452
    One question, was the field work for this ComRes poll carried over the English half term weekend? Kids just went back to school up here today after the Tattie holidays.
    compouter1 said:

    What a bloody anti-climax. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    compouter1 said:

    When Ed wins a majority, Dan Hodges next article after the election will have to start "Ed Miliband winning the election and gaining a majority is an absolute disaster for Ed Miliband and the Labour Party and is a gift to the Conservative Party".....surely.

    Richard N has already written it for him, two posts up.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    tim said:

    Are we seeing the beginning of the end for Brand Cameron.
    He's been all over the place, reactive, tetchy, angry, petulant and panicky.
    Ed needs to keep the pressure up and help Dave to destroy his own credibility, he's always been his own worst enemy.

    You on the sauce again and it's only Monday?

    ludicrous even by your own dismal standards.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 9m

    By 80% to 17% those in the ComRes/Indy poll say they back the energy price frees. Only 41%, though, believe that EdM can deliver
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Bobajob said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    25% others including UKIP?

    Hmmm.. I know Ed's not doing a great job, but it's hard to believe that one in four voters is so disillusioned with him that, despite not saying they'll support either of the two government parties, they won't even give the opposition a nominal, cost-free protest nod in an opinion poll.

    Probably one for the bin.

    I'd generally agree - looks to be a rogue.
    It is certainly an outlier but the 5% lead is about correct. I want to read the details.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Newsnight - Balls failure to follow due process in the Shoesmith case means she gets £600k payout.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    surbiton said:

    Are we a teeny weeny upset tonight ? Expectations were high. Even expectations management was in full swing. Even Fitalass has gone off-site.

    An 8-point Labour lead in a poll with 25% others? Hardly stuff to get upset about.

    But of course a Conservative majority looks as difficult as we all knew it would be, with Cameron having to deal with the worst economic legacy since at least the 1930s and with all the other difficulties (LibDems, boundaries which help Labour, etc etc). The biggest risk is a hung parliament with no stable combination of parties to form a government, the second biggest risk is a weak Labour-led government, the third is a Miliband majority. All significant dangers for the country.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    surbiton said:

    Bobajob said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    25% others including UKIP?

    Hmmm.. I know Ed's not doing a great job, but it's hard to believe that one in four voters is so disillusioned with him that, despite not saying they'll support either of the two government parties, they won't even give the opposition a nominal, cost-free protest nod in an opinion poll.

    Probably one for the bin.

    I'd generally agree - looks to be a rogue.
    It is certainly an outlier but the 5% lead is about correct. I want to read the details.
    Eh? It's an eight point lead
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,452
    When did I disappear from the site tonight, I was posting at the end of the last thread and just posted on this one? God you really are puerile.
    surbiton said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    IOS said:

    Well you would think that Richard.

    But when we keep winning these majorities and your 50k membership party - or whatever it is in a few years time - can't, you may need to totally reappraise how you look at things.

    Why? A disaster for the country is the issue, not the Conservative Party, which is a means to good government, not an end in itself.

    Not that I'd expect a Labour supporter to understand that.
    Are we a teeny weeny upset tonight ? Expectations were high. Even expectations management was in full swing. Even Fitalass has gone off-site.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    John

    Cameron only has 18 months left as PM. He probably will never get back on top. So its a fair point by Tim.

    I am hoping we can make it 3 in a row. No Tory Majority for 40 years seems good to me.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 9m

    By 80% to 17% those in the ComRes/Indy poll say they back the energy price frees. Only 41%, though, believe that EdM can deliver

    The poll found that 4 in 5 UK adults were Marxists
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    edited October 2013
    IOS said:

    John

    Cameron only has 18 months left as PM. He probably will never get back on top. So its a fair point by Tim.

    I am hoping we can make it 3 in a row. No Tory Majority for 40 years seems good to me.

    Son, prepare to be one very disappointed lad on the morning after the night before in May 2015.

    A mere, paltry, insignificant 4-6% deficit and 18 months to go (and lots more quarters of GDP growth).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    Bobajob said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 9m

    By 80% to 17% those in the ComRes/Indy poll say they back the energy price frees. Only 41%, though, believe that EdM can deliver

    The poll found that 4 in 5 UK adults were Marxists
    I prefer to think it shows the electorate knows Ed is all fart and no follow through
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,181
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting

    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!!!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JohnO said:

    tim said:

    Are we seeing the beginning of the end for Brand Cameron.
    He's been all over the place, reactive, tetchy, angry, petulant and panicky.
    Ed needs to keep the pressure up and help Dave to destroy his own credibility, he's always been his own worst enemy.

    You on the sauce again and it's only Monday?

    ludicrous even by your own dismal standards.
    My my, JohnO, for once I agree with out tim. Cammo has been over the place, reactive, tetchy, angry, petulant and panicky. You must not let ideology (though I doubt that the Tories have any ideology left) blind you to the facts that U Turn Cammo is now known for his zig-zags.

    Mind you Millipede does come accross as Creepy and Zombie like. But of course it's nearly Halloween. so he seems normal. :D
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    IOS said:

    Well you would think that Richard.

    But when we keep winning these majorities and your 50k membership party - or whatever it is in a few years time - can't, you may need to totally reappraise how you look at things.

    Why? A disaster for the country is the issue, not the Conservative Party, which is a means to good government, not an end in itself.

    Not that I'd expect a Labour supporter to understand that.
    Are we a teeny weeny upset tonight ? Expectations were high. Even expectations management was in full swing. Even Fitalass has gone off-site.
    Not in the slightest. If you read the previous thread, I predicted this would be an outlier because of the 'big changes' since the last poll. That was the giveaway.

    I'm intensely relaxed about only being 4-6% behind with 18 months to go.
    And they say the Tories only have two states of mind - complacency and panic

  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    surbiton said:



    Are we a teeny weeny upset tonight ? Expectations were high. Even expectations management was in full swing. Even Fitalass has gone off-site.

    No, just worried that I might lost my job and have to emigrate again, then go through the whole charade once more.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,181
    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Progressives 47%
    Tory/UKIP 40%
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    CarlottaVance said:

    Newsnight - Balls failure to follow due process in the Shoesmith case means she gets £600k payout.

    She's public sector and deserves it. I'm learning not to be a victim now, and assuming someone else can pay for it.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    Bobajob said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    IOS said:

    Well you would think that Richard.

    But when we keep winning these majorities and your 50k membership party - or whatever it is in a few years time - can't, you may need to totally reappraise how you look at things.

    Why? A disaster for the country is the issue, not the Conservative Party, which is a means to good government, not an end in itself.

    Not that I'd expect a Labour supporter to understand that.
    Are we a teeny weeny upset tonight ? Expectations were high. Even expectations management was in full swing. Even Fitalass has gone off-site.
    Not in the slightest. If you read the previous thread, I predicted this would be an outlier because of the 'big changes' since the last poll. That was the giveaway.

    I'm intensely relaxed about only being 4-6% behind with 18 months to go.
    And they say the Tories only have two states of mind - complacency and panic

    And Labour, as judged by you, IoS, Surbiton and tim have only one state of mind (sic) - Hubris.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    IOS said:

    John

    Cameron only has 18 months left as PM. He probably will never get back on top. So its a fair point by Tim.

    I am hoping we can make it 3 in a row. No Tory Majority for 40 years seems good to me.

    I dunno what's worse. A Labour or Conservative majority, or any coalition involving the Lib Dems. What have we done to only have those god awful choices?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,728
    Odd. I'm reluctant to conclude anything at all from this, and suspect the Tories will pull back over 30 in the next ComRes. I will say that I think the Greens are doing OK (except maybe in Brighton for council reasons)- they are picking up some of the "left wing and plague on all your houses" vote that used to go LibDem.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    Fascinating show on BBC1, Quitting the EDL.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,452
    Betting query, is it now time to take a punt on Hollande lasting the full length of his Presidency? Could he just limp along to the end of his term as a lame duck, but then decide not stand for re-election? If the latter, how would that work, he would have to announce he is standing down in enough time to allow another candidate to be selected to fight the next Presidential election?
    Twitter
    Alberto Nardelli ‏@AlbertoNardelli 12m
    A 35 point drop since May 2012 - Hollande is now the most unpopular French President on record pic.twitter.com/vqV8h77WME
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim is always really hot on ministerial incompetence, so his comments on Ed Balls and Ms Shoesmith should make interesting reading...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Obama now a proven liar. Who sez so? Only an NBC investigation into Obamacare. NBC it should be noted is very lefty and pro Democrat in it's outlook.

    http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/28/21213547-obama-admin-knew-millions-could-not-keep-their-health-insurance?lite
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Progressives 47%
    Tory/UKIP 40%


    There's nothing progressive about the Greens.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    fitalass said:

    Betting query, is it now time to take a punt on Hollande lasting the full length of his Presidency? Could he just limp along to the end of his term as a lame duck, but then decide not stand for re-election? If the latter, how would that work, he would have to announce he is standing down in enough time to allow another candidate to be selected to fight the next Presidential election?
    Twitter
    Alberto Nardelli ‏@AlbertoNardelli 12m
    A 35 point drop since May 2012 - Hollande is now the most unpopular French President on record pic.twitter.com/vqV8h77WME

    I don't think there's any way of getting rid of a French President. The French are stuck with him, les pauvres
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    IOS said:

    John

    Cameron only has 18 months left as PM. He probably will never get back on top. So its a fair point by Tim.

    I am hoping we can make it 3 in a row. No Tory Majority for 40 years seems good to me.

    I dunno what's worse. A Labour or Conservative majority, or any coalition involving the Lib Dems. What have we done to only have those god awful choices?
    By making Simon Cowell rich and The X Factor popular
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    One observation: It seems to me that the Lib Dem vote in the past few months have hardened by a 2/3 points. We no longer see the LD numbers at 6% - 9% which were quite common even a few months back. I am a bit surprised that neither Mike Smithson nor Mark Senior et al have commented on this.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Outlier.

    But it is fun to see PB Tories expecting to be in the lead and falling further behind!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,876
    edited October 2013
    RichardNabavi said:

    fitalass said:

    Betting query, is it now time to take a punt on Hollande lasting the full length of his Presidency? Could he just limp along to the end of his term as a lame duck, but then decide not stand for re-election? If the latter, how would that work, he would have to announce he is standing down in enough time to allow another candidate to be selected to fight the next Presidential election?
    Twitter
    Alberto Nardelli ‏@AlbertoNardelli 12m
    A 35 point drop since May 2012 - Hollande is now the most unpopular French President on record pic.twitter.com/vqV8h77WME

    I don't think there's any way of getting rid of a French President. The French are stuck with him, les pauvres
    Perhaps they may decide to get rid of him

    Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un Président pour encourager les autres
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,452
    Can Hollande chose to resign before the end of his term, or simple step down at the end without running for re-election?
    RichardNabavi said:

    fitalass said:

    Betting query, is it now time to take a punt on Hollande lasting the full length of his Presidency? Could he just limp along to the end of his term as a lame duck, but then decide not stand for re-election? If the latter, how would that work, he would have to announce he is standing down in enough time to allow another candidate to be selected to fight the next Presidential election?
    Twitter
    Alberto Nardelli ‏@AlbertoNardelli 12m
    A 35 point drop since May 2012 - Hollande is now the most unpopular French President on record pic.twitter.com/vqV8h77WME

    I don't think there's any way of getting rid of a French President. The French are stuck with him, les pauvres
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It is fascinating.

    A very interesting depiction of modern Britain, and surprisingly open minded.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Fascinating show on BBC1, Quitting the EDL.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Gerry_Mander said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Newsnight - Balls failure to follow due process in the Shoesmith case means she gets £600k payout.

    She's public sector and deserves it. I'm learning not to be a victim now, and assuming someone else can pay for it.
    The manner in which she was sacked was wrong. I also thought Entwhistle of the BBC was made to resign unfairly. Goodness, he was in the job just a few days.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    RichardNabavi said:

    tim is always really hot on ministerial incompetence, so his comments on Ed Balls and Ms Shoesmith should make interesting reading...

    Could well be bad for Balls - certainly would seem so based on what I read on here, which isn't much admittedly. Haven't seen the Newsnight piece.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    edited October 2013
    @Fitalass - Yes, he could quit - but why? - or not seek re-election.

    One thought though. If he does stand again in 2016 and survives the first round even if Marie Le Pen tops the poll, he will be re-elected with a huge majority (like Jacques Chirac). All he needs is around 20-23%. The traditional centre-right is in complete disarray at the moment.
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