It is too early to predict the number of LD gains. The key is what level of success they enjoy in the Local Elections on May 4th. If they do really well in the deep SW and elsewhere then there will be many more gains that will be seen as probable. If Labour are forced in to a poor 3rd place their vote really could start to melt away and they could then become victims of FPTP.
Philip Hammond really does have an appalling touch, doesn't he?
Doesn't seem to read the mood properly on anything.
I'm not sure this is a gaffe. I suspect it's "in the grid" for today - get that pain out of the way now rather than having it overshadow the manifesto launch when journos say "hang on a minute, didn't it used to say 'no new taxes'..."
Labour tweeting they are missing 411 candidates and appealing for applicants to stand for them
Some proper nutters are going to slip through the cracks.
In that case they should go with people with no social media history! They might be nutters too, but harder to find that out.
It doesn't matter unless they win! Beaconsfield, Witney, Mole Valley, Surrey Heath ... no problem. In fact in the national interest they should stand down in some seats and give the L.Dems a run at it.
Hmmm. Red marginals (esp. super marginals, whatever they are) outnumber blue ones by quite a margin.
I set the marginals class using a matrix of winner 15/ second place 15 & current swings. So a Labour/Con super-marginal goes up to an 8% 2015 margin, but a Con/Lab super-marginal doesn't exist. Did this to try and get a true view of where the battles will happen.
Many thanks, that looks excellent.
Any chance of putting up the data somewhere so we can have a play with various assumptions?
here you go. It is based on BES, Hanretty and some of additions and corrections. The actual change model is a simple script using UNS modified by remain % and size of 3rd place vote to squeeze. I did override a couple of the outputs based on 'gut' :-)
It is too early to predict the number of LD gains. The key is what level of success they enjoy in the Local Elections on May 4th. If they do really well in the deep SW and elsewhere then there will be many more gains that will be seen as probable. If Labour are forced in to a poor 3rd place their vote really could start to melt away and they could then become victims of FPTP.
Locals could give a very bum steer, I fear. Councillors don't get to decide the future relationship of Britain with the EU, nor does their election hasten the day when Comrade Corbyn sets up the first gulags, cheerfully assisted by Salmond and Farron (that's the plan, right, or was I not meant to mention?)
It is too early to predict the number of LD gains. The key is what level of success they enjoy in the Local Elections on May 4th. If they do really well in the deep SW and elsewhere then there will be many more gains that will be seen as probable. If Labour are forced in to a poor 3rd place their vote really could start to melt away and they could then become victims of FPTP.
And on how soon Corbyn's Labour is seen as truly out of the contest. That would both concentrate Labour voters in the shires as to how best to cast their vote, and reassure Tory/LibDem waverers that backing the LD's soft Brexit platform won't somehow let Corbyn into no. 10.
It looks like Labour will only be interviewing potential candidates for currently held seats. Everywhere else they will select from a stack of CVs.
I guess your CV needs to be full of a load of wank about being a deligate to this and a committee member on that, rather than the stuff you are actually good at.
Thanks for all the amazing tips over the last couple of days. Have to sell the house if labour do well!!
Just wondering what folk think about waiting until the locals before selling Lib Dem seats? Think they'll do well and the lines might go up as a result? Slightly scared of committing now in case Labour go into total meltdown and they swap vote shares with Lib Dems!!
Thanks in advance for any replies.
Also, anyone heard from Double Carpet?
Double Carpet (aka Paul Maggs) was on here recently and hopefully we'll see more of him during the GE campaign. Also pleasing to see Peter the Punter make a surprise guest appearance a couple of days ago. PB Old Timers never leave you know ...... they always return eventually!
I did a quick mover/stayer matrix model on seats using current polls, remain % & 2015 results. Ended up with below, which I guess is close to current consensus? NI excluded. UKIP lose one, Green, Plaid static.
Con 385 +54 (win 59 from LAB, 3 from SNP, 1 from UKIP; lose 9 to LD) Lab 164 -68 (no wins, lose 59 to CON, 8 to LD, 1 to SNP) LD 28 +19 (win 8 from LAB, 9 from CON, 3 from SNP) SNP 51 -5 (win 1 from LAB; lose 3 to CON, 3 to LAB)
Tweeted a cartogram map of the battlegrounds to show where the changes are likely to happen.
Interesting. It looks like the biggest concentrations of Labour seats liable to fall to the Tories are in the North of England and Wales, rather than the Midlands? That's because a lot of the potential Labour seats in the Midlands are already Tory.
Although if the swing is not uniform, but Labour do relatively well in inner city areas and less so in small towns and suburbs, then the Midlands might over-perform for the Tories and bring in its share of gains from Lab.
It looks like Labour will only be interviewing potential candidates for currently held seats. Everywhere else they will select from a stack of CVs.
I guess your CV needs to be full of a load of wank about being a deligate to this and a committee member on that, rather than the stuff you are actually good at.
Just wear a 'never kissed a Tory' shirt in any photo included with an application. That should be all that is needed.
Labour tweeting they are missing 411 candidates and appealing for applicants to stand for them
Some proper nutters are going to slip through the cracks.
In that case they should go with people with no social media history! They might be nutters too, but harder to find that out.
It doesn't matter unless they win! Beaconsfield, Witney, Mole Valley, Surrey Heath ... no problem. In fact in the national interest they should stand down in some seats and give the L.Dems a run at it.
Their social media history absolutely matters even if they are in no hope seats.
First thing the papers will get the trainee to do when nominations close is to trawl Twitter for beer-assisted rants about women who wouldn't go out with the Labour candidate for Mole Valley in 2011, and half-formed musings on the state of Israel from a bedsit in Beckenham circa 2009.
The big takeaway from the Unite election is that under McCluskey the union has lost nearly 500,000 members. Unison - which is far less Corbyn friendly - is now the UK's biggest union.
McCluskey won through obtaining the largest plurality (not even a majority of the votes cast) in an FPTP election with a turnout of 12%. People laughed when this happened with the Police and Crime Commissioners.
Still, if people don't bother to vote then this is what they get: rule by the most extreme activists, peddling their niche concerns rather than responding to the needs, interest and will of most members.
If a trade union is nothing more than a mouthpiece for a handful of malignant Trots then it has ceased to serve its proper function and has outlived its usefulness. Indeed, Unite is worse than useless: by promoting and sustaining the Corbyn leadership, it is working to strengthen the arm of the Conservative Party and, therefore, could be argued by more moderate social democrats to be working positively counter to workers' interests.
A question for those of you in the Labour movement to ponder: who has done more harm to the cause, Arthur Scargill or Len McCluskey?
It is too early to predict the number of LD gains. The key is what level of success they enjoy in the Local Elections on May 4th. If they do really well in the deep SW and elsewhere then there will be many more gains that will be seen as probable. If Labour are forced in to a poor 3rd place their vote really could start to melt away and they could then become victims of FPTP.
Locals could give a very bum steer, I fear. Councillors don't get to decide the future relationship of Britain with the EU, nor does their election hasten the day when Comrade Corbyn sets up the first gulags, cheerfully assisted by Salmond and Farron (that's the plan, right, or was I not meant to mention?)
That's not the point - so near to a GE it is the Big Mo and that is how the media will portray it.
Hmmm. Red marginals (esp. super marginals, whatever they are) outnumber blue ones by quite a margin.
I set the marginals class using a matrix of winner 15/ second place 15 & current swings. So a Labour/Con super-marginal goes up to an 8% 2015 margin, but a Con/Lab super-marginal doesn't exist. Did this to try and get a true view of where the battles will happen.
Many thanks, that looks excellent.
Any chance of putting up the data somewhere so we can have a play with various assumptions?
here you go. It is based on BES, Hanretty and some of additions and corrections. The actual change model is a simple script using UNS modified by remain % and size of 3rd place vote to squeeze. I did override a couple of the outputs based on 'gut' :-)
Comments
https://drive.google.com/open?id=167Jlfep9u-9YQ_SSxfxQriMszrRon1GJto94kNpJgJg
As an alumnus of Cambridge, we have form for being the greatest double/sleeper agents in history.
NEW THREAD
I guess your CV needs to be full of a load of wank about being a deligate to this and a committee member on that, rather than the stuff you are actually good at.
PB Old Timers never leave you know ...... they always return eventually!
First thing the papers will get the trainee to do when nominations close is to trawl Twitter for beer-assisted rants about women who wouldn't go out with the Labour candidate for Mole Valley in 2011, and half-formed musings on the state of Israel from a bedsit in Beckenham circa 2009.
Still, if people don't bother to vote then this is what they get: rule by the most extreme activists, peddling their niche concerns rather than responding to the needs, interest and will of most members.
If a trade union is nothing more than a mouthpiece for a handful of malignant Trots then it has ceased to serve its proper function and has outlived its usefulness. Indeed, Unite is worse than useless: by promoting and sustaining the Corbyn leadership, it is working to strengthen the arm of the Conservative Party and, therefore, could be argued by more moderate social democrats to be working positively counter to workers' interests.
A question for those of you in the Labour movement to ponder: who has done more harm to the cause, Arthur Scargill or Len McCluskey?
Tax rises not ruled out whilst overseas aid is protected.
My other half tutted as it was read out on the news, and she's a Labour voting Remainer.