politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yvette Cooper moves into favourite slot as Corbyn’s successor
Comments
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What would the pie charts look like if they were "just" England and Wales. Plaid + SNP makes up 5% or so of the total pie, and the Tories are not in the 40s in Scotland......TheScreamingEagles said:
In the past we've had three polls with Tory leads of 21% twice and one of 24%.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
The hysteria is understandable. Albeit let's not forget Opinium's poll with a Tory lead of 9%0 -
Canvassing for the locals generally good for Lab.Pulpstar said:
How are the vibes round Chesterfield way ? Which ward are you in for the locals ?bigjohnowls said:
Indeed i can see Market Harborogh Engel losingPulpstar said:I'm in a key marginal this time round
A huge issue with establishment Labour members not helping much though as most of candidates Corbynites.
I have had more people say prefer Corbyn to Toby than the other way round.
Chesterfield was lost after Iraq and won back only in 2010 but too soon for Chessy people to forget Lib Dems joining Tories in Government for a significant LD bounceback. I think Lab wil hold 7 of the 9 Chessy seats (currently hold 8)
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That portion that goes to emergency disaster relief is always popular, though. People like to think of themselves as good people, and so want to see the Union Jack flying wherever there is a major catastrophe. Not to do so would be incongruent with our self-image as a nice, fair play nation.rkrkrk said:
Have another review if you want - but it will just find that the vast majority is not misspent. People want it cut but that's because they read (mainly lies) about how it is spent.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
I agree with Richard T yesterday - I think he need to have a big look at how, instead of how much.
It will never be popular. The only vaguely popular angle i can see is a big push to lobby/shame other countries into spending 0.7 of their GDP on aid.
Edit - i should add the conservative manifesto last time had some hints of good thinking around advance market commitments, competitions for global public goods etc. No idea if that's popular but it would be a good idea to do more of that.0 -
We might be creating a situation where expectations for Labour are so low, than even a thorough pounding in seven weeks could allow Corbyn to stay on.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the past we've had three polls with Tory leads of 21% twice and one of 24%.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
The hysteria is understandable. Albeit let's not forget Opinium's poll with a Tory lead of 9%
"See, we didn't do as badly as everyone said we would, and this is due to Jeremy's inspired leadership!"
Which would be funny, if an ELE for the Labour party and bad for the country.0 -
My MiL has said she will die in the Labour Party. She is past 80. She can't stand Corbyn and didn't think much of Ed but it is indeed a part of who she is tied back to doing good works in the community with her new husband 60 years ago. I think there are more such people than you think.Cookie said:
In oercentage terms,hardly anyone is tribally Labour or Tory any more. They may be subject to inertia, or they may be tribally not-Tory or not-Labour, but that's not the same thing. I reckon well under 5% see their party allegiance as immutable and part of their identity.Casino_Royale said:
There are two questions for me. Well, three:glw said:
I agree, but the trouble is I'd need to believe the campaign will improve Labour's polling and I can't believe that. So If I think the campaign will do Labour harm then logically things must get worse, which I can't believe either. I'm stuck thinking "it will get worse, but it can't get worse".DavidL said:But they are already incredibly bad for Labour. Worse than this and you are looking at a SLAB 2015 scenario. And I still can't quite believe that.
(1) To what extent is Labour's brand still strong enough to overcome Corbyn? Oft referred to as the "core" vote. We know it's not zero - there are many people who will turn out and vote Labour regardless because it's as much a part of their identity as their family name, community, or background - but we also know Corbyn is repellent enough to undermine it.
(2) To what extent will this be about Brexit, rather than the economy and leadership? If the electorate view Corbyn as no threat and detect May is on course for a landslide (see 1) they might feel safer in giving the Lib Dems their support, and there could be a LD surge relatively late in the day, denting Theresa's majority.
(3) Fair Play. The British like fair play. Tory gloating and knocking Corbyn out 20 rounds in a row might make them feel sympathetic to him, and dent the Tory majority.
Am I convinced by much of that?
Not really. Even if it's a low turnout election, all the over 65s will still vote (which is what May needs) so the only question is what size her majority is.
Worst case scenario is probably that she only picks up 15-20 seats (net) from Labour, but drops 30-35 to the Lib Dems, leaving her with something like 315 MPs. Best case is she wipes Labour clean, and the LDs fail to perform, and she has well north of 400 MPs.
Either way, the Tories will be leading the next Government with 95%+ confidence.0 -
Not the YouGov with the Tories 24% ahead. That was all post announcement.augustus_carp said:
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
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From memory ICM and YouGov have both done polls post-calling the election haven't they?augustus_carp said:
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
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Good
eveningafternoon all.
Seems I have dropped of the electoral roll recently, but I somehow doubt that Jesse Norman is going to need my help to get elected.
I am pleased to report that it has eventually stopped raining here in the tropics, after a 4 month wet season... in January we had twice the rainfall that Cardiff (the UK's wettest city) gets all year, so now we can get back to work. Ofcourse now the temperature is in the 30s, and with the humidity will feel like the 40s, the electric company has scheduled an all day brown out tomorrow for maintenance, so no aircon or fans... extra-small violins are available at a reasonable rate
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And when campaigning is mainly a contrived TV "event" it may not be entirely wrong. But you're right. I was assuming some adults were still in the building.rottenborough said:
This kind of analysis is predicated on Labour having a standard kind of seat strategy, polling and doing the basics of a campaign.DavidL said:
With hindsight one of the best clues as to what the parties thought was going on in 2015 was where their leadership were deployed. Cameron gunning for Lib Dems and Ed in some of the most marginal Tory seats in the country, way short of what was needed even for largest party. I will be watching that a lot more closely this time.MarqueeMark said:
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.
I expect May and, increasingly, Corbyn to be in Tory targets 51-100. That's looking like the battlefield at the moment (with a secondary battlefront for the Tories in the SW/London against the Lib Dems).
I have seen no evidence since Jezza took over that there is anyone left who is adult enough to do this kind of stuff (or perhaps cares anymore). I suspect they have just lined up a whole string of Momentum-style rallies at various random, mainly safe seats. As long as 300 turn out with a load of placards about NHS privatisation and the whole thing is uploaded to Facebook then everyone can go home happy as the country is clearly heading Corbyn's way.0 -
Thanks for that - sorry, I have trouble keeping up with these things, I should learn to keep my mouth shut.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not the YouGov with the Tories 24% ahead. That was all post announcement.augustus_carp said:
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
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Just heard from someone I know in Rochdale CLP, they are very unhappy about Danczuk. Seems like he was pretty much imposed upon them.
Wonder how hard the local activists will be working for him...0 -
Macron back in to 1.775, Melenchon right out to 21.5, Le Pen back out to 5s from her 4.5 or so last night; Fillon steady at 5.15 or so.0
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That's true.MTimT said:
That portion that goes to emergency disaster relief is always popular, though. People like to think of themselves as good people, and so want to see the Union Jack flying wherever there is a major catastrophe. Not to do so would be incongruent with our self-image as a nice, fair play nation.rkrkrk said:
Have another review if you want - but it will just find that the vast majority is not misspent. People want it cut but that's because they read (mainly lies) about how it is spent.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
I agree with Richard T yesterday - I think he need to have a big look at how, instead of how much.
It will never be popular. The only vaguely popular angle i can see is a big push to lobby/shame other countries into spending 0.7 of their GDP on aid.
Edit - i should add the conservative manifesto last time had some hints of good thinking around advance market commitments, competitions for global public goods etc. No idea if that's popular but it would be a good idea to do more of that.0 -
Miss QC, is Danczuk in trouble and, if so, cui bono?
Mr. Carp, if we all kept our mouths shut when making a mistake it'd be a lot quieter here.
Mr. Indigo, one hopes you have a trusty umbrella.0 -
Icredible decision. Suspended from the party, all sorts of dodgy goings on and general car crash life, hates corbyn, why would labour reinstate him to stand?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just heard from someone I know in Rochdale CLP, they are very unhappy about Danczuk. Seems like he was pretty much imposed upon them.
Wonder how hard the local activists will be working for him...0 -
True. Labour must be reckoning that this way the bad publicity will just be local, and even if he loses the seat they avoid the national spectacle of his standing against the party and the ensuing slanging match.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just heard from someone I know in Rochdale CLP, they are very unhappy about Danczuk. Seems like he was pretty much imposed upon them.
Wonder how hard the local activists will be working for him...0 -
I know its the usual partisan stuff, but I hate that Clive Lewis tweet outright saying, via diagram, that if you don't care about people you should vote Tory. I'd be prepared to vote Labour (though not under Corbyn), but telling people only bad people consider voting otherwise is just plain offensive, as it would be for Tories to suggest only people who care about their country vote Tory.0
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No viable alternative?FrancisUrquhart said:
Icredible decision. Suspended from the party, all sorts of dodgy goings on and general car crash life, hates corbyn, why would labour reinstate him to stand?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just heard from someone I know in Rochdale CLP, they are very unhappy about Danczuk. Seems like he was pretty much imposed upon them.
Wonder how hard the local activists will be working for him...0 -
Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
There have been opinion polls.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
Yes, there is hysteria, and I'm not predicting stratospheric majorities for the Tories, but there is clear evidence that suggests they will win pretty big, it hasn't come from the aether.0 -
I agree, its astonishing in a seat which was held by the LDs for so long. Definitely not red rosette on a donkey territory.FrancisUrquhart said:
Icredible decision. Suspended from the party, all sorts of dodgy goings on and general car crash life, hates corbyn, why would labour reinstate him to stand?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just heard from someone I know in Rochdale CLP, they are very unhappy about Danczuk. Seems like he was pretty much imposed upon them.
Wonder how hard the local activists will be working for him...
There were plenty of reasonable candidates to fill the candidacy. It is utter lunacy to proceed with him, if that's what Lab are planning.
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Ban Ki Moon said in 2012 he thought 30% was lost to corruption (that is what is actually pinched, before we get on to whether the stuff that reaches the intended target is well spent, such as £9m awarded to Ethiopian girl bands http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/department-international-development-priti-patel-defends-foreign-aid-ethiopian-spice-girls-yegna-a7483901.html). 70% is not "the vast majority" of anything.rkrkrk said:
Have another review if you want - but it will just find that the vast majority is not misspent. People want it cut but that's because they read (mainly lies) about how it is spent.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
I agree with Richard T yesterday - I think he need to have a big look at how, instead of how much.
It will never be popular. The only vaguely popular angle i can see is a big push to lobby/shame other countries into spending 0.7 of their GDP on aid.
Edit - i should add the conservative manifesto last time had some hints of good thinking around advance market commitments, competitions for global public goods etc. No idea if that's popular but it would be a good idea to do more of that.
This is the paradigm case of virtue signalling: the well-heeled love to applaud it because it makes them feel virtuous (their money is going via the tax man to heartwarmingly noble causes) at zero cost (because they get taxed anyway, regardless of how the money is spent).0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Icredible decision. Suspended from the party, all sorts of dodgy goings on and general car crash life, hates corbyn, why would labour reinstate him to stand?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just heard from someone I know in Rochdale CLP, they are very unhappy about Danczuk. Seems like he was pretty much imposed upon them.
Wonder how hard the local activists will be working for him...
I think he threatened to stand as an independent.
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Rule of thumb - don't worry about looking silly on the internet, ever.augustus_carp said:
Thanks for that - sorry, I have trouble keeping up with these things, I should learn to keep my mouth shut.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not the YouGov with the Tories 24% ahead. That was all post announcement.augustus_carp said:
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
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After listening to a few minutes of Jeremy Vine's Radio 2 show this morning I almost feel like supporting Corbyn and Labour at the election. Loads of people earning £70k claiming they're "not rich". Sorry, but when the average is £22k you definitely are. Just because they are a few ultra-wealthy people making you feel "poor" doesn't change that.0
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The socialist republic of bristol west. All very Islington and unlike swindon a place where jezza rep is quite good.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/anything-but-the-tories-bristol-west-voters-weigh-up-their-options?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
The Tories, I reckon:Morris_Dancer said:Miss QC, is Danczuk in trouble and, if so, cui bono?
Mr. Carp, if we all kept our mouths shut when making a mistake it'd be a lot quieter here.
Mr. Indigo, one hopes you have a trusty umbrella.Lab 20,961 46.1% +9.8%
UKIP 8,519 18.8% +14.4%
Con 7,742 17.0% -1.0%
LD 4,667 10.3% -24.2%
Green 1,382 3.0% +3.0%
Other 2,159 4.8% -2.0%0 -
Wow, that's evidence were it needed that UKIP is finishedFrancisUrquhart said:Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
kle4 said:
Rule of thumb - don't worry about looking silly on the internet, ever.augustus_carp said:
Thanks for that - sorry, I have trouble keeping up with these things, I should learn to keep my mouth shut.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not the YouGov with the Tories 24% ahead. That was all post announcement.augustus_carp said:
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
Would be a world first on PB, keeping quiet, whether right or wrong. Who cares? More power to your elbow.augustus_carp said:
Thanks for that - sorry, I have trouble keeping up with these things, I should learn to keep my mouth shut.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not the YouGov with the Tories 24% ahead. That was all post announcement.augustus_carp said:
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
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Here we are all:
I'm a wishy-washy* Lib Dem supporter who voted for Brexit and quite like the Conservatives at the moment too.
Family are all dyed in the wool Labour supporters (albeit I hear mutterings about Corbyn).
I live in Bootle.
Who should I vote for between Lib Dem or Conservative?
*All Lib Dems are wishy-washy according to my mother in law.0 -
The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).0
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AlsoIndigo said:
Good
eveningafternoon all.
Seems I have dropped of the electoral roll recently, but I somehow doubt that Jesse Norman is going to need my help to get elected.
I am pleased to report that it has eventually stopped raining here in the tropics, after a 4 month wet season... in January we had twice the rainfall that Cardiff (the UK's wettest city) gets all year, so now we can get back to work. Ofcourse now the temperature is in the 30s, and with the humidity will feel like the 40s, the electric company has scheduled an all day brown out tomorrow for maintenance, so no aircon or fans... extra-small violins are available at a reasonable rate
Sound awful. Hot weather inside the office/home is oppressive, horrible. I'd hate to live in a climate like that. Most Brits don't know how lucky we are.0 -
Mr. Price, cheers for the Yellow Box of Knowledge.
I agree. But I'd want nice odds to back it.0 -
The Labour Targeting strategy may depend on how Left wing an MP is and how loyal they have been to Coybyn. With most of the leader visits being to seats where his friends and supporters are standing.rottenborough said:
This kind of analysis is predicated on Labour having a standard kind of seat strategy, polling and doing the basics of a campaign.DavidL said:
With hindsight one of the best clues as to what the parties thought was going on in 2015 was where their leadership were deployed. Cameron gunning for Lib Dems and Ed in some of the most marginal Tory seats in the country, way short of what was needed even for largest party. I will be watching that a lot more closely this time.MarqueeMark said:
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.
I expect May and, increasingly, Corbyn to be in Tory targets 51-100. That's looking like the battlefield at the moment (with a secondary battlefront for the Tories in the SW/London against the Lib Dems).
I have seen no evidence since Jezza took over that there is anyone left who is adult enough to do this kind of stuff (or perhaps cares anymore). I suspect they have just lined up a whole string of Momentum-style rallies at various random, mainly safe seats. As long as 300 turn out with a load of placards about NHS privatisation and the whole thing is uploaded to Facebook then everyone can go home happy as the country is clearly heading Corbyn's way.
This strategy may have the opposite result to that wished for, having Corbyn visit your constituency and having photos of him and the Labour candidate standing next to each over in the local paper will IMO inches the chances that that seat terns to a Tory Gain!
Still that's probably in the long term interests of the labour party.0 -
Agreed. I knew people at uni who outright stated the idea of voting for someone other than Labour honestly never occured to them, it was already a part of their identity. Now, some of that may stay at home, which helps the Tories, but changing it is very hard. A 62 year old I know who has only voted once, in the EU referendum, and does not intended to again, still described themselves to me as a 'Labour man' (even though I think their views seem to accord more with the Tories or UKIP, frankly, and they despise Corbyn). Some like that who do vote will never shift, and its a question of how many hold their nose for the Corbyn party.DavidL said:
My MiL has said she will die in the Labour Party. She is past 80. She can't stand Corbyn and didn't think much of Ed but it is indeed a part of who she is tied back to doing good works in the community with her new husband 60 years ago. I think there are more such people than you think.Cookie said:
In oercentage terms,hardly anyone is tribally Labour or Tory any more. They may be subject to inertia, or they may be tribally not-Tory or not-Labour, but that's not the same thing. I reckon well under 5% see their party allegiance as immutable and part of their identity.Casino_Royale said:
There are two questions for me. Well, three:glw said:
I agree, but the trouble is I'd need to believe the campaign will improve Labour's polling and I can't believe that. So If I think the campaign will do Labour harm then logically things must get worse, which I can't believe either. I'm stuck thinking "it will get worse, but it can't get worse".DavidL said:But they are already incredibly bad for Labour. Worse than this and you are looking at a SLAB 2015 scenario. And I still can't quite believe that.
(1) To what extent is Labour's brand still strong enough to overcome Corbyn? Oft referred to as the "core" vote. We know it's not zero - there are many people who will turn out and vote Labour regardless because it's as much a part of their identity as their family name, community, or background - but we also know Corbyn is repellent enough to undermine it.
(3) Fair Play. The British like fair play. Tory gloating and knocking Corbyn out 20 rounds in a row might make them feel sympathetic to him, and dent the Tory majority.
Am I convinced by much of that?
Not really. Even if it's a low turnout election, all the over 65s will still vote (which is what May needs) so the only question is what size her majority is.
Either way, the Tories will be leading the next Government with 95%+ confidence.0 -
TheValiant said:
Here we are all:
I'm a wishy-washy* Lib Dem supporter who voted for Brexit and quite like the Conservatives at the moment too.
Family are all dyed in the wool Labour supporters (albeit I hear mutterings about Corbyn).
I live in Bootle.
Who should I vote for between Lib Dem or Conservative?
*All Lib Dems are wishy-washy according to my mother in law.
Conservative. LDs do not support Brexit (trying to reverse it).
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Coral go 1-3 for UKIP under 10%. Last GE they were 12.6%, 1-3 looks big to me.FrancisUrquhart said:Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
People who vote Tory eat babies and the like. Nasty folk.kle4 said:I know its the usual partisan stuff, but I hate that Clive Lewis tweet outright saying, via diagram, that if you don't care about people you should vote Tory. I'd be prepared to vote Labour (though not under Corbyn), but telling people only bad people consider voting otherwise is just plain offensive, as it would be for Tories to suggest only people who care about their country vote Tory.
0 -
But first ask the Conservatives how Brexit will precisely benefit Bootle.MarkHopkins said:TheValiant said:Here we are all:
I'm a wishy-washy* Lib Dem supporter who voted for Brexit and quite like the Conservatives at the moment too.
Family are all dyed in the wool Labour supporters (albeit I hear mutterings about Corbyn).
I live in Bootle.
Who should I vote for between Lib Dem or Conservative?
*All Lib Dems are wishy-washy according to my mother in law.
Conservative. LDs do not support Brexit (trying to reverse it).
0 -
No farage, Walter Mitty in charge, brexit & too broke to stand in lots of constituencies. Doesn't look good for them.Pulpstar said:
Coral go 1-3 for UKIP under 10%. Last GE they were 12.6%, 1-3 looks big to me.FrancisUrquhart said:Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
I have spent time recently in the North East, around Lanchester in County Durham. This areas is SO different to how it was in even the recent past, in terms of how it looks and feels. Virtually all visible traces of the industrial past have gone and you drive through mile upon mile of incredibly beautiful countryside and affluent little villages and towns (Wolsingham, Lanchester etc). If it were in Yorkshire or Northumberland this area would be Tory (solidly so in Yorks) yet it is currently all red. I could see NW Durham (10k majority) being a surprise Con Gain in 2017. I am not overlooking the existence of Consett but wonder if it will be out voted this time.0
-
Does your support of the non-Brexit parts of the LD platform outweigh your support for the Tories' current direction?TheValiant said:Here we are all:
I'm a wishy-washy* Lib Dem supporter who voted for Brexit and quite like the Conservatives at the moment too.
Family are all dyed in the wool Labour supporters (albeit I hear mutterings about Corbyn).
I live in Bootle.
Who should I vote for between Lib Dem or Conservative?
*All Lib Dems are wishy-washy according to my mother in law.
Brexit of some stripe is happening either way (and ignoring we know who will win Bootle regardless), even if we get a shock Labour government, so jus thick whichever is closest to your views at this moment in time.
0 -
Yeah, but that's part of their heritage, it's racist to condemn them for that.murali_s said:
People who vote Tory eat babies and the like. Nasty folk.kle4 said:I know its the usual partisan stuff, but I hate that Clive Lewis tweet outright saying, via diagram, that if you don't care about people you should vote Tory. I'd be prepared to vote Labour (though not under Corbyn), but telling people only bad people consider voting otherwise is just plain offensive, as it would be for Tories to suggest only people who care about their country vote Tory.
0 -
It depends on what sort of Brexit you are hoping for.MarkHopkins said:TheValiant said:Here we are all:
I'm a wishy-washy* Lib Dem supporter who voted for Brexit and quite like the Conservatives at the moment too.
Family are all dyed in the wool Labour supporters (albeit I hear mutterings about Corbyn).
I live in Bootle.
Who should I vote for between Lib Dem or Conservative?
*All Lib Dems are wishy-washy according to my mother in law.
Conservative. LDs do not support Brexit (trying to reverse it).0 -
Here you go. I publish political stuff, I also do fantasy/comedy too.
https://twitter.com/LeftFootFwd/status/8554180526069063690 -
Yep, it doesn't make sense for UKIP to stand against ultra-Eurosceptics like Andrew Rosindell, John Redwood, Bill Cash, etc. Last time they were making an effort to stand everywhere in England and Wales.FrancisUrquhart said:Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.AndyJS said:
How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
It wasn't a threat. It was a promise.MarkHopkins said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Icredible decision. Suspended from the party, all sorts of dodgy goings on and general car crash life, hates corbyn, why would labour reinstate him to stand?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just heard from someone I know in Rochdale CLP, they are very unhappy about Danczuk. Seems like he was pretty much imposed upon them.
Wonder how hard the local activists will be working for him...
I think he threatened to stand as an independent.0 -
As a firm member of the EICIPM crowd in 2015, I can survive most embarrassment.bobajobPB said:kle4 said:
Rule of thumb - don't worry about looking silly on the internet, ever.augustus_carp said:
Thanks for that - sorry, I have trouble keeping up with these things, I should learn to keep my mouth shut.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not the YouGov with the Tories 24% ahead. That was all post announcement.augustus_carp said:
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
Would be a world first on PB, keeping quiet, whether right or wrong. Who cares? More power to your elbow.augustus_carp said:
Thanks for that - sorry, I have trouble keeping up with these things, I should learn to keep my mouth shut.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not the YouGov with the Tories 24% ahead. That was all post announcement.augustus_carp said:
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been severald bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
0 -
It is not desperate for democracy when people make a lopsided choice. There's no rule that says it has to be close. Labour deserve what is coming to them: poetic justice would be for Ed Miliband to lose his seat.murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
It's not a one party state it's just that one party is vastly more popular. That can change very quickly the other parties just need to take a deep hard look in the mirror and ask why they aren't as popular?murali_s said:
A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.AndyJS said:
How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
Pool the EU contribution (£13bn) with overseas aid (£13bn), and then start cutting the combined total (£26bn) back to 0.7% of GDP (£13bn).Big_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
Advance a strong 'trade's better than aid' agenda.
0 -
The Tories should probably follow a 20:80 strategy.MarqueeMark said:
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.
Defend their 20 most vulnerable to the LDs and Labour, and attack the 80 most vulnerable (almost all of which will be Labour held, except a couple in Scotland)
If it looks really hot with T-2 weeks to go until polling day, you then move down the list and surge them - assuming you can square the campaign finance issue.0 -
Mr. Eagles, disappointing lack of frisky elves. 2/10.
[More frisky elves and drunkenness here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK/]
Mr. S, indeed. For democracy, the sooner Corbyn's gone, the better.0 -
Under 5% has to be a real possibility. Not standing in half the seats has a big impact on that, especially if some of them were Brexity (as opposed to simply not standing in the unpromising half).FrancisUrquhart said:
No farage, Walter Mitty in charge, brexit & too broke to stand in lots of constituencies. Doesn't look good for them.Pulpstar said:
Coral go 1-3 for UKIP under 10%. Last GE they were 12.6%, 1-3 looks big to me.FrancisUrquhart said:Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
UKiP polling numbers are tumbling too, they’ll not reach anything like 4million @GE2017FrancisUrquhart said:
No farage, Walter Mitty in charge, brexit & too broke to stand in lots of constituencies. Doesn't look good for them.Pulpstar said:
Coral go 1-3 for UKIP under 10%. Last GE they were 12.6%, 1-3 looks big to me.FrancisUrquhart said:Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
I suspect that there will be no strategy at all. It is likely to be every candidate for themselves, some running as pro Brexit and some against. I think ones running as sensible Labour at arms length to the leadership and cultivating Labour brand loyalty will do best. It may be very patchy and chaotic.BigRich said:
The Labour Targeting strategy may depend on how Left wing an MP is and how loyal they have been to Coybyn. With most of the leader visits being to seats where his friends and supporters are standing.rottenborough said:
This kind of analysis is predicated on Labour having a standard kind of seat strategy, polling and doing the basics of a campaign.DavidL said:
With hindsight one ofMarqueeMark said:
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.
I expect May and, increasingly, Corbyn to be in Tory targets 51-100. That's looking like the battlefield at the moment (with a secondary battlefront for the Tories in the SW/London against the Lib Dems).
I have seen no evidence since Jezza took over that there is anyone left who is adult enough to do this kind of stuff (or perhaps cares anymore). I suspect they have just lined up a whole string of Momentum-style rallies at various random, mainly safe seats. As long as 300 turn out with a load of placards about NHS privatisation and the whole thing is uploaded to Facebook then everyone can go home happy as the country is clearly heading Corbyn's way.
This strategy may have the opposite result to that wished for, having Corbyn visit your constituency and having photos of him and the Labour candidate standing next to each over in the local paper will IMO inches the chances that that seat terns to a Tory Gain!
Still that's probably in the long term interests of the labour party.0 -
A big majority is not, in of itself, representative of a one party state.murali_s said:
A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.AndyJS said:
How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
I don't like big majorities, nor do I like one party being in power for a very long time, I think it makes them complacent, lazy even, and reduces necessary challenge. But democracy didn't become unhealthy because Labour won a massive landslide in 1997, and it won't if the Tories win a big majority now. If we get into the mid 2020s and there's no sign of recovery against them, then things are a bit more worrisome.
Out of interest, does Japan count as a healthy democracy? ENtirely dominated by one party for 70 years.0 -
Democracy has always survived through even the heaviest of beatings for various parties 1931, 1983, 1997 etc..murali_s said:
A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.AndyJS said:
How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
I would suggest Bishop Auckland as a more likely Con gain than NW Durham. The Tory candidate in 2015 impressed (I assume he's standing again), and there has always been a Tory heartland in Teesdale. Add to that the number of nice* new houses that have been build around the area in recent years, and Helen Goodman could be in trouble.Concanvasser said:I have spent time recently in the North East, around Lanchester in County Durham. This areas is SO different to how it was in even the recent past, in terms of how it looks and feels. Virtually all visible traces of the industrial past have gone and you drive through mile upon mile of incredibly beautiful countryside and affluent little villages and towns (Wolsingham, Lanchester etc). If it were in Yorkshire or Northumberland this area would be Tory (solidly so in Yorks) yet it is currently all red. I could see NW Durham (10k majority) being a surprise Con Gain in 2017. I am not overlooking the existence of Consett but wonder if it will be out voted this time.
*My former house was nice.0 -
Nurse, nurse come quick one of them has escaped.....TheScreamingEagles said:Here you go. I publish political stuff, I also do fantasy/comedy too.
twitter.com/LeftFootFwd/status/8554180526069063690 -
Labour should stop being shit then.murali_s said:
A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.AndyJS said:
How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
Not really but were you shouting this in the blair years ? Swings and roundabouts.murali_s said:
A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.AndyJS said:
How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
I'd bet good money Labour hold Bristol West with ease.FrancisUrquhart said:The socialist republic of bristol west. All very Islington and unlike swindon a place where jezza rep is quite good.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/anything-but-the-tories-bristol-west-voters-weigh-up-their-options?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
0 -
When is that?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
0
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Ergo UKIP are (if they will forgive the Germanicism) kaput.FrancisUrquhart said:Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Could help the Lib Dems, though! "Look, voters, your Tory candidate was a UKIP sleeper all along!"0 -
Although some of the EU contribution number is going to end up being paid for membership of specific EU bodies, I would have thought. (Simply because some things are cheaper if you're only paying 10% of the cost rather than the total.) So, I would guess we'll be putting £500m/year into Gallileo because (a) we've built our military equipment around using it, and (b) it would probably be cheaper than any of the alternatives (and massively cheaper than us launching our own fleet of satellites).chestnut said:
Pool the EU contribution (£13bn) with overseas aid (£13bn), and then start cutting the combined total (£26bn) back to 0.7% of GDP (£13bn).Big_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
Advance a strong 'trade's better than aid' agenda.0 -
How vulnerable is Ed’s Doncaster North seat? – Must admit I half expected Ed to stand down.Tissue_Price said:
It is not desperate for democracy when people make a lopsided choice. There's no rule that says it has to be close. Labour deserve what is coming to them: poetic justice would be for Ed Miliband to lose his seat.murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
Only after his second stint as leader.SimonStClare said:
How vulnerable is Ed’s Doncaster North seat? – Must admit I half expected Ed to stand down.Tissue_Price said:
It is not desperate for democracy when people make a lopsided choice. There's no rule that says it has to be close. Labour deserve what is coming to them: poetic justice would be for Ed Miliband to lose his seat.murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
*cough*kle4 said:
I'd bet good money Labour hold Bristol West with ease.FrancisUrquhart said:The socialist republic of bristol west. All very Islington and unlike swindon a place where jezza rep is quite good.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/anything-but-the-tories-bristol-west-voters-weigh-up-their-options?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Tipped last night @ 2.87
Still available @ BFSB/PP.
The only reason not to take it is that the odds could lengthen before payday.0 -
Saying lily Allen is a spoof is being very generous ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:Spoof account but still.
twitter.com/TheOncoming/status/8553366013286686720 -
I would suggest Bishop Auckland as a more likely Con gain than NW Durham. The Tory candidate in 2015 impressed (I assume he's standing again), and there has always been a Tory heartland in Teesdale. Add to that the number of nice* new houses that have been build around the area in recent years, and Helen Goodman could be in trouble.
*My former house was nice.
I agree with you Sandy about Bishop Auckland being more likely. I would add Darlington too. I just think Durham NW might just go blue in addition to those two.0 -
Well, it would help if UKIP didn't stand. I'm not sure how well the "leader bonus" survives once they are an ex-Leader - you'd have to think the rest of the Progressive Alliance™ will rebound a bit.SimonStClare said:
How vulnerable is Ed’s Doncaster North seat? – Must admit I half expected Ed to stand down.Tissue_Price said:
It is not desperate for democracy when people make a lopsided choice. There's no rule that says it has to be close. Labour deserve what is coming to them: poetic justice would be for Ed Miliband to lose his seat.murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
Lab 20,708 52.4% +5.1%
UKIP 8,928 22.6% +18.3%
Con 7,235 18.3% -2.7%
LD 1,005 2.5% -12.3%
Green 757 1.9% -4.9%0 -
sorry Sandy not sure how to quote comments properly!0
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Easy shot from Cooper, says nothing about her capability to be PM. She hasn't got what it takes IMHO, The only thing she ever introduces was HIPS and that was a disaster.0
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And the quickest way to turn us back into a two party state is to administer a head shot to Corbyn asap in the hope he gets replaced by a human being. So 3 cheers for Mrs May for doing just that.murali_s said:
A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.AndyJS said:
How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
He did enough damage the first time, they’ll not want him back for good. #takethatkle4 said:
Only after his second stint as leader.SimonStClare said:
How vulnerable is Ed’s Doncaster North seat? – Must admit I half expected Ed to stand down.Tissue_Price said:
It is not desperate for democracy when people make a lopsided choice. There's no rule that says it has to be close. Labour deserve what is coming to them: poetic justice would be for Ed Miliband to lose his seat.murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
0 -
Kenton and Harrow in general are not like other BME seats, Indian voters tend to be AB and our voting profile is closer to White English AB voters than it is to BME voters. Among Indians that I know the leave/remain vote was split down the middle while the BME vote was 65/35 remain.AndyJS said:Tories did well in Kenton East despite it being just 14% white British at the last census. Maybe the Tories won't do as badly in London relative to the rest of the country as expected.
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=13688801&c=kenton+east&d=14&e=61&g=6327864&i=1001x1003x1032x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1492781572118&enc=1&dsFamilyId=25750 -
Unite has lost the plot.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
5pm today according to Dan Hodges.TheWhiteRabbit said:
When is that?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Unite split.ToryJim said:
Unite has lost the plot.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
On a serious note, government and courts need to take very tough action on these kind of attacks.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-396687350 -
SHould have said I 'have' bet good money they will hold itPong said:
*cough*kle4 said:
I'd bet good money Labour hold Bristol West with ease.FrancisUrquhart said:The socialist republic of bristol west. All very Islington and unlike swindon a place where jezza rep is quite good.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/anything-but-the-tories-bristol-west-voters-weigh-up-their-options?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Tipped last night @ 2.87
Still available @ BFSB/PP.
The only reason not to take it is that the odds could lengthen before payday. 0 -
The 'benefit' of being in Bootle is I can vote for whomever I like with the knowledge it doesn't matter. I don't need to consider tactical voting or 'trying to stop X'. Labour could lose 20,000* votes and still win with a massive majority (well, they couldn't lose 20,000 switchers, but 20,000 to DNV).
As to Brexit - I probably want EFTA Swiss model - not sure about EEA, think it's too close to EU lite.
Got a lot of thinking to do these next six weeks.
* Goodness, they could lose 28,000 and still win!0 -
I've been looking at the Tyneside seats for where Labour might be vulnerable.
Newcastle upon Tyne North is probably the most vulnerable Newcastle seat but I can't see that going anywhere, despite a very sizeable UKIP vote.
Tynemouth could switch. The Conservatives are (only) 5,000 thousand votes behind and has been Tory in the past with 6,000 UKIP votes to pillage. I can't see the more deprived parts of North Shields voting for Corbyn. They will probably stay at home.
That's it! How depressing.0 -
The chancellor has given a major hint that he is no fan of the 2015 Tory manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-396711630 -
Untie frayed knot (5)MTimT said:
Unite split.ToryJim said:
Unite has lost the plot.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I agree with you Sandy about Bishop Auckland being more likely. I would add Darlington too. I just think Durham NW might just go blue in addition to those two.Concanvasser said:
I would suggest Bishop Auckland as a more likely Con gain than NW Durham. The Tory candidate in 2015 impressed (I assume he's standing again), and there has always been a Tory heartland in Teesdale. Add to that the number of nice* new houses that have been build around the area in recent years, and Helen Goodman could be in trouble.
*My former house was nice.
I hadn't even considered NW Durham but if the Tories do poll at the very top end of expectations, a 10,000 majority in Leave voting area is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Agreed re BA and Darlington. The latter in particular looks as good as gone.0 -
Depressed Labour turnout = - 2000. Rebound of LD/Green vote = -700. Con gain if UKIP don't stand and Con surge = +9000. Result Lab 18,000, Con 16,200 LAB HOLD.Tissue_Price said:
Well, it would help if UKIP didn't stand. I'm not sure how well the "leader bonus" survives once they are an ex-Leader - you'd have to think the rest of the Progressive Alliance™ will rebound a bit.SimonStClare said:
How vulnerable is Ed’s Doncaster North seat? – Must admit I half expected Ed to stand down.Tissue_Price said:
It is not desperate for democracy when people make a lopsided choice. There's no rule that says it has to be close. Labour deserve what is coming to them: poetic justice would be for Ed Miliband to lose his seat.murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
Lab 20,708 52.4% +5.1%
UKIP 8,928 22.6% +18.3%
Con 7,235 18.3% -2.7%
LD 1,005 2.5% -12.3%
Green 757 1.9% -4.9%0 -
Mr. Urquhart, it's stupid to increase the personal allowance continually if you're then going to increase income tax, I think.
Is it NI that pensions don't pay?
Mr. Urquhart, agree entirely. There seem to have been a shitload of acid attacks in London. It's barbaric.0 -
If anyone wants to think about Labour's firewall, here are their seats ranked by increasing percentage of majority:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view0 -
0
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I remember Greville Janner holding Tynemouth (just) in 1992. I spoke with him shortly after and he claimed he mobilised the local Rotary club very effectively.Gallowgate said:I've been looking at the Tyneside seats for where Labour might be vulnerable.
Newcastle upon Tyne North is probably the most vulnerable Newcastle seat but I can't see that going anywhere, despite a very sizeable UKIP vote.
Tynemouth could switch. The Conservatives are (only) 5,000 thousand votes behind and has been Tory in the past with 6,000 UKIP votes to pillage. I can't see the more deprived parts of North Shields voting for Corbyn. They will probably stay at home.
That's it! How depressing.0 -
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Tissue_Price said:
Untie frayed knot (5)MTimT said:
Unite split.ToryJim said:
Unite has lost the plot.TheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
You forgot the 1,000 Lab --> Con switchersMTimT said:
Depressed Labour turnout = - 2000. Rebound of LD/Green vote = -700. Con gain if UKIP don't stand and Con surge = +9000. Result Lab 18,000, Con 16,200 LAB HOLD.Tissue_Price said:
Well, it would help if UKIP didn't stand. I'm not sure how well the "leader bonus" survives once they are an ex-Leader - you'd have to think the rest of the Progressive Alliance™ will rebound a bit.SimonStClare said:
How vulnerable is Ed’s Doncaster North seat? – Must admit I half expected Ed to stand down.Tissue_Price said:
It is not desperate for democracy when people make a lopsided choice. There's no rule that says it has to be close. Labour deserve what is coming to them: poetic justice would be for Ed Miliband to lose his seat.murali_s said:The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).
Lab 20,708 52.4% +5.1%
UKIP 8,928 22.6% +18.3%
Con 7,235 18.3% -2.7%
LD 1,005 2.5% -12.3%
Green 757 1.9% -4.9%
Result: Con 17,200 Lab 17,000 CON GAIN from LAB0 -
Of course they will push it. Anything to further their cause. But since they (unfortunately) have little or no say in the matter that really doesn't effect things.williamglenn said:
What I suggested is being pushed by the Scottish government, which last time I checked was part of the UK.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think you are missing the whole point of the word 'negotiation'. It doesn't matter what the EU guidelines say. They apply to the conduct of the EU side not the UK side. If we decide we do not agree with those guidelines then they cannot be imposed. A workaround will have to be reached which is satisfactory to both sides.williamglenn said:From the EU guidelines posted by FF43 earlier:
Full account should be taken of the fact that Irish citizens residing in Northern Ireland will continue to enjoy rights as EU citizens; and existing bilateral agreements and arrangements between Ireland and the United Kingdom, such as the Common Travel Area, which are in conformity with EU law, will be recognised.
I think the end game of the demands for EU law to apply will be a differentiated approach to the territory of the UK, which will open the door to Scotland being able to detach itself.
I know you believe that the UK should just do everything the EU says but this is the real world where negotiations and compromises go two ways.0
