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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yvette Cooper moves into favourite slot as Corbyn’s successor

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    new thread
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045

    murali_s said:

    AndyJS said:

    murali_s said:

    The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).

    How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?
    A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.
    Not really but were you shouting this in the blair years ? Swings and roundabouts.
    Blair's majority was also detrimental. At the time I wanted a much smaller majority. He got a huge majority and did what he wanted.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I've been looking at the Tyneside seats for where Labour might be vulnerable.

    Newcastle upon Tyne North is probably the most vulnerable Newcastle seat but I can't see that going anywhere, despite a very sizeable UKIP vote.

    Tynemouth could switch. The Conservatives are (only) 5,000 thousand votes behind and has been Tory in the past with 6,000 UKIP votes to pillage. I can't see the more deprived parts of North Shields voting for Corbyn. They will probably stay at home.

    That's it! How depressing.

    I remember Greville Janner holding Tynemouth (just) in 1992. I spoke with him shortly after and he claimed he mobilised the local Rotary club very effectively.
    Don't you mean Neville Trotter?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895

    If anyone wants to think about Labour's firewall, here are their seats ranked by increasing percentage of majority:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view

    That makes East Ham the safest Labour seat in London and the fourth safest in the country.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    5/1 for Con in Ynys Mon looks interesting. Less than 10% behind the winner in 2015.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    murali_s said:

    A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.

    The electorate overwhelmingly rejecting a divided and demoralised party with an abysmal leader, no economic credibility, loony policies, and a disturbing tendency to sympathise with some extremely dodgy causes is not a failure of democracy, it's exactly how democracy is supposed to work.
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    NEW THREAD

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    isamisam Posts: 41,005

    Ukip may not contest seats held by pro-Brexit Tories
    Cash-strapped party could stand aside in seats held by Conservatives who campaigned strongly to leave EU

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/ukip-may-not-contest-seats-held-by-pro-brexit-tories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Wise move
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm in a key marginal this time round :)

    Nobody is in a "key" marginal surely. The tories look to be heading for such a big majority that when the results come in we can look at the 10 most marginal seats held by both Lab and Con and say with some confidence that it would have made no material difference if they had all been held by one or the other

    I.e. maj 80 vs maj 120 who cares
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    AndyJS said:

    murali_s said:

    The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).

    How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?
    A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.
    Not really but were you shouting this in the blair years ? Swings and roundabouts.
    Blair's majority was also detrimental. At the time I wanted a much smaller majority. He got a huge majority and did what he wanted.
    Yep I agree.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    AndyJS said:

    murali_s said:

    The Kenton local by-election tells me that even the London firewall will be under severe pressure. Desperate times for Labour (and democracy in this country).

    How can it be desperate for democracy when it's democracy in action?
    A one-party state is not representative of a healthy democracy.
    Not really but were you shouting this in the blair years ? Swings and roundabouts.
    Blair's majority was also detrimental. At the time I wanted a much smaller majority. He got a huge majority and did what he wanted.
    He did what Brown let him.

    But yes, the opposition was on his own side, not the other.
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    Andy JS
    AndyJS said:

    5/1 for Con in Ynys Mon looks interesting. Less than 10% behind the winner in 2015.

    Oh goodness what a mistake to make. Greville/Neville but in the circumstances most unfortunate....Sorry.
This discussion has been closed.