politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yvette Cooper moves into favourite slot as Corbyn’s successor
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Both of those are true (if deserved). Only the word "just" raises an eyebrow.stjohn said:
I think Jeremy is much misunderstood and has just had a bad press.DavidL said:
Your impartiality does you proud. What is in the national interest? What is in the party's interest? Who gives a...stjohn said:I've just remembered I have bets on Corbyn's exit year. 8/1 2018 and 12/1 2019.
I've had a Damascene conversion. All of a sudden I'm not implacably opposed to Corbyn hanging on as leader for a year or two after the General Election.
In fact, after mature reflection, I think it would be a rather good idea if the Labour Party just paused for a while after their anticipated General Election defeat and not hastily replace a decent man, who has after all been doing a great job under difficult circumstances!
:-)0 -
They're not disenfranchised. No-one has the right to vote for a winner.rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.OldKingCole said:
Friends of ours are VERY politicall;y aware, but resident in the Bucks consituency. They are quite savage about being, effectively, disenfranchied.tpfkar said:
Interestingly I heard a whisper last night of a Lib Dem candidature in Buckingham. No idea if it's based in fact.Slackbladder said:
Having said that I've never understood why the convention is in place, it disenfranchises an entire constituency - why don't the voters matter there or deserve a say? The Buckingham friends I was with last night were pretty peed off about it. Either the speaker should stand on their previous party's manifesto, or there should be an additional political MP for the speaker's constituency
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
Every party starts on zero. If one party wins time and time again, it's because that's what the voters there want - but there's no guarantee that it'll stay that way. There are plenty of examples of once-safe seats that have later changed hands. I expect that this election will give us more such examples.0 -
Or it makes her look like a burglar.Cyan said:
Le Pen dangled a key to emphasise her promise to "give French people back the keys to their house". Smart girl.
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I agree with your daughter. Theresa May has become a lot more interesting in the last week. I also think she is doing a better job on Brexit than she did at the beginning, where she caused a lot of damage.DavidL said:Interesting lunch with my daughter. She is thrilled by the election (possibly the first person I have found like that). She is also impressed, now, with Mrs May. Her comment: "It's so Frank Underwood, tripping up and crushing your opponents like that." She thinks she underestimated her.
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ToryJim said:
This isn't good for Labour
twitter.com/robmurphyitv/status/855394671320866817
Just check the reaction of a #Swindon shopper. I only asked if she'd vote for @jeremycorbyn @itvwestcountry @Conservatives @labourpress
Cannot play Twitter vids. What happens?
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Will you vote for JC?MarkHopkins said:ToryJim said:This isn't good for Labour
twitter.com/robmurphyitv/status/855394671320866817
Just check the reaction of a #Swindon shopper. I only asked if she'd vote for @jeremycorbyn @itvwestcountry @Conservatives @labourpress
Cannot play Twitter vids. What happens?
[laughs]
Why the laugh?
Cos he is a laugh.0 -
SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Or it makes her look like a burglar.Cyan said:
Le Pen dangled a key to emphasise her promise to "give French people back the keys to their house". Smart girl.
Burglars use keys?
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agree with all of that. I doubt, however, that UK polls are any more unreliable than US one, but pollsters probably apply more corrections based on experience rather than the standard US all voters/registered voters/likely voters (the last being the only house subjective filter applied). Thus US poll reporting style more readily facilitates Nate's processes. I don't think that necessarily makes it more reliable as a whole, but it perhaps makes the headline number more transparent.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
His trouble when he then comes to the UK is he doesn't have a great feel for the intangibles.MTimT said:
Precisely my point. Nate, until 2016, was a polls only guy, no correction for non-polls knowledge. So a case of garbage in, garbage out when the polls are off, or when it is too tight to call, or when politics are in flux.Pulpstar said:
I don't think Trump should have ever particularly been odds on though ?MTimT said:
Nate is sometimes good at US elections. He got 2008 spot on, he was closer than the pack (but did not predict a Trump win) in 2016, and was awful in 2010 and 2014.Pulpstar said:
Nate is very good at US elections (He got the last one spot on), but his UK record is not so great.rottenborough said:Maybe we are all wrong:
Nate Silver: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-u-k-snap-election-is-riskier-than-it-seems/
There was no way you could have divined that from the polls.
By 2016, Nate had understood the last point, and it was his non-polls knowledge that led him to caution against what his models (and those of others) were predicting (an easy Hillary win). He was brave enough to sound a note of caution against the predictions, despite the belittling critics, and for that he deserves considerable credit, particularly as to rely on intangibles is so against his character and previous MO.
So he is basically saying, "UK polls are relatively unreliable, so could be well out again, and we need to think about a large 'real' margin of error, not just a statistical one in the UK".
That's true to a degree, but ignores the fact that most things back up a very large and robust Tory lead even if the methodology of polls is off. Copeland, local elections, deep divisions in Labour which simply can't be ignored over the campaign, Labour MPs jumping before the electorate push them, etc, are all important intangibles pointing to a ceiling on Labour support and floor on Tory support. So even if the poll methodologies are quite badly wrong, it doesn't make the race wide open, or even ajar.0 -
A smart burglar will pinch a key and come back when you've claimed on insurance in case you make the mistake of not changing the locks.MarkHopkins said:SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Or it makes her look like a burglar.Cyan said:
Le Pen dangled a key to emphasise her promise to "give French people back the keys to their house". Smart girl.
Burglars use keys?
Trick of the trade for you there.0 -
Ishmael_Z said:
Will you vote for JC?MarkHopkins said:ToryJim said:This isn't good for Labour
twitter.com/robmurphyitv/status/855394671320866817
Just check the reaction of a #Swindon shopper. I only asked if she'd vote for @jeremycorbyn @itvwestcountry @Conservatives @labourpress
Cannot play Twitter vids. What happens?
[laughs]
Why the laugh?
Cos he is a laugh.
Thanks. Terrible for Labour.
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You have a very hard time with your insurer if they do....MarkHopkins said:SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Or it makes her look like a burglar.Cyan said:
Le Pen dangled a key to emphasise her promise to "give French people back the keys to their house". Smart girl.
Burglars use keys?0 -
Several reasons but mainly that he's clearly not up to the job.Charles said:Why is Corbyn quitting "the decent thing"?
Heath was defeated in '66 and held on. Wilson was beaten in 1970 and held on. Heath expected to remain in office after October '74
It's only a recent innovation that defeat means termination. In the 1970s, when Corbyn's viewed were formed, hanging on was standard practice.0 -
An optimist would say that it has taken her a bit of time to step up from a job where the main responsibility was, err, avoiding responsibility. Her treatment of her Chancellor over NI suggested she is not quite there yet but she does now give the strong impression of someone who thinks things through and has a plan. It's almost unnerving. Most of our politicians are rather more spontaneous.FF43 said:
I agree with your daughter. Theresa May has become a lot more interesting in the last week. I also think she is doing a better job on Brexit than she did at the beginning, where she caused a lot of damage.DavidL said:Interesting lunch with my daughter. She is thrilled by the election (possibly the first person I have found like that). She is also impressed, now, with Mrs May. Her comment: "It's so Frank Underwood, tripping up and crushing your opponents like that." She thinks she underestimated her.
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Macron (clueless sod!) didn't bring an object at all, but spoke about how his object was a "grammar book", which he'd left behind. Was it a mistake? "No, I didn't forget it".
No, that's right, mate, never mind about playing the game - you tell us all about your "logic". Everyone is so interested. Conclusion: this guy could be out of the race soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWjSVue-kI8
Fillon didn't bring an object either. "I haven't brought an object, because I'm not a fetishist". He then expressed his solidarity with the victims of the Champs Elysées attack:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1twefxuE84
I think he may have overdone it, but at least his act stuck together: he is playing the "look as though he's already the president" card.
Looks like R2 will be Le Pen versus Fillon.0 -
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Is there some other reason* for May's staffers quitting, or is it just - as I suspect - that Fiona Hill pisses a lot of people off?
(*like they weren't in on the loop on the early GE, and clearly now know how little they matter to May and her inner circle)0 -
All Zionist supporting Tory plants...ToryJim said:This isn't good for Labour
twitter.com/robmurphyitv/status/8553946713208668170 -
I have no idea whether he'll go or not. Personally, I think he won't and he'll need to be voted out by the membership.david_herdson said:
Several reasons but mainly that he's clearly not up to the job.Charles said:Why is Corbyn quitting "the decent thing"?
Heath was defeated in '66 and held on. Wilson was beaten in 1970 and held on. Heath expected to remain in office after October '74
It's only a recent innovation that defeat means termination. In the 1970s, when Corbyn's viewed were formed, hanging on was standard practice.
If I were a Labour moderate, I'd focus on building up hundreds of thousands of names nationwide to out momentum Momentum after the election.0 -
Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'0
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And Dupont-Aignan brought a sculpture made by a disabled person, which I have heard about before and which he keeps in his office and I think is genuinely important to him. Stupid choice, though. Someone should have told him that everything should help convey the message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJnWNX9G7U80 -
Kim Yong may wants to be careful with this super safety first strategy. Optics are bad. Also I know they went more cautious with Cameron but actually he got a lot of credit for doing those Cameron directs and when the lib dem supporter with the disabled kid ambushed him.0
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The discussion about nate silver (below) reminded me of the massive polling miss in michigan.
I'm not saying this is going to happen, only that it's worth considering - briefly - how Corbyn might pull off a shock victory, despite the polls...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/0 -
I still have in mind Swindon North from 2010 as a marginal. But 2015, wow. Not going to go Labour for a generation.SeanT said:BTL on that Twitter vid, a conversation:
Replying to @RobMurphyitv @jeremycorbyn and 3 others
Mr Corbyn was in #Swindon talking about minimum wage & zero hours contracts. But 5/5 vox pops I filmed after said they wouldn't vote Labour
Justin Tomlinson MPVerified account @JTomlinsonMP 29m29
Same on the doors, Labour supporter after Labour supporter - never seen anything like it in 20 years of canvassing
[NB the MP is a Tory, but still]0 -
She just did a live question session with journalists.FrancisUrquhart said:Kim Yong may wants to be careful with this super safety first strategy. Optics are bad. Also I know they went more cautious with Cameron but actually he got a lot of credit for doing those Cameron directs and when the lib dem supporter with the disabled kid ambushed him.
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You are done for if people think you are a total joke candidate.SeanT said:
It's brilliant. She just breaks down into tears of laughter at the simple *idea* of voting for JeremyMarkHopkins said:ToryJim said:This isn't good for Labour
twitter.com/robmurphyitv/status/855394671320866817
Just check the reaction of a #Swindon shopper. I only asked if she'd vote for @jeremycorbyn @itvwestcountry @Conservatives @labourpress
Cannot play Twitter vids. What happens?
And this is Swindon woman. Classic middle Britain. He's beyond fecked.0 -
IndeedPong said:
lolCyan said:
Every candidate had to bring an object.
And which one brought by one of the top six candidates are people most likely to remember?
Le Pen's key?
Macron's grammar book he left at home?
Mélenchon's clock?
Dupont-Aignan's sculpture?
Fillon not bringing anything, because he says he's not a fetishist?
Or Hamon's medical card?
Le Pen is outplaying the crap out of the other candidates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_uwdO4INn8
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I think doing some Cameron direct style events would be a wise move against the claim of not wanting to debate. She isn't very dynamic but isn't going to have a jezza style breakdown.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She just did a live question session with journalists.FrancisUrquhart said:Kim Yong may wants to be careful with this super safety first strategy. Optics are bad. Also I know they went more cautious with Cameron but actually he got a lot of credit for doing those Cameron directs and when the lib dem supporter with the disabled kid ambushed him.
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To be fair, the LDs did win Ludlow in 2001 (I think) and lost it in 2005 while Monmouth has also gone Labour in the past (1997).rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
Indeed, my constituency, East Ham, would be so far down the Conservative target list as to be subterranean but in their current cocky triumphalist mood, perhaps the Conservatives think they can unseat Mr Timms as well.
Even with a similar 10% swing to the one recorded in Kenton yesterday, Timms would still be around 20,000 ahead.
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I'm off to the poor house if he does.Pong said:The discussion about nate silver (below) reminded me of the massive polling miss in michigan.
I'm not saying this is going to happen, only that it's worth considering - briefly - how Corbyn might pull off a shock victory, despite the polls...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/0 -
Yes, I still find it difficult not to think of seats like Kingswood or Battersea as marginals.TheWhiteRabbit said:I still have in mind Swindon North from 2010 as a marginal. But 2015, wow. Not going to go Labour for a generation.
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Pulpstar said:
I'm off to the poor house if he does.Pong said:The discussion about nate silver (below) reminded me of the massive polling miss in michigan.
I'm not saying this is going to happen, only that it's worth considering - briefly - how Corbyn might pull off a shock victory, despite the polls...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/
Everyone is.
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Defense? La Defense? Not sure they need the money ...SeanT said:
There's enough wiggle room there to shift some of it to DefenseBig_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
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On topic, Yvette won't be the answer later this year just the same as Andy Burnham wasn't the answer two years ago when he lost to Corbyn, after having tried and failed in 2010.
Labour need to be ready to compromise with both the electorate and reality before they will regain power.
Three tests to apply in judging that:
(1) are they still talking much more about spending more money, and far less about how they intend to strengthen and grow the economy?
(2) are they getting far more passionate and exorcised about the plight of refugees, without sounding sincere about immigration control and the concerns of C2DEs in England/Wales?
(3) are they either dismissive, sneery, or just silent, about England and Englishness, but still glowing effusively about the European Union?
Yes, the next leader has to win the internal battle first - and that is an awful message to take to the (current) Labour selectorate - but they need to start a conversation about how Labour can stay relevant in the post-Brexit world, and make their values chime again.
The Tories did at least try a little bit to do this in 2002, with May infamous speech and IDS's move on social justice, and Cameron much more successfully in 2005.
Where are the Labour equivalents?0 -
Yes, look at all those historically super-safe Labour seats in Scotland.rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.OldKingCole said:
Friends of ours are VERY politicall;y aware, but resident in the Bucks consituency. They are quite savage about being, effectively, disenfranchied.tpfkar said:
Interestingly I heard a whisper last night of a Lib Dem candidature in Buckingham. No idea if it's based in fact.Slackbladder said:
Having said that I've never understood why the convention is in place, it disenfranchises an entire constituency - why don't the voters matter there or deserve a say? The Buckingham friends I was with last night were pretty peed off about it. Either the speaker should stand on their previous party's manifesto, or there should be an additional political MP for the speaker's constituency
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
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What's staggering about those French debate clips is that - nearly 24 hours later - virtually no one has watched them (and those are the official links).
Around 14,000 people started watching the Le Pen video. Less than 800 made it to the 10 minute mark.
The numbers are even worse for Macron. He only got 4,000 people starting to watch. Of which barely more than 500 made it to 10 mintues!0 -
So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.0 -
Also, it goes a long way towards keeping the average, reasonable Church-goer on-side. For many, foreign aid is all part of "helping the poor". It's seen as a "good thing to do", but if it is going to be tightened up/made more efficient/ better directed, then so be it. Just don't say it's going to be "cut" or "abolished".SeanT said:
There's enough wiggle room there to shift some of it to DefenseBig_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
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That would be Ms Cooper to you – no reason to double-barrel her name as she uses her maiden name solely – we have been plenty of times before on PB ;-)GIN1138 said:Afternoon saboteurs and patriots.
Given the electorate in any future Labour contest I'd have thought Diane Abbott would be a more likely to become the next Lab leader than Mrs Cooper-Balls?0 -
In North Herefordshire, you'd have to be aged over 107 to remember it being Liberal. North Shropshire hasn't changed hands since 1835. I know the first three seats I listed so well that I'd happily bet you at reasonable oddsdavid_herdson said:
They're not disenfranchised. No-one has the right to vote for a winner.rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.OldKingCole said:
Friends of ours are VERY politicall;y aware, but resident in the Bucks consituency. They are quite savage about being, effectively, disenfranchied.tpfkar said:
Interestingly I heard a whisper last night of a Lib Dem candidature in Buckingham. No idea if it's based in fact.Slackbladder said:
Having said that I've never understood why the convention is in place, it disenfranchises an entire constituency - why don't the voters matter there or deserve a say? The Buckingham friends I was with last night were pretty peed off about it. Either the speaker should stand on their previous party's manifesto, or there should be an additional political MP for the speaker's constituency
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
Every party starts on zero. If one party wins time and time again, it's because that's what the voters there want - but there's no guarantee that it'll stay that way. There are plenty of examples of once-safe seats that have later changed hands. I expect that this election will give us more such examples.
that they all stay Blue in 2017
that they all stay Blue in 2017 and in 2022 (or whenever the next GE is).
Suggest calculating the odds based on the individual constituency odds this time.0 -
SeanT said:
There's enough wiggle room there to shift some of it to DefenseBig_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
Sean, did you get my restaurant recommendation for when you're next in NYC. Contra:
http://contranyc.com
Extraordinary combinations of tastes and textures which are not only totally novel and beautifully presented, but actually are delicious. And effective, informal service. 7 courses for $74, and you exit sated but not overfull (certainly not hungry). And, killer, good bread (are hard thing to find, still, in the US)0 -
But it can come as no surprise. Even within the Labour Party, Corbyn and his ilk were regarded with the patronising tone that they were an embarrassing wing of the party - and that condescension extended to giving them a leg upjust to get on the ballot paper - aw, bless, as Ma Beckett must have been thinking.SeanT said:
It's brilliant. She just breaks down into tears of laughter at the simple *idea* of voting for JeremyMarkHopkins said:ToryJim said:This isn't good for Labour
twitter.com/robmurphyitv/status/855394671320866817
Just check the reaction of a #Swindon shopper. I only asked if she'd vote for @jeremycorbyn @itvwestcountry @Conservatives @labourpress
Cannot play Twitter vids. What happens?
And this is Swindon woman. Classic middle Britain. He's beyond fecked.
The voters don't do "aw, bless...." They aim between the legs, and kick.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.0
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We need to shift a lot of it to Defence.SeanT said:
There's enough wiggle room there to shift some of it to DefenseBig_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
We can't be an independent global power with an independent global foreign policy with our current budget.0 -
Willie Rennie having more trouble with animals.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/855403466897989633
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Important to make this distinction - I'm in a safe seat, but I'm not disenfranchised. It's possible for them to change, it just takes a lot, and I can choose who I like.david_herdson said:
They're not disenfranchised. No-one has the right to vote for a winner.rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.OldKingCole said:
Friends of ours are VERY politicall;y aware, but resident in the Bucks consituency. They are quite savage about being, effectively, disenfranchied.tpfkar said:
Interestingly I heard a whisper last night of a Lib Dem candidature in Buckingham. No idea if it's based in fact.Slackbladder said:
Having said that I've never understood why the convention is in place, it disenfranchises an entire constituency - why don't the voters matter there or deserve a say? The Buckingham friends I was with last night were pretty peed off about it. Either the speaker should stand on their previous party's manifesto, or there should be an additional political MP for the speaker's constituency
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
Every party starts on zero. If one party wins time and time again, it's because that's what the voters there want - but there's no guarantee that it'll stay that way. There are plenty of examples of once-safe seats that have later changed hands. I expect that this election will give us more such examples.0 -
Labour are going to try (in their own, spectacularly incompetent way) to get people to take a fresh look at Corbyn, but the experience of Ed Miliband suggests that the bulk of voters make their minds up quickly about a new leader, and don't change them.FrancisUrquhart said:
You are done for if people think you are a total joke candidate.SeanT said:
It's brilliant. She just breaks down into tears of laughter at the simple *idea* of voting for JeremyMarkHopkins said:ToryJim said:This isn't good for Labour
twitter.com/robmurphyitv/status/855394671320866817
Just check the reaction of a #Swindon shopper. I only asked if she'd vote for @jeremycorbyn @itvwestcountry @Conservatives @labourpress
Cannot play Twitter vids. What happens?
And this is Swindon woman. Classic middle Britain. He's beyond fecked.
Corbyn appeals really only to the 10-15% of people who truly believe in, or are at least willing to seriously contemplate, the possibility of a Far Left Government. Nearly all the remainder of the electorate (save for those who pay absolutely no attention to the news at all, and they're probably committed non-voters anyway) has written him off.
Leadership and economic competence figures were better indicators than the headline polling averages of the outcome of the last General Election. One point in favour of the contention that Labour's position may be worse than the 24-25% currently suggested by the polls.0 -
One thing I think is important to May, in her understated way, is her faith.FF43 said:
I agree with your daughter. Theresa May has become a lot more interesting in the last week. I also think she is doing a better job on Brexit than she did at the beginning, where she caused a lot of damage.DavidL said:Interesting lunch with my daughter. She is thrilled by the election (possibly the first person I have found like that). She is also impressed, now, with Mrs May. Her comment: "It's so Frank Underwood, tripping up and crushing your opponents like that." She thinks she underestimated her.
She made this electoral decision on a walking holiday in Snowdonia,
On Sunday 9th, I came out of my house in N. Wales to go on a long walk in the sunshine . The house is opposite an small Anglican church. Leaving the service on what was Palm Sunday in this rather undistinguished church with its small congregation were .... Theresa and Philip.
(I have seen them before in the town, while she was Home Secretary, so I wasn't entirely surprised).0 -
Well, as someone who came from nowhere (in terms of old party backing) and so I presume relying at least in part on superficial appeal, that may not hurt him - he needs people to like him at a glance, not after an indepth look.rcs1000 said:What's staggering about those French debate clips is that - nearly 24 hours later - virtually no one has watched them (and those are the official links).
Around 14,000 people started watching the Le Pen video. Less than 800 made it to the 10 minute mark.
The numbers are even worse for Macron. He only got 4,000 people starting to watch. Of which barely more than 500 made it to 10 mintues!0 -
SeanT said:
It's Friday.MTimT said:
Defense? La Defense? Not sure they need the money ...SeanT said:
There's enough wiggle room there to shift some of it to DefenseBig_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
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Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
I agree with Richard T yesterday - I think he need to have a big look at how, instead of how much.0 -
Swindon will be interesting to watch - both have been Labour but one now looks very safe Tory and the other now has a decent majority - it will be fun to see if they remain pretty static or go against the trend.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.0 -
We all are, whether we've bet on the election or not.Pulpstar said:
I'm off to the poor house if he does.Pong said:The discussion about nate silver (below) reminded me of the massive polling miss in michigan.
I'm not saying this is going to happen, only that it's worth considering - briefly - how Corbyn might pull off a shock victory, despite the polls...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/0 -
People thought Ed Miliband was a bit of wally, but they certainly didn't think that him being PM was implausible, they do with Corbyn. And that's before you get on to the stuff that makes Corbyn PM not just implausible but something to be actively avoided.SeanT said:Yes, he's far far beyond Ed Miliband, deep into Unelectable Clown Country. And the Tories haven't even started on the attack ads.
I genuinely can't see how a campaign where Corbyn's views and history are publicised is meant to lead to an increase in support. It seems more likely to me that things will get worse.0 -
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@DPJHodges: OK, let's lower the bar for Jeremy Corbyn. Could he at least get through an interview without looking like his head is about to fall off.0
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Yes indeed. My natural instinct is to assume Labour cannot do as poorly as polls and my own opinion of Corbyn indicates, I'm on th look out for them doing ok, or surprising us all, but fact is for a lot of people Corbyn's image is set and it is not as a serious candidate for PM, he has to work damn hard, be lucky in his opponents, in order to even have his good ideas heard by many, or for people to think other than 'that sounds nice, but I cannot vote for you mate'.FrancisUrquhart said:
You are done for if people think you are a total joke candidate.SeanT said:
It's brilliant. She just breaks down into tears of laughter at the simple *idea* of voting for JeremyMarkHopkins said:ToryJim said:This isn't good for Labour
twitter.com/robmurphyitv/status/855394671320866817
Just check the reaction of a #Swindon shopper. I only asked if she'd vote for @jeremycorbyn @itvwestcountry @Conservatives @labourpress
Cannot play Twitter vids. What happens?
And this is Swindon woman. Classic middle Britain. He's beyond fecked.0 -
But they are already incredibly bad for Labour. Worse than this and you are looking at a SLAB 2015 scenario. And I still can't quite believe that.glw said:
People thought Ed Miliband was a bit of wally, but they certainly didn't think that him being PM was implausible, they do with Corbyn. And that's before you get on to the stuff that makes Corbyn PM not just implausible but something to be actively avoided.SeanT said:Yes, he's far far beyond Ed Miliband, deep into Unelectable Clown Country. And the Tories haven't even started on the attack ads.
I genuinely can't see how a campaign where Corbyn's views and history are publicised is meant to lead to an increase in support. It seems more likely to me that things will get worse.0 -
I'm in a key marginal this time round 0
-
No, that's an old file photo of Dennis Healey and Geoffrey Howe.dr_spyn said:Willie Rennie having more trouble with animals.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/8554034668979896330 -
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.0 -
Afternoon all
I was musing on the composition of the post-election Cabinet and I thought obviously:
Prime Minister: Tim Farron
Chancellor: Vince Cable
Home Secretary: Norman Lamb
Foreign Secretary: Tom Brake
No ?
Ok, seriously...
What are we looking at post-8/6 for the shape of the new Cabinet ? Assuming May gets her landslide (majority 100-150 which is where I'm thinking at present), will she go for a radical re-shuffle or will it be very much as you were ?
I could imagine Hammond, Rudd and Johnson all being under threat - the Cameron faction would be in eclipse but the truth is many of the Conservative Parliamentary Party elected in 2010, 2015 and 2017 would have been from the Cameron era. Doubtless they will profess their undying loyalty to the new regime but the era of "liberal conservatism" won't have been completely eradicated as May has not had the time to fully reshape the Party in her image.
Could Michael Fallon move to FS - could Greg Clark be the new Home Secretary and as a wildcard Jane Ellison as Chancellor ?
Big majorities cause problems too especially with backbench MPs seeing no prospect of advancement into Government and the non payroll group of MPs larger than the real Opposition parties. Let's not forget Thatcher won two landslides but was thrown out by her own MPs so assuming May will coast along ad infinitum seems foolish. In any case, by 2022 she will be 65 - will she seek to serve a full second term or will the potential younger successors be jostling for position ?
Men like Johnson and Javid and women such as Ellison and Greening could all be key players.0 -
Even the triumphal Tories expecting (rather than hoping) for a 200 seat majority would surely think East Ham beyond them. A candidate for being the last labour seat in the country if it came down to that point.stodge said:
To be fair, the LDs did win Ludlow in 2001 (I think) and lost it in 2005 while Monmouth has also gone Labour in the past (1997).rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
Indeed, my constituency, East Ham, would be so far down the Conservative target list as to be subterranean but in their current cocky triumphalist mood, perhaps the Conservatives think they can unseat Mr Timms as well.
Even with a similar 10% swing to the one recorded in Kenton yesterday, Timms would still be around 20,000 ahead.0 -
Labour seat with a majority of 10,000+ then?Pulpstar said:I'm in a key marginal this time round
0 -
david_herdson said:
For what activity?TheScreamingEagles said:I still wouldn't rule out Diane Abbott.
She won't get to be leader because she won't be nominated. Even the left of the PLP couldn't put her forward.
Quite right. The only chance of that happening is *if* Corbyn somehow clings on all summer *and* Conference changes the rules – *then* the remaining PLP nominates her on 5% rules (McD amendment) – *and then* the membership elects her. Highly unlikely but as this is the Labour Party perhaps I'd take the bet on longish odds!!!0 -
US primaries just aren't sensibly comparable to a UK General Election.Pong said:The discussion about nate silver (below) reminded me of the massive polling miss in michigan.
I'm not saying this is going to happen, only that it's worth considering - briefly - how Corbyn might pull off a shock victory, despite the polls...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/
1. Very low turnout magnifies the effect of slightly higher turnout in particular groups (esp under-sampled groups). Corbyn might boost turnout in the young and dispossessed (say) but history says you can predict relative turnouts reasonably well.
2. People don't think about US primaries until the show rolls into town. I know it's true people in the UK don't really engage until quite late, but neither Corbyn nor May is an unknown quantity.
3. The candidates tear strips out of each other in the US primaries, for sure. But that tends to mask fundamental similarities and a lot of voters' support for their chosen candidate is shallow. Plenty of Clinton voters would've basically been fine with Bernie as Democrat candidate and vice versa. In the UK, a pretty large percentage of people saying Labour or Tory have no interest in switching.
4. You can vote in the other party's primary in some states, including Michigan. This complicates it by providing a hard-to-model form of tactical voting.
5. Not sure if this was so for Michigan, but a lot of primary races are under-polled, and those polls there are are often under-powered so may very well fail to include a non-trivial number of students or whatever.
0 -
If Labour's polling position keeps deteriorating, I might find myself in a key marginal this time round.Pulpstar said:I'm in a key marginal this time round
0 -
I agree, but the trouble is I'd need to believe the campaign will improve Labour's polling and I can't believe that. So If I think the campaign will do Labour harm then logically things must get worse, which I can't believe either. I'm stuck thinking "it will get worse, but it can't get worse".DavidL said:But they are already incredibly bad for Labour. Worse than this and you are looking at a SLAB 2015 scenario. And I still can't quite believe that.
0 -
Btw I think I can safely say my £100 @ 1/2 Labour in Dagenham is the worst PB bet of the election so far!
Still can't have it going blue. Labour have all 51 council seats, Ukip runner up in 50... Tories 3rd last time 6/5?!?!
Although the talk at my gym, which is in the constituency, is that Lab will lose. The BAMEs aren't registered!0 -
I'm getting to the point where I almost can....DavidL said:
But they are already incredibly bad for Labour. Worse than this and you are looking at a SLAB 2015 scenario. And I still can't quite believe that.glw said:
People thought Ed Miliband was a bit of wally, but they certainly didn't think that him being PM was implausible, they do with Corbyn. And that's before you get on to the stuff that makes Corbyn PM not just implausible but something to be actively avoided.SeanT said:Yes, he's far far beyond Ed Miliband, deep into Unelectable Clown Country. And the Tories haven't even started on the attack ads.
I genuinely can't see how a campaign where Corbyn's views and history are publicised is meant to lead to an increase in support. It seems more likely to me that things will get worse.0 -
Indeed i can see Market Harborogh Engel losingPulpstar said:I'm in a key marginal this time round
0 -
Afternoon, Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
0 -
Has Cruddas announced he is restanding ?isam said:Btw I think I can safely say my £100 @ 1/2 Labour in Dagenham is the worst PB bet of the election so far!
Still can't have it going blue. Labour have all 51 council seats, Ukip runner up in 50... Tories 3rd last time 6/5?!?!
Although the talk at my gym, which is in the constituency, is that Lab will lose. The BAMEs aren't registered!
He might just get you over the line...0 -
Please vote accordingly so our bets come in.AlastairMeeks said:
If Labour's polling position keeps deteriorating, I might find myself in a key marginal this time round.Pulpstar said:I'm in a key marginal this time round
0 -
Do the tories actually want a pile of MPs representing poor northern constituencies?MarqueeMark said:
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.
They'd have to, like, care about making poor peoples lives better.
Jam for the JAMS comes from squeezing the pips of the not-JAMS.0 -
Suggest some very safe English or Welsh Labour seats you think will fall to the May bandwagon and I'll consider taking the other side of the bet.No_Offence_Alan said:
Yes, look at all those historically super-safe Labour seats in Scotland.rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.OldKingCole said:
Friends of ours are VERY politicall;y aware, but resident in the Bucks consituency. They are quite savage about being, effectively, disenfranchied.tpfkar said:
Interestingly I heard a whisper last night of a Lib Dem candidature in Buckingham. No idea if it's based in fact.Slackbladder said:
Having said that I've never understood why the convention is in place, it disenfranchises an entire constituency - why don't the voters matter there or deserve a say? The Buckingham friends I was with last night were pretty peed off about it. Either the speaker should stand on their previous party's manifesto, or there should be an additional political MP for the speaker's constituency
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
There won't be much difference in the monetary outcome but it avoids the 5% commission and the upfront deposit of cash with the bookie.
N.B. If you're interested, it's high £10s maximum and it's rare that I spend all morning or afternoon on this site. I have to go out shortly in fact, so if needed you might have to send me a message.0 -
I'd say somewhere in Liverpool. Liverpool Walton.kle4 said:
Even the triumphal Tories expecting (rather than hoping) for a 200 seat majority would surely think East Ham beyond them. A candidate for being the last labour seat in the country if it came down to that point.stodge said:
To be fair, the LDs did win Ludlow in 2001 (I think) and lost it in 2005 while Monmouth has also gone Labour in the past (1997).rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
Indeed, my constituency, East Ham, would be so far down the Conservative target list as to be subterranean but in their current cocky triumphalist mood, perhaps the Conservatives think they can unseat Mr Timms as well.
Even with a similar 10% swing to the one recorded in Kenton yesterday, Timms would still be around 20,000 ahead.0 -
With hindsight one of the best clues as to what the parties thought was going on in 2015 was where their leadership were deployed. Cameron gunning for Lib Dems and Ed in some of the most marginal Tory seats in the country, way short of what was needed even for largest party. I will be watching that a lot more closely this time.MarqueeMark said:
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.
I expect May and, increasingly, Corbyn to be in Tory targets 51-100. That's looking like the battlefield at the moment (with a secondary battlefront for the Tories in the SW/London against the Lib Dems).0 -
One publication has it as #1 Prix Fixe in NYC. It got a Michelin star in the 2017 listingSeanT said:
That's incredibly cheap, if it's that good - next time in NYC I shall look it up.MTimT said:SeanT said:
There's enough wiggle room there to shift some of it to DefenseBig_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
Sean, did you get my restaurant recommendation for when you're next in NYC. Contra:
http://contranyc.com
Extraordinary combinations of tastes and textures which are not only totally novel and beautifully presented, but actually are delicious. And effective, informal service. 7 courses for $74, and you exit sated but not overfull (certainly not hungry). And, killer, good bread (are hard thing to find, still, in the US)
I'm off to Paris and then the Loire on Monday morning. Let's hope the terrorism is over and food is better.
PS Safe travels. Pakistan beckoning me.0 -
How are the vibes round Chesterfield way ? Which ward are you in for the locals ?bigjohnowls said:
Indeed i can see Market Harborogh Engel losingPulpstar said:I'm in a key marginal this time round
0 -
I'm sure they will stay blue. But the point is that they'll stay that way because that's what the voters want.rural_voter said:
In North Herefordshire, you'd have to be aged over 107 to remember it being Liberal. North Shropshire hasn't changed hands since 1835. I know the first three seats I listed so well that I'd happily bet you at reasonable oddsdavid_herdson said:
They're not disenfranchised. No-one has the right to vote for a winner.rural_voter said:
Any non-Tory voter in North Shropshire, Ludlow, North Herefordshire or Monmouth is disenfranchised! Two of these have been Tory for 100-200 years ... pig with a Blue rosette territory.OldKingCole said:
Friends of ours are VERY politicall;y aware, but resident in the Bucks consituency. They are quite savage about being, effectively, disenfranchied.tpfkar said:
Interestingly I heard a whisper last night of a Lib Dem candidature in Buckingham. No idea if it's based in fact.Slackbladder said:
Having said that I've never understood why the convention is in place, it disenfranchises an entire constituency - why don't the voters matter there or deserve a say? The Buckingham friends I was with last night were pretty peed off about it. Either the speaker should stand on their previous party's manifesto, or there should be an additional political MP for the speaker's constituency
Some Labour seats are even safer as the winner's vote gets into the 70s%, not the 50s%.
Every party starts on zero. If one party wins time and time again, it's because that's what the voters there want - but there's no guarantee that it'll stay that way. There are plenty of examples of once-safe seats that have later changed hands. I expect that this election will give us more such examples.
that they all stay Blue in 2017
that they all stay Blue in 2017 and in 2022 (or whenever the next GE is).
Suggest calculating the odds based on the individual constituency odds this time.
By contrast, voters in the Speaker's constituency gets no such option. I agree with those upthread who suggest that on election, the Speaker should become an MP without constituency, and that a by-election take place in their former seat.0 -
It's a bit of a shock that betting/speculating appears to have been the motive behind the Dortmund bombing.0
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Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....0
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This is where Alastair Meeks scored so highly in 2015. He looked at the Scottish polling and did believe it. But....glw said:
I agree, but the trouble is I'd need to believe the campaign will improve Labour's polling and I can't believe that. So If I think the campaign will do Labour harm then logically things must get worse, which I can't believe either. I'm stuck thinking "it will get worse, but it can't get worse".DavidL said:But they are already incredibly bad for Labour. Worse than this and you are looking at a SLAB 2015 scenario. And I still can't quite believe that.
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There are two questions for me. Well, three:glw said:
I agree, but the trouble is I'd need to believe the campaign will improve Labour's polling and I can't believe that. So If I think the campaign will do Labour harm then logically things must get worse, which I can't believe either. I'm stuck thinking "it will get worse, but it can't get worse".DavidL said:But they are already incredibly bad for Labour. Worse than this and you are looking at a SLAB 2015 scenario. And I still can't quite believe that.
(1) To what extent is Labour's brand still strong enough to overcome Corbyn? Oft referred to as the "core" vote. We know it's not zero - there are many people who will turn out and vote Labour regardless because it's as much a part of their identity as their family name, community, or background - but we also know Corbyn is repellent enough to undermine it.
(2) To what extent will this be about Brexit, rather than the economy and leadership? If the electorate view Corbyn as no threat and detect May is on course for a landslide (see 1) they might feel safer in giving the Lib Dems their support, and there could be a LD surge relatively late in the day, denting Theresa's majority.
(3) Fair Play. The British like fair play. Tory gloating and knocking Corbyn out 20 rounds in a row might make them feel sympathetic to him, and dent the Tory majority.
Am I convinced by much of that?
Not really. Even if it's a low turnout election, all the over 65s will still vote (which is what May needs) so the only question is what size her majority is.
Worst case scenario is probably that she only picks up 15-20 seats (net) from Labour, but drops 30-35 to the Lib Dems, leaving her with something like 315 MPs. Best case is she wipes Labour clean, and the LDs fail to perform, and she has well north of 400 MPs.
Either way, the Tories will be leading the next Government with 95%+ confidence.0 -
Staines caption competition is a photo of chuka dabbing...Can all politicians please stop doing this nosense, you look bloody ridiculous, like a 10 year old trying to be cool
Whatever next, nick palmer doing it?0 -
Probably be best all round if Jeremy is restricted to door-knocking in Islington....AlastairMeeks said:
If Labour's polling position keeps deteriorating, I might find myself in a key marginal this time round.Pulpstar said:I'm in a key marginal this time round
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Have another review if you want - but it will just find that the vast majority is not misspent. People want it cut but that's because they read (mainly lies) about how it is spent.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
I agree with Richard T yesterday - I think he need to have a big look at how, instead of how much.
It will never be popular. The only vaguely popular angle i can see is a big push to lobby/shame other countries into spending 0.7 of their GDP on aid.
Edit - i should add the conservative manifesto last time had some hints of good thinking around advance market commitments, competitions for global public goods etc. No idea if that's popular but it would be a good idea to do more of that.0 -
I can assure you that the Tories in those constituencies do.Pong said:
Do the tories actually want a pile of MPs representing poor northern constituencies?MarqueeMark said:
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.
But rather like the SNP have manoeuvred Labour off the pitch in Scotland, if the Tories do take the Blue Labour vote, accepting that that means they lose some support to the Lib Dems, that then leaves Labour with nowhere to go.0 -
Indeed and how bad a result does it have to be for May to resign ?augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
If she does no better than now or indeed loses seats, would she face an internal leadership challenge ?
If a journalist is going to harangue Corbyn asking if he will resign if he loses, perhaps May should be asked if she is going to resign if her majority is less than 50 ?
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His previous manifesto launch:dr_spyn said:Willie Rennie having more trouble with animals.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/855403466897989633
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/7184004805489418250 -
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
0 -
In oercentage terms,hardly anyone is tribally Labour or Tory any more. They may be subject to inertia, or they may be tribally not-Tory or not-Labour, but that's not the same thing. I reckon well under 5% see their party allegiance as immutable and part of their identity.Casino_Royale said:
There are two questions for me. Well, three:glw said:
I agree, but the trouble is I'd need to believe the campaign will improve Labour's polling and I can't believe that. So If I think the campaign will do Labour harm then logically things must get worse, which I can't believe either. I'm stuck thinking "it will get worse, but it can't get worse".DavidL said:But they are already incredibly bad for Labour. Worse than this and you are looking at a SLAB 2015 scenario. And I still can't quite believe that.
(1) To what extent is Labour's brand still strong enough to overcome Corbyn? Oft referred to as the "core" vote. We know it's not zero - there are many people who will turn out and vote Labour regardless because it's as much a part of their identity as their family name, community, or background - but we also know Corbyn is repellent enough to undermine it.
(2) To what extent will this be about Brexit, rather than the economy and leadership? If the electorate view Corbyn as no threat and detect May is on course for a landslide (see 1) they might feel safer in giving the Lib Dems their support, and there could be a LD surge relatively late in the day, denting Theresa's majority.
(3) Fair Play. The British like fair play. Tory gloating and knocking Corbyn out 20 rounds in a row might make them feel sympathetic to him, and dent the Tory majority.
Am I convinced by much of that?
Not really. Even if it's a low turnout election, all the over 65s will still vote (which is what May needs) so the only question is what size her majority is.
Worst case scenario is probably that she only picks up 15-20 seats (net) from Labour, but drops 30-35 to the Lib Dems, leaving her with something like 315 MPs. Best case is she wipes Labour clean, and the LDs fail to perform, and she has well north of 400 MPs.
Either way, the Tories will be leading the next Government with 95%+ confidence.0 -
In the past we've had three polls with Tory leads of 21% twice and one of 24%.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
The hysteria is understandable. Albeit let's not forget Opinium's poll with a Tory lead of 9%0 -
I have no objection to the principle of a proportion of GDP but it should be a proportion of legal GDP that is taxed etcrkrkrk said:
Have another review if you want - but it will just find that the vast majority is spent well.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May just now 'Foreign Aid budget to stay but how the money is spent will be reviewed'
I agree with Richard T yesterday - I think he need to have a big look at how, instead of how much.
People want it cut but that's because they read (mainly lies) about how it is spent.
It will never be popular. The only vaguely popular angle i can see is a big push to lobby/shame other countries into spending 0.7 of their GDP on aid.
The ridiculous notion a few years ago of re-rating GDP to include the untaxed black economy (eg drug dealing, prostitution etc) and then including this in our obligations was utterly ridiculous. So the more crime is committed the more we have to spend on our criminal justice system to fight it and because the untaxed crime is considered GDP the more we are obligated to spend despite not raising taxes from it? That's absurd.0 -
This kind of analysis is predicated on Labour having a standard kind of seat strategy, polling and doing the basics of a campaign.DavidL said:
With hindsight one of the best clues as to what the parties thought was going on in 2015 was where their leadership were deployed. Cameron gunning for Lib Dems and Ed in some of the most marginal Tory seats in the country, way short of what was needed even for largest party. I will be watching that a lot more closely this time.MarqueeMark said:
The Labour election strategy is going to be fascinating. DO they split - half attack, half defence - with the reasonable expectation that the half on attack is wasted money. If the focus on defence, they have given up any notion of governing. If they do focus on defence, however, where do you spend it? If you spend it on say the fifty most vulnerable seats, that may also prove to be a complete waste - and leave seats 51-100 highly vulnerable.DavidL said:So Corbyn in Swindon today in a seat his party would need to win to be the largest party. How long before he starts playing defence and trying to bolster seats under threat (if the candidates there are willing to let him anywhere near)? My guess would be after the May elections.
Or they may just take the view that he does less damage where it really is not going to matter.
That said, it is equally a problem for the Tories - if they start focussing their spend on targets 51-100, it rather smacks of hubris.
I'm loving this election already.
I expect May and, increasingly, Corbyn to be in Tory targets 51-100. That's looking like the battlefield at the moment (with a secondary battlefront for the Tories in the SW/London against the Lib Dems).
I have seen no evidence since Jezza took over that there is anyone left who is adult enough to do this kind of stuff (or perhaps cares anymore). I suspect they have just lined up a whole string of Momentum-style rallies at various random, mainly safe seats. As long as 300 turn out with a load of placards about NHS privatisation and the whole thing is uploaded to Facebook then everyone can go home happy as the country is clearly heading Corbyn's way.0 -
Tories did well in Kenton East despite it being just 14% white British at the last census. Maybe the Tories won't do as badly in London relative to the rest of the country as expected.
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=13688801&c=kenton+east&d=14&e=61&g=6327864&i=1001x1003x1032x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1492781572118&enc=1&dsFamilyId=25750 -
I think all the polls were done before the Election was called.....DavidL said:
Its true that there is some time for things to change but there have been several opinion polls and they are truly catastrophic for Labour. Average 21% behind, worst case 50% of the Tory vote. In a FPTP election that is beyond bad.augustus_carp said:Forgive me if I am talking out of turn, but from reading the last few threads there seems to be a bit of premature hysteria breaking out. There have been no opinion polls, the betting markets are thin, there's been no news, and we still have another seven weeks of this to go. Yes, I think the Tories are going to win, but until we have a major (new) Labour cock-up, or a bit of real news from anyone else, I think talk of massive majorities and "Tories gain Bootle" is just a bit too sensationalist. There is, so to speak, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.....
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